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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 9, 2024 18:11:32 GMT
Great news for Big Nige and Super Ricky Tice Why do you think that? I think it might be an issue for them. Badenock and Jenrick will be desperately appealing to reform voters with their stance on immigration, crime and “war on wokeness”. The message will be the same and Reforms stance as being something different will lose its appeal because the Tories will have a louder voice - although Farage will continue to shout. It's an issue for both Reform and the Conservatives, now. The reason seasoned political observers are shocked at what the Conservative MPs have done is because, rather than set themselves up for a charge to power in 2030, they've instead set themselves on a direct collision course with Reform. Both parties are now both clearly encircling their wagons around the same voter demographic whilst the Tories seek to lose their more moderate centre-right voter base to Labour and /or the Lib Dems. Sheer stupidity from the Tories. |
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Post by PotteringThrough on Oct 9, 2024 18:20:51 GMT
Why do you think that? I think it might be an issue for them. Badenock and Jenrick will be desperately appealing to reform voters with their stance on immigration, crime and “war on wokeness”. The message will be the same and Reforms stance as being something different will lose its appeal because the Tories will have a louder voice - although Farage will continue to shout. It's an issue for both Reform and the Conservatives, now. The reason seasoned political observers are shocked at what the Conservative MPs have done is because, rather than set themselves up for a charge to power in 2030, they've instead set themselves on a direct collision course with Reform. Both parties are now both clearly encircling their wagons around the same voter demographic whilst the Tories seek to lose their more moderate centre-right voter base to Labour and /or the Lib Dems. Sheer stupidity from the Tories. This is why I think it’s an issue for reform. The moderates that voted Tory are more likely to go the other way and vote Lib Dem/another or probably just not bother voting. Those that voted for reform in protest will probably return to the Tories with this lurch further right. They may take a few seats off Labour if voters do return but as you say they’re both swimming in the same voter pool now, to each of their detriment. |
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Post by RedandWhite90 on Oct 9, 2024 18:44:20 GMT
What a choice.
And whilst it's very easy to point and laugh, our parliamentary system requires strong opposition.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 10, 2024 1:33:08 GMT
Great news for Big Nige and Super Ricky Tice Why do you think that? I think it might be an issue for them. Badenock and Jenrick will be desperately appealing to reform voters with their stance on immigration, crime and “war on wokeness”. The message will be the same and Reforms stance as being something different will lose its appeal because the Tories will have a louder voice - although Farage will continue to shout.
Because there are millions of middle of the road Tories who are always going to vote Tory (regardless of the fact that their party has lurched to the right) rather than switch to the Lib Dems.
Come the time, they might not have the numbers to defeat Labour on their own and in that situation, it could be provide an opportunity for Farage and Tice to become king makers and actually ultimately find themselves sitting on the front bench of the party in power.
The irony being, that Cameron called the referendum in the first place, to save his party from UKIP decimating their vote share, only to find, that just a few years later, in order to hold power, it would have to ultimately go into a coalition with Reform.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 10, 2024 5:59:26 GMT
Great news for Big Nige and Super Ricky Tice Why do you think that? I think it might be an issue for them. Badenock and Jenrick will be desperately appealing to reform voters with their stance on immigration, crime and “war on wokeness”. The message will be the same and Reforms stance as being something different will lose its appeal because the Tories will have a louder voice - although Farage will continue to shout. What's the point of voting for Badenock and dodgy Jenrick when you could vote for Farage? Farage is a far better politician than both of those shite options. The Conservatives have as good as crashed as a serious party here trying to play on his ground |
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Post by frasier37 on Oct 10, 2024 6:58:56 GMT
Great news for Big Nige and Super Ricky Tice Why do you think that? I think it might be an issue for them. Badenock and Jenrick will be desperately appealing to reform voters with their stance on immigration, crime and “war on wokeness”. The message will be the same and Reforms stance as being something different will lose its appeal because the Tories will have a louder voice - although Farage will continue to shout. because anyone that follows their kind of message will probably follow the most believable and I don't think that's a tory. All of them are poison...including farage. World needs to wake up and change instead of rinse and repeat |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 6:59:22 GMT
Yes - unless Labour respond and do a deal with the other centre/centre left parties. If they go it alone against a Tory/Reform alliance they are toast under FPTP. Thing is I think Starmer's instincts would be to go it alone. only the snp can help them - and that aint happening. the greens wont have anything to do with them It will be a long time before the libs ever compromise with labour or conservatives again That isn't true. There is an organisaton called Compass that has been co-ordinating co-operation between the Lib Dems, the Greens and Labour for many years now and by standing aside for each other in local elections they have successfully maximised the centre left vote and ousted the Tories in a number of areas. The sticking point in the general election was Starmers refusal to adopt PR which the party voted for at the conference on 2023. The party least likely to form a pact with Labour is the SNP because Labour is for the Union and a vote at least would be a condition of any pact. The condition of any pa t with the Geens and the Lib Dems would be the adoption of PR which is what the majority of members want anyway - it's Starmer who is the issue there but if Reform and the Tories were to co-operate he'd be an idiot not to ditch his opposition to PR and form a centre left alliance. |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 7:20:33 GMT
Not sure that centrism delivers ‘right wing” politics - it merely lets incumbents encompass ideas from both (I.e. Blair & Brown’s left wing social policy was married with centrist economic policies). Obviously, those on the left are going to think centrism is right wing, just as much as those on the right believe the opposite - which is evidently precisely the place the Conservatives find themselves this afternoon. Incidentally, I don’t think the parliamentary Labour Party has been “left wing” as such probably since about 1987. Since (and encompassing) Kinnock, Labour has been largely of the centre-left. Although the grass-roots Labour Party is more left wing than its parliamentary partner, it’s still largely centre-left in mind and body outside of the Trade Unions. I don't think centrists vote for centrist parties to get right wing policies by the way. But left wing parties like Labour taken over by those who aren't left wing, it leaves a gaping hole when it comes to choice. And as a result the only left wing opposition we get is that on some social issues but when it comes to economics theyre all incredibly similar. And I think that's how some like it and why such an effort was made to get rid of Corbyn. Because corbyn was economically left and there was a very strong appetite from his policies. Now starmer is in there's barely a difference when it comes to economy. Same old neoliberalism shite. I agree with most of what you say though about labour not having a true left wing leader as PM for quite some time. Corbyn and Smith were both left wing leaders since 1989 imo. As Thatcher once said: "I think my greatest achievement is Tony Blair. He has made the Labour Party the party of the center." Never a truer word spoken. I do agree there is a need for a credible socialist party but I do wish the left would just stop bitching about Labour and get their fingers out and create one. When in power Labour has always been centerist and it's always had its most left wing leaders when not on power and they have always failed in a general election. Kinnock and Blair effectively killed off Labour as a genuinely socialist party in the 80s and Momentum tried and failed to take the party back. Just get over it. Incidentally the economic options aren't just socialism and neoliberalism, there's also a centre ground interventionist capitalism that rejects socialist economic policy, accepts capitalism as a central plank of economic policy but will intervene for the common good and mitigate the tendency of neoliberalism to usher in extremes of wealth and poverty. Labour's economic policies (like the Tory centerists and the Lib Dems) are in this area, they are not neoliberal capitalists. Actually if you look at Reforms macro economic policies you will see they are also interventionist - more so than the current Labour Party. It's the Tory right who are the real neoliberals - it's their social policies that they have in common. |
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Post by wagsastokie on Oct 10, 2024 7:22:13 GMT
only the snp can help them - and that aint happening. the greens wont have anything to do with them It will be a long time before the libs ever compromise with labour or conservatives again That isn't true. There is an organisaton called Compass that has been co-ordinating co-operation between the Lib Dems, the Greens and Labour for many years now and by standing aside for each other in local elections they have successfully maximised the centre left vote and ousted the Tories in a number of areas. The sticking point in the general election was Starmers refusal to adopt PR which the party voted for at the conference on 2023. The party least likely to form a pact with Labour is the SNP because Labour is for the Union and a vote at least would be a condition of any pact. The condition of any pa t with the Geens and the Lib Dems would be the adoption of PR which is what the majority of members want anyway - it's Starmer who is the issue there but if Reform and the Tories were to co-operate he'd be an idiot not to ditch his opposition to PR and form a centre left alliance. Why would a party that has just won One of the biggest majorities ever want to ditch the system that achieved it |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 7:29:47 GMT
Why do you think that? I think it might be an issue for them. Badenock and Jenrick will be desperately appealing to reform voters with their stance on immigration, crime and “war on wokeness”. The message will be the same and Reforms stance as being something different will lose its appeal because the Tories will have a louder voice - although Farage will continue to shout. Because there are millions of middle of the road Tories who are always going to vote Tory (regardless of the fact that their party has lurched to the right) rather than switch to the Lib Dems.
Come the time, they might not have the numbers to defeat Labour on their own and in that situation, it could be provide an opportunity for Farage and Tice to become king makers and actually ultimately find themselves sitting on the front bench of the party in power.
The irony being, that Cameron called the referendum in the first place, to save his party from UKIP decimating their vote share, only to find, that just a few years later, in order to hold power, it would have to ultimately go into a coalition with Reform. The Tories are going through what Labour went through in the 80s. The party has been infighting for years and much of their leaders time has been spent keeping the warring factions on board. It appears the right are winning which means they will lose the centre ground and unless they form some of pact with Reform will remain our of power for sometime. I wouldn't be so sure about those centre ground Tories sticking with the party regardless. The Lib Dems have successfully targeted that vote and many are going to be more comfortable there than in a rabidly right wing Tory Party. |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 7:38:48 GMT
That isn't true. There is an organisaton called Compass that has been co-ordinating co-operation between the Lib Dems, the Greens and Labour for many years now and by standing aside for each other in local elections they have successfully maximised the centre left vote and ousted the Tories in a number of areas. The sticking point in the general election was Starmers refusal to adopt PR which the party voted for at the conference on 2023. The party least likely to form a pact with Labour is the SNP because Labour is for the Union and a vote at least would be a condition of any pact. The condition of any pa t with the Geens and the Lib Dems would be the adoption of PR which is what the majority of members want anyway - it's Starmer who is the issue there but if Reform and the Tories were to co-operate he'd be an idiot not to ditch his opposition to PR and form a centre left alliance. Why would a party that has just won One of the biggest majorities ever want to ditch the system that achieved it Because the system that gifted Labour a massive landslide with 34% of the vote could easily gift a landslide to a Tory/Reform alliance The combined Tory and Reform vote at the last election was 38% - had they co-operated Labour would not have won a working majority, let alone a landslide. If Labour were to go it alone under FPTP against a Tory/Reform alliance it's odds on they would lose the next election. |
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Post by wannabee on Oct 10, 2024 9:15:47 GMT
Why would a party that has just won One of the biggest majorities ever want to ditch the system that achieved it Because the system that gifted Labour a massive landslide with 34% of the vote could easily gift a landslide to a Tory/Reform alliance The combined Tory and Reform vote at the last election was 38% - had they co-operated Labour would not have won a working majority, let alone a landslide. If Labour were to go it alone under FPTP against a Tory/Reform alliance it's odds on they would lose the next election. Voters are not homogenous, it is far too simplistic to combine the vote share of Conservatives and Reform and extrapolate an answer. Vote management and efficiency is crucial At the GE LibDems did that very well as did Labour. It's been pointed out several times that Labour received less popular vote than in 2017 and 2019 which is true but meaningless. The only thing that matters in FPTP is the F Undoubtedly already all Party strategists will be analysing the Constituencies where they came second which are the "Marginals" to them. Of the 72 seats LibDems won Conservatives were second in 64. A further movement to the Right would solidify those seats and place another 20 where LibDems came second in danger. Labour and LibDems are not fishing in the same pool. Greens had a good GE winning 4 seats but they came second in 40 Constituencies 39 of those to Labour. Those Constituencies would certainly be under attack by the Greens. The big disadvantage Reform have is they don't have a grassroots structure and it won't be built before next GE. The 2026 Local Elections will form the groundwork for 2029 GE and they just don't have the party machine and experienced volunteers to analysis and manage the vote. They rely on a Populist Top Down approach which is crude but can be effective but also inefficient. If Badenock/Jenrick form an alliance of some sort the message heard most will be Reform on the basis of who shouts loudest. This shouldn't affect the Reform vote share but it may well cause some Conservative voters to look again at LibDems or to just sit it out so 38% is no more. That would also bring into play of the 121 seats Conservative won Labour were second in 87. Quite rightly much discussion post GE has been about Vote share versus representation especially in regards to Reform. On the basis Turkeys don't vote for Christmas FPTP will be in place for next GE. Reform came second to Conservatives in 9 Constituencies and Conservatives second to Reform in only 2. An alliance should easily pick these up. But the real battleground will be the 89 Constituencies where Reform came second to Labour but mostly the 219 Constituencies where Conservatives came second to Labour. I'm assuming SNP will continue to be a total shambles. During the last Parliament we had Brexit, a Global Pandemic, Wars in Europe and Middle East. I'm hoping nothing as dramatic happens during the next Parliamentary session but there will be "events". It is for Governments to lose Elections and so far this Administration has managed to generate a complete lack of enthusiasm but there is a loooong way to go and it would be a foolish person that would forecast the outcome of next GE or what the issues will be. |
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Post by stokeson on Oct 10, 2024 9:54:26 GMT
Why would a party that has just won One of the biggest majorities ever want to ditch the system that achieved it Because the system that gifted Labour a massive landslide with 34% of the vote could easily gift a landslide to a Tory/Reform alliance The combined Tory and Reform vote at the last election was 38% - had they co-operated Labour would not have won a working majority, let alone a landslide. If Labour were to go it alone under FPTP against a Tory/Reform alliance it's odds on they would lose the next election. Great string of posts mate. |
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 10, 2024 10:04:35 GMT
Vote management and efficiency is crucial At the GE LibDems did that very well as did Labour. It's been pointed out several times that Labour received less popular vote than in 2017 and 2019 which is true but meaningless. The only thing that matters in FPTP is the F It has led to bugger all honey moon period though for the government. It wasn't a ringing endorsement of Starmer's Labour, more a means to get the Tories out, and voters are already very disgruntled. It won't take much of a shift in voting to reverse the huge majority with so many marginals in play. |
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Post by wannabee on Oct 10, 2024 10:17:51 GMT
Vote management and efficiency is crucial At the GE LibDems did that very well as did Labour. It's been pointed out several times that Labour received less popular vote than in 2017 and 2019 which is true but meaningless. The only thing that matters in FPTP is the F It has led to bugger all honey moon period though for the government. It wasn't a ringing endorsement of Starmer's Labour, more a means to get the Tories out, and voters are already very disgruntled. It won't take much of a shift in voting to reverse the huge majority with so many marginals in play. If we're both around in 5 years I'm sure we can discuss it My contention is that a lot will happen between now and then to make predictions now meaningless Immediately after the 2019 Election and the large Conservative Majority the pundits were predicting at least 10 years more of Conservative Governments |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 10:58:06 GMT
Because the system that gifted Labour a massive landslide with 34% of the vote could easily gift a landslide to a Tory/Reform alliance The combined Tory and Reform vote at the last election was 38% - had they co-operated Labour would not have won a working majority, let alone a landslide. If Labour were to go it alone under FPTP against a Tory/Reform alliance it's odds on they would lose the next election. Voters are not homogenous, it is far too simplistic to combine the vote share of Conservatives and Reform and extrapolate an answer. Vote management and efficiency is crucial At the GE LibDems did that very well as did Labour. It's been pointed out several times that Labour received less popular vote than in 2017 and 2019 which is true but meaningless. The only thing that matters in FPTP is the F Undoubtedly already all Party strategists will be analysing the Constituencies where they came second which are the "Marginals" to them. Of the 72 seats LibDems won Conservatives were second in 64. A further movement to the Right would solidify those seats and place another 20 where LibDems came second in danger. Labour and LibDems are not fishing in the same pool. Greens had a good GE winning 4 seats but they came second in 40 Constituencies 39 of those to Labour. Those Constituencies would certainly be under attack by the Greens. The big disadvantage Reform have is they don't have a grassroots structure and it won't be built before next GE. The 2026 Local Elections will form the groundwork for 2029 GE and they just don't have the party machine and experienced volunteers to analysis and manage the vote. They rely on a Populist Top Down approach which is crude but can be effective but also inefficient. If Badenock/Jenrick form an alliance of some sort the message heard most will be Reform on the basis of who shouts loudest. This shouldn't affect the Reform vote share but it may well cause some Conservative voters to look again at LibDems or to just sit it out so 38% is no more. That would also bring into play of the 121 seats Conservative won Labour were second in 87. Quite rightly much discussion post GE has been about Vote share versus representation especially in regards to Reform. On the basis Turkeys don't vote for Christmas FPTP will be in place for next GE. Reform came second to Conservatives in 9 Constituencies and Conservatives second to Reform in only 2. An alliance should easily pick these up. But the real battleground will be the 89 Constituencies where Reform came second to Labour but mostly the 219 Constituencies where Conservatives came second to Labour. I'm assuming SNP will continue to be a total shambles. During the last Parliament we had Brexit, a Global Pandemic, Wars in Europe and Middle East. I'm hoping nothing as dramatic happens during the next Parliamentary session but there will be "events". It is for Governments to lose Elections and so far this Administration has managed to generate a complete lack of enthusiasm but there is a loooong way to go and it would be a foolish person that would forecast the outcome of next GE or what the issues will be. Yes many things might happen between now and the next election but certain things will still be a major factor: 1 The Tories are about to elect a right wing leader. This means they are way less likely to attract centre ground voters at the next election. When they last did this with Hague, IDS and Howard they successfully kept themselves out of government for over a decade and back then they weren't fighting over a significant number of votes with Reform 2 If the Tories don't form an alliance with Reform the right wing vote will be split and winning a majority under FPTP would be nigh on impossible. If anything the result will be worse than this time round because a right wing leadership will move even more centre ground Tories into the arms of the Lib Dems. 3 If the Tories do form an alliance with Reform it will consolidate the right wing vote and under FPTP could easily win enough seats at the next election especially as the Labour government isn't actually that popular despite its landslide victory. Alot could happen but by lurching to the right the Tories, for the time being at least, have boxed themselves into a corner and cut off the politically expedient option of regaining power by winning the centre ground. That has very significant implications for how things will pan out. |
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Post by lordb on Oct 10, 2024 11:20:39 GMT
Be surprised if whoever wins this leadership contest is the leader at the next GE
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Post by salopstick on Oct 10, 2024 11:29:35 GMT
only the snp can help them - and that aint happening. the greens wont have anything to do with them It will be a long time before the libs ever compromise with labour or conservatives again That isn't true. There is an organisaton called Compass that has been co-ordinating co-operation between the Lib Dems, the Greens and Labour for many years now and by standing aside for each other in local elections they have successfully maximised the centre left vote and ousted the Tories in a number of areas. The sticking point in the general election was Starmers refusal to adopt PR which the party voted for at the conference on 2023. The party least likely to form a pact with Labour is the SNP because Labour is for the Union and a vote at least would be a condition of any pact. The condition of any pa t with the Geens and the Lib Dems would be the adoption of PR which is what the majority of members want anyway - it's Starmer who is the issue there but if Reform and the Tories were to co-operate he'd be an idiot not to ditch his opposition to PR and form a centre left alliance. they may make some sort of pact in certain seats but i meant the libs wont go into coalition for a long time. the 15 election saw to that |
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Post by wannabee on Oct 10, 2024 12:18:35 GMT
Be surprised if whoever wins this leadership contest is the leader at the next GE I completely agree Of the 8 Conservative Party Leaders since John Major only 1 Cameron has lasted 5 years and more than half that time they were in Government Whether it's Badenoch or Jenrick is immaterial neither will unite the Party. MPs don't unite around a Leader they unite around a set of Policies and the same divisions remain within the Conservative Party FFS we had the ridiculous spectacle of "the Five Families" which include sub factions The Blue Collar Conservatives, The Common Sense Group (hard right) The Conservative Growth Group (Lizzy's gang) The ERG, The New Conservatives (Red Wallers) The No Turning Back Group (Thatcherites) The Northern Research Group and The One Nation Conservatives (centre right) Obviously there are overlaps but they make the Labour Party divisions seem like a Punch & Judy Show in comparison |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 12:28:00 GMT
That isn't true. There is an organisaton called Compass that has been co-ordinating co-operation between the Lib Dems, the Greens and Labour for many years now and by standing aside for each other in local elections they have successfully maximised the centre left vote and ousted the Tories in a number of areas. The sticking point in the general election was Starmers refusal to adopt PR which the party voted for at the conference on 2023. The party least likely to form a pact with Labour is the SNP because Labour is for the Union and a vote at least would be a condition of any pact. The condition of any pa t with the Geens and the Lib Dems would be the adoption of PR which is what the majority of members want anyway - it's Starmer who is the issue there but if Reform and the Tories were to co-operate he'd be an idiot not to ditch his opposition to PR and form a centre left alliance. they may make some sort of pact in certain seats but i meant the libs wont go into coalition for a long time. the 15 election saw to that Well that isn't true either. The Lib Dems support PR and have done for years. No party can support PR without expecting to form a coalition government because in a muti party election its highly unlikely a single party will ever get over 50% of the vote. It's Starmer who isn't in favour of coalition government not the Lib Dems. |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 12:40:03 GMT
Be surprised if whoever wins this leadership contest is the leader at the next GE I completely agree Of the 8 Conservative Party Leaders since John Major only 1 Cameron has lasted 5 years and more than half that time they were in Government Whether it's Badenoch or Jenrick is immaterial neither will unite the Party. MPs don't unite around a Leader they unite around a set of Policies and the same divisions remain within the Conservative Party FFS we had the ridiculous spectacle of "the Five Families" which include sub factions The Blue Collar Conservatives, The Common Sense Group (hard right) The Conservative Growth Group (Lizzy's gang) The ERG, The New Conservatives (Red Wallers) The No Turning Back Group (Thatcherites) The Northern Research Group and The One Nation Conservatives (centre right) Obviously there are overlaps but they make the Labour Party divisions seem like a Punch & Judy Show in comparison Starmer has resolved the issue in the Labour Party by ruthlessly ousting the left which reduced dissent and infighting and gave him a credible centre ground platform from which to win the election. How will the Tories get their own house in order? For years now they've tried unsuccessfully to keep the disparate factions on board. While in government they could get away with it but if they carry on infighting in opposition they aren't going to win over voters. So do the right oust the centre ground (which they started to do under Boris before his landslide election victory) or do the centre ground Tories regroup, bide their time and then oust the right? Personally I think the Tories would have put themselves in a better position for the next election with a centre ground leader prepared to oust the right and distance themselves from Reform and fight an unpopular Labour givernment on the centre ground. By going to the right they have made the job of winning the next election far harder unless they can come to an accommodation with Reform. Interesting times. |
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 10, 2024 12:42:26 GMT
Both potential leaders will promise lower taxes in combination with lower migration. Zero detail on how that will work of course. With an ageing population/reducing birth rate, the only way is absolute dog shit public services unless you believe that productivity can be massively raised through reforms alone.
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Post by wannabee on Oct 10, 2024 13:06:57 GMT
I completely agree Of the 8 Conservative Party Leaders since John Major only 1 Cameron has lasted 5 years and more than half that time they were in Government Whether it's Badenoch or Jenrick is immaterial neither will unite the Party. MPs don't unite around a Leader they unite around a set of Policies and the same divisions remain within the Conservative Party FFS we had the ridiculous spectacle of "the Five Families" which include sub factions The Blue Collar Conservatives, The Common Sense Group (hard right) The Conservative Growth Group (Lizzy's gang) The ERG, The New Conservatives (Red Wallers) The No Turning Back Group (Thatcherites) The Northern Research Group and The One Nation Conservatives (centre right) Obviously there are overlaps but they make the Labour Party divisions seem like a Punch & Judy Show in comparison Starmer has resolved the issue in the Labour Party by ruthlessly ousting the left which reduced dissent and infighting and gave him a credible centre ground platform from which to win the election. How will the Tories get their own house in order? For years now they've tried unsuccessfully to keep the disparate factions on board. While in government they could get away with it but if they carry on infighting in opposition they aren't going to win over voters. So do the right oust the centre ground (which they started to do under Boris before his landslide election victory) or do the centre ground Tories regroup, bide their time and then oust the right? Personally I think the Tories would have put themselves in a better position for the next election with a centre ground leader prepared to oust the right and distance themselves from Reform and fight an unpopular Labour givernment on the centre ground. By going to the right they have made the job of winning the next election far harder unless they can come to an accommodation with Reform. Interesting times. Completely agree with all of that especially that it's easier to paper over the division in Government as there's more to lose, which will apply to Labour as well. The virtue of being a "Broad Church" is both impractical and implacable Boris managed to purge most if not all remainers but that was on a single issue. Covid forced Boris/Rishi to make many very Socialist decisions which were popular in the Country but not in the Party. That goodwill was squandard by Partygate. The next big mistake was by stepping onto Reforms Battleground and being seen to be ineffective at doing it but also the No 1 issue in GE was the Economy I completely agree with your last para which I believe they will come to realise, it's just hard to see who may emerge from the pack, I seriously wouldn't rule out Boris making a triumphant return if his ego outstrips his desire to make money. |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 10, 2024 13:14:00 GMT
Starmer has resolved the issue in the Labour Party by ruthlessly ousting the left which reduced dissent and infighting and gave him a credible centre ground platform from which to win the election. How will the Tories get their own house in order? For years now they've tried unsuccessfully to keep the disparate factions on board. While in government they could get away with it but if they carry on infighting in opposition they aren't going to win over voters. So do the right oust the centre ground (which they started to do under Boris before his landslide election victory) or do the centre ground Tories regroup, bide their time and then oust the right? Personally I think the Tories would have put themselves in a better position for the next election with a centre ground leader prepared to oust the right and distance themselves from Reform and fight an unpopular Labour givernment on the centre ground. By going to the right they have made the job of winning the next election far harder unless they can come to an accommodation with Reform. Interesting times. Completely agree with all of that especially that it's easier to paper over the division in Government as there's more to lose, which will apply to Labour as well. The virtue of being a "Broad Church" is both impractical and implacable Boris managed to purge most if not all remainers but that was on a single issue. Covid forced Boris/Rishi to make many very Socialist decisions which were popular in the Country but not in the Party. That goodwill was squandard by Partygate. The next big mistake was by stepping onto Reforms Battleground and being seen to be ineffective at doing it but also the No 1 issue in GE was the Economy I completely agree with your last para which I believe they will come to realise, it's just hard to see who may emerge from the pack, I seriously wouldn't rule out Boris making a triumphant return if his ego outstrips his desire to make money. I wouldn't rule out a Boris come back either. And I wouldn't be surprised if the electorate were daft enough to vote the lying, incompetant clown back into no 10. |
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 10, 2024 13:48:28 GMT
Completely agree with all of that especially that it's easier to paper over the division in Government as there's more to lose, which will apply to Labour as well. The virtue of being a "Broad Church" is both impractical and implacable Boris managed to purge most if not all remainers but that was on a single issue. Covid forced Boris/Rishi to make many very Socialist decisions which were popular in the Country but not in the Party. That goodwill was squandard by Partygate. The next big mistake was by stepping onto Reforms Battleground and being seen to be ineffective at doing it but also the No 1 issue in GE was the Economy I completely agree with your last para which I believe they will come to realise, it's just hard to see who may emerge from the pack, I seriously wouldn't rule out Boris making a triumphant return if his ego outstrips his desire to make money. I wouldn't rule out a Boris come back either. And I wouldn't be surprised if the electorate were daft enough to vote the lying, incompetant clown back into no 10. Boris ‘ain’t coming back. Nor, most likely, is James Cleverly …. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by salopstick on Oct 11, 2024 12:42:10 GMT
they may make some sort of pact in certain seats but i meant the libs wont go into coalition for a long time. the 15 election saw to that Well that isn't true either. The Lib Dems support PR and have done for years. No party can support PR without expecting to form a coalition government because in a muti party election its highly unlikely a single party will ever get over 50% of the vote. It's Starmer who isn't in favour of coalition government not the Lib Dems. coalition destroyed the liberals in 2015 it took them a further 9 to bounce back but just like labour it was more an anti tory vote than an endorsement the libs will never cross their redlines for coalition again |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 11, 2024 12:59:45 GMT
Well that isn't true either. The Lib Dems support PR and have done for years. No party can support PR without expecting to form a coalition government because in a muti party election its highly unlikely a single party will ever get over 50% of the vote. It's Starmer who isn't in favour of coalition government not the Lib Dems. coalition destroyed the liberals in 2015 it took them a further 9 to bounce back but just like labour it was more an anti tory vote than an endorsement the libs will never cross their redlines for coalition again That's just isn't true. The Lib Dems are never going to form a majority government under FPTP so they know full well that in order to have any political power they would have to form a coalition. They also support PR and again they would have to be part of a coalition government because it's very unlikely any one party would get 50% of the vote. There were talks before that last election with Labour about formal co-operation but it never got very far because of Starmers opposition to PR. Even so there were seats where either Labour or the Lib Dems didn't campaign in order to beat the Tory candidate. The opposition to coalition government is coming from Labour, not the Lib Dems. They got stung by the Tories but actually want to bring in a system of voting where coalition is an inevitable consequence of the system. |
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 11, 2024 13:49:08 GMT
Either way, it’s worth considering that if the Conservatives won back EVERY SINGLE Reform voter, it would still leave the Conservatives well short of a majority on the basis of 2024 voting patterns. So a lot is relying on 'evidence' about Lab and LD voters. If the Tories can't win even with every Reform voter, but simultaneously the Labour majority is very fragile, we probably have to accept that we are heading for a period of multi-party politics - even with FPTP.  |
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 11, 2024 14:27:44 GMT
Either way, it’s worth considering that if the Conservatives won back EVERY SINGLE Reform voter, it would still leave the Conservatives well short of a majority on the basis of 2024 voting patterns. So a lot is relying on 'evidence' about Lab and LD voters. If the Tories can't win even with every Reform voter, but simultaneously the Labour majority is very fragile, we probably have to accept that we are heading for a period of multi-party politics - even with FPTP. View AttachmentI think that's fair comment. I also think that if Starmer continues in the same vein as he's started for the next five years, then there's a very good chance that a lot of Labour voters will shift to Reform, making a Tory/Reform coalition a distinct possibility. |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 11, 2024 14:51:09 GMT
Either way, it’s worth considering that if the Conservatives won back EVERY SINGLE Reform voter, it would still leave the Conservatives well short of a majority on the basis of 2024 voting patterns. So a lot is relying on 'evidence' about Lab and LD voters. If the Tories can't win even with every Reform voter, but simultaneously the Labour majority is very fragile, we probably have to accept that we are heading for a period of multi-party politics - even with FPTP. View AttachmentThe problem with FPTP with the vote no longer split 2 ways is that the crude numbers mean very little - it all depends on how the vote is distributed across constituencies and even small margins can still lead to disproportionate majorities. In terms of pure numbers the last election should have resulted in a hung Parliament but it didn't - it resulted in a massive Labour majority. However what is certain is that if the right wing vote is split between the Tories and Reform (as it was at the last election) the Tories (and Reform) have virtually zero chance of forming a government but if they were collaborate it would be very close - in fact when Farage agreed to step aside Boris won by a landslide. |
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