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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 1, 2022 7:17:08 GMT
An update by John Parshall.
Ukraine Update. Normal disclaimer: WW2 historian using analogs from that war to explore this one. What do I want to talk about today? Two things: First, what is the point of the fighting in Bakhmut? And second, the long-term sustainability of the current artillery war (parts of which it looks like I was wrong about.)
There hasn't been a lot of movement on the lines recently, and my sense is that Ukraine is continuing to shape the battlefield and wait for the ground to freeze before doing... whatever it's gonna be doing. But those of you who have subs to the New York Times will have noticed an article there in the past couple days talking about the very heavy ongoing fighting around Bakhmut. It has become a case study in the Russians using recently-mobilized conscript fodder to assault dug-in Ukrainian defenses, and the result has been a sort of mini-version of WWI-style trench warfare.
From Ukraine's perspective, holding Bakhmut makes a great deal of sense. Clearly, if you have an opportunity to establish wildly asymmetrical casualty returns because the other guy insists on frontally attacking some of the most elaborately prepared, and well-established defensive systems in your entire country, well, logically speaking you should afford your hated enemy all the head-bashing opportunities he desires. Be my guest.
The Russian logic, though, is far less clear. Understand--and with all due respect to the (formerly, I'm sure) lovely small city of Bakhmut--it is Nowheresville strategically. Yeah, there's a railway running through it, but it's not a major communications node, or port, or river crossing, or something like that. It theoretically gives access to the more important towns of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk to the northwest. But the Russians lost any possibility of developing a larger pincer attack aimed at enveloping Ukraine's position in the Donbas when they lost the much more important rail hubs of Izyum and (especially) Lyman during the Kharkiv counteroffensive back in September. So, honestly, Bakhmut no longer fits into any sort of strategic whole. Or, put another way, it simply ain't worth the number of Russian lives they're throwing away to secure gains that are being measured in yards. So wtf is going on here?
My sense is there are a number of factors at work. First, Bakhmut is closely associated with alleged human being Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his Wagner PMC band of thugs and assorted criminals. Prigozhin is pretty obviously building his own political power base inside Russia and positioning himself in case anything... unfortunate... should befall a certain guy whose last name also starts with 'P'. So, it would behoove Prigozhin to have his name associated with having taken Bakhmut.
Putin, for his part, may be becoming more wary of Prigozhin (as well he should). But he is also somewhat behold to him, because Wagner has at least been making incremental gains. The bottom line is that Putin is *desperate* for something, *anything,* that smells even faintly like "victory(tm)" to offset the recent humiliations of Kharkiv and (particularly) Kherson.
As such, this battle seems to have taken on a self-fulfilling symbolic life of its own, one that transcends strategy or logic. It has some echoes of Stalingrad, where one dictator wanted the place because it was the consolation prize for a failed summer campaign that had not bagged the oil fields in the Caucasus, and the *other* dictator kinda couldn't afford to give it up, because his name was quite literally 'on the box.' Bakhmut is 'vital' to Putin because, well, he's been fighting for it for months and visibly hasn't gotten it yet. And having expended this many lives for it, well, sunk cost be damned.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, beyond simply wanting to bleed the Russians dry, also want to prove that it doesn't matter what the Russians throw at them, that they're simply better than their enemy, and they can hold the place. The result is what one British newspaper just recently labeled 'the new Passchendaele', complete with trench foot, mud, mass slaughter, and artillery-generated moonscapes.
Generating those moonscapes is chewing up a lot of arty ammo. And here's a sobering thing that a number of you may have also seen recently in the New York Times: the looming possibility of a 155mm shell shortage. Honestly, I didn't think this was possible. You'll remember me opining several months ago that once we had switched Ukraine over to NATO-standard 155mm arty systems, that the magic NATO logistical carpet would then supply them effortlessly from the essentially endless river of NATO shells. Turns out that that was perhaps over-optimistic (i.e. I was wrong). In fact, the Ukrainians are chewing through so many 155mm shells (up to 4000 a day) that 1) they're wearing out the barrels of their shiny new howitzers in record time, and 2) NATO is scrambling to figure out how to generate a long-term sustainable supply of shells. Item #1 is a problem, but it can be dealt with by depots in Poland. Artillery systems are built to have barrels either completely changed out or re-lined, or whatever. That's a known issue, and it appears we're keeping up with demand--probably by giving the Ukrainians more of *our* barrels, because we can take the time to then refurb them on our end.
Shells, though, is starting to look more problematic, because some people are saying that it may take 4-5 *years* to increase production to sufficient levels. My MBA is in Operations Management, and I take a keen interest in manufacturing and economic history in my WWII writings. On the face of it, that figure of 4-5 years to turn up the spigot just seems... wrong. I mean, yeah, I grant that even a modern 155mm "dumb" shell is a little more sophisticated than the stuff Grandpa was using in WWII. And so increasing production may require more sophisticated components, and blah blah blah. But 4-5 years? Really?!? I don't really buy it, honestly.
I could be wrong, but to me, this smells like one of those issues that if you're willing to throw enough money and ingenious people at the problem, you ought to be able to solve it a lot more quickly. I mean, maybe make Elon Musk go sleep on some General Dynamics shell factory floor somewhere and get that shit sorted out, so that he can finally do something more meaningful with his precious time other than trying to pretend he's slinging code at Twitter, k? Or just send a genuinely good manager instead. I dunno. And again, I could be totally wrong and just not understand the underlying complexity. But since it's clear that we're going to have to massively increase NATO shell stocks across the board anyway, well, now is probably a good time to solve this problem. It's not like there aren't a large number of NATO countries that *all* manufacture these things, fer cryin' out loud. Plus, South Korea is 1) also a major shell manufacturer and 2) has a vested interest in selling a crapton of ammo to go along with the hundreds of K-9 155mm self-propelled arty systems that they've just sold to Poland. So I dunno. But I do know we've got to get it sorted. So put your heads together, oh Merchants of Death(tm)! Sheesh! What do we pay you for?!?
The good news here is that the Russians are likely in just as bad, or even worse, shape than we are. Russian ammo expenditures were *phenomenally* heavy this summer, before tapering way down more recently. Think they've got problems with barrel wear on their end? Jeebus. Plus, there are reports that nearly 20% of Russian shells are just plain duds, likely due to crappy manufacturinng and/or equally crappy storage practices. Judging from what we've seen of Russian armor, I think the latter is certainly quite likely.
Furthermore, there are reports that the Russians have been forced to buy arty shells from North Korea, a country whose own manufacturing standards aren't exactly, shall we say, Six Sigma. Want to guess which shells the NKs are shoveling onto those Russian trains? Think that maybe their oldest, crappiest stocks are going to be showing up in UKR soon? That's my bet. Want to guess what *their* dud rate will be? Were those 50-year old munitions (or more!) stored in climate-controlled warehouses and meticulously maintained during their lifetime? If your answer was 'Yes', I have some real estate in Brooklyn I'd like to talk to you about...
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 1, 2022 15:16:58 GMT
Today is the 31st anniversary of Ukraine voting to be independent. Every region had a majority vote for Ukraine.
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Post by Veritas on Dec 1, 2022 15:47:56 GMT
Today is the 31st anniversary of Ukraine voting to be independent. Every region had a majority vote for Ukraine. Very important point, even Crimea with it's largely Russian speaking population.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 1, 2022 16:42:32 GMT
An update by John Parshall. Furthermore, there are reports that the Russians have been forced to buy arty shells from North Korea, a country whose own manufacturing standards aren't exactly, shall we say, Six Sigma. Want to guess which shells the NKs are shoveling onto those Russian trains? Think that maybe their oldest, crappiest stocks are going to be showing up in UKR soon? That's my bet. Want to guess what *their* dud rate will be? Were those 50-year old munitions (or more!) stored in climate-controlled warehouses and meticulously maintained during their lifetime? If your answer was 'Yes', I have some real estate in Brooklyn I'd like to talk to you about... Re: Bakhmut, I've seen other arguments that sort of make sense. Here's my update based on reading other folks who've been pretty smart so far. 1. Russian leaders want to show it can attack somewhere. 2. Russia also wants to suck in Ukrainian forces to buy time to train 200k+ Russian mobilised 3. Russia can't afford to keep losing tanks and planes like it has, so it has to be infantry + artillery heavy (plus it's too muddy right now) 4. It can't cross the Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia is too open and would risk loads of vehicles, northern Luhansk doesn't have a good rail network to supply artillery. That leaves... 5. A line through Donetsk region up to Bilohorivka. Russia is attacking heavily near Bakhmut and Avdiivka using human waves. Those are the areas where Russia can supply artillery and use human shields to protect them so it's hard for Ukraine to fight back. 6. Ukraine is setting up to threaten either northern Luhansk or Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia so it's holding some guns back (if it has them). Bakhmut is one place Russia has a big artillery advantage. 7. Putin could think that losing 3-5 mobilised Russians and Ukrainians to kill a free Ukrainian is a win. Especially if Bakhmut supply routes are cut and Ukraine has to pull it's artillery back further... The people talking about this have been pretty spot on so far. And they're not saying it's a sensible strategy, just trying to make sense from the Russian PoV.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 2, 2022 3:00:43 GMT
Something to come back to in a few days. If you're not following the details: every single day there are loads of claims like this. I thought it would be worth sharing one so we can all see later. A trustworthy source has been saying that Russian bombers have been moving around like they did before the last major attacks, so there's a tiny bit of real evidence for this claim. It's a few days on and still no massive strike. There probably will be more but remember this next time you hear "Belarus will invade soon" or "Russia will attack Kyiv next Tuesday!" Almost nobody knows all the details so we should be really careful believing things.
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Post by mrcoke on Dec 2, 2022 20:41:36 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 4, 2022 15:32:54 GMT
This being shared by Russians. That's what happens to innocent civilians where Russia is allowed to occupy.
We don't know these were real cases by Russians, but I got it originally from a Russian telegram channel that was loving it. They did the same sorry of shit everywhere else and we have proof from all the mass graves and piles of corpses so it's totally believable.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 4, 2022 15:36:41 GMT
The Ukrainian claim is good news: Ka-52 are the most expensive Russian helicopters and if the video is new it means a new one was shot down.
Unfortunately we don't know either of those things for sure.
Ka-52s sometimes stay still to target its long-range missiles + the weather matches eastern Ukraine recently so it could be.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 4, 2022 15:56:07 GMT
Haunting. What Russia does to peaceful cities it can't have.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Dec 4, 2022 23:23:15 GMT
Feel like this is still miles away from being over. Are we into a cycle of winter warfare grinding to a halt before the inevitable Russian bombardment come March/April?
Putin is adamant he won't sit at the table until Ukraine concede the annexed regions - Can't see Ukraine being remotely keen on that idea, understandably.
The offer to Russia should (imo) be to concede Crimea (which has a long and complex history) and accept Nato neutrality, which is reasonable. Anything more than that just hands Putin the initiative and sets an awful precedent.
It's still very hard to see where this will end up.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 4, 2022 23:32:09 GMT
Feel like this is still miles away from being over. Are we into a cycle of winter warfare grinding to a halt before the inevitable Russian bombardment come March/April? Putin is adamant he won't sit at the table until Ukraine concede the annexed regions - Can't see Ukraine being remotely keen on that idea, understandably. The offer to Russia should (imo) be to concede Crimea (which has a long and complex history) and accept Nato neutrality, which is reasonable. Anything more than that just hands Putin the initiative and sets an awful precedent. It's still very hard to see where this will end up. Mostly agree but it's up to Ukraine for me and we should give them the weapons to free Crimea. If they fail then maybe they could put it on the table. The "right" answer is Putin et al going to the Hague, reparations to Ukraine and a full return of Ukrainian land. But sometimes military defeats force you to accept wrong things. The problem for me is that we haven't given Ukraine enough kit to prevent those losses.
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Post by ashleyscfc on Dec 5, 2022 1:35:52 GMT
The Ukrainians musnt stop and must be backed to the hilt. Putin is waiting for us to waiver over winter and economic chaos to cause a breakdown.
Allowing him to win sets a dangerous precedent, we need to ramp up for the good of our own capability and those of our allies.
Our military is currently woefully under backed now. Another Tory sham.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 5, 2022 7:49:51 GMT
I struggle to see anything more than a Korean Penisular style ceasefire, with Ukraine taking back the annexed regions, except Crimea. I just can't see Ukraine getting the equipment needed to take Crimea back, as the Russians will defend it at all costs.
Any talk of "NATO Neutrality" is bollocks, as it was not the reason for the invasion and Ukraine will now be militarised for at least a generation.
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Post by lordb on Dec 5, 2022 8:19:04 GMT
Feel like this is still miles away from being over. Are we into a cycle of winter warfare grinding to a halt before the inevitable Russian bombardment come March/April? Putin is adamant he won't sit at the table until Ukraine concede the annexed regions - Can't see Ukraine being remotely keen on that idea, understandably. The offer to Russia should (imo) be to concede Crimea (which has a long and complex history) and accept Nato neutrality, which is reasonable. Anything more than that just hands Putin the initiative and sets an awful precedent. It's still very hard to see where this will end up. With a prolonged war Ukraine can't give up, Russia can't win Eventually an exhausted post Putin Russia goes home
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Post by peterthornesboots on Dec 5, 2022 11:15:30 GMT
Feel like this is still miles away from being over. Are we into a cycle of winter warfare grinding to a halt before the inevitable Russian bombardment come March/April? Putin is adamant he won't sit at the table until Ukraine concede the annexed regions - Can't see Ukraine being remotely keen on that idea, understandably. The offer to Russia should (imo) be to concede Crimea (which has a long and complex history) and accept Nato neutrality, which is reasonable. Anything more than that just hands Putin the initiative and sets an awful precedent. It's still very hard to see where this will end up. This is a conflict that is going to grind on for years, maybe decades. Russia's assumption that Ukraine would fold in a matter of days of the invasion starting will go down as one of the greatest and most costly misjudgements in modern history. We are now in a situation where the West cannot afford for Ukraine to fail (due to the precedent it would set) and Russia cannot back down (as defeat is not an option considering the lives and money they have wasted). This will just become a war of attrition and resources now. The only caveat would be if Putin was disposed. However, who is to say that the next Russian leader would have any greater sanity?
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Post by bayernoatcake on Dec 5, 2022 11:50:10 GMT
An alledged drone attack on a Russian air force base 600km from Ukraine.
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Post by lawrieleslie on Dec 5, 2022 12:36:49 GMT
This being shared by Russians. That's what happens to innocent civilians where Russia is allowed to occupy. We don't know these were real cases by Russians, but I got it originally from a Russian telegram channel that was loving it. They did the same sorry of shit everywhere else and we have proof from all the mass graves and piles of corpses so it's totally believable. Would the feet of a hanging dead body not point downwards?
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Post by OldStokie on Dec 5, 2022 14:38:25 GMT
Feel like this is still miles away from being over. Are we into a cycle of winter warfare grinding to a halt before the inevitable Russian bombardment come March/April? Putin is adamant he won't sit at the table until Ukraine concede the annexed regions - Can't see Ukraine being remotely keen on that idea, understandably. The offer to Russia should (imo) be to concede Crimea (which has a long and complex history) and accept Nato neutrality, which is reasonable. Anything more than that just hands Putin the initiative and sets an awful precedent. It's still very hard to see where this will end up. This is something I said on this thread a while back but I suggested a way out would be a lease/lend of Crimea - much like Hong Kong - which *could* save face for both sides. But I don't think it will happen unless NATO insists on it and Putin seriously wants to end this farce he's started. OS.
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Post by iancransonsknees on Dec 5, 2022 16:28:44 GMT
Feel like this is still miles away from being over. Are we into a cycle of winter warfare grinding to a halt before the inevitable Russian bombardment come March/April? Putin is adamant he won't sit at the table until Ukraine concede the annexed regions - Can't see Ukraine being remotely keen on that idea, understandably. The offer to Russia should (imo) be to concede Crimea (which has a long and complex history) and accept Nato neutrality, which is reasonable. Anything more than that just hands Putin the initiative and sets an awful precedent. It's still very hard to see where this will end up. With a prolonged war Ukraine can't give up, Russia can't win Eventually an exhausted post Putin Russia goes home Putin's Afghanistan.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 5, 2022 16:51:05 GMT
SNIP Something to come back to in a few days. If you're not following the details: every single day there are loads of claims like this. I thought it would be worth sharing one so we can all see later. A trustworthy source has been saying that Russian bombers have been moving around like they did before the last major attacks, so there's a tiny bit of real evidence for this claim. It's a few days on and still no massive strike. There probably will be more but remember this next time you hear "Belarus will invade soon" or "Russia will attack Kyiv next Tuesday!" Almost nobody knows all the details so we should be really careful believing things. Looks like it finally came. Was pretty obvious there would be a big missile attack but the day-to-day predictions are mostly wrong... Twitter account of Ukraine's commander says 60+ of the 70 launched so far were shot down. More air defence is on the way!
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 5, 2022 17:02:51 GMT
The Gepard looks like a badass tank with massive machine guns on it. Before the war some people argued it was outdated because missiles are best for air defence, but Ukrainian soldiers say this thing has been kicking ass.
It can take down a lot of drones before it runs out of ammo.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 5, 2022 17:53:16 GMT
US military plans to increase shell production by 500% over several years. First boost happening, second needs Congress. "We are in a position to support Ukraine, but it’s more the mid and long term...if this war goes three or four years, we’ll be in a position to just vastly outproduce the Russians all by ourselves ― and if you combine that with our allies, then we’re just dwarfing their capability. They won’t be able to keep up." Massive artillery advantage is the *only* way Russia won anything after the initial surprises.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Dec 6, 2022 10:31:53 GMT
Another attack on an airbase deep inside of Russia.
Something they’ve been doing since the start.
And why this whole being worried of escalating anything was a load of old shite.
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Post by questionable on Dec 6, 2022 10:35:44 GMT
About time they had a bit of their own medicine
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Post by steve66 on Dec 6, 2022 10:56:46 GMT
About time they had a bit of their own medicine And more Russians will realise there’s an actual illegal war going on too.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 7, 2022 19:54:56 GMT
The big thing there is Germany sending 18 RCH 155 - mobile artillery. Ukraine keeps saying it's *desperate* for the big guns so this is great news.
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Post by scfcno1fan on Dec 7, 2022 22:03:39 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 8, 2022 5:54:55 GMT
The big thing there is Germany sending 18 RCH 155 - mobile artillery. Ukraine keeps saying it's *desperate* for the big guns so this is great news. Just read some bad news - looks like it's an order that might not be built until 2025. Ukraine needs guns now!
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Post by raythesailor on Dec 8, 2022 11:09:03 GMT
As a matter of interest. Is the World Cup being reported on or even mentioned inside Russia?
You would think that the average citizen would wonder why they are not involved.
The media control of this conflict has been a major factor from all sides.
What line of deceit, or twisted truth has the Kremlin been feeding to the people?
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 8, 2022 11:16:29 GMT
The big thing there is Germany sending 18 RCH 155 - mobile artillery. Ukraine keeps saying it's *desperate* for the big guns so this is great news. Just read some bad news - looks like it's an order that might not be built until 2025. Ukraine needs guns now! It certainly suggest we think it's going to be a long, protracted conflict.......
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