Play-Offs. Out of reach?

[Deleted]

Looking back at the points for the 6th placed team over the previous 3 seasons, it ranges from 70pts (lowest) to 77pts (highest), with 74pts being enough 3 years ago.

The current 6th place team (Boro) are on 45pts from 28 games. Pro-rata that out for the remainder of the season and it gives a final tally of 74 points (the same number of the 6th place team in the 2018/19 season).

We're currently on 39 points from 28 games (an average of 1.39pts per game). In order to get to 74 points come the end of the season, we need 35 points from the remaining 18 games (pretty much bang on 2pts per game).

That's the same kind of return that Fulham are currently on, sitting top with 58pts from 28 games. Most agree that Fulham have been head and shoulders above every other team in the league so far, so that gives an indication of what's required to get that kind of return.

Even with all the changes, new signings and optimism thrown up from the January window, I can't for the life of me see that kind of transformation over the latter part of the season.

We'll probably need 10 wins and 5 draws from the last 18 games. That's a very big ask.

[thebet365]

It would take something special to get us in the playoffs. Sadly I don't see that happening, 9-12th I think is what we're heading for.

[stokecitydom]

The play offs are most definitely not out of reach. However it needs a drastic change of form. We need to string a run of wins together, something like 4 wins in the next 6 to give us a chance.

It’s unlikely, but with the attacking options we have & if we manage to click, then you never know.

[biglad180]

i would just go all out attack now with Bidace , Maja,brown, and campbell,all up top ,powell just behind them,DWP, to come on second harf,nothing to lose now

[dirtygary69]

If we can get to 60 points with 7 to 8 games left it could certainly be very interesting. That means 21 points from the next 10 games, which doesn't look impossible when you look at the fixtures. We need to beat Swansea if anything is going to happen though. And that comes from giving Wigan a beating too. Let's get some confidence going.

[dirtygary69]

Feb 1, 2022 13:49:20 GMT biglad180 said:

i would just go all out attack now with Bidace , Maja,brown, and campbell,all up top ,powell just behind them,DWP, to come on second harf,nothing to lose now

And this, sort of. If it's 0-0 with 20 minutes left, a point is probably not much use. Get at the opposition with the attacking talent we now have. It certainly needs to go to a "we'll score more than you" approach I would say.

[leesandfordstoupe]

Feb 1, 2022 13:49:20 GMT biglad180 said:

i would just go all out attack now with Bidace , Maja,brown, and campbell,all up top ,powell just behind them,DWP, to come on second harf,nothing to lose now

I think from MON you’re more likely to see him shoot himself on live tv. He’s not even gun never mind gung-ho!

[theonlooker]

It's a big ask but not impossible - equally, it shouldn't be demanded from here.  We have made hard work of it because of our recent poor run.  A couple of defeats in the next month or so will pretty much kill it dead.

To stand any chance we have to front end our form now and hope it bounces through to the end of the season.

[jezzascfc]

We'd need top two form to sneak 5th or 6th. With the players at our disposal, if most stay fit and on form, it is not impossible, just highly unlikely.

I am resigned to an 8th-11th finish, with a hope for some semblance of consistent form developing, Powell getting a new deal, Campbell rediscovering his best form, Maja being a hit, scoring 8-10 goals, and signing permanently in the summer and big 'Arry raring to go come August. Then we could have a real run at it next season.

[The Drunken Communist]

Looking at the table right now I see West Brom sat in 5th, played 29, points 45. We've played 28 & have 39 points. So if we win our game in hand we'd be just 3 points off 5th place with 17 games left to play. The play-offs are very much alive & should 100% be what we're aiming for.

[SamB_SCFC]

Not out of reach, but we'd need to go on a barnstorming run and I just don't think we're capable of it. We've thrown too many points away and will continue to do so.

[scfc75]

We won’t make it. I’ve seen nothing this season to suggest that we’ll now go on a run of form equivalent to a top 2 side, and that’s what we need.

[boskampsflaps]

10 wins is a massive ask for Powell, in reality I think the playoffs were gone some time ago.

[neddy]

One game at a time….

[wrighter]

out of reach !!
Nxt season possible

[PotterLog]

Ain’t gonna happen this year, and I now have very little confidence it’ll happen next year either

[pmjh]

If you're looking at points per game WBA are 6th and on for just over 71 points so we would need 72. that would still be difficult, but not impossible. Most of the teams near the top have had a good run at some stage. That's what we need.

[stokie223]

Looking at where the club was when he came in, and the fact we are seriously hampered by FFP, is it not testament to the job O'Neill is doing that we are able to even have this discussion?

Genuinely I am no staunch defender of his - but I see steady progress. Just about.  He's had to save a sinking ship, improve league position, clear out deadwood, shop in the bargain basement (he's been allowed to sign and sign and sign but it would be disingenuous to say he's had a lot of money to spend. None of these transfers would have gone through if it wasn't financially beneficial for the club in its current state) and save some money on wages in the process. By and large I would argue that he's achieving those things. 

There's a lot that I've seen which can be improved upon without question, but for me he gets until the end of next season at least. 

The squad, IMO, is in a much better position than it was pre-January and if we're even in with a sniff of being around the playoff places come the end of the season then that's enough to be given another year I think. I really like some of the additions we've made, and they've been shrewd too. He should be praised for that.  

I'm sure we could all agree the club probably needed bombing and starting again - which to me it looks like he is trying to do - but then some won't afford him the time to do so. If we were threatened with relegation then I could understand some of the 'O'Neill out' shouts, but overall - on balance - I think we're doing just about okay. 

[leesandfordstoupe]

Bang on the money. I'm not a fan and think he'll ultimately be too cautious a manager to produce a team that scores enough goals to win enough games to get us promoted automatically and I just can't see the fascination with the play offs and why they seem like the ultimate ambition for the club and many of our fans, shit small time mentality.

[jokker]

Our away form to some degree would justify regarding us as outsiders for promotion. It definitely can be achieved, because there are so many other teams that are inconsistent, and it would be possible to profit from that were we able to find consistency ourselves.

It's our home form that's blocking us from finding that consistency.

[Staffsoatcake]

If we can get a good run going, who knows, we could just sneak a place.

[ohbottom]

Anyone in the top half of the table could get in the mix with a decent run - as the likes of QPR, Blackburn and M'boro have done.

Whether our new look team can gel enough to do it - big ask I think.

[Trouserdog]

It's a big ask, but while it's still possible we have to give everything we can to try and make it.

I don't think we will now, but if we finish top 10 (which I think we can manage) it still shows further progress and represents a decent season.

[RF10]

If we go on a decent run anything is possible.

[Deleted]

Feb 1, 2022 16:41:30 GMT Trouserdog said:

It's a big ask, but while it's still possible we have to give everything we can to try and make it.

I don't think we will now, but if we finish top 10 (which I think we can manage) it still shows further progress and represents a decent season.

Would you have a wager on it TDog?

13/2 for us to make the odds (which seems short). 28s for us to win the play offs.

That means if you put a fiver on us to win the play offs, you lose a fiver.

[RF10]

Add the the above, based on previous years in general getting 76 point would get you there.

With 18 games left if we replicated our form on the first 18 which had us 4th it would get to 70 points. We need to be getting 37 points to make it happen.

The home form is what will decide and from this point must go on a decent winning run to give belief.

[apb1]

Win our next couple and the whole dynamic changes in terms of the points we then need and our momentum. I just can't feel confident that we will. My hopes were raised by the Fulham game then we were gash in our next two.



We need Powell at his best 90% of the time, and a couple of the forwards (Maja and JPB are my main hopes) to hit some form. A returning and confident Bursik would help too, Bonham is not convincing.

As others have said let's just go for it in every game a la Richie Barker 1.0 (before POMO) and at least we can enjoy watching the games. If we, Blackburn, Cov, Boro and QPR are in the mix with 4 games to go, then it makes OUR last 4 pretty epic.

[sealion100]

Win all the home games .....Barnsley and Posh away....... !

[sealion100]

Throw the ruddy kitchen sink at the opposition at all the home games .... should get the fans on side at least

[leesandfordstoupe]

Feb 1, 2022 17:26:47 GMT sealion100 said:

Throw the ruddy kitchen sink at the opposition at all the home games .... should get the fans on side at least

It would but it's not in his nature, far too cautious.