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Post by lawrieleslie on Jul 1, 2022 12:18:29 GMT
It's happening just off the coast here in Cardigan bay the restricted area has been made larger. Amount of aircraft activity has increased ten fold, Hercules, helicopters of varying variety and F15 using the Mach loop is now almost a daily routine as opposed to maybe twice a month. Remember this firing range from my time on HMS London in 1970s test firing the ancient Sea Slug AA missile and again on HMS Arrow in the 80s firing Exocet on same range. Had some good runs ashore in Fishguard and Aberporth. Had many conflicts with local fishing vessels fouling the range at the last minute fucking up hours of preparation. Bless them.
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Post by chuffedstokie on Jul 1, 2022 12:24:45 GMT
It's happening just off the coast here in Cardigan bay the restricted area has been made larger. Amount of aircraft activity has increased ten fold, Hercules, helicopters of varying variety and F15 using the Mach loop is now almost a daily routine as opposed to maybe twice a month. Remember this firing range from my time on HMS London in 1970s test firing the ancient Sea Slug AA missile and again on HMS Arrow in the 80s firing Exocet on same range. Had some good runs ashore in Fishguard and Aberporth. Had many conflicts with local fishing vessels fouling the range at the last minute fucking up hours of preparation. Bless them. Aberporth seems to be the key hub in all of this where the UKR guys are working from. I've spoken with our harbourmaster and the skipper of a charter fishing boat who's had his wings clipped a bit. Commercial fishing boats from Aberystwyth and Aberdyfi don't venture far enough into the live firing areas.
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Post by questionable on Jul 1, 2022 14:28:30 GMT
Remember this firing range from my time on HMS London in 1970s test firing the ancient Sea Slug AA missile and again on HMS Arrow in the 80s firing Exocet on same range. Had some good runs ashore in Fishguard and Aberporth. Had many conflicts with local fishing vessels fouling the range at the last minute fucking up hours of preparation. Bless them. Aberporth seems to be the key hub in all of this where the UKR guys are working from. I've spoken with our harbourmaster and the skipper of a charter fishing boat who's had his wings clipped a bit. Commercial fishing boats from Aberystwyth and Aberdyfi don't venture far enough into the live firing areas. My brother was a gunner on the challenger 2 and I’ve been lucky enough to have a close up of one, enormous thing. Can’t recall exactly where he took me near Cirencester but there was loads of superb thatched cottages very close by to a firing range and recall all the pavements were knackered where the tank tracks had clipped them. He also told me they’d use old boats in the sea for firing practices. When I was there I actually picked up the casing for a spent round fired from a tank, it’s enormous and used for an umbrella stand outside.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 1, 2022 17:06:58 GMT
Biden agrees to send rocket launcher trucks. I can't find the thread but apparently these are beasts. They can park, get GPS targets and launch within minutes then drive off before they shot back. Even some modern Russian ones have to be manually stabilised, then someone has to target through a freaking telescope type thing while spinning a big handle to move the targeting. It takes ~15 minutes. Also: American rocket accuracy is within 5 metres, Russian is within 170 metres. No joke. Rocket artillery is difficult because the ammo is enormous so supplying it is hard, and you're vulnerable to planes. But if Biden has the balls to deliver 72 of them like the Ukrainian rumours suggeset, then that sounds huge. Even if you ignore the main battle, Snake Island is within their range and satellites show a bunch of expensive Russian anti aircraft vehicles there. It'd be a real shame if they were blown to shit. From a month ago... Biden only sent 4 HIMARS so far but looks like they're really helping. And it's a pity Russia left Snake Island. Ukraine was loving the targeting gallery.
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Post by superjw on Jul 1, 2022 17:58:34 GMT
£1bn spent on the struggling UK public with cost of living would be better placed tbh. We have already given more than most. Money for war but not the poor eh?
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Post by questionable on Jul 1, 2022 19:35:34 GMT
Biden agrees to send rocket launcher trucks. I can't find the thread but apparently these are beasts. They can park, get GPS targets and launch within minutes then drive off before they shot back. Even some modern Russian ones have to be manually stabilised, then someone has to target through a freaking telescope type thing while spinning a big handle to move the targeting. It takes ~15 minutes. Also: American rocket accuracy is within 5 metres, Russian is within 170 metres. No joke. Rocket artillery is difficult because the ammo is enormous so supplying it is hard, and you're vulnerable to planes. But if Biden has the balls to deliver 72 of them like the Ukrainian rumours suggeset, then that sounds huge. Even if you ignore the main battle, Snake Island is within their range and satellites show a bunch of expensive Russian anti aircraft vehicles there. It'd be a real shame if they were blown to shit. From a month ago... Biden only sent 4 HIMARS so far but looks like they're really helping. And it's a pity Russia left Snake Island. Ukraine was loving the targeting gallery. Lovely piece of kit and has a top speed of 45mph, Fire move, Fire, move, I honestly hope they annihilate thousands upon thousands of pro Russian forces.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 1, 2022 20:27:24 GMT
How do you feel about the Russian siege of Mariupol? Anywhere from 10-50,000 dead civilians. Let's say you have 100 blame tokens so share the fault, how do you split them up? I wrestled with this all the way home from work last night - christ I'm sad but an hour commute with shite on the radio the mind ticks away It's obviously a highly emotive question but I feel it is structured purposefully to avoid context or nuance. I would hope in allocating the chips my decsion would be the same regardless the colour and pattern of the flags involved. Essentially without that context though the killing of up to 50,000 civillians is obviously horrendous but then see you and raise you building a dam to block 85% of water supply to cause drought to a 2.5m population: www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-troops-destroy-ukrainian-dam-that-blocked-water-crimea-ria-2022-02-26/If you're viewing it through the lense of singular events too how would your tokens stack up in comparison to Dresden in WW2 or the two atomic bombs for example? For me it's pointless unless we're looking at causation along with analaysubg promximate cause as to what got us to where we are and if you would like how my chips would fall in that regard I could do that as generally think it's a far more interesting and indepth question to waste our afternoon over. I heard the tokens question on another topic from someone else, I think it's better than just saying it's all one person or group's fault! Not sure that Dresden changes my opinion on Mariupol. For me it's 100 tokens to Putin and the Russian military and zero to Ukraine. They wanted to invade and dominate people in a democratic country who didn't want them there. When people didn't bend over, they started slaughtering them. Would you give any blame tokens to those who died in Mariupol? I've heard it argued that they could have just got out before the war. US intelligence told them Russia was going to attack and they knew Russia's military is all about mass murdering civilians.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 1, 2022 20:30:58 GMT
£1bn spent on the struggling UK public with cost of living would be better placed tbh. We have already given more than most. Money for war but not the poor eh? We've also spent £10s of billions on the NHS, pensions and benefits in that time too. I'm nervous about war spending, Blair pissing away billion in Iraq still riles me up, but Ukraine is a case of democracy under attack. Free people are calling for help, and the free world should answer.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Jul 1, 2022 20:43:50 GMT
£1bn spent on the struggling UK public with cost of living would be better placed tbh. We have already given more than most. Money for war but not the poor eh? We've also spent £10s of billions on the NHS, pensions and benefits in that time too. I'm nervous about war spending, Blair pissing away billion in Iraq still riles me up, but Ukraine is a case of democracy under attack. Free people are calling for help, and the free world should answer. Democracy? The way things are going I’d have some concerns about that. What about the parties who were outlawed and the people who voted for them to represent them.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 1, 2022 20:45:21 GMT
"Russia's Economy is Collapsing, Data Reveals" - maybe overboard with "collapsing" but it's not good. Overall manufacturing dropped just 3%, but some areas are whacked. Car production down by 97%, engines down 57%, diesel trains down 63% etc. From what I understand, those numbers will go up in future as Russia sorts its factories out, but they'll be making shittier cars and falling even further behind in technology on almost everything.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 1, 2022 20:46:39 GMT
We've also spent £10s of billions on the NHS, pensions and benefits in that time too. I'm nervous about war spending, Blair pissing away billion in Iraq still riles me up, but Ukraine is a case of democracy under attack. Free people are calling for help, and the free world should answer. Democracy? The way things are going I’d have some concerns about that. What about the parties who were outlawed and the people who voted for them to represent them. As I said, I'm nervous about that but don't think it's convincing. They seem to be collaborationist parties, and when another country is literally trying to exterminate your culture we've historically accepted states of emergency. If you follow those articles posted earlier, you can see that some of the sources were affiliated with RT, so it's not surprising they're trying to "both sides" it to make Ukraine look worse. Ukraine wants to join the EU, so it is required to have a functioning democracy to do so.
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Post by noustie on Jul 1, 2022 21:14:46 GMT
I wrestled with this all the way home from work last night - christ I'm sad but an hour commute with shite on the radio the mind ticks away It's obviously a highly emotive question but I feel it is structured purposefully to avoid context or nuance. I would hope in allocating the chips my decsion would be the same regardless the colour and pattern of the flags involved. Essentially without that context though the killing of up to 50,000 civillians is obviously horrendous but then see you and raise you building a dam to block 85% of water supply to cause drought to a 2.5m population: www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-troops-destroy-ukrainian-dam-that-blocked-water-crimea-ria-2022-02-26/If you're viewing it through the lense of singular events too how would your tokens stack up in comparison to Dresden in WW2 or the two atomic bombs for example? For me it's pointless unless we're looking at causation along with analaysubg promximate cause as to what got us to where we are and if you would like how my chips would fall in that regard I could do that as generally think it's a far more interesting and indepth question to waste our afternoon over. I heard the tokens question on another topic from someone else, I think it's better than just saying it's all one person or group's fault! Not sure that Dresden changes my opinion on Mariupol. For me it's 100 tokens to Putin and the Russian military and zero to Ukraine. They wanted to invade and dominate people in a democratic country who didn't want them there. When people didn't bend over, they started slaughtering them. Would you give any blame tokens to those who died in Mariupol? I've heard it argued that they could have just got out before the war. US intelligence told them Russia was going to attack and they knew Russia's military is all about mass murdering civilians. How many tokens would you need before one wouldn't have been sufficient? I could give 100 tokens, 1000 tokens, x + 1 tokens to RT and they'd lump them all on Ukraine and the West. Partisanship is pointless and counterproductive for me. The whole point of 100 tokens is nuance and context. Viewed in isolation Luke Skywalker blowing up the Death Star housing thousands of army blokes earning a living and protecting their way of life is an arsehole. Again if you want the hundred tokens split on how we got where we are with my personal opinion of complicit partners on that journey then more than happy to oblige as genuinely find it interesting - going 'all in' on one side or the other not so much.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 1, 2022 21:20:56 GMT
Russian accuracy in action 🤣🤣
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Post by noustie on Jul 1, 2022 21:23:17 GMT
We've also spent £10s of billions on the NHS, pensions and benefits in that time too. I'm nervous about war spending, Blair pissing away billion in Iraq still riles me up, but Ukraine is a case of democracy under attack. Free people are calling for help, and the free world should answer. Democracy? The way things are going I’d have some concerns about that. What about the parties who were outlawed and the people who voted for them to represent them. Wiki has the Ukrainian Communist Party banned since 2014 en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_UkraineSvoboda who oppose immigration, gays and organised a march to commemorate the SS still on the ballot en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_(political_party)
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 2, 2022 6:22:10 GMT
Well considering the communists killed at least as many if not more Ukrainians than the Germans killed Jews And then subjugated the country for decades You can understand the apparent dislike for communism
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Post by noustie on Jul 2, 2022 6:38:12 GMT
Well considering the communists killed at least as many if not more Ukrainians than the Germans killed Jews And then subjugated the country for decades You can understand the apparent dislike for communism Without doubt but surely a properly functioning democracy bans neither or both.
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Post by noustie on Jul 2, 2022 7:21:33 GMT
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 2, 2022 8:32:13 GMT
Not sure it says anything new… It suggests, correctly that in a war of attrition the side capable of sustaining a war of attrition will come out on top. For both sides the factors determining how long they will stay in the fight are different. For Ukraine it is the resolve of the democracies backing them. While they, the democracies, think the public backs them, they will back Ukraine. But the longer the war goes on the greater the likelihood that backing diminishes. For Russia, it’s their ability to sustain the war effort particularly if Ukraine can, with the aid of western military equipment, cause major losses through the winter. One thing the article doesn’t cover is the challenges Russia has if it does achieve its objectives (whatever they are). As the Americans and Russians both know from bitter experience, taking ground is one thing, holding it a totally different affair. The financial and political cost of occupying the Donbas will be colossal and never ending. I’d be astonished if Russia’s meagre economy can cope - and that’s even before considering the ever increasing impact of sanctions.
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Post by questionable on Jul 2, 2022 8:51:13 GMT
Not sure it says anything new… It suggests, correctly that in a war of attrition the side capable of sustaining a war of attrition will come out on top. For both sides the factors determining how long they will stay in the fight are different. For Ukraine it is the resolve of the democracies backing them. While they, the democracies, think the public backs them, they will back Ukraine. But the longer the war goes on the greater the likelihood that backing diminishes. For Russia, it’s their ability to sustain the war effort particularly if Ukraine can, with the aid of western military equipment, cause major losses through the winter. One thing the article doesn’t cover is the challenges Russia has if it does achieve its objectives (whatever they are). As the Americans and Russians both know from bitter experience, taking ground is one thing, holding it a totally different affair. The financial and political cost of occupying the Donbas will be colossal and never ending. I’d be astonished if Russia’s meagre economy can cope - and that’s even before considering the ever increasing impact of sanctions. I can see Putin coming out with we’ve depleted their armed forces, etc, etc as a win, when in reality UKR will be armed to the teeth with far superior Western equipment. I long for the day when I wake up to hear Putin is dead
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 2, 2022 8:59:26 GMT
Not sure it says anything new… It suggests, correctly that in a war of attrition the side capable of sustaining a war of attrition will come out on top. For both sides the factors determining how long they will stay in the fight are different. For Ukraine it is the resolve of the democracies backing them. While they, the democracies, think the public backs them, they will back Ukraine. But the longer the war goes on the greater the likelihood that backing diminishes. For Russia, it’s their ability to sustain the war effort particularly if Ukraine can, with the aid of western military equipment, cause major losses through the winter. One thing the article doesn’t cover is the challenges Russia has if it does achieve its objectives (whatever they are). As the Americans and Russians both know from bitter experience, taking ground is one thing, holding it a totally different affair. The financial and political cost of occupying the Donbas will be colossal and never ending. I’d be astonished if Russia’s meagre economy can cope - and that’s even before considering the ever increasing impact of sanctions. Russia will be hoping for a new world order, it’s an ambitious aim I grant you but with China, India, Brazil, swathes of Africa, Asia and Latin America willing to trade and do deals with them in the short, medium and long term they may just be able to recover and grow in strength. I don’t think it will happen by the way, I’m merely putting myself in their shoes……
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 2, 2022 9:20:54 GMT
Not sure it says anything new… It suggests, correctly that in a war of attrition the side capable of sustaining a war of attrition will come out on top. For both sides the factors determining how long they will stay in the fight are different. For Ukraine it is the resolve of the democracies backing them. While they, the democracies, think the public backs them, they will back Ukraine. But the longer the war goes on the greater the likelihood that backing diminishes. For Russia, it’s their ability to sustain the war effort particularly if Ukraine can, with the aid of western military equipment, cause major losses through the winter. One thing the article doesn’t cover is the challenges Russia has if it does achieve its objectives (whatever they are). As the Americans and Russians both know from bitter experience, taking ground is one thing, holding it a totally different affair. The financial and political cost of occupying the Donbas will be colossal and never ending. I’d be astonished if Russia’s meagre economy can cope - and that’s even before considering the ever increasing impact of sanctions. Russia will be hoping for a new world order, it’s an ambitious aim I grant you but with China, India, Brazil, swathes of Africa, Asia and Latin America willing to trade and do deals with them in the short, medium and long term they may just be able to recover and grow in strength. I don’t think it will happen by the way, I’m merely putting myself in their shoes…… I’m sure you’re right on both counts - Russia seeing itself as the lead in a new world order that counters the west and that it won’t happen. It’s easy to forget that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was only partial in that while many former Soviet Republics became independent, many republics remained (and remain) part of the Russian Federation. And, by all accounts, they are not happy. They feel exploited and undervalued… and with good reason. The active successionist movements in those republics have become more active and emboldened by the war in Ukraine as they increasingly and disproportionately feel the financial and human cost and are remote enough from Moscow that Putin’s control is significantly reduced. (Think Boris Johnson in Scotland multiplied by 100,000+). I rather suspect China would not be unhappy to see the resource rich republics on its northern border become independent states. Putin should be very wary of China.
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 2, 2022 10:25:52 GMT
Russia will be hoping for a new world order, it’s an ambitious aim I grant you but with China, India, Brazil, swathes of Africa, Asia and Latin America willing to trade and do deals with them in the short, medium and long term they may just be able to recover and grow in strength. I don’t think it will happen by the way, I’m merely putting myself in their shoes…… I’m sure you’re right on both counts - Russia seeing itself as the lead in a new world order that counters the west and that it won’t happen. It’s easy to forget that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was only partial in that while many former Soviet Republics became independent, many republics remained (and remain) part of the Russian Federation. And, by all accounts, they are not happy. They feel exploited and undervalued… and with good reason. The active successionist movements in those republics have become more active and emboldened by the war in Ukraine as they increasingly and disproportionately feel the financial and human cost and are remote enough from Moscow that Putin’s control is significantly reduced. (Think Boris Johnson in Scotland multiplied by 100,000+). I rather suspect China would not be unhappy to see the resource rich republics on its northern border become independent states. Putin should be very wary of China. The world should be wary of China The sooner we wean this country off cheap Chinese tat the better
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Post by noustie on Jul 2, 2022 10:59:31 GMT
The US and EU economies are about 30% world GDP and BRICS is about 25% plus looking to add new members particularly in the Middle East.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 2, 2022 15:25:48 GMT
The US and EU economies are about 30% world GDP and BRICS is about 25% plus looking to add new members particularly in the Middle East. There are divisions there. India and China seem on opposite sides. And Republicans in the US want to tear down democracy and end the US' membership of what most Europeans would consider the free west. The future is looking a bit 1984 right now. Different authoritarian countries using their competition to prop each other's governments up.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Jul 2, 2022 15:38:33 GMT
The US and EU economies are about 30% world GDP and BRICS is about 25% plus looking to add new members particularly in the Middle East. There are divisions there. India and China seem on opposite sides. And Republicans in the US want to tear down democracy and end the US' membership of what most Europeans would consider the free west. The future is looking a bit 1984 right now. Different authoritarian countries using their competition to prop each other's governments up. Indeed, the Indians and the Chinese have a very fractious relationship. Can’t see any way India joins a China in a military confrontation
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 2, 2022 16:02:30 GMT
Looks like Ukrainian sources are saying Russians broke through several towns in Luhansk. If accurate they'll have to retreat from the last fortress south of Lysychansk, or the soldiers there will be trapped. This would be terrible news but it would still be a tiny victory for Russia compared with what they've wanted the whole time. General Twitter/Telegram news backs this up. Rumours the Ukrainians left Lysychansk so Luhansk oblast has fallen. The next line of defence on that side is Bakhmut-Siversk. These are smaller but block some east routes to the main Russian goals of Kramatorsk-Slovyansk (K-S). For comparison: K-S is a bit bigger than Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk (S-L) which just fell. Also, it's harder to encircle, and we started hearing about how S-L was gonna get surrounded and fall "soon" back in March or so. So it looks like a much harder challenge for Russia.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 3, 2022 16:20:04 GMT
Looks like Ukrainian sources are saying Russians broke through several towns in Luhansk. If accurate they'll have to retreat from the last fortress south of Lysychansk, or the soldiers there will be trapped. This would be terrible news but it would still be a tiny victory for Russia compared with what they've wanted the whole time. General Twitter/Telegram news backs this up. Rumours the Ukrainians left Lysychansk so Luhansk oblast has fallen. The next line of defence on that side is Bakhmut-Siversk. These are smaller but block some east routes to the main Russian goals of Kramatorsk-Slovyansk (K-S). For comparison: K-S is a bit bigger than Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk (S-L) which just fell. Also, it's harder to encircle, and we started hearing about how S-L was gonna get surrounded and fall "soon" back in March or so. So it looks like a much harder challenge for Russia.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 4, 2022 4:12:22 GMT
General Twitter/Telegram news backs this up. Rumours the Ukrainians left Lysychansk so Luhansk oblast has fallen. The next line of defence on that side is Bakhmut-Siversk. These are smaller but block some east routes to the main Russian goals of Kramatorsk-Slovyansk (K-S). For comparison: K-S is a bit bigger than Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk (S-L) which just fell. Also, it's harder to encircle, and we started hearing about how S-L was gonna get surrounded and fall "soon" back in March or so. So it looks like a much harder challenge for Russia. Seems confirmed now. A tragedy. But still haven't seen videos of mass Ukrainian surrenders or of piles of dead so we can hope they got most of their soldiers out.
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Post by hcstokie on Jul 4, 2022 5:18:17 GMT
Seems confirmed now. A tragedy. But still haven't seen videos of mass Ukrainian surrenders or of piles of dead so we can hope they got most of their soldiers out. Looks to be a tactical withdrawal to avoid complete encirclement of its troops, so a sensible decision for Ukraine.
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 4, 2022 6:13:51 GMT
Seems confirmed now. A tragedy. But still haven't seen videos of mass Ukrainian surrenders or of piles of dead so we can hope they got most of their soldiers out. Looks to be a tactical withdrawal to avoid complete encirclement of its troops, so a sensible decision for Ukraine. Difficult to see what Putin’s end game is. No doubt he can continue to take more ground in the Donbas but what then? The international community will not recognise whatever regimes are announced there. For as long as they exist, Russia will be isolated politically and economically - at least from the West but to a significant degree from elsewhere too. China, for example, may well continue to work with Russia but it will be on vastly different terms. They will remember, or at least their political elite will, their regular humiliation at the hands of Stalin et al in the days of Mao. Even keeping put, the cost of occupying any territory they have gained will be colossal. Something their economy will not be able to bear along with the substantial sanctions that will remain and quite possibly be added to. Selling their oil and gas at basement prices to China won’t particularly help. As mentioned earlier, winning the “peace” is a lot tougher than winning a war (even a partial war).
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