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Post by musik on Apr 3, 2023 17:44:50 GMT
Not much on the tv news here today about this. I find it strange. Did the news spend a lot of time on your neighbour's election? The results were so close I know American news channels would have covered it wall-to-wall if they knew about Finland... And not much dynamic and news-grabbing in Ukraine recently either. Some about the election in Finland. 21% LiberalConservative 20% Nationalists 19% SocialDemocrats Liberal Center Party ?% (-3.5%) The Green Party ?% (-3.5%) No Communists ?
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 3, 2023 18:30:11 GMT
Russia apparently reshuffling its Generals again which is usually a good sign in that they have underperformed
Airforce commander being relieved and the Colonel General in the Eastern theatre Musarev (sp?)
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Post by wannabee on Apr 3, 2023 19:19:17 GMT
Rosneftegaz is the Russian Government owned Holding Company for ALL Russian Oil and Gas Russia has the largest Gas Reserves, second largest Coal Reserve and 6th Largest Oil Reserves in the World In theory some Oligarchs own "Paper Shares" in Gas but none in Oil. In reality one man Putin decides how all the cash is divide up and if an Oligarch pisses Putin off if they don't fall out of a Window their "Shares" revert back to Putin/Government By means of Jiggery-Pokery Accounting the Accounts of Rosneftegaz are "made up" with "Tax" being a balancing figure. If anyone is trying to work out the "Production Costs" in a Traditional sense they are wasting their time. In theory they should be minimal. Wages could be zero if Putin decrees it so. Repairs and Maintenance obviously of the pipelines. Transportation possibly depending if buyer or seller picks up the cost, same with Insurance. $30/$40 Production Costs are fanciful because its just passing cash from the right hand to the left hand of the same person.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 3, 2023 20:15:34 GMT
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Post by wannabee on Apr 3, 2023 21:37:49 GMT
Absolutely disgusting and I'm sure it's purpose is to weaken Ukraine resolve But before you get off your high horse spare a thought for the hundreds of thousands of British Children forcibly removed from their families, told there parents were dead and were then subjected to years of sexual and other abuse in many cases. To my knowledge not one person has been named and shamed never mind been subject to a UK or Hague Court A few Politicians have said sorry, so that's OK www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/27/britains-child-migrant-programme-why-130000-children-were-shipped-abroadMany of the worst Russian practices being used are learned behaviours from the "West" including the Wagner recruiting methods first used by US Army in first Gulf War
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 3, 2023 22:27:33 GMT
This map looks like others from good sources. They all expect Ukraine to fall back west to that dashed blue area.
Not sure why they'd do it immediately though? There are still tall buildings to defend east of there where they can hurt Wagner.
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Post by southstanddan on Apr 4, 2023 7:26:10 GMT
Absolutely disgusting and I'm sure it's purpose is to weaken Ukraine resolve But before you get off your high horse spare a thought for the hundreds of thousands of British Children forcibly removed from their families, told there parents were dead and were then subjected to years of sexual and other abuse in many cases. To my knowledge not one person has been named and shamed never mind been subject to a UK or Hague Court A few Politicians have said sorry, so that's OK www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/27/britains-child-migrant-programme-why-130000-children-were-shipped-abroadMany of the worst Russian practices being used are learned behaviours from the "West" including the Wagner recruiting methods first used by US Army in first Gulf War What a ridiculous comment. I’m sure once a British person murdered someone, does that mean we can’t condemn a murder.
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Post by wannabee on Apr 4, 2023 8:58:16 GMT
Absolutely disgusting and I'm sure it's purpose is to weaken Ukraine resolve But before you get off your high horse spare a thought for the hundreds of thousands of British Children forcibly removed from their families, told there parents were dead and were then subjected to years of sexual and other abuse in many cases. To my knowledge not one person has been named and shamed never mind been subject to a UK or Hague Court A few Politicians have said sorry, so that's OK www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/27/britains-child-migrant-programme-why-130000-children-were-shipped-abroadMany of the worst Russian practices being used are learned behaviours from the "West" including the Wagner recruiting methods first used by US Army in first Gulf War What a ridiculous comment. I’m sure once a British person murdered someone, does that mean we can’t condemn a murder. What a ridiculous reply Tell me where I didn't condemn this behaviour as "absolutely disgusting"?
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 4, 2023 19:26:51 GMT
Putin and many Russian defense analysts must be feeling a little stupid as Finland todays joins NATO as the 31st member as a direct result of Russian aggression
Putin has directly achieved the complete opposite of what his war intended.
Does Russian placing nukes in Belarus make the slightest difference, if he’s going to launch nukes does it matter a whit if they’re launched from Minsk or Moscow.
He’s created a complete shit show of his own making
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Post by butlerstbob on Apr 4, 2023 21:18:02 GMT
Putin and many Russian defense analysts must be feeling a little stupid as Finland todays joins NATO as the 31st member as a direct result of Russian aggression Putin has directly achieved the complete opposite of what his war intended. Does Russian placing nukes in Belarus make the slightest difference, if he’s going to launch nukes does it matter a whit if they’re launched from Minsk or Moscow. He’s created a complete shit show of his own making The Russians were last week telling the world they had nukes that could reach and wipe out the USA...so if that IS true then why the need to move these nukes to Belarus? It's all bluster as per from them!
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Post by hcstokie on Apr 5, 2023 6:37:08 GMT
This map looks like others from good sources. They all expect Ukraine to fall back west to that dashed blue area. Not sure why they'd do it immediately though? There are still tall buildings to defend east of there where they can hurt Wagner. I suspect it’s because Russia are peeling them away from the river to the north and south, making it easier for reinforcements to be thrown at the defenders. The last thing they’d want would be for the forces there to be encircled to the west and pinned against the river. Not sure if they’ll withdraw immediately but I’d imagine it would be soon. All eyes now are on when Ukraine will counter.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 5, 2023 13:38:22 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 5, 2023 20:29:56 GMT
Interviews with Ukraine's Offensive Guard. Claims 40,000 volunteers, plus there are the territorials and professional army brigades. This is obvious Ukrainian propaganda, but I'm convinced that Ukraine has the reserves to at least start a serious attack.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 5, 2023 21:29:47 GMT
How much ammo does each side have?Answer: we don't know but the Russians are shooting less than before and Western factories will soon produce enough for Ukraine to shoot more than it has been.
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Post by adri2008 on Apr 6, 2023 7:09:17 GMT
I still think a war of attrition suits Russia in the long run purely as they have more men to put in the grinder - even if they suffer more casualties, Ukrainian reserves aren't unlimited and at some point, counter offensives won't be feasible. A deal will no doubt be made, probably accepting the loss of Crimea and some sort of autonomous agreement for Donbas/Luhansk?
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Post by OldStokie on Apr 6, 2023 13:41:38 GMT
I still think a war of attrition suits Russia in the long run purely as they have more men to put in the grinder - even if they suffer more casualties, Ukrainian reserves aren't unlimited and at some point, counter offensives won't be feasible. A deal will no doubt be made, probably accepting the loss of Crimea and some sort of autonomous agreement for Donbas/Luhansk? I think we're entering a critical stage in this war and if a deal is done it will depend on how well the counter-offensive by UKR does. Like Russia, UKR is telling us very little about the counter-offensive. And I'm pretty sure UKR are spreading propaganda when they complain about how much tackle and men they have in readiness. The defence of Bakhmut is serving a valuable purpose. No way would the UKR have taken so many casualties in that horrible battle to protect a town that has very little strategic interest simply for defending it's sake. They've lost a lot of lesser able soldiers while regrouping their best men and equipment in the background. With the new tanks and artillary and long-range shells and planes and drones they've gathered over the winter, I'm thinking the top brains of UKR and NATO might even do a 'blitzkrieg' down to Crimea and then drive north and south after they cut off the supply routes from Crimea. They could also destroy the bridge from Russia to Crimea completely with the new long range artillary and accurate shells. Well, I hope that's what they'll do. The alternative is that the counter-offensive fails and they'll be forced to fight a long, unwinnable war or cede land to the Russians to come to a peace deal. OS.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 6, 2023 14:32:58 GMT
Videos of Bakhmut supply roads. Ukraine has lost at least 1 tank, 1 BTR-4 vehicle and 5 APCs/trucks and I saw some crazy footage of them driving supply cars at 100 mph into the city. It's been very, very painful in Bakhmut. The BTR-4 is supposedly one of the best vehicles in the war, so losing that + the tank is bad. But the APCs are pretty easily replaced (Ukraine has been given 1k+ already?) and so long as they save the soldiers it's ok I think.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 6, 2023 14:43:05 GMT
I still think a war of attrition suits Russia in the long run purely as they have more men to put in the grinder - even if they suffer more casualties, Ukrainian reserves aren't unlimited and at some point, counter offensives won't be feasible. A deal will no doubt be made, probably accepting the loss of Crimea and some sort of autonomous agreement for Donbas/Luhansk? I think we're entering a critical stage in this war and if a deal is done it will depend on how well the counter-offensive by UKR does. Like Russia, UKR is telling us very little about the counter-offensive. And I'm pretty sure UKR are spreading propaganda when they complain about how much tackle and men they have in readiness. The defence of Bakhmut is serving a valuable purpose. No way would the UKR have taken so many casualties in that horrible battle to protect a town that has very little strategic interest simply for defending it's sake. They've lost a lot of lesser able soldiers while regrouping their best men and equipment in the background. With the new tanks and artillary and long-range shells and planes and drones they've gathered over the winter, I'm thinking the top brains of UKR and NATO might even do a 'blitzkrieg' down to Crimea and then drive north and south after they cut off the supply routes from Crimea. They could also destroy the bridge from Russia to Crimea completely with the new long range artillary and accurate shells. Well, I hope that's what they'll do. The alternative is that the counter-offensive fails and they'll be forced to fight a long, unwinnable war or cede land to the Russians to come to a peace deal. OS. A siege of Crimea certainly makes more sense than going in straight away if they can get there. Cut the landbridge. Cut the canal that supplies water to Crimea. Then blow the bridge up. All massive ifs and Russia knows that this is likely the plan.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 6, 2023 18:36:31 GMT
Seeing rumours from a reasonable source that the final "good" line of defence in Bakhmut could be breached.
Media blackout so we don't know, and it seems to say fighting is still happening, but if true then it could be the endgame as Ukraine starts to withdraw.
Could be bad info, but things are truly bad in Bakhmut and Ukraine has already held 2 months longer than I expected tbh.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 6, 2023 20:08:36 GMT
Another character reference for Hersh.
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Post by hcstokie on Apr 6, 2023 20:25:49 GMT
Seeing rumours from a reasonable source that the final "good" line of defence in Bakhmut could be breached. Media blackout so we don't know, and it seems to say fighting is still happening, but if true then it could be the endgame as Ukraine starts to withdraw. Could be bad info, but things are truly bad in Bakhmut and Ukraine has already held 2 months longer than I expected tbh. The defence of Bakhmut has been heroic. Time will tell whether the effort of grinding and pinning down Russian forces has been worth it. In my opinion it has as those extra 2-3 months have bought extra time to train Ukrainian troop and deliver new equipment. The important issue should Ukraine withdraw from Bakhmut is whether the Ukrainian counter is launched before Russia can reposition its troops in defence.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 6, 2023 20:46:05 GMT
Seeing rumours from a reasonable source that the final "good" line of defence in Bakhmut could be breached. Media blackout so we don't know, and it seems to say fighting is still happening, but if true then it could be the endgame as Ukraine starts to withdraw. Could be bad info, but things are truly bad in Bakhmut and Ukraine has already held 2 months longer than I expected tbh. The defence of Bakhmut has been heroic. Time will tell whether the effort of grinding and pinning down Russian forces has been worth it. In my opinion it has as those extra 2-3 months have bought extra time to train Ukrainian troop and deliver new equipment. The important issue should Ukraine withdraw from Bakhmut is whether the Ukrainian counter is launched before Russia can reposition its troops in defence. I’m still not convinced, I see a source today (albeit a Russian installed official) claim that Ukraine has lost between 15-20k men in the battle for Bakhmut. From my layman’s armchair it looked like the wrong call. It’s clearly not border guards defending either, they have sent elite units too. Ukraine should have been armed much earlier and then last years victories could have become a rout. Russia has now dig in and will be hard to dislodge
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 7, 2023 20:57:44 GMT
Lavrov says Russia ready to negotiate to end the conflict but based “on the new realities that have developed…”
What are they?
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Post by lordb on Apr 7, 2023 21:10:51 GMT
Lavrov says Russia ready to negotiate to end the conflict but based “on the new realities that have developed…” What are they? The reality that Russia can't win the war
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 7, 2023 22:06:25 GMT
Headline from a great YouTube video. Lad got new satellite photos and tried to work out which types of tank Russia's stored. I think this is the *maximum* possible number because he assumed garages were pretty full, and lots of those that look like a tank from space will actually be wrecks. Russia has pulled out ~1,500 so far. Would think they probably pulled out the best condition ones first?
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Apr 8, 2023 7:50:20 GMT
It was never about Nato expansion. Only ill informed Putin sympathisers in the West bought into such nonsense. This is about the past and Putin's bizarre ideology of reclaiming former territory.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 8, 2023 7:57:18 GMT
It was never about Nato expansion. Only ill informed Putin sympathisers in the West bought into such nonsense. This is about the past and Putin's bizarre ideology of reclaiming it's former territory. And there are loads of them around.
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Post by questionable on Apr 8, 2023 8:00:35 GMT
It was never about Nato expansion. Only ill informed Putin sympathisers in the West bought into such nonsense. This is about the past and Putin's bizarre ideology of reclaiming it's former territory. And the vast amounts of Ukrainian exports to the west.
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Post by musik on Apr 8, 2023 9:14:58 GMT
In Sweden our media (tv, radio, papers) focus on Medvedev, the guy who are said to have escaped to Norway from the Wagner group. He applied for asylum but went on a trip to Sweden and Gothenburg yesterday for some tobacco, since he found out the prices were lower here.
His attorney today says he's sorry, he didn't know about the rules.
He has been shown in all angles on tv and in the papers and with his first name and surname.
🤔 😁
Is this guy Andrej Medvedev on the news in England too?
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Apr 8, 2023 15:35:57 GMT
Again be wary of the sources, but Russians stating Leopard tanks not fit for purpose and are being fitted with additional Russian kontakt armour.
Apparently photos doing the rounds back this up.
Coupled with the MIGs they recently received being able to fly but not combat worthy!! What a joke! The more of this you see you really have to wonder does the West have an interest in a long drawn out conflict.
Numerous opportunities to arm the Ukrainians properly spurned
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