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Post by UsAndThem on Sept 15, 2022 21:24:07 GMT
The arch wind-up merchant has reeled a lot in with this thread Our top scorer last season is wank and lets play Delap at RWB, the stats dont back me up but I just ignore them fuck me I’d say he’s been reeled in if you read it back.
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Post by iamstokie on Sept 16, 2022 6:50:34 GMT
Find me one fan who genuinely would prefer to see their team kick and hoof their team to success rather than pass, outpace and out skill their opponents. They don’t exist. What does exist are pragmatists and idealists (some of whom are also incredibly patronising) I can’t agree. We have loads. March for one
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 16, 2022 7:53:12 GMT
Was really unhappy with the appointment of Megson He won me over with his character dull? Anything but Jordan was by far the dullest They were all dull the point was some of them were just dull and others were dull and obnoxious. If they don’t think football is an entertainment product they ought to be paid a similar amount as a hockey coach, where do they think their vast wages come from.
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Post by tachyon on Sept 16, 2022 8:42:24 GMT
Tachyon, any chance of Dioufs xG stats when he played for us? Yes, sure. He deserves alot of credit. His first season he was genuinely elite. Got on the end of lots of high quality chances and also was fairly creative for a player who was primarily a scorer. Here's his shot maps by season and xG summary. Attachment DeletedPer 95 and quality tailed off a bit after that, but he was still mostly a useful PL level contributor. In the PL he scored 23 non penalty goals from 26.3 xG, A slight under performance, but distribution of chances also matter (he was limited to some low quality chances in his dozen or so wing back outings in 2017/18) and 23 goals was the third most likely goal total based on his xG in the PL. There's a 26% chance an average PL finisher scores fewer than 23 goals from MBD's chances, so he was a decent and certainly not a poor finisher. Nice to see him smacking the goals in after his messy Championship seasons.
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 16, 2022 9:23:33 GMT
Tachyon, any chance of Dioufs xG stats when he played for us? Yes, sure. He deserves alot of credit. His first season he was genuinely elite. Got on the end of lots of high quality chances and also was fairly creative for a player who was primarily a scorer. Here's his shot maps by season and xG summary. View AttachmentPer 95 and quality tailed off a bit after that, but he was still mostly a useful PL level contributor. In the PL he scored 23 non penalty goals from 26.3 xG, A slight under performance, but distribution of chances also matter (he was limited to some low quality chances in his dozen or so wing back outings in 2017/18) and 23 goals was the third most likely goal total based on his xG in the PL. There's a 26% chance an average PL finisher scores fewer than 23 goals from MBD's chances, so he was a decent and certainly not a poor finisher. Nice to see him smacking the goals in after his messy Championship seasons. There you go folks proof there is no conspiracy against Jacob Brown stats can make the clumsiest looking footballers sound pretty good.
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Post by UsAndThem on Sept 16, 2022 9:39:53 GMT
Tachyon, any chance of Dioufs xG stats when he played for us? Yes, sure. He deserves alot of credit. His first season he was genuinely elite. Got on the end of lots of high quality chances and also was fairly creative for a player who was primarily a scorer. Here's his shot maps by season and xG summary. View AttachmentPer 95 and quality tailed off a bit after that, but he was still mostly a useful PL level contributor. In the PL he scored 23 non penalty goals from 26.3 xG, A slight under performance, but distribution of chances also matter (he was limited to some low quality chances in his dozen or so wing back outings in 2017/18) and 23 goals was the third most likely goal total based on his xG in the PL. There's a 26% chance an average PL finisher scores fewer than 23 goals from MBD's chances, so he was a decent and certainly not a poor finisher. Nice to see him smacking the goals in after his messy Championship seasons. Thanks for that. Actually slightly surprised but he’s still more than 3 goals under xG whereas Brown was over 3 more goals than xG. Just trying to understand the second to last paragraph. If there’s a 26% chance that an average PL finisher scores fewer than 23 goals from MBD’s chances, does that mean there’s a 74% chance they score the same or more? Wouldn’t that suggest he was underperforming and in the lower percentile bracket of finishers in the PL? Or have I misinterpreted?
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Post by tachyon on Sept 16, 2022 10:13:03 GMT
Thanks for that. Actually slightly surprised but he’s still more than 3 goals under xG whereas Brown was over 3 more goals than xG.
Just trying to understand the second to last paragraph. If there’s a 26% chance that an average PL finisher scores fewer than 23 goals from MBD’s chances, does that mean there’s a 74% chance they score the same or more?
Wouldn’t that suggest he was underperforming and in the lower percentile bracket of finishers in the PL? Or have I misinterpreted? [/quote] If you simulate every goal attempt for MBD in the PL, you get a distribution like this. If you add up the percentage likelihood that an average PL player scores 24 or more goals, you get 67%. So it's more likely a player scores more than MBD. But MBD's clumsy 23 goals might be just down to random variance. You can only start to become more certain that he was an under-performing finisher if the red bar for actual goals scored falls to around 18 or fewer goals.
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Post by UsAndThem on Sept 16, 2022 10:27:22 GMT
Thanks for that. Actually slightly surprised but he’s still more than 3 goals under xG whereas Brown was over 3 more goals than xG.
Just trying to understand the second to last paragraph. If there’s a 26% chance that an average PL finisher scores fewer than 23 goals from MBD’s chances, does that mean there’s a 74% chance they score the same or more?
Wouldn’t that suggest he was underperforming and in the lower percentile bracket of finishers in the PL? Or have I misinterpreted? If you simulate every goal attempt for MBD in the PL, you get a distribution like this. Attachment DeletedIf you add up the percentage likelihood that an average PL player scores 24 or more goals, you get 67%. So it's more likely a player scores more than MBD. But MBD's clumsy 23 goals might be just down to random variance. You can only start to become more certain that he was an under-performing finisher if the red bar for actual goals scored falls to around 18 or fewer goals. [/quote] Yep makes more sense now. Far above my pay grade though 😂 thanks. What would be Browns comparison compared to the average championship finisher?
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Post by tachyon on Sept 16, 2022 11:01:15 GMT
What would be Browns comparison compared to the average championship finisher? JB for Stoke in the Championship. 20 non penalty goals from 17.1 xG from 147 goal attempts over 6847 minutes. Clinical finisher, but you can't rule out a bit of positive variance. So he's probably an average finisher on a bit of a hot streak.
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Post by lordb on Sept 16, 2022 11:14:02 GMT
Was really unhappy with the appointment of Megson He won me over with his character dull? Anything but Jordan was by far the dullest They were all dull the point was some of them were just dull and others were dull and obnoxious. If they don’t think football is an entertainment product they ought to be paid a similar amount as a hockey coach, where do they think their vast wages come from. I'm talking about their personalities As it happens Jordan was the dullest and his football was dull Megson very much not dull and given he was working with as bad a squad as we ever had he at least went 3 up top and tried to win games
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 16, 2022 11:44:44 GMT
They were all dull the point was some of them were just dull and others were dull and obnoxious. If they don’t think football is an entertainment product they ought to be paid a similar amount as a hockey coach, where do they think their vast wages come from. I'm talking about their personalities As it happens Jordan was the dullest and his football was dull Megson very much not dull and given he was working with as bad a squad as we ever had he at least went 3 up top and tried to win games He wasn't really with us that long was he I'm probably judging his football elswhere as well. I thought he was a very dull manager football wise very much the type of manager we've nearly always seemed to go for throughout my life.
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Post by misterj on Sept 16, 2022 14:46:48 GMT
Couldn’t tell if the title was a p*** take but to be honest any of the following did better for Stoke - workrate wise, goals wise, value-for-money-wise than a certain ‘Crouchy’ who a LOT of Stoke fans seem to have a LOT of time for. (Greenhoff, Bertie Biggins, Peter Thorne, Stein’o, Kenwynne, Ricardo, Jacob Brown…… the list goes on and on!!) IMO of course!
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Sept 16, 2022 15:13:43 GMT
Couldn’t tell if the title was a p*** take but to be honest any of the following did better for Stoke - workrate wise, goals wise, value-for-money-wise than a certain ‘Crouchy’ who a LOT of Stoke fans seem to have a LOT of time for. (Greenhoff, Bertie Biggins, Peter Thorne, Stein’o, Kenwynne, Ricardo, Jacob Brown…… the list goes on and on!!) IMO of course! Has Crouchy boned your wife or summat?
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 16, 2022 15:33:35 GMT
Couldn’t tell if the title was a p*** take but to be honest any of the following did better for Stoke - workrate wise, goals wise, value-for-money-wise than a certain ‘Crouchy’ who a LOT of Stoke fans seem to have a LOT of time for. (Greenhoff, Bertie Biggins, Peter Thorne, Stein’o, Kenwynne, Ricardo, Jacob Brown…… the list goes on and on!!) IMO of course! Has Crouchy boned your wife or summat? Why does he have to have done something against you for you not to rate him. I thought he was shit before we signed him and never changed my mind once he was here, in fact I probably liked him even less as a Stoke player. Just not my sort of player, slow and weak as pish.
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Sept 16, 2022 15:51:35 GMT
Has Crouchy boned your wife or summat? Why does he have to have done something against you for you not to rate him. I thought he was shit before we signed him and never changed my mind once he was here, in fact I probably liked him even less as a Stoke player. Just not my sort of player, slow and weak as pish. It was just a question pissy pants.
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Post by dirtclod on Sept 16, 2022 16:48:32 GMT
AN just said in his presser re: Brown "I don't think Jacob's out-and out-position being as a wing-back but unfortunately for him at the moment I think he's the best guy suited to do the job." Our manager has picked up on this immediately.
Meanwhile Jacob Brown just does what he's asked to do for the team. Again. What's not to like?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2022 18:40:29 GMT
I wouldn't go as far as describing him as a RWB , but he doesn't deserve to be pigeon holed by some as ...runs around a lot but a bit of a rubbish footballer
So far this season he's picked the ball up on the right wing v Blackpool ( i think ) , held off a challenge and laid it off to smallbone, paused slightly to have a quick look round then sprinted diagonally across the pitch to be in exactly the right place at the right time for tymon to play him in . Then just passed the ball into the net , cool as you like . A clever bit of football.
V hull, he's picked the ball up very wide right, so wide part of the ball is off the pitch ( though some of it is on , not fully over the line) . He's held off the challenge to try and make him give away a throw in and can see the defender is blocking him going past him on his right foot .He knows the defender is forcing him inside onto his left foot ( and let's face it he's unlikely to do anything special with his left foot) .
So he's turned back onto his left peg looking to draw a foul off the defender. The defender has bought it , brown has gone down, and wilmot has scored from the free kick! He's refused to give a throw in away and just to put a cherry on it, won us a goal scoring free kick, despite turning into his weaker foot . It's clever play.
He is smarter than he's given credit for.
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Post by kustokie on Sept 16, 2022 23:52:09 GMT
Subjective player assessment is also subject to scrutiny. You want two things. Reliability. Everyone comes to broadly the same conclusion. Obviously that's not going to happen on here for a variety of reasons. But you can sort of test the second requirement. V alidity. Do the conclusions of, for want of a better word, the Oatcake scouting staff tally with an independent, objective rating system for that player. A variety of objective ratings for last season for player 9393 (JB's Opta ID) ranked him pretty highly, between 3rd - 6th best Stoke player. Eye test ratings for strikers very often coincides with a numerical approach, (much more than defenders). So if you see a poor player, but the numbers say he's around the 3rd to 6th best player on the squad, you have to come up with some pretty compelling and extensive reasons why there's a disconnect. "Isn't"Pretty conclusive. But wait for it…… What’s that coming over the hill…..is it a Bayern!?? He seems to have given up. Is he waving the white flag? This board in general and this thread in particular are all about facts and opinion. The facts are beyond dispute. Jacob Brown was last season’s top scorer. In my opinion, one which is held by many, we would have been relegated without his contribution. End of story?
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Post by iglugluk on Sept 16, 2022 23:59:23 GMT
Brown should be played as a centre forward using him as a wingback is ridiculous and reminds me of the attempted and completely misguided decision to convert Diouf. His willingness should not be confused with his ability. think his best position is on the right of a forward 3 Yes you're probably right, actually.. not wingback though.
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Post by iglugluk on Sept 17, 2022 0:05:33 GMT
Has there ever been one you didn't until they were sacked? I can’t really recall a manager I genuine disliked even after they got sacked. I disliked Cotterill after he deserted and I wasn’t keen on Jordan. But I can’t say I disliked them. Now a fair few were absolute shite but they were just bad at the job. I dunno, Rowett comes to mind.
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Post by Picasso on Sept 17, 2022 0:10:41 GMT
I think everyone agrees Brown should be centre forward, but I’m not sure that playing him at RWB is ridiculous… In context, he’s just been filling in at that position, as AN has eluded to himself.
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Post by J-Roar on Sept 17, 2022 6:13:26 GMT
It’s not: People have different tastes in football. Find me one fan who genuinely would prefer to see their team kick and hoof their team to success rather than pass, outpace and out skill their opponents. They don’t exist. What does exist are pragmatists and idealists (some of whom are also incredibly patronising) I honestly think they do exist. Some supporters would rather win ugly.
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Post by Picasso on Sept 17, 2022 7:57:16 GMT
One of the great things about football is that it is has many diverse elements to it. Being ‘good’ at football doesn’t just mean technically, but can also mean positionally, reading of the game, aerially, tackling, strength, understanding etc.
Any team that has more of the silky qualities and is successful, will still have the ‘uglier’ (dare I call them skills) in their armoury. I’m sure almost everyone wants to win with technical skill, pace, passing etc. But most appreciate the need for other components.
The best / most successful teams are made up of all components and can adapt to whomever their opposition is. I.e, they can win ugly if needed.
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Post by leicspotter on Sept 17, 2022 10:56:21 GMT
The Moody Blues knew this all along, it's just A Question of Balance
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Post by kustokie on Sept 17, 2022 11:56:11 GMT
I can’t really recall a manager I genuine disliked even after they got sacked. I disliked Cotterill after he deserted and I wasn’t keen on Jordan. But I can’t say I disliked them. Now a fair few were absolute shite but they were just bad at the job. I dunno, Rowett comes to mind. I never cared much for Hughes from the start and was glad to see the back of him. Sacking him earlier and bringing in a genuine premier league standard manager instead of caretaker might have kept us up.
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Post by kustokie on Sept 17, 2022 11:59:56 GMT
One of the great things about football is that it is has many diverse elements to it. Being ‘good’ at football doesn’t just mean technically, but can also mean positionally, reading of the game, aerially, tackling, strength, understanding etc. Any team that has more of the silky qualities and is successful, will still have the ‘uglier’ (dare I call them skills) in their armoury. I’m sure almost everyone wants to win with technical skill, pace, passing etc. But most appreciate the need for other components. The best / most successful teams are made up of all components and can adapt to whomever their opposition is. I.e, they can win ugly if needed. The greatest NFL coach of all time the late, great Vince Lombardi of the Green Bay Packers said “winning isn’t everything it’s the only thing”. I doubt many Packer fans would disagree. Mind you they were exciting to watch as well, which didn’t hurt.
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