|
|
Post by OldStokie on Aug 25, 2024 17:16:08 GMT
I must say that I'm surprised that the polls show such a small swing back to the Democrats after Sleepy Joe resigned. The whole world and its dog thought the problem was SJ. But maybe Harris isn't such a popular choice with many Democrats?
OS.
|
|
|
|
Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Aug 25, 2024 17:54:42 GMT
It's such a tight race that any number of factors could be decisive. I think the two most important things will be a) trump being restrained vs Trump being mental. B) democratic Party/mainstream media being able to keep up the charade about Harris being great without people remembering they never liked her much The energy level coming from the collective sigh of relief from Biden dropping out is pretty wild. I've seen a few clips of Kamala and she looks way better than what I remember as being pretty poor showings in 2020 and earlier. Maybe it's my mind playing tricks . I can't see her becoming truly popular with most normal working people? It's a weird one. I think a Harris administration with a Democratic Congress should be able to do a lot of good for Americans compared with the alternative. But it's not like they'd ever be allowed to do anything major given the Trump stacked courts and the way the House and Senate work out. I think the energy level you mention is so fake that it feels almost dystopian but whether that's the case or not, it does seem to have worked so far. Maybe Harris sounds like Cicero compared to Trump and Biden because she can read a teleprompter but let's face it, if they truly believed she was good, it would have been her from the beginning. She was unpopular in the 2019 primary season and she was an unpopular VP. Hats off to Nancy Pelosi though, she can really organise a party. I remember the circus the Republicans had when they ousted the speaker recently- would never see that happen with the Dems, despite there being some big divisions under the surface on foreign policy etc |
|
|
|
Post by The Drunken Communist on Aug 25, 2024 17:59:34 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 26, 2024 8:06:00 GMT
I must say that I'm surprised that the polls show such a small swing back to the Democrats after Sleepy Joe resigned. The whole world and its dog thought the problem was SJ. But maybe Harris isn't such a popular choice with many Democrats? OS. It's just really divided in the US. So many people soaked in their propaganda bubble. I have a friend who just refuses to believe facts and just listens constantly to republican propaganda radio. It's often easily checkable facts too. He believes the federal reserve already cut interest rates this year "to help Biden". I showed him the fed rate history. He believed his podcasts over reality. He's a Christian and if literal Jesus was standing for the Democrats he would no doubt tell me how terrible Jesus is and how much better Trump is. |
|
|
|
Post by musik on Aug 26, 2024 9:16:43 GMT
What's the difference between Harris, Kennedy and Trump politically? 😵 Kennedy is out. Based on what Trump and Biden did. Trump wants to basically act like a dictator and overthrow free and fair elections. Harris wants free and fair elections. Trump will help Putin and undermine NATO, Harris will help Ukraine and work with allies. Trump will push to cut healthcare for most working people and many veterans to save money for the richest. Democrats will try to continue to control costs and ensure more coverage. Trump will cut taxes mostly on the rich and blow up the deficit. Then he will argue that the deficit is so bad that everything has to be privatised and benefits for working people need to be cut. Harris will probably try to shift the tax burden to richer people and limit the deficit. Trump will encourage war criminals and police violence against people, Harris won't. Trump use the office of the presidency to enrich his businesses, Harris will not run any businesses or fill the government with her family. Trump will support internet company monopolies and their ability to slow down or control the sites you can visit so there won't be proper competition. Harris will prevent that. Trump will install judges who strip people of basic rights over their own bodies, like banning abortions and more extreme things. Harris will protect personal rights. Trump will support fossil fuel companies and polluters, making sure that they don't have to pay for poisoning people or fucking the climate. Harris will support investment in the future. Trump will try to make attempted immigrants suffer, like with the republican campaign of mass child abuse in the family separation policy. Harris will support funding the courts and the system to have due process and to deport unlawful immigrants without intentional brutality and child abuse. Trump will use federal powers and aid to punish states he sees as disloyal, blaming them if they suffer natural disasters. Harris will be a president for all Americans and will use the federal government to help any state that faces disasters like hurricanes, fires or earthquakes. This is just based on what Trump did and assuming Harris will be similar to Biden on these issues I find important. Ok, I see. How likely is it that this Trump's manifesto will come in a printed leaflet version prior to the Election very soon? 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 26, 2024 9:44:38 GMT
I must say that I'm surprised that the polls show such a small swing back to the Democrats after Sleepy Joe resigned. The whole world and its dog thought the problem was SJ. But maybe Harris isn't such a popular choice with many Democrats? OS. I finally found the old Vs new 538 polling (some here. Trump was about 3.2% up vs Biden and now Harris is 3.6% up vs Trump. That's a pretty big swing over 5 weeks! I keep expecting it to reverse but who knows what'll happen. I think of that as a big swing because of how "sticky" the numbers are. If Harris managed another 6-7% swing she'd be competing in Florida and/or Texas. That seems basically impossible to me. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 7, 2024 16:21:14 GMT
This fits with what I've heard elsewhere. Supposedly Harris will read and question briefings before deciding what to do and that annoys lots of people.
According to the staff who briefed him, Trump doesn't like to read and they had to make things shorter, put in pictures and talk about Trump a lot. And that's before 8 years of blind rage and aging through his 70s messed with his brain.
A big difference between the candidates.
|
|
wapiti
Youth Player
Posts: 411
|
Post by wapiti on Sept 8, 2024 0:42:50 GMT
Best thing about Kamala.....she isn't Trump.
|
|
|
|
Post by iancransonsknees on Sept 8, 2024 3:12:38 GMT
Best thing about Kamala.....she isn't Trump. It's no different to here, just voting for the same shit sandwich. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 11, 2024 20:25:11 GMT
Only watched a few clips of the debates but she looked a bit... Smug to me? And I should know about looking smug.
Voters are far more critical of democratic candidates than Trump for the same things so my gut feeling is that her body language is gonna hurt her.
I still find it hard to see her winning over enough crucial Midwesterners without a ton of help from Walz or something.
She could lose Pennsylvia and still take the election if she massively surprises in some other states (e.g. North Carolina+Nevada or Arizona+Georgia) but polling currently doesn't look good for her chances.
|
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 22, 2024 17:09:49 GMT
The election is very very close. Nate Silver numbers for decisive states right now, with their electoral "points":
Michigan (15): 2.5% Harris
Wisconsin (10): 1.9% Harris
Pennsylvania (19): 1.5% Harris
*****WINNING LINE******
Nevada (6): 1.2% Harris
North Carolina (16): 0.1% Trump
Arizona (11): 0.7% Trump
Georgia (16): 0.8% Trump
The "WINNING LINE" would put Harris at exactly 270 and a win, assuming the weird subdistricts in Maine and Nebraska go as expected. If Harris only has a very close win though, I expect Republicans will use their statehouses, House majority and Supreme Court to try to overrule the election and give it to Trump. It would be a very "exciting" time.
The top three are kinda similar Midwest states so if Trump starts doing better in one then he'll probably do better in the others. You can imagine many combinations, e.g. if Trump takes Pennsylvania, then Harris could cancel it out with a combo like North Carolina + Nevada.
538 has Harris at 60% chance.
Betting markets have Harris at 53% chance.
It's amazingly close considering if Republicans win, this will be the last presidential election that would be even close to free and fair (of course, there are good arguments that in many Republican-run states like Texas, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia, the rules are already stacked to the point where elections are no longer "free and fair")
|
|
|
|
Post by redstriper on Sept 23, 2024 15:49:30 GMT
The election is very very close. Nate Silver numbers for decisive states right now, with their electoral "points": Michigan (15): 2.5% Harris Wisconsin (10): 1.9% Harris Pennsylvania (19): 1.5% Harris *****WINNING LINE****** Nevada (6): 1.2% Harris North Carolina (16): 0.1% Trump Arizona (11): 0.7% Trump Georgia (16): 0.8% Trump The "WINNING LINE" would put Harris at exactly 270 and a win, assuming the weird subdistricts in Maine and Nebraska go as expected. If Harris only has a very close win though, I expect Republicans will use their statehouses, House majority and Supreme Court to try to overrule the election and give it to Trump. It would be a very "exciting" time. The top three are kinda similar Midwest states so if Trump starts doing better in one then he'll probably do better in the others. You can imagine many combinations, e.g. if Trump takes Pennsylvania, then Harris could cancel it out with a combo like North Carolina + Nevada. 538 has Harris at 60% chance. Betting markets have Harris at 53% chance. It's amazingly close considering if Republicans win, this will be the last presidential election that would be even close to free and fair (of course, there are good arguments that in many Republican-run states like Texas, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia, the rules are already stacked to the point where elections are no longer "free and fair") It shouldn't have to be like this, she should win by a landslide. But sadly the sheer ignorance and stupidity of large tracts of humans never cases to amaze. |
|
|
|
Post by iancransonsknees on Sept 24, 2024 18:14:12 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by elystokie on Sept 24, 2024 18:44:46 GMT
"What should we do?" Obviously elect a big orange baboon Elon, who barely has the sense he was born with and should really be called Passion Fingers because he fucks everything he touches, happy to help 😀
|
|
|
|
Post by thehartshillbadger on Sept 24, 2024 19:55:08 GMT
"What should we do?" Obviously elect a big orange baboon Elon, who barely has the sense he was born with and should really be called Passion Fingers because he fucks everything he touches, happy to help 😀 Get a doobie down ya Ely😉 |
|
|
|
Post by elystokie on Sept 24, 2024 19:58:20 GMT
"What should we do?" Obviously elect a big orange baboon Elon, who barely has the sense he was born with and should really be called Passion Fingers because he fucks everything he touches, happy to help 😀 Get a doobie down ya Ely😉 You need have no worries on that score Badge 😉 |
|
|
|
Post by thehartshillbadger on Sept 24, 2024 19:59:27 GMT
Get a doobie down ya Ely😉 You need have no worries on that score Badge 😉 🤣 |
|
|
|
Post by elystokie on Sept 24, 2024 20:02:01 GMT
You need have no worries on that score Badge 😉 🤣 I had a text message this week from an NHSnoreply number asking me if I'd like more cannabis 😂 If only it came under free prescriptions 🤦 |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 25, 2024 16:10:52 GMT
Kamala Harris says she wants to expand Medicare's rights to negotiate drug prices. Republicans originally made it illegal and forced the government to pay what drugs companies tell them. Democrats' 2022 Inflation Reduction Act allowed some negotiations and the first round of new deals are expected to save $7.5bn next year, there should be more deals and savings announced.
Harris plan: make it legal for more negotiations. This will save Americans money and reduce the deficit, but at the cost of the profits of major drugs companies.
Trump plan: Trump has no plan but republicans will make it illegal for the government to negotiate. This will increase the deficit and force taxpayers and patients to hand over whatever corporations demand.
|
|
|
|
Post by elystokie on Sept 25, 2024 16:37:10 GMT
Kamala Harris says she wants to expand Medicare's rights to negotiate drug prices. Republicans originally made it illegal and forced the government to pay what drugs companies tell them. Democrats' 2022 Inflation Reduction Act allowed some negotiations and the first round of new deals are expected to save $7.5bn next year, there should be more deals and savings announced. Harris plan: make it legal for more negotiations. This will save Americans money and reduce the deficit, but at the cost of the profits of major drugs companies. Trump plan: Trump has no plan but republicans will make it illegal for the government to negotiate. This will increase the deficit and force taxpayers and patients to hand over whatever corporations demand. Trump probably has a 'concept of a plan'.. Mind you it took him 9 years to get that far with the Obamacare stuff 🤔 |
|
|
|
Post by iancransonsknees on Sept 29, 2024 17:11:08 GMT
Having just recently travelled through 3 US airports and experienced their security efforts this is insane.
|
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Sept 29, 2024 18:36:10 GMT
Having just recently travelled through 3 US airports and experienced their security efforts this is insane. Yeah. Sounds like it's not what you think of when you hear warrant, it's not a criminal case thing signed by a judge source. Sounds like this is a document they get to set up proceedings for things like overstaying a visa. Which would make sense if it's about making sure there is due process - you open proceedings and then deport if they're found to be breaking the law. I suspect this is part of why the Republicans killed the strong border bill - it was going to improve things without giving the government an excuse to strip rights like due process. They want something they can paint as a catastrophe so they can take more power. |
|
|
|
Post by iancransonsknees on Oct 7, 2024 6:08:32 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by musik on Oct 10, 2024 21:31:48 GMT
I must say that I'm surprised that the polls show such a small swing back to the Democrats after Sleepy Joe resigned. The whole world and its dog thought the problem was SJ. But maybe Harris isn't such a popular choice with many Democrats? OS. Just saw on tv here, illegal immigration is an important issue to many people over there. Trump said they eat their pets. Yesterday I realised many people don't want women to have abortion as an option. |
|
|
|
Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Oct 10, 2024 21:40:23 GMT
She recently called Viktor Orban a murderer in a televised interview. Is she watching Trump say stupid stuff and feeling left out or something? 😂
|
|
|
|
Post by Ariel Manto on Oct 10, 2024 21:46:37 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by JoeinOz on Oct 11, 2024 1:26:46 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by tuum on Oct 11, 2024 3:45:06 GMT
I had a text message this week from an NHSnoreply number asking me if I'd like more cannabis 😂 If only it came under free prescriptions 🤦 Wandering off topic for a bit and talking of free prescriptions. I am taking some medication long term. Here in Thailand, they cost me about £70 a month and I can buy without a prescription. The same meds in USA cost about £480 a month. In the UK I ran out of these meds and ended up having to pay £100 for 5mins to see an emergency GP in London to get a prescription. The cost of the meds were not at NHS cost. I had to pay a premium of about 2-2.5× NHS. I got them from Boots and even with the uplifted price I only paid £80 for a month. I think the US healthcare system is absolutely disgusting. For the life of me, I cannot understand why they do not comprehensively reform it. They don't have to go down the NHS model but a hybrid system like Australia may be of benefit to everyone, including insurance companies.It is not as if their health outcomes are better than the RoW. That is clearly not the case. |
|
|
|
Post by Gabrielzakuaniandjuliet on Oct 11, 2024 7:48:59 GMT
I understand anyone on the left will hate Orban but calling the prime minister of Hungary a murderer is just stupidity. She looks like an idiot. Also, CNN... really? |
|
|
|
Post by elystokie on Oct 11, 2024 7:55:50 GMT
I had a text message this week from an NHSnoreply number asking me if I'd like more cannabis 😂 If only it came under free prescriptions 🤦 Wandering off topic for a bit and talking of free prescriptions. I am taking some medication long term. Here in Thailand, they cost me about £70 a month and I can buy without a prescription. The same meds in USA cost about £480 a month. In the UK I ran out of these meds and ended up having to pay £100 for 5mins to see an emergency GP in London to get a prescription. The cost of the meds were not at NHS cost. I had to pay a premium of about 2-2.5× NHS. I got them from Boots and even with the uplifted price I only paid £80 for a month. I think the US healthcare system is absolutely disgusting. For the life of me, I cannot understand why they do not comprehensively reform it. They don't have to go down the NHS model but a hybrid system like Australia may be of benefit to everyone, including insurance companies.It is not as if their health outcomes are better than the RoW. That is clearly not the case. They're getting rinsed by the big Pharma companies in the US it seems, probably why pharmaceutical companies are the biggest contributors (by a considerable margin) when it comes to 'lobbying' over there. |
|
