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Post by Vadiation_Ribe on Feb 17, 2022 14:01:04 GMT
Is it just me, or is there something very different about the team/squad now, in comparison to any time over the past, say, three years? There's a balance that has emerged in the last few games that simply wasn't there before. The way the team is being set up now shows a confidence that had been missing. There's pace - lot's of it - there's goals in the side, where previously, there were few; and there's a lot more depth. Confidence is high, and we look as if we now expect to win games (albeit, the concession of such a late goal against was very frustrating, and avoidable)' At no other time in the last few years have we had more reason to be as confident in the squad as we can be now. I think that confidence is also beginning to show in the manager, as he picks more attack-minded sides than before. The role that Baker plays in all of this is absolutely huge. He is now the axis around which everything else revolves. Since his arrival especially, everything seems to be clicking into place; the reduced burden has made Allen a different player of late. Whatever about anyone else, we need Baker to stay fit for the rest of the season. If he can do that, the signs are emerging that we can be that team that makes the late run for the play-offs. I can't see us lose more than a couple of the remaining fixtures and, for good measure, I wouldn't be surprised if we did a number on Palace, especially if do not take us absolutely seriously. The return of Powell has made a big positive difference too. Philogene-Bidace has hit the ground running - Matondo and Clarke didn't. There are a few factors, but I agree Baker is one of the biggest in our upturn.
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Post by jokker on Feb 17, 2022 16:48:20 GMT
Versus Palace we'll have to do it without Baker, who is cuptied. Palace pretty irrelevant go me. We're not going to win the cup but have a chance of play offs. We don't need more games although a big cup game always nice if we were to get through although usually v a second string If you draw a big gun You've made that point several times in different threads, but it doesn't make it any more right, and anyway the OP made his point and I mine. Can't you just let us enjoy the cup run or must jesusmcmuffin be top of the agenda in every thread on the subject? A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. At the moment we're able to say we've won four of our last (league and cup) games, not just two of our last nine league games, all of which gives you a better platform for the final haul. And...even if we lose, we can still trade on the good feeling the cup run gave us as we go into our final 16 cupfinals, all of which must not be lost, of course. It'd be good if we won them all, that would make promotion more realistic, but winning them may not be realistic at all...
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Post by thevoid on Feb 17, 2022 17:24:32 GMT
Palace pretty irrelevant go me. We're not going to win the cup but have a chance of play offs. We don't need more games although a big cup game always nice if we were to get through although usually v a second string If you draw a big gun You've made that point several times in different threads, but it doesn't make it any more right, and anyway the OP made his point and I mine. Can't you just let us enjoy the cup run or must jesusmcmuffin be top of the agenda in every thread on the subject? A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. At the moment we're able to say we've won four of our last (league and cup) games, not just two of our last nine league games, all of which gives you a better platform for the final haul. And...even if we lose, we can still trade on the good feeling the cup run gave us as we go into our final 16 cupfinals, all of which must not be lost, of course. It'd be good if we won them all, that would make promotion more realistic, but winning them may not be realistic at all... One wonders how 'Jesus' has time to have all of his many adventures when he's up and down every thread on The Oatcake like a whirling dervish...
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Post by markby on Feb 17, 2022 17:50:46 GMT
Wasting your breath mate. Haters just gonna hate no matter what facts you present them. I'll have a private bet with you that Stoke don't make the play offs. I'll lay you 11/2. FiveThirtyEight currently have Stoke's P/O chances as 24% = 3/1:
You might need a bit more time in Bookmaker School before setting up in business.
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Post by markby on Feb 17, 2022 18:04:42 GMT
2 points per game is totally doable in my opinion i am optimistic. Actually it doesn't have to be quite so much, since 1.813 ppg would leave you on 72 points, which would likely be enough and seems attainable with a run of good form etc.
Otoh, that would represent a 26.52% improvement on your 1.433 ppg performance to date, which doesn't look quite so straightfoward.
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Post by markby on Feb 17, 2022 18:23:29 GMT
A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. Brentford owner Matthew Benham, a hugely successful professional sports gambler and football club owner, reckons that cups are actually an unhelpful distraction/drain on a league promotion push, which is why Bees have never taken them seriously during his time in charge.
He has cited eg Bees playing Chelsea in the FA Cup 3rd Round in 2013 while in League One (drew at home, lost the replay at SB). Before the draw was made, they gained 31 points from 39 in an unbeated 13 game run. But in the six games before and after the initial tie and replay, they only achieved 6 points from 18. That season they finished 3rd, 4 points behind automatic.
(And before anyone says "Too small a sample size", I've no doubt he's run the stats for numerous other equivalents, going back years.)
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Post by jokker on Feb 18, 2022 5:43:43 GMT
A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. Brentford owner Matthew Benham, a hugely successful professional sports gambler and football club owner, reckons that cups are actually an unhelpful distraction/drain on a league promotion push, which is why Bees have never taken them seriously during his time in charge. He has cited eg Bees playing Chelsea in the FA Cup 3rd Round in 2013 while in League One (drew at home, lost the replay at SB). Before the draw was made, they gained 31 points from 39 in an unbeated 13 game run. But in the six games before and after the initial tie and replay, they only achieved 6 points from 18. That season they finished 3rd, 4 points behind automatic. (And before anyone says "Too small a sample size", I've no doubt he's run the stats for numerous other equivalents, going back years.)
If this were remotely true you'd have to ask why do 92 league clubs plus 24 nonleague dittos turn up at all in January each year? Were they to follow Benham's expertise they'd have to be too scared to compete.
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Post by potter1989 on Feb 18, 2022 6:17:18 GMT
Changing the subject here a little, but, if we win our next 3 games (could happen) and we find ourselves really in the mix for the play offs, what would u like to see O’Neill do for the palace game, rest 11 players or go for that aswell and try get in the hat for next round, thinking of money, Just curious what peoples opinion is,
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Feb 18, 2022 6:58:50 GMT
Changing the subject here a little, but, if we win our next 3 games (could happen) and we find ourselves really in the mix for the play offs, what would u like to see O’Neill do for the palace game, rest 11 players or go for that aswell and try get in the hat for next round, thinking of money, Just curious what peoples opinion is, Go for it as well. Get busy living or get busy dying. Momentum in football often counts for a lot.
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Post by Uncle cheese on Feb 18, 2022 7:03:39 GMT
A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. Brentford owner, a hugely successful professional sports gambler and football club owner, reckons that cups are actually an unhelpful distraction/drain on a league promotion push, which is why Bees have never taken them seriously during his time in charge.
He has cited eg Bees playing Chelsea in the FA Cup 3rd Round in 2013 while in League One (drew at home, lost the replay at SB). Before the draw was made, they gained 31 points from 39 in an unbeated 13 game run. But in the six games before and after the initial tie and replay, they only achieved 6 points from 18. That season they finished 3rd, 4 points behind automatic.
(And before anyone says "Too small a sample size", I've no doubt he's run the stats for numerous other equivalents, going back years.)
They got to the league cup semi final last season didn’t they? Then got promoted
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Feb 18, 2022 9:13:10 GMT
Palace pretty irrelevant go me. We're not going to win the cup but have a chance of play offs. We don't need more games although a big cup game always nice if we were to get through although usually v a second string If you draw a big gun You've made that point several times in different threads, but it doesn't make it any more right, and anyway the OP made his point and I mine. Can't you just let us enjoy the cup run or must jesusmcmuffin be top of the agenda in every thread on the subject? A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. At the moment we're able to say we've won four of our last (league and cup) games, not just two of our last nine league games, all of which gives you a better platform for the final haul. And...even if we lose, we can still trade on the good feeling the cup run gave us as we go into our final 16 cupfinals, all of which must not be lost, of course. It'd be good if we won them all, that would make promotion more realistic, but winning them may not be realistic at all... You really don't get how a message board works do you? It really isn't your job to decide who replies to what and how often. I actually agree with you on this one, we have a lot of players to integrate and the more game time the better - however Mr MuMuffin has every right to argue with you or me as many times as he wants. Get used to it - this is a message board not your personal blog.
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Post by jokker on Feb 18, 2022 9:30:49 GMT
Changing the subject here a little, but, if we win our next 3 games (could happen) and we find ourselves really in the mix for the play offs, what would u like to see O’Neill do for the palace game, rest 11 players or go for that aswell and try get in the hat for next round, thinking of money, Just curious what peoples opinion is, Win the lot, promotion and the cup. Although I don't think either will happen, it could.
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Post by jokker on Feb 18, 2022 9:37:50 GMT
You've made that point several times in different threads, but it doesn't make it any more right, and anyway the OP made his point and I mine. Can't you just let us enjoy the cup run or must jesusmcmuffin be top of the agenda in every thread on the subject? A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. At the moment we're able to say we've won four of our last (league and cup) games, not just two of our last nine league games, all of which gives you a better platform for the final haul. And...even if we lose, we can still trade on the good feeling the cup run gave us as we go into our final 16 cupfinals, all of which must not be lost, of course. It'd be good if we won them all, that would make promotion more realistic, but winning them may not be realistic at all... You really don't get how a message board works do you? It really isn't your job to decide who replies to what and how often. I actually agree with you on this one, we have a lot of players to integrate and the more game time the better - however Mr MuMuffin has every right to argue with you or me as many times as he wants. Get used to it - this is a message board not your personal blog. You really don't get how a message board works do you? I'm allowed to express what I think and there's not a thing you can do about it. So if I dislike jesu's ways I can say it here. With his daily saying the same things over and over again 11000 times, I am allowed some dissent.
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Post by kustokie on Feb 18, 2022 9:54:45 GMT
You really don't get how a message board works do you? It really isn't your job to decide who replies to what and how often. I actually agree with you on this one, we have a lot of players to integrate and the more game time the better - however Mr MuMuffin has every right to argue with you or me as many times as he wants. Get used to it - this is a message board not your personal blog. You really don't get how a message board works do you? I'm allowed to express what I think and there's not a thing you can do about it. So if I dislike jesu's ways I can say it here. With his daily saying the same things over and over again 11000 times, I am allowed some dissent. Yes but don’t get into irrelevant arguments or you’ll either be ignored or ganged up on. The former will exclude you from the discussion and the latter will tie you up in the proverb Staffordshire knot. Stick to the matter in hand and stay away from insults because they contribute nothing to the discussion.
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Post by jokker on Feb 18, 2022 10:51:04 GMT
You really don't get how a message board works do you? I'm allowed to express what I think and there's not a thing you can do about it. So if I dislike jesu's ways I can say it here. With his daily saying the same things over and over again 11000 times, I am allowed some dissent. Yes but don’t get into irrelevant arguments or you’ll either be ignored or ganged up on. The former will exclude you from the discussion and the latter will tie you up in the proverb Staffordshire knot. Stick to the matter in hand and stay away from insults because they contribute nothing to the discussion. Well if everyone sticks to those rules...I'll be happy to toe the line.
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Post by iglugluk on Feb 18, 2022 11:14:46 GMT
Changing the subject here a little, but, if we win our next 3 games (could happen) and we find ourselves really in the mix for the play offs, what would u like to see O’Neill do for the palace game, rest 11 players or go for that aswell and try get in the hat for next round, thinking of money, Just curious what peoples opinion is, Play every game to win , regardless would be my preference. It's certainly not unusual to see a downturn in form after a cup defeat, though, so I would also be hoping MO'N doesnt overhype the games either. Balance is a key principle, in everything and it is very difficult to achieve. Football is no different.
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Post by nottinghamstokie on Feb 18, 2022 11:39:27 GMT
Not to be negative, but if we make the playoffs and then somehow get through three games, I cannot see anything other than us getting weekly hammerings in the Prem next season as we would still be limited in how much money we could spend, wouldn't we, or have I got that wrong ?
I would prefer a seriously good season next year, hopefully less FFP risk and promotion then to be honest
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Post by apb1 on Feb 18, 2022 11:47:28 GMT
Not to be negative, but if we make the playoffs and then somehow get through three games, I cannot see anything other than us getting weekly hammerings in the Prem next season as we would still be limited in how much money we could spend, wouldn't we, or have I got that wrong ? I would prefer a seriously good season next year, hopefully less FFP risk and promotion then to be honest 100m income is pretty much standard in premier league. Would be possible to structure contracts etc such that we got some quality additions to the squad. Other clubs seem to have been cautious perhaps mindful of returns to owners. Our owners don't care about returns which might help us. Having said all that the size of the task in staying up can't be underestimated. But this would also be the case next season or whenever. There is no 'right time', carpe diem.
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Post by markby on Feb 18, 2022 11:47:45 GMT
Brentford owner Matthew Benham, a hugely successful professional sports gambler and football club owner, reckons that cups are actually an unhelpful distraction/drain on a league promotion push, which is why Bees have never taken them seriously during his time in charge. He has cited eg Bees playing Chelsea in the FA Cup 3rd Round in 2013 while in League One (drew at home, lost the replay at SB). Before the draw was made, they gained 31 points from 39 in an unbeated 13 game run. But in the six games before and after the initial tie and replay, they only achieved 6 points from 18. That season they finished 3rd, 4 points behind automatic. (And before anyone says "Too small a sample size", I've no doubt he's run the stats for numerous other equivalents, going back years.)
If this were remotely true you'd have to ask why do 92 league clubs plus 24 nonleague dittos turn up at all in January each year? Were they to follow Benham's expertise they'd have to be too scared to compete. The "smart" (technical) answer is because it is a condition of FA Membership that they enter a team in the FA Cup (remember Man U had to get special dispensation to skip the Cup because it clashed with a World Club Championship tie?).
But the real explanation is multi-faceted. For one thing, many teams are neither in a promotion or relegation battle, so the Cup will be neither a distraction or a drain.
And for many lower or non-league clubs, a Cup run can be too good to turn down financially.
Some clubs see it as a good opportunity to gave game time to young or fringe players, with the bigger clubs knowing that they can still compete, esp when up against a lower club.
While other clubs clearly don't give a damn, enter weakened teams and don't complain if they go out early.
Finally, some club owners/managers don't accept that a Cup run can be a distraction or a drain, feeling instead that it can provide a boost to their league season.
They may be right I suppose, but I personally would back Benham's judgement on such matters over theirs.
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Post by thebet365 on Feb 18, 2022 11:55:10 GMT
Not to be negative, but if we make the playoffs and then somehow get through three games, I cannot see anything other than us getting weekly hammerings in the Prem next season as we would still be limited in how much money we could spend, wouldn't we, or have I got that wrong ? I would prefer a seriously good season next year, hopefully less FFP risk and promotion then to be honest You've got it wrong, we could spend a fortune like we did last time we were in the Prem.
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Post by markby on Feb 18, 2022 12:18:35 GMT
Brentford owner, a hugely successful professional sports gambler and football club owner, reckons that cups are actually an unhelpful distraction/drain on a league promotion push, which is why Bees have never taken them seriously during his time in charge.
He has cited eg Bees playing Chelsea in the FA Cup 3rd Round in 2013 while in League One (drew at home, lost the replay at SB). Before the draw was made, they gained 31 points from 39 in an unbeated 13 game run. But in the six games before and after the initial tie and replay, they only achieved 6 points from 18. That season they finished 3rd, 4 points behind automatic.
(And before anyone says "Too small a sample size", I've no doubt he's run the stats for numerous other equivalents, going back years.)
They got to the league cup semi final last season didn’t they? Then got promoted The League Cup is different from the FA Cup, in that it's over by February i.e. while the players are still fresh and before the "business end" of the season, . And in any case Brentford got lucky in the early rounds, drawing teams who were struggling at the time (Wycombe, Fulham, WBA, Soton, Newcastle). Meaning they could play weakened teams and still go through, since the opposition were also weakened.
Their general approach to cup competition was better illustrated by the time the FA Cup came round in the New Year. In the 3rd round they drew Boro at home and scraped through 2-1 with a weakened team. In the 4th Round they were home to Leicester, didn't pick any of their 1st team regulars and went out 3-1 to a similarly weakened Foxes team.
That was the 13th time in 14 FA Cup ties where Brentford had gone out to a top flight opponent, with many Bees fans annoyed that their club doesn't take the Cups seriously.
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Post by jokker on Feb 18, 2022 12:22:27 GMT
Not to be negative, but if we make the playoffs and then somehow get through three games, I cannot see anything other than us getting weekly hammerings in the Prem next season as we would still be limited in how much money we could spend, wouldn't we, or have I got that wrong ? I would prefer a seriously good season next year, hopefully less FFP risk and promotion then to be honest And if finances stay the same, ffp the same or similar with the minor changes, should we abstain from promotion next season too, and the one after? No, you have to take the opportunity when it knocks. This season there's been one really good team at the top, about 1-3 that belong there too, and 16 teams that have just about an equal claim to the last two play off spaces (as the season moves on, the number becomes smaller), and the four left to fight against relegation. That's quite a good development, as every club currently have something to chase or fight against, so there's usually a few unexpected results every week, and no unimportant games. There's no guarantee that next season will form the same way. There could be six teams that set out on an early winning spree (except when they play each other) and if they get away with 10 pts or more in the autumn or early winter, then it could get difficult for the teams between 7-16 (or whateever) to regain momentum and join the promotion race. If we're midtable in November we could stay there or thereabouts all season. Then we'll long for what is the current season when we had a chance of reaching the play offs in mid February. No, don't ever turn down the chance to get promoted.
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Post by SCFC92 on Feb 19, 2022 16:55:56 GMT
Yes they are.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2022 16:58:08 GMT
Yup, let's be real without being too optimistic and without being pessimistic as well .
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Post by Pricey on Feb 19, 2022 16:59:35 GMT
*agrees* Use the remaining games to try and hit the ground running next summer.
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Post by scfcno1fan on Feb 19, 2022 16:59:45 GMT
Be interesting to see what tachyon shows as percentages, but that’s that you’d think now.
We’re just not good enough to put a run together.
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Post by willieeetmiout on Feb 19, 2022 16:59:58 GMT
Lacking quality at the back.
Lacking quality going forward.
Mid table is about right.
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Post by chad on Feb 19, 2022 17:00:45 GMT
They are now I’m afraid. Should have had 6 points last two games but only got 2.
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Post by HarryTheHat on Feb 19, 2022 17:01:56 GMT
Have been for weeks
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Post by tuum on Feb 19, 2022 17:02:07 GMT
A cup run can actually enhance a promotion chasing team, if we keep winning, there might be gametime for those who are not cuptied, so fringe players are ready if needed.. Brentford owner Matthew Benham, a hugely successful professional sports gambler and football club owner, reckons that cups are actually an unhelpful distraction/drain on a league promotion push, which is why Bees have never taken them seriously during his time in charge. He has cited eg Bees playing Chelsea in the FA Cup 3rd Round in 2013 while in League One (drew at home, lost the replay at SB). Before the draw was made, they gained 31 points from 39 in an unbeated 13 game run. But in the six games before and after the initial tie and replay, they only achieved 6 points from 18. That season they finished 3rd, 4 points behind automatic. (And before anyone says "Too small a sample size", I've no doubt he's run the stats for numerous other equivalents, going back years.)
What allowances have been made for the quality (depth) of the squad? If he only has 15 players who can reasonably contribute to the 1st XI then he may have a point. If his squad has good cover in each position then it maybe less of an issue.
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