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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 23, 2023 17:44:31 GMT
Good news for China
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 23, 2023 18:44:44 GMT
😂😂😂🤦♂️
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 23, 2023 18:59:41 GMT
Bloody hell. The Ukrainian general staff usually wait days until things are certain before announcing, so you can trust it.
I wonder if it was just a troop rotation.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 23, 2023 20:20:59 GMT
This is amusing
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 23, 2023 21:07:27 GMT
Ukrainian unit claims it destroyed 14 Russian tanks in 5 days, has videos.
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Post by questionable on Mar 23, 2023 21:55:53 GMT
Lots of similar stories doing the rounds
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 23, 2023 23:31:51 GMT
Flying a drone right into a tank hatch
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Post by questionable on Mar 24, 2023 16:01:26 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 24, 2023 16:20:11 GMT
Stories of 80-200k Ukrainian reserves I've only traced back to people quoting Wagner boss Prigozhin. I ignore his "facts" until there's a real source. But: why is he saying this? I think he's preparing excuses for failure or to make victories look more impressive.
The Wagner propaganda channel months ago posted maps claiming that Ukraine had 20+ full brigades in Bakhmut and I think for the same reason. There weren't 20+ full brigades!
That said, those numbers may be the army group+territorials for such a big front.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Mar 24, 2023 21:07:56 GMT
Don’t see much condemnation of the murder of Russian POWs by Ukrainian armed forces or are we only outraged by Russian atrocities
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Mar 24, 2023 21:11:14 GMT
That ex President Medvedev seems to be a simple windbag.
Saying on one hand that Russia will continue onto Kiev if necessary to achieve their objectives but on the other if Ukraine takes Crimea then Russia will use nukes. I would have thought they are mutually exclusive!
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 24, 2023 22:50:35 GMT
Don’t see much condemnation of the murder of Russian POWs by Ukrainian armed forces or are we only outraged by Russian atrocities Abuse of prisoners has to stop and perpetrators need bringing to justice. Hopefully the Ukrainian investigations of their alleged abuses will not be buried. I think it's important not to "both sides" this in a way that makes it seem like there is anything like equality of evil though. Ukrainian command has been clear about following the rules for POWs, while Russian command supports, rewards and covers it up. That probably explains why Russia didn't allow access to its torture camps and released Ukrainian soldiers (and civilians) almost universally report abuse. Unlike Russian POWs, whom Ukraine gave access to.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 25, 2023 20:55:50 GMT
Our MoD says Russia's attack on Bakhmut has "largely stalled". There's a news blackout but it really sounds like Russia is much weaker near Bakhmut. I watched an update with a stats guy and a Ukrainian combat veteran who's now delivering equipment. The northern flank is open fields next to a lake/reservoir where Russian meat waves have failed every day for a week+. Russia is fighting through the city and the video lads expect an industrial zone to fall soon, but Ukraine's solid defence is further back so they aren't worried. They do seem concerned about a school near a famous monument of a fighter jet - if that falls the noose is tighter again. Can you imagine if that happened to us and we were basically relying on the army to hold St Thomas' in Kidsgrove as it gets shot at by rockets every day...
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 26, 2023 3:13:11 GMT
New Nord Stream article!A Russian ship called SS-750 disappeared from port days before the Nord Stream explosions. Its tugs sailed towards the sabotage point, but turned off their ID beacons once they were most of the way there. The timing seems to fit going to Nord Stream and back while avoiding western radars and hiding from the USS Kearage. At the time Russia was doing naval drills and boasting about all the ships involved - they didn't mention SS-750. SS-750 carries a deep sea rescue sub. Hmmm.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Mar 26, 2023 7:55:44 GMT
Do we know what actually came of the Putin/China meet last week? Or has nothing been released?
The idea of an attack on Crimea is an interesting one and it does show how confident Ukraine must be feeling to be in a position where they dont see themselves as spreading too thinly in an attempt to reclaim Crimea.
Fascinating to see how Putin would respond. He cannot even allow such an attempt to take place back home so will no doubt want the rest of the world to think he will go nuclear, which in turn, wouldn't go down well with China.
Maybe it's just media propaganda to deflect from other Ukrainian targets.
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Post by lordb on Mar 26, 2023 8:52:41 GMT
Do we know what actually came of the Putin/China meet last week? Or has nothing been released? The idea of an attack on Crimea is an interesting one and it does show how confident Ukraine must be feeling to be in a position where they dont see themselves as spreading too thinly in an attempt to reclaim Crimea. Fascinating to see how Putin would respond. He cannot even allow such an attempt to take place back home so will no doubt want the rest of the world to think he will go nuclear, which in turn, wouldn't go down well with China. Maybe it's just media propaganda to deflect from other Ukrainian targets. Retaking Crimea if it came off would surely be a tipping point Anti Putin sentiment within the Russian army may feel emboldened at that point for a coup
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Mar 26, 2023 9:01:50 GMT
Do we know what actually came of the Putin/China meet last week? Or has nothing been released? The idea of an attack on Crimea is an interesting one and it does show how confident Ukraine must be feeling to be in a position where they dont see themselves as spreading too thinly in an attempt to reclaim Crimea. Fascinating to see how Putin would respond. He cannot even allow such an attempt to take place back home so will no doubt want the rest of the world to think he will go nuclear, which in turn, wouldn't go down well with China. Maybe it's just media propaganda to deflect from other Ukrainian targets. Retaking Crimea if it came off would surely be a tipping point Anti Putin sentiment within the Russian army may feel emboldened at that point for a coup Indeed. There will be some good men being forced to fight for Putin and they will be desperate for this to end. But understandably, they can only fight back against their dictator when they feel confident they won't be murdered for doing so. It's now obvious that Putin is losing and will lose the war. The only thing he can do is bring others with him, and the only way he can do that is either via use of nuclear weapons or via China's support. Any use of the former almost certainly rules out the latter. Putin is a threat to all of us while he's still alive and unfortunately there is going to be a lot more suffering on both sides yet. But it definitely now feels like Ukraine and the West has total control of the war. Europe needs to brace itself for the next phase though because it's going to be carnage, with or without an attack on Crimea. The Ukraine spring offensive feels like it's coming!
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Post by lordb on Mar 26, 2023 9:05:42 GMT
Retaking Crimea if it came off would surely be a tipping point Anti Putin sentiment within the Russian army may feel emboldened at that point for a coup Indeed. There will be some good men being forced to fight for Putin and they will be desperate for this to end. But understandably, they can only fight back against their dictator when they feel confident they won't be murdered for doing so. It's now obvious that Putin is losing and will lose the war. The only thing he can do is bring others with him, and the only way he can do that is either via use of nuclear weapons or via China's support. Any use of the former almost certainly rules out the latter. Putin is a threat to all of us while he's still alive and unfortunately there is going to be a lot more suffering on both sides yet. But it definitely now feels like Ukraine and the West has total control of the war. Europe needs to brace itself for the next phase though because it's going to be carnage, with or without an attack on Crimea. The Ukraine spring offensive feels like it's coming! Suspect it will be 'bad men' who force Putin out tbh.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Mar 26, 2023 9:09:06 GMT
Indeed. There will be some good men being forced to fight for Putin and they will be desperate for this to end. But understandably, they can only fight back against their dictator when they feel confident they won't be murdered for doing so. It's now obvious that Putin is losing and will lose the war. The only thing he can do is bring others with him, and the only way he can do that is either via use of nuclear weapons or via China's support. Any use of the former almost certainly rules out the latter. Putin is a threat to all of us while he's still alive and unfortunately there is going to be a lot more suffering on both sides yet. But it definitely now feels like Ukraine and the West has total control of the war. Europe needs to brace itself for the next phase though because it's going to be carnage, with or without an attack on Crimea. The Ukraine spring offensive feels like it's coming! Suspect it will be 'bad men' who force Putin out tbh. Suspect you're right. And then I suppose we're into discussions of "is his replacement even worse".
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Post by musik on Mar 26, 2023 9:58:15 GMT
Do we know what actually came of the Putin/China meet last week? Or has nothing been released? It surely must have been said on the news? 🤔
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Post by OldStokie on Mar 26, 2023 11:49:02 GMT
Suspect it will be 'bad men' who force Putin out tbh. Suspect you're right. And then I suppose we're into discussions of "is his replacement even worse". It could be the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, if he goes rogue? He seems to attract (forcibly or otherwise) the scum of Russia and it's acolytes and could stage a coup against what will be left of the Russian conscripts. Each day I'm expecting to see that he's been liquidated in an 'accident'. OS.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 26, 2023 20:41:33 GMT
Ukraine's "Kraken" unit show another video. Their older videos are just amazing. This new one is shorter but shows how thermal drones affect the battlefield.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 26, 2023 20:43:26 GMT
Do we know what actually came of the Putin/China meet last week? Or has nothing been released? It surely must have been said on the news? 🤔 Lots of news but I don't think any of the journalists were in the room with Putin and Xi! EU intel folks and all the "experts" seem to think Putin didn't get what he wanted, and supposedly Xi made it really clear that Russia can't use a nuke. Could just be propaganda, but the official announcements gave Putin nothing.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 27, 2023 0:31:10 GMT
Yes indeed that is one option, I thought though the Russians had changed tactics and were digging/preparing fortifications as they advanced now. Also won’t Russia be easily able to replace those losses with conscripted soldiers (who have now had some time to at least get some basic training) What force is Ukraine preparing, new soldiers (won’t they be less prepared) or new equipment (unlikely that will be decisive given the quantity mooted) I’m still convinced that it suits the West for this to drag on as a slow bloody inefficient stalemate. From my layman’s viewpoint the Ukrainians have made a mistake here in taking so many casualties but time will tell. Seeing some people joining my "side" on the Bakhmut argument this week. This bloke's video is great IMO and the main bit is 8:20-9:20. Two of the lads I trust the most haven't changed though - they still suggest sticking around was a mistake. One of my thoughts was Putin will attack as long as he can, and would keep losing more troops. A withdrawal would have let the Russians claim victory then stop and dig in, which would be terrible for Ukraine's counteroffensive.
Now that it looks like the Ukrainians won't get trapped easily, have you changed your mind a bit? I'm a little more confident but still very far from sure. Like you said - time will tell.
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Post by questionable on Mar 27, 2023 7:39:06 GMT
Yes indeed that is one option, I thought though the Russians had changed tactics and were digging/preparing fortifications as they advanced now. Also won’t Russia be easily able to replace those losses with conscripted soldiers (who have now had some time to at least get some basic training) What force is Ukraine preparing, new soldiers (won’t they be less prepared) or new equipment (unlikely that will be decisive given the quantity mooted) I’m still convinced that it suits the West for this to drag on as a slow bloody inefficient stalemate. From my layman’s viewpoint the Ukrainians have made a mistake here in taking so many casualties but time will tell. Seeing some people joining my "side" on the Bakhmut argument this week. This bloke's video is great IMO and the main bit is 8:20-9:20. Two of the lads I trust the most haven't changed though - they still suggest sticking around was a mistake. One of my thoughts was Putin will attack as long as he can, and would keep losing more troops. A withdrawal would have let the Russians claim victory then stop and dig in, which would be terrible for Ukraine's counteroffensive.
Now that it looks like the Ukrainians won't get trapped easily, have you changed your mind a bit? I'm a little more confident but still very far from sure. Like you said - time will tell.
More reliable sources are suggesting that despite Russia pouring massive resources into Bakhmut they’ve only taken an additional 10% of the area. Zelenksy seems to have top advisors, USA/NATO advice and more importantly local eyes everywhere, foresee massive Ukrainian gains in the coming weeks.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 27, 2023 17:08:14 GMT
Seeing some people joining my "side" on the Bakhmut argument this week. This bloke's video is great IMO and the main bit is 8:20-9:20. Two of the lads I trust the most haven't changed though - they still suggest sticking around was a mistake. One of my thoughts was Putin will attack as long as he can, and would keep losing more troops. A withdrawal would have let the Russians claim victory then stop and dig in, which would be terrible for Ukraine's counteroffensive. Now that it looks like the Ukrainians won't get trapped easily, have you changed your mind a bit? I'm a little more confident but still very far from sure. Like you said - time will tell.
More reliable sources are suggesting that despite Russia pouring massive resources into Bakhmut they’ve only taken an additional 10% of the area. Zelenksy seems to have top advisors, USA/NATO advice and more importantly local eyes everywhere, foresee massive Ukrainian gains in the coming weeks. Let's come back to this in a few months but my guess is that we'd be very lucky to see a major Ukrainian breakthrough, even by early summer. I think Ukraine's only successful attacks have involved trained, motivated soldiers with good equipment and surprise (Kharkiv) or strangling supply lines (Kyiv, Kherson). If Ukraine goes south then that's miles of trenches and minefields under Russian artillery. That looks a lot like Kherson, where the campaign ground on for months. Maybe there's a special surprise, e.g. Ukraine has accurate maps of all the minefields and found a way through? Or has secret stockpiles of radars and precision weapons to snipe Russian artillery en masse? I want to believe, we'll have to wait and see! I'm pretty sure I didn't believe the Kharkiv counteroffensive was possible before it happened.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 27, 2023 17:16:14 GMT
Recruitment to [Ukraine's] Offensive Guard is nearing completion, with over 16,000 applications receivedA kind of "attacking" TA. The "newly formed Offensive Guard assault brigades will train for a total of two to four months before being deployed". So ready around August? Apparently mobilised soldiers will defend trenches ok but plenty of them just don't have the balls to do the insane shit you need for attacking breakthroughs. So Ukraine just wants units full of brave volunteers to push through when the going gets really tough. They say they'll reject plenty of applications, so it'll probably be quite a lot fewer than 16k.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 27, 2023 19:08:00 GMT
This is exciting!
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Mar 27, 2023 19:18:25 GMT
Yes indeed that is one option, I thought though the Russians had changed tactics and were digging/preparing fortifications as they advanced now. Also won’t Russia be easily able to replace those losses with conscripted soldiers (who have now had some time to at least get some basic training) What force is Ukraine preparing, new soldiers (won’t they be less prepared) or new equipment (unlikely that will be decisive given the quantity mooted) I’m still convinced that it suits the West for this to drag on as a slow bloody inefficient stalemate. From my layman’s viewpoint the Ukrainians have made a mistake here in taking so many casualties but time will tell. Seeing some people joining my "side" on the Bakhmut argument this week. This bloke's video is great IMO and the main bit is 8:20-9:20. Two of the lads I trust the most haven't changed though - they still suggest sticking around was a mistake. One of my thoughts was Putin will attack as long as he can, and would keep losing more troops. A withdrawal would have let the Russians claim victory then stop and dig in, which would be terrible for Ukraine's counteroffensive.
Now that it looks like the Ukrainians won't get trapped easily, have you changed your mind a bit? I'm a little more confident but still very far from sure. Like you said - time will tell.
Ukraine kept saying that Bakhmut was of little strategic importance, but potentially allowed themselves to get overrun. Only time will tell but I still think it was a mistake as they appear to have lost some elite soldiers and not just border guards and manpower is critical/precious for Ukraine. It’s great that Bakhmut hasn’t fallen and given Russia a bit of a propaganda victory but I hope that the defence of Bakhmut was based on sound military judgement and not some Zelenskyy vanity project
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 27, 2023 19:47:58 GMT
Forecast. Green is when heavy vehicles can move offroad without getting stuck in mud. 2-3 weeks away from Ukraine's first possible targets in the South being dry enough. Exact date depends on how heavy rain is.
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