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Post by 4372 on Jul 7, 2024 19:29:01 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever. In this election, they capture their usual voters, plus a significant chunk of disaffected Conservatives. In effect, they've had their day in the Sun as a protest vote. Are the traditional Conservative voters still going to want to punish the Conservatives for their ineptitude in Government in five years time? Or will they be more minded to want to get Labour out? I don't think that Reform are not really a threat to Labour because the disaffected traditional Labour voters already jumped ship three elections ago. Even then, Reform's support shrunk when it came to the real thing and they fell well short of what the pollsters, including the exit poll, expected. The size of Labour's majority and Reform being only the joint sixth largest party - level with the DUP, one seat ahead of the Greens and Plaid - means that they'll be able to achieve precisely nothing in Parliament, if they bother turning up at all. There will be no platform for Farage at PMQs unless he gets very lucky in the ballot. They're going to struggle to maintain their vote share next time around. It's win-win for Labour. If the Conservatives fail to address the Reform problem then they'll continue to suffer a massive split vote and lose the next election, and if the Conservatives lurch miles to the right in order to devour Reform then Labour can just continue to win big majorities by occupying the centre ground. At the risk of being pedantic, have you used a double negative in Paragraph 2?
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Post by wannabee on Jul 7, 2024 19:50:07 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever. In this election, they capture their usual voters, plus a significant chunk of disaffected Conservatives. In effect, they've had their day in the Sun as a protest vote. Are the traditional Conservative voters still going to want to punish the Conservatives for their ineptitude in Government in five years time? Or will they be more minded to want to get Labour out? I don't think that Reform are not really a threat to Labour because the disaffected traditional Labour voters already jumped ship three elections ago. Even then, Reform's support shrunk when it came to the real thing and they fell well short of what the pollsters, including the exit poll, expected. The size of Labour's majority and Reform being only the joint sixth largest party - level with the DUP, one seat ahead of the Greens and Plaid - means that they'll be able to achieve precisely nothing in Parliament, if they bother turning up at all. There will be no platform for Farage at PMQs unless he gets very lucky in the ballot. They're going to struggle to maintain their vote share next time around. It's win-win for Labour. If the Conservatives fail to address the Reform problem then they'll continue to suffer a massive split vote and lose the next election, and if the Conservatives lurch miles to the right in order to devour Reform then Labour can just continue to win big majorities by occupying the centre ground. This Reform are not really a Party in the truest sense and I don't mean being a Limited Company There are no shortcuts to building a Political Party you must go back to the grassroots work in the Constituency try and win local Elections. I'm not convinced Farage and Reform have the attention span to do this. If Conservatives move to the Right to rival Reform they will be in the wilderness for even longer The Conservatives couldn't stand on their record of last 14 years and particularly the last 5. Reforms vote was swelled by disgruntled Conservatives who didn't want to vote Labour. Next time round in 5 years they will not have those excesses to defend depending on how Labour perform will depend on whether they can attack their record in Government
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Post by Gods on Jul 7, 2024 19:57:42 GMT
Yes. And as stated earlier its really Labour to whom Reform are mainly a threat now. How does that work? Labour is the incumbent party with two thirds of the seats and as Farrage said Reform are coming for them. Look where Reform won or nearly won, its not traditional Tory territory in the Surrey Hills is it? Farrage stood and won in the seat with the lowest life expectancy in the country, hardly prime Tory country!
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Post by smallthorner on Jul 7, 2024 20:30:41 GMT
Hope the wankers are wiped off the political map.
Will not happen of course but if Labour can keep centre ground and not commit a major fook up then there is no reason why they can't keep in power for a decade.
Lib Dems keep going steady and Reform keep taking people away from the Tories. What's not to like.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 7, 2024 20:34:17 GMT
Labour is the incumbent party with two thirds of the seats and as Farrage said Reform are coming for them. Look where Reform won or nearly won, its not traditional Tory territory in the Surrey Hills is it? Farrage stood and won in the seat with the lowest life expectancy in the country, hardly prime Tory country! They won in Brexit territory. As expected. There are now two right-wing parties to vote for in each constituency. Unless they do deals, it means a diluted anti-Labour vote. I would imagine Labour would be quite relaxed to see a few more Reform MPs at the inevitable by-elections over the next five years. Because no-one thinks Reform are ever going to form a government so it's just fewer seats available for the Tories (who could form a govt) to win.
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Post by numpty40 on Jul 7, 2024 20:38:47 GMT
Something nobody seems to have really mentioned is that this is pretty much as good as it's ever going to get for Reform, no matter what Farage says about this being the start of a revolution or whatever. In this election, they capture their usual voters, plus a significant chunk of disaffected Conservatives. In effect, they've had their day in the Sun as a protest vote. Are the traditional Conservative voters still going to want to punish the Conservatives for their ineptitude in Government in five years time? Or will they be more minded to want to get Labour out? I don't think that Reform are not really a threat to Labour because the disaffected traditional Labour voters already jumped ship three elections ago. Even then, Reform's support shrunk when it came to the real thing and they fell well short of what the pollsters, including the exit poll, expected. The size of Labour's majority and Reform being only the joint sixth largest party - level with the DUP, one seat ahead of the Greens and Plaid - means that they'll be able to achieve precisely nothing in Parliament, if they bother turning up at all. There will be no platform for Farage at PMQs unless he gets very lucky in the ballot. They're going to struggle to maintain their vote share next time around. It's win-win for Labour. If the Conservatives fail to address the Reform problem then they'll continue to suffer a massive split vote and lose the next election, and if the Conservatives lurch miles to the right in order to devour Reform then Labour can just continue to win big majorities by occupying the centre ground. This Reform are not really a Party in the truest sense and I don't mean being a Limited Company There are no shortcuts to building a Political Party you must go back to the grassroots work in the Constituency try and win local Elections. I'm not convinced Farage and Reform have the attention span to do this. If Conservatives move to the Right to rival Reform they will be in the wilderness for even longer The Conservatives couldn't stand on their record of last 14 years and particularly the last 5. Reforms vote was swelled by disgruntled Conservatives who didn't want to vote Labour. Next time round in 5 years they will not have those excesses to defend depending on how Labour perform will depend on whether they can attack their record in Government Not often I agree with you but you're absolutely right. If the tories lurch even further to the right trying to recapture the Reform vote they will lose even more support if possible. The UK is a tolerant country and centre of left or right normally wins the day for a party as shown by this election. The tories need a complete overhaul and a leader strong enough to fuck off the more extreme elements of the party, find a more charismatic Keir and job done.
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Post by Olgrligm on Jul 7, 2024 20:58:03 GMT
Labour is the incumbent party with two thirds of the seats and as Farrage said Reform are coming for them. Look where Reform won or nearly won, its not traditional Tory territory in the Surrey Hills is it? Farrage stood and won in the seat with the lowest life expectancy in the country, hardly prime Tory country! Clacton 2010 Conservative 2015 UKIP 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative Great Yarmouth 2010 Conservative 2015 Conservative 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative South Basildon and East Thurrock 2010 Conservative 2015 Conservative 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative Boston and Skegness 1997 Conservative 2001 Conservative 2005 Conservative 2010 Conservative 2015 Conservative 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative I'll give you Ashfield, which was Labour territory until the Conservatives won it in 2019.
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Post by Gods on Jul 7, 2024 22:11:05 GMT
Labour is the incumbent party with two thirds of the seats and as Farrage said Reform are coming for them. Look where Reform won or nearly won, its not traditional Tory territory in the Surrey Hills is it? Farrage stood and won in the seat with the lowest life expectancy in the country, hardly prime Tory country! They won in Brexit territory. As expected. There are now two right-wing parties to vote for in each constituency. Unless they do deals, it means a diluted anti-Labour vote. I would imagine Labour would be quite relaxed to see a few more Reform MPs at the inevitable by-elections over the next five years. Because no-one thinks Reform are ever going to form a government so it's just fewer seats available for the Tories (who could form a govt) to win. Brexit territory is Labour territory. Right now Labour have some traditional Conservative seats on loan for this parliament. Within 5 seconds flat of Labour declaring swathes of the green belt the 'grey belt' and encouraging developers to build on it with zero new roads and schools and hospitals those seats will go back to the conservatives faster than you can say jack robinson. And folks will be giving their heads a wobble and asking themselves why the flying fuck did I vote labour in the first place?!
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Post by smallthorner on Jul 7, 2024 22:46:05 GMT
They won in Brexit territory. As expected. There are now two right-wing parties to vote for in each constituency. Unless they do deals, it means a diluted anti-Labour vote. I would imagine Labour would be quite relaxed to see a few more Reform MPs at the inevitable by-elections over the next five years. Because no-one thinks Reform are ever going to form a government so it's just fewer seats available for the Tories (who could form a govt) to win. Brexit territory is Labour territory. Right now Labour have some traditional Conservative seats on loan for this parliament. Within 5 seconds flat of Labour declaring swathes of the green belt the 'grey belt' and encouraging developers to build on it with zero new roads and schools and hospitals those seats will go back to the conservatives faster than you can say jack robinson. And folks will be giving their heads a wobble and asking themselves why the flying fuck did I vote labour in the first place?! 🙄
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Post by spitthedog on Jul 8, 2024 0:33:34 GMT
I think if the Tories move closer to Reform, a lot of the centre-right members will join the Labour Party and that will further kill off their party.
The have got to reclaim the centre if they are to have any future. If they do go towards the Centre that might extend the life span of Reform UK in the short term but Reform UK will die off pretty soon, because they have no realistic chance of getting anywhere near Government and can only ever be a protest vote. Farage will get bored after a while when this penny drops.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 8, 2024 5:12:17 GMT
Labour is the incumbent party with two thirds of the seats and as Farrage said Reform are coming for them. Look where Reform won or nearly won, its not traditional Tory territory in the Surrey Hills is it? Farrage stood and won in the seat with the lowest life expectancy in the country, hardly prime Tory country! Clacton 2010 Conservative 2015 UKIP 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative Great Yarmouth 2010 Conservative 2015 Conservative 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative South Basildon and East Thurrock 2010 Conservative 2015 Conservative 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative Boston and Skegness 1997 Conservative 2001 Conservative 2005 Conservative 2010 Conservative 2015 Conservative 2017 Conservative 2019 Conservative I'll give you Ashfield, which was Labour territory until the Conservatives won it in 2019. If UKIP hadn’t split the Tory vote it would have turned blue in 2015/2017 as well so the seeds were already sown……
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Post by foster on Jul 8, 2024 6:25:45 GMT
I think if the Tories move closer to Reform, a lot of the centre-right members will join the Labour Party and that will further kill off their party. The have got to reclaim the centre if they are to have any future. If they do go towards the Centre that might extend the life span of Reform UK in the short term but Reform UK will die off pretty soon, because they have no realistic chance of getting anywhere near Government and can only ever be a protest vote. Farage will get bored after a while when this penny drops. If immigration isn't sorted and radical Islam is allowed to continue growing then Reform isn't going anywhere. Add in a couple of terrorist attacks and they will only get stronger. The only party that can end Reform now is Labour by addressing these issues imo. The Tories have proven that they can't.
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Post by Gods on Jul 8, 2024 7:03:16 GMT
I think if the Tories move closer to Reform, a lot of the centre-right members will join the Labour Party and that will further kill off their party. The have got to reclaim the centre if they are to have any future. If they do go towards the Centre that might extend the life span of Reform UK in the short term but Reform UK will die off pretty soon, because they have no realistic chance of getting anywhere near Government and can only ever be a protest vote. Farage will get bored after a while when this penny drops. If immigration isn't sorted and radical Islam is allowed to continue growing then Reform isn't going anywhere. Add in a couple of terrorist attacks and they will only get stronger. The only party that can end Reform now is Labour by addressing these issues imo. The Tories have proven that they can't. Labour must be acutely aware of this. In case not Tony Blair reminded them yesterday. The fact that Reform are in 2nd place in 100 Labour seats should also help keep the heat on them. Question is do they have the desire? Its deeply uncomfortable territory for them.
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Post by Gods on Jul 8, 2024 7:14:02 GMT
Oh and some of this is with Jonathan Reynolds the new Business Secretary.
He is coming in to devise a 10 year plan to incent companies to hire from the UK rather than more cheaply from overseas.
But before his feet have touched the ground the Unite Union have dragged him off to Port Talbot and told him to ask Rachel Reeves for a million quid a day to save 1,800 jobs at the iconic steel works.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 8, 2024 8:15:11 GMT
After a massive defeat where do the Tories go now? Seems to me the options are: 1 Go to the right and take on Reform. 2 Go to the right and make an alliance with Reform. 3 Go to the right and absorb Reform. 4 Go to the centre and take on Reform. 5 Go to the centre and make an alliance with Reform. There are challenges and consequences whatever they do but whatever happens it has profound implications for the future of politics in the UK and the next election. Pass the popcorn... 6. Do nothing, wait for Labour to screw up and regain power through default. So go for a leader who can unite the centre and the right an put together an agenda that appeases both wings if the party? That's what Sunak tried and failed to do. It's an option and the upcoming election will determine if that's the approach. Question is who is that leader? Penny Mordant was bring touted as that solution but she isn't an option anymore.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 8, 2024 8:18:51 GMT
This Reform are not really a Party in the truest sense and I don't mean being a Limited Company There are no shortcuts to building a Political Party you must go back to the grassroots work in the Constituency try and win local Elections. I'm not convinced Farage and Reform have the attention span to do this. If Conservatives move to the Right to rival Reform they will be in the wilderness for even longer The Conservatives couldn't stand on their record of last 14 years and particularly the last 5. Reforms vote was swelled by disgruntled Conservatives who didn't want to vote Labour. Next time round in 5 years they will not have those excesses to defend depending on how Labour perform will depend on whether they can attack their record in Government Not often I agree with you but you're absolutely right. If the tories lurch even further to the right trying to recapture the Reform vote they will lose even more support if possible. The UK is a tolerant country and centre of left or right normally wins the day for a party as shown by this election. The tories need a complete overhaul and a leader strong enough to fuck off the more extreme elements of the party, find a more charismatic Keir and job done. I agree. The risk they face presently is twofold: they don't have a charismatic centre-ground candidate. All of the headline-grabbers are hard right nutjobs like Braverman, Patel and Badenoch. Secondly, the membership, if given an opportunity to vote, will almost definitely choose one of those. So, does the parliamentary party ignore the membership and install their own centrist leader to try to fight on the middle ground, which, imo, is definitely the place to be. But that risks alienating the membership and driving them to Reform. Or do they allow the membership the chance to install an even further right loon? (Personally, I'd think fuck the membership, they voted for Johnson and Truss, they're fucking idiots!). They're in a bit of a bind, the Tories.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 8, 2024 8:23:20 GMT
Badenoch would be a statement appointment. I know of some die hard Tories who refused to vote Tory under Sunak because he was the wrong colour. A politically correct right wing party would be an interesting proposition. Do you call these people your friends? I have some friends who vote Tory and have a couple of friends who voted Reform. The Tories I mentioned who defected to Reform UK for racist reasons are relations of two friends. I don't have any racist friends and I doubt I could maintain a friendship with a racist - it wouldn't take long for the friendship to break up by mutual consent.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 8, 2024 8:41:09 GMT
Do you call these people your friends? I have some friends who vote Tory and have a couple of friends who voted Reform. The Tories I mentioned who defected to Reform UK for racist reasons are relations of two friends. I don't have any racist friends and I doubt I could maintain a friendship with a racist - it wouldn't take long for the friendship to break up by mutual consent. Indeed
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 8, 2024 8:45:42 GMT
Not often I agree with you but you're absolutely right. If the tories lurch even further to the right trying to recapture the Reform vote they will lose even more support if possible. The UK is a tolerant country and centre of left or right normally wins the day for a party as shown by this election. The tories need a complete overhaul and a leader strong enough to fuck off the more extreme elements of the party, find a more charismatic Keir and job done. I agree. The risk they face presently is twofold: they don't have a charismatic centre-ground candidate. All of the headline-grabbers are hard right nutjobs like Braverman, Patel and Badenoch. Secondly, the membership, if given an opportunity to vote, will almost definitely choose one of those. So, does the parliamentary party ignore the membership and install their own centrist leader to try to fight on the middle ground, which, imo, is definitely the place to be. But that risks alienating the membership and driving them to Reform. Or do they allow the membership the chance to install an even further right loon? (Personally, I'd think fuck the membership, they voted for Johnson and Truss, they're fucking idiots!). They're in a bit of a bind, the Tories. I think it is difficult to know which way things could go. Steady Starmer could be ( in reality or perceived as) a complete success, thereby not letting any opposition a way in for 10, 15 years. I recognise that the Tories , the " natural party of government " are brilliant at recouping and resurrection....but I honestly believe things may have changed this time, because of the emergence of Reform. They could decline. The Lib Dems grow in strength? I would not dismiss Farage's appeal to BOTH traditional Labour and Tory supporters if population growth, immigration and the influence of Islam continues. And Environmental considerations are only going to become more prominent. Then there is the unknown crises( International relations/ warfare/ viruses)
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 8, 2024 10:31:29 GMT
I don't really care if I'm honest.
But if they were to ask my advice I would suggest Tom Tugendhat for them to try and become electable again.......
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Post by fullmetaljacket on Jul 8, 2024 10:43:58 GMT
Liz Truss is thinking there's a chance...given her take on reality
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 8, 2024 11:39:03 GMT
I think if the Tories move closer to Reform, a lot of the centre-right members will join the Labour Party and that will further kill off their party. The have got to reclaim the centre if they are to have any future. If they do go towards the Centre that might extend the life span of Reform UK in the short term but Reform UK will die off pretty soon, because they have no realistic chance of getting anywhere near Government and can only ever be a protest vote. Farage will get bored after a while when this penny drops. If immigration isn't sorted and radical Islam is allowed to continue growing then Reform isn't going anywhere. Add in a couple of terrorist attacks and they will only get stronger. The only party that can end Reform now is Labour by addressing these issues imo. The Tories have proven that they can't. Agreed. There's a massive opportunity for Labour to undermine loads of Reform/Tory hard-right votes by reducing immigration. Speed up processing of 'illegal' arrivals and deport them more quickly and reduce the 1.5m net migration figure and they're onto a winner. Away from the rather rabid and febrile front pages of the Express and Daily Hate, most people actually accept some immigration being necessary. They're not daft, they go to hospitals! So something approaching a reasonable figure (whatever that might be) which is still a reduction overall is going to play well generally. Not with the hardcore Reform/Tommy Robinson nutters obviously but with ordinary right-wingers and the general public as a whole. They get that the UK is an aging population and that there are big holes in certain industries and service sectors. Big opportunity for Labour imo. Take immigration away from Reform and, in all honesty, what's left? Not much.
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Post by oggyoggy on Jul 8, 2024 11:45:57 GMT
I think if the Tories move closer to Reform, a lot of the centre-right members will join the Labour Party and that will further kill off their party. The have got to reclaim the centre if they are to have any future. If they do go towards the Centre that might extend the life span of Reform UK in the short term but Reform UK will die off pretty soon, because they have no realistic chance of getting anywhere near Government and can only ever be a protest vote. Farage will get bored after a while when this penny drops. If immigration isn't sorted and radical Islam is allowed to continue growing then Reform isn't going anywhere. Add in a couple of terrorist attacks and they will only get stronger. The only party that can end Reform now is Labour by addressing these issues imo. The Tories have proven that they can't. I guess it depends if immigrants really are causing the cost of living crisis and the fact so many are struggling as Reform’s ideology is based upon. If not, and labour improve public services and make people’s lives better regardless of numbers of immigrants, those people will stop worrying so much about immigration. Immigration wasn’t really that big an issue until the right wing made it an issue to try and achieve Brexit.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 8, 2024 11:50:34 GMT
If immigration isn't sorted and radical Islam is allowed to continue growing then Reform isn't going anywhere. Add in a couple of terrorist attacks and they will only get stronger. The only party that can end Reform now is Labour by addressing these issues imo. The Tories have proven that they can't. I guess it depends if immigrants really are causing the cost of living crisis and the fact so many are struggling as Reform’s ideology is based upon. If not, and labour improve public services and make people’s lives better regardless of numbers of immigrants, those people will stop worrying so much about immigration. Immigration wasn’t really that big an issue until the right wing made it an issue to try and achieve Brexit. Yes. It's funny how little of an issue it was from election 2019 until 2022 as well. You hardly ever heard it talked about nor was it on the front page of the Express or Hate every other day. Right up to the point that the Tories were behind in the polls.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Jul 8, 2024 16:14:17 GMT
I guess it depends if immigrants really are causing the cost of living crisis and the fact so many are struggling as Reform’s ideology is based upon. If not, and labour improve public services and make people’s lives better regardless of numbers of immigrants, those people will stop worrying so much about immigration. Immigration wasn’t really that big an issue until the right wing made it an issue to try and achieve Brexit. Yes. It's funny how little of an issue it was from election 2019 until 2022 as well. You hardly ever heard it talked about nor was it on the front page of the Express or Hate every other day. Right up to the point that the Tories were behind in the polls. Immigration has just replaced the EU as the root of all evil. Brexit failed to solve the big problems so some people need a new simple solution to solve thise complex and deep rooted issues. Even if immigration is brought down the problems won't go away and the same people will just latch onto the next thing touted as the big problem.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 8, 2024 16:15:36 GMT
If immigration isn't sorted and radical Islam is allowed to continue growing then Reform isn't going anywhere. Add in a couple of terrorist attacks and they will only get stronger. The only party that can end Reform now is Labour by addressing these issues imo. The Tories have proven that they can't. I guess it depends if immigrants really are causing the cost of living crisis and the fact so many are struggling as Reform’s ideology is based upon. If not, and labour improve public services and make people’s lives better regardless of numbers of immigrants, those people will stop worrying so much about immigration. Immigration wasn’t really that big an issue until the right wing made it an issue to try and achieve Brexit. Do you walk around with your eyes closed?
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Post by oggyoggy on Jul 8, 2024 16:23:09 GMT
I guess it depends if immigrants really are causing the cost of living crisis and the fact so many are struggling as Reform’s ideology is based upon. If not, and labour improve public services and make people’s lives better regardless of numbers of immigrants, those people will stop worrying so much about immigration. Immigration wasn’t really that big an issue until the right wing made it an issue to try and achieve Brexit. Do you walk around with your eyes closed? I tend not to, no. Too many roads near where I live.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 8, 2024 16:25:07 GMT
Do you walk around with your eyes closed? I tend not to, no. Too many roads near where I live. Is it Croydon or London? I can’t remember 😉
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 8, 2024 16:59:48 GMT
I don't really care if I'm honest. But if they were to ask my advice I would suggest Tom Tugendhat for them to try and become electable again....... He’d probably be one of the better candidates
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Post by lordb on Jul 8, 2024 18:12:26 GMT
I don't really care if I'm honest. But if they were to ask my advice I would suggest Tom Tugendhat for them to try and become electable again....... He’d probably be one of the better candidates Is he still an MP?
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