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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 25, 2023 19:26:09 GMT
A rumour has started, saying that Prigozhin took nuclear weapons from the nuclear Veronezh-45 facility. That would certainly explain a few things, including why he was able to confidently withdraw without reprisals.
We appear to be in Bond villain territory now.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 24, 2023 7:53:24 GMT
Putin has just been on Russian TV, and to my mind he looked scared and weak. He's backed his own military over the Wagner Group, and I would not be in the least bit surprised if he was forced to come out against Wagner. Edit: The clip I saw was earlier than the recent formal address.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 24, 2023 7:47:06 GMT
Putin has just been on Russian TV, and to my mind he looked scared and weak. He's backed his own military over the Wagner Group, and I would not be in the least bit surprised if he was forced to come out against Wagner.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 20, 2023 7:19:13 GMT
I was also at the DM concert, and it was my first gig this century. After what I thought was a slow start, it just kept building and building. It was great to be a show that's considered to be a stand-out event.
We parked a mile away (for free), and drove back which appears to have been a good decision as we missed the traffic/parking chaos. We walked past one of the official car parks where at least one row of cars had been double parked, so they would have been stuck for a long time.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 19, 2023 10:09:21 GMT
This season is a write-off. Fair play to Max and Red Bull, both team and driver have pulled off a blinder. I don't see them being in a proper fight until the next rules change unless the FIA make a similar technical rule change to hobble Red Bull as they did in 2021 to Mercedes. Red Bull is the only team that fully understands the aerodynamics of their car, so other teams will start to close the gap, but they will always be playing catch up. It would be good to see Perez replaced with a driver that can give Max a run for his money, but I can't see that happening.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 15, 2023 6:22:44 GMT
I'm surprised at how critical I was of the Masons at the start of this post in 2018. My views on the Masons has softened since becoming a friend of a Mason who is far from secretive about it.
My prevailing view is that it's a tedious social club for ex forces men that enjoy ritual and get a buzz from holding a rank.
I also suspect that what goes on in the provinces, is comparatively harmless.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 11, 2023 9:06:45 GMT
I've not dropped in to see what Jon Parshall has been saying on Facebook for a while, here's his report from yesterday.
Ukraine Update. Standard Disclaimer: WWII Historian using analogs from that conflict to analyze this one. TL;DR: Heavy fighting, and we won't know the outcome until we know.
First off, though: the dam. Okay, we don't have definitive proof yet who blew the thing up, but the preponderance of evidence points strongly to the east. Just for the record, you can't blow up a dam with artillery, or mortars, or crap like that. A dam that big is enormously strong, designed to hold back millions of tons of water pressure. Demolishing it is a non-trivial exercise typically requiring a crapton of explosives placed in exaaaaaactly the right location. Russia has had physical control of the structure for a year now. It is *possible* that poor maintenance led to a structural collapse, but those things more often occur at the ends of the span, not in the middle. So, again, the evidence seems to point to Moscow.
The thing I find baffling is that blowing the thing doesn't actually do much of any lasting military value. Yes, there's been awful flooding, and the ecological damage is immense. And the Russians are shelling evacuation points, and are being complete bastards, because of course they are. But the flooding is already receding, *and* it washed away significant sections of Russia's forward defense lines and mines in the process, with Russian units clearly surprised and scrambling out of their entrenchments to head to the rear when the water started going up. So, this flood is a very transient obstacle to the Ukrainians, should they decide to cross the river in force. The whole thing just feels panicky and dumb. But then again, we've seen plenty of that over the past year or so.
Meanwhile, in western Zaporizhia, there's heavy fighting going on. And I'll be damned if I have a prognostication as to the outcome at this point. Yes, there have been much-ballyhooed shots of Ukrainian Leopards and Bradly IFVs knocked out by mines and arty. But a couple things worth noting. Most of those shots seem to show "mobility kills," i.e. a Bradley got its track knocked off by a mine, and the crew baled out. But the vehicle itself may well be recoverable and repairable. So, it's a little early in the game for the Russians to be exulting over this (although their information space has been going nuts for the past couple days, crowing that the Ukrainians have been completely defeated everywhere.)
Here's what we *don't* know: how badly the Russians are being hurt in the process. And we won't know the answer to that until something dramatic happens, i.e. either the Ukrainians being completely repulsed, or the Russians being forced into a major withdrawal.
Here's the WWII analog I'm reaching for today: 2nd Battle of el Alamein, in October 1942. Seminal British victory, yeah? The battle that put Montgomery's name in the history books for all time! Turning point in the desert war! This was all true... in the end. But it was also a complete dumpster fire to start with. The Germans and Italians were heavily dug in behind immense minefields (sound familiar?) Monty's grand assault on the first night broadly failed to achieve any of its objectives. British tank losses to German mines and AT guns were absolutely *murderous*. The result was days of costly, frontal head-bashing as the Brits methodically ground ahead, taking piecemeal gains. By about day three, the folks back in London (Churchill in particular) were sweating bullets. Because the initial signs were not good.
But hidden from Allied eyes, the German and Italian formations were slowly being torn to pieces under the weight of British artillery and air power. Their cohesion was coming apart. By the end of a week of this, they were hanging on by their teeth--*none* of which was readily apparent to Monty or his men. Even with complete air and artillery supremacy, it still took Monty twelve days to chew through Rommel's defenses, defeat the German counterattacks, and finally get British armor through the defensive belts and out into the open desert beyond. When the Axis collapse *did* happen, though, it was sudden and catastrophic. Rommel's Panzerarmee simply fell apart.
Takeaway message: We're on about Day 4 of what is likely to be a months-long campaign. We don't really know what's goin' on. And things like drone footage of a Uke tank column getting shot up--that's war through a soda straw. We don't know what's happening in the big picture. It may turn out later that that soda straw glimpse *is* important. Or not. We just don't know.
And yeah, that makes *me* crazy, too.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 6, 2023 14:33:55 GMT
Despite being a breach of the Geneva Convention that supposedly makes destruction of dams a war crime, this was precipitated by the RAF`s dams raid in 1943. Wasn't those dams being used to make heavy water from for their atomic bomb programme ? I'm pretty sure that the heavy water thing was in Norway.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jun 3, 2023 8:47:22 GMT
Opposition party politician calls for Putin to be removed on the Kremlin approved State TV channel NTV, say Russia needs to rebuild relations with Europe It’s happening… It might be, but it may not. Putin has a history of funding anti-Putin dissent as a means to divide and control the population using cognitive dissonance. The recent drone attacks in Moscow could be another example.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 29, 2023 17:23:39 GMT
Belarus has been undergoing Russification for some time, and undergoing Putin's take on the EU's aim of "ever closer union". I've heard it said that Lukashenko is at something of a crossroads right now, and has a difficult choice to make as to whether he allows Belarus to become absorbed by Russia, or to go against Putin.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 25, 2023 21:49:05 GMT
It's worth saying that Royal Mail and the Post Office are separate companies. I have a good relationship with my local Post Office, and he's as pissed off with Royal Mail as anyone else.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 17, 2023 13:13:16 GMT
I was looking forward to Imola, especially to see if the upcoming improvements to the Mercedes car were going to work. Looking at some of the scenes there, the local authorities have much more pressing things to do than host a car race.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 14, 2023 14:26:09 GMT
Do you know what, I rather suspect it was an editorial decision more than anything else. With such a short slot they probably decided they couldn't include both a Lennon song AND a Beatles song and elected to go with Imagine. It was odd though to represent the Liverpool song book with contributions from Mel C, Atomic Kitten, Sonia and a song written by Rodgers & Hammerstein, whilst ignoring the likes of the Beatles, the Bunnymen, Elvis Costello, OMD and Frankie amongst others. On a minor point of detail, the Atomic Kitten song (Whole Again) was actually co-written by Andy McCluskey of OMD. Another fun fact, in my mind they're singing, you can fill my hole again. I'm thinking about earthworks, obvs.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 14, 2023 8:30:05 GMT
Had a massive feature on music from Liverpool including a couple of song I’ve never heard but don’t include anything by the Beatles- is that shit or just a copyright thing? The committee had bought, Back In The USSR, and then realised it would not go down too well. Their budget was blown, so in stepped Sonia.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 14, 2023 6:50:16 GMT
I'm not gay or owt, by I really enjoyed the show last night. It was the first time I've watched it since the 80's, and we dragged the two teenage boys in to watch it.
Great night as a family, and I was shocked about how mant songs I actually liked.
Finland was not the best song, but it was the best performance, so I'm glad their huge public vote added real tension to the scoring.
Good to see that the public vote for Norway put her in a more deserving position.
The Czechia song really grew on my on the night.
Belgium's reworking of the Take Twat version of Re-light My Fire, did nothing for me.
I thought France deserved to do better, her voice was epic.
Despite little love for it, I thought Serbia had a really good song, but it was not suited for the occasion.
Moldova's song was more than decent to me.
The girl from Israel, can dance all night for me.
Sweden was a worthy winner, although she was a bit shout (like man others on the night).
Finally, I'd like to have a go on the night's real winner, Hannah Waddingham, is she 7 foot tall?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 21, 2023 13:45:25 GMT
All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg. Speaking ahead of a meeting of the Ukraine defence contact group at Ramstein air base in Germany, he also told reporters that, once the war in Ukraine ends, Kyiv must have "the deterrence to prevent new attacks". He said that the main focus is now to ensure the country prevails against Russia. So does that mean Ukraine becomes a member during or after this conflict? During means instant world war, as I’m sure most know by now… It means that NATO is keeping it's options open.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 19, 2023 6:33:23 GMT
I believe that it's a serious risk to refuse a substantial and reasonable offer in such cases, and that a final payout can be reduced as a result.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 18, 2023 6:36:02 GMT
It appears that whenever a head of state meets Xi, they say something Pro China, you can add Brazil and France to the list.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 13, 2023 11:10:11 GMT
No tail
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 11, 2023 6:32:09 GMT
A friend of mine was groomed and abused as teenage girl by someone in a position of religious power. Fortunately she has (largely) recovered and has gone on to live a full life having become what I would describe as a free spirit.
The Dalai Lama is someone that one would expect her to be drawn to, however, she always had a bad feeling about him.
Make of that what you will.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 7, 2023 10:31:27 GMT
Just played it for the first time. My score was nothing to shout about, but I managed to score with Dogging, so that's a win as far as I'm concerned.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 4, 2023 9:51:03 GMT
I worked for Toys 'R' Us back in the day, and when I was working at the Leicester store in the early 90's, I had to deliver a child's bike to his house. That in itself sounds pretty dull, however, in the 7 years I worked for Geoffrey The Giraffe, in several stores, we never delivered anything to anyone, as it was a blanket policy at the time. When I challenged the request that came down from a higher power, I was told, JFDI.
It was my first experience of privilege in society.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Apr 2, 2023 22:08:03 GMT
Need to see some clarification as to when races are red-flagged. The re-starts were both great and farcical at the same time.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 25, 2023 6:41:54 GMT
It's not a victory for common sense, it's nothing more than the authorities acting on recent and probably definitive scientific studies.
Their previous position which was trying to find a way balancing the playing field, was based upon earlier but flawed scientific opinion and gender politics.
Now that it's been proven that pubity has a lasting effect upon performance, athletic authorities have to act upon this understanding.
Talking about common sense in this complex matter is unhelpful at best.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 22, 2023 11:09:54 GMT
It would appear cheating last year had absolutely zero ill effects on the ability of Red Bull to run in a race. Two depressingly predictable races so far The only highlight for me this year is seeing the Aston Martin breakthrough, they've really caught Merc and Ferrari with their pants down.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 20, 2023 23:24:50 GMT
I suspected that the situation with Credit Suisse was worse than we were led to believe, however, I did not see a $500 billion (compared to its stated 2022 value) write down coming. On the other hand, I no longer view Saudi's reticence to invest more capital as spurious. The net effect on potential government arms spending in the Western world is no less at risk, as it's unlikely that Credit Suisse is the only major bank that's been acting recklessly. A partial banking collapse would be good news for Russia. Saudi can afford to take the hit, and it would gain more influence as it will have the funds to bail out banks and countries. When Credit Suisse recently said they had found "Material Weaknesses" in its Financial Reporting this was at the end of years of scandals, fines and bad investment decisions the writing was on the wall I'm not sure where your $500Bn figure is from CS Market Cap was $23Bn in 2021 and dropped to $11Bn in 2022. Its highest Market Cap was $82Bn in 2006 The arranged marriage between UBS and CS was a shotgun wedding the alternative was as you said last week Nationalisation An interesting aspect of the deal was to place shareholders above AT1 Bondholders wiping out their $17Bn. This will be in Court for years This move obviously made the Saudi's less disgruntled as they get back 40% of their money What is dangerous in this move is there are $275Bn of these AT1 Bondholders, a legacy of 2008 crash, with European Banks whose lawyers are going to be poring over the fine print of their contracts It is likely to place some level of scrutiny on Deutsche Bank, BNP etc As I said earlier UBS was a somewhat reluctant suitor Chairman Kelleher has been consistently denying a takeover. I suspect CS may become a Domestic Bank. Certainly its investment arm will be wound down. The more aggressive investment culture at CS will be purged for the core business principles of UBS I'd expect at least 50% of the combined 10,000 UK workforce to be gone shortly The US Banks although unconnected to CS problems are far from out of the woods. The US Regional Banks problems are somewhat self inflicted by lack of oversight and regulation Trumps decision in 2018 to amend Obama's 2010 Dodd-Frank was crazy which increased many regulations from $50Bn to $250Bn Ironically SVP CEO was one of the most prominent Lobbyists and Cheerleaders for the increase as SVB was approaching the $50Bn threshold. The ammendment didn't preclude the Fed from investigating but the useless Jerome Powell was asleep at the wheel on this as well as dismissing the risk of inflation at its earliest signs and failing to increase interest rates quickly enough and then probably too aggressively The $500+ bn figure is from CS published figures of their 2022 assets, rather than market cap, and their assets have proven to be anything but!
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 20, 2023 7:24:24 GMT
Nationalisation is perhaps too strong a word, but the net effect is the same, especially seeing that what in essence it's a 10% cash injection of its inflated former value. In reality, he injection is going to be much higher, and as you know, the loan will have onerous strings attached. It's hugely disturbing that the financial system can find itself in this position, and again it's going to be the little people that foot the bill. To be fair Richie I agree with a lot of what you say and if contagion and poor investor sentiment set in anything is possible Credit Suisse have spun off their investment arm under the First Boston name and are apparently going back to its core business catering to very high net worth people Kind of ironic on this thread as its estimated they hold between $150/200Bn deposits of 1100 Wealthy Russians Whether their restructuring is successful the jury is out. Credit Suisse is one of the 30 Banks deemed too big to fail so I'm sure the Gnomes would do something As I said I wouldn't rule out a merger with UBS I suspected that the situation with Credit Suisse was worse than we were led to believe, however, I did not see a $500 billion (compared to its stated 2022 value) write down coming. On the other hand, I no longer view Saudi's reticence to invest more capital as spurious. The net effect on potential government arms spending in the Western world is no less at risk, as it's unlikely that Credit Suisse is the only major bank that's been acting recklessly. A partial banking collapse would be good news for Russia. Saudi can afford to take the hit, and it would gain more influence as it will have the funds to bail out banks and countries.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 16, 2023 20:32:09 GMT
Credit Suisse has now effectively been nationalised, and more banks are under pressure, namely Unicredit in Italy and Societé General in France. If these banks need to be bailed out (too large to fail), then Governments are going to have less money to spend on arms to Ukraine. Another knock-on effect might be that interest rates are going to stop rising, and may start going down as we saw with the last banking crash. That's a complete over exaggeration Swiss National Bank have agreed to provide a $50Bn loan facility to calm jitters which it seems to have done with share price rebounding To be fair Credit Suisse has been a basket case for the last 2 years beset with one scandal after another. I wouldn't be surprised if it ultimately merged with UBS if the latest 3 year restructuring plan started last October doesn't work The Saudis declined to invest further, their holding 9.9% of Credit Suisse if above 10% further regularity obligations kick in Unicredit is suffering the same issues as SVB I.e. over exposure to the Bond Market when interest rates are rising (The same thing almost collapsed the UK Pension Industry during Trussenomics) Societe Generale like Credit Suisse embroiled in scandals Once investor sentiment is lost it's hard to recover, the jury's out. Like SVB and Sovereign quite a few Mid Size US Banks are also in trouble They are not subject to the same regularity scrutiny or rules, a big mistake which the Biden administration is scrambling to correct. This should be a lesson to those who want to relax Banking Regulations in UK after Brexit, will it? I think most Western Countries have seen the folly of under-investment in Defence in recent past and are committed to increasing of course if money supply becomes tighter other Services could be effected This conversion is certainly taking place among Republicans in US Nationalisation is perhaps too strong a word, but the net effect is the same, especially seeing that what in essence it's a 10% cash injection of its inflated former value. In reality, he injection is going to be much higher, and as you know, the loan will have onerous strings attached. It's hugely disturbing that the financial system can find itself in this position, and again it's going to be the little people that foot the bill.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 16, 2023 9:21:38 GMT
Keep an eye on the banking sector, there is evidence of the situation with the Silicone Valley Bank collapse being used to scare depositors from other US banks. Credit Suisse is in trouble, and its major investor, Saudi Arabia is refusing to help on what may be spurious grounds. The issue here with Saudi, is that they have just become very publicly friendly with China. To join a few more dots, China will not want to see another collapse of the banking sector, however, some added financial instability will cause the purse strings to tighten with the West's support in Ukraine, thus giving Russia a bit of a hand, as well as helping to make the conditions better for the removal of Biden. Credit Suisse has now effectively been nationalised, and more banks are under pressure, namely Unicredit in Italy and Societé General in France. If these banks need to be bailed out (too large to fail), then Governments are going to have less money to spend on arms to Ukraine. Another knock-on effect might be that interest rates are going to stop rising, and may start going down as we saw with the last banking crash.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 15, 2023 19:40:49 GMT
Keep an eye on the banking sector, there is evidence of the situation with the Silicone Valley Bank collapse being used to scare depositors from other US banks. Credit Suisse is in trouble, and its major investor, Saudi Arabia is refusing to help on what may be spurious grounds. The issue here with Saudi, is that they have just become very publicly friendly with China.
To join a few more dots, China will not want to see another collapse of the banking sector, however, some added financial instability will cause the purse strings to tighten with the West's support in Ukraine, thus giving Russia a bit of a hand, as well as helping to make the conditions better for the removal of Biden.
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