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Post by mjg13x on Aug 10, 2024 15:37:32 GMT
Too much of their base hate Jews or Shapiro would have been the best pick by a mile. Him and Gavin Newsom are the most talented politicians in the party I think. Presumably Republicans will want to focus on BLM riots and social policies of Walz - not sure if that will work for or against them. Also JD Vance is highly intelligent and an excellent debater so I don't think anyone would get an easy night with that one Apparently unions don't like Shapiro because of some "school voucher" thing, and they're a big part of the Democratic base. They had issues with Kelly too. Newsom's the governor where I live so I see more about him. He seems a decent governor but also just comes across as a slick politician, which puts me off. I heard similar about Shapiro being too smooth. Yeah, it's not just Shapiro's stance on Israel. (Which is a bit worse but not all that different from the others', to be honest.) The teachers' unions hate him, and Dems need them on board. I liked Kelly a lot, but the unions had concerns about him not signing on to their big bill until he was in the conversation for VP. And the risk of opening up a competitive Senate seat was another drag on his candidacy. Newsom is incredibly easy to tar as an out-of-touch limousine liberal. One of his biggest scandals was going out to a $400-a-plate restaurant during the height of the COVID restrictions. And he's too transparent about his ambitions for many. The big hole in that line of attack on Walz is that there's audio out there of Trump praising Walz for how he was handling the riots while they were going on. I think he was the safest choice. Not necessarily the one with the biggest benefit, but he's not going to be a drag on the ticket the way Vance is, and he's quite a good speaker. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 10, 2024 18:45:42 GMT
]Yeah, it's not just Shapiro's stance on Israel. (Which is a bit worse but not all that different from the others', to be honest.) The teachers' unions hate him, and Dems need them on board. I liked Kelly a lot, but the unions had concerns about him not signing on to their big bill until he was in the conversation for VP. And the risk of opening up a competitive Senate seat was another drag on his candidacy. Newsom is incredibly easy to tar as an out-of-touch limousine liberal. One of his biggest scandals was going out to a $400-a-plate restaurant during the height of the COVID restrictions. And he's too transparent about his ambitions for many. The big hole in that line of attack on Walz is that there's audio out there of Trump praising Walz for how he was handling the riots while they were going on. I think he was the safest choice. Not necessarily the one with the biggest benefit, but he's not going to be a drag on the ticket the way Vance is, and he's quite a good speaker. Fantastic post mate, interesting perspective & summary 👍 I remembered the restaurant thing and was pissed about it. But iirc the restaurant was called French Laundry so I didn't even realise it was a restaurant at first. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 12, 2024 9:42:18 GMT
Nate Silver, 538 and betting markets have inched a bit more towards Kamala.
Betting markets are ~52% Kamala, ~46% Trump now. With some long shots (Obama, Kennedy etc).
Just before Biden dropped out, Trump was at 66% with Biden at 18%. The rest of the bets were that Biden would drop out.
Harris nationally about 2% up in the polls, but for Democrats to be confident they really need to win by about 5% because of the way the rules are stacked in republicans' favour.
538 has every swing state very close. Harris has retaken tiny tiny leads in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. If she wins the last 3 that should decide it, although she could lose one in exchange for Arizona and/or Georgia.
It's only a few weeks since Biden dropped out, and Kamala has gone from 5% behind to 1.5% up in Pennsylvania. Maybe in 3 weeks she'll be 5% down again...
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 14, 2024 20:55:44 GMT
Not much in the way of policies announced yet, apparently she's waiting for the Democratic convention soon.
More good polls. She's now around 3% up on Trump but betting odds haven't shifted.
Surprisingly strong in the Midwest - better than Biden's 2020 results. I honestly thought she'd be doing worse in places like Pennsylvania, but Trump outperformed polls there in 2016 & 2020.
So so so close still. Three states are within 1%: Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. And Trump beat his polls in 2016 & 2020.
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Post by professorplump on Aug 15, 2024 6:56:08 GMT
This election is going to be a real nail biter. A lot could hinge on their televised debates. Trump will come out all guns blazing. The question is how should Harris respond? Should she fight back or try to rise above it?
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Post by dutchstokie on Aug 15, 2024 10:12:20 GMT
This election is going to be a real nail biter. A lot could hinge on their televised debates. Trump will come out all guns blazing. The question is how should Harris respond? Should she fight back or try to rise above it? Listening to Trump dribble on last night on CNN made me think that the more he hurls daft comments around and personal atttacks on Harris, the easier it becomes for her. Are Americans that gullible....? If I were Harris I would be sitting there thinking - " youre winning the election for me without me doing a thing - carry on sunshine !" Surely to god he must at some point set out the policies he intends to administer instead of this childish "shes a crazy bad person" bollocks |
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Post by OldStokie on Aug 15, 2024 11:12:06 GMT
This election is going to be a real nail biter. A lot could hinge on their televised debates. Trump will come out all guns blazing. The question is how should Harris respond? Should she fight back or try to rise above it? The problem with Trump's blazing guns is that they're loaded with lies and misinformation and personal attacks rather than genuine policies. His only chance is regarding immigration and the economy. In reality, as he showed during his last tenure, he knows little about either except scaremongering. OS. |
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Post by elystokie on Aug 15, 2024 11:51:46 GMT
Too Much and Never Enough: How my family created the world's most dangerous man by Mary Trump is on Kindle Unlimited at the moment, just started it, seems he was basically groomed into being the nut job he is by his Dad.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 15, 2024 15:41:58 GMT
This election is going to be a real nail biter. A lot could hinge on their televised debates. Trump will come out all guns blazing. The question is how should Harris respond? Should she fight back or try to rise above it? The problem with Trump's blazing guns is that they're loaded with lies and misinformation and personal attacks rather than genuine policies. His only chance is regarding immigration and the economy. In reality, as he showed during his last tenure, he knows little about either except scaremongering. OS. His tax cuts were fucking bad overall IMO. You do $1.5 trillion in unfunded tax cuts and sure the economy perks up a bit. But he'd inherited the perfect part of the business cycle and should have used it to deal with the debt and/or invest for the future, so there's room for tax cuts to help the economy when it goes down. Instead he decided to fuck the future to pile a trillion+ dollars into the richest with relative crumbs for everyone else. |
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Post by wannabee on Aug 15, 2024 16:16:03 GMT
Trump and his MAGA cult followers are going to completely lost their Shit if he loses to a Black Woman
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Post by lordb on Aug 15, 2024 19:22:49 GMT
Trump and his MAGA cult followers are going to completely lost their Shit if he loses to a Black Woman Ah but is she black? |
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Aug 15, 2024 21:33:27 GMT
This election is going to be a real nail biter. A lot could hinge on their televised debates. Trump will come out all guns blazing. The question is how should Harris respond? Should she fight back or try to rise above it? Listening to Trump dribble on last night on CNN made me think that the more he hurls daft comments around and personal atttacks on Harris, the easier it becomes for her. Are Americans that gullible....? If I were Harris I would be sitting there thinking - " youre winning the election for me without me doing a thing - carry on sunshine !" Surely to god he must at some point set out the policies he intends to administer instead of this childish "shes a crazy bad person" bollocks Yep, it's becoming tiresome. Kamala is going to be a disaster but Republicans should be hanging their hands in shame for letting Trump have another run at it. If he loses, would you bet against him running again at the age of 82? 😂 |
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Post by mjg13x on Aug 17, 2024 19:55:27 GMT
Listening to Trump dribble on last night on CNN made me think that the more he hurls daft comments around and personal atttacks on Harris, the easier it becomes for her. Are Americans that gullible....? If I were Harris I would be sitting there thinking - " youre winning the election for me without me doing a thing - carry on sunshine !" Surely to god he must at some point set out the policies he intends to administer instead of this childish "shes a crazy bad person" bollocks Yep, it's becoming tiresome. Kamala is going to be a disaster but Republicans should be hanging their hands in shame for letting Trump have another run at it. If he loses, would you bet against him running again at the age of 82? 😂 He’s going to be the Republican candidate in every election until he wins a second term or dies. I’d put my entire (relatively meager) net worth on it. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 23, 2024 11:02:58 GMT
There were some leaks or rumours or something that Kennedy Jr is gonna drop out and endorse Trump. He probably cut a deal for some kind of payment in money or power.
The betting markets flipped quickly on that, Kamala was about a 55:45 favourite and now it's a couple of points in Trump's favour.
I can't remember any US election feeling this close?
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Post by wannabee on Aug 23, 2024 11:32:15 GMT
There were some leaks or rumours or something that Kennedy Jr is gonna drop out and endorse Trump. He probably cut a deal for some kind of payment in money or power. The betting markets flipped quickly on that, Kamala was about a 55:45 favourite and now it's a couple of points in Trump's favour. I can't remember any US election feeling this close? It's hard to tell if Kennedy's 2%/4% vote share will go if anywhere The last analysis i saw said he was getting his vote from 44% who voted Biden last time and 37% Trump. Whether the entry of Harris changes the dial who knows Looks like Kennedy and Trump are both in Arizona today albeit at different events so i don't think we'll have to wait long to find out if he's endorsing Trump The Bookies this side have the betting even money your choice. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 23, 2024 12:11:51 GMT
There were some leaks or rumours or something that Kennedy Jr is gonna drop out and endorse Trump. He probably cut a deal for some kind of payment in money or power. The betting markets flipped quickly on that, Kamala was about a 55:45 favourite and now it's a couple of points in Trump's favour. I can't remember any US election feeling this close? It's hard to tell if Kennedy's 2%/4% vote share will go if anywhere The last analysis i saw said he was getting his vote from 44% who voted Biden last time and 37% Trump. Whether the entry of Harris changes the dial who knows Looks like Kennedy and Trump are both in Arizona today albeit at different events so i don't think we'll have to wait long to find out if he's endorsing Trump The Bookies this side have the betting even money your choice. He was certainly an interesting candidate. Something to do with his brain being eaten by a worm? We're definitely living in a simulation. |
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Post by JoeinOz on Aug 23, 2024 13:53:41 GMT
There were some leaks or rumours or something that Kennedy Jr is gonna drop out and endorse Trump. He probably cut a deal for some kind of payment in money or power. The betting markets flipped quickly on that, Kamala was about a 55:45 favourite and now it's a couple of points in Trump's favour. I can't remember any US election feeling this close? It's hard to tell if Kennedy's 2%/4% vote share will go if anywhere The last analysis i saw said he was getting his vote from 44% who voted Biden last time and 37% Trump. Whether the entry of Harris changes the dial who knows Looks like Kennedy and Trump are both in Arizona today albeit at different events so i don't think we'll have to wait long to find out if he's endorsing Trump The Bookies this side have the betting even money your choice. Id be amazed if he wasn't endorsing Trump. |
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Aug 23, 2024 20:30:09 GMT
It's hard to tell if Kennedy's 2%/4% vote share will go if anywhere The last analysis i saw said he was getting his vote from 44% who voted Biden last time and 37% Trump. Whether the entry of Harris changes the dial who knows Looks like Kennedy and Trump are both in Arizona today albeit at different events so i don't think we'll have to wait long to find out if he's endorsing Trump The Bookies this side have the betting even money your choice. Id be amazed if he wasn't endorsing Trump. Looks like Bobby wasn't feeling the JOY of the DNC! He has endorsed Trump but that doesn't mean everyone of his voters will go that way. I expect Trump will gain a majority of them though. |
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Post by JoeinOz on Aug 23, 2024 20:56:36 GMT
Id be amazed if he wasn't endorsing Trump. Looks like Bobby wasn't feeling the JOY of the DNC! He has endorsed Trump but that doesn't mean everyone of his voters will go that way. I expect Trump will gain a majority of them though. I'd be surprised if it was decisive in any of the vital states. |
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Aug 23, 2024 21:00:13 GMT
Looks like Bobby wasn't feeling the JOY of the DNC! He has endorsed Trump but that doesn't mean everyone of his voters will go that way. I expect Trump will gain a majority of them though. I'd be surprised if it was decisive in any of the vital states. It's such a tight race that any number of factors could be decisive. I think the two most important things will be a) trump being restrained vs Trump being mental. B) democratic Party/mainstream media being able to keep up the charade about Harris being great without people remembering they never liked her much |
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Post by adri2008 on Aug 24, 2024 6:35:44 GMT
I'd be surprised if it was decisive in any of the vital states. It's such a tight race that any number of factors could be decisive. I think the two most important things will be a) trump being restrained vs Trump being mental. B) democratic Party/mainstream media being able to keep up the charade about Harris being great without people remembering they never liked her much This is a good summary. Kamala is a poor candidate. The current euphoria in democratic circles is more down to Biden withdrawing. |
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Post by lordb on Aug 24, 2024 7:50:44 GMT
It's such a tight race that any number of factors could be decisive. I think the two most important things will be a) trump being restrained vs Trump being mental. B) democratic Party/mainstream media being able to keep up the charade about Harris being great without people remembering they never liked her much This is a good summary. Kamala is a poor candidate. The current euphoria in democratic circles is more down to Biden withdrawing. 2 poor candidates then |
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Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Aug 24, 2024 8:04:42 GMT
This is a good summary. Kamala is a poor candidate. The current euphoria in democratic circles is more down to Biden withdrawing. 2 poor candidates then Biden withdrawing is a bit of a euphemism for shoved out of a top floor window 😂 they made him speak late on the first night and then shipped him out ASAP. The rest of the DNC sounded as though they were the opposition party desperate to out Trump as sitting president. 2 poor candidates indeed! |
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Post by lordb on Aug 24, 2024 8:07:28 GMT
Biden withdrawing is a bit of a euphemism for shoved out of a top floor window 😂 they made him speak late on the first night and then shipped him out ASAP. The rest of the DNC sounded as though they were the opposition party desperate to out Trump as sitting president. 2 poor candidates indeed! Weird isn't it Democrats are standing on an anti Trump platform whilst Trump doesn't stand for anything other than his own ego No one appears to believe in anything other than vote for/don't vote for President Homelander |
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Post by mjg13x on Aug 24, 2024 12:02:11 GMT
There were some leaks or rumours or something that Kennedy Jr is gonna drop out and endorse Trump. He probably cut a deal for some kind of payment in money or power. The betting markets flipped quickly on that, Kamala was about a 55:45 favourite and now it's a couple of points in Trump's favour. I can't remember any US election feeling this close? It's hard to tell if Kennedy's 2%/4% vote share will go if anywhere The last analysis i saw said he was getting his vote from 44% who voted Biden last time and 37% Trump. Whether the entry of Harris changes the dial who knows Looks like Kennedy and Trump are both in Arizona today albeit at different events so i don't think we'll have to wait long to find out if he's endorsing Trump The Bookies this side have the betting even money your choice. From what I’ve seen the analysts’ best guess is it’ll boost Trump’s margin by about 0.7 percentage points. Not a ton but every bit is crucial for both candidates in swing states. A lot of Kennedy’s supporters are fringey “burn down the two-party system” types who would never vote D or R. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 25, 2024 11:08:08 GMT
I'd be surprised if it was decisive in any of the vital states. It's such a tight race that any number of factors could be decisive. I think the two most important things will be a) trump being restrained vs Trump being mental. B) democratic Party/mainstream media being able to keep up the charade about Harris being great without people remembering they never liked her much The energy level coming from the collective sigh of relief from Biden dropping out is pretty wild. I've seen a few clips of Kamala and she looks way better than what I remember as being pretty poor showings in 2020 and earlier. Maybe it's my mind playing tricks . I can't see her becoming truly popular with most normal working people? It's a weird one. I think a Harris administration with a Democratic Congress should be able to do a lot of good for Americans compared with the alternative. But it's not like they'd ever be allowed to do anything major given the Trump stacked courts and the way the House and Senate work out. |
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Post by mickeythemaestro on Aug 25, 2024 11:41:13 GMT
It's such a tight race that any number of factors could be decisive. I think the two most important things will be a) trump being restrained vs Trump being mental. B) democratic Party/mainstream media being able to keep up the charade about Harris being great without people remembering they never liked her much The energy level coming from the collective sigh of relief from Biden dropping out is pretty wild. I've seen a few clips of Kamala and she looks way better than what I remember as being pretty poor showings in 2020 and earlier. Maybe it's my mind playing tricks . I can't see her becoming truly popular with most normal working people? It's a weird one. I think a Harris administration with a Democratic Congress should be able to do a lot of good for Americans compared with the alternative. But it's not like they'd ever be allowed to do anything major given the Trump stacked courts and the way the House and Senate work out. Just my opinion but its called the MSM gaslighting everyone and a large percentage of people wanting to be gaslit. But I guess they do this all the time. I personally find her irritating and lacking in wisdom. But I guess I could maybe be convinced she's a better option than Teflon don. Which really shouldn't be hard to do.. |
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Post by starkiller on Aug 25, 2024 13:35:14 GMT
It's such a tight race that any number of factors could be decisive. I think the two most important things will be a) trump being restrained vs Trump being mental. B) democratic Party/mainstream media being able to keep up the charade about Harris being great without people remembering they never liked her much The energy level coming from the collective sigh of relief from Biden dropping out is pretty wild. I've seen a few clips of Kamala and she looks way better than what I remember as being pretty poor showings in 2020 and earlier. Maybe it's my mind playing tricks . I can't see her becoming truly popular with most normal working people? It's a weird one. I think a Harris administration with a Democratic Congress should be able to do a lot of good for Americans compared with the alternative. But it's not like they'd ever be allowed to do anything major given the Trump stacked courts and the way the House and Senate work out. She's shit. No amount of hate for Trump, or the fact that she's an Indian black woman, will change that. |
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Post by musik on Aug 25, 2024 15:41:41 GMT
What's the difference between Harris, Kennedy and Trump politically?
😵
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 25, 2024 16:34:46 GMT
What's the difference between Harris, Kennedy and Trump politically? 😵 Kennedy is out. Based on what Trump and Biden did. Trump wants to basically act like a dictator and overthrow free and fair elections. Harris wants free and fair elections. Trump will help Putin and undermine NATO, Harris will help Ukraine and work with allies. Trump will push to cut healthcare for most working people and many veterans to save money for the richest. Democrats will try to continue to control costs and ensure more coverage. Trump will cut taxes mostly on the rich and blow up the deficit. Then he will argue that the deficit is so bad that everything has to be privatised and benefits for working people need to be cut. Harris will probably try to shift the tax burden to richer people and limit the deficit. Trump will encourage war criminals and police violence against people, Harris won't. Trump use the office of the presidency to enrich his businesses, Harris will not run any businesses or fill the government with her family. Trump will support internet company monopolies and their ability to slow down or control the sites you can visit so there won't be proper competition. Harris will prevent that. Trump will install judges who strip people of basic rights over their own bodies, like banning abortions and more extreme things. Harris will protect personal rights. Trump will support fossil fuel companies and polluters, making sure that they don't have to pay for poisoning people or fucking the climate. Harris will support investment in the future. Trump will try to make attempted immigrants suffer, like with the republican campaign of mass child abuse in the family separation policy. Harris will support funding the courts and the system to have due process and to deport unlawful immigrants without intentional brutality and child abuse. Trump will use federal powers and aid to punish states he sees as disloyal, blaming them if they suffer natural disasters. Harris will be a president for all Americans and will use the federal government to help any state that faces disasters like hurricanes, fires or earthquakes. This is just based on what Trump did and assuming Harris will be similar to Biden on these issues I find important. |
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