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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 8, 2023 15:49:29 GMT
Couch to 10k Putin style
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 8, 2023 17:00:47 GMT
Again be wary of the sources, but Russians stating Leopard tanks not fit for purpose and are being fitted with additional Russian kontakt armour. Apparently photos doing the rounds back this up. Coupled with the MIGs they recently received being able to fly but not combat worthy!! What a joke! The more of this you see you really have to wonder does the West have an interest in a long drawn out conflict. Numerous opportunities to arm the Ukrainians properly spurned It seems like the Kontakt-type "ERA" armour is kinda a meme. I saw some interviews where mechanics said it has pros and cons, Ukrainians just fucking love it. US soldiers said they were told that ERA is more dangerous for nearby infantry. NATO tactics are combined arms so NATO generally use less, particularly in the front where you're most likely to get hit during face-to-face battle where the infantry are deployed.
Sometimes NATO adds ERA to the sides though so I'm not sure how that all makes sense.
The funnier bit was where Russians put it on vehicles where the ERA explosion would destroy the vehicle lol. Ukrainian mechanic Memes:
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Apr 8, 2023 18:01:15 GMT
Again be wary of the sources, but Russians stating Leopard tanks not fit for purpose and are being fitted with additional Russian kontakt armour. Apparently photos doing the rounds back this up. Coupled with the MIGs they recently received being able to fly but not combat worthy!! What a joke! The more of this you see you really have to wonder does the West have an interest in a long drawn out conflict. Numerous opportunities to arm the Ukrainians properly spurned It's not out the question. Some things are for certain if we get a long drawn out conflict. - Russian and Ukrainian armies will be depleted to the point of no return for years to come. - Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians and Russians will be slaughtered. - Both Ukraine and Russia will eventually be forced to the negotiation table and Ukraine (and Russia) will eventually have to concede on something. - The risk of the war spilling out of Ukraine ever increases. I suppose the idea of a severely weakened Russia would be a big appeal to the West. Not a particularly ethical stance mind but it's not out the question. Personally I don't think the West want the war to last forever but at the same time I do think they are incredibly hesitant about committing too much, for various reasons. The war will eventually end at the negotiation table but it's just a case of when!
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 8, 2023 19:10:14 GMT
[snip]It's not out the question. Some things are for certain if we get a long drawn out conflict. - Russian and Ukrainian armies will be depleted to the point of no return for years to come. - Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians and Russians will be slaughtered. - Both Ukraine and Russia will eventually be forced to the negotiation table and Ukraine (and Russia) will eventually have to concede on something. - The risk of the war spilling out of Ukraine ever increases. I suppose the idea of a severely weakened Russia would be a big appeal to the West. Not a particularly ethical stance mind but it's not out the question. Personally I don't think the West want the war to last forever but at the same time I do think they are incredibly hesitant about committing too much, for various reasons. The war will eventually end at the negotiation table but it's just a case of when! Before all this shit I knew fighter jets and tanks were expensive but had no idea how costly doing anything with them is. It's insane.
An F-16 is >$20k/hour to fly so a single air patrol of 2 jets for a few years is ~$1.2 billion ( source). NASAMS ground launchers cost nothing by comparison. Maybe that's why there are 9 NASAMS batteries and zero F-16s planned. IMO it'll be cheaper overall to win faster, but it would need a lot of new money announced soon and multi-year guarantees. That's politically hard.
The HIMARS launcher truck is listed at $5 million, but if it launches just a single pod of missiles per day that's $220 million/year.
EDIT: I'm thinking we'd need announcements that sound huge, maybe around $100 bn. But that's money now to save money later, and Russia is gonna be losing equipment at way more than that rate. I saw a good estimate that Russia has fired tens of billions of dollars worth of shells, rockets & missiles already here.
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Post by questionable on Apr 8, 2023 21:24:21 GMT
Again be wary of the sources, but Russians stating Leopard tanks not fit for purpose and are being fitted with additional Russian kontakt armour. Apparently photos doing the rounds back this up. Coupled with the MIGs they recently received being able to fly but not combat worthy!! What a joke! The more of this you see you really have to wonder does the West have an interest in a long drawn out conflict. Numerous opportunities to arm the Ukrainians properly spurned It's not out the question. Some things are for certain if we get a long drawn out conflict. - Russian and Ukrainian armies will be depleted to the point of no return for years to come. - Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians and Russians will be slaughtered. - Both Ukraine and Russia will eventually be forced to the negotiation table and Ukraine (and Russia) will eventually have to concede on something. - The risk of the war spilling out of Ukraine ever increases. I suppose the idea of a severely weakened Russia would be a big appeal to the West. Not a particularly ethical stance mind but it's not out the question. Personally I don't think the West want the war to last forever but at the same time I do think they are incredibly hesitant about committing too much, for various reasons. The war will eventually end at the negotiation table but it's just a case of when! I can honestly see Poland being dragged into the entire shit show and believe me Poland would wipe the floor with anything Russia could muster up, there’s countries out there itching to get pay back on anything Russian.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 9, 2023 14:59:53 GMT
Graph showing area captured by month. Russia has failed to make real progress since last summer.
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Post by lordb on Apr 9, 2023 15:25:32 GMT
It's not out the question. Some things are for certain if we get a long drawn out conflict. - Russian and Ukrainian armies will be depleted to the point of no return for years to come. - Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainians and Russians will be slaughtered. - Both Ukraine and Russia will eventually be forced to the negotiation table and Ukraine (and Russia) will eventually have to concede on something. - The risk of the war spilling out of Ukraine ever increases. I suppose the idea of a severely weakened Russia would be a big appeal to the West. Not a particularly ethical stance mind but it's not out the question. Personally I don't think the West want the war to last forever but at the same time I do think they are incredibly hesitant about committing too much, for various reasons. The war will eventually end at the negotiation table but it's just a case of when! I can honestly see Poland being dragged into the entire shit show and believe me Poland would wipe the floor with anything Russia could muster up, there’s countries out there itching to get pay back on anything Russian. As Poland is in NATO that isn't going to happen
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 9, 2023 18:15:51 GMT
General Gerasimov replaced General Surovikin ~3 months ago. Since Gerasimov started the big Russian Winter Offensive, the video spotters counted these lost vehicles: Russian losses - Ukrainian lossesTanks: 307 - 33 Fighting vehicles: 450-96 Jets: 11-6 Helicopters: 6-0 Surface-to-air missiles: 18-14 Self-propelled artillery (guns + rockets): 98-42 APCs and light infantry carriers: 19-62
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 9, 2023 21:20:26 GMT
New York Times says Ukraine had to throw vital reserve units in to hold the roads to Balhmut. Still too early to tell but this could mean that the decision to hold the city has hurt the chances for a later counteroffensive.
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Post by musik on Apr 10, 2023 12:52:19 GMT
🥸
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Post by musik on Apr 10, 2023 12:58:14 GMT
Personally I don't think the West want the war to last forever but at the same time I do think they are incredibly hesitant about committing too much, for various reasons. The war will eventually end at the negotiation table but it's just a case of when! I vote for the negotiation table! However, I am fully aware of the risk of continuation with all the countries supporting Russia. And we have the worrying situation in Israel, Syria, Libanon and the current and coming interference from other countries in that region. And the China-Taiwan situation. And in Korea, South and North. What's wrong with people?
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 10, 2023 20:05:51 GMT
Seeing videos like this now. Donated equipment proves they're at least kinda recent.
Intel pros have a "best" case for Ukraine in early summer: assault group of 300+ tanks, 400+ fighting vehicles like the BMP-1s above, ~200 artillery. Lots of other armoured vehicles with smaller guns.
Sounds like a lot but it's still so so risky. Ukrainian artillery+mines destroyed 80-100 Russian vehicles at Bilohirivka (in hours) and Vulhedar (in days).
Ukraine can't afford fuckups like Russia keeps making. But if the attack goes well, there should be 8-12 reinforcement volunteer brigades ready by Aug/September.
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Post by wannabee on Apr 10, 2023 20:38:49 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 10, 2023 22:53:04 GMT
Not posted yet, cheers wannabee. It's an insane story, it looked fake at first but now not so sure. Bellingcat traced it back and found that an argument in an online videogame chat was one step in the photos going public. If real there's very bad news in there about Ukraine's resources. They're getting low on anti-aircraft missiles so they will need money to get a new fleet of NATO jets running asap.
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Post by OldStokie on Apr 11, 2023 13:42:13 GMT
If it's part of a disinformation game then it's the work of a cunning genius the way they've mixed a few home truths with disinformation. If it is disinformation then Israel, Turkey, and S. Korea will have given the green light before it was done. Some real life situations are stranger than fantasy. Well, I hope this is one.
OS.
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Post by wannabee on Apr 11, 2023 15:23:15 GMT
If it's part of a disinformation game then it's the work of a cunning genius the way they've mixed a few home truths with disinformation. If it is disinformation then Israel, Turkey, and S. Korea will have given the green light before it was done. Some real life situations are stranger than fantasy. Well, I hope this is one. OS. It sounds to me like some braggadacious would be General consumed too many sherbets and didn't like losing an argument, but what do I know. There are about 4 versions doing the rounds and the leaked information is apparently from at least two sources. There would be little point in faking Russian Intelligence Information and that in itself puts the source it was gathered, human or otherwise, at risk As you say the leak to me is so wide ranging involving too many Countries for it to be entirely fake as it would require too many Countries to stay Schtum
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 11, 2023 20:25:29 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 11, 2023 21:16:58 GMT
The video is disgusting and thoroughly convincing that Russians took a Ukrainian prisoner and brutally cut off his head. At the beginning his legs are flailing as he struggles to get away.
While Ukraine investigates and its leaders repeat that prisoners must be treated according to the laws of war, Russians planned torture chambers across the country and Putin rewards units that slaughter civilians.
This is what awaits Ukrainians on a massive scale if any land is surrendered to Russia.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 11, 2023 22:59:27 GMT
Beautiful vid of our soldiers lining up as Ukrainians they trained are on their way back.
Our boys and girls will have done us proud no doubt.
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Post by questionable on Apr 12, 2023 10:51:34 GMT
Beautiful vid of our soldiers lining up as Ukrainians they trained are on their way back. Our boys and girls will have done us proud no doubt. My brother has met loads of them and said what great proud people they are.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 12, 2023 14:46:22 GMT
South Korea to lend 500,000 artillery shells to the US. HUGE deal if the rounds arrive quickly, should free up help for Ukraine. The Korean excuse for not sending to Ukraine is they say they can't send to a warzone because they need to defend themselves? Sounds like bullshit. No reason why a warzone is different from Poland, and they're happy to take Polish money for weapons.
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Post by ashleyscfc on Apr 12, 2023 23:28:56 GMT
South Korea to lend 500,000 artillery shells to the US. HUGE deal if the rounds arrive quickly, should free up help for Ukraine. The Korean excuse for not sending to Ukraine is they say they can't send to a warzone because they need to defend themselves? Sounds like bullshit. No reason why a warzone is different from Poland, and they're happy to take Polish money for weapons. Because North Korea? They will have a conventional artillery war (basically unstoppable), so they could do with the spares It’s a shame our governments have moved away from the principles we need to be able to be able to build our own defence equipment, and have the suitable scale, even with mothballed factories, whatever the cost. Considering how much we spend, and sell, we have frighteningly little to show for it
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 13, 2023 4:52:36 GMT
South Korea to lend 500,000 artillery shells to the US. HUGE deal if the rounds arrive quickly, should free up help for Ukraine. The Korean excuse for not sending to Ukraine is they say they can't send to a warzone because they need to defend themselves? Sounds like bullshit. No reason why a warzone is different from Poland, and they're happy to take Polish money for weapons. Because North Korea? They will have a conventional artillery war (basically unstoppable), so they could do with the spares It’s a shame our governments have moved away from the principles we need to be able to be able to build our own defence equipment, and have the suitable scale, even with mothballed factories, whatever the cost. Considering how much we spend, and sell, we have frighteningly little to show for it I get why they want stuff for themselves mate, I'd be proper nervous if I lived next to that nutter and I work with enough S Koreans to have sympathy... I just didn't see why they could send 500k shells to the US but not to Ukraine? Either way they're out of the country. I read a bit more and apparently it's a Korean law so I guess some heroes over there did what they could to help out. If it means 500k more 'murrican shells get to Ukraine this year then that's brilliant.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Apr 13, 2023 7:13:21 GMT
I heard a speach via work the other day which provided a fascinating military insight into the Ukraine war from an ex mi6 agent last week who had spent time in a whole bunch of war zones, notably Ukraine.
He was very clear and concise in saying that the collective view on the ground (not what you see in the media) is that if Ukraine are to win this the war, it will need to happen quickly. The longer this goes on, regardless of how much equipment they get from the West, Ukraine will be worn down and forced to concede territory.
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Post by musik on Apr 13, 2023 7:23:36 GMT
What happened in Japan? Seeking shelter? The text-tv news didn't reveal much.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 13, 2023 14:43:35 GMT
Interesting. In the leaked "secret" documents all the Bradleys were assigned to the 45th Brigade. The 32nd was listed with MaxxPro MRAP vehicles.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 13, 2023 14:50:53 GMT
Environmentally friendly mine clearance.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 13, 2023 17:32:56 GMT
Read a headline this morning that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is now on hold but now I can’t find it
Anyone else see this?
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 13, 2023 17:40:16 GMT
Read a headline this morning that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is now on hold but now I can’t find it Anyone else see this? Only seen constant rumours going in every direction. Most shocking thing was that the intel leaks from earlier in the year seem to be legit. Was some 20/21 year old national guardsman called Jack Teixeira who was trying to get popular online. Absolutely nuts. EDIT: maybe this headline says Ukrainian offensive delayed? There will clout chasers lying and intentional propaganda all over the place so how do we know which bits are real?
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 13, 2023 19:08:20 GMT
Read a headline this morning that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is now on hold but now I can’t find it Anyone else see this? Only seen constant rumours going in every direction. Most shocking thing was that the intel leaks from earlier in the year seem to be legit. Was some 20/21 year old national guardsman called Jack Teixeira who was trying to get popular online. Absolutely nuts. EDIT: maybe this headline says Ukrainian offensive delayed? There will clout chasers lying and intentional propaganda all over the place so how do we know which bits are real? Wasn’t the WP but essentially the same content. Hopefully this is BS because if it’s not something is amiss. The weather and ammo excuses don’t really stand up to scrutiny (what’s changed in 2 weeks?!) I’m starting to think the Ukrainians are nowhere near strong enough now to launch a proper counteroffensive given the Russians have had so much time to entrench and fortify. Classic looking stalemate to me (and it could have been so different last Autumn)
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