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Post by wannabee on Apr 13, 2023 20:12:50 GMT
Read a headline this morning that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is now on hold but now I can’t find it Anyone else see this? Only seen constant rumours going in every direction. Most shocking thing was that the intel leaks from earlier in the year seem to be legit. Was some 20/21 year old national guardsman called Jack Teixeira who was trying to get popular online. Absolutely nuts. EDIT: maybe this headline says Ukrainian offensive delayed? There will clout chasers lying and intentional propaganda all over the place so how do we know which bits are real? No great surprise that the leaker is a Spotty Right Wing, Gun Facinated, Racist Youth Military Intellegence has always been an Oxymoron. Recruiting Vetting Procedures and Circulation Control of Classified Documents is clearly a joke. The fact that US spies on its Allies is hardly news, all Countries do it to some degree, some of the comments might be embarrassing As i said before what is problematic is that it provides Russia with direct information of where its Intellegence may be weak and the source of that weakness It also provides Russia with Intellegence on the Ukrainian Military thinking for counter offensive Of course plans can be changed but presumably there was reasoning behind original plans Amateur Night at the Proms
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 13, 2023 21:26:03 GMT
Supposedly T-54/55 in Ukraine. A design from the 1940s.
Anyone else remember the Russian propaganda saying Putin was holding back the real good stuff?
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 13, 2023 23:36:33 GMT
A Telegram channel had a new report from a soldier in Bakhmut. It sounds like Wagner took the train station so they've broken through another defence line. Most of the city is now conquered, but the flanks are still safe.
He said Ukraine now has more ammo and the invaders are sending big waves again instead of small groups. He showed a drone video to prove it.
Two Ukrainians with friends fighting near Bakhmut have told me what they heard and both said the same. Waves of Russian meat get mown down and then a new wave comes and crawls over the corpses.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 14, 2023 10:22:03 GMT
In Bakhmut it seems like Ukraine are rigging buildings up, retreating and then when Russians take them over they blow them the fuck up.
They must think it's worth carrying on doing and helping them. But we shall see!
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 14, 2023 15:16:22 GMT
I heard a speach via work the other day which provided a fascinating military insight into the Ukraine war from an ex mi6 agent last week who had spent time in a whole bunch of war zones, notably Ukraine. He was very clear and concise in saying that the collective view on the ground (not what you see in the media) is that if Ukraine are to win this the war, it will need to happen quickly. The longer this goes on, regardless of how much equipment they get from the West, Ukraine will be worn down and forced to concede territory. Worrying stuff and always useful to hear from pros. Did he expect Ukraine's people to give up or that supplies would run out? I have to hope he's wrong and Ukraine surprises us again because I don't see how to free everywhere this year. So many things could derail it but current path seems to be a slow Ukrainian victory. Russia failed with superior firepower, what will they do when they're outshot by Ukraine sometime next year?
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 14, 2023 15:32:03 GMT
People now saying Germany is getting its act together. Apparently the latest defence minister Pistorius* is responsible?
*Not the same one as "roses are red, violets are glorious, don't sneak up on oscar Pistorius".
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Apr 14, 2023 15:32:40 GMT
I heard a speach via work the other day which provided a fascinating military insight into the Ukraine war from an ex mi6 agent last week who had spent time in a whole bunch of war zones, notably Ukraine. He was very clear and concise in saying that the collective view on the ground (not what you see in the media) is that if Ukraine are to win this the war, it will need to happen quickly. The longer this goes on, regardless of how much equipment they get from the West, Ukraine will be worn down and forced to concede territory. Worrying stuff and always useful to hear from pros. Did he expect Ukraine's people to give up or that supplies would run out? I have to hope he's wrong and Ukraine surprises us again because I don't see how to free everywhere this year. So many things could derail it but current path seems to be a slow Ukrainian victory. Russia failed with superior firepower, what will they do when they're outshot by Ukraine sometime next year? Definitely didn't think they'd give up mate but he did reference war fatigue kicking in and did seem fairly confident at some point they would have to come to some form of agreement over territory as Putin cannot return to Russia empty handed. Even if Ukraine formally conceded Crimea and that was it, I think most the world will still view that as a huge Ukrainian victory. A military of 250k defending itself against a monster like Russia. That said, I reckon Zelensky and the West still has a lot of work to do to ensure Ukraine get themselves in such a dominant position that Putin would be willing to gracefully bow out of Donetsk and Luhansk. That would be quite the achievement.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Apr 14, 2023 15:33:51 GMT
People now saying Germany is getting its act together. Apparently the latest defence minister Pistorius* is responsible? *Not the same one as "roses are red, violets are glorious, don't sneak up on oscar Pistorius". They've clearly been reading the oatcake and the need for a "quick" Ukrainian victory. 😊
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 14, 2023 21:48:17 GMT
Only seen constant rumours going in every direction. Most shocking thing was that the intel leaks from earlier in the year seem to be legit. Was some 20/21 year old national guardsman called Jack Teixeira who was trying to get popular online. Absolutely nuts. EDIT: maybe this headline says Ukrainian offensive delayed? There will clout chasers lying and intentional propaganda all over the place so how do we know which bits are real? Wasn’t the WP but essentially the same content. Hopefully this is BS because if it’s not something is amiss. The weather and ammo excuses don’t really stand up to scrutiny (what’s changed in 2 weeks?!) I’m starting to think the Ukrainians are nowhere near strong enough now to launch a proper counteroffensive given the Russians have had so much time to entrench and fortify. Classic looking stalemate to me (and it could have been so different last Autumn) I think Ukraine will say whatever they think helps them the most. E.g. if they're ready to attack tomorrow they should absolutely leak "oh everything is delayed we just aren't ready". Then of course it gets into mind games. It sounds like even famous historical cases were changed too e.g. D-day was delayed and almost put back for another month. Like you say Russia has dug in, and Ukraine is being forced to do things the hard way. That said, I think there are ~12 brigades held back and another ~8 expected late summer... I hope it's enough but I really worry for those heroes.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 14, 2023 21:59:41 GMT
Some Telegram channels just exploded with rumours of Ukraine attacking south in Zaporizhzhia. Usually this leaks onto twitter etc soon after.
Similar stuff happened for months last year and most of the time it was bullshit or just small movements. Ukraine played the intel game and released rumours everywhere to distract, keep Russians nervous etc.
So I'm expecting to see lots of wrong info about any offensives being spread from now through summer.
Fwiw the leaked US documents said Ukraine would only have part of its offensive brigades ready by now...
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 15, 2023 16:08:52 GMT
Very interesting, just seen a clip where Prigozhin is calling on Russia to declare the war over now that Russia has “significantly” its aims in Ukraine
Hopefully it means they are close to being bled dry
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 15, 2023 16:13:25 GMT
Some other interesting comments from Prigozhin, he might soon be taking flying lessons from the top story of a tall building
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 15, 2023 17:08:05 GMT
Worrying stuff and always useful to hear from pros. Did he expect Ukraine's people to give up or that supplies would run out? I have to hope he's wrong and Ukraine surprises us again because I don't see how to free everywhere this year. So many things could derail it but current path seems to be a slow Ukrainian victory. Russia failed with superior firepower, what will they do when they're outshot by Ukraine sometime next year? Definitely didn't think they'd give up mate but he did reference war fatigue kicking in and did seem fairly confident at some point they would have to come to some form of agreement over territory as Putin cannot return to Russia empty handed. Even if Ukraine formally conceded Crimea and that was it, I think most the world will still view that as a huge Ukrainian victory. A military of 250k defending itself against a monster like Russia. That said, I reckon Zelensky and the West still has a lot of work to do to ensure Ukraine get themselves in such a dominant position that Putin would be willing to gracefully bow out of Donetsk and Luhansk. That would be quite the achievement. I hope he's wrong about fatigue. Ukrainians have reasons to fight: a bad peace means another invasion later and civilians left behind will be forcibly Russified or exterminated. IMO Russia only wins with China or if Ukrainians don't get help and crack if they feel abandoned. That's why I think western politics are so important. In the US leaks Ukraine suffered ~400-450 KIA per million population. The "DPR" puppet government in Donetsk official numbers were ~2000 KIA/million last year. So if Ukraine goes as hard as the DPR then that's 4+ years. Ukraine could be the more technologically advanced army next year too, which should boost morale! EDIT: obviously the MI6 bloke should know loads more than me. It's just that early 2022 loads of folk thought Ukraine would cave, I just have this feeling that Ukrainian willpower is still a blind spot for some people, even smart professionals.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 15, 2023 20:47:15 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 15, 2023 20:48:51 GMT
Ukranian will:
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 15, 2023 22:07:57 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 16, 2023 7:24:44 GMT
This seems a tad desperate?
On the face of it seems like he was in their navy in a pretty specialist role and they then used him as more meat for the grinder.
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Post by raythesailor on Apr 16, 2023 11:11:35 GMT
Recently heard a report that Putin is receiving chemo for cancer. But have seen little or no coverage of it.
Is this false news or wishful thinking ?
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 16, 2023 15:36:24 GMT
Thread on what Russian-controlled Donbas was like after 2014. When Russia was being "nicer" to try and keep popular.
Mass disappearance, rape, torture and execution of thousands of civilians. They filmed a lot of them as propaganda then when it got in the western news they blamed Ukrainians.
I don't think we in the west realised how brutal and disgusting Putin's Russia is.
Try and imagine how you'd feel if they were doing this to Brits for most of a decade and then some foreigners said you had to surrender because Putin needs a win.
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Post by questionable on Apr 16, 2023 15:38:59 GMT
Recently heard a report that Putin is receiving chemo for cancer. But have seen little or no coverage of it. Is this false news or wishful thinking ? There’s been multiple such reports, in saying that there’s also reports Putin has 3 doubles who’ve been surgically made to look like him and they attend certain events as the real Putin fears assassination.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 16, 2023 15:40:12 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 16, 2023 15:57:00 GMT
Recently heard a report that Putin is receiving chemo for cancer. But have seen little or no coverage of it. Is this false news or wishful thinking ? There’s been multiple such reports, in saying that there’s also reports Putin has 3 doubles who’ve been surgically made to look like him and they attend certain events as the real Putin fears assassination. The only evidence I've seen that looked convincing was Putin's weird hand movements and what looked like marks from some kind of medical drip. I got my hopes up that he'd just die a horrible death asap but the rumours have been going around since the beginning of the invasion and the fucker still goes on TV
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Post by questionable on Apr 16, 2023 16:13:34 GMT
You’d assume something is in the making soon with multiple points of attack, I really hope Ukraine are successful and inflict massive casualties on all that is Russian. It’s eerily quiet and most of the Twitter feeds I’m seeing are days old with little if any new reports from both sides. Can’t recall a Russian missile attack for sometime but reports suggested Russian supply’s were low.
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Post by wannabee on Apr 16, 2023 16:57:19 GMT
Thread on what Russian-controlled Donbas was like after 2014. When Russia was being "nicer" to try and keep popular. Mass disappearance, rape, torture and execution of thousands of civilians. They filmed a lot of them as propaganda then when it got in the western news they blamed Ukrainians. I don't think we in the west realised how brutal and disgusting Putin's Russia is. Try and imagine how you'd feel if they were doing this to Brits for most of a decade and then some foreigners said you had to surrender because Putin needs a win. To be fair Brits did some very squirrely stuff in the Countries it occupied down the years which you won't read about in your History Books in School The moral of the story is, no matter the outcome of the current conflict, you cannot occupy a Country against the will of its People indefinitely. And the worse the atrocities inflicted trying to do so only stiffens resolve and resentment for generations.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2023 1:25:29 GMT
To be fair Brits did some very squirrely stuff in the Countries it occupied down the years which you won't read about in your History Books in School The moral of the story is, no matter the outcome of the current conflict, you cannot occupy a Country against the will of its People indefinitely. And the worse the atrocities inflicted trying to do so only stiffens resolve and resentment for generations. I'm worried that what the Russians have taken away from history is that you can - you just need to be brutal or do it for long enough or have the right propaganda. From what I can tell, the present Russian Federation descends from the Muscovite Empire. There seems to be no risk of them losing occupied colonies like Kuban, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Dagestan, Chechnya, Tatarstan, Buryatia or Primorye. Brutal Russification didn't always work, but it seems like it worked a lot of the time, so that's what they're trying in occupied Ukraine. I saw some rumours that the PRC recently demanded Chinese sources rename Russian-occupied China, e.g. Haishenwai was conquered by Russia and renamed Vladivostok, and recently the PRC changed the maps back to Haishenwai. Closer to home, the Ango-Saxons never threw off the Norman yoke, although as I understand it we eventually moved towards more progressive values to solve the problem, albeit not without some horrendous shite on the way.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 17, 2023 15:34:13 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 17, 2023 15:37:45 GMT
To be fair Brits did some very squirrely stuff in the Countries it occupied down the years which you won't read about in your History Books in School The moral of the story is, no matter the outcome of the current conflict, you cannot occupy a Country against the will of its People indefinitely. And the worse the atrocities inflicted trying to do so only stiffens resolve and resentment for generations. I'm worried that what the Russians have taken away from history is that you can - you just need to be brutal or do it for long enough or have the right propaganda. From what I can tell, the present Russian Federation descends from the Muscovite Empire. There seems to be no risk of them losing occupied colonies like Kuban, Karelia, Kaliningrad, Dagestan, Chechnya, Tatarstan, Buryatia or Primorye. Brutal Russification didn't always work, but it seems like it worked a lot of the time, so that's what they're trying in occupied Ukraine. I saw some rumours that the PRC recently demanded Chinese sources rename Russian-occupied China, e.g. Haishenwai was conquered by Russia and renamed Vladivostok, and recently the PRC changed the maps back to Haishenwai. Closer to home, the Ango-Saxons never threw off the Norman yoke, although as I understand it we eventually moved towards more progressive values to solve the problem, albeit not without some horrendous shite on the way. That about Vladivostock is interesting. I've convinced myself that it makes sense for China to want Russia to fail and take over Russia's east. Its only a small thing but could be seen as a little provocative?
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2023 15:44:49 GMT
Wagner fighters say orders came from high up to murder Ukrainian children.
Yes I know the Raj did bad things and we invaded Iraq, but there's no evidence of our current armed forces ordering our soldiers to slaughter everyone in towns so if verified I don't think it's right to "both sides" this.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2023 16:08:12 GMT
That about Vladivostock is interesting. I've convinced myself that it makes sense for China to want Russia to fail and take over Russia's east. Its only a small thing but could be seen as a little provocative? I don't trust the auto translate or the sources I found so not sure if the news is real. There are definitely some Chinese accounts who say they see Haishenwai/Vladivostok as China. Russia has nukes so no one will invade, but Putin's doing his best to turn Russia into a PRC vassal state. After this war I wouldn't be surprised to see China just signing up to buy up important chunks of Russia on the cheap.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 17, 2023 16:13:54 GMT
That about Vladivostock is interesting. I've convinced myself that it makes sense for China to want Russia to fail and take over Russia's east. Its only a small thing but could be seen as a little provocative? I don't trust the auto translate or the sources I found so not sure if the news is real. There are definitely some Chinese accounts who say they see Haishenwai/Vladivostok as China. Russia has nukes so no one will invade, but Putin's doing his best to turn Russia into a PRC vassal state. After this war I wouldn't be surprised to see China just signing up to buy up important chunks of Russia on the cheap. Not as it stands currently but as things stand life after Putin looks hairy for Russia. If it does break up into smaller states then parts of it will be ripe for the taking and China isn't stupid.
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