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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 7, 2024 15:13:51 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are:
1 Go to the right and take on Reform.
2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform.
3 Go to the right and absorb Reform.
4 Go to the centre and take on Reform.
5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform.
There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election.
Pass the popcorn...
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 7, 2024 15:29:36 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are: 1 Go to the right and take on Reform. 2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform. 3 Go to the right and absorb Reform. 4 Go to the centre and take on Reform. 5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform. There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election. Pass the popcorn... Good summary. It's a problem they've not really had to deal with before, at least not in parliamentary terms. UKIP provided a similar challenge previously, albeit via European electoral success, an avenue which is now closed to Reform. That led to the disaster that is Brexit, as an attempt to keep the Tory party from fracturing. It's ironic that, even without their bête noire Europe as an issue, they're wrestling with the same potential for splintering once again. It's going to be interesting how they handle Farage. Front-runner Badenoch has already said it'd be a disaster to let Farage into the Tory Party.
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Post by thisisouryear on Jul 7, 2024 15:57:09 GMT
They will likely join with Reform and Farage to be the leader. The Tories don't care how they get power and if Farage is what it takes then Farage is what they will get. The Tories will always have their own interests ahead of the people that won't change
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 7, 2024 15:57:18 GMT
I hope they disband
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 7, 2024 16:11:17 GMT
They will likely join with Reform and Farage to be the leader. The Tories don't care how they get power and if Farage is what it takes then Farage is what they will get. The Tories will always have their own interests ahead of the people that won't change I agree their primary driver will be to regain power but absorbing Reform and making Farage leader isn't necessarily going to make that happen. You can't just add the Tory vote share to the Reform vote share and assume that will increase their overall vote share. Some Reform UK supporters will feel betrayed if Farage goes over to the Tories and will either prop up a rump Reform UK, form another party or join the ranks of the disaffected voter. Also many centre ground supporters won't support a party headed by Farage and join the exodus of the centre right to the Lib Dems. Depending on how things go the Tory vote share could end up being reduced. There will be alot of influential Tories who will try to push the party back to the centre ground where elections are usefully won and lost. It's going to be a very interesting power struggle and a shit to the right isn't a foregone conclusion.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 7, 2024 16:12:30 GMT
Well so do I probably for different reasons but that really isn't going to happen.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 7, 2024 16:19:26 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are: 1 Go to the right and take on Reform. 2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform. 3 Go to the right and absorb Reform. 4 Go to the centre and take on Reform. 5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform. There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election. Pass the popcorn... Good summary. It's a problem they've not really had to deal with before, at least not in parliamentary terms. UKIP provided a similar challenge previously, albeit via European electoral success, an avenue which is now closed to Reform. That led to the disaster that is Brexit, as an attempt to keep the Tory party from fracturing. It's ironic that, even without their bête noire Europe as an issue, they're wrestling with the same potential for splintering once again. It's going to be interesting how they handle Farage. Front-runner Badenoch has already said it'd be a disaster to let Farage into the Tory Party. Badenoch would be a statement appointment. I know of some die hard Tories who refused to vote Tory under Sunak because he was the wrong colour. A politically correct right wing party would be an interesting proposition.
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Post by thisisouryear on Jul 7, 2024 17:01:43 GMT
They will likely join with Reform and Farage to be the leader. The Tories don't care how they get power and if Farage is what it takes then Farage is what they will get. The Tories will always have their own interests ahead of the people that won't change I agree their primary driver will be to regain power but absorbing Reform and making Farage leader isn't necessarily going to make that happen. You can't just add the Tory vote share to the Reform vote share and assume that will increase their overall vote share. Some Reform UK supporters will feel betrayed if Farage goes over to the Tories and will either prop up a rump Reform UK, form another party or join the ranks of the disaffected voter. Also many centre ground supporters won't support a party headed by Farage and join the exodus of the centre right to the Lib Dems. Depending on how things go the Tory vote share could end up being reduced. There will be alot of influential Tories who will try to push the party back to the centre ground where elections are usefully won and lost. It's going to be a very interesting power struggle and a shit to the right isn't a foregone conclusion. Farage is the Reform party, where he goes his voters go. If he was leader of the conservatives they would be more than happy as it's a step closer to him pushing his agenda which they all agree with. Tory voters won't stop voting Tory because of Farage it's in their nature to vote Tory. Even the shite that's gone on since Brexit didn't stop them. Farage in power will also lift a few people who didn't vote off their arses to vote. He has a lot of voters who didn't bother vote because they knew this election he was never going to win. If they do merge Labour will have a hard job keeping them out so he has to make a lot of progress if he is going to attract any new voters.
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Post by Gods on Jul 7, 2024 17:10:56 GMT
They could just ignore Reform and determine their own destiny.
I think Reform's major target audience is not the aspirational and affluent its the old brexit mob in our provincial cities and run down seaside towns.
I think it's Labour who need to start worrying about Reform. Tony Blair told them as much today. They need to get a grip on legal migration quick smart, if they carry on dishing out 1.2 million immigration visas like the Conservatives did this year Reform will kill them.
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 7, 2024 17:22:38 GMT
They will take there time select a leader to which they will unite behind Win a few bi elections and come the next election probably win at least a hundred and thirty of the seats they lost back
Reform will probably collapse within three years I can’t see farage lasting more than three years as being a mp will tie his hands to much
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 17:53:56 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are: 1 Go to the right and take on Reform. 2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform. 3 Go to the right and absorb Reform. 4 Go to the centre and take on Reform. 5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform. There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election. Pass the popcorn... 6. Do nothing, wait for Labour to screw up and regain power through default.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 7, 2024 17:54:52 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are: 1 Go to the right and take on Reform. 2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform. 3 Go to the right and absorb Reform. 4 Go to the centre and take on Reform. 5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform. There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election. Pass the popcorn... 6. Do nothing, wait for Labour to screw up and regain power through default. That’s pretty much the top and bottom of it
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Post by Gods on Jul 7, 2024 18:00:29 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are: 1 Go to the right and take on Reform. 2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform. 3 Go to the right and absorb Reform. 4 Go to the centre and take on Reform. 5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform. There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election. Pass the popcorn... 6. Do nothing, wait for Labour to screw up and regain power through default. Yes. And as stated earlier its really Labour to whom Reform are mainly a threat now.
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Post by stokeson on Jul 7, 2024 18:01:04 GMT
They will take there time select a leader to which they will unite behind Win a few bi elections and come the next election probably win at least a hundred and thirty of the seats they lost back Reform will probably collapse within three years I can’t see farage lasting more than three years as being a mp will tie his hands to much Or they could tear themselves apart trying to "Out Right " themselves and disappear..........
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 7, 2024 18:06:49 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are: 1 Go to the right and take on Reform. 2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform. 3 Go to the right and absorb Reform. 4 Go to the centre and take on Reform. 5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform. There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election. Pass the popcorn... 6. Do nothing, wait for Labour to screw up and regain power through default. I would normally agree with this but they have been so bad that I can't see anyone of talent or principle wanting to join, therefore they will have little to choose from. It could be terminal. Obviously Starmer has a difficult task.....as anyone would have
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Post by professorplump on Jul 7, 2024 18:10:38 GMT
In my opinion the Tories have to stay as close to the centre ground as they can. If they move too far to the right then they will lose votes in the South West and the Surrey stockbroker belt to the Lib Dems. It would be a mistake to lurch to the right. Badenoch will most likely be Leader. I think Braverman and possibly Jenrick will end up defecting to Reform. We may see an alliance similar to that of the SDP / Liberal alliance of the 1980's however I'm not sure that it would be workable.
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Post by Robo10 on Jul 7, 2024 18:15:20 GMT
Only an opinion but
- over 85% of voters didnt vote Reform. Their right wing, jingoistic party, people and leader are not what most people want, the vote they got is only just bigger than the UKIP vote 7 years or so ago.
- most governments are formed by those who control the centre ground. Should Labour do a good job and restore some normality, a lot of centre right Tories will vote for them, while if the Tories lurched right to try to tempt Reform voters, I think that would alienate even the most loyal centrist Tory.
For what its worth, the opening 48 hours of Starmers reign have been very positive, statements and policies being made clear, a big deal of working together and not apart (him going to physically see the devolved leaders is a million miles from the Tory way), Cooper laying out the borderforce challenge, Lammy the Ukraine/Israel challenge. Grown ups given key jobs who have specialisms.
Its a million miles away already from the clown show of the last 10 years.
Farage I suspect will get found out more now in the public eye, given he has to submit accounts of where his funding comes from, and he will discover that having 5 MPs doesnt mean he can dominate PMQs....and can be asked some difficult questions on some of his out there policies that appear on the surface to be fairly flimsy! And I cant see him doing surgeries in Clacton with folk moaning about potholes or GP appointments.
There is also a scandal brewing that many of the 'candidates' they fielded dont seem to exist (but took votes)
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 7, 2024 18:35:03 GMT
They will likely join with Reform and Farage to be the leader. The Tories don't care how they get power and if Farage is what it takes then Farage is what they will get. The Tories will always have their own interests ahead of the people that won't change I agree their primary driver will be to regain power but absorbing Reform and making Farage leader isn't necessarily going to make that happen. You can't just add the Tory vote share to the Reform vote share and assume that will increase their overall vote share. Some Reform UK supporters will feel betrayed if Farage goes over to the Tories and will either prop up a rump Reform UK, form another party or join the ranks of the disaffected voter. Also many centre ground supporters won't support a party headed by Farage and join the exodus of the centre right to the Lib Dems. Depending on how things go the Tory vote share could end up being reduced. There will be alot of influential Tories who will try to push the party back to the centre ground where elections are usefully won and lost. It's going to be a very interesting power struggle and a shit to the right isn't a foregone conclusion. There's a Freudian slip if ever there was one 😄
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 18:35:57 GMT
6. Do nothing, wait for Labour to screw up and regain power through default. I would normally agree with this but they have been so bad that I can't see anyone of talent or principle wanting to join, therefore they will have little to choose from. It could be terminal. Obviously Starmer has a difficult task.....as anyone would have Blair entered a war illegally and Labour were in power when the economy collapsed to a degree that it’s never really bounced back from. Yet, 14 years later they are back in power. It’s driven by the statement “a vote for anyone other than x is actually a vote for y”.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 7, 2024 18:38:38 GMT
6. Do nothing, wait for Labour to screw up and regain power through default. Yes. And as stated earlier its really Labour to whom Reform are mainly a threat now. How does that work?
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jul 7, 2024 18:59:09 GMT
I know a number of die-hard Tory voters who would never vote Tory with Farage as leader.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 7, 2024 19:09:01 GMT
I know a number of die-hard Tory voters who would never vote Tory with Farage as leader. They needn’t worry
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 7, 2024 19:10:08 GMT
Good summary. It's a problem they've not really had to deal with before, at least not in parliamentary terms. UKIP provided a similar challenge previously, albeit via European electoral success, an avenue which is now closed to Reform. That led to the disaster that is Brexit, as an attempt to keep the Tory party from fracturing. It's ironic that, even without their bête noire Europe as an issue, they're wrestling with the same potential for splintering once again. It's going to be interesting how they handle Farage. Front-runner Badenoch has already said it'd be a disaster to let Farage into the Tory Party. Badenoch would be a statement appointment. I know of some die hard Tories who refused to vote Tory under Sunak because he was the wrong colour. A politically correct right wing party would be an interesting proposition. Do you call these people your friends?
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Post by Olgrligm on Jul 7, 2024 19:14:35 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever.
In this election, they capture their usual voters, plus a significant chunk of disaffected Conservatives. In effect, they've had their day in the Sun as a protest vote. Are the traditional Conservative voters still going to want to punish the Conservatives for their ineptitude in Government in five years time? Or will they be more minded to want to get Labour out? I don't think that Reform are not really a threat to Labour because the disaffected traditional Labour voters already jumped ship three elections ago. Even then, Reform's support shrunk when it came to the real thing and they fell well short of what the pollsters, including the exit poll, expected.
The size of Labour's majority and Reform being only the joint sixth largest party - level with the DUP, one seat ahead of the Greens and Plaid - means that they'll be able to achieve precisely nothing in Parliament, if they bother turning up at all. There will be no platform for Farage at PMQs unless he gets very lucky in the ballot. They're going to struggle to maintain their vote share next time around.
It's win-win for Labour. If the Conservatives fail to address the Reform problem then they'll continue to suffer a massive split vote and lose the next election, and if the Conservatives lurch miles to the right in order to devour Reform then Labour can just continue to win big majorities by occupying the centre ground.
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Post by gawa on Jul 7, 2024 19:19:29 GMT
They could always go towards the centre left too which I feel they'd have much more success as an opposition to labour than if they drifted towards the right.
The further right have gained 200k votes in 10 years. And challenging reform will keep their vote divided.
Unfortunately I doubt they'll do that given the MPs which remain in the party. They'd need more people in the Rory Stewart mould to do so rather than the current lot.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 7, 2024 19:19:51 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever. In this election, they capture their usual voters, plus a significant chunk of disaffected Conservatives. In effect, they've had their day in the Sun as a protest vote. Are the traditional Conservative voters still going to want to punish the Conservatives for their ineptitude in Government in five years time? Or will they be more minded to want to get Labour out? I don't think that Reform are not really a threat to Labour because the disaffected traditional Labour voters already jumped ship three elections ago. Even then, Reform's support shrunk when it came to the real thing and they fell well short of what the pollsters, including the exit poll, expected. The size of Labour's majority and Reform being only the joint sixth largest party - level with the DUP, one seat ahead of the Greens and Plaid - means that they'll be able to achieve precisely nothing in Parliament, if they bother turning up at all. There will be no platform for Farage at PMQs unless he gets very lucky in the ballot. They're going to struggle to maintain their vote share next time around. It's win-win for Labour. If the Conservatives fail to address the Reform problem then they'll continue to suffer a massive split vote and lose the next election, and if the Conservatives lurch miles to the right in order to devour Reform then Labour can just continue to win big majorities by occupying the centre ground. This, in a nutshell, is precisely the problem the parliamentary right currently faces. Next year's local elections might be interesting for Reform though (and further split the rightwing vote!)
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Post by gawa on Jul 7, 2024 19:22:15 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever.[ I disagree. In a democratic electoral system they'd have substantially more MPs and influence, and that electoral reform will come sooner rather than later in my opinion. Judging them by seats isn't representative of the support they have. They nearly got half the votes that Labour did.
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Post by Olgrligm on Jul 7, 2024 19:22:54 GMT
A couple of other things to consider about Reform: 1) Given that he's not going to get the platform that he wants in Parliament and he's as good as told the people of Clacton that he's not really interested in being a constituency MP, how long is Farage going to stick around for? Will we even see him in this country in October and November? Will he be bothered in five years time? 2) I wonder what will come of the invisible candidate story that's starting to be picked up by different news outlets? Byline Times and Private Eye have both reported on it: bylinetimes.com/2024/07/03/reform-uks-invisible-candidates-who-are-they-hiding/
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 7, 2024 19:23:08 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever. In this election, they capture their usual voters, plus a significant chunk of disaffected Conservatives. In effect, they've had their day in the Sun as a protest vote. Are the traditional Conservative voters still going to want to punish the Conservatives for their ineptitude in Government in five years time? Or will they be more minded to want to get Labour out? I don't think that Reform are not really a threat to Labour because the disaffected traditional Labour voters already jumped ship three elections ago. Even then, Reform's support shrunk when it came to the real thing and they fell well short of what the pollsters, including the exit poll, expected. The size of Labour's majority and Reform being only the joint sixth largest party - level with the DUP, one seat ahead of the Greens and Plaid - means that they'll be able to achieve precisely nothing in Parliament, if they bother turning up at all. There will be no platform for Farage at PMQs unless he gets very lucky in the ballot. They're going to struggle to maintain their vote share next time around. It's win-win for Labour. If the Conservatives fail to address the Reform problem then they'll continue to suffer a massive split vote and lose the next election, and if the Conservatives lurch miles to the right in order to devour Reform then Labour can just continue to win big majorities by occupying the centre ground. This, in a nutshell, is precisely the problem the parliamentary right currently faces. Next year's local elections might be interesting for Reform though (and further split the rightwing vote!) It’s up to the government to keep Reform at arms length by doing something drastic about reducing immigration. If they can do that, which I doubt, then Reform will soon become insignificant. If they can’t then it’ll only strengthen Reforms pull to disenchanted voters. Immigration is a huge issue, only my opinion of course which I know counts for fuck all obviously😉
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Post by Olgrligm on Jul 7, 2024 19:26:58 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever.[ I disagree. In a democratic electoral system they'd have substantially more MPs and influence, and that electoral reform will come sooner rather than later in my opinion. Judging them by seats isn't representative of the support they have. They nearly got half the votes that Labour did. We have the system that we have and it's not changing. Four seats and nobbling the Conservatives is as good as it will ever get for them, and that's with huge numbers of Conservative voters putting in a protest vote against their own government. What happens to them in the next election when those people just want to get Labour out? It seems to me that Reform are done as anything other than an amusing election spoiler for Labour and the Lib Dems. I also don't agree that our system is undemocratic, either, but that's an argument for another day. I've said my piece on that elsewhere.
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