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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Dec 23, 2021 10:35:18 GMT
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Post by themistocles on Dec 23, 2021 10:43:22 GMT
I belive so. The military build-up on Ukraine’s borders in the north, east and south in Crimea is different from the past. 75% of Russia’s total battalion tactical groups have been moved. Artillery, air defense units, tanks, APCs, bridge-laying equipment, mine clearers, armored excavators, engineering equipment, refueling, huge amount of logistics, etc. This is a massive mobilization and a clear preparation for an extensive invasion, not a bluff. You also can’t keep all this equipment, troops and logistics there forever. They would've pulled them back in the Summer else. |
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Post by richie22 on Dec 23, 2021 11:11:51 GMT
NATO can’t stand up to Russia, for too long Russia has been allowed to play these little games. And also we don’t have the ability to mobilise against such a force. Time is not on our side in this, resources are not as freely available and ready as they once were , I expect Russia to invade and go unchecked
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Post by ravey123 on Dec 23, 2021 11:20:07 GMT
NATO can’t stand up to Russia, for too long Russia has been allowed to play these little games. And also we don’t have the ability to mobilise against such a force. Time is not on our side in this, resources are not as freely available and ready as they once were , I expect Russia to invade and go unchecked I can see them invading Ukraine and the response will be a futile warning of sanctions from USA/EU which will be removed as soon as Russia turns the gas off. Basically they will invade unchecked and the West will do absolutely nothing about it - I cant really see what the West can do to be honest. |
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Dec 23, 2021 12:15:23 GMT
It would be a horrifying war. 41 million live in Ukraine. Imagine how terrified millions of Ukrainians are feeling right now?
I tend to agree with the sentiments above. My prediction is Nato and the Western forces will stand by and perhaps give Russia a slap on the wrist. That said, when some of the inevitably disturbing footage starts being released in the mainstream media and hitting our TVs, I think the mood of the public will change a bit and governments in the West will be put under immense pressure to act.
Fascinating but ghastly times ahead, should Russia invade.
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Post by lordb on Dec 23, 2021 12:26:22 GMT
They may not have to
If Putin can get what he wants then he wont invade for the sake of it
If the Ukraine govt collapsed & was replaced by a Russian leaning govt or puppet govt that would be enough for Putin
He will be happy to play a long game as he knows he's not going anywhere
If Russia does invade they will probably wait till such a time as the west is busy with some other crisis
Ukraine, Poland & the Baltic states need to stand as one on this
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Dec 23, 2021 13:11:23 GMT
Ukraine will most probably split in two, most people in eastern Ukraine are either massively pro-Russia, think of themselves as Russian, or are actually Russian anyway, and they're all still pissed off at the west's meddling to overthrow the pro-Russian leader & replace him with a pro-west stooge. Western Ukraine can buddy up closer to the west & join the EU, eastern Ukraine gives Putin back his buffer zone to western aggression. (Untill we decide to overthrow the new leader in eastern Ukraine & then we're back to square one).
Whatever happens hopefully we stay out of it, it's none of our business.
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Post by OldStokie on Dec 23, 2021 13:19:39 GMT
Ukraine is not part of NATO and will not be defended by anyone. But there will be repercussions that are far more dangerous than an invasion of Ukraine itself. Those in The West will impose even stricter sanctions on Russia and if they're too severe then Russia will turn off the gas supply to Europe. That will cause a massive economic downturn to those countries who rely on Russia's gas, most notably Germany. However, Russia will be committing hari-kari because they rely massively on gas exports as part of their GDP and filling the coffers of the Oligarchs who own the gas companies. This is when it becomes complicated. Putin is one of the cleverest politicians in the world and he'll know how far he can push things and get away reasonably unscathed. Invading Poland will be a step too far and he knows that will lead to a proper war. He won't go there but the mere threat of it will bolster his position to control a number of buffer states between the West and Russia, which has been his aim from the beginning.
Having said all that, there are a number of unknowns that might happen. China, sensing that their aim of controlling the world, could back Russia to the hilt, therefore nullifying the effects of sanctions by The West. At that point I suspect The West will pack NATO countries on the border with non-NATO countries with an army as massive as that Putin has done on the Ukraine border and there will be a standoff. That's the most dangerous time because it means one mistake by an idiot could lead to a war that might include nuclear weapons. Putin needs to be careful; The West needs to be careful.
Other than that, let's hope Powell is back soon so we can get promotion.
OS.
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Post by franklin on Dec 23, 2021 13:41:38 GMT
Ukraine will most probably split in two, most people in eastern Ukraine are either massively pro-Russia, think of themselves as Russian, or are actually Russian anyway, and they're all still pissed off at the west's meddling to overthrow the pro-Russian leader & replace him with a pro-west stooge. Western Ukraine can buddy up closer to the west & join the EU, eastern Ukraine gives Putin back his buffer zone to western aggression. (Untill we decide to overthrow the new leader in eastern Ukraine & then we're back to square one). Whatever happens hopefully we stay out of it, it's none of our business. Exactly a large proportion are Russian and won't see it as an invasion but being liberated. |
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Post by mrcoke on Dec 23, 2021 14:51:13 GMT
There is no doubt that Russia has an odious regime, but it is necessary to understand the Russia xenophobia about foreign invasion. For centuries other countries like Napoleon, Britain in the Crimea, and Hitler have fought wars in their country. It is hardly surprising they created the iron curtain after WW2 to act as a buffer. The iron curtain countries have been liberated but Russia is naturally concerned about NATO on its borders. If Russia do invade the Ukraine it would be to reestablish a buffer, rather than expansionist ambitions. Conversely there is more to be feared about expansionist ambitions of China who claim bordering territories and China Sea islands as their country. As with Russia there is scant regard for human rights if not more so. The West is becoming increasingly economically dependant on China and Russia, the former monopolising much supplies. We in the UK are conscious of our dependence on China having exported much of our production there during the last 30 years. Germany has not exported as much of its production to China, but nevertheless imports more from China than any other country. Germany's dependence on Russia for gas and Merkel and Scholz* seeking closer economic ties with China is very worrying. The EU naturally is siding with Germany, although the EU Parliament have stopped the investment agreement van der Leyern had agreed with China. The EU Commission seem keener to be pals with China and be antagonistic towards international corporations.** The goings on in Hong Kong this week lead me to expect there will a large influx of Hong Kong citizens seeking to come to the UK in the next few years. * www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-xi-jinping-deepen-economic-ties-germany-china-human-rights/** The EU are planning to pay for the pandemic recovery fund in part by substantial increases in taxes on multinationals. |
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Dec 23, 2021 14:55:16 GMT
There is no doubt that Russia has an odious regime, but it is necessary to understand the Russia xenophobia about foreign invasion. For centuries other countries like Napoleon, Britain in the Crimea, and Hitler have fought wars in their country. It is hardly surprising they created the iron curtain after WW2 to act as a buffer. The iron curtain countries have been liberated but Russia is naturally concerned about NATO on its borders. If Russia do invade the Ukraine it would be to reestablish a buffer, rather than expansionist ambitions. Conversely there is more to be feared about expansionist ambitions of China who claim bordering territories and China Sea islands as their country. As with Russia there is scant regard for human rights if not more so. The West is becoming increasingly economically dependant on China and Russia, the former monopolising much supplies. We in the UK are conscious of our dependence on China having exported much of our production there during the last 30 years. Germany has not exported as much of its production to China, but nevertheless imports more from China than any other country. Germany's dependence on Russia for gas and Merkel and Scholz* seeking closer economic ties with China is very worrying. The EU naturally is siding with Germany, although the EU Parliament have stopped the investment agreement van der Leyern had agreed with China. The EU Commission seem keener to be pals with China and be antagonistic towards international corporations.** The goings on in Hong Kong this week lead me to expect there will a large influx of Hong Kong citizens seeking to come to the UK in the next few years. * www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-xi-jinping-deepen-economic-ties-germany-china-human-rights/** The EU are planning to pay for the pandemic recovery fund in part by substantial increases in taxes on multinationals. What I don't quite understand and perhaps someone can kindly explain, what is Russia's justification for invading Ukraine? Ukraine gained its independance 30 years ago, so why is this now all of a sudden coming to a head? |
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Post by lawrieleslie on Dec 23, 2021 16:11:47 GMT
There is no doubt that Russia has an odious regime, but it is necessary to understand the Russia xenophobia about foreign invasion. For centuries other countries like Napoleon, Britain in the Crimea, and Hitler have fought wars in their country. It is hardly surprising they created the iron curtain after WW2 to act as a buffer. The iron curtain countries have been liberated but Russia is naturally concerned about NATO on its borders. If Russia do invade the Ukraine it would be to reestablish a buffer, rather than expansionist ambitions. Conversely there is more to be feared about expansionist ambitions of China who claim bordering territories and China Sea islands as their country. As with Russia there is scant regard for human rights if not more so. The West is becoming increasingly economically dependant on China and Russia, the former monopolising much supplies. We in the UK are conscious of our dependence on China having exported much of our production there during the last 30 years. Germany has not exported as much of its production to China, but nevertheless imports more from China than any other country. Germany's dependence on Russia for gas and Merkel and Scholz* seeking closer economic ties with China is very worrying. The EU naturally is siding with Germany, although the EU Parliament have stopped the investment agreement van der Leyern had agreed with China. The EU Commission seem keener to be pals with China and be antagonistic towards international corporations.** The goings on in Hong Kong this week lead me to expect there will a large influx of Hong Kong citizens seeking to come to the UK in the next few years. * www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-xi-jinping-deepen-economic-ties-germany-china-human-rights/** The EU are planning to pay for the pandemic recovery fund in part by substantial increases in taxes on multinationals. What I don't quite understand and perhaps someone can kindly explain, what is Russia's justification for invading Ukraine? Ukraine gained its independance 30 years ago, so why is this now all of a sudden coming to a head? Ukraine was once part of the old Eastern Bloc that also included Poland who are now fully fledged members of EU and NATO. Georgia, another ex Eastern Bloc member is preparing a membership to EU in 2024 and is a member of NATO's Peace Partnership and stand ready to join NATO.So back to Ukraine, they have a desire to join NATO and are a member of Deep & Comprehensive Free Trade Area with EU that also includes Maldova and Georgia. There is no justification but Putin is possibly thinking that invading Ukraine will go some way to stopping both EU and NATO expansion into the old Eastern Bloc. |
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Post by partickpotter on Dec 23, 2021 16:24:15 GMT
What I don't quite understand and perhaps someone can kindly explain, what is Russia's justification for invading Ukraine? Ukraine gained its independance 30 years ago, so why is this now all of a sudden coming to a head? Ukraine was once part of the old Eastern Bloc that also included Poland who are now fully fledged members of EU and NATO. Georgia, another ex Eastern Bloc member is preparing a membership to EU in 2024 and is a member of NATO's Peace Partnership and stand ready to join NATO.So back to Ukraine, they have a desire to join NATO and are a member of Deep & Comprehensive Free Trade Area with EU that also includes Maldova and Georgia. There is no justification but Putin is possibly thinking that invading Ukraine will go some way to stopping both EU and NATO expansion into the old Eastern Bloc. Putin is itching to show his power. And nibbling away at the most Russified parts of its former socialist republics is one way of doing it. He started with the Crimea and has had his eyes on the industrialised areas of eastern Ukraine for a while. The problem is there are quite a few other places where he could do similar things, particularly Estonia. As for the Ukrainians, it’s fair to say they don’t have much warmth in their hearts for Russia. Whether or not NATO steps in directly, Russia encroachment into Ukraine could be met with a ferocious reaction from the Ukraine. Of course, Putin ain’t daft. He knows Europe’s dependency on Russian gas will ameliorate any EU response which in turn will limit what NATO can do. In a way, it’s history repeating itself with Russia reasserting its hegemony over neighbouring countries. |
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Post by madstokie on Dec 23, 2021 17:03:35 GMT
NATO will not get involved just like they didn't with criminal as Russia is a bigger country and more powerful with nukes but if it was a weaker country like Iraq and Afghanistan they would and did, I reckon if Russia did then I think china would take a chance with Taiwan and probably end up with ww3 I hope not just my opinion
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2021 17:10:53 GMT
If they do invade, I hope Putin leads the charge. Ahorse, shirtless and magnificent.
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Post by 4372 on Dec 23, 2021 17:23:00 GMT
I'm old enough to remember the pre-2016 Brexit discussion on here. I particularly remember being that the EU had not contributed to keeping the peace in Europe some WW2,that had all been done by NATO. Now, it seems, people on here are suggesting that NATO will not react to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine...
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Post by sorethumbs on Dec 23, 2021 18:17:36 GMT
I'm old enough to remember the pre-2016 Brexit discussion on here. I particularly remember being that the EU had not contributed to keeping the peace in Europe some WW2,that had all been done by NATO. Now, it seems, people on here are suggesting that NATO will not react to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine... What a completely pointless post |
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Post by 4372 on Dec 23, 2021 18:32:34 GMT
Possibly you don't see the point of Collective Security?
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 23, 2021 18:42:47 GMT
If they do invade, I hope Putin leads the charge. Ahorse, shirtless and magnificent. We should solve more world problems with single combat like in Game of Thrones. I reckon Merkel would have absolutely battered Un. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2021 19:04:51 GMT
If they do invade, I hope Putin leads the charge. Ahorse, shirtless and magnificent. We should solve more world problems with single combat like in Game of Thrones. I reckon Merkel would have absolutely battered Un. Less diplomacy, more violent duels! |
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Post by OldStokie on Dec 23, 2021 20:04:03 GMT
I'm old enough to remember the pre-2016 Brexit discussion on here. I particularly remember being that the EU had not contributed to keeping the peace in Europe some WW2,that had all been done by NATO. Now, it seems, people on here are suggesting that NATO will not react to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine... They will, but only to a degree. I suspect Ukraine will become two separate states; a Russian friendly eastern sector + Crimea, and a western pro-EU sector. We may even have a Berlin Wall type of situation again. Then it will start all over again. Buffer zones are important when enemies are facing each other. They give time to sort things out before stuff gets out of hand. OS. |
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Post by 4372 on Dec 23, 2021 20:10:38 GMT
I'm old enough to remember the pre-2016 Brexit discussion on here. I particularly remember being that the EU had not contributed to keeping the peace in Europe some WW2,that had all been done by NATO. Now, it seems, people on here are suggesting that NATO will not react to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine... They will, but only to a degree. I suspect Ukraine will become two separate states; a Russian friendly eastern sector + Crimea, and a western pro-EU sector. We may even have a Berlin Wall type of situation again. Then it will start all over again. Buffer zones are important when enemies are facing each other. They give time to sort things out before stuff gets out of hand. OS. |
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Post by OldStokie on Dec 23, 2021 20:17:08 GMT
There is no doubt that Russia has an odious regime, but it is necessary to understand the Russia xenophobia about foreign invasion. For centuries other countries like Napoleon, Britain in the Crimea, and Hitler have fought wars in their country. It is hardly surprising they created the iron curtain after WW2 to act as a buffer. The iron curtain countries have been liberated but Russia is naturally concerned about NATO on its borders. If Russia do invade the Ukraine it would be to reestablish a buffer, rather than expansionist ambitions. Conversely there is more to be feared about expansionist ambitions of China who claim bordering territories and China Sea islands as their country. As with Russia there is scant regard for human rights if not more so. The West is becoming increasingly economically dependant on China and Russia, the former monopolising much supplies. We in the UK are conscious of our dependence on China having exported much of our production there during the last 30 years. Germany has not exported as much of its production to China, but nevertheless imports more from China than any other country. Germany's dependence on Russia for gas and Merkel and Scholz* seeking closer economic ties with China is very worrying. The EU naturally is siding with Germany, although the EU Parliament have stopped the investment agreement van der Leyern had agreed with China. The EU Commission seem keener to be pals with China and be antagonistic towards international corporations.** The goings on in Hong Kong this week lead me to expect there will a large influx of Hong Kong citizens seeking to come to the UK in the next few years. * www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-xi-jinping-deepen-economic-ties-germany-china-human-rights/** The EU are planning to pay for the pandemic recovery fund in part by substantial increases in taxes on multinationals. What I don't quite understand and perhaps someone can kindly explain, what is Russia's justification for invading Ukraine? Ukraine gained its independance 30 years ago, so why is this now all of a sudden coming to a head? Because Western backed influences have tried to make Ukraine their puppet state. The Western Media have put a slant on this as if everything is the fault of Russia. Political hegemony by The West has been going on for years in one form or another. Russia is pushing back. China is doing the same in the South China Sea. OS. |
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Post by partickpotter on Dec 23, 2021 20:23:43 GMT
If they do invade, I hope Putin leads the charge. Ahorse, shortarse and magnificent. Just a wee correction… wee being the operative word. |
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Post by 4372 on Dec 23, 2021 20:26:14 GMT
I'm old enough to remember the pre-2016 Brexit discussion on here. I particularly remember being that the EU had not contributed to keeping the peace in Europe some WW2,that had all been done by NATO. Now, it seems, people on here are suggesting that NATO will not react to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine... They will, but only to a degree. I suspect Ukraine will become two separate states; a Russian friendly eastern sector + Crimea, and a western pro-EU sector. We may even have a Berlin Wall type of situation again. Then it will start all over again. Buffer zones are important when enemies are facing each other. They give time to sort things out before stuff gets out of hand. OS. Yes, i can see sense in what you write here. European and Russian borders have been fought over since at least the time of Peter the Great, not just the Soviet era. And they are being fought over now, more than 30 years after the fall of the USSR. Collective Security, in the form of a coherent,focused,and united approach from NATO and the EU, might have been the best chance of resolving this crisis. Instead,this looks rather like the international relations of the 1930s. |
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Post by felonious on Dec 23, 2021 22:50:39 GMT
What I don't quite understand and perhaps someone can kindly explain, what is Russia's justification for invading Ukraine? Ukraine gained its independance 30 years ago, so why is this now all of a sudden coming to a head? Ukraine was once part of the old Eastern Bloc that also included Poland who are now fully fledged members of EU and NATO. Georgia, another ex Eastern Bloc member is preparing a membership to EU in 2024 and is a member of NATO's Peace Partnership and stand ready to join NATO.So back to Ukraine, they have a desire to join NATO and are a member of Deep & Comprehensive Free Trade Area with EU that also includes Maldova and Georgia. There is no justification but Putin is possibly thinking that invading Ukraine will go some way to stopping both EU and NATO expansion into the old Eastern Bloc. The prospect of EU membership, an EU army on the horizon and EU politicians being belligerent on platforms in the Ukraine won't help either. |
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Dec 23, 2021 22:57:17 GMT
What's Ukraine's own military like? Could they cause some damage to Russia's forces without the help of Nato?
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Post by felonious on Dec 23, 2021 23:00:25 GMT
He's had a rant tonight. "We didn't come to the US or UK borders, no, they came to ours," he said during the mammoth four hour session, accusing Nato of cheating Russia with five waves of expansion since the 1990s. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59766810Struggling economy, dissent at home, perhaps he needs a war. |
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Dec 23, 2021 23:42:48 GMT
What's Ukraine's own military like? Could they cause some damage to Russia's forces without the help of Nato? 60,000 deployed troops compared to Russia’s 1 million, a 6 billion euro defence budget compared to Russia’s 70 billion euros and a tiny fraction of the weaponry. In a full scale war they’d be annihilated…… Ouch 😒 |
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Post by themistocles on Dec 24, 2021 1:00:10 GMT
What's Ukraine's own military like? Could they cause some damage to Russia's forces without the help of Nato? 60,000 deployed troops compared to Russia’s 1 million, a 6 billion euro defence budget compared to Russia’s 70 billion euros and a tiny fraction of the weaponry. In a full scale war they’d be annihilated…… Ukraine has close to 250,00 active military personnel with close to 1 million reservists. They have close to 4million military aged males to call to arms and thousands of veterans. |
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