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Post by werrington on Jun 30, 2019 14:21:21 GMT
Understand completely the principles of free transfers but let’s look at where these signings are coming from, Ageing QPR player, Inconsistent Wigan player who to the best of my knowledge has never been subject to a bid from any club despite being only 25 and having years ahead of him, two players from Barnsley, yes Barnsley. Then there’s the two other “free” signings. Not exactly pulse racing so far is it. Tottenham signed Deli Alli from Milton Keynes, yes Milton Keynes Leeds signed Roofe from Oxford, yes Oxford What’s your point?
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Post by questionable on Jun 30, 2019 14:32:53 GMT
Spurs paid an initial £5m for Alli then loaned him back to them I’ve read, looking back he was represented England from U17 onwards.
Can’t really see your point regarding Roofe as he’s pretty shite.
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Post by tony1234 on Jun 30, 2019 14:35:05 GMT
I do love your ability to throw away ten years of data from forty case studies as "not much"! Fine, but suggest something better - What sort of data or logic is better on which to base a grounded argument if not ten years of data on the type of manager we've appointed, coupled with trends amongst the last 4 or so years of promoted clubs from the Championship? And the fact is Pitriach joined at the same time as Smith.... and is just the latest in perhaps 8 clubs that have achieved excellent things with his sort of experience. Meanwhile, where there is no evidence whatsoever is that Smith was the driving force behind the changes any more than Terry or Pitriach. I'd say the loan of Abraham - won through Terry's connections - was pivotal. Far, far more recent evidence that appointing people with experience of top clubs is a driving force of change in contemporary Championship races. The last point is the best you can hope for and not impossible - but the point im making is you are waiting out for a really long shot to come to fruition if the destination of the transition is promotion, unless you've got some data and logic to suggest why we have appointed someone who somehow different than 39 of the other 40 promotion winning League Two managers down the last decade? I was talking specifically about Villa as far as the evidence goes, but similarly I love your ability to gloss over or scratch around desperately to discredit any example that doesn’t fit your argument. Given that there was a clear change in style after Smith was appointed, he picks the team and tactics, so I’d say that rather suggests a lion’s share of the credit goes to him. What’s the argument for it being more down to Pitriach? Also it’s grossly overstating things to suggest Abraham’s loan was ‘won through Terry’s connections’. Villa had approached him and Terry, who’d actually just left the club before he returned later that season, recommended the club to him. There’s every chance he’d have gone there anyway. .. you moved off the point foresmost: Let's reiterate the central one here - Based on history, played out over thousands of games and ten years, promotion winning League Two managers have a 1 in 40 chance of getting Championship clubs up. If that data is "scratching around", as i've said, happy to synthesise that data with other data and perspecties, but first you need to provide something beyond just your hunch or whim to improve it. Your one example of Smith isn't even related to the point being made. What are you basing your argument on? What are your data and facts and what are your inferences or deductions from them? The main point here: NJ is not qualified, here and now at least, to lead a Championship promotion team based on the best evidence we have. Back to the OP - can free transfers get teams promoted? The best indicators are a) wage bill b) managerial experience - but not the sort NJ has. So, in our case, it is almost certainly "no" in the short term; if he stays longer, its still unlikely. (Its football, so anything is possible, but history tells us the chances of things happening in future). ... and on Villa, as I said, case in point, what's your actual evidence that Smith was primarily responsible for the meaningful and impactful improvements at Villa? Two guys came in and brought experience of winning domestic and international competitions, European players, standards of attaining elite performance at top clubs and rubbing shoulders with the best; as well as a far broader array of contacts. Pitarch came in explicitly to set standards of performance across the whole footballing side of the club - performance, results, recruitment, training. And one guy - Smith - bought experience of getting a chipper Brentford side to punch above their weight in mid table in the Championship. You accredit the successes to the latter. When you have the experience and achievements imbued in the first two, compared to the experience imbued in Smith, it seems an illogical, baffling way to attribute success unless I'm missing something in your argument I just haven't picked up on, or there is some further insight that im missing?. You really seriously think its Smith leading and teaching Pitriach and Terry in that relationship?? What are you basing that on? The notion that Abraham would have gone there without Terry going is groundless guesswork: It removes the reasoning of why Abraham might make such a move, when he could have easily stayed in the Premier League.
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Post by werrington on Jun 30, 2019 14:37:08 GMT
Spurs paid an initial £5m for Alli then loaned him back to them I’ve read, looking back he was represented England from U17 onwards. Can’t really see your point regarding Roofe as he’s pretty shite. They loaned him back for three months as they signed him in January then he was straight into their first team and Roofe shite?....yeah ok I see what I’m up against here You don’t like NJ and you are desperate for him to fail and are finding anything to hit him with
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2019 14:41:31 GMT
And xenophobia technically is a form of racism. I do understand the views here, but perhaps its a tad clumsy and off the cuff, but is it really healthy or fair to hold people to this standard of language though? The context is that: we are divided in Britain at the moment partly at least because many of the working classes feel that their concerns are being treated with disdain. While minority groups have been routinely supported with policies, laws and programmes etc to protect their feeling safe and comfortable, white working class groups are called names, labelled and shunned as racists for raising their own concerns about immigration - and the impacts on wage deflation, as well communities etc. They also see - admittedly on occasion - cases of any other group but them getting funding and help. I live near Birmingham and a residing source of tension here (i am told by older community members) was that Pakistani communities were given preferential treatment in the handing out of council houses some years ago over "locals". That's where we are.... It leads me to think we all need to ease off the extremities of moral positions and measure the vindictiveness of intent behind actions, rather than seizing on sleights as a crime like "racism". There is actually no evidence its a fear or hatred of people of different races that are driving such remarks. Most of the hatred in our society is perpetuated by a handful of nationalist numbskulls on the one hand, and a handful of islamic-driven nutters on the other. They are the problem If we hold one group to account for remarks that could cause offence, then if we don't want to just cause deeper divides, resentment and entrenchment on both "sides", we'd need to be even handed about it - and pick up too on the countless sentiments expressed that the White British are somehow to blame for the life outcomes of others. We are just deepening the sense of victimhood and embitteredness. Better we just relax and save our energies for the deplorable and obvious acts such as making monkey noises at grounds, or attacking people for being in the wrong part of town, and allow people a little wiggle room to be candid. All parties are shite. Brexit is bollocks. The issues lie with British people and outside interference from Russia. And the tone was that of where this country is heading.
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Jun 30, 2019 14:41:53 GMT
As Werrington has pointed out, very few of these free transfers are free because the players are unwanted but because they have allowed their contracts to run down. It’s not ‘talking about foreigners’, it’s the idea that foreign = bad. Only people that managed to draw that conclusion are racist Like your mate you were defending from the thread yesterday? Good, finally, something we can agree on.
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Post by harlequin on Jun 30, 2019 14:43:41 GMT
'half a good year at Luton' Incorrect Two good years all told. Still a gamble? Maybe but not as much as you've made out. Well, i don''t think it was his first year at Luton that landed him the job! So would disagree - it was the 1/2 good year, last year, that was most pivotal and sent him into consideration for Championship jobs. Looking at the 40 managers who helped their teams get promotion from League Two over the past ten years , 2 subsequently won Championship promotions (Howe and Wilder), 1 other (Rowett) a play off place. A cluster have come to occupy jobs in the Championship, but with general low levels of success. The two who got promotions also built their teams over several years. The number who have made the transition - in ten years - from being a League two promotion manager to Championship promotion manager with another club in their first full season is therefore precsisely zero; those doing it with another club is 1 in 40. Ergo sum: No one in their right mind would conclude a League Two promotion manager as being well qualified to lead a Championship promotion team. I'd say choosing a manager - or more broadly, your football management leadership team - without the experiences, qualities, achievements etc that are generally present amongst the successful hierachy of recent promoted Championship clubs (or contenders, who reach the playoffs) is (to put it in the politest way possible) a very big gamble if promotion is your aim. Let's be a little precise though with what we are saying here: NJ is not a gamble, if your aim is to assemble a team that makes the best of free signings and cheaper L1 talent though while cutting costs. Such managers - Keith Hill, Cook, Allen, etc who did it once have often done it again (and sometimes again). He's as low a risk gamble for that task as you could probably get - few having better recent credentials. I think many of us thought he was an appointment for precisely this task, to create the best fighting unit we could with 30m-40m less player assets on our books, having long thought the drivel coming from the PR team was precisely that. Nothing from that has changed has it, other than we've moved on with the restructuring plan? * Cotterill (Notts Co), Still (Dagenham), Hill (Rochdale), Sheridan (Chesterfield), Knill (Bury), Waddock (Wycombe),Westley (Stevenage), Di Canio (Swindon), Turner (Shewsbury), , Steve Evans (Crawley), Gradi/Davis (Crewe), Martin Allen (Gills), Steve Evans (Rotherham), Micky Adams (Vale), Phil Parkinson (Bradford), Chris Wilder (Northampton promotion 2015/16) and Gary Rowett (Derby play offs 2017/18) as the two that have since gone on to be a successful championship manager, denoted by either a promotion or play off place:- others of promoted clubs since 2014/15 are: Paul Cook (Chesterfield), Brian Laws (Scunthorpe), Keith Hill (Rochdale), Graham Alexander (Fleetwood), Mick Mellon (Shrewsbury), Phil Brown (Southend), Michael Appteton (Oxford), Darrell Clarke (Oxford), Neal Ardley (Wimbledon), Paul Cook (Portsmouth), Derek Adams (Plymouth), Darren Ferguson (Doncaster), John Coleman (Accrington), Gareth Ainsworth (Wycombe), Mark Robins (Cov). I really enjoy your posts but I don't agree with this.
The promoted managers from the past ten years come from a vast variety of circumstances though compared to the criteria you’ve set. To apply a strict filter of “promoted manager”, “from league one”, “Consecutive promotion”, “promoted Within 1 year”, “10 year span”, “changed clubs” would leave an extremely small pool anyway. So to say no managers have met this criteria is almost irrelevant, isn't it?
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Jun 30, 2019 14:44:47 GMT
Understand completely the principles of free transfers but let’s look at where these signings are coming from, Ageing QPR player, Inconsistent Wigan player who to the best of my knowledge has never been subject to a bid from any club despite being only 25 and having years ahead of him, two players from Barnsley, yes Barnsley. Then there’s the two other “free” signings. Not exactly pulse racing so far is it. Jordan Cousins is 25. There was plenty of interest in Powell. Barnsley were promoted. What’s your point again?
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Post by zerps on Jun 30, 2019 14:46:11 GMT
Only people that managed to draw that conclusion are racist Like your mate you were defending from the thread yesterday? Good, finally, something we can agree on. No you’ve completely misunderstood again
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Post by Davef on Jun 30, 2019 14:46:58 GMT
I do understand the views here, but perhaps its a tad clumsy and off the cuff, but is it really healthy or fair to hold people to this standard of language though? The context is that: we are divided in Britain at the moment partly at least because many of the working classes feel that their concerns are being treated with disdain. While minority groups have been routinely supported with policies, laws and programmes etc to protect their feeling safe and comfortable, white working class groups are called names, labelled and shunned as racists for raising their own concerns about immigration - and the impacts on wage deflation, as well communities etc. They also see - admittedly on occasion - cases of any other group but them getting funding and help. I live near Birmingham and a residing source of tension here (i am told by older community members) was that Pakistani communities were given preferential treatment in the handing out of council houses some years ago over "locals". That's where we are.... It leads me to think we all need to ease off the extremities of moral positions and measure the vindictiveness of intent behind actions, rather than seizing on sleights as a crime like "racism". There is actually no evidence its a fear or hatred of people of different races that are driving such remarks. Most of the hatred in our society is perpetuated by a handful of nationalist numbskulls on the one hand, and a handful of islamic-driven nutters on the other. They are the problem If we hold one group to account for remarks that could cause offence, then if we don't want to just cause deeper divides, resentment and entrenchment on both "sides", we'd need to be even handed about it - and pick up too on the countless sentiments expressed that the White British are somehow to blame for the life outcomes of others. We are just deepening the sense of victimhood and embitteredness. Better we just relax and save our energies for the deplorable and obvious acts such as making monkey noises at grounds, or attacking people for being in the wrong part of town, and allow people a little wiggle room to be candid. All parties are shite. Brexit is bollocks. The issues lie with British people and outside interference from Russia. And the tone was that of where this country is heading. If you want to talk politics lads, do it on the other board please.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2019 14:47:06 GMT
Understand completely the principles of free transfers but let’s look at where these signings are coming from, Ageing QPR player, Inconsistent Wigan player who to the best of my knowledge has never been subject to a bid from any club despite being only 25 and having years ahead of him, two players from Barnsley, yes Barnsley. Then there’s the two other “free” signings. Not exactly pulse racing so far is it. Tottenham signed Deli Alli from Milton Keynes, yes Milton Keynes Leeds signed Roofe from Oxford, yes Oxford What’s your point? It’s about getting the right ones as it always is. I wanted us to look at Roofe even in the PL. He has the attributes we needed and still need.
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Jun 30, 2019 14:58:39 GMT
I was talking specifically about Villa as far as the evidence goes, but similarly I love your ability to gloss over or scratch around desperately to discredit any example that doesn’t fit your argument. Given that there was a clear change in style after Smith was appointed, he picks the team and tactics, so I’d say that rather suggests a lion’s share of the credit goes to him. What’s the argument for it being more down to Pitriach? Also it’s grossly overstating things to suggest Abraham’s loan was ‘won through Terry’s connections’. Villa had approached him and Terry, who’d actually just left the club before he returned later that season, recommended the club to him. There’s every chance he’d have gone there anyway. .. you moved off the point foresmost: Let's reiterate the central one here - Based on history, played out over thousands of games and ten years, promotion winning League Two managers have a 1 in 40 chance of getting Championship clubs up. If that data is "scratching around", as i've said, happy to synthesise that data with other data and perspecties, but first you need to provide something beyond just your hunch or whim to improve it. Your one example of Smith isn't even related to the point being made. What are you basing your argument on? What are your data and facts and what are your inferences or deductions from them? The main point here: NJ is not qualified, here and now at least, to lead a Championship promotion team based on the best evidence we have. Back to the OP - can free transfers get teams promoted? The best indicators are a) wage bill b) managerial experience - but not the sort NJ has. So, in our case, it is almost certainly "no" in the short term; if he stays longer, its still unlikely. (Its football, so anything is possible, but history tells us the chances of things happening in future). ... and on Villa, as I said, case in point, what's your actual evidence that Smith was primarily responsible for the meaningful and impactful improvements at Villa? Two guys came in and brought experience of winning domestic and international competitions, European players, standards of attaining elite performance at top clubs and rubbing shoulders with the best; as well as a far broader array of contacts. Pitarch came in explicitly to set standards of performance across the whole footballing side of the club - performance, results, recruitment, training. And one guy - Smith - bought experience of getting a chipper Brentford side to punch above their weight in mid table in the Championship. You accredit the successes to the latter. When you have the experience and achievements imbued in the first two, compared to the experience imbued in Smith, it seems an illogical, baffling way to attribute success unless I'm missing something in your argument I just haven't picked up on, or there is some further insight that im missing?. You really seriously think its Smith leading and teaching Pitriach and Terry in that relationship?? What are you basing that on? The notion that Abraham would have gone there without Terry going is groundless guesswork: It removes the reasoning of why Abraham might make such a move, when he could have easily stayed in the Premier League. Christ, a whole host of straw men there. Let’s see... 1) As harlequin pointed out, your supposed ‘1 in 40’ working ignored completely the varying circumstances involved in the appointments of all those managers and what they inherited. Again, you’ve also tried to divorce Jones’ L2 and L1 achievements, when it was the whole package that got him appointed. 2) There are numerous examples suggesting that wage bill and experience aren’t essential. They can give you an advantage, sure, but there’s been enough teams without either to suggest you can do absolutely fine without them in this unpredictable league. 3) Smith has a damn sight more managerial and coaching experience than Terry so yes, I do think Terry is learning from him. I suspect Terry might say the same. Again, the playing style change to one more like the one used at Smith’s other club’s suggests his hand is the one on the wheel. I’m sure it’s a team effort and they’ve all played their part, but the snobbery around Smith just because he hasn’t been involved at the top level and the assumption he’s being babysat is silly and insulting. 4) It doesn’t at all remove the reasoning of why Abraham might make such a move - the move made perfect sense with or without Terry. His stock had taken a hit after a poor Premier League season with Swansea and a loan switch to a big club in the Championship was an opportunity to rebuild his name and confidence.
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Post by tony1234 on Jun 30, 2019 15:22:00 GMT
Well, i don''t think it was his first year at Luton that landed him the job! So would disagree - it was the 1/2 good year, last year, that was most pivotal and sent him into consideration for Championship jobs. Looking at the 40 managers who helped their teams get promotion from League Two over the past ten years , 2 subsequently won Championship promotions (Howe and Wilder), 1 other (Rowett) a play off place. A cluster have come to occupy jobs in the Championship, but with general low levels of success. The two who got promotions also built their teams over several years. The number who have made the transition - in ten years - from being a League two promotion manager to Championship promotion manager with another club in their first full season is therefore precsisely zero; those doing it with another club is 1 in 40. Ergo sum: No one in their right mind would conclude a League Two promotion manager as being well qualified to lead a Championship promotion team. I'd say choosing a manager - or more broadly, your football management leadership team - without the experiences, qualities, achievements etc that are generally present amongst the successful hierachy of recent promoted Championship clubs (or contenders, who reach the playoffs) is (to put it in the politest way possible) a very big gamble if promotion is your aim. Let's be a little precise though with what we are saying here: NJ is not a gamble, if your aim is to assemble a team that makes the best of free signings and cheaper L1 talent though while cutting costs. Such managers - Keith Hill, Cook, Allen, etc who did it once have often done it again (and sometimes again). He's as low a risk gamble for that task as you could probably get - few having better recent credentials. I think many of us thought he was an appointment for precisely this task, to create the best fighting unit we could with 30m-40m less player assets on our books, having long thought the drivel coming from the PR team was precisely that. Nothing from that has changed has it, other than we've moved on with the restructuring plan? * Cotterill (Notts Co), Still (Dagenham), Hill (Rochdale), Sheridan (Chesterfield), Knill (Bury), Waddock (Wycombe),Westley (Stevenage), Di Canio (Swindon), Turner (Shewsbury), , Steve Evans (Crawley), Gradi/Davis (Crewe), Martin Allen (Gills), Steve Evans (Rotherham), Micky Adams (Vale), Phil Parkinson (Bradford), Chris Wilder (Northampton promotion 2015/16) and Gary Rowett (Derby play offs 2017/18) as the two that have since gone on to be a successful championship manager, denoted by either a promotion or play off place:- others of promoted clubs since 2014/15 are: Paul Cook (Chesterfield), Brian Laws (Scunthorpe), Keith Hill (Rochdale), Graham Alexander (Fleetwood), Mick Mellon (Shrewsbury), Phil Brown (Southend), Michael Appteton (Oxford), Darrell Clarke (Oxford), Neal Ardley (Wimbledon), Paul Cook (Portsmouth), Derek Adams (Plymouth), Darren Ferguson (Doncaster), John Coleman (Accrington), Gareth Ainsworth (Wycombe), Mark Robins (Cov). I really enjoy your posts but I don't agree with this.
The promoted managers from the past ten years come from a vast variety of circumstances though compared to the criteria you’ve set. To apply a strict filter of “promoted manager”, “from league one”, “Consecutive promotion”, “promoted Within 1 year”, “10 year span”, “changed clubs” would leave an extremely small pool anyway. So to say no managers have met this criteria is almost irrelevant, isn't it?
I do actually agree with you in one way :-) I think what i've given is one perspective - Its like answering the (simpler) question of "who is going to win this race?" with an answer that says, "well, if check the personal best times of the runners and you'll find that history tells us those who are not in the top few personal bests amongst the runners have no chance". And you could come back and (rightly) say, "ah ha - but there are other things to look at. For instance, current form, recent fitness levels, whether they have a great coach, they fact that they might not be the fastest but always perfom on the big stage!." And I completely agree with you on that (and i'd never ever claim to be stating anything about football from a position of certainty!!!) But i guess, the question your very valid points raise is "well, what are those other factors then that make a successful coach that we can believe in... that go beyond us just 'wishing it to be true'?" (Its inexact as a science, but of all those countless possible circumstances you note, two quite specific ones stand out to me as being really helpful: 1) elite club experience amongst the footballing leadership team - not just manager, but DOF too, 2) and/or - to a lesser extent nowadays - the capacity to learn from their long term Championship experience, so people who learn the league inside out, like Warnock and Bruce, or experience with incrementally improving their own team (like Howe and Wilder). When i try and look for clues about past managers - precisely those you allude to - I see lots in NJ that makes me believe we've got a coach who will - if he gets the time (and that's a fairly reasonable sized 'if') - provide a solid, hard working team that works together. But does he (or his colleagues in the leadership team) have that extra know-how that seem to separate the "winners" in the Championship, from the Alex Neil's, Gary Johnson's et als. There are skills - clearly - in getting a lower league team to perform and NJ has them. And this isn't personal about NJ, but I just don't see those skills having worked very often at Championship level. Would be ever so delighted to be wrong! So I am not in any sense saying you are not 100% right to challenge! So, I'd personally believe the past is never 'irrelevant', but agree fully there could very well be as yet unknown qualities about a successful manager that NJ might demonstrate to us over the next 1-2 yearsl!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2019 15:43:34 GMT
I really enjoy your posts but I don't agree with this.
The promoted managers from the past ten years come from a vast variety of circumstances though compared to the criteria you’ve set. To apply a strict filter of “promoted manager”, “from league one”, “Consecutive promotion”, “promoted Within 1 year”, “10 year span”, “changed clubs” would leave an extremely small pool anyway. So to say no managers have met this criteria is almost irrelevant, isn't it?
I do actually agree with you in one way :-) I think what i've given is one perspective - Its like answering the (simpler) question of "who is going to win this race?" with an answer that says, "well, if check the personal best times of the runners and you'll find that history tells us those who are not in the top few personal bests amongst the runners have no chance". And you could come back and (rightly) say, "ah ha - but there are other things to look at. For instance, current form, recent fitness levels, whether they have a great coach, they fact that they might not be the fastest but always perfom on the big stage!." And I completely agree with you on that (and i'd never ever claim to be stating anything about football from a position of certainty!!!) But i guess, the question your very valid points raise is "well, what are those other factors then that make a successful coach that we can believe in... that go beyond us just 'wishing it to be true'?" (Its inexact as a science, but of all those countless possible circumstances you note, two quite specific ones stand out to me as being really helpful: 1) elite club experience amongst the footballing leadership team - not just manager, but DOF too, 2) and/or - to a lesser extent nowadays - the capacity to learn from their long term Championship experience, so people who learn the league inside out, like Warnock and Bruce, or experience with incrementally improving their own team (like Howe and Wilder). When i try and look for clues about past managers - precisely those you allude to - I see lots in NJ that makes me believe we've got a coach who will - if he gets the time (and that's a fairly reasonable sized 'if') - provide a solid, hard working team that works together. But does he (or his colleagues in the leadership team) have that extra know-how that seem to separate the "winners" in the Championship, from the Alex Neil's, Gary Johnson's et als. There are skills - clearly - in getting a lower league team to perform and NJ has them. And this isn't personal about NJ, but I just don't see those skills having worked very often at Championship level. Would be ever so delighted to be wrong! So I am not in any sense saying you are not 100% right to challenge! So, I'd personally believe the past is never 'irrelevant', but agree fully there could very well be as yet unknown qualities about a successful manager that NJ might demonstrate to us over the next 1-2 yearsl! This is all very well thought out and reasoned from differing perspectives That said, why do I still get the uncomfortable feeling we have a snake oil salesman as a manager GD
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Post by lordb on Jun 30, 2019 15:47:38 GMT
Understand completely the principles of free transfers but let’s look at where these signings are coming from, Ageing QPR player, Inconsistent Wigan player who to the best of my knowledge has never been subject to a bid from any club despite being only 25 and having years ahead of him, two players from Barnsley, yes Barnsley. Then there’s the two other “free” signings. Not exactly pulse racing so far is it. Since when is 25'aging'?
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Post by harlequin on Jun 30, 2019 15:47:43 GMT
I really enjoy your posts but I don't agree with this.
The promoted managers from the past ten years come from a vast variety of circumstances though compared to the criteria you’ve set. To apply a strict filter of “promoted manager”, “from league one”, “Consecutive promotion”, “promoted Within 1 year”, “10 year span”, “changed clubs” would leave an extremely small pool anyway. So to say no managers have met this criteria is almost irrelevant, isn't it?
I do actually agree with you in one way :-) I think what i've given is one perspective - Its like answering the (simpler) question of "who is going to win this race?" with an answer that says, "well, if check the personal best times of the runners and you'll find that history tells us those who are not in the top few personal bests amongst the runners have no chance". And you could come back and (rightly) say, "ah ha - but there are other things to look at. For instance, current form, recent fitness levels, whether they have a great coach, they fact that they might not be the fastest but always perfom on the big stage!." And I completely agree with you on that (and i'd never ever claim to be stating anything about football from a position of certainty!!!) But i guess, the question your very valid points raise is "well, what are those other factors then that make a successful coach that we can believe in... that go beyond us just 'wishing it to be true'?" (Its inexact as a science, but of all those countless possible circumstances you note, two quite specific ones stand out to me as being really helpful: 1) elite club experience amongst the footballing leadership team - not just manager, but DOF too, 2) and/or - to a lesser extent nowadays - the capacity to learn from their long term Championship experience, so people who learn the league inside out, like Warnock and Bruce, or experience with incrementally improving their own team (like Howe and Wilder). When i try and look for clues about past managers - precisely those you allude to - I see lots in NJ that makes me believe we've got a coach who will - if he gets the time (and that's a fairly reasonable sized 'if') - provide a solid, hard working team that works together. But does he (or his colleagues in the leadership team) have that extra know-how that seem to separate the "winners" in the Championship, from the Alex Neil's, Gary Johnson's et als. There are skills - clearly - in getting a lower league team to perform and NJ has them. And this isn't personal about NJ, but I just don't see those skills having worked very often at Championship level. Would be ever so delighted to be wrong! So I am not in any sense saying you are not 100% right to challenge! So, I'd personally believe the past is never 'irrelevant', but agree fully there could very well be as yet unknown qualities about a successful manager that NJ might demonstrate to us over the next 1-2 yearsl! Fair enough.
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Post by tony1234 on Jun 30, 2019 15:56:48 GMT
.. you moved off the point foresmost: Let's reiterate the central one here - Based on history, played out over thousands of games and ten years, promotion winning League Two managers have a 1 in 40 chance of getting Championship clubs up. If that data is "scratching around", as i've said, happy to synthesise that data with other data and perspecties, but first you need to provide something beyond just your hunch or whim to improve it. Your one example of Smith isn't even related to the point being made. What are you basing your argument on? What are your data and facts and what are your inferences or deductions from them? The main point here: NJ is not qualified, here and now at least, to lead a Championship promotion team based on the best evidence we have. Back to the OP - can free transfers get teams promoted? The best indicators are a) wage bill b) managerial experience - but not the sort NJ has. So, in our case, it is almost certainly "no" in the short term; if he stays longer, its still unlikely. (Its football, so anything is possible, but history tells us the chances of things happening in future). ... and on Villa, as I said, case in point, what's your actual evidence that Smith was primarily responsible for the meaningful and impactful improvements at Villa? Two guys came in and brought experience of winning domestic and international competitions, European players, standards of attaining elite performance at top clubs and rubbing shoulders with the best; as well as a far broader array of contacts. Pitarch came in explicitly to set standards of performance across the whole footballing side of the club - performance, results, recruitment, training. And one guy - Smith - bought experience of getting a chipper Brentford side to punch above their weight in mid table in the Championship. You accredit the successes to the latter. When you have the experience and achievements imbued in the first two, compared to the experience imbued in Smith, it seems an illogical, baffling way to attribute success unless I'm missing something in your argument I just haven't picked up on, or there is some further insight that im missing?. You really seriously think its Smith leading and teaching Pitriach and Terry in that relationship?? What are you basing that on? The notion that Abraham would have gone there without Terry going is groundless guesswork: It removes the reasoning of why Abraham might make such a move, when he could have easily stayed in the Premier League. Christ, a whole host of straw men there. Let’s see... 1) As harlequin pointed out, your supposed ‘1 in 40’ working ignored completely the varying circumstances involved in the appointments of all those managers and what they inherited. Again, you’ve also tried to divorce Jones’ L2 and L1 achievements, when it was the whole package that got him appointed. 2) There are numerous examples suggesting that wage bill and experience aren’t essential. They can give you an advantage, sure, but there’s been enough teams without either to suggest you can do absolutely fine without them in this unpredictable league. 3) Smith has a damn sight more managerial and coaching experience than Terry so yes, I do think Terry is learning from him. I suspect Terry might say the same. Again, the playing style change to one more like the one used at Smith’s other club’s suggests his hand is the one on the wheel. I’m sure it’s a team effort and they’ve all played their part, but the snobbery around Smith just because he hasn’t been involved at the top level and the assumption he’s being babysat is silly and insulting. 4) It doesn’t at all remove the reasoning of why Abraham might make such a move - the move made perfect sense with or without Terry. His stock had taken a hit after a poor Premier League season with Swansea and a loan switch to a big club in the Championship was an opportunity to rebuild his name and confidence. 1. No it doesn't ignore it, it subsumes it! Yes, there are a spectrum of circumstances. And accounting for them, whatever they may be, we see the outcome is 1 in 40 that go on to lead a Championship promotion team..... (And, I have not tried to divorce NJ's achievements. I've said that noone in their right mind would give credibility to his L2 achievements when appointing a Championship manager to lead a promotion charge, because are are practically next to useless as an indicator of Championship success - which was in response to Lordb's point that it was two years of attainment that got him the job. I am not sure L1 achievements are any much of a stronger indicator thinking about it.) 2. (My turn to use the word "Christ"): correlation between league position and wage bill = 0.9. Find anything that is remotely as important. (Look, its football, and Wigan can beat Man City. So the best you can do is say, "what leads to more success and how often, or how strongly is it a predictor". Yes, there are anecdotes and outliers. But noone plans to win through chance. They build the foundations, capabilities and attributes to enhance their chances of being successful - and minimise the role of luck, secondary factors and unforseen events- which inevitably play a role.) 3. Two had shed loads of winning experiences at top clubs, that are increasingly looking like ingredients for success at many Championship clubs - so its not just the evidence of "Villa" we are looking at here, but the context of Norwich, NU, Wolves, Boro, Leeds, Derby, Huddersfield, Wolves.... Smith is a good manager - noone is being snobbish about him. But having the ability to get a club to make a step change in its performance to be a top performing club in a strong, highly competitive league (perhaps the 6-7th best in Europe) means you need the knowledge of how to do it. I'm sure Smith did well. I'm also pretty dubious that without the DOF and Terry, Villa would have gone up. It can piss you off as much or as little as you'd like to let it about Smith, but better than that, offer an argument on why his knowledge was more pivotal that the experience of European competition winners - rather than a tantrum. It aint that important. 4. It makes a whole lot more of a logical, plausible story if the proposition to Abraham had been "you've had a bad time at Swansea.... time to get lots of games and build your confidence back up.... " and Terry had played a role in the support. Having family around him was cited as a factor; and so, with this situation, the familiar face of Terry to coach and mentor surely would have also made it preferable to other options he had, like Bordeaux. Abraham mentioned such sentiments himself - and the feeling of being wanted and being in a "family" - as the reason he stayed there in January, so they were clearly important considerations to him.
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Post by wherty on Jun 30, 2019 16:04:36 GMT
I mean into the Premier league ? Id like to think so and there is evidence to support this BUT if you want that bit of real quality and that extra edge inevitably, you either retain it or, have to pay for it. I'm understanding of, and happy with the change of approach but, remain convinced we need a couple of marquee signings to 'seal the deal' Also Far too much deadwood remains around the place, ranging from players who need to leave to pursue England careers (Supposedly - why should it make any fucking difference anyway? ) An individual who should've be sacked, those who simply dont want to play for us plus , the simple mercenary greedy bastards of modern day football down to - those who we paid big bucks for (and continue to do so) whom, would not get into my local pub team (Wimmer) I sincerely hope for a successful season for Stoke City I really do but - I cant help feeling we've just built a slightly better and more committed championship side in truth We really need to get out of this league pronto - LAST SEASON WAS OUR BEST CHANCE we really now are on plan B and we wont have a plan C thoughts ? You answered your own question in the first paragraph.
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Jun 30, 2019 16:11:32 GMT
Like your mate you were defending from the thread yesterday? Good, finally, something we can agree on. No you’ve completely misunderstood again Yeah? How so?
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Post by zerps on Jun 30, 2019 16:14:26 GMT
No you’ve completely misunderstood again Yeah? How so? Never mind
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Jun 30, 2019 16:20:07 GMT
Christ, a whole host of straw men there. Let’s see... 1) As harlequin pointed out, your supposed ‘1 in 40’ working ignored completely the varying circumstances involved in the appointments of all those managers and what they inherited. Again, you’ve also tried to divorce Jones’ L2 and L1 achievements, when it was the whole package that got him appointed. 2) There are numerous examples suggesting that wage bill and experience aren’t essential. They can give you an advantage, sure, but there’s been enough teams without either to suggest you can do absolutely fine without them in this unpredictable league. 3) Smith has a damn sight more managerial and coaching experience than Terry so yes, I do think Terry is learning from him. I suspect Terry might say the same. Again, the playing style change to one more like the one used at Smith’s other club’s suggests his hand is the one on the wheel. I’m sure it’s a team effort and they’ve all played their part, but the snobbery around Smith just because he hasn’t been involved at the top level and the assumption he’s being babysat is silly and insulting. 4) It doesn’t at all remove the reasoning of why Abraham might make such a move - the move made perfect sense with or without Terry. His stock had taken a hit after a poor Premier League season with Swansea and a loan switch to a big club in the Championship was an opportunity to rebuild his name and confidence. 1. No it doesn't ignore it, it subsumes it! Yes, there are a spectrum of circumstances. And accounting for them, whatever they may be, we see the outcome is 1 in 40 that go on to lead a Championship promotion team..... (And, I have not tried to divorce NJ's achievements. I've said that noone in their right mind would give credibility to his L2 achievements when appointing a Championship manager to lead a promotion charge, because are are practically next to useless as an indicator of Championship success - which was in response to Lordb's point that it was two years of attainment that got him the job. I am not sure L1 achievements are any much of a stronger indicator thinking about it.) 2. (My turn to use the word "Christ"): correlation between league position and wage bill = 0.9. Find anything that is remotely as important. (Look, its football, and Wigan can beat Man City. So the best you can do is say, "what leads to more success and how often, or how strongly is it a predictor". Yes, there are anecdotes and outliers. But noone plans to win through chance. They build the foundations, capabilities and attributes to enhance their chances of being successful - and minimise the role of luck, secondary factors and unforseen events- which inevitably play a role.) 3. Two had shed loads of winning experiences at top clubs, that are increasingly looking like ingredients for success at many Championship clubs - so its not just the evidence of "Villa" we are looking at here, but the context of Norwich, NU, Wolves, Boro, Leeds, Derby, Huddersfield, Wolves.... Smith is a good manager - noone is being snobbish about him. But having the ability to get a club to make a step change in its performance to be a top performing club in a strong, highly competitive league (perhaps the 6-7th best in Europe) means you need the knowledge of how to do it. I'm sure Smith did well. I'm also pretty dubious that without the DOF and Terry, Villa would have gone up. It can piss you off as much or as little as you'd like to let it about Smith, but better than that, offer an argument on why his knowledge was more pivotal that the experience of European competition winners - rather than a tantrum. It aint that important. 4. It makes a whole lot more of a logical, plausible story if the proposition to Abraham had been "you've had a bad time at Swansea.... time to get lots of games and build your confidence back up.... " and Terry had played a role in the support. Having family around him was cited as a factor; and so, with this situation, the familiar face of Terry to coach and mentor surely would have also made it preferable to other options he had, like Bordeaux. Abraham mentioned such sentiments himself - and the feeling of being wanted and being in a "family" - as the reason he stayed there in January, so they were clearly important considerations to him. 1) If there's a vast spectrum of circumstances than it renders it pretty useless as a metric doesn't it? And again, he was doing well in League 1 as well as having done well in League 2. It's the complete picture yet one you're trying to wedge for reasons I'm not quite sure about. 2) For all your gimmick on here is to be Captain Data, football and the Championship in particular just don't conform to the rules you want them to. There are too many examples to the contrary for them to be swept under the carpet as mere 'outliers', and too many occasions where the teams with the biggest wage bills have failed miserably as well. Again, circumstances differ so much among the examples for it to be impossible to present a blanket formula. 3) You yourself have provided less evidence than me on the Villa front other than again making a lazy blanket assumption that being at a big club in any capacity somehow ingrains 'winning' into you. Terry being a top player at a top club doesn't automatically mean anything when it comes to coaching (as the presence of people like Di Canio in your little list of failures attests to). Terry isn't a 'mentor' to Smith - Smith has more experience of management than he does. If anyone's doing the learning, it's Terry. 4) Terry wasn't a coach at the time Abraham first went there. Terry spoke well of the club, no more, no less. That isn't the same thing as 'Terry's connections secured the Abraham loan'.
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Jun 30, 2019 16:20:25 GMT
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Post by zerps on Jun 30, 2019 16:28:25 GMT
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Post by march4 on Jun 30, 2019 16:43:37 GMT
Of course it can be done.
It is the quality of player and manager that matters more than the transfer fee.
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Post by premiershipteamfor10years on Jun 30, 2019 18:47:50 GMT
Our fall from grace has been truly staggering.
From an established respected premier league club buying players like Shaqiri and Marko we are now certainly shopping in Lidl.
My head tells me we won’t be rejoining the big boys any time soon.
I hope I am proved wrong but I would have gone down the Wolves route to promotion with a foreign coach with loads of contacts overseas.
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Post by zerps on Jun 30, 2019 18:55:35 GMT
Our fall from grace has been truly staggering. From an established respected premier league club buying players like Shaqiri and Marko we are now certainly shopping in Lidl. My head tells me we won’t be rejoining the big boys any time soon. I hope I am proved wrong but I would have gone down the Wolves route to promotion with a foreign coach with loads of contacts overseas. The wolves route is literally shit or bust
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Post by tony1234 on Jun 30, 2019 19:29:42 GMT
1. No it doesn't ignore it, it subsumes it! Yes, there are a spectrum of circumstances. And accounting for them, whatever they may be, we see the outcome is 1 in 40 that go on to lead a Championship promotion team..... (And, I have not tried to divorce NJ's achievements. I've said that noone in their right mind would give credibility to his L2 achievements when appointing a Championship manager to lead a promotion charge, because are are practically next to useless as an indicator of Championship success - which was in response to Lordb's point that it was two years of attainment that got him the job. I am not sure L1 achievements are any much of a stronger indicator thinking about it.) 2. (My turn to use the word "Christ"): correlation between league position and wage bill = 0.9. Find anything that is remotely as important. (Look, its football, and Wigan can beat Man City. So the best you can do is say, "what leads to more success and how often, or how strongly is it a predictor". Yes, there are anecdotes and outliers. But noone plans to win through chance. They build the foundations, capabilities and attributes to enhance their chances of being successful - and minimise the role of luck, secondary factors and unforseen events- which inevitably play a role.) 3. Two had shed loads of winning experiences at top clubs, that are increasingly looking like ingredients for success at many Championship clubs - so its not just the evidence of "Villa" we are looking at here, but the context of Norwich, NU, Wolves, Boro, Leeds, Derby, Huddersfield, Wolves.... Smith is a good manager - noone is being snobbish about him. But having the ability to get a club to make a step change in its performance to be a top performing club in a strong, highly competitive league (perhaps the 6-7th best in Europe) means you need the knowledge of how to do it. I'm sure Smith did well. I'm also pretty dubious that without the DOF and Terry, Villa would have gone up. It can piss you off as much or as little as you'd like to let it about Smith, but better than that, offer an argument on why his knowledge was more pivotal that the experience of European competition winners - rather than a tantrum. It aint that important. 4. It makes a whole lot more of a logical, plausible story if the proposition to Abraham had been "you've had a bad time at Swansea.... time to get lots of games and build your confidence back up.... " and Terry had played a role in the support. Having family around him was cited as a factor; and so, with this situation, the familiar face of Terry to coach and mentor surely would have also made it preferable to other options he had, like Bordeaux. Abraham mentioned such sentiments himself - and the feeling of being wanted and being in a "family" - as the reason he stayed there in January, so they were clearly important considerations to him. 1) If there's a vast spectrum of circumstances than it renders it pretty useless as a metric doesn't it? And again, he was doing well in League 1 as well as having done well in League 2. It's the complete picture yet one you're trying to wedge for reasons I'm not quite sure about. 2) For all your gimmick on here is to be Captain Data, football and the Championship in particular just don't conform to the rules you want them to. There are too many examples to the contrary for them to be swept under the carpet as mere 'outliers', and too many occasions where the teams with the biggest wage bills have failed miserably as well. Again, circumstances differ so much among the examples for it to be impossible to present a blanket formula. 3) You yourself have provided less evidence than me on the Villa front other than again making a lazy blanket assumption that being at a big club in any capacity somehow ingrains 'winning' into you. Terry being a top player at a top club doesn't automatically mean anything when it comes to coaching (as the presence of people like Di Canio in your little list of failures attests to). Terry isn't a 'mentor' to Smith - Smith has more experience of management than he does. If anyone's doing the learning, it's Terry. 4) Terry wasn't a coach at the time Abraham first went there. Terry spoke well of the club, no more, no less. That isn't the same thing as 'Terry's connections secured the Abraham loan'. 1. And how many times has your "complete package" of lower league experience - without higher level experience - got teams out of the Championship in the last X years? In other words, whatever you call NJ's package of experience, where is the evidence and argument that it offers any value to us in a promotion quest? 2. Ha! You have a tendancy to misinterpret or overstate the argument and argue against yourself, then criticse the person making the point you've constructed: So, to repeat, I've not said "rules" exist. I've noted patterns, or repeated cases of things that lead to clubs doing better, or worse, or succeeding or not, and suggested them as relevant indicators of our future. Correct me if Im wrong, but your point seems to be "its all too random to predict" and to dismiss any past patterns as offering any relevant clues for us going forward?. However, its patently untrue that football is so random, as the extremely strong wage-league position relationship attests. The extent teams fall outside that relationship is not particularly any more random in the Championship than the PL in reality - its just that some PL clubs have accumulated vast weath. So where's that view coming from?. www.open.edu/openlearn/money-management/management/business-studies/stefan-szymanski-on-the-business-football 3. I've noted some repeated instances in recent years, no more or less. Of course, on one highly pedantic level you are right that not everyone who rubs with a big club becomes great coach - but again that's not an argument I've made, but one you have. The point of what I thought we are trying to think about - as I understand it - is what attributes, experiences, knowledge, credentials, qualities etc etc of coaches/managers/management teams are behind the clubs that are getting to the top of the Championship? And does NJ have them? I've suggested coaching experience in elite environments is one (of undoubtedly a number of) helpful attributes and NJ hasn't got it. Another is that he is a long term Championship manager (like Warnock, Bruce) who show a capacity for learning - though both have also managed at higher levels. Another is that he has built a team over several years and managed its progresion (Howe and Wilder), which he therefore knows inside out; which NJ hasn't done either. (It simply begs the question of the relevance of his experience for the job in hand - which takes us back to point #1. What is NJ bringing that is of value to our specific challenge in hand?) Of course, as well as that, you'd need intellect, interpersonal skills, self-awareness etc. 4. What on earth are you talking about? Terry joined in July 17 and Abraham 13 months later. Simple point with Terry = he is senior figure with experience; knowledge and huge gravitas and with a clear connection to a desirable loan option at his previous club. That he offers his new club value in trying to secure him really isn't that controversial, surely? (Especially when said loan player later cited said senior player as a reason to stay at the club on loan when he could leave it, showing that he valued said senior player enough to influence his career choices?). And especially when we see the same happen with Lampard at Derby with several players.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2019 19:34:04 GMT
If any supporters should have learned by now that money doesn't always equal quality then youd think it would be ours Correct, Bojan only cost 5K.
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Post by medwaypotter on Jun 30, 2019 19:58:22 GMT
Oh yes, the poster used that other racist comment, tippy tappy. Jeez Do you think the context was complimentary? It wasn’t racist but it was xenophobic, ignorant nonsense. So to be non racist you have to be complimentary ? bollocks
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Post by StaffordPotter on Jun 30, 2019 20:29:10 GMT
Personally I would say no, but if Nathan Jones gets the balance right he can do it on a budget. Stranger things have happened in football, he just needs to build a squad that suit his system instead of getting in any old player for the sake of it.
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