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Post by spiderpuss on Oct 8, 2024 23:37:05 GMT
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Post by oggyoggy on Oct 9, 2024 6:50:32 GMT
Step forward Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson Now is obviously not the right time nor would he be be eligible but a lot of his acolytes and he himself have been pretty vocal lately 2/3 Years of the Tory's going nowhere in the Polls will get the Grandes feeling restless and ruthless Timing is everything as far as Boris is concerned as he pondered and agonized over the decision by writing two contrasting essays whether to back or reject Brexit, the most important reason being which would be most beneficial for Boris. Thankfully he chose the right one For him he did. Why anyone could possibly be thankful for it is beyond me. He is the worst PM this country has ever had. Worse than Truss. |
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Post by wannabee on Oct 9, 2024 8:03:43 GMT
Before we bury Caeser .... in his own words
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Post by Dave the Rave on Oct 9, 2024 8:15:08 GMT
Candidate. Current Odds Approx Probability Cleverly. Evens. 50% Badenock. 12/5. 30% Jenrick. 7/2. 20% What an inspiring bunch Have the Tories learnt nothing? People don't like arrogant leaders and Cleverly is arrogance personified. |
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Post by wagsastokie on Oct 9, 2024 13:54:27 GMT
Candidate. Current Odds Approx Probability Cleverly. Evens. 50% Badenock. 12/5. 30% Jenrick. 7/2. 20% What an inspiring bunch Have the Tories learnt nothing? People don't like arrogant leaders and Cleverly is arrogance personified. Trouble is it’s slightly better to have a touch of arrogance Rather than being like the other two stark raving mad |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 9, 2024 14:18:33 GMT
It's all pretty boring stuff. This next election is going to be all about Reform and it should be a lot of fun. Nige and the boys are just getting started. If the new leader tries to take on Reform rather than do a deal the right wing vote will be split and will lose dramatically under FPTP. If they form an electoral alliance their chances would improve and if centre/left don't do the same they could win. However Nige and the Boys? Do they have a crafty fag behind the bike sheds during PE? |
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 9, 2024 14:32:38 GMT
Badenoch - 42
Cleverly - 37
Jenrick - 41
James Cleverly is eliminated.
That’s the dream scenario for Labour.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Oct 9, 2024 14:38:49 GMT
Badenoch - 42 Cleverly - 37 Jenrick - 41 James Cleverly is eliminated. That’s the dream scenario for Labour. That's the Tories out of power for the next 20 years then. |
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Post by salopstick on Oct 9, 2024 14:41:54 GMT
I will probably be wrong but I cant see the tory membership voting for a black woman, certainly not on the far right of the tory party
Jenrik will win imo and try and be as centre wing as he can be. he has to appeal to the centre but also to the increasing reform vote. Labour may be happy but the last election proved that reform may not be able to go fptp in most seats but they can split the tory vote allowing labour in
Reform is what got starmer in and may keep them in next time
5 years is a long time in politics
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Post by Robo10 on Oct 9, 2024 14:52:48 GMT
I'm fairly flabbergasted by the voting - I had Cleverley (even though he is thick as mince) winning easily as they looked back to the centre ground and attempt to become credible again
The two remaining contenders, I mean, fucking hell....they are as right wing as they come, probably more so that Farage, but without any of his charm (if you call it that, I think he is a twat)
Jenrick is a step away from one of those 30s German chaps, and Badenoch is a fairly dispicable human being.
They will lurch even further right, you might even see Reform becoming the new Tories at this rate and be the official opposition come 2029.
Starmer just needs to get his shit in order (particularly how its communicated - the actual policy of not giving subsidies to well off pensioners is correct, and are increasing pensions by far more than £300, but didnt sell it at all, and allowed the RW press to maul them), because if his early term gambles and bad press on the Pensioners etc comes off and we get economic recovery and are all better off, there is no way most of Britain would vote for a far right leaning party.
What a choice to be left with - 2 fucking right wing 'stop the boats' hardon loving lunatics.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 9, 2024 15:01:13 GMT
I will probably be wrong but I cant see the tory membership voting for a black woman, certainly not on the far right of the tory party Jenrik will win imo and try and be as centre wing as he can be. he has to appeal to the centre but also to the increasing reform vote. Labour may be happy but the last election proved that reform may not be able to go fptp in most seats but they can split the tory vote allowing labour in Reform is what got starmer in and may keep them in next time 5 years is a long time in politics Jenrik has set his stall out and it really isn't going to attract centre ground Tories. The contest has boiled down to the two most right wing candidates. They've done a Labour and going to elect their very own Jeremy Corbyn. Unless they do a deal with Reform they really have fucked up. |
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 9, 2024 15:05:43 GMT
I will probably be wrong but I cant see the tory membership voting for a black woman, certainly not on the far right of the tory party Jenrik will win imo and try and be as centre wing as he can be. he has to appeal to the centre but also to the increasing reform vote. Labour may be happy but the last election proved that reform may not be able to go fptp in most seats but they can split the tory vote allowing labour in Reform is what got starmer in and may keep them in next time 5 years is a long time in politics
Not a chance that they will, you are absolutely correct.
I suggested on here before the candidates were even announced, that Jenrick would be the next Tory Party leader.
A Jenrick/Farage alliance could see Labour gone at the next election.
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Post by str8outtahampton on Oct 9, 2024 15:11:27 GMT
I will probably be wrong but I cant see the tory membership voting for a black woman, certainly not on the far right of the tory party Jenrik will win imo and try and be as centre wing as he can be. he has to appeal to the centre but also to the increasing reform vote. Labour may be happy but the last election proved that reform may not be able to go fptp in most seats but they can split the tory vote allowing labour in Reform is what got starmer in and may keep them in next time 5 years is a long time in politics Not a chance that they will, you are absolutely correct. I suggested on here before the candidates were even announced, that Jenrick would be the next Tory Party leader. A Jenrick/Farage alliance could see Labour gone at the next election. I guess in a two horse race, anything can happen. But meanwhile Denise Coates disagrees with both of you. She has Badenoch nailed on. And as we all know, she earns only slightly less than £1m a day predicting the future. |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 9, 2024 15:14:39 GMT
I will probably be wrong but I cant see the tory membership voting for a black woman, certainly not on the far right of the tory party Jenrik will win imo and try and be as centre wing as he can be. he has to appeal to the centre but also to the increasing reform vote. Labour may be happy but the last election proved that reform may not be able to go fptp in most seats but they can split the tory vote allowing labour in Reform is what got starmer in and may keep them in next time 5 years is a long time in politics Not a chance that they will, you are absolutely correct. I suggested on here before the candidates were even announced, that Jenrick would be the next Tory Party leader. A Jenrick/Farage alliance could see Labour gone at the next election. Yes - unless Labour respond and do a deal with the other centre/centre left parties. If they go it alone against a Tory/Reform alliance they are toast under FPTP. Thing is I think Starmer's instincts would be to go it alone. |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 9, 2024 15:16:10 GMT
Not a chance that they will, you are absolutely correct. I suggested on here before the candidates were even announced, that Jenrick would be the next Tory Party leader. A Jenrick/Farage alliance could see Labour gone at the next election. I guess in a two horse race, anything can happen. But meanwhile Denise Coates disagrees with both of you. She has Badenoch nailed on. And as we all know, she earns only slightly less than £1m a day predicting the future. Gambling companies don't predict outcomes, they predict what odds will give them the most return. |
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Post by salopstick on Oct 9, 2024 15:23:11 GMT
Not a chance that they will, you are absolutely correct. I suggested on here before the candidates were even announced, that Jenrick would be the next Tory Party leader. A Jenrick/Farage alliance could see Labour gone at the next election. Yes - unless Labour respond and do a deal with the other centre/centre left parties. If they go it alone against a Tory/Reform alliance they are toast under FPTP. Thing is I think Starmer's instincts would be to go it alone. only the snp can help them - and that aint happening. the greens wont have anything to do with them It will be a long time before the libs ever compromise with labour or conservatives again |
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 9, 2024 15:29:50 GMT
I will probably be wrong but I cant see the tory membership voting for a black woman, certainly not on the far right of the tory party Jenrik will win imo and try and be as centre wing as he can be. he has to appeal to the centre but also to the increasing reform vote. Labour may be happy but the last election proved that reform may not be able to go fptp in most seats but they can split the tory vote allowing labour in Reform is what got starmer in and may keep them in next time 5 years is a long time in politics Jenrik has set his stall out and it really isn't going to attract centre ground Tories. The contest has boiled down to the two most right wing candidates. They've done a Labour and going to elect their very own Jeremy Corbyn. Unless they do a deal with Reform they really have fucked up. Depending upon how the rest of the leadership election is fought this could actually be the point when the Tory party ceases to be a movement contending for government (at least in the medium term). The Lib Dems now have a very serious opportunity to fill the gap left by the centre right if Jenrick continues to veer off to the right and if Badenoch goes with him and fails to retreat from it. The Conservatives are finally having their Corbyn Moment. |
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Post by str8outtahampton on Oct 9, 2024 15:34:01 GMT
I guess in a two horse race, anything can happen. But meanwhile Denise Coates disagrees with both of you. She has Badenoch nailed on. And as we all know, she earns only slightly less than £1m a day predicting the future. Gambling companies don't predict outcomes, they predict what odds will give them the most return. Yeah I know (broadly) how it works. Predicting what will generate most profit and predicting the outcome are not necessarily mutually exclusive. It surprises me greatly, but Badenoch is (as I understand it) leading in the polls as to which way the membership will vote. That's obviously not necessarily how the vote will go, and it'll be interesting to see how Denise's odds develop over the next 2-3 weeks. |
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Post by stokeson on Oct 9, 2024 15:43:48 GMT
Great day for Labour .Tories gone full rightwing tonto. Next few years Labour will revolutionise working peoples lives while torys and reform out right nutter eachother......y
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Post by Gawa on Oct 9, 2024 15:45:13 GMT
Badenoch - 42 Cleverly - 37 Jenrick - 41 James Cleverly is eliminated. That’s the dream scenario for Labour. That's the Tories out of power for the next 20 years then. Wait for the merger with reform which will happen. Whether officially or through a series of standing down on eachothers preferred seats. And we will then have the same commentators telling us to vote for Bakers to keep Harringtons and Wainwrights out. Three versions of dog food effectively all following the same trajectory just at different paces. We already have David Cameron dressed up as Labour leader as it is. Its like choosing between a 90 degree, 120 degree or 150 degree turn. Doesn't make a difference as all turns lead further to the right. |
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Post by flea79 on Oct 9, 2024 15:48:16 GMT
I will probably be wrong but I cant see the tory membership voting for a black woman, certainly not on the far right of the tory party Jenrik will win imo and try and be as centre wing as he can be. he has to appeal to the centre but also to the increasing reform vote. Labour may be happy but the last election proved that reform may not be able to go fptp in most seats but they can split the tory vote allowing labour in Reform is what got starmer in and may keep them in next time 5 years is a long time in politics yeah because the tory party have never let a woman lead the party and country twice, i dont see the relevance in the colour of her skin, lets face it the right wingers dont see black folk as an "enemy" anymore, its the islamic migrants that are coming over as a result of our disastrous foreign policy decisions in the middle east that are the recipients of the right wings venom these days i also dont see the tory party as right wing, maybe centre right yes but the right wing are now in banned groups and follow Yaxley-Lennon and other such folk. |
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Post by Gawa on Oct 9, 2024 15:49:28 GMT
I'm fairly flabbergasted by the voting - I had Cleverley (even though he is think as mince) winning easily as they looked back to the centre ground and attempt to become credible again The two remaining contenders, I mean, fucking hell....they are as right wing as they come, probably more so that Farage, but without any of his charm (if you call it that, I think he is a twat) Jenrick is a step away from one of those 30s German chaps, and Badenoch is a fairly dispicable human being. They will lurch even further right, you might even see Reform becoming the new Tories at this rate and be the official opposition come 2029. Starmer just needs to get his shit in order (particularly how its communicated - the actual policy of not giving subsidies to well off pensioners is correct, and are increasing pensions by far more than £300, but didnt sell it at all, and allowed the RW press to maul them), because if his early term gambles and bad press on the Pensioners etc comes off and we get economic recovery and are all better off, there is no way most of Britain would vote for a far right leaning party. What a choice to be left with - 2 fucking right wing 'stop the boats' hardon loving lunatics. There lies your problem. We have a labour leader equivalent to tory leader in 2010. And come next election the equivalent of the tory 2010 leader will be touted to as the "socialist" and "communist" by Reform and Tory. And people wonder why I say centrism delivers right wing politics. And just like with Macron when push comes to shove. Starmer would sooner go into a coalition with Jenrick and Farage over a corbyn. Labour is dead as a left wing party. |
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Post by oggyoggy on Oct 9, 2024 15:50:33 GMT
Badenoch - 42 Cleverly - 37 Jenrick - 41 James Cleverly is eliminated. That’s the dream scenario for Labour. Will Starmer have to declare that outcome as a gift? |
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 9, 2024 16:01:34 GMT
I'm fairly flabbergasted by the voting - I had Cleverley (even though he is think as mince) winning easily as they looked back to the centre ground and attempt to become credible again The two remaining contenders, I mean, fucking hell....they are as right wing as they come, probably more so that Farage, but without any of his charm (if you call it that, I think he is a twat) Jenrick is a step away from one of those 30s German chaps, and Badenoch is a fairly dispicable human being. They will lurch even further right, you might even see Reform becoming the new Tories at this rate and be the official opposition come 2029. Starmer just needs to get his shit in order (particularly how its communicated - the actual policy of not giving subsidies to well off pensioners is correct, and are increasing pensions by far more than £300, but didnt sell it at all, and allowed the RW press to maul them), because if his early term gambles and bad press on the Pensioners etc comes off and we get economic recovery and are all better off, there is no way most of Britain would vote for a far right leaning party. What a choice to be left with - 2 fucking right wing 'stop the boats' hardon loving lunatics. There lies your problem. We have a labour leader equivalent to tory leader in 2010. And come next election the equivalent of the tory 2010 leader will be touted to as the "socialist" and "communist" by Reform and Tory. And people wonder why I say centrism delivers right wing politics. And just like with Macron when push comes to shove. Starmer would sooner go into a coalition with Jenrick and Farage over a corbyn. Labour is dead as a left wing party. Not sure that centrism delivers ‘right wing” politics - it merely lets incumbents encompass ideas from both (I.e. Blair & Brown’s left wing social policy was married with centrist economic policies). Obviously, those on the left are going to think centrism is right wing, just as much as those on the right believe the opposite - which is evidently precisely the place the Conservatives find themselves this afternoon. Incidentally, I don’t think the parliamentary Labour Party has been “left wing” as such probably since about 1987. Since (and encompassing) Kinnock, Labour has been largely of the centre-left. Although the grass-roots Labour Party is more left wing than its parliamentary partner, it’s still largely centre-left in mind and body outside of the Trade Unions. |
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Post by Gawa on Oct 9, 2024 16:11:47 GMT
There lies your problem. We have a labour leader equivalent to tory leader in 2010. And come next election the equivalent of the tory 2010 leader will be touted to as the "socialist" and "communist" by Reform and Tory. And people wonder why I say centrism delivers right wing politics. And just like with Macron when push comes to shove. Starmer would sooner go into a coalition with Jenrick and Farage over a corbyn. Labour is dead as a left wing party. Not sure that centrism delivers ‘right wing” politics - it merely lets incumbents encompass ideas from both (I.e. Blair & Brown’s left wing social policy was married with centrist economic policies). Obviously, those on the left are going to think centrism is right wing, just as much as those on the right believe the opposite - which is evidently precisely the place the Conservatives find themselves this afternoon. Incidentally, I don’t think the parliamentary Labour Party has been “left wing” as such probably since about 1987. Since (and encompassing) Kinnock, Labour has been largely of the centre-left. Although the grass-roots Labour Party is more left wing than its parliamentary partner, it’s still largely centre-left in mind and body outside of the Trade Unions. I don't think centrists vote for centrist parties to get right wing policies by the way. But left wing parties like Labour taken over by those who aren't left wing, it leaves a gaping hole when it comes to choice. And as a result the only left wing opposition we get is that on some social issues but when it comes to economics theyre all incredibly similar. And I think that's how some like it and why such an effort was made to get rid of Corbyn. Because corbyn was economically left and there was a very strong appetite from his policies. Now starmer is in there's barely a difference when it comes to economy. Same old neoliberalism shite. I agree with most of what you say though about labour not having a true left wing leader as PM for quite some time. Corbyn and Smith were both left wing leaders since 1989 imo. As Thatcher once said: "I think my greatest achievement is Tony Blair. He has made the Labour Party the party of the center." Never a truer word spoken. |
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Post by wannabee on Oct 9, 2024 16:20:58 GMT
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 9, 2024 16:44:50 GMT
I expected Cleverly to get through but the membership was always likely to vote for a comfort blanket candidate on the right whatever the result.
Usually they'd have no chance whoever was picked but the Labour majority is built on very flimsy foundations.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Oct 9, 2024 17:11:01 GMT
Great news for Big Nige and Super Ricky Tice
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Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 9, 2024 17:44:54 GMT
Somehow Conservative MPs have managed to (a) eliminate the candidate with the clearest appeal to swing voters the party needs (Cleverly) and (b) ensure that whoever wins the members ballot starts without the support of most MPs.
Turns out that a few Conservative MPs thought Cleverly was home and dry and so decided to try to knock out the other candidate they least wanted. Many members of the Conservative Party will feel disenfranchised by that result. It's impressive that the Conservatives have somehow managed to lose an election which only had Conservatives running in it.
No matter how unpopular Starmer gets, he’ll never be defeated by Jenrick or Badenoch. Almost guaranteed second term for Labour now.
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Post by PotteringThrough on Oct 9, 2024 18:07:50 GMT
Great news for Big Nige and Super Ricky Tice Why do you think that? I think it might be an issue for them. Badenock and Jenrick will be desperately appealing to reform voters with their stance on immigration, crime and “war on wokeness”. The message will be the same and Reforms stance as being something different will lose its appeal because the Tories will have a louder voice - although Farage will continue to shout. |
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