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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 10:50:06 GMT
''Threats and rhetoric are what will get this sorted'' What have you got in mind...? Boris Johnson as Foreign secretary ...? Theresa May in charge of defence...? Clegg in charge of the Salvation Army...? I can't see Putin being bullied into backing down...Can you..? Read the thread! So yes I can but only if a serious threat is shown. The EU can't offer one, they have the gas, we need the gas. It won't happen. America can throw trade sanctions around but so what? But an American aircraft group in the Black Sea? That'd worry owd plastic face. Come now Bayern, you have had your little joke
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 10:53:25 GMT
Crimean m.p.'s have formally declared that It will join the Russian federation , with a referendum being held on 16 March ......no surprises there then ?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 11:07:24 GMT
We all know there are a lot of communist sympathisers in the hi command at Brussels HQ Baroness Ashton has quite a few skeletons in her wardrobe from the 70's.....remember claims of her and her boyfriend excepting Russian gold to support their communist party? Suddenly her name pops up again involving phone tapping and her coming out with very brave statements over the Ukraine shootings Stinks
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 11:15:14 GMT
Crimean m.p.'s have formally declared that It will join the Russian federation , with a referendum being held on 16 March ......no surprises there then ? Stupidly predictable. It will be interesting to see if the "defence forces" melt away, after the referendum (which will surely pass?). Will also be interesting to see if Putin is willing to let the remainder of Ukraine go its own way (I'd be amazed)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 19:20:32 GMT
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Post by harryburrows on Mar 6, 2014 19:42:24 GMT
Exactly the hypocracy I've been banging on about , well said the guardian
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 6, 2014 19:55:28 GMT
Read the thread! So yes I can but only if a serious threat is shown. The EU can't offer one, they have the gas, we need the gas. It won't happen. America can throw trade sanctions around but so what? But an American aircraft group in the Black Sea? That'd worry owd plastic face. Come now Bayern, you have had your little joke Who's joking? Diplomacy with economic threats is working a treat.........
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2014 20:06:04 GMT
Come now Bayern, you have had your little joke Who's joking? Diplomacy with economic threats is working a treat......... This discussion seems to have run it's course ......
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 6, 2014 20:08:23 GMT
Who's joking? Diplomacy with economic threats is working a treat......... This discussion seems to have run it's course ...... Why? We're still being held ransom by Russia with no solution that suits the Ukrainian people on the horizon.
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Post by partickpotter on Mar 7, 2014 7:42:23 GMT
Tricky situation...
On the face of it Crimea becoming part of Russia makes a lot of sense but what happens next? Almost certainly the whole of the Eastern part of the Ukraine secedes, because that is also majority occupied by Russians.
After that? Russia takes a bite out of Estonia? Brings South Ossetia formally into Russian territory. Maybe they fancy expanding the exclave of Kaliningrad by eating into Poland and Lithuania? Or settling some outstanding territorial issues with Finland - the divided island of Koiluoto in the Baltic Sea possibly.
All this nationalist expansion stuff starts with something that seems reasonable but tends to lead to increasingly dubious actions. Remember how this sequence ended; Austrian anschluss, the Sudetenland, the Danzig corridor...
You can see why the former Warsaw Pact countries are feeling very worried today. History resonates!
This is a worrying time. Let's hope our politicians have learned some history lessons and keep a lid on this.
Note to Angela Merkel; the Russian's cutting off your gas isn't your biggest problem although it may be your most immediate concern.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 7:57:10 GMT
All one big world control plan by the yanks Europe and Russia working in tandem behind the scenes
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 8:05:04 GMT
Tricky situation... On the face of it Crimea becoming part of Russia makes a lot of sense but what happens next? Almost certainly the whole of the Eastern part of the Ukraine secedes, because that is also majority occupied by Russians. After that? Russia takes a bite out of Estonia? Brings South Ossetia formally into Russian territory. Maybe they fancy expanding the exclave of Kaliningrad by eating into Poland and Lithuania? All this nationalist expansion stuff starts with something that seems reasonable but tends to lead to increasingly dubious actions. Remember how this sequence ended; Austrian anschluss, the Sudetenland, the Danzig corridor... You can see why the former Warsaw Pact countries are feeling very worried today. History resonates! This is a worrying time. Let's hope our politicians have learned some history lessons and keep a lid on this. Note to Angela Merkel; the Russian's cutting off your gas isn't your biggest problem although it may be your most immediate concern. Times have changed, I think. Expansion is only going to be viable - for the aggressor - via the back door route Vlad is using in the Ukraine. Break away regions and referendums; next stop Eastern Ukraine? As impolite as Vlad is being, he still needs the veil of legitimacy to carry it off. So I would be extremely surprised if Vlad were to absorb a country - or region of a country - without it having a common border with the Russian Federation and without it voting to ask to join. That's not to say Mother Russia won't help its people in such areas, achieve the necessary conditions to bring such a vote about. Behind the scenes - like Local Defence Forces - obviously. But I don't think Vlad will be in an unseemly rush ... Better to let this one blow over, first. If the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine will support joining the Russian Federation, then I would say the course from here is inevitable and merely a question of how long it takes. In the meantime, Russia - or more likely, individual Russians - will need to absorb some of the limited pain dished out by NATO / EU.
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Post by partickpotter on Mar 7, 2014 8:18:54 GMT
Tricky situation... On the face of it Crimea becoming part of Russia makes a lot of sense but what happens next? Almost certainly the whole of the Eastern part of the Ukraine secedes, because that is also majority occupied by Russians. After that? Russia takes a bite out of Estonia? Brings South Ossetia formally into Russian territory. Maybe they fancy expanding the exclave of Kaliningrad by eating into Poland and Lithuania? All this nationalist expansion stuff starts with something that seems reasonable but tends to lead to increasingly dubious actions. Remember how this sequence ended; Austrian anschluss, the Sudetenland, the Danzig corridor... You can see why the former Warsaw Pact countries are feeling very worried today. History resonates! This is a worrying time. Let's hope our politicians have learned some history lessons and keep a lid on this. Note to Angela Merkel; the Russian's cutting off your gas isn't your biggest problem although it may be your most immediate concern. Times have changed, I think. Expansion is only going to be viable - for the aggressor - via the back door route Vlad is using in the Ukraine. Break away regions and referendums; next stop Eastern Ukraine? As impolite as Vlad is being, he still needs the veil of legitimacy to carry it off. So I would be extremely surprised if Vlad were to absorb a country - or region of a country - without it having a common border with the Russian Federation and without it voting to ask to join. That's not to say Mother Russia won't help its people in such areas, achieve the necessary conditions to bring such a vote about. Behind the scenes - like Local Defence Forces - obviously. But I don't think Vlad will be in an unseemly rush ... Better to let this one blow over, first. If the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine will support joining the Russian Federation, then I would say the course from here is inevitable and merely a question of how long it takes. In the meantime, Russia - or more likely, individual Russians - will need to absorb some of the limited pain dished out by NATO / EU. The worry is, that after nearly 100 years of the Russian Empire, the policy of Russification has created a potentially toxic nationalist legacy in many former Soviet states that Russia can lay claim to under the guise of protecting its citizens. That is how Hitler justified his actions of 1938. I don't know the answer to this - maybe some realignment of national borders by a series of regional plebiscites is the right way to go. Let's hope though, the world's political leaders, keep their heads cool though.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 9:16:17 GMT
Times have changed, I think. Expansion is only going to be viable - for the aggressor - via the back door route Vlad is using in the Ukraine. Break away regions and referendums; next stop Eastern Ukraine? As impolite as Vlad is being, he still needs the veil of legitimacy to carry it off. So I would be extremely surprised if Vlad were to absorb a country - or region of a country - without it having a common border with the Russian Federation and without it voting to ask to join. That's not to say Mother Russia won't help its people in such areas, achieve the necessary conditions to bring such a vote about. Behind the scenes - like Local Defence Forces - obviously. But I don't think Vlad will be in an unseemly rush ... Better to let this one blow over, first. If the ethnic Russian population of Ukraine will support joining the Russian Federation, then I would say the course from here is inevitable and merely a question of how long it takes. In the meantime, Russia - or more likely, individual Russians - will need to absorb some of the limited pain dished out by NATO / EU. The worry is, that after nearly 100 years of the Russian Empire, the policy of Russification has created a potentially toxic nationalist legacy in many former Soviet states that Russia can lay claim to under the guise of protecting its citizens. That is how Hitler justified his actions of 1938. I don't know the answer to this - maybe some realignment of national borders by a series of regional plebiscites is the right way to go. Let's hope though, the world's political leaders, keep their heads cool though. And as with pre-WWII, ignoring the political niceties - turning a blind eye, for the sake of peace - is just as likely this time around. Indeed, the Crimea (and Eastern Ukraine) could be straight out of that textbook. So long as Vlad only hoovers up regions or countries that have no treaties with anyone, it is extremely unlikely anyone will act to stop him. Or at least that appears to be Vlad's assumption, in this (Crimea) case. Rather than hoping for cool heads in an extended situation; let's hope Vlad let's it all calm down again, before looking where next to take advantage of some local political unrest.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 13:08:08 GMT
Tricky situation... On the face of it Crimea becoming part of Russia makes a lot of sense but what happens next? Almost certainly the whole of the Eastern part of the Ukraine secedes, because that is also majority occupied by Russians. After that? Russia takes a bite out of Estonia? Brings South Ossetia formally into Russian territory. Maybe they fancy expanding the exclave of Kaliningrad by eating into Poland and Lithuania? Or settling some outstanding territorial issues with Finland - the divided island of Koiluoto in the Baltic Sea possibly. All this nationalist expansion stuff starts with something that seems reasonable but tends to lead to increasingly dubious actions. Remember how this sequence ended; Austrian anschluss, the Sudetenland, the Danzig corridor... You can see why the former Warsaw Pact countries are feeling very worried today. History resonates! This is a worrying time. Let's hope our politicians have learned some history lessons and keep a lid on this. Note to Angela Merkel; the Russian's cutting off your gas isn't your biggest problem although it may be your most immediate concern. Just a couple of minor points... Crimea becoming part of Russia does not make sense, at all, and is a major failure from all concerned; It is just 'the Eastern part of Ukraine' and not 'the Eastern part of the Ukraine'; The eastern part of Ukraine is not majority occupied by Russians, but instead has a quite high proportion of its population who are native Russians (ranging between 25% to 40% in the different oblasts); Estonia, South Ossetia, Poland and Lithuania...no, no, no and no.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 16:11:08 GMT
Not exactly in keeping with the tone of the debate, thus far, I know ... but ... Who brought the dwarf?!
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Post by partickpotter on Mar 7, 2014 16:20:59 GMT
Tricky situation... On the face of it Crimea becoming part of Russia makes a lot of sense but what happens next? Almost certainly the whole of the Eastern part of the Ukraine secedes, because that is also majority occupied by Russians. After that? Russia takes a bite out of Estonia? Brings South Ossetia formally into Russian territory. Maybe they fancy expanding the exclave of Kaliningrad by eating into Poland and Lithuania? Or settling some outstanding territorial issues with Finland - the divided island of Koiluoto in the Baltic Sea possibly. All this nationalist expansion stuff starts with something that seems reasonable but tends to lead to increasingly dubious actions. Remember how this sequence ended; Austrian anschluss, the Sudetenland, the Danzig corridor... You can see why the former Warsaw Pact countries are feeling very worried today. History resonates! This is a worrying time. Let's hope our politicians have learned some history lessons and keep a lid on this. Note to Angela Merkel; the Russian's cutting off your gas isn't your biggest problem although it may be your most immediate concern. Just a couple of minor points... Crimea becoming part of Russia does not make sense, at all, and is a major failure from all concerned; It is just 'the Eastern part of Ukraine' and not 'the Eastern part of the Ukraine'; The eastern part of Ukraine is not majority occupied by Russians, but instead has a quite high proportion of its population who are native Russians (ranging between 25% to 40% in the different oblasts); Estonia, South Ossetia, Poland and Lithuania...no, no, no and no. Would make sense to some folk - particularly, it would appear, the majority of folks who live in the Crimea. Don't really get your other comments - then again I suspect you didn't really understand what I am saying.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2014 17:17:09 GMT
Just a couple of minor points... Crimea becoming part of Russia does not make sense, at all, and is a major failure from all concerned; It is just 'the Eastern part of Ukraine' and not 'the Eastern part of the Ukraine'; The eastern part of Ukraine is not majority occupied by Russians, but instead has a quite high proportion of its population who are native Russians (ranging between 25% to 40% in the different oblasts); Estonia, South Ossetia, Poland and Lithuania...no, no, no and no. Would make sense to some folk - particularly, it would appear, the majority of folks who live in the Crimea. Don't really get your other comments - then again I suspect you didn't really understand what I am saying. Some folk yes, but for any country to be split driven by a violent neo-nazi coup supported by Europe and America leading to a call for protection from another part of the country is nothing but an absolute and fundamental failure. You've jumped straight to me thinking that the people shouldn't have a right to vote for independence, which is a complete different matter (and linked to why there is such 'a presence' in Crimea as there currently is). Any cessation of Crimea being part of Ukraine will be an absolute tragedy for a whole host of reasons which I am sure you are fully aware of. Why don't you get the other comments though? The second one is correcting you on your calling it 'the Ukraine' instead of 'Ukraine'. The third comment is correcting you on claiming that the east is majority occupied by Russians when it is not. The final is to state that Russia will not be 'expanding' in to those other stated areas either. Before you sit there claiming I don't understand I am incredibly qualified to speak about current events in Ukraine and have the ability and benefit of being able to see a far bigger and complete picture than just the things that are reported.
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Post by partickpotter on Mar 7, 2014 18:05:25 GMT
Would make sense to some folk - particularly, it would appear, the majority of folks who live in the Crimea. Don't really get your other comments - then again I suspect you didn't really understand what I am saying. Some folk yes, but for any country to be split driven by a violent neo-nazi coup supported by Europe and America leading to a call for protection from another part of the country is nothing but an absolute and fundamental failure. You've jumped straight to me thinking that the people shouldn't have a right to vote for independence, which is a complete different matter (and linked to why there is such 'a presence' in Crimea as there currently is). Any cessation of Crimea being part of Ukraine will be an absolute tragedy for a whole host of reasons which I am sure you are fully aware of. Why don't you get the other comments though? The second one is correcting you on your calling it 'the Ukraine' instead of 'Ukraine'. The third comment is correcting you on claiming that the east is majority occupied by Russians when it is not. The final is to state that Russia will not be 'expanding' in to those other stated areas either. Before you sit there claiming I don't understand I am incredibly qualified to speak about current events in Ukraine and have the ability and benefit of being able to see a far bigger and complete picture than just the things that are reported. Fair enough Mr Incredibly Qualified! The demographic map of Ukraine does make interesting viewing though. Helps explain why the Crimea, if they did vote, could very well choose to leave Ukraine and join Russia. As for the rest of the Eastern part of the country there is a substantial (ok not majority) Russian population. BTW - I'm still not sure you got what I was saying. What is in my mind is why not let Crimea secede - it would seem the obvious solution. The worry that exists, particularly in former Soviet republics, is that by setting a precedent in the Crimea, Russia use this to resolve "problems" in other contentious regions; South Ossetia being the obvious one, but there will be others. I'm not saying it will happen, just that the concern exists.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 8, 2014 20:02:11 GMT
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Post by dutchpeter72 on Mar 8, 2014 22:34:26 GMT
Ooh an Arleigh Burke Destroyer I'm so scared. Bog standard tokenism. Skimmers scare nobody.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 8, 2014 22:37:36 GMT
Ooh an Arleigh Burke Destroyer I'm so scared. Bog standard tokenism. Skimmers scare nobody. Definitely but the article itself puts my plans to bed anyway, they couldn't send their aircraft carriers up the Bosphorus anyway! Slightly interesting that it is part of a carrier group though, that is only in Greece!
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Post by dutchpeter72 on Mar 8, 2014 22:43:26 GMT
Ooh an Arleigh Burke Destroyer I'm so scared. Bog standard tokenism. Skimmers scare nobody. Definitely but the article itself puts my plans to bed anyway, they couldn't send their aircraft carriers up the Bosphorus anyway! Slightly interesting that it is part of a carrier group though, that is only in Greece! I saw the USS John C Stennis in Bahrain. We called it the Death Star. Fucking enormous. Apparently it's ghettoised along US City lines. I.e. Black, Hispanic, White etc. or so a yank told me.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2014 23:03:19 GMT
Ooh an Arleigh Burke Destroyer I'm so scared. Bog standard tokenism. Skimmers scare nobody. Skimmers ? ....I guess that's Submariners speak for on the surface is it not mate ?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Mar 8, 2014 23:10:10 GMT
Ooh an Arleigh Burke Destroyer I'm so scared. Bog standard tokenism. Skimmers scare nobody. Definitely but the article itself puts my plans to bed anyway, they couldn't send their aircraft carriers up the Bosphorus anyway! Slightly interesting that it is part of a carrier group though, that is only in Greece! So... no plan B then? It's like TP's still in charge of things...
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 8, 2014 23:13:03 GMT
Definitely but the article itself puts my plans to bed anyway, they couldn't send their aircraft carriers up the Bosphorus anyway! Slightly interesting that it is part of a carrier group though, that is only in Greece! So... no plan B then? It's like TP's still in charge of things... Send up the Charles De Gaulle! Along with some of the Yank smaller Marine carriers that have Harriers on.
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Post by dutchpeter72 on Mar 8, 2014 23:18:29 GMT
So... no plan B then? It's like TP's still in charge of things... Send up the Charles De Gaulle! Along with some of the Yank smaller Marine carriers that have Harriers on. Jaw jaw, not war war as Winston Churchill said, pragmatism, diplomacy will solve this.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 8, 2014 23:21:22 GMT
Send up the Charles De Gaulle! Along with some of the Yank smaller Marine carriers that have Harriers on. Jaw jaw, not war war as Winston Churchill said, pragmatism, diplomacy will solve this. And as I keep saying, I don't want war! But the threat of trade sanctions clearly still isn't working, so we need a bigger and better threat.
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Post by dutchpeter72 on Mar 8, 2014 23:25:31 GMT
Jaw jaw, not war war as Winston Churchill said, pragmatism, diplomacy will solve this. And as I keep saying, I don't want war! But the threat of trade sanctions clearly still isn't working, so we need a bigger and better threat. Don't promulgate hate and war as a solution ( especially when Argyll are near the play offs). I'm sure nobodys Interests are served by this nonsense.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 8, 2014 23:33:52 GMT
And as I keep saying, I don't want war! But the threat of trade sanctions clearly still isn't working, so we need a bigger and better threat. Don't promulgate hate and war as a solution ( especially when Argyll are near the play offs). I'm sure nobodys Interests are served by this nonsense. Nobody wants war, that's why the threat will work!
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