|
|
Post by owdestokie2 on Jun 26, 2022 12:32:23 GMT
Whether JB is currently at Championship level (remembering his age) is a debate that no doubt professional stakeholders have been/are currently having. There’s a wealth of historical examples that Goalkeepers “generally” tend to start to peak in their mid/late 20’s.
Without researching I wonder at what age the likes of Tommy, Asmir etc. actually commanded 1st team inclusion in leagues as tough as the Championship?
|
|
|
|
Post by nottsover60 on Jun 26, 2022 14:03:27 GMT
Begovic played 11 games for Portsmouth in the Premier League at a similar age. His performances were good enough for Stoke to pay about £3/4 million for him to join as understudy to Sorenson amidst alleged interest from Chelsea.
|
|
|
|
Post by cvillestokie on Jun 26, 2022 14:40:35 GMT
Whether JB is currently at Championship level (remembering his age) is a debate that no doubt professional stakeholders have been/are currently having. There’s a wealth of historical examples that Goalkeepers “generally” tend to start to peak in their mid/late 20’s. Without researching I wonder at what age the likes of Tommy, Asmir etc. actually commanded 1st team inclusion in leagues as tough as the Championship? Sorenson joined Sunderland in the First Division (Championship) at about 21/22. He played almost every game and they were then promoted to the Premier League. Barring one and a bit seasons, he basically played every game from that point on for his respective clubs until Begovic took over from him for us. |
|
|
|
Post by potterburt on Jun 26, 2022 16:36:37 GMT
Whether JB is currently at Championship level (remembering his age) is a debate that no doubt professional stakeholders have been/are currently having. There’s a wealth of historical examples that Goalkeepers “generally” tend to start to peak in their mid/late 20’s. Without researching I wonder at what age the likes of Tommy, Asmir etc. actually commanded 1st team inclusion in leagues as tough as the Championship? I think it wouldn’t be outlandish to say that Keepers actually ‘generally’ peak around the 30yr mark, many keeps sign for big money around this age with 4-5 yr contracts and then move on at 35yr for one or two last paycheques as backups or at lower level teams. I reckon a lot of keeps aren’t really seen as only at the start of their first choice careers around the age of 25-28 (of course there’s plenty of exceptions to this notion, I know) |
|
|
|
Post by kingsman on Jun 26, 2022 17:51:20 GMT
Interesting people mention bego and sorro ...they walked out with shawcross , huth ? And were bigger than them . They were huge
If bursik were to walk out with flint and Souttar , he would look a short arse
Granted , Banks was not huge but good , but that was 50 , 60 years ago !
For a modern keeper, bursik don't look as big as some of the outfield players to me
I know this is a very basic , very late in the day observation, but bursik don't look big enough to a modern day keeper to me !
I would have more faith in the lad coming good if he was 6 foot 5 or 6 foot 6
But he looks a fairly average height for a young man these days
|
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Jun 26, 2022 18:44:46 GMT
I do the data modelling for Infogol & Sporting Life. Hard to argue against that lol! Why are there some big orange circles in the centre of the goal though? How does xGA work for goalkeepers starting position? Is the likelihood of saving the goal based on where the shot is placed on goal, or is it based on the likelihood of the goalkeeper saving it from their starting position? Post shot xG (on target), depends on where the shot/header originates from (location) and where it is destined to cross the plane of the goal (placement). Both contribute to the size of the circle. You'd run a model without inputting keeper position, then one that includes it to see how the xG values change. That gives you an idea of how well the keeper is positioned compared to an average keeper. (there's also predictive vs descriptive issues for the different models). Other layers to add is position of defenders (lines of sight) & save technique (1 on 1, when & how far to advance, top arm vs bottom arm etc). Then video. Quickly gets into consultant territory :-) |
|
|
|
Post by gawa on Jun 26, 2022 19:07:50 GMT
Hard to argue against that lol! Why are there some big orange circles in the centre of the goal though? How does xGA work for goalkeepers starting position? Is the likelihood of saving the goal based on where the shot is placed on goal, or is it based on the likelihood of the goalkeeper saving it from their starting position? Post shot xG (on target), depends on where the shot/header originates from (location) and where it is destined to cross the plane of the goal (placement). Both contribute to the size of the circle. You'd run a model without inputting keeper position, then one that includes it to see how the xG values change. That gives you an idea of how well the keeper is positioned compared to an average keeper. (there's also predictive vs descriptive issues for the different models). Other layers to add is position of defenders (lines of sight) & save technique (1 on 1, when & how far to advance, top arm vs bottom arm etc). Then video. Quickly gets into consultant territory :-) So is the model which you provided also based on taking Bursiks position into account and what not? As in his positioning wasn’t even to blame for not saving the shots? That’s interesting then, because then what’s the cause of us conceding so many goals? Especially as, at least in the games Bursik played, only faced around 3 shots on target a game. Bad luck? Bad defending? But then if bad defending, to limit the oppositions on shot targets suggests we’re doing something right. What’s your opinion on Bursik at the goalkeeping department at present? |
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 26, 2022 22:16:38 GMT
There was a massive reward with the risk of Bursik. The manager completely fucked that one up. All the blame on the manager not the player? Somebody said the other day you don't protect young players you treat them like any other and this should happen at 19 not 22. If they take on the challenge it shows they will be good enough. If they buckle they probably haven't got the mental strength to make it to the top. You can't keep waiting. After making the first of many mistakes Bursik should have been determined to make sure it didn't happen again. He didn't, just like Butland he continued to make the same mistakes, mistakes which were costing the team points. Butland too was an u21 International and had full caps but in the end didn't have the mental strength when things started to go wrong for him. The club are much better finding this out at 20 than at 23/4. He wasn’t just like Butland that’s just fucking bollocks. |
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Jun 27, 2022 8:03:47 GMT
What’s your opinion on Bursik at the goalkeeping department at present? I'll just say that JB is a Championship outlier for his pre-shot positioning. |
|
|
|
Post by nottsover60 on Jun 27, 2022 8:22:56 GMT
All the blame on the manager not the player? Somebody said the other day you don't protect young players you treat them like any other and this should happen at 19 not 22. If they take on the challenge it shows they will be good enough. If they buckle they probably haven't got the mental strength to make it to the top. You can't keep waiting. After making the first of many mistakes Bursik should have been determined to make sure it didn't happen again. He didn't, just like Butland he continued to make the same mistakes, mistakes which were costing the team points. Butland too was an u21 International and had full caps but in the end didn't have the mental strength when things started to go wrong for him. The club are much better finding this out at 20 than at 23/4. He wasn’t just like Butland that’s just fucking bollocks. So how many mistakes do we let him make before dropping him. You think letting him keep making mistakes is better for his confidence than being dropped? I compared him somewhere yesterday to Shawcross who was publicly dropped and blamed by Pulis at the same age but fought his way back. If you've got the character and determination to succeed being dropped makes you more determined. Bursik is not young anymore. If he can't take criticism and learn from it he won't make it. Begovic played for Portsmouth at Bursik's age in the Premier, came to Stoke and played understudy for two years but when he got the chance made the position his with some sterling performances. |
|
|
|
Post by kingsman on Jun 27, 2022 10:33:21 GMT
Bursik saved 58 per cent of shots against him in the championship last season
Bonham 68 per cent behind the same defence , in the same league
Rodak ( Fulham) 75 per cent
Travers ( Bournemouth) 78 per cent
So what we want is a keeper who saves high seventies per cent of saves, such as rodak or Travers
And if we can't get someone like that , then Bonham is playing.
Why on earth, would we want a keeper who lets in roughly half the shots against him?
To leave the championship upwards into the prem , we need a keeper who saves 75 per cent plus of shots
The only way, we are leaving the championship, with a goalie , who saves 58 per cent of shots, is downwards into league 1
|
|
|
|
Post by FullerMagic on Jun 28, 2022 10:18:06 GMT
re the speculated Watford-Bursik interest, no mention here, but they have released a keeper today, and there's continued speculation about Bachmann They did spend £5m on a young 22yo in January though, who's expected to be their No.1 this season - so would Bursik be interested in a No.2 role behind a young, expensive keeper? Sitting on a Championship bench is the last thing a young keeper needs But there must be an outgoing on the cards if the Zander Clark interest is real theathletic.com/live-blogs/transfer-news-premier-league-latest/CE5NBxa2xJav/Watford agree to release Rob ElliotWatford have mutually agreed to terminate the contract of goalkeeper Rob Elliot following the club's relegation to the Championship, The Athletic understands. The 36-year-old had one year remaining on his deal but it's been amicably agreed between club and player to allow him to seek other opportunities. It means Watford are now in the market for another goalkeeper. As explained here new signing Maduka Okoye is expected to be No 1 which leaves Daniel Bachmann's future uncertain. Therefore Watford may be in the market for either a keeper to challenge Okoye if Bachmann leaves or an experienced No 3 as support. Pontus Dahlberg, who is also at the club, is expected to sign another loan deal for next season. |
|
|
|
Post by liathroid on Jul 6, 2022 18:29:37 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by liathroid on Jul 6, 2022 22:30:39 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by pushon on Jul 6, 2022 22:47:22 GMT
Interesting people mention bego and sorro ...they walked out with shawcross , huth ? And were bigger than them . They were huge If bursik were to walk out with flint and Souttar , he would look a short arse Granted , Banks was not huge but good , but that was 50 , 60 years ago ! For a modern keeper, bursik don't look as big as some of the outfield players to me I know this is a very basic , very late in the day observation, but bursik don't look big enough to a modern day keeper to me ! I would have more faith in the lad coming good if he was 6 foot 5 or 6 foot 6 But he looks a fairly average height for a young man these days Fair enough mate, I agree with your thinking, but I'm compelled to comment on your Banks impressions, Gordon was so much better than merely good. He was voted, I believe, best goalkeeper in Europe for 5 or 6 seasons consecutively. |
|
|
|
Post by liathroid on Jul 7, 2022 21:19:11 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by davejohnno1 on Jul 7, 2022 22:35:09 GMT
The worrying thing with Bursik is he doesn’t seem to make amazing saves in training or even pre match warm ups.
There is footage of a goal Campbell scored in training today knocking around. What was Bursik doing?
I’m struggling to be convinced by him despite his “reputation” and having given him the benefit of any doubts up to this point.
Shot stopping seems to be the weakest part of his game which is more than a bit weird to observe. Hopefully it’s a confidence thing and it all clicks into place for him soon.
|
|
|
|
Post by tejstokie on Jul 8, 2022 0:25:56 GMT
I've never been convinced in Bursik myself, I don't see the hype. Not saying he can't become a Banks like player for us. But in all honesty going from Bego, Sorensen, Grant, and Butland between the sticks to the current crop of GKs we've got, we're moving in the wrong direction. It hurt us bad last season. It's still going to be a thorn in our side this season.
|
|
|
|
Post by marylandstoke on Jul 8, 2022 0:35:28 GMT
What’s your opinion on Bursik at the goalkeeping department at present? I'll just say that JB is a Championship outlier for his pre-shot positioning. Made me laugh out loud. |
|
|
|
Post by essexstokey on Jul 8, 2022 2:55:37 GMT
Just heard the Tories don't think bj is a keeper also 😁🤣😁🤣😁
Sorry couldn't resist that joke
|
|
|
|
Post by northernstokie on Jul 8, 2022 3:10:43 GMT
The worrying thing with Bursik is he doesn’t seem to make amazing saves in training or even pre match warm ups. There is footage of a goal Campbell scored in training today knocking around. What was Bursik doing? I’m struggling to be convinced by him despite his “reputation” and having given him the benefit of any doubts up to this point. Shot stopping seems to be the weakest part of his game which is more than a bit weird to observe. Hopefully it’s a confidence thing and it all clicks into place for him soon. Where did you see the footage mate? |
|
|
|
Post by Gary Hackett on Jul 8, 2022 7:13:35 GMT
I've never been convinced in Bursik myself, I don't see the hype. Not saying he can't become a Banks like player for us. But in all honesty going from Bego, Sorensen, Grant, and Butland between the sticks to the current crop of GKs we've got, we're moving in the wrong direction. It hurt us bad last season. It's still going to be a thorn in our side this season. Unfortunately the management disagree and don't think the goalkeeping situation is an issue. |
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Jul 8, 2022 9:23:37 GMT
Baseline figures for defense/GK for Championship teams with promotion aspirations.
Last decade, automatic promo teams allowed, on average 0.9 xG per 90. Playoff teams allowed 1.12 xG per 90. (That's mostly down to outfield defensive ability).
Last decade, automatic promo GK's shot stopping has been on average 11% better than league average based on the quality of shots faced. (88% of such keepers have performed above average).
Last decade, playoff team GK's shot stopping has been on average 4% better than league average. (64% of such keepers have performed above average).
Only 10% of playoff teams have managed it with a really poor shot stopper in goal (allowed >10% more goals than league average based on the quality of shots faced).
GK shot stopping is down to talent + luck.
Luck can push a keeper's performance into the above average shot stopping category, even if his talent is below league average, but it's preferable to have a talented shot stopper to start with.
|
|
|
|
Post by liathroid on Jul 8, 2022 20:09:11 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by cvillestokie on Jul 8, 2022 20:19:12 GMT
Baseline figures for defense/GK for Championship teams with promotion aspirations. Last decade, automatic promo teams allowed, on average 0.9 xG per 90. Playoff teams allowed 1.12 xG per 90. (That's mostly down to outfield defensive ability). Last decade, automatic promo GK's shot stopping has been on average 11% better than league average based on the quality of shots faced. (88% of such keepers have performed above average). Last decade, playoff team GK's shot stopping has been on average 4% better than league average. (64% of such keepers have performed above average). Only 10% of playoff teams have managed it with a really poor shot stopper in goal (allowed >10% more goals than league average based on the quality of shots faced). GK shot stopping is down to talent + luck. Luck can push a keeper's performance into the above average shot stopping category, even if his talent is below league average, but it's preferable to have a talented shot stopper to start with. How would you quantify “luck”. Would it just be a reasonable deviation from the trend over a short period? |
|
|
|
Post by lancashirelad on Jul 8, 2022 20:55:58 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by liathroid on Jul 8, 2022 20:56:38 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by davejohnno1 on Jul 8, 2022 22:01:37 GMT
The worrying thing with Bursik is he doesn’t seem to make amazing saves in training or even pre match warm ups. There is footage of a goal Campbell scored in training today knocking around. What was Bursik doing? I’m struggling to be convinced by him despite his “reputation” and having given him the benefit of any doubts up to this point. Shot stopping seems to be the weakest part of his game which is more than a bit weird to observe. Hopefully it’s a confidence thing and it all clicks into place for him soon. Where did you see the footage mate? Originally saw it on instagram but it subsequently appeared on stoke Facebook page |
|
|
|
Post by Gary Hackett on Jul 8, 2022 22:11:33 GMT
He seems a good lad, I hope he improves for his sake and ours this season so we don't have to worry about recruiting in that position. |
|
|
|
Post by dioufsboots on Jul 8, 2022 22:41:59 GMT
It's looking more and more likely bursik is going be number 1 this season which is a big worry,surley a keeper along with a striker should be priority now am struggling think of one tbh there's really not much out there keeper wise
|
|
