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Post by Gods on Jun 30, 2024 9:27:21 GMT
Round 1 today. The far right hoping to make history.
I saw on the news they are boarding up shops in Paris. Could it all go up like a tinder box?
We're coming in to summer rioting season in Europe so it normally doesn't take much if the weather's good and the evenings are long.
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Post by str8outtahampton on Jun 30, 2024 9:55:53 GMT
Round 1 today. The far right hoping to make history. I saw on the news they are boarding up shops in Paris. Could it all go up like a tinder box? We're coming in to summer rioting season in Europe so it normally doesn't take much if the weather's good and the evenings are long. I know lots of people who live in France, and in fact was there when Macron called the election - clearly in response to the European results. Extremely risky strategy and the indications are it won't pay off. Obviously my contacts are éveillés, champagne-buvants, gauchistes, Tartuffistes, flocons de neige. But they're very worried about the future, including the possibility of civil unrest. |
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Post by Gods on Jun 30, 2024 10:17:24 GMT
Round 1 today. The far right hoping to make history. I saw on the news they are boarding up shops in Paris. Could it all go up like a tinder box? We're coming in to summer rioting season in Europe so it normally doesn't take much if the weather's good and the evenings are long. I know lots of people who live in France, and in fact was there when Macron called the election - clearly in response to the European results. Extremely risky strategy and the indications are it won't pay off. Obviously my contacts are éveillés, champagne-buvants, gauchistes, Tartuffistes, flocons de neige. But they're very worried about the future, including the possibility of civil unrest. Nice characterisation of your contacts, I can well imagine 😆 |
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jun 30, 2024 15:12:14 GMT
Shitty neoliberal governments often get replaced by the extreme right…..
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 30, 2024 17:03:27 GMT
The French media are shouting about how high the turn out by 5 pm.
You'd think they would realise people would want to vote early today so they can watch the football on tele this evening.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jun 30, 2024 19:18:00 GMT
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Post by andystokey on Jun 30, 2024 19:33:14 GMT
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jun 30, 2024 19:36:23 GMT
Right wing politics sweeping Europe
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Post by andystokey on Jun 30, 2024 19:42:21 GMT
Right wing politics sweeping Europe With the US too we are in uncharted territory, last seen prior to WW2. |
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jun 30, 2024 19:45:21 GMT
Right wing politics sweeping Europe With the US too we are in uncharted territory, last seen prior to WW2. It was always going to happen sooner or later. You can’t expect entire nations to keep taking the shit that’s been going on for the last 50 plus years |
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Post by andystokey on Jun 30, 2024 19:52:29 GMT
With the US too we are in uncharted territory, last seen prior to WW2. It was always going to happen sooner or later. You can’t expect entire nations to keep taking the shit that’s been going on for the last 50 plus years Rampant nationalism and fear of foreigners never ends well. Let's hope the same outcomes are not repeated. I've lived through the cold War and nuclear drills and a mainland bombing campaign by the IRA and nothing ever felt as dangerous as where we are now in the world. |
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jun 30, 2024 19:54:44 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jun 30, 2024 21:57:02 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2024 22:26:01 GMT
With the US too we are in uncharted territory, last seen prior to WW2. It was always going to happen sooner or later. You can’t expect entire nations to keep taking the shit that’s been going on for the last 50 plus years Unprecedented wealth in Western Europe for the majority of the people living there? |
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Post by musik on Jun 30, 2024 23:09:47 GMT
How can anyone be surprised?
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2024 23:14:08 GMT
How can anyone be surprised? It surprises me so many fall for the lies they peddle and can’t see through the bullshit. |
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Post by spitthedog on Jun 30, 2024 23:35:40 GMT
Real echos of 30s Germany in this.
Frightening consequences if these people get in power.
Fantastic result for Putin though.
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Post by spitthedog on Jun 30, 2024 23:53:15 GMT
How can anyone be surprised? It surprises me so many fall for the lies they peddle and can’t see through the bullshit. It's happened before in Europe. When people start feeling vulnerable and convinced that they are the victims, then these kind of parties and opportunistic leaders tend to become their best friends. This is the new politics of victimhood stoked up by the right. As stated previously it partly a consequence of horrible neo-liberal governments like the one probably on its way out. But it's a big price to pay and will quite probably lead to turmoil, conflict and misery. |
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Post by wannabee on Jul 1, 2024 1:59:25 GMT
I think for knicker wetters or fellow travellers it is far too early to claim Victory for Right, Left or even Centre
The early results mirror almost exactly what the Polls predicted
RN National Rally or National Front as they used to be called 34% the Left Wing Alliance NFP 29% and Macrons Centre Party getting a good kicking at 22%
What it means is that unless a Candidate in a Constituency has received 50+% there will be a run off in the 2nd round between Candidates who have received at least 12.5% of the Vote
In practical terms this will mean a three way Vote between NR NFP and Macron Candidates
Between now and next Sunday there will be a lot of Horse Trading between NFP and Macron Candidates for one or the other to step aside to defeat the NR Candidate
Of course this type of Vote Management or persuasion of Voters is not guaranteed success but on balance I find it unlikely that NR will gain enough seats to elect their Candidate as the next Prime Minister of France
In any case Macron is going nowhere he will remain as President of France until 2027
It's a bit like in US when you have a Democratic President and a Republican Senate Majority, it's not great Government because it stifles progression and fosters partisanship, anyway I think NFP and Macrons Group will gain a small Majority. We'll see.
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Post by musik on Jul 1, 2024 10:05:35 GMT
Someone on tv said only 67% statistically of the people in France will vote. It seems low to me.🤔 Could it be true? The outcome however will depend on if the in the middle voters will show some flexibilty, according to the experts.
It's interesting to see what different political parties want.
The coalition on the left side in France put the minimum wage as one of their main goals, and lowering the retirement age is another one, Introducing free school meals and to allow the undocumented to obtain residence permits more easily is also on their list.
The right alliance talk of lowering the retirement age as well. In addition, the party wants to remove the guaranteed right to citizenship if you are born in French. Border controls are to be tightened and that benefits are conditional on those who have worked for at least five years.
This list is compared in our Swedish daily papers with the Swedish government, called sometimes in the media even now The Tidö Parties. The media says there are similarities, but here we talk about raising the retirement age even further (they've just done it once).
In Macron's center alliance, they want to abolish the penalty discount for young people, introduce social media locks and an age limit on mobile phones.
An important field, but to me very small goals, but that's what the media mention about Macron. The focus is on the wing sides.
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Post by Northy on Jul 1, 2024 10:12:10 GMT
It was always going to happen sooner or later. You can’t expect entire nations to keep taking the shit that’s been going on for the last 50 plus years Unprecedented wealth in Western Europe for the majority of the people living there? For a very small minority who keep getting richer, whilst the rest have to keep paying taxes and the youth have no chance of scraping enough together for a house as they are too busy paying sky high rents which is paying off someone else's mortgage for them to get richer. |
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Post by phileetin on Jul 1, 2024 10:50:02 GMT
I think for knicker wetters or fellow travellers it is far too early to claim Victory for Right, Left or even Centre The early results mirror almost exactly what the Polls predicted RN National Rally or National Front as they used to be called 34% the Left Wing Alliance NFP 29% and Macrons Centre Party getting a good kicking at 22% What it means is that unless a Candidate in a Constituency has received 50+% there will be a run off in the 2nd round between Candidates who have received at least 12.5% of the Vote In practical terms this will mean a three way Vote between NR NFP and Macron Candidates Between now and next Sunday there will be a lot of Horse Trading between NFP and Macron Candidates for one or the other to step aside to defeat the NR Candidate Of course this type of Vote Management or persuasion of Voters is not guaranteed success but on balance I find it unlikely that NR will gain enough seats to elect their Candidate as the next Prime Minister of France In any case Macron is going nowhere he will remain as President of France until 2027 It's a bit like in US when you have a Democratic President and a Republican Senate Majority, it's not great Government because it stifles progression and fosters partisanship, anyway I think NFP and Macrons Group will gain a small Majority. We'll see.
would you say that this is reason to avoid PR ?
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Post by atillathehoneybee on Jul 1, 2024 10:56:18 GMT
Right wing politics sweeping Europe Except here unfortunately... |
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Post by gawa on Jul 1, 2024 11:56:04 GMT
All feels a bit overstated to me and as if it's being used by the media to try and capture people's attention and make it into a bigger thing that it is.
The Republicans did a pact at the 2022 election forming the union of the right and centre.
In the first round National Rally/Union of right and centre got around 30% of the vote which then translated to 25% in the second round.
Now National Rally have allied with The Republicans and formed union of the far right. And between them they won around 33% of the first round vote*. Is it really this mammoth surge?
* Republicans have also won 6% of vote for candidates which I believe aren't endorsed by National Rally.(i think?)
Interesting to see Essemble (Macrons pact) is trying to ally with the National Rally in seats on the second round to keep the left out by suggesting they stand down candidates.
Typical centrists always enabling the far right.
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Post by wannabee on Jul 1, 2024 12:08:19 GMT
I think for knicker wetters or fellow travellers it is far too early to claim Victory for Right, Left or even Centre The early results mirror almost exactly what the Polls predicted RN National Rally or National Front as they used to be called 34% the Left Wing Alliance NFP 29% and Macrons Centre Party getting a good kicking at 22% What it means is that unless a Candidate in a Constituency has received 50+% there will be a run off in the 2nd round between Candidates who have received at least 12.5% of the Vote In practical terms this will mean a three way Vote between NR NFP and Macron Candidates Between now and next Sunday there will be a lot of Horse Trading between NFP and Macron Candidates for one or the other to step aside to defeat the NR Candidate Of course this type of Vote Management or persuasion of Voters is not guaranteed success but on balance I find it unlikely that NR will gain enough seats to elect their Candidate as the next Prime Minister of France In any case Macron is going nowhere he will remain as President of France until 2027 It's a bit like in US when you have a Democratic President and a Republican Senate Majority, it's not great Government because it stifles progression and fosters partisanship, anyway I think NFP and Macrons Group will gain a small Majority. We'll see.
would you say that this is reason to avoid PR ?
No because France doesn't have a PR Voting System it has the same Single Constituency Voting System as UK except it is done over two rounds eliminating Candidates after first round if they don't reach a threshold. |
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 1, 2024 12:23:34 GMT
This shows the result of the first round: www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/07/01/french-election-results-winners-and-losers-in-parisWhat happens now is the parties start wheeling and dealing before the next round. Similar to Clegg dumping LibDem manifesto policies to keep Cameron in power and austerity. It's all pretty academic as Macron retains power as President and can overrule the assembly. He got just 30% of the first round of the Presidential elections but finished up winning and having far too much power than should be vested in a single individual. www.wsj.com/articles/macron-government-bypasses-frances-national-assembly-to-pass-pension-overhaul-26089695I much prefer a system where the government, Parliament, judiciary, armed forces etc hold allegiance to a constitutional monarchy. A far better system that keeps anyone from holding too much power and the monarch can be changed by parliament if then need arose, which is unlikely as Charles is an excellent bloke. Some people say " he's not my king" but actually is and cares about you and society generally and the environment a lot more than our politicians. The beauty of monarchy is that they are above politics and effectively prevent any politician having too much power. Some people don't like the concept of monarchy, but politicians are far more dangerous. It is important to control them, not for them to control us. Hence I support FPTP voting. The danger of other systems is you get a Putin, Hitler, Tito, Mussolini, Franco, and we had O Cromwell. Beware of handing power to politicians, particularly foreign ones. www.france24.com/en/europe/20230619-macron-ally-causes-stir-with-proposal-to-abolish-presidential-term-limit |
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Post by wannabee on Jul 1, 2024 13:43:01 GMT
All feels a bit overstated to me and as if it's being used by the media to try and capture people's attention and make it into a bigger thing that it is. The Republicans did a pact at the 2022 election forming the union of the right and centre. In the first round National Rally/Union of right and centre got around 30% of the vote which then translated to 25% in the second round. Now National Rally have allied with The Republicans and formed union of the far right. And between them they won around 33% of the first round vote*. Is it really this mammoth surge? * Republicans have also won 6% of vote for candidates which I believe aren't endorsed by National Rally.(i think?) Interesting to see Essemble (Macrons pact) is trying to ally with the National Rally in seats on the second round to keep the left out by suggesting they stand down candidates. Typical centrists always enabling the far right. I agree it is overstated but it's certainly unclear Ipsos after 1st Round put NR at between 230/280 of the required 289 seats Republicans or LR didn't oppose the Centre and Left Coalition but were not part of Government in 2022 There has been a Minority Government in France since NR on their own increased their First Round Vote Share from 19% to 33% which is impressive LR retained the same % as 2022 at 10%. Prior to Election their Leader proposed an Alliance with NR, he was fired the next day and he joined NR as did some others from LR Ensemble are most definitely not contemplating a voting pact with NR. Some in Ensemble members have voiced concerns due to Anti-semitic remarks made by LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Mélenchon said straight after First Round result he would stand down any of his Candidates that finished 3rd to ensure the NFP Alliance prevails over NR |
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 1, 2024 13:50:43 GMT
How can anyone be surprised? It surprises me so many fall for the lies they peddle and can’t see through the bullshit. And have little awareness of the history of where Europe goes when the far right takes control. |
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Post by lordb on Jul 1, 2024 13:59:28 GMT
This shows the result of the first round: www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/07/01/french-election-results-winners-and-losers-in-parisWhat happens now is the parties start wheeling and dealing before the next round. Similar to Clegg dumping LibDem manifesto policies to keep Cameron in power and austerity. It's all pretty academic as Macron retains power as President and can overrule the assembly. He got just 30% of the first round of the Presidential elections but finished up winning and having far too much power than should be vested in a single individual. www.wsj.com/articles/macron-government-bypasses-frances-national-assembly-to-pass-pension-overhaul-26089695I much prefer a system where the government, Parliament, judiciary, armed forces etc hold allegiance to a constitutional monarchy. A far better system that keeps anyone from holding too much power and the monarch can be changed by parliament if then need arose, which is unlikely as Charles is an excellent bloke. Some people say " he's not my king" but actually is and cares about you and society generally and the environment a lot more than our politicians. The beauty of monarchy is that they are above politics and effectively prevent any politician having too much power. Some people don't like the concept of monarchy, but politicians are far more dangerous. It is important to control them, not for them to control us. Hence I support FPTP voting. The danger of other systems is you get a Putin, Hitler, Tito, Mussolini, Franco, and we had O Cromwell. Beware of handing power to politicians, particularly foreign ones. www.france24.com/en/europe/20230619-macron-ally-causes-stir-with-proposal-to-abolish-presidential-term-limitYou don't need a monarchy to have a on politician as head of state |
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Post by werrington on Jul 1, 2024 14:05:33 GMT
Right wing politics sweeping Europe It never ends well One thing we learn from history is we don’t learn from history |
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