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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Jun 26, 2022 10:23:59 GMT
Those stats are very damning, but I wonder if or what else is at play here? How does those stats stack up against Bonham, who was placed in a similar situation last season? They tell you that no matter which one we played none our keepers were in the top 18 in the league. That's just not acceptable.
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Post by willieeetmiout on Jun 26, 2022 10:25:18 GMT
Those stats are very damning, but I wonder if or what else is at play here? How does those stats stack up against Bonham, who was placed in a similar situation last season? They tell you that no matter which one we played none our keepers were in the top 18 in the league. That's just not acceptable. We were wank at the back too so that's never going to help
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Jun 26, 2022 10:27:12 GMT
I'm sorry to piss on your respective bonfires but he saved more shots last season than Bonham and the possible new signing Clark. He % ratio was 7% worse than Bonham's but 5% better than Clarks. His pass accuracy pisses on them both with it being 17% better than Bonham's and 30% better than Clarks. Add in he is young and will improve markedly compared to the others and it shows what a load of tripe you are talking. Doesn't it shows we might be signing another keeper to add to our stable of not good enough keepers.
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Post by willieeetmiout on Jun 26, 2022 10:28:47 GMT
I'm sorry to piss on your respective bonfires but he saved more shots last season than Bonham and the possible new signing Clark. He % ratio was 7% worse than Bonham's but 5% better than Clarks. His pass accuracy pisses on them both with it being 17% better than Bonham's and 30% better than Clarks. Add in he is young and will improve markedly compared to the others and it shows what a load of tripe you are talking. Doesn't it shows we might be signing another keeper to add to our stable of not good enough keepers. I feel sorry for any keeper that plays for us as we are so awful at defending
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Jun 26, 2022 10:29:55 GMT
They tell you that no matter which one we played none our keepers were in the top 18 in the league. That's just not acceptable. We were wank at the back too so that's never going to help If we were wank at the back we'd have conceded an above average ammount of goals espescially as the stats show non of our keepers were anywhere near the top 6/10. We didn't so you can't be right or did we get lucky over 46 games?
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Post by nonameface on Jun 26, 2022 10:31:02 GMT
If we can get a fee we should look to sell.
Tachyons data, not just the most recent post shows he's really not all that and is unlikely to be at a later point.
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Post by willieeetmiout on Jun 26, 2022 10:33:23 GMT
We were wank at the back too so that's never going to help If we were wank at the back we'd have conceded an above average ammount of goals espescially as the stats show non of our keepers were anywhere near the top 6/10. We didn't so you can't be right or did we get lucky over 46 games? MoN noticed how bad we were and so to stop the rot he decided to play with no attacking intent at all. I'm sure there was a run in Jan or Feb where we mustered 2 shots on target in 4 games. That's why the football was awful. We'd inevitably concede and then watch us aimlessly Huff and puff for the remainder of the game
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Post by MilanStokie on Jun 26, 2022 10:35:13 GMT
I still think it's very unfair criticism on bursik. I get we all want success and a promotion ready keeper, but I don't think bursiks form is down to him just not being good enough. For me the blame lies with MON. He has not handled the keeper situation well at all in the last 2 years. Dropping Davies or bursik every other week for a mistake, I'm sure did wonders for their confidence. Bonham was making mistakes and inexplicably decided to keep him playing. I'm not sure we can salvage the situation anymore so probably best to sell now, but it's a shame. I still think bursik will have a very decent career. Blaming MON for Bursik not stepping up to the mark is ridiculous. And blaming him for dropping him when he was costing us points is even worse. If MoN deserves any blame it's for having too much confidence in Bursik being good enough and not getting a better keeper in to replace him if he wasn't up to the task. Hopefully we'll get someone in and not compound the problem. You can either support the manager in giving young players a chance when they are not proven and accept the consequences when it doesn't come off or you can blame the manager for playing youngsters too soon and having a negative impact the on results. You can't have it both ways. Sorry I disagree. It's poor man-management to drop a player after a mistake. It's no coincidence that our keepers have all been poor for 2-3 years now. You can blame bursik completely if you like. I won't disagree that he has had a few poor games, but so did Gunn, butland, Davies and Bonham. It's not a coincidence for me and if you think the manager has handled the goalkeeper situation well then that's your opinion. It's nothing to do with giving young players a chance. A manager can be praised for one action and criticised for another you know.
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Post by thewonderstuff on Jun 26, 2022 10:37:12 GMT
What are his stats for England would be my question or do we have utter incompetents at that level both on and off the pitch? Given the U21s were managed for years by Aidy Boothroyd, I'd be careful where you take that level of questioning...! I don't know if Lee Carsley is any good to be honest even less so Tim Dittmer. Something doesn't add up though.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2022 10:37:14 GMT
I'm sorry to piss on your respective bonfires but he saved more shots last season than Bonham and the possible new signing Clark. He % ratio was 7% worse than Bonham's but 5% better than Clarks. His pass accuracy pisses on them both with it being 17% better than Bonham's and 30% better than Clarks. Add in he is young and will improve markedly compared to the others and it shows what a load of tripe you are talking. Doesn't it shows we might be signing another keeper to add to our stable of not good enough keepers. Tachyon posted stats on Clarke to show he was well above average as a shot stopper, so god knows. They are on the Clarke thread somewhere. I tend to believe his stats because he does this for a living. What is the saying, 'there's lies, damn lies and statistics'.
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Jun 26, 2022 10:37:26 GMT
If we were wank at the back we'd have conceded an above average ammount of goals espescially as the stats show non of our keepers were anywhere near the top 6/10. We didn't so you can't be right or did we get lucky over 46 games? MoN noticed how bad we were and so to stop the rot he decided to play with no attacking intent at all. I'm sure there was a run in Jan or Feb where we mustered 2 shots on target in 4 games. That's why the football was awful. We'd inevitably concede and then watch us aimlessly Huff and puff for the remainder of the game The data Tachyon has posted previously shows we were very good at preventing scoring opportunities. There was never a rot to stop we never conceded an undue or concerning ammount of goals. The manager is just over cautious by nature.
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Post by gawa on Jun 26, 2022 10:38:32 GMT
Bursik Shot PlacementShot placement for all attempts on target faced by JB in Championship. Blue circles are goals, orange saves. Bigger the circle, the more difficult the "save". Replace JB with a Championship average keeper, simulate every attempt 10,000 times and you only concede more goals than JB did once every 100 simulations. Sub optimal for all concerned. (site's image upload is playing up). What’s the source for this?
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Post by gawa on Jun 26, 2022 10:39:42 GMT
They tell you that no matter which one we played none our keepers were in the top 18 in the league. That's just not acceptable. We were wank at the back too so that's never going to help Bursik was facing one of the lowest average amounts of shots on target in the league per game. If the defence are stopping the opposition from getting shots on target then they’re not that bad.
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Post by independent on Jun 26, 2022 10:43:33 GMT
"Sorry I disagree. It's poor man-management to drop a player after a mistake." That is why Karius should not have been dropped by Klopp and why Jim Leighton should not have been dropped by Ferguson.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 26, 2022 10:45:25 GMT
He was playing fine. He let the odd one he shouldn’t do but then the way he was dropped, put in and then dropped was just appalling. Same for the other keepers too. But the other keepers wouldn’t have been worth 5m after a seasons worth of games. Bursik may have been. Again we have messed up a chance to add value to a player and get the most money we could for an asset. His shot stopping percentage is markedly below average for the regular starters in the league. Your solution to leaking goal after goal is to keep playing him in the hopes that he stops being crap at his job? I don’t think we’ve leaked goal after goal. My solution would have been to give a good young player a platform to build on and then sell him because he has a massive reputation for more than we will get for him.
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Post by tachyon on Jun 26, 2022 10:48:43 GMT
Bursik Shot PlacementShot placement for all attempts on target faced by JB in Championship. Blue circles are goals, orange saves. Bigger the circle, the more difficult the "save". Replace JB with a Championship average keeper, simulate every attempt 10,000 times and you only concede more goals than JB did once every 100 simulations. Sub optimal for all concerned. (site's image upload is playing up). Bournemouth must have analysts like you. Why would they be interested in JB? Is he likely to improve significantly? Love your work You can build a shot stopping model with the right data in about ten minutes, so I'd assume AFCB have that. That identifies if you have a problem. With more extensive, granular data you can start to see where a keeper stands out from the rest (both in a good or a bad way). This can include action choices faced with one on ones or general positioning. Next you look at what might be considered "best practices" and try to get your keeper to perhaps follow those more closely than they might be. I won't labour where I think JB is struggling (I posted it last season), but I'd assume teams do see something to work on. Keeper analysis looks like it should be easy, but it's the most difficult position to quantify properly. There's probably a couple of data guys who major on goalies (one is the head of recruitment for a Championship team).
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2022 10:49:59 GMT
Tachyon's post on Clarke:
Good shot-stopper.
Third best in the SPL last season, allowed ~11% fewer goals than you'd expect for an average SPL keeper based on the quality of the attempts faced.
SJ were around 4 goals better off in the matches he played compared to having an average keeper.
An average keeper has an equal or poorer performance than ZC's 2021/22 effort 85% of the time.
He was solidly above average last season.
Dundee U 0 SJ 1 in October 2021 was his best game (an average keeper allows 2-3 goals in that game).
SPL highlights are on YT.
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Post by MilanStokie on Jun 26, 2022 10:52:38 GMT
"Sorry I disagree. It's poor man-management to drop a player after a mistake." That is why Karius should not have been dropped by Klopp and why Jim Leighton should not have been dropped by Ferguson. He hasn't had an absolute clanger like butland did, has he? So everytime a keeper makes a mistake you reckon we should drop them just because klopp dropped karius. Might run out of keepers in the world eventually mind.
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Post by nottsover60 on Jun 26, 2022 10:56:52 GMT
He’s played a lot of games, over 20 each of the last two seasons and he was injured for an extended period last season too. I agree though that the goalkeeping department has been very poorly managed. And now we have Davies off the books who was earning a handsome sum, I believe, I really hope we invest in this area. I’d much rather money spent on a goalkeeper that makes a difference than take a risk with Bursik. The last two seasons haven’t worked with Bursik. Insanity is doing the same thing multiple times expecting different results. There was a massive reward with the risk of Bursik. The manager completely fucked that one up. All the blame on the manager not the player? Somebody said the other day you don't protect young players you treat them like any other and this should happen at 19 not 22. If they take on the challenge it shows they will be good enough. If they buckle they probably haven't got the mental strength to make it to the top. You can't keep waiting. After making the first of many mistakes Bursik should have been determined to make sure it didn't happen again. He didn't, just like Butland he continued to make the same mistakes, mistakes which were costing the team points. Butland too was an u21 International and had full caps but in the end didn't have the mental strength when things started to go wrong for him. The club are much better finding this out at 20 than at 23/4.
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Post by tachyon on Jun 26, 2022 11:03:06 GMT
Bursik Shot PlacementShot placement for all attempts on target faced by JB in Championship. Blue circles are goals, orange saves. Bigger the circle, the more difficult the "save". Replace JB with a Championship average keeper, simulate every attempt 10,000 times and you only concede more goals than JB did once every 100 simulations. Sub optimal for all concerned. (site's image upload is playing up). What’s the source for this? I do the data modelling for Infogol & Sporting Life.
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Post by nottsover60 on Jun 26, 2022 11:05:15 GMT
Bursik Shot PlacementShot placement for all attempts on target faced by JB in Championship. Blue circles are goals, orange saves. Bigger the circle, the more difficult the "save". Replace JB with a Championship average keeper, simulate every attempt 10,000 times and you only concede more goals than JB did once every 100 simulations. Sub optimal for all concerned. (site's image upload is playing up). My interpretation of that is that it seems he doesn't make many mistakes with easy 'my grandmother could have saved that' shots but doesn't pull out many difficult saves so if your defence can cut out the easy chances Bursik is of no use on the shots which are more difficult to save. My guess is that's where you need your goal keeper to perform to win you points. EDIT: 99 average goalkeepers would do better than him saving the shots he faced is a pretty awful statistic . That's our no. 1 gk? I'm surprised he got as many games as he did and if we can get a 7 figure fee for him we ought to jump at it
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Post by gawa on Jun 26, 2022 11:16:15 GMT
What’s the source for this? I do the data modelling for Infogol & Sporting Life. Hard to argue against that lol! Why are there some big orange circles in the centre of the goal though? How does xGA work for goalkeepers starting position? Is the likelihood of saving the goal based on where the shot is placed on goal, or is it based on the likelihood of the goalkeeper saving it from their starting position?
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Post by willieeetmiout on Jun 26, 2022 11:16:46 GMT
MoN noticed how bad we were and so to stop the rot he decided to play with no attacking intent at all. I'm sure there was a run in Jan or Feb where we mustered 2 shots on target in 4 games. That's why the football was awful. We'd inevitably concede and then watch us aimlessly Huff and puff for the remainder of the game The data Tachyon has posted previously shows we were very good at preventing scoring opportunities. There was never a rot to stop we never conceded an undue or concerning ammount of goals. The manager is just over cautious by nature. We conceded 3 in 7 minutes against Cardiff. It doesn't get more concerning than that. And should have conceded 5 minimum against Cov last game.
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Post by theonlooker on Jun 26, 2022 11:18:47 GMT
Given the U21s were managed for years by Aidy Boothroyd, I'd be careful where you take that level of questioning...! I don't know if Lee Carsley is any good to be honest even less so Tim Dittmer. Something doesn't add up though. Looking at the recent history of choices at U21 level, I wouldn't be using it as a yardstick any time soon. www.transfermarkt.co.uk/england-u21/torhueterchronik/verein/9565
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Post by devondumpling on Jun 26, 2022 11:21:00 GMT
Presumably using the same or similar data tachyon is using. In terms of the 40 keepers that played over 30% of minutes for their team in last season's Championship, Opta's XG prevented metric ranks: Davies was 19/40 Bonham was 24/40 Bursik was 38/40 I think he really looks the part with the ball at his feet (and the data over any specific single season will be small and noisy) but that isn't great. So preumably Luton have 4 goalkeepers all better than our best??
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Post by thewonderstuff on Jun 26, 2022 11:21:49 GMT
I can't believe they don't use analysis in the same way league clubs do. Something still not adding up, unless of course his England stats are markedly different from his Stoke stats?
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Post by theonlooker on Jun 26, 2022 11:23:50 GMT
I can't believe they don't use analysis in the same way league clubs do. Something still not adding up, unless of course his England stats are markedly different from his Stoke stats? I'd question if his stats are being masked or enhanced by the way England play and the sides they face, as opposed to the hurly burly of the Championship? I'm not sure, I'd have to see them. tachyon
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Post by s7oke on Jun 26, 2022 12:16:21 GMT
They tell you that no matter which one we played none our keepers were in the top 18 in the league. That's just not acceptable. We were wank at the back too so that's never going to help Like I said before if your defence is wank your keeper is all over the shop to try and compensate I think Bursik needs a run in the team with a decent defence in front of him and he will prove his doubters wrong He’s a good keeper
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Post by s7oke on Jun 26, 2022 12:18:06 GMT
We were wank at the back too so that's never going to help If we were wank at the back we'd have conceded an above average ammount of goals espescially as the stats show non of our keepers were anywhere near the top 6/10. We didn't so you can't be right or did we get lucky over 46 games? No but we played dross football that was hardly expansive in the opposition half so maybe that had something to do with it
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jun 26, 2022 12:27:37 GMT
Bursik is great in one v one situations, spreads himself really well and makes himself big. I can’t say I recall any real howlers but other than the aforementioned I don’t remembering him actually saving many shots either.
I’m happy for him to be number one next season as I’d love him to come good, but if we do need to offload someone from a FFP perspective I think I’d rather Bursik than Souttar, Powell, Campbell or Brown…..
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