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Post by chuffedstokie on Jul 4, 2022 8:44:24 GMT
It's happening just off the coast here in Cardigan bay the restricted area has been made larger. Amount of aircraft activity has increased ten fold, Hercules, helicopters of varying variety and F15 using the Mach loop is now almost a daily routine as opposed to maybe twice a month. Remember this firing range from my time on HMS London in 1970s test firing the ancient Sea Slug AA missile and again on HMS Arrow in the 80s firing Exocet on same range. Had some good runs ashore in Fishguard and Aberporth. Had many conflicts with local fishing vessels fouling the range at the last minute fucking up hours of preparation. Bless them. Monday morning and the aerial activities are going on again, this is almost becoming daily routine now.
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Post by noustie on Jul 4, 2022 12:14:58 GMT
www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/7/4/can-the-g7-proposal-for-a-cap-on-russian-oil-prices-workCan the G7 proposal for a cap on Russian oil prices work? The G7 would need to get large consumers like India and China involved for such a plan to work.
“I’m afraid it seems likely prices will rise”, said Ash. “Unless we see some resolution on Ukraine. The UK has to a certain extent its own energy, France has nuclear, Italy has some alternate sources, but is it enough?
“On the gas issue, one needs to look at the end of the pipelines – which in Europe is Spain, southern Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria – all these countries will need to make dramatic decisions over their stance on Ukraine if Russia shuts down the supply.”
Lindstaedt added: “This is why [Ukrainian President] Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that the war needs to be over by January. There is concern that the winter is going to create a huge demand for energy and Russia will be at a greater advantage.”www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/4/ukraine-recovery-summit-in-switzerlandMeeting to create road map for Ukraine reconstruction opens Two-day conference begins in Switzerland with representatives from dozens of countries and several international institutions.Absolutely no idea where this is going but if they’re drawing up a road map for recovery wonder if there’s already moves in the background for what would be a suitable escape route out of it for the west and Russia. Can honestly see Ukraine getting shafted once Donetsk is under Russian control and the eastern part of the country being in some weird cold war stasis that’ll keep Russia occupied fiscally and militarily to retain control whilst Ukraine are basically bribed with rebuilding strategies so half of Europe aren’t freezing this winter.
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Post by noustie on Jul 4, 2022 12:21:56 GMT
There are divisions there. India and China seem on opposite sides. And Republicans in the US want to tear down democracy and end the US' membership of what most Europeans would consider the free west. The future is looking a bit 1984 right now. Different authoritarian countries using their competition to prop each other's governments up. Indeed, the Indians and the Chinese have a very fractious relationship. Can’t see any way India joins a China in a military confrontation Yeah see it more as an economic marraige of convenience than anything else and gives them collective scope to possibly ignore US telling them how high to jump. If China do end up pushing for Taiwan or ramp up the South China Seas stuff be interesting to see what India would do because Modi seems up there with the most mental rulers in the world which is quite an acheivement really. Would he see it as a chance to have a go for Kashmir if China chill out on the Indian border? You'd hope and think not but on the other hand the world is run by populist nut jobs at the moment so god knows how this pans out in the next 10 years.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 4, 2022 14:31:34 GMT
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 5, 2022 9:56:38 GMT
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Post by noustie on Jul 5, 2022 12:39:19 GMT
Looks to be a tactical withdrawal to avoid complete encirclement of its troops, so a sensible decision for Ukraine. Difficult to see what Putin’s end game is. No doubt he can continue to take more ground in the Donbas but what then? The international community will not recognise whatever regimes are announced there. For as long as they exist, Russia will be isolated politically and economically - at least from the West but to a significant degree from elsewhere too. China, for example, may well continue to work with Russia but it will be on vastly different terms. They will remember, or at least their political elite will, their regular humiliation at the hands of Stalin et al in the days of Mao. Even keeping put, the cost of occupying any territory they have gained will be colossal. Something their economy will not be able to bear along with the substantial sanctions that will remain and quite possibly be added to. Selling their oil and gas at basement prices to China won’t particularly help. As mentioned earlier, winning the “peace” is a lot tougher than winning a war (even a partial war). Thoroughly depressing take on their three pronged strategy - deport useful folk to Russia in areas that'll be a pain in the arse to control and have no interest in getting industry back up and running in; bribe the locals in areas they need to keep sweet and; wipe out the villages that are of no interest in the countryside. www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/4/whats-life-like-in-russia-occupied-parts-of-ukraine
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 5, 2022 13:49:09 GMT
Difficult to see what Putin’s end game is. No doubt he can continue to take more ground in the Donbas but what then? The international community will not recognise whatever regimes are announced there. For as long as they exist, Russia will be isolated politically and economically - at least from the West but to a significant degree from elsewhere too. China, for example, may well continue to work with Russia but it will be on vastly different terms. They will remember, or at least their political elite will, their regular humiliation at the hands of Stalin et al in the days of Mao. Even keeping put, the cost of occupying any territory they have gained will be colossal. Something their economy will not be able to bear along with the substantial sanctions that will remain and quite possibly be added to. Selling their oil and gas at basement prices to China won’t particularly help. As mentioned earlier, winning the “peace” is a lot tougher than winning a war (even a partial war). Thoroughly depressing take on their three pronged strategy - deport useful folk to Russia in areas that'll be a pain in the arse to control and have no interest in getting industry back up and running in; bribe the locals in areas they need to keep sweet and; wipe out the villages that are of no interest in the countryside. www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/4/whats-life-like-in-russia-occupied-parts-of-ukraineHe’s been reading that fine book by Josef Stalin… How to win friends and influence people
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 6, 2022 15:39:13 GMT
After Finland went through with NATO application, Russia started withdrawing military vehicles from its border.
This shows all the comments about "Russia invaded Ukraine because it's scared of a NATO attack" were just lies from the start. Russia knows NATO won't attack.
I think it's good to remember things like this, in case we fell for the lies originally and thought "maybe Putin really was scared..." No. And the same groups are pushing different lies now to try and make us abandon Ukrainians to rape, torture and murder by Putin's thugs.
"Ukraine isn't a real democracy", "Ukraine doesn't stand a chance so weapons will be wasted", "the weapons are too powerful and will just prolong the war" etc. All Russian propaganda, be careful.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 7, 2022 14:04:22 GMT
Seems like targeting ammo stores is the plan. Russians can't blow up cities without shells!
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jul 7, 2022 21:51:06 GMT
Looks to be a tactical withdrawal to avoid complete encirclement of its troops, so a sensible decision for Ukraine. Difficult to see what Putin’s end game is. No doubt he can continue to take more ground in the Donbas but what then? The international community will not recognise whatever regimes are announced there. For as long as they exist, Russia will be isolated politically and economically - at least from the West but to a significant degree from elsewhere too. China, for example, may well continue to work with Russia but it will be on vastly different terms. They will remember, or at least their political elite will, their regular humiliation at the hands of Stalin et al in the days of Mao. Even keeping put, the cost of occupying any territory they have gained will be colossal. Something their economy will not be able to bear along with the substantial sanctions that will remain and quite possibly be added to. Selling their oil and gas at basement prices to China won’t particularly help. As mentioned earlier, winning the “peace” is a lot tougher than winning a war (even a partial war). Sections of the economy are struggling, but Russia is making a mint on gas and oil sales to Europe. Putin pulled a blinder by making "unfriendly" countries pay for gas and oil in Roubles, which explains why the Rouble has recovered its value against the Dollar and Euro. There are also huge question marks over the origin of some oil in oil tankers sailing around the world.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 7, 2022 22:37:20 GMT
There was a lull in videos of Russian tanks going boom but this last week has seen quite a few more hit Twitter. Great to see!
They’re doing a fine of job of blowing up the Russian ammo stockpiles too.
And this seems a very good point.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 8, 2022 11:01:41 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 8, 2022 17:19:50 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 9, 2022 14:32:19 GMT
Difficult to see what Putin’s end game is. No doubt he can continue to take more ground in the Donbas but what then? The international community will not recognise whatever regimes are announced there. For as long as they exist, Russia will be isolated politically and economically - at least from the West but to a significant degree from elsewhere too. China, for example, may well continue to work with Russia but it will be on vastly different terms. They will remember, or at least their political elite will, their regular humiliation at the hands of Stalin et al in the days of Mao. Even keeping put, the cost of occupying any territory they have gained will be colossal. Something their economy will not be able to bear along with the substantial sanctions that will remain and quite possibly be added to. Selling their oil and gas at basement prices to China won’t particularly help. As mentioned earlier, winning the “peace” is a lot tougher than winning a war (even a partial war). Sections of the economy are struggling, but Russia is making a mint on gas and oil sales to Europe. Putin pulled a blinder by making "unfriendly" countries pay for gas and oil in Roubles, which explains why the Rouble has recovered its value against the Dollar and Euro. There are also huge question marks over the origin of some oil in oil tankers sailing around the world. What's the best value for the rouble for Putin though? I don't get how the "pay in roubles" thing matters that much unless it helps shield other Russian banks from different sanctions. The headlines about 700m EUR/day are still fresh in our minds, but now European buys are down to around 250m EUR/day. There will be wiggles, but it'll be below 200 by the end of the year. I think all that matters is the total amount of profit that Russia gets from oil and gas and that's what the West is targeting. Russia's sugar rush after the invasion is coming to an end.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 9, 2022 14:41:36 GMT
New videos show Russian missiles shooting off in random directions or just falling out of the sky. The latest rumour is that they're using anti-aircraft missiles in ground attaacks. Sounds unlikely, but they're def using lots of really old anti-ship missiles like the Kh-22. It looks just like it would if Russia is running low on modern cruise & ballistic missiles. This is important because of two bits of Russian propaganda I saw: 1) Putin supporters said we shouldn't send aid because Russia would just blow it up. Bullshit. 2) Putin supporters said the Russian rocket terror attack on the train station where they murdered a load of refugees was done by the Ukrainians. They said this was because only Ukraine used the "old junk" Tochka missiles. A few days back, Russian propaganda was saying they had loads of missiles left and showed Russian Tochka launches to prove it.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 9, 2022 14:45:26 GMT
Russia started with about 3,000 tanks working, supposedly. I was pretty convinced by the video arguing that Russia had about 6,000 workable tanks, given a year or two to fix up those in storage. Russia has to be really careful and can't risk many big fast attacks like it tried on Kyiv because it would just lose tanks too quickly. A dozen a day and it'd be down to scraps within the year.
This is why I think the rumours about attacking Odesa are crazy, we'd see it coming months ahead.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jul 9, 2022 16:40:51 GMT
Sections of the economy are struggling, but Russia is making a mint on gas and oil sales to Europe. Putin pulled a blinder by making "unfriendly" countries pay for gas and oil in Roubles, which explains why the Rouble has recovered its value against the Dollar and Euro. There are also huge question marks over the origin of some oil in oil tankers sailing around the world. What's the best value for the rouble for Putin though? I don't get how the "pay in roubles" thing matters that much unless it helps shield other Russian banks from different sanctions. The headlines about 700m EUR/day are still fresh in our minds, but now European buys are down to around 250m EUR/day. There will be wiggles, but it'll be below 200 by the end of the year. I think all that matters is the total amount of profit that Russia gets from oil and gas and that's what the West is targeting. Russia's sugar rush after the invasion is coming to an end. I'm a bit weak on foreign currency exchange, but I believe that by paying in Roubles, the EU banks have to buy Roubles from Russia at a rate that Russia specifies, so not only do they make money on the sale of energy, they also make money by selling Roubles at a higher price than they should be.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 9, 2022 17:36:17 GMT
What's the best value for the rouble for Putin though? I don't get how the "pay in roubles" thing matters that much unless it helps shield other Russian banks from different sanctions. The headlines about 700m EUR/day are still fresh in our minds, but now European buys are down to around 250m EUR/day. There will be wiggles, but it'll be below 200 by the end of the year. I think all that matters is the total amount of profit that Russia gets from oil and gas and that's what the West is targeting. Russia's sugar rush after the invasion is coming to an end. I'm a bit weak on foreign currency exchange, but I believe that by paying in Roubles, the EU banks have to buy Roubles from Russia at a rate that Russia specifies, so not only do they make money on the sale of energy, they also make money by selling Roubles at a higher price than they should be. Ah right that could make sense if they're doing it like that. Not sure how the oil&gas contracts work but I still think Putin buggered the Russian economy longer term.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Jul 9, 2022 18:11:47 GMT
I'm a bit weak on foreign currency exchange, but I believe that by paying in Roubles, the EU banks have to buy Roubles from Russia at a rate that Russia specifies, so not only do they make money on the sale of energy, they also make money by selling Roubles at a higher price than they should be. Ah right that could make sense if they're doing it like that. Not sure how the oil&gas contracts work but I still think Putin buggered the Russian economy longer term. I think that's the calculation he made, and he knows that it's only a matter of time before relations will be normalised and energy will be top of the list for open sale again.
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Post by noustie on Jul 9, 2022 18:46:05 GMT
What's the best value for the rouble for Putin though? I don't get how the "pay in roubles" thing matters that much unless it helps shield other Russian banks from different sanctions. The headlines about 700m EUR/day are still fresh in our minds, but now European buys are down to around 250m EUR/day. There will be wiggles, but it'll be below 200 by the end of the year. I think all that matters is the total amount of profit that Russia gets from oil and gas and that's what the West is targeting. Russia's sugar rush after the invasion is coming to an end. I'm a bit weak on foreign currency exchange, but I believe that by paying in Roubles, the EU banks have to buy Roubles from Russia at a rate that Russia specifies, so not only do they make money on the sale of energy, they also make money by selling Roubles at a higher price than they should be. Saw this earlier today: www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/russias-ruble-is-at-strongest-level-in-7-years-despite-sanctions.htmlCountries are buying useful stuff from a country they shouldn't with a currency they shouldn't so much so Russia had to devalue it themselves to remain competitive. Interest rates are back where they were before the invasion! But it's all fine and working really because they can't buy shit from us so it's value is fake although Countries have to pay that rate for oil that's meant be sanctioned. 15% of them are living in poverty so we can all take solace that the sanctions are working when we attend Central heating parties this winter. Genuinely absolutely fuck knows what's going on!
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Post by noustie on Jul 9, 2022 20:11:49 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 10, 2022 15:01:08 GMT
I honestly think it's going to make a huge difference. Russia's economy stopped growing in 2014, just after the Crimea sanctions. Companies decided not to build factories and research bases etc in Russia so while countries everywhere else were growing, Russia hit a wall. That could be why Ukraine is blowing the shit out of old designs like the T-72 instead of facing hundreds of far tougher and faster T-14s.
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Post by turtlefox on Jul 10, 2022 20:03:28 GMT
It's a very good watch if you have the time.
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Post by Gob Bluth on Jul 10, 2022 20:15:40 GMT
This is speculative but I found it interesting.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 10, 2022 23:35:07 GMT
Since four HIMARS missile launchers went out, we see a video of 1+ exploding Russian command post or ammo dump almost every single night. Imagine what Ukraine could achieve with enough to keep a few dozen in the field and firing every night! The Russians claimed to have destroyed two but the video "proof" was just their artillery missing some buildings.
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Post by noustie on Jul 11, 2022 7:08:52 GMT
This is speculative but I found it interesting. Think this will be of interest: www.cnbc.com/2022/07/10/canada-to-return-repaired-nord-stream-1-turbine-expand-sanctions-on-russia.htmlCanada have agreed to send back to Germany a turbine needed for the Germans to secure gas out of Nord Stream I even though the gas production and the turbine itself are sanctioned. Ukraine not happy obviously but not to worry Canada have put a temporary although undefined window on the timeframe being allowed and Germany have promised they really want to stop using Russian gas at some point in the future. We're also going to keep buying the gas for a while but beef up the sanctions that were going to stop the supply of gas months ago. Even in post truth bizarro world we currently frequent Canada saying they're unwavering in their support of Ukraine after sending out that turbine is off the bullshit scale. In the interim Ukraine are just meant to carry on I suppose whilst we flog/give them more more tampons and tank guns. Genuinely have no fucking idea what is going on but Ukraine seem to being utilised as the filling in a massive shit sandwich
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 11, 2022 8:02:27 GMT
This is speculative but I found it interesting. Think this will be of interest: www.cnbc.com/2022/07/10/canada-to-return-repaired-nord-stream-1-turbine-expand-sanctions-on-russia.htmlCanada have agreed to send back to Germany a turbine needed for the Germans to secure gas out of Nord Stream I even though the gas production and the turbine itself are sanctioned. Ukraine not happy obviously but not to worry Canada have put a temporary although undefined window on the timeframe being allowed and Germany have promised they really want to stop using Russian gas at some point in the future. We're also going to keep buying the gas for a while but beef up the sanctions that were going to stop the supply of gas months ago. Even in post truth bizarro world we currently frequent Canada saying they're unwavering in their support of Ukraine after sending out that turbine is off the bullshit scale. In the interim Ukraine are just meant to carry on I suppose whilst we flog/give them more more tampons and tank guns. Genuinely have no fucking idea what is going on but Ukraine seem to being utilised as the filling in a massive shit sandwich Ukraine are in the shit, but not a shit sandwich. The shit comes from one side - Russia. Europe has a colossal problem with its need for Russian gas. There ain’t an easy solution to that so compromises will be needed. And are being constantly made. Ukraine though is fighting for its life because it chooses to do. The support it gets from the West is allowing it do fight. They are not being utilised by the West, they are being enabled by the West. This is a critical distinction. Of course, the west could withdraw support and allow Putin to seize Ukraine. And what then… well we have a good idea, Putin has clear territorial ambitions which he will continue with. So, Ukraine’s resistance to the evil that is Putin supported by the West along with the accompanying compromises is where we are. Not ideal, but war ain’t a tidy place.
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Post by noustie on Jul 11, 2022 9:52:44 GMT
Think this will be of interest: www.cnbc.com/2022/07/10/canada-to-return-repaired-nord-stream-1-turbine-expand-sanctions-on-russia.htmlCanada have agreed to send back to Germany a turbine needed for the Germans to secure gas out of Nord Stream I even though the gas production and the turbine itself are sanctioned. Ukraine not happy obviously but not to worry Canada have put a temporary although undefined window on the timeframe being allowed and Germany have promised they really want to stop using Russian gas at some point in the future. We're also going to keep buying the gas for a while but beef up the sanctions that were going to stop the supply of gas months ago. Even in post truth bizarro world we currently frequent Canada saying they're unwavering in their support of Ukraine after sending out that turbine is off the bullshit scale. In the interim Ukraine are just meant to carry on I suppose whilst we flog/give them more more tampons and tank guns. Genuinely have no fucking idea what is going on but Ukraine seem to being utilised as the filling in a massive shit sandwich Ukraine are in the shit, but not a shit sandwich. The shit comes from one side - Russia. Europe has a colossal problem with its need for Russian gas. There ain’t an easy solution to that so compromises will be needed. And are being constantly made. Ukraine though is fighting for its life because it chooses to do. The support it gets from the West is allowing it do fight. They are not being utilised by the West, they are being enabled by the West. This is a critical distinction. Of course, the west could withdraw support and allow Putin to seize Ukraine. And what then… well we have a good idea, Putin has clear territorial ambitions which he will continue with. So, Ukraine’s resistance to the evil that is Putin supported by the West along with the accompanying compromises is where we are. Not ideal, but war ain’t a tidy place. But surely if we're 'enabling' Ukraine to defend itself we're equally enabling Russia to attack them by still buying their energy. It accounts for over a third of their gdp yet their economy could shrink as little as 3.5%. It's like giving a bloke a lifetime supply of sticks to enable him to defend himself against a bear we're feeding glucose to and prodding up the arse with a hot poker. We'll stop giving it glucose at some point in the future but our conscious is clear because here's another bigger stick in the interim!
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 11, 2022 10:42:25 GMT
Ukraine are in the shit, but not a shit sandwich. The shit comes from one side - Russia. Europe has a colossal problem with its need for Russian gas. There ain’t an easy solution to that so compromises will be needed. And are being constantly made. Ukraine though is fighting for its life because it chooses to do. The support it gets from the West is allowing it do fight. They are not being utilised by the West, they are being enabled by the West. This is a critical distinction. Of course, the west could withdraw support and allow Putin to seize Ukraine. And what then… well we have a good idea, Putin has clear territorial ambitions which he will continue with. So, Ukraine’s resistance to the evil that is Putin supported by the West along with the accompanying compromises is where we are. Not ideal, but war ain’t a tidy place. But surely if we're 'enabling' Ukraine to defend itself we're equally enabling Russia to attack them by still buying their energy. It accounts for over a third of their gdp yet their economy could shrink as little as 3.5%. It's like giving a bloke a lifetime supply of sticks to enable him to defend himself against a bear we're feeding glucose to and prodding up the arse with a hot poker. We'll stop giving it glucose at some point in the future but our conscious is clear because here's another bigger stick in the interim! Not really. Converting cash into weapons isn't straightforward. The problem for Russia is it will find it very hard, if not impossible, to source the parts and material (and know how) it needs to cover the losses it is incurring. So, they may become cash rich but asset light. In other words, the Western aid into Ukraine goes very quickly into battle; the revenue Russia gains from gas sales will take a long time, if ever, to become manifest on the ground in Ukraine.
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Post by OldStokie on Jul 11, 2022 11:18:28 GMT
It's a very good watch if you have the time. This is chilling (and I've watched all of it), not because I think he's right, but because, although he's an intellectual, he's also a right-wing nutter and a God-botherer to boot. Much of what he says is correct, and most of those correct things are what a non-intellectual can deduce from the situation, but then he strays into theological pastures of insanity and right-wing extremism that would make Steve Bannon look like Jeremy Corbyn. He's a very dangerous individual. OS.
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