|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 9, 2022 15:55:50 GMT
Got to be a sabotage group. That’s way too well timed to be missiles especially that deep into Russian occupied territory. Twitter seems to think they have new unannounced toys. There's always a while circus on Twitter about every bit of news so I don't believe anything specific yet. But... We didn't know about the anti-radar missiles until they were used and the Ukrainians have been really good at sequencing their punches. Like their win at Snake Island. It seems like they recently disabled Russian air defence NW of Crimea so maybe they got something through. Could have been drones though?
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 9, 2022 16:02:09 GMT
Twitter seems to think they have new unannounced toys. There's always a while circus on Twitter about every bit of news so I don't believe anything specific yet. But... We didn't know about the anti-radar missiles until they were used and the Ukrainians have been really good at sequencing their punches. Like their win at Snake Island. It seems like they recently disabled Russian air defence NW of Crimea so maybe they got something through. Could have been drones though? Could have been drones but seems too big to be drones? Saboteurs maybe but this is the second attack at a distance longer than HIMARS in 12 hours. And actually the timing imo suggests a missile attack. You'd fire them at the sameish time and if they get through they hit simultaneously but that's open to interpretation isn't it.
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on Aug 9, 2022 19:13:04 GMT
What do you think the west would do if Russia were to deploy battlefield nukes? It's a genuine question, I don't know. I could imagine a UN resolution condemning it, more sanctions and a build up of troops in Poland. But would the west nuke them back? The good General reckons Russia don't believe they will. The reason I provided the link was in anticipation of that very question. It's far from being a short (or indeed simple, answer). But the West won't be turning a blind eye to it, you can take that to the bank, whatever the general is claiming.
|
|
|
Post by Gods on Aug 9, 2022 19:36:10 GMT
What do you think the west would do if Russia were to deploy battlefield nukes? It's a genuine question, I don't know. I could imagine a UN resolution condemning it, more sanctions and a build up of troops in Poland. But would the west nuke them back? The good General reckons Russia don't believe they will. The reason I provided the link was in anticipation of that very question. It's far from being a short (or indeed simple, answer). But the West won't be turning a blind eye to it, you can take that to the bank, whatever the general is claiming. I'm sorry Paul, I have not looked at the link, too busy with work.
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on Aug 9, 2022 19:43:02 GMT
The reason I provided the link was in anticipation of that very question. It's far from being a short (or indeed simple, answer). But the West won't be turning a blind eye to it, you can take that to the bank, whatever the general is claiming. I'm sorry Paul, I have not looked at the link, too busy with work. No worries mate, if you do get a moment, it provides a pretty comprehensive answer and then some.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 9, 2022 19:50:44 GMT
New clip shows a wrecked Su-24 jet on the ground. The sky looks like today's weather report for Simferopol so it could be that Ukraine whacked Russian planes. Tomorrow morning's satellite pics might show something. I'm trying not to get my hopes up but this could be big.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 9, 2022 21:51:48 GMT
Just sheer devastation from every video from that airfield
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 9, 2022 22:27:17 GMT
Zelenskyy's speech tonight went very heavy on how Crimea is and always will be Ukrainian.
No evidence of a peaceful solution soon but each new heavy weapon we get to Ukraine brings it a step closer.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 10, 2022 5:57:03 GMT
Zelenskyy's speech tonight went very heavy on how Crimea is and always will be Ukrainian. No evidence of a peaceful solution soon but each new heavy weapon we get to Ukraine brings it a step closer. We’re surely strikes away on the anchored Black Sea fleet away from Crimea being untenable for Russia surely? Although I read reports from about a week saying they’d scattered the fleet to sea and back to Russian ports?
|
|
|
Post by mrcoke on Aug 10, 2022 17:18:27 GMT
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 10, 2022 17:43:20 GMT
Not sure I understand fully but I think the surplus will drop in next report. Those data end in June when Urals oil was ~$90/barrel, versus $75 now. The article shows Russia selling an extra ~0.7 million/day to Asia, but Europe's buying is gonna drop by about 2 million/day by 2023. Lower prices + more costly transport + maybe lower total oil exports make me think Russia can't keep posting such big current account surpluses. The picture for Russian gas looks worse. That's why I called it a "sugar rush" for Russia and still think it'll die off by spring 2023.
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on Aug 10, 2022 18:13:38 GMT
Not sure I understand fully but I think the surplus will drop in next report. Those data end in June when Urals oil was ~$90/barrel, versus $75 now. The article shows Russia selling an extra ~0.7 million/day to Asia, but Europe's buying is gonna drop by about 2 million/day by 2023. Lower prices + more costly transport + maybe lower total oil exports make me think Russia can't keep posting such big current account surpluses. The picture for Russian gas looks worse. That's why I called it a "sugar rush" for Russia and still think it'll die off by spring 2023. We that’s your hypothesis but it’s not borne out by the facts thus far. Additionally if China step in and increase purchases then that’ll more than likely compensate for any drop off in Europe so it doesn’t look like the cash cow will disappear anytime soon.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 10, 2022 18:29:43 GMT
Not sure I understand fully but I think the surplus will drop in next report. Those data end in June when Urals oil was ~$90/barrel, versus $75 now. The article shows Russia selling an extra ~0.7 million/day to Asia, but Europe's buying is gonna drop by about 2 million/day by 2023. Lower prices + more costly transport + maybe lower total oil exports make me think Russia can't keep posting such big current account surpluses. The picture for Russian gas looks worse. That's why I called it a "sugar rush" for Russia and still think it'll die off by spring 2023. We that’s your hypothesis but it’s not borne out by the facts thus far. Additionally if China step in and increase purchases then that’ll more than likely compensate for any drop off in Europe so it doesn’t look like the cash cow will disappear anytime soon. Yeah we'll see, predicting the future is hard! I expect(ed) a "sugar rush" and the data so far line up. Loads of things could happen to prove me wrong of course. An epically cold winter or revolution in Saudi Arabia for example. EDIT: in last post I said "die off", I didn't mean Russian current account surplus would disappear. I meant it would get smaller. The most important thing is the Russian federal budget going hard into deficits and that's what I'll be watching too.
|
|
|
Post by questionable on Aug 10, 2022 19:40:08 GMT
We that’s your hypothesis but it’s not borne out by the facts thus far. Additionally if China step in and increase purchases then that’ll more than likely compensate for any drop off in Europe so it doesn’t look like the cash cow will disappear anytime soon. Yeah we'll see, predicting the future is hard! I expect(ed) a "sugar rush" and the data so far line up. Loads of things could happen to prove me wrong of course. An epically cold winter or revolution in Saudi Arabia for example. EDIT: in last post I said "die off", I didn't mean Russian current account surplus would disappear. I meant it would get smaller. The most important thing is the Russian federal budget going hard into deficits and that's what I'll be watching too. Don’t really understand the financial side of things but take immense pleasure in seeing Russian troops getting obliterated
|
|
|
Post by mrcoke on Aug 10, 2022 19:48:49 GMT
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 10, 2022 19:49:37 GMT
Yeah we'll see, predicting the future is hard! I expect(ed) a "sugar rush" and the data so far line up. Loads of things could happen to prove me wrong of course. An epically cold winter or revolution in Saudi Arabia for example. EDIT: in last post I said "die off", I didn't mean Russian current account surplus would disappear. I meant it would get smaller. The most important thing is the Russian federal budget going hard into deficits and that's what I'll be watching too. Don’t really understand the financial side of things but take immense pleasure in seeing Russian troops getting obliterated There are some real pieces of shit in the Russian army but also a lot of Ukrainian borderline slave soldiers being used as meat shields. My ideal would be seeing all the Russians tanks and planes and guns getting blown up without people in them. They'll lose without those and that's good enough for me. I'll make an exception for the 64th. The monsters of Bucha got absolutely fucked up in the east. Good riddance to bad filth.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 10, 2022 20:04:50 GMT
Good for politics in Poland I bet. Germany have made three big mistakes in recent decades IMO and this slowness wasn't because they were trying to help Putin but because they just weren't prepared. Looks like Germany is working on fixing 2/3 of the big mistakes I think they made now.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 10, 2022 20:17:02 GMT
Wow, it looks like the Ukrainians smashed 9+ attack aircraft yesterday!
The tweeter is very reliable and Su-30 are said to be about $40 mil each.
Also the Russian news from yesterday vwas funny. "Aviation equipment at the airfield was not damaged" my arse.
|
|
|
Post by swampmongrel on Aug 10, 2022 20:39:17 GMT
What do you think the west would do if Russia were to deploy battlefield nukes? It's a genuine question, I don't know. I could imagine a UN resolution condemning it, more sanctions and a build up of troops in Poland. But would the west nuke them back? The good General reckons Russia don't believe they will. The reason I provided the link was in anticipation of that very question. It's far from being a short (or indeed simple, answer). But the West won't be turning a blind eye to it, you can take that to the bank, whatever the general is claiming. I think the message is/will be ‘if you escalate to (tactical) nukes in Ukraine then we (NATO) will humiliate your forces in Ukraine (using conventional weapons). If you nuke a NATO country… you already know the consequences of that’. I’m not even sure Putin could launch (and land) a nuke in a NATO country even if he was minded to do so.
|
|
|
Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 10, 2022 20:44:42 GMT
The reason I provided the link was in anticipation of that very question. It's far from being a short (or indeed simple, answer). But the West won't be turning a blind eye to it, you can take that to the bank, whatever the general is claiming. I think the message is/will be ‘if you escalate to (tactical) nukes in Ukraine then we (NATO) will humiliate your forces in Ukraine (using conventional weapons). If you nuke a NATO country… you already know the consequences of that’. I’m not even sure Putin could launch (and land) a nuke in a NATO country even if he was minded to do so. What makes you think he wouldn't be able to?
|
|
|
Post by swampmongrel on Aug 10, 2022 20:56:35 GMT
I think the message is/will be ‘if you escalate to (tactical) nukes in Ukraine then we (NATO) will humiliate your forces in Ukraine (using conventional weapons). If you nuke a NATO country… you already know the consequences of that’. I’m not even sure Putin could launch (and land) a nuke in a NATO country even if he was minded to do so. What makes you think he wouldn't be able to? I’m not SURE but my doubts are mainly chain of command stuff. Would you press a button knowing that doing so would mean you and your family would be shortly vapourised? Also, are we sure that the Russian nuclear arsenal is fully functional from a technical perspective? Their military hasn’t proved to be super technically efficient over the past few months.
|
|
|
Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 10, 2022 21:00:28 GMT
What makes you think he wouldn't be able to? I’m not SURE but my doubts are mainly chain of command stuff. Would you press a button knowing that doing so would mean you and your family would be shortly vapourised? Also, are we sure that the Russian nuclear arsenal is fully functional from a technical perspective? Their military hasn’t proved to be super technically efficient over the past few months. I think if they were going to make sure any piece of their arsenal was up to scratch it would be their nukes surely. Personally no I wouldn't but it all depends on how fanatical these people are .
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on Aug 10, 2022 21:12:20 GMT
We that’s your hypothesis but it’s not borne out by the facts thus far. Additionally if China step in and increase purchases then that’ll more than likely compensate for any drop off in Europe so it doesn’t look like the cash cow will disappear anytime soon. Yeah we'll see, predicting the future is hard! I expect(ed) a "sugar rush" and the data so far line up. Loads of things could happen to prove me wrong of course. An epically cold winter or revolution in Saudi Arabia for example. EDIT: in last post I said "die off", I didn't mean Russian current account surplus would disappear. I meant it would get smaller. The most important thing is the Russian federal budget going hard into deficits and that's what I'll be watching too. Another point is that a current account surplus is pretty useless if you can’t spend/invest it. If the sanctions hold they shouldn’t have access to Western products/investments. Hopefully China doesn’t step into this void as well
|
|
|
Post by andystokey on Aug 10, 2022 21:20:24 GMT
What do you think the west would do if Russia were to deploy battlefield nukes? It's a genuine question, I don't know. I could imagine a UN resolution condemning it, more sanctions and a build up of troops in Poland. But would the west nuke them back? The good General reckons Russia don't believe they will. The reason I provided the link was in anticipation of that very question. It's far from being a short (or indeed simple, answer). But the West won't be turning a blind eye to it, you can take that to the bank, whatever the general is claiming. The last part with the Bill Perry interview is the most intriguing and frankly scary. There has been a programme on R4 on this escalation strategy just recently; Side Ways. The 3 minute intro is here www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0ck0491Check out these episodes 25 to 28 www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000s2kt/episodes/player
|
|
|
Post by partickpotter on Aug 11, 2022 7:32:28 GMT
Yeah we'll see, predicting the future is hard! I expect(ed) a "sugar rush" and the data so far line up. Loads of things could happen to prove me wrong of course. An epically cold winter or revolution in Saudi Arabia for example. EDIT: in last post I said "die off", I didn't mean Russian current account surplus would disappear. I meant it would get smaller. The most important thing is the Russian federal budget going hard into deficits and that's what I'll be watching too. Another point is that a current account surplus is pretty useless if you can’t spend/invest it. If the sanctions hold they shouldn’t have access to Western products/investments. Hopefully China doesn’t step into this void as well This is my main takeaway from that data. It’s evidence of the effectiveness of sanctions. As is their need to cannibalise aircraft for spare parts.
|
|
|
Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 11, 2022 15:22:42 GMT
It is tremendous.
|
|
|
Post by prestwichpotter on Aug 11, 2022 15:27:20 GMT
I'd still go there over Rhyl........
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 11, 2022 16:06:40 GMT
Yeah we'll see, predicting the future is hard! I expect(ed) a "sugar rush" and the data so far line up. Loads of things could happen to prove me wrong of course. An epically cold winter or revolution in Saudi Arabia for example. EDIT: in last post I said "die off", I didn't mean Russian current account surplus would disappear. I meant it would get smaller. The most important thing is the Russian federal budget going hard into deficits and that's what I'll be watching too. Another point is that a current account surplus is pretty useless if you can’t spend/invest it. If the sanctions hold they shouldn’t have access to Western products/investments. Hopefully China doesn’t step into this void as well I think they're still forcing companies to buy roubles with all those dollars/yen/euros *and* the Central Bank and Finance Ministry have said that the foreign reserve fund will shrink by the end of the year. If that's true that means they're burning money like crazy on basically just making the rouble look strong. They can't spend those dollars etc next year on new parts for factories or fighter jets.
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Aug 11, 2022 16:10:51 GMT
The "Donetsk People's Republic" which is basically the Russian governmenr of occupied Donetsk (only pro-Putin parties allowed) reports their casualties and says through last week: 2.5k dead, 10.8k wounded.
The same rate for the UK would be 400k dead or wounded soldiers.
Putin has been using the war to wipe out fighting-age Ukrainian men in the occupied territories but they can't keep this up forever.
|
|
|
Post by Gods on Aug 11, 2022 21:51:53 GMT
Western sanctions have had ‘limited impact’ on Russian oil output, says IEA Rerouting of Moscow’s crude to India, China and Turkey has helped offset curbs elsewhere FT Sanctions not working
|
|