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Post by oggyoggy on May 5, 2024 8:03:41 GMT
Achieving a record breaking swing would be the least impressive election win of all time? Please explain why. Its probably going to be the lowest turnout in living memory. Traditional Tory voters, like myself, feel so disappointed with our party that we cant vote for them, but could never do the unthinkable and vote Labour. Whereas traditional Labour voters will vote for their party, not because of Wishy Washy, or because of their policies ( if they actually announce any...) but because they are desperate to get rid of the Tories. The Labour vote will grow Percenrage wise, but in terms of actual ticks in boxes will be pretty much the same as last time.. I am seriously considering voting Reform, but it depends on who stands here in Mid Staffs, and if others do the same this will hand power to Captain Indecisive.. I guess we will have to see.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 5, 2024 4:44:10 GMT
In case you need another reason never to vote Tory, here is a monumental one: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/04/spending-cuts-are-often-false-economies-that-end-up-costing-society-dearlyI know every violent crime is now considered Sadiq Khan’s fault from the neanderthals who still support this appalling party, but the Tory policy of austerity has utterly destroyed our economy: Institute for fiscal studies found that violent crime increased by 11% in neighbourhoods where police stations were closed (70% were closed). They found that for each pound “saved”, it raised costs faced by society by £3. By then I guess some tory donor got to buy up lots of prime real estate on the cheap when the police stations were sold. For those idiots who still want to see benefits cut, freezing housing support in line with 2019 rent levels, even as rents soared, drove homelessness to record highs (145,800 children are now in temporary accommodation) leaving some, already stretched, councils seeing their temporary accommodation spend rise by nearly 40% last year. I guess it meant the tories could keep open the tax breaks for their rich friends and family. Not funding social care has meant hospitals cannot get rid of long term patients taking up beds and resources at a high cost to the taxpayer. Voting Tory means you support the above, and the further 13% cuts to some government departments (NHS and schools perhaps?) their spending plans require!
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Post by oggyoggy on May 5, 2024 4:34:06 GMT
The hysterical thing is that this scheme, which Sunak was against as Chancellor, is supposed to save Sunak. You’d have to be as thick as Lee Anderson to think this policy is going to do anything but harm harm the tories. Record daily arrivals on small boats have continued since it became law….some deterrent!
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Post by oggyoggy on May 5, 2024 4:29:41 GMT
I head the new mayor’s victory speech and Street’s departing speech. I felt that almost every single politician could learn a thing or two about the two candidates in the way they respected each other yet disagreed. None of the bitterness of Susan Hall in London, instead it genuinely came across that they both support one another in getting the best for their region. They seemed genuinely to prioritise their electorate over party politics.
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London
May 4, 2024 21:41:07 GMT
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 21:41:07 GMT
London deserves all it gets.. only trouble is what happens in London tends to spread everywhere else eventually. So it deserves to be the most affluent part of the country with the most jobs and opportunities for its residents?
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 21:09:18 GMT
If that happens it will be the most impressive general election win of all time. Or least impressive, depending how you view it. Achieving a record breaking swing would be the least impressive election win of all time? Please explain why.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 20:13:53 GMT
It would take the biggest swing of all time for Labour to win any majority, let alone a massive one. I predict a small majority which would be a monumental win for Labour given where we were the days after the 2019 election. Completely unforeseeable. Everyone was saying a a decade of Johnson government! Labour and Starmer may not be super popular, but they are obviously doing something right. They won’t win a majority if they only get the same voters as at the last election. Yes they will if they get the same voters as last time. Tories will stay away or vote Reform. I predict min 80 seat majority, and some huge Tory casualties, even Rishi is not safe If that happens it will be the most impressive general election win of all time.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 19:42:42 GMT
Bias corbyn post coming in. I think one huge difference maker which nobody discusses when it comes to comparing Corbyn and Starmer is the Reform/UKIP effect. - In 2015 & 2016 Local Elections Farages UKIP took 13% and 12% of vote. - In 2015 GE under Farage, UKIP contested nearly every seat and took 12.8% of the vote. - In 2017 GE Farage wasn't leader, they contested nearly half the seats and took 1.8% of the vote. - In 2019 GE Reform/UKIP contested around 70 less seats than 2017 and took 2.1% of the vote. - From 2017 to 2019 Ukip took 5%, 1.4%, 4% of vote - Now all of a sudden Reform are polling at 15% for the next General Election. Basically pre Corbyn years there was a right wing alternative contesting most seats and taking 12%-13% of the vote share. Then during the corbyn years they contested significantly less seats not splting the vote and always taking less than 5%. Now Starmers about to face his first GE and Reform are polling at 15% with intent to contest most seats. Had there been a viable right wing alternative with ambition to contest seats and campaign then Corbyn would have performed much better at Elections. Fair points. But Labour just hammered the Tories in these elections, and Reform/Ukip/Brexit Party were almost nowhere to be seen.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 19:12:43 GMT
Sad state of affairs is that Captain Wishy Washy will win not because of his policies, or his appeal to the electorate, but because it is very much an anti Tory election. And rank and file Tories wont necessarily vote for Labour, but will stay away. Couple that with a diluted Tory vote due to reform and there is only one outcome. HUGE...And I mean fookin mahooooosive Labour majority, and history has told us a huge majority is never a good thing. It would take the biggest swing of all time for Labour to win any majority, let alone a massive one. I predict a small majority which would be a monumental win for Labour given where we were the days after the 2019 election. Completely unforeseeable. Everyone was saying a a decade of Johnson government! Labour and Starmer may not be super popular, but they are obviously doing something right. They won’t win a majority if they only get the same voters as at the last election.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 19:09:35 GMT
West Midlands is Labour. A very good set of results for Labour and Starmer.
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London
May 4, 2024 17:25:28 GMT
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 17:25:28 GMT
Susan Hall is a very sore loser! I don’t get why the Tories thought she’d get them votes. She’s a dinosaur with little charisma which is a real vote winner. They’ll have to up their game next time with someone younger and more in tune with what the majority of Londoners want. They have a history of terrible mayoral candidates: Susan Hall, Shaun Bailey, Zack Goldsmith, Boris Johnson. An absolute shambles.
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London
May 4, 2024 16:54:51 GMT
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 16:54:51 GMT
Susan Hall is a very sore loser!
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 16:39:55 GMT
Seems to be alot of people predicting a tory win in london mayor election now. And they were very much wrong too. Well done Khan: Seems tories change from STV to FPTP hasn't really benefited them. Count Binface beat Britain First.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 16:38:00 GMT
Even better, Count Binface beat the Britain First candidate. London is great.
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London
May 4, 2024 16:36:52 GMT
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Post by oggyoggy on May 4, 2024 16:36:52 GMT
Rumours of Sadiq Khan's demise were greatly exaggerated - Mark Twain He smashed it. And great to see the lib dems win the south west London assembly seat, where the incumbent Tories were also beaten by Labour.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 22:10:21 GMT
Sorry for disagreeing Oggy - I hope my views don't offend and appreciate your replies. Don’t apologise for disagreeing! Life would be so dull if we all agreed.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 20:33:11 GMT
It would be an all time record swing for Starmer to win a majority. Arguably it would be the most impressive election result of any party ever to do it. It is a nonsense as FPTP means everyone goes back to labour or tory. You were taking the piss oggy right? Especially following it up with this subsequent post. Or were you being serious? Taking the piss about what? In 2019 the tories got 365 seats to labour’s 202. It would be a monumental turnaround for Labour to win a majority. A record swing: www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-labour-would-need-record-vote-swing-win-majority-research-shows-2024-01-16/Other (including Greens) won’t get a quarter of the votes at the GE I doubt. At the 2019 GE, Tory, Labour and lib dems got 87.3% of votes.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 20:09:48 GMT
So labour being up (currently) 132 seats, and the tories down by 195, with potentially fewer overall counsellors than the lib dems of those up for election, in other words, the tories may finish third overall, and Labour winning one of the most brexity constituencies in a byelection is not a good night for Labour!?!? Corbyn would have snapped your hand off for success like that! Labour have gained, so far, 8 councils, 4 from the tories and 4 from NOC. Yet people don’t apparently don’t like them and aren’t voting for them!?!? In comparison to forecasts it's not been a great election in my opinion. Here is one I posted yesterday: Labour were predicted to win 273 seats. At the time of writing 99/107 councils are complete they've won 169. Labour - +20% councillors Lib Dem - +24% councillors Independent - +67% Green - +71% Residents Association - +31% Workers Party - Infinity% Reform - Infinity% Out of all the parties to benefit from the tories downfall, they've seen the lowest percentage increase. Considering the tories have lost 432 seats. You'd have expected labour to gain more than 169 as predicted. Some other predictions from political commentators in build up where even more optimistic for labour: Interesting predictions. Wildly optimistic for Labour! They have still had very good results.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 19:45:54 GMT
“Other” is way too high in fairness, although I think the Greens will do well. The challenge there going to have is exactly the same issue Reform have in this next election. They'll get a load of votes and will barely a win a seat. As much as I'm not a fan of the Greens it's wrong. Give me a shed load of Reform mps and Green mps over this current crap. I agree with you Rossi. And that’s exactly why every party but the big two are pro electoral reform. Unless every party but the big two club together and form alliances around a 1 issue general election of electoral reform, they will never get the reform to our system that we so desperately need.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 19:35:28 GMT
They deserve prison for so obviously lying. Or at the very least struck from the roll of solicitors
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 19:25:28 GMT
Take Greens out from Other, and Other has had a bad night. The Greens are doing brilliantly!
I thought Reform were supposed to be breaking through? Non-existent performance from them, but perhaps they didn’t stand any candidates?
The rumour mill has it that Khan may have lost in London due to the cynical and anti democratic change to first past the post. I wonder if that will happen.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 18:33:08 GMT
Labour not winning a clear majority would be an absolutely disaster for the party. Would that be the first time a winning party leader would have to resign? “Other” is way too high in fairness, although I think the Greens will do well. It is a nonsense as FPTP means everyone goes back to labour or tory.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 18:32:27 GMT
Labour not winning a clear majority would be an absolutely disaster for the party. Would that be the first time a winning party leader would have to resign? It would be an all time record swing for Starmer to win a majority. Arguably it would be the most impressive election result of any party ever to do it.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 17:19:34 GMT
At the next GE there are two possible Candidates who will be the next PM Rishi or whoever the Conservatives might replace him with after today's meltdown or Starmer. It's quite obvious which I prefer
Starmer is not standing in the Constituency where I'll be Voting. I will be voting for the most able Candidate but he/she won't be a Tory
I don't need to create any artificial spin on todays results as you on your own admission appear to want to do, they speak for themselves. The Swing from Conservatives to Labour in Blackpool South is the 3rd highest since WW 11
The whole Country is fed up to the back teeth of this shower of incompetent, corrupt fraudsters. It's not just Labour that are having a good day, but also the LibDem's and Greens. Fringe Party's like Reform and WPB are not even registering in Local Elections and will fare even worse in GE where National not Local issues become more focused
Busy gardening but as you claim I'm speaking bollocks. From the bbc 20 mins ago: "Looking at just the Parliamentary by-election in Blackpool South, the turnout there was 32.4%. If you compare that with other by-elections since the last general election, it is comparatively low - 19 out of 23." Keep pretending it's a good by election turnout though. And as for Rochdale. Well for a by election "with no labour candidate" a helluva alot more people came out to vote than in Blackpool which had a labour candidate. Guess people just aren't inspired by labour bar the "labour have broken all their pledges and are offering more austerity but I'm still voting for them" crew on here. Labour have 159 more councillors now (and 1 more MP) and control 7 more councils than they had yesterday. They seem to be doing well to me.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 16:32:40 GMT
He seemed to be complaining that the NHS pay people a lot to do what he thinks are a waste of time like put up a banner for pride. I was pointing out the people do a great deal more than that. They would be paid a lot more in a private company to do the same job. Why didn't you just say that then? I did
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 16:32:19 GMT
No, HR Directors are common in big organisations. They do a lot more than fly flags. Funnily enough the HR director agreed with me in MY case. Wasn’t he/she too busy hoisting flags to speak with you?
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 16:30:21 GMT
Thank you. So the two roles are not about hoisting flags. As I suspected. He never claimed that they were. He seemed to be complaining that the NHS pay people a lot to do what he thinks are a waste of time like put up a banner for pride. I was pointing out the people do a great deal more than that. They would be paid a lot more in a private company to do the same job.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 16:23:31 GMT
Its not important to those that run it though, Here in Stoke they got some flack from media because someone decided to adorn the Royal Stoke with flag banners for all this progressive nonsense. The person who came up with this is paid between 130 - 160,000 per year along with a deputy on between 96 -115,000 per year. If we go on the lower scale that is a quarter of a million on two pay cheques alone doing nothing which improves clinical excellence or patient benefit. Yet no one has even got worked up over that. Maybe it's not important enough to a lot of people. And that's just one hospital and it certainly won't be alone. These kind of bullshit roles aren't exclusive to the NHS/public sector though are they? My office, and indeed my desk, was adorned with the very same flags during pride month (!) last year. No, HR Directors are common in big organisations. They do a lot more than fly flags.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 16:21:05 GMT
Thank you. So the two roles are not about hoisting flags. As I suspected.
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Post by oggyoggy on May 3, 2024 15:56:47 GMT
Oh, use private companies seems to be the answer. No thanks, the NHS is important to me Its not important to those that run it though, Here in Stoke they got some flack from media because someone decided to adorn the Royal Stoke with flag banners for all this progressive nonsense. The person who came up with this is paid between 130 - 160,000 per year along with a deputy on between 96 -115,000 per year. If we go on the lower scale that is a quarter of a million on two pay cheques alone doing nothing which improves clinical excellence or patient benefit. Yet no one has even got worked up over that. Maybe it's not important enough to a lot of people. And that's just one hospital and it certainly won't be alone. Do post links. Surely the NHS does not pay two people a quarter of a million per hospital to hoist flags!?
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