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Post by Paul Spencer on Aug 11, 2022 23:00:51 GMT
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Post by Paul Spencer on Aug 11, 2022 23:14:09 GMT
What makes you think he wouldn't be able to? I’m not SURE but my doubts are mainly chain of command stuff. Would you press a button knowing that doing so would mean you and your family would be shortly vapourised? Also, are we sure that the Russian nuclear arsenal is fully functional from a technical perspective? Their military hasn’t proved to be super technically efficient over the past few months. And you'd be right. According to Pavel Podvig, the director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project and a former research fellow at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, now based in Geneva, the long-range ballistic missiles deployed on land and on submarines are Russia’s only nuclear weapons available for immediate use. If Putin decides to attack Ukraine with shorter-range, “tactical” nuclear weapons, they will have to be removed from an Object S site—such as Belgorod-22, just 25 miles from the Ukrainian border—and transported to military bases. It will take hours for the weapons to be made combat-ready, for warheads to be mated with cruise missiles or ballistic missiles, for hydrogen bombs to be loaded on planes.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 11, 2022 23:55:39 GMT
Western sanctions have had ‘limited impact’ on Russian oil output, says IEA Rerouting of Moscow’s crude to India, China and Turkey has helped offset curbs elsewhere FT Sanctions not workingHard disagree with "they're not working". Factories have a stockpile of kit and can keep going for a bit. Then they're in trouble. Russia got a sugar rush from the price spike but if we have a warm winter Russia's gonna be in obvious trouble if they release next springs data. That's why pro-Russians are desperate to say the sanctions aren't working. They want them lifted asap and they know that they can only pretend they're not working for a bit longer.
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Post by Gods on Aug 12, 2022 7:24:35 GMT
Western sanctions have had ‘limited impact’ on Russian oil output, says IEA Rerouting of Moscow’s crude to India, China and Turkey has helped offset curbs elsewhere FT Sanctions not workingHard disagree with "they're not working". Factories have a stockpile of kit and can keep going for a bit. Then they're in trouble. Russia got a sugar rush from the price spike but if we have a warm winter Russia's gonna be in obvious trouble if they release next springs data. That's why pro-Russians are desperate to say the sanctions aren't working. They want them lifted asap and they know that they can only pretend they're not working for a bit longer. I'm not sure it's only pro-Russians saying they are not working it's people like me who think we should try a whole lot harder and do more to disassociate ourselves with those who are not trying at all like China and India the 2 largest countries in the world.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 12, 2022 15:46:13 GMT
Hard disagree with "they're not working". Factories have a stockpile of kit and can keep going for a bit. Then they're in trouble. Russia got a sugar rush from the price spike but if we have a warm winter Russia's gonna be in obvious trouble if they release next springs data. That's why pro-Russians are desperate to say the sanctions aren't working. They want them lifted asap and they know that they can only pretend they're not working for a bit longer. I'm not sure it's only pro-Russians saying they are not working it's people like me who think we should try a whole lot harder and do more to disassociate ourselves with those who are not trying at all like China and India the 2 largest countries in the world. Sorry mate I didn't mean to imply that it's only pro-Russians (which would hint at you being pro-Russian), but that I've already seen it a lot from pro-Russians. China is not selling high tech to Russia yet that we've seen, which is important. I think we'll see over time that the sanctions are really hurting. Russia is putting on a strong face to try and persuade people that they aren't working so we may as well give them up. They're desperate.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 12, 2022 17:30:41 GMT
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Post by longdistancekiddie on Aug 12, 2022 21:49:27 GMT
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Post by questionable on Aug 15, 2022 19:45:16 GMT
A document believed to have been circulated around Western intelligence agencies and supposedly seen by The Mirror said: “A representative of Putin’s inner circle sent a signal about the desire to negotiate. “The mood of the Kremlin elite is panic.” Putin’s backstabbing official isn’t named in the document but has been described as a “pillar of the regime” in Russia. Ukraine believes high-ranking Kremlin officials are attempting to reach out to Western intelligence agencies behind Putin’s back, a Kyiv diplomatic source told The Mirror. “It is often the case as happened in the closing stages of the Second World War that officials on a side concerned about their future make approaches to ensure it,” they said. They added that many of the Russian elite have enjoyed the freedom of living in the West and are worried about losing it, but are too scared of what Putin might do to them to speak out.
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Post by lordb on Aug 15, 2022 21:13:06 GMT
A document believed to have been circulated around Western intelligence agencies and supposedly seen by The Mirror said: “A representative of Putin’s inner circle sent a signal about the desire to negotiate. “The mood of the Kremlin elite is panic.” Putin’s backstabbing official isn’t named in the document but has been described as a “pillar of the regime” in Russia. Ukraine believes high-ranking Kremlin officials are attempting to reach out to Western intelligence agencies behind Putin’s back, a Kyiv diplomatic source told The Mirror. “It is often the case as happened in the closing stages of the Second World War that officials on a side concerned about their future make approaches to ensure it,” they said. They added that many of the Russian elite have enjoyed the freedom of living in the West and are worried about losing it, but are too scared of what Putin might do to them to speak out. Have you seen the Death of Stalin? Cracking film, it'll be like that
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 16, 2022 7:36:34 GMT
Another Russian military base in occupied Crimea is exploding. People think this one is just ammo, which is good on its own, but it could be other kit too.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 16, 2022 8:10:32 GMT
A document believed to have been circulated around Western intelligence agencies and supposedly seen by The Mirror said: “A representative of Putin’s inner circle sent a signal about the desire to negotiate. “The mood of the Kremlin elite is panic.” Putin’s backstabbing official isn’t named in the document but has been described as a “pillar of the regime” in Russia. Ukraine believes high-ranking Kremlin officials are attempting to reach out to Western intelligence agencies behind Putin’s back, a Kyiv diplomatic source told The Mirror. “It is often the case as happened in the closing stages of the Second World War that officials on a side concerned about their future make approaches to ensure it,” they said.They added that many of the Russian elite have enjoyed the freedom of living in the West and are worried about losing it, but are too scared of what Putin might do to them to speak out. Sounds like the Tory Party leadership debacle too
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 16, 2022 10:27:08 GMT
Recent footage supposedly from that ammo dump that's exploding.
Looks like at least 6 Russian rocket launcher trucks were there at some point. Would be great if they splattered them.
Also it's very near the intersection of major rail lines in Crimea and some local government people are saying the tracks could be damaged. Ukraine also claims it damaged rail lines near Melitopol and Kherson. They've clearly got a big strategy going on.
EDIT: Reuters now says explosions at the Russian airbase near Simferopol. 24 attack jets based there. It's probably just a small partisan attack but we can hope!
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 16, 2022 12:38:46 GMT
Billions would starve to death within first years of nuclear war - from today's Telegraph:
Two thirds of people on the planet would die from starvation within two years of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, researchers have concluded.
Modelling by Rutgers University in New Jersey suggests nuclear weapon detonation would cause huge fires and inject soot into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight from reaching the surface and devastating crops.
The biggest war would cause starvation for three quarters of people and kill up to five billion within two years. But even a small skirmish - such as between India and Pakistan - would likely lead to 2.5 billion deaths within 24 months, the team concludes.
To judge the global devastation, researchers calculated how much sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons.
Under even the smallest nuclear scenario, food production based on total calorie content would reduce by 7 percent, but a full scale conflict between the US and Russia would see a fall of 90 per cent within three to four years. "The data tell us one thing: we must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening" said Alan Robock, professor of climate change at Rutgers.
The demise of crops in big exporting countries such as Russia and the US would cause major food shortages elsewhere, the study in the journal Nature Food found. The team said the outcome could be even worse as they have yet to factor in the damage caused by ultra-violet radiation to the planet's surface, once the ozone layer had been destroyed by the heating of the stratosphere.
Perhaps this helps to understand that reluctance to impose no fly zones and to put troops on the ground. Doesn't help Ukraine of course, but it reduces the risk of 75% of the rest of us going up in smoke or starving to death in a nuclear winter.
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Post by questionable on Aug 16, 2022 12:42:14 GMT
Major incident in Crimeria and some cracking footage on the BBC news. Multiple massive explosions that cover a vast area, obviously Russia saying its an accident but whatever has gone on it’s causing major damage to something.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2022 12:52:06 GMT
Billions would starve to death within first years of nuclear war - from today's Telegraph: Two thirds of people on the planet would die from starvation within two years of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, researchers have concluded.
Modelling by Rutgers University in New Jersey suggests nuclear weapon detonation would cause huge fires and inject soot into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight from reaching the surface and devastating crops.
The biggest war would cause starvation for three quarters of people and kill up to five billion within two years. But even a small skirmish - such as between India and Pakistan - would likely lead to 2.5 billion deaths within 24 months, the team concludes.
To judge the global devastation, researchers calculated how much sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons.
Under even the smallest nuclear scenario, food production based on total calorie content would reduce by 7 percent, but a full scale conflict between the US and Russia would see a fall of 90 per cent within three to four years. "The data tell us one thing: we must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening" said Alan Robock, professor of climate change at Rutgers.
The demise of crops in big exporting countries such as Russia and the US would cause major food shortages elsewhere, the study in the journal Nature Food found. The team said the outcome could be even worse as they have yet to factor in the damage caused by ultra-violet radiation to the planet's surface, once the ozone layer had been destroyed by the heating of the stratosphere.Perhaps this helps to understand that reluctance to impose no fly zones and to put troops on the ground. Doesn't help Ukraine of course, but it reduces the risk of 75% of the rest of us going up in smoke or starving to death in a nuclear winter. Scary reading. I suspect though that there would be very few initial survivors in England/Wales especially if it came to full scale nuclear war between US/Russia. Maybe the highlands would have relatively decent survival rates compared to the rest of the uk? But, if the leaked cold-war era maps of UK targets are to be believed, then stoke was a target. And it’s such a small city that a single strike in Hanley with modern weapons would surely be instant death for most (if not all) of the conurbation. I always laboured under the assumption just the big cities would get hit and mayyybe we could survive but, thinking it through, instant death is probably preferable. Sorry for this morbid train of thought. Hopefully it never comes to the worst.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 18, 2022 8:45:05 GMT
Ukraine: Road to WarMassive read but talks all about the Intel and discussions in the build up. Brilliant work IMO.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 18, 2022 8:51:18 GMT
Russia has been doing this big army kit expo recently with lots of news. All the news coming out suggests they're failing pretty badly. They boasted about how their factories made 40 tanks per year for export. They've lost about a thousand in six months in Ukraine. And now they're looking at factories for building old Soviet BMP-2s instead of modern BMP-3s - link. I think this shows their serious tech and money problems. The elite units will still have some modern kit but overall their army is going back in time.
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Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 18, 2022 8:53:25 GMT
Russia has been doing this big army kit expo recently with lots of news. All the news coming out suggests they're failing pretty badly. They boasted about how their factories made 40 tanks per year for export. They've lost about a thousand in six months in Ukraine. And now they're looking at factories for building old Soviet BMP-2s instead of modern BMP-3s - link. I think this shows their serious tech and money problems. The elite units will still have some modern kit but overall their army is going back in time. Let's hope they don't nuke us then out of spite if it becomes obvious that they can't and won't succeed in Ukraine
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 18, 2022 8:59:05 GMT
Russia has been doing this big army kit expo recently with lots of news. All the news coming out suggests they're failing pretty badly. They boasted about how their factories made 40 tanks per year for export. They've lost about a thousand in six months in Ukraine. And now they're looking at factories for building old Soviet BMP-2s instead of modern BMP-3s - link. I think this shows their serious tech and money problems. The elite units will still have some modern kit but overall their army is going back in time. Let's hope they don't nuke us then out of spite if it becomes obvious that they can't and won't succeed in Ukraine I think the Russians keep threatening that because they know it scares people. Putin has so much control he can just declare victory even after a retreat. Ukraine could agree to smash up all its Soviet era artillery and he could say it's "demilitarised" even if they're now using NATO Panzerhaubitzen, Krabs and CAESARs. Or preferably Putin dies a horribly painful death and the new leader changes things.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 18, 2022 9:00:47 GMT
Black line: 14th July. Red line: 14th August. EDIT: photos and video show Russia lost at least 101 main battle tanks and 15 jets in that month.
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Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 18, 2022 9:11:32 GMT
Let's hope they don't nuke us then out of spite if it becomes obvious that they can't and won't succeed in Ukraine I think the Russians keep threatening that because they know it scares people. Putin has so much control he can just declare victory even after a retreat. Ukraine could agree to smash up all its Soviet era artillery and he could say it's "demilitarised" even if they're now using NATO Panzerhaubitzen, Krabs and CAESARs. Or preferably Putin dies a horribly painful death and the new leader changes things. What ever leads us to not being nuked...I support that.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 18, 2022 9:18:55 GMT
I think the Russians keep threatening that because they know it scares people. Putin has so much control he can just declare victory even after a retreat. Ukraine could agree to smash up all its Soviet era artillery and he could say it's "demilitarised" even if they're now using NATO Panzerhaubitzen, Krabs and CAESARs. Or preferably Putin dies a horribly painful death and the new leader changes things. What ever leads us to not being nuked...I support that. Surrendering to Putin and letting Russian soldiers march through Kyiv and London would guarantee safety.
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Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 18, 2022 9:20:22 GMT
What ever leads us to not being nuked...I support that. Surrendering to Putin and letting Russian soldiers march through Kyiv and London would guarantee safety. He's not interested in London though.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 18, 2022 9:22:18 GMT
Surrendering to Putin and letting Russian soldiers march through Kyiv and London would guarantee safety. He's not interested in London though. And he's not gonna nuke us for defending democracy in Ukraine either. We just need top speed up the flow o big guns and ammo, make it through the winter and the Ukrainians will sort it out for us.
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Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 18, 2022 9:24:21 GMT
He's not interested in London though. And he's not gonna nuke us for defending democracy in Ukraine either. We just need top speed up the flow o big guns and ammo, make it through the winter and the Ukrainians will sort it out for us. I hope you are right mate
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Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 18, 2022 19:58:55 GMT
Lots of Russian infrastructure on fire tonight in Russia and Crimea.
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Post by chigstoke on Aug 18, 2022 20:12:36 GMT
Billions would starve to death within first years of nuclear war - from today's Telegraph: Two thirds of people on the planet would die from starvation within two years of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, researchers have concluded.
Modelling by Rutgers University in New Jersey suggests nuclear weapon detonation would cause huge fires and inject soot into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight from reaching the surface and devastating crops.
The biggest war would cause starvation for three quarters of people and kill up to five billion within two years. But even a small skirmish - such as between India and Pakistan - would likely lead to 2.5 billion deaths within 24 months, the team concludes.
To judge the global devastation, researchers calculated how much sun-blocking soot would enter the atmosphere from firestorms ignited by the detonation of nuclear weapons.
Under even the smallest nuclear scenario, food production based on total calorie content would reduce by 7 percent, but a full scale conflict between the US and Russia would see a fall of 90 per cent within three to four years. "The data tell us one thing: we must prevent a nuclear war from ever happening" said Alan Robock, professor of climate change at Rutgers.
The demise of crops in big exporting countries such as Russia and the US would cause major food shortages elsewhere, the study in the journal Nature Food found. The team said the outcome could be even worse as they have yet to factor in the damage caused by ultra-violet radiation to the planet's surface, once the ozone layer had been destroyed by the heating of the stratosphere.Perhaps this helps to understand that reluctance to impose no fly zones and to put troops on the ground. Doesn't help Ukraine of course, but it reduces the risk of 75% of the rest of us going up in smoke or starving to death in a nuclear winter. Scary reading. I suspect though that there would be very few initial survivors in England/Wales especially if it came to full scale nuclear war between US/Russia. Maybe the highlands would have relatively decent survival rates compared to the rest of the uk? But, if the leaked cold-war era maps of UK targets are to be believed, then stoke was a target. And it’s such a small city that a single strike in Hanley with modern weapons would surely be instant death for most (if not all) of the conurbation. I always laboured under the assumption just the big cities would get hit and mayyybe we could survive but, thinking it through, instant death is probably preferable. Sorry for this morbid train of thought. Hopefully it never comes to the worst. I'd say strategic targets for the Russians will have changed since the original probable UK target map from the 60's - 80's. Our industry in the city is practically non-existant now compared to then. The closest RAF base is in Stafford which would be the more likely target.
With modern weaponry, blast yield has been drastically reduced. A single strike in Hanley may well not wipe out all 6 towns, ofc depending on being a single warhead or multiple. They'd have to be incredibly fucking bored to have warheads targeted to Longton given it already looks post apocalyptic.
Still, could do without it of course. Not something I'd particularly like to chance.
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Post by mtrstudent on Aug 19, 2022 8:32:28 GMT
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Post by partickpotter on Aug 19, 2022 9:00:12 GMT
What awaits more than Ukraine. Because Putin’s ambitions go further than that country. He wants to reconstitute the USSR. Seemingly in Stalin’s image.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 19, 2022 10:26:13 GMT
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