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Post by gawa on Jul 1, 2024 14:28:59 GMT
All feels a bit overstated to me and as if it's being used by the media to try and capture people's attention and make it into a bigger thing that it is. The Republicans did a pact at the 2022 election forming the union of the right and centre. In the first round National Rally/Union of right and centre got around 30% of the vote which then translated to 25% in the second round. Now National Rally have allied with The Republicans and formed union of the far right. And between them they won around 33% of the first round vote*. Is it really this mammoth surge? * Republicans have also won 6% of vote for candidates which I believe aren't endorsed by National Rally.(i think?) Interesting to see Essemble (Macrons pact) is trying to ally with the National Rally in seats on the second round to keep the left out by suggesting they stand down candidates. Typical centrists always enabling the far right. I agree it is overstated but it's certainly unclear Ipsos after 1st Round put NR at between 230/280 of the required 289 seats Republicans or LR didn't oppose the Centre and Left Coalition but were not part of Government in 2022 There has been a Minority Government in France since NR on their own increased their First Round Vote Share from 19% to 33% which is impressive LR retained the same % as 2022 at 10%. Prior to Election their Leader proposed an Alliance with NR, he was fired the next day and he joined NR as did some others from LR Ensemble are most definitely not contemplating a voting pact with NR. Some in Ensemble members have voiced concerns due to Anti-semitic remarks made by LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Mélenchon said straight after First Round result he would stand down any of his Candidates that finished 3rd to ensure the NFP Alliance prevails over NR Yeah I think I got the Ensemble thing wrong. I'll have to try and identify the reference to it, may have been on their Wikipedia. But when I googled it after posting I seen more news sources suggesting it was pacts to keep the far right out.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 1, 2024 18:53:41 GMT
Spot on and the same will be happening here pretty soon👏👏
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 1, 2024 19:46:08 GMT
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Post by frasier37 on Jul 1, 2024 20:35:48 GMT
Spot on and the same will be happening here pretty soon👏👏 They can blend in with the millions of brits who don't benefit the country so why worry
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Post by musik on Jul 1, 2024 23:37:30 GMT
Do they talk about muslims too? Or is it only about islamists?
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Post by wannabee on Jul 2, 2024 0:52:52 GMT
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jul 2, 2024 1:05:47 GMT
Excellent post. Our grandfather's bravely died fighting the ideology and rhetoric of Le Pen. "Be careful, when a democracy is sick, fascism comes to its bedside, but it is not to inquire about its health." Albert Camus
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Post by musik on Jul 2, 2024 7:57:15 GMT
The four goals the right wing party has in France:
1) The right alliance talk of lowering the retirement age. 2) In addition, the party wants to remove the guaranteed right to citizenship if you are born in French. 3) Border controls are to be tightened 4) and that benefits are conditional on those who have worked for at least five years.
In comparison to Sweden.
1) The Swedish right government talk of an even higher retirement age. 2) We've already done that! However, it requires you have committed a serious crime of some sort. Sweden have also started a win-win project where prisoners have been sent to other countries. So far small scale. 3) We've already done that! Not only at the borders, but also within our country resulting in a prevention of more than 200 bombings and shootings with a potential life waste of thousands of people in just a year, according to the latest police report. Next step told by the Prime Minister is to double the number of security cameras. 4) We've already done that! Benefits are definitely conditional here now. Immigrants don't get that. Yet. It's "funny", to get unemployment money you must have been working a lot lately. And getting social benefits is hard. The number of people getting it is diminishing. For a start you have to borrow from family and friends first. And you must definitely be searching for jobs.
Not much of a difference. However, the left side has 52% and the right (government) side has only 46%, according to polls here now.
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Post by sticky on Jul 2, 2024 8:12:23 GMT
At the end of the day if people’s concerns are ignored, then they’ll vote for a party that they think will listen The only suprise to me is that people are suprised by it
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 2, 2024 9:05:59 GMT
At the end of the day if people’s concerns are ignored, then they’ll vote for a party that they think will listen The only suprise to me is that people are suprised by it I agree. The BBC 6 o'clock news last night was full of "surprise" at the "surprising result", as though "This was totally unexpected". It could be just sensationalism on their part but it happens time and again. It was clear at the time of the referendum that the media are too busy pushing their own views, particularly the gutter press, that they are not in touch with the public. www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-john-humphrys-blasts-biased-bbc-for-failing-to-understand-why-people-in-uk-voted-to-leave-eu-a4242956.htmlThe BBC even delayed release of the referendum result to check it was correct because they could not believe it. www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/02/bbc-delayed-brexit-vote-announcement-reveals-david-dimbleby/The landslide win by Johnson was another surprise to the media. The expression of public opinion varies from country to country, some are more volatile in expressing their views and some countries are more laid back. Macron has warned about "civil war" in France. www.independent.co.uk/voices/france-macron-far-right-civil-war-b2571353.html#:~:text=And%20yet%20dynamic%20Emmanuel%20Macron,round%20of%20which%20is%20today. He could be proved right if all the left and centre parties combine to form a coalition to stop the right. Many who feel let down by the present French government will feel cheated by the "system" stopping change and could take to the streets. Not what Macron wants during hosting the Olympics. Returning to UK public opinion, people are cheesed off with the impacts of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which followed years of austerity after the 2008 financial crash. They will vote for anyone who promises to change things, which Starmer has made the main message of his campaign and Reform are offering. The Tories are offering more of the same so look totally unattractive to most people, particularly the young unless you are a died in the wool conservative. The picture is not very different in France, in fact as a Brexiteer, I would say their economic prospects are worse. www.euronews.com/business/2024/01/23/france-faces-four-major-economic-challenges-in-2024Which ever media you observe there is clear bias from "the messenger" in the way they present "the message".
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Post by frasier37 on Jul 2, 2024 9:29:39 GMT
If only the powers that be listened to the masses and discussed their genuine concerns openly instead of shutting them down as racists, bigots etc
Maybe these fucking moron parties wouldn't build such dangerous popularity.
The world is in reverse
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 2, 2024 10:42:59 GMT
If only the powers that be listened to the masses and discussed their genuine concerns openly instead of shutting them down as racists, bigots etc Maybe these fucking moron parties wouldn't build such dangerous popularity. The world is in reverse Absolutely spot in Fraise
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Post by iancransonsknees on Jul 2, 2024 11:18:44 GMT
If only the powers that be listened to the masses and discussed their genuine concerns openly instead of shutting them down as racists, bigots etc Maybe these fucking moron parties wouldn't build such dangerous popularity. The world is in reverse ![](//storage.proboards.com/800541/thumbnailer/tOAmaHRPAmkgQMRDqugC.png)
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Post by Eggybread on Jul 2, 2024 11:26:13 GMT
If only the powers that be listened to the masses and discussed their genuine concerns openly instead of shutting them down as racists, bigots etc Maybe these fucking moron parties wouldn't build such dangerous popularity. The world is in reverse But the NR are racist bigots.Facts are facts.
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Post by phileetin on Jul 2, 2024 11:26:31 GMT
reminds me of a brilliant tune , shame its introduced by a pervert
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 2, 2024 11:30:23 GMT
She's an out and out Fascist so Crouch clearly adores her.
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Post by salopstick on Jul 2, 2024 11:39:47 GMT
At the end of the day if people’s concerns are ignored, then they’ll vote for a party that they think will listen The only suprise to me is that people are suprised by it that is spot on, hence support for brexit and reform the mainstream parties never acknowledge this and its easier to smear the voters rather than the cause.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 2, 2024 11:41:21 GMT
She's an out and out Fascist so Crouch clearly adores her. The only thing I adore is her plans for migrants and that’s exactly why there’s a right wing uprising across Europe and it’ll be exactly the same here in the coming years. You carry on in your own little world wanking Jezza off👍
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Post by andystokey on Jul 2, 2024 12:29:59 GMT
I think for knicker wetters or fellow travellers it is far too early to claim Victory for Right, Left or even Centre The early results mirror almost exactly what the Polls predicted RN National Rally or National Front as they used to be called 34% the Left Wing Alliance NFP 29% and Macrons Centre Party getting a good kicking at 22% What it means is that unless a Candidate in a Constituency has received 50+% there will be a run off in the 2nd round between Candidates who have received at least 12.5% of the Vote In practical terms this will mean a three way Vote between NR NFP and Macron Candidates Between now and next Sunday there will be a lot of Horse Trading between NFP and Macron Candidates for one or the other to step aside to defeat the NR Candidate Of course this type of Vote Management or persuasion of Voters is not guaranteed success but on balance I find it unlikely that NR will gain enough seats to elect their Candidate as the next Prime Minister of France In any case Macron is going nowhere he will remain as President of France until 2027 It's a bit like in US when you have a Democratic President and a Republican Senate Majority, it's not great Government because it stifles progression and fosters partisanship, anyway I think NFP and Macrons Group will gain a small Majority. We'll see. would you say that this is reason to avoid PR ?
Well 34% of a 60% turnout is only 20% of the population so the message should be; If you don't want to be run by a minority party get out and vote.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 2, 2024 12:37:15 GMT
She's an out and out Fascist so Crouch clearly adores her. The only thing I adore is her plans for migrants and that’s exactly why there’s a right wing uprising across Europe and it’ll be exactly the same here in the coming years. You carry on in your own little world wanking Jezza off👍 Utter nonsense mucka, utter nonsense. You've clearly learned nothing from history have you?
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2024 12:39:26 GMT
At the end of the day if people’s concerns are ignored, then they’ll vote for a party that they think will listen The only suprise to me is that people are suprised by it that is spot on, hence support for brexit and reform the mainstream parties never acknowledge this and its easier to smear the voters rather than the cause. I agree with that although I suspect we disagree about the cause. I think the cause is capitalism and nearly always is. The growth of parties like Reform and the FN in France, the AfD in Germany etc always happen whenever any economic downturn takes effect. But we mustn't blame capitalism because the capitalists, ie those who make a shitload of money out of it, don't really want us to look too closely at what might be at the root of poverty, migration, inequality and division. So look elsewhere for a blame outlet. In such circumstances, the focus is always deflected onto whichever out-group is available. Currently, it's immigrants, with a smattering of 'woke' and 'trans' issues thrown in for good measure. A few decades back it was West Indians and Asians, in the 30s it was Jews. You can keep going for as long as you like. The real tragedy is that people never seem to realise that the target changes but the tactics remain the same. The out-groups may change and the parties and leaders who exploit the hatred may change but it's only ever a re-hash of what's happened before, many times over. (That's not an argument for communism before anyone leaps to that daft conclusion).
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 2, 2024 12:55:17 GMT
The only thing I adore is her plans for migrants and that’s exactly why there’s a right wing uprising across Europe and it’ll be exactly the same here in the coming years. You carry on in your own little world wanking Jezza off👍 Utter nonsense mucka, utter nonsense. You've clearly learned nothing from history have you? What I’ve learnt is people like yourself are utterly clueless
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Post by salopstick on Jul 2, 2024 12:56:18 GMT
that is spot on, hence support for brexit and reform the mainstream parties never acknowledge this and its easier to smear the voters rather than the cause. I agree with that although I suspect we disagree about the cause. I think the cause is capitalism and nearly always is. The growth of parties like Reform and the FN in France, the AfD in Germany etc always happen whenever any economic downturn takes effect. But we mustn't blame capitalism because the capitalists, ie those who make a shitload of money out of it, don't really want us to look too closely at what might be at the root of poverty, migration, inequality and division. So look elsewhere for a blame outlet. In such circumstances, the focus is always deflected onto whichever out-group is available. Currently, it's immigrants, with a smattering of 'woke' and 'trans' issues thrown in for good measure. A few decades back it was West Indians and Asians, in the 30s it was Jews. You can keep going for as long as you like. The real tragedy is that people never seem to realise that the target changes but the tactics remain the same. The out-groups may change and the parties and leaders who exploit the hatred may change but it's only ever a re-hash of what's happened before, many times over. (That's not an argument for communism before anyone leaps to that daft conclusion). fair point but until those who can make change actually do, its rinse and repeat. what are these people who feel left behind so turn to reform are to do. I know loads of people who normally vote tory are moving to reform because they dont see starmer as a decent change, for the same reason some will still vote tory the one time change was on the ballot he fucked it up
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Post by musik on Jul 2, 2024 12:57:50 GMT
If only the powers that be listened to the masses and discussed their genuine concerns openly instead of shutting them down as racists, bigots etc Maybe these fucking moron parties wouldn't build such dangerous popularity. The world is in reverse Precisely. If they hadn't been so naive, learned the maths, had used logic and common sense they would never have let this development happen.
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Post by frasier37 on Jul 2, 2024 13:16:53 GMT
If only the powers that be listened to the masses and discussed their genuine concerns openly instead of shutting them down as racists, bigots etc Maybe these fucking moron parties wouldn't build such dangerous popularity. The world is in reverse Precisely. If they hadn't been so naive, learned the maths, had used logic and common sense they would never have let this development happen. You paint a dark picture, but I'd guess you're not far off with AI .....inevitable something that could do so much good in the world will be used for nothing more than profit and war
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 2, 2024 13:24:04 GMT
Utter nonsense mucka, utter nonsense. You've clearly learned nothing from history have you? What I’ve learnt is people like yourself are utterly clueless Ignorance and inaction led to the last Fascist uprising. Try not to be a contributor to the next one mucka...the last one really didn't end well for them.
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Post by Northy on Jul 2, 2024 13:29:37 GMT
Excellent post. Our grandfather's bravely died fighting the ideology and rhetoric of Le Pen. "Be careful, when a democracy is sick, fascism comes to its bedside, but it is not to inquire about its health." Albert Camus What is making the people of that democracy feel it is sick and why they should turn to the direction they are?
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Post by Paul Spencer on Jul 2, 2024 13:57:01 GMT
Excellent post. Our grandfather's bravely died fighting the ideology and rhetoric of Le Pen. "Be careful, when a democracy is sick, fascism comes to its bedside, but it is not to inquire about its health." Albert Camus What is making the people of that democracy feel it is sick and why they should turn to the direction they are? As history as shown us numerous times, when the electorate feel downtrodden, hopeless, poor, despatate, cheated, lacking a voice etc. then elements of that electorate will sometimes turn to false prophets, prophets who have absolutely no intention of alleviating those issues but will pray on people's (legitimate) anxieties, to push their own poisonous agenda. And when these conditions materialise, far right ideology is given the oxygen to breathe and very quickly, if we're not vigilant, fascism can begin to rear it's ugly head once again. When people are happy with their lot, when public services and utilities deliver, when they personally feel prosperous and feel like they and their families are not forgotten by the elites of society, then the lies of the far right find it very difficult to establish a foothold in our political discourse. If people are relatively content with their lives, they really couldn't give a toss, when somebody comes along to tell them about the bogey man they should be worried about. The issue of course, is when people AREN'T content and it is (sadly) then, that the bogey man character in fascist rhetoric becomes attractive to them.
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Post by musik on Jul 2, 2024 14:38:01 GMT
Precisely. If they hadn't been so naive, learned the maths, had used logic and common sense they would never have let this development happen. You paint a dark picture, but I'd guess you're not far off with AI .....inevitable something that could do so much good in the world will be used for nothing more than profit and war Explanation to readers of this post. I wrote about AI as well, claiming it will lead to total anarchy, but erased it apparently just before frasier replied. Whatever country starting mass murder (=war) or whatever ultra rich person who only has as the main goal in life to become even richer, I will never understand. Last one I heard of was Elon Musk who will put in porn in X wherever it's possible in the flow, just to cash out more.
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Post by musik on Jul 2, 2024 14:45:59 GMT
National Rally want to remove the guaranteed citizenship if you are born in France.
Under what circumstances? 🤔
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