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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 8, 2022 15:05:01 GMT
Just read some bad news - looks like it's an order that might not be built until 2025. Ukraine needs guns now! It certainly suggest we think it's going to be a long, protracted conflict....... You'd hope not, right!? I saw the argument that if we show support for years then it'll signal to the Kremlin that they can't just wear down Ukraine so it's better to negotiate now. Putin is clearly holding on for an opportunity to break western support so we should send the equipment to break his army asap. Who knows what will happen next year or the year after?
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 8, 2022 15:23:01 GMT
It certainly suggest we think it's going to be a long, protracted conflict....... You'd hope not, right!? I saw the argument that if we show support for years then it'll signal to the Kremlin that they can't just wear down Ukraine so it's better to negotiate now. Putin is clearly holding on for an opportunity to break western support so we should send the equipment to break his army asap. Who knows what will happen next year or the year after? Everything I read currently suggests a hard slog over the next few months with very little gain on either side unfortunately. Information on the ground does seem to be very sporadic though.......
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 8, 2022 16:38:22 GMT
You'd hope not, right!? I saw the argument that if we show support for years then it'll signal to the Kremlin that they can't just wear down Ukraine so it's better to negotiate now. Putin is clearly holding on for an opportunity to break western support so we should send the equipment to break his army asap. Who knows what will happen next year or the year after? Everything I read currently suggests a hard slog over the next few months with very little gain on either side unfortunately. Information on the ground does seem to be very sporadic though....... I agree it's hard to tell. There's clearly a huge grind near two Donetsk towns where Russia is advancing but at huge cost. The amount of artillery and ammo we can send Vs Russia can produce is just one huge question mark.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 9, 2022 0:13:25 GMT
This guy has been reliable and says Ukrainian defences around Bakhmut are getting mauled and pushed back. It looks like either the true battle in Bakhmut will begin soon, or Russia will cut off supplies and force a Ukrainian retreat.
The best outcome is open supplies and Russia takes massive casualties.
Hopefully Ukraine is doing what it did before: letting Russia exhaust itself while resting its own soldiers.
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Post by hcstokie on Dec 9, 2022 6:33:41 GMT
This guy has been reliable and says Ukrainian defences around Bakhmut are getting mauled and pushed back. It looks like either the true battle in Bakhmut will begin soon, or Russia will cut off supplies and force a Ukrainian retreat. The best outcome is open supplies and Russia takes massive casualties. Hopefully Ukraine is doing what it did before: letting Russia exhaust itself while resting its own soldiers. The supply lines to the city are absolutely fine and under no immediate threat. If you look at it on a map there are rail and road lines from the west and north west, both of which are not close to Russian lines. Ukraine have just been using the city to make Russia bleed for every inch of ground taken. They did this earlier in the war with Sievierdonetsk before withdrawing. The difference this time is that when they withdraw there’s no immediate threat of encirclement, so they’ll just take up new positions and then the Russians start bleeding again. The Russian fixation with Bakhmut is a bit strange. Earlier on in the war it was a valuable strategic target as capturing it would have enabled them to encircle Ukrainian forces to the north and trap them in a pocket. Since the Ukrainian counter attacks a couple of months back this is no longer the case, so it holds little strategic value. Despite this, the Russians keep throwing meat into the grinder so I think now it’s become a matter of face saving for Putin and Progozhin.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 9, 2022 13:55:14 GMT
This guy has been reliable and says Ukrainian defences around Bakhmut are getting mauled and pushed back. It looks like either the true battle in Bakhmut will begin soon, or Russia will cut off supplies and force a Ukrainian retreat. The best outcome is open supplies and Russia takes massive casualties. Hopefully Ukraine is doing what it did before: letting Russia exhaust itself while resting its own soldiers. The supply lines to the city are absolutely fine and under no immediate threat. If you look at it on a map there are rail and road lines from the west and north west, both of which are not close to Russian lines. Ukraine have just been using the city to make Russia bleed for every inch of ground taken. They did this earlier in the war with Sievierdonetsk before withdrawing. The difference this time is that when they withdraw there’s no immediate threat of encirclement, so they’ll just take up new positions and then the Russians start bleeding again. The Russian fixation with Bakhmut is a bit strange. Earlier on in the war it was a valuable strategic target as capturing it would have enabled them to encircle Ukrainian forces to the north and trap them in a pocket. Since the Ukrainian counter attacks a couple of months back this is no longer the case, so it holds little strategic value. Despite this, the Russians keep throwing meat into the grinder so I think now it’s become a matter of face saving for Putin and Progozhin. What is the estimated number of Ukranian casualties to date does anyone know? I read more about Russian losses but it must be getting worryingly high based on the current situation..........
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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 9, 2022 14:07:02 GMT
The supply lines to the city are absolutely fine and under no immediate threat. If you look at it on a map there are rail and road lines from the west and north west, both of which are not close to Russian lines. Ukraine have just been using the city to make Russia bleed for every inch of ground taken. They did this earlier in the war with Sievierdonetsk before withdrawing. The difference this time is that when they withdraw there’s no immediate threat of encirclement, so they’ll just take up new positions and then the Russians start bleeding again. The Russian fixation with Bakhmut is a bit strange. Earlier on in the war it was a valuable strategic target as capturing it would have enabled them to encircle Ukrainian forces to the north and trap them in a pocket. Since the Ukrainian counter attacks a couple of months back this is no longer the case, so it holds little strategic value. Despite this, the Russians keep throwing meat into the grinder so I think now it’s become a matter of face saving for Putin and Progozhin. What is the estimated number of Ukranian casualties to date does anyone know? I read more about Russian losses but it must be getting worryingly high based on the current situation.......... Approx 13,000 troops and 7,000 civilians.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 9, 2022 14:27:10 GMT
What is the estimated number of Ukranian casualties to date does anyone know? I read more about Russian losses but it must be getting worryingly high based on the current situation.......... Approx 13,000 troops and 7,000 civilians. Ta mate. Feels low that to me (questioning the reported figures, not you), I know I read that some estimates suggest upwards of 100,000 killed or wounded on both sides which is devastating. Could get a damn site worse as well........
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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 9, 2022 14:58:35 GMT
Approx 13,000 troops and 7,000 civilians. Ta mate. Feels low that to me (questioning the reported figures, not you), I know I read that some estimates suggest upwards of 100,000 killed or wounded on both sides which is devastating. Could get a damn site worse as well........ Yeah that 100,000 figure on both sides came from a US general a while back but has since proved to be bogus, although people are still (not their fault) quoting it. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63829973
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 9, 2022 15:07:07 GMT
Approx 13,000 troops and 7,000 civilians. Ta mate. Feels low that to me (questioning the reported figures, not you), I know I read that some estimates suggest upwards of 100,000 killed or wounded on both sides which is devastating. Could get a damn site worse as well........ Ukraine said 13k KIA, one US military guy said 100,000 including wounded. The people I follow were very split - ignoring the pro Russians who just repeat obvious lies all the time it felt like most thought 100k was too high but not all. Also: Ukraine's army could have 13k KIA and police or territorial defence have more. Or maybe many are officially missing rather than dead. Almost everyone agrees that Ukraine evac + medical care seems better, so they're thinking 3-5 Ukrainian wounded per KIA based on past wars. They think 2-3 wounded per Russian KIA. EDIT: so Ukraine's 13k officially killed could easily mean another 40-60k wounded. You're then most of the way to 100k.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 9, 2022 15:10:49 GMT
Ta mate. Feels low that to me (questioning the reported figures, not you), I know I read that some estimates suggest upwards of 100,000 killed or wounded on both sides which is devastating. Could get a damn site worse as well........ Ukraine said 13k KIA, one US military guy said 100,000 including wounded. The people I follow were very split - ignoring the pro Russians who just repeat obvious lies all the time it felt like most thought 100k was too high but not all. Also: Ukraine's army could have 13k KIA and police or territorial defence have more. Or maybe many are officially missing rather than dead. Almost everyone agrees that Ukraine evac + medical care seems a lot better, so far they seem to think 3-5 Ukrainian wounded per KIA based on past wars. They think 2-3 wounded per Russian KIA. ESIT: so Ukraine's 13k officially killed could easily mean another 40-60k wounded. You're then most of the way to 100k. Makes sense mate......
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 9, 2022 15:13:07 GMT
Ta mate. Feels low that to me (questioning the reported figures, not you), I know I read that some estimates suggest upwards of 100,000 killed or wounded on both sides which is devastating. Could get a damn site worse as well........ Yeah that 100,000 figure on both sides came from a US general a while back but has since proved to be bogus, although people are still (not their fault) quoting it. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63829973Do you have a link to the proof that it's bogus? I saw some well-argued pieces but I wouldn't have called them "proof". Even though I really wanted to believe them!
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 9, 2022 16:29:30 GMT
This guy has been reliable and says Ukrainian defences around Bakhmut are getting mauled and pushed back. It looks like either the true battle in Bakhmut will begin soon, or Russia will cut off supplies and force a Ukrainian retreat. The best outcome is open supplies and Russia takes massive casualties. Hopefully Ukraine is doing what it did before: letting Russia exhaust itself while resting its own soldiers. The supply lines to the city are absolutely fine and under no immediate threat. If you look at it on a map there are rail and road lines from the west and north west, both of which are not close to Russian lines. Ukraine have just been using the city to make Russia bleed for every inch of ground taken. They did this earlier in the war with Sievierdonetsk before withdrawing. The difference this time is that when they withdraw there’s no immediate threat of encirclement, so they’ll just take up new positions and then the Russians start bleeding again. The Russian fixation with Bakhmut is a bit strange. Earlier on in the war it was a valuable strategic target as capturing it would have enabled them to encircle Ukrainian forces to the north and trap them in a pocket. Since the Ukrainian counter attacks a couple of months back this is no longer the case, so it holds little strategic value. Despite this, the Russians keep throwing meat into the grinder so I think now it’s become a matter of face saving for Putin and Progozhin. That all makes sense to me but it's sad every time Ukraine gets pushed out of a defensive position. And Russia might be able to grind through Bakhmut over winter. Sievierodonetsk is a good comparison. There were photos of literally a dozen+ Russian MSTA-S howitzers all lined up bombing the shit out of that city back in May/June. HIMARS means Russia can't do that any more so loads of Ukrainian lives are being saved in Bakhmut. ATACMS missiles, drones and more armour would save more lives though.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 9, 2022 18:16:21 GMT
Yeah that 100,000 figure on both sides came from a US general a while back but has since proved to be bogus, although people are still (not their fault) quoting it. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63829973Do you have a link to the proof that it's bogus? I saw some well-argued pieces but I wouldn't have called them "proof". Even though I really wanted to believe them!
I don't think anybody can prove any actual figures at the moment mate, maybe I should have said that the general consensus is that those are the sort of figures for Ukrainians killed.
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Post by musik on Dec 9, 2022 18:22:20 GMT
"Don't they know it's Christmas time at all?"
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Post by hcstokie on Dec 9, 2022 20:36:46 GMT
The supply lines to the city are absolutely fine and under no immediate threat. If you look at it on a map there are rail and road lines from the west and north west, both of which are not close to Russian lines. Ukraine have just been using the city to make Russia bleed for every inch of ground taken. They did this earlier in the war with Sievierdonetsk before withdrawing. The difference this time is that when they withdraw there’s no immediate threat of encirclement, so they’ll just take up new positions and then the Russians start bleeding again. The Russian fixation with Bakhmut is a bit strange. Earlier on in the war it was a valuable strategic target as capturing it would have enabled them to encircle Ukrainian forces to the north and trap them in a pocket. Since the Ukrainian counter attacks a couple of months back this is no longer the case, so it holds little strategic value. Despite this, the Russians keep throwing meat into the grinder so I think now it’s become a matter of face saving for Putin and Progozhin. That all makes sense to me but it's sad every time Ukraine gets pushed out of a defensive position. And Russia might be able to grind through Bakhmut over winter. Sievierodonetsk is a good comparison. There were photos of literally a dozen+ Russian MSTA-S howitzers all lined up bombing the shit out of that city back in May/June. HIMARS means Russia can't do that any more so loads of Ukrainian lives are being saved in Bakhmut. ATACMS missiles, drones and more armour would save more lives though. It’s probably exactly what the Ukrainians want though. When they’re not counter attacking then let the Russians exhaust themselves and incur heavy casualties on their defensive lines. It’s thought that he artillery and rocket systems are playing a large part in maintaining the Russian style of attack. They can’t group units together for fear of precise artillery strikes, so they’ve having to resort to piecemeal attacks along the whole line which simply doesn’t provide any meaningful breakthroughs. The Ukrainians can just let them carry on doing what they’re doing.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 9, 2022 21:36:11 GMT
Do you have a link to the proof that it's bogus? I saw some well-argued pieces but I wouldn't have called them "proof". Even though I really wanted to believe them! I don't think anybody can prove any actual figures at the moment mate, maybe I should have said that the general consensus is that those are the sort of figures for Ukrainians killed.
Understood mate. Ukraine have been pretty close to (trying to be) honest I think. But it's been 9 months of hell and enough wiggle room (non-army, missing etc) that I could believe 100k too. I really hope not.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 11, 2022 2:29:18 GMT
The big news today was explosions in occupied Melitopol, seem to be Russian military bases.
I've just seen horrible footage with messed up bodies. The best case could be hundreds of Russian soldiers out of action from a single attack. That seems a bit too much but the fires are *big*.
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Post by OldStokie on Dec 11, 2022 12:01:16 GMT
The big news today was explosions in occupied Melitopol, seem to be Russian military bases. I've just seen horrible footage with messed up bodies. The best case could be hundreds of Russian soldiers out of action from a single attack. That seems a bit too much but the fires are *big*. But Odessa now seems to be getting some stick from the Russians. They're hitting the power infrastructure there. One thing I did read on the BBC this morning is that Belarus is allowing grain from UKR to pass through their country to Lithuania and ports in The Baltic. The UN are working tirelessly to keep the grain flowing. Also, ties between Iran and Russia are strengthening and disturbing world order. Iran is now becoming Russia's largest supplier for missiles and drones. Those two countries deserve each other. Both are ruled by vile regimes. OS.
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Post by questionable on Dec 11, 2022 15:58:58 GMT
The big news today was explosions in occupied Melitopol, seem to be Russian military bases. I've just seen horrible footage with messed up bodies. The best case could be hundreds of Russian soldiers out of action from a single attack. That seems a bit too much but the fires are *big*. From what I’ve read 200 Killed and up to 300 injured many of which have been taken to Crimea as the local hospitals are rammed. Reports suggest that the Russians had massed into a Spa resort in rather plush surroundings and well the rest is as is “but” the footage suggests the accents of the affected Russians are from the eastern part of Russia where Moscow couldn’t give a shit what happens to them.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 11, 2022 18:32:02 GMT
The big news today was explosions in occupied Melitopol, seem to be Russian military bases. I've just seen horrible footage with messed up bodies. The best case could be hundreds of Russian soldiers out of action from a single attack. That seems a bit too much but the fires are *big*. From what I’ve read 200 Killed and up to 300 injured many of which have been taken to Crimea as the local hospitals are rammed. Reports suggest that the Russians had massed into a Spa resort in rather plush surroundings and well the rest is as is “but” the footage suggests the accents of the affected Russians are from the eastern part of Russia where Moscow couldn’t give a shit what happens to them. Those crazy numbers go around a lot but the videos for this showed a lot of wreckage and it seemed like a lot of dead and wounded even far away from the big fires. Those numbers are extra suspicious because I've seen loads of past stories talking about 200 dead and 300 wounded because "200" is Russian slang for "dead" and "300" is Russian slang for "wounded" so the translations mess up.
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Post by questionable on Dec 11, 2022 18:37:08 GMT
From what I’ve read 200 Killed and up to 300 injured many of which have been taken to Crimea as the local hospitals are rammed. Reports suggest that the Russians had massed into a Spa resort in rather plush surroundings and well the rest is as is “but” the footage suggests the accents of the affected Russians are from the eastern part of Russia where Moscow couldn’t give a shit what happens to them. Those crazy numbers go around a lot but the videos for this showed a lot of wreckage and it seemed like a lot of dead and wounded even far away from the big fires. Those numbers are extra suspicious because I've seen loads of past stories talking about 200 dead and 300 wounded because "200" is Russian slang for "dead" and "300" is Russian slang for "wounded" so the translations mess up. There’s another post on Twitter now about a new attack on Russian soldiers with mass casualties, not sure if it’s the story from yesterday mind.
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Post by somersetstokie on Dec 11, 2022 19:45:21 GMT
There have been unconfirmed reports that Ukraine mounted some sort of largely successful attack on an area that the Russian mercenary "Wagner" group had adopted as their regional headquarters.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 11, 2022 21:33:16 GMT
There have been unconfirmed reports that Ukraine mounted some sort of largely successful attack on an area that the Russian mercenary "Wagner" group had adopted as their regional headquarters. Wagner are absolute monsters. Taking out their leaders must be high priority. Change of topic: Ukrainian tank takes out Russian tank. We haven't seen that many videos of tank fights:
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Post by questionable on Dec 11, 2022 22:48:19 GMT
There have been unconfirmed reports that Ukraine mounted some sort of largely successful attack on an area that the Russian mercenary "Wagner" group had adopted as their regional headquarters. Wagner are absolute monsters. Taking out their leaders must be high priority. Change of topic: Ukrainian tank takes out Russian tank. We haven't seen that many videos of tank fights: Strong rumours of Germany supplying tanks to Ukraine soon.
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Post by plug on Dec 12, 2022 7:49:35 GMT
There have been unconfirmed reports that Ukraine mounted some sort of largely successful attack on an area that the Russian mercenary "Wagner" group had adopted as their regional headquarters. Wagner are absolute monsters. Taking out their leaders must be high priority. Change of topic: Ukrainian tank takes out Russian tank. We haven't seen that many videos of tank fights: The state of that town. Absolutely flattened.
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Post by Northy on Dec 12, 2022 8:50:03 GMT
Wagner are absolute monsters. Taking out their leaders must be high priority. Change of topic: Ukrainian tank takes out Russian tank. We haven't seen that many videos of tank fights: The state of that town. Absolutely flattened. Was going to say the same, the poor civilians have got 3 months of harsh winter coming up, hope they've all got out into places like Kiev and abroad.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 12, 2022 20:57:49 GMT
Wagner are absolute monsters. Taking out their leaders must be high priority. Change of topic: Ukrainian tank takes out Russian tank. We haven't seen that many videos of tank fights: The state of that town. Absolutely flattened. It's horrendous to compare Donetsk and Mariupol. Donetsk has been Russian occupied since 2014 and Russia says Ukraine has been trying to genocide it since then. Videos from *last week* show a pretty normal looking city. Mariupol was Ukrainian controlled until this year. Then Russia came and now it's totally wrecked and mass graves for thousands of civilians are still being dug. That's a pretty big difference between the two sides.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 12, 2022 21:03:35 GMT
Example of one group that estimates casualties. They think up to 50k Ukrainian KIA and almost 100k Russian.
The tweeter has contacts with people in Ukraine and military experience. This shows that even some pro-Ukrainian sources think 100k+ Ukrainian casualties (including wounded) could be real.
Doesn't mean they're right - no one who knows the real numbers is making them public.
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Post by Marc01 on Dec 12, 2022 23:12:08 GMT
There have been unconfirmed reports that Ukraine mounted some sort of largely successful attack on an area that the Russian mercenary "Wagner" group had adopted as their regional headquarters. Wagner are absolute monsters. Taking out their leaders must be high priority. Change of topic: Ukrainian tank takes out Russian tank. We haven't seen that many videos of tank fights: I’m no expert but the gap between the firing and the impact seems unbelievably short over the distance involved?
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