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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Sept 30, 2022 15:15:49 GMT
Now that’s when it could escalate. If we accept Ukraine to NATO, we’d have to get involved instantaneously. If we accept Ukraine into Nato then we may as well just crack on with WW3 now.
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Sept 30, 2022 15:18:49 GMT
Now that’s when it could escalate. If we accept Ukraine to NATO, we’d have to get involved instantaneously. If we accept Ukraine into Nato then we may as well just crack on with WW3 now. I'm not even sure as they can be accepted, surely there must be some rule about how nations who're already in a war with someone can't join?
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2022 15:25:06 GMT
Right. 😂 It’s just hot air. I'm not going to argue the toss with you, just take it as a given. I don’t but I think it’s highly unlikely. We’ve seen the state of their kit. Who’s to say their nukes aren’t the same? There’s no reason to be scared of this nation.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 30, 2022 15:40:14 GMT
Sadly we've got to power through and help Ukraine fully defeat and expel the Russian army IMO.
If we cave to Putin's nuclear threats now then won't every country on earth rush for nukes because we will have proven it's the only way to defend themselves?
Ultimately the risk of nuclear Armageddon seems way, way higher if we surrender to Putin's threats now.
Throw him out of his claimed conquests and countries will see you don't need nukes to survive and so the expense won't be worth it.
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Post by andystokey on Sept 30, 2022 15:40:23 GMT
I'm not going to argue the toss with you, just take it as a given. I don’t but I think it’s highly unlikely. We’ve seen the state of their kit. Who’s to say their nukes aren’t the same? There’s no reason to be scared of this nation. You implied the UK MOD were probably "laughing their tits off" and I merely pointed out that I know you are wrong. They aren't. The reason you are able to sleep at night and are you're "not scared" is because they [UK MOD] aren't laughing their tits off. Thankfully.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2022 16:09:02 GMT
I don’t but I think it’s highly unlikely. We’ve seen the state of their kit. Who’s to say their nukes aren’t the same? There’s no reason to be scared of this nation. You implied the UK MOD were probably "laughing their tits off" and I merely pointed out that I know you are wrong. They aren't. The reason you are able to sleep at night and are you're "not scared" is because they [UK MOD] aren't laughing their tits off. Thankfully. I think they probably are. It’s funny. Ukraine have shown how serious they are taking it by doing something that will actually piss Russia off not some attack on some made up land. That shows the intention. Shithousery it would get called in football. The MOD have been mocking them for months now pretty publicly. It’s the only action.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2022 16:13:51 GMT
This is brilliant 😂😂😂
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Post by questionable on Sept 30, 2022 16:24:07 GMT
It’s the old conundrum isn’t it? Putin uses one though, he gets blown away. If the electricity or Internet mysteriously is damaged subsequently. What will the west do? Revert back to porno magazines
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Post by wagsastokie on Sept 30, 2022 16:28:53 GMT
If the electricity or Internet mysteriously is damaged subsequently. What will the west do? Revert back to porno magazines We could always start chucking putin’s mates off hotel balconies ( sorry pick them up after they accidentally fell
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Post by questionable on Sept 30, 2022 16:30:24 GMT
Because he has widened his retaliatory options today using a doctrine that the military has been signed up to for years. Additonally, the aggressor doesn't have to be considered Ukraine. They’ve threatened London with nukes at least 3 times already. It’s bullshit. Believe me once something is launched our way there’s 264 sent his way, no doubt USA will ping a dozen or so his way also. Literally nobody wins. Detest anything Russian for me they all should burn
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Post by lordb on Sept 30, 2022 16:30:31 GMT
Now that’s when it could escalate. If we accept Ukraine to NATO, we’d have to get involved instantaneously. If we accept Ukraine into Nato then we may as well just crack on with WW3 now. we (the West) need to be cute here park Ukraine's membership for now continue to support/increase support for the Ukraine war effort no fly zone perhaps could come back onto the table keep talking to China, not with a view to actually agreeing anything huge but just to keep it open with them Putin is ramping up the noise but that's what you do when you are losing
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Post by plug on Sept 30, 2022 16:31:23 GMT
If the electricity or Internet mysteriously is damaged subsequently. What will the west do? Revert back to porno magazines Thank god my stash is still in the loft in a Mike Lloyds bag!
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 30, 2022 16:32:06 GMT
I've seen enough photos now to convince me that Yampil is liberated. Good evidence supporting those maps! Still loads of rumours about Russians being trapped in Lyman, but it was supposedly gonna fall last week and it still hasn't so I guess we'll see. The best explanation IMO is that Russia *should* have withdrawn but Putin sacrificed those soldiers to avoid the bad PR of northern Donetsk Oblast being freed on the day he's boasting about conquering it.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Sept 30, 2022 16:36:12 GMT
If we accept Ukraine into Nato then we may as well just crack on with WW3 now. we (the West) need to be cute here park Ukraine's membership for now continue to support/increase support for the Ukraine war effort no fly zone perhaps could come back onto the table keep talking to China, not with a view to actually agreeing anything huge but just to keep it open with them Putin is ramping up the noise but that's what you do when you are losing Completely agree. We probably need to get on side with China on this one, as painful as that might be. Neither China or the West want Russia using nukes. Staying strong with India and Pakistan is important too.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2022 16:38:18 GMT
I've seen enough photos now to convince me that Yampil is liberated. Good evidence supporting those maps! Still loads of rumours about Russians being trapped in Lyman, but it was supposedly gonna fall last week and it still hasn't so I guess we'll see. The best explanation IMO is that Russia *should* have withdrawn but Putin sacrificed those soldiers to avoid the bad PR of northern Donetsk Oblast being freed on the day he's boasting about conquering it. Yeah I think they’ve been told to hold it at all costs tbh. Shame the Kherson front is so sluggish but if the Russians moved their best troops there then that makes sense. Just got to hope they keep pushing.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2022 16:40:16 GMT
we (the West) need to be cute here park Ukraine's membership for now continue to support/increase support for the Ukraine war effort no fly zone perhaps could come back onto the table keep talking to China, not with a view to actually agreeing anything huge but just to keep it open with them Putin is ramping up the noise but that's what you do when you are losing Completely agree. We probably need to get on side with China on this one, as painful as that might be. Neither China or the West want Russia using nukes. Staying strong with India and Pakistan is important too. Why? Showing China we won’t accept this silly shite is the only way forward. I think so far that’s been abundantly clear and so far they’ve stayed well out of it bar stealing (relatively) Russian oil.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Sept 30, 2022 16:53:27 GMT
Completely agree. We probably need to get on side with China on this one, as painful as that might be. Neither China or the West want Russia using nukes. Staying strong with India and Pakistan is important too. Why? Showing China we won’t accept this silly shite is the only way forward. I think so far that’s been abundantly clear and so far they’ve stayed well out of it bar stealing (relatively) Russian oil. Because falling out with China with nuclear war on a knife edge would be a pretty dumb idea? Ie let's not have Nancy Pelosi intentionally provoking China by popping up in Taiwan stirring the shit. I'm not saying we need to become best friends with China, just use common sense and keep things amicable.
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Post by lordb on Sept 30, 2022 16:53:50 GMT
Completely agree. We probably need to get on side with China on this one, as painful as that might be. Neither China or the West want Russia using nukes. Staying strong with India and Pakistan is important too. Why? Showing China we won’t accept this silly shite is the only way forward. I think so far that’s been abundantly clear and so far they’ve stayed well out of it bar stealing (relatively) Russian oil. Why? to keep China out of bed with Russia Putins Russia has to be isolated in every way possible eventually the Russians will oust Putin, he isn't going to die peacefully in his bed it will be at the hands of his own countrymen However this could take years & there's always the possibility that someone worse takes over however they are the cards dealt
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 30, 2022 16:56:21 GMT
Completely agree. We probably need to get on side with China on this one, as painful as that might be. Neither China or the West want Russia using nukes. Staying strong with India and Pakistan is important too. Why? Showing China we won’t accept this silly shite is the only way forward. I think so far that’s been abundantly clear and so far they’ve stayed well out of it bar stealing (relatively) Russian oil. If Russia is allowed to take Ukraine then that opens new options for Taiwan. Maybe a Taiwanese candidate could run on getting nukes asap and then hold a referendum declaring complete independence from the PRC. Western agreement to press against that could be a good trade in exchange to China agreeing to tell Russia that China will (a) never recognise conquered Ukraine and (b) also launch air strikes to destroy the Russian military if any nuclear weapon is used at any scale.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Sept 30, 2022 16:56:22 GMT
Why? Showing China we won’t accept this silly shite is the only way forward. I think so far that’s been abundantly clear and so far they’ve stayed well out of it bar stealing (relatively) Russian oil. Why? to keep China out of bed with Russia Putins Russia has to be isolated in every way possible eventually the Russians will oust Putin, he isn't going to die peacefully in his bed it will be at the hands of his own countrymen However this could take years & there's always the possibility that someone worse takes over however they are the cards dealt Indeed. And while Putin remains in power, there always remains the possibility he does something incredibly stupid. China is an authoritarian mess but they need us and we need them. There is zero value to global security in having a major fall out with the Chinese at this particular moment.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 30, 2022 17:10:29 GMT
This is a BMP-2 Infrantry Fighting Vehicle. A really common workhorse of the Russian army since 1980, they said they had almost 3,000 active. Russia has now lost at least 500 plus an even higher fraction of their more modern BMP-3s. Like Den said, Russia still has a ridiculous amount of kit, but the new units will be relying more and more on BMP-1s and MT-LBs. The first one is older and shittier in loads of ways, and the second one generally doesn't pack a big gun at all. The demilitarisation of Russia continues. Are you a expert specialist in Russian military, ?? The vehicles behind the tanks on that train look like BMP-1s from the turrets? If they are then that could be extra evidence for what I was saying.
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Post by musik on Sept 30, 2022 18:15:46 GMT
Can someone explain why all this is happening?
Is it because of all the drug addicts Putin initially mentioned?
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2022 18:29:13 GMT
Why? Showing China we won’t accept this silly shite is the only way forward. I think so far that’s been abundantly clear and so far they’ve stayed well out of it bar stealing (relatively) Russian oil. Why? to keep China out of bed with Russia Putins Russia has to be isolated in every way possible eventually the Russians will oust Putin, he isn't going to die peacefully in his bed it will be at the hands of his own countrymen However this could take years & there's always the possibility that someone worse takes over however they are the cards dealt They’re not though really. China is exploiting Russia at the moment because they’re weak.
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Post by PotteringThrough on Sept 30, 2022 18:31:52 GMT
Why? to keep China out of bed with Russia Putins Russia has to be isolated in every way possible eventually the Russians will oust Putin, he isn't going to die peacefully in his bed it will be at the hands of his own countrymen However this could take years & there's always the possibility that someone worse takes over however they are the cards dealt They’re not though really. China is exploiting Russia at the moment because they’re weak. China shares a border with a Russia, that plays a big part in their approach.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2022 18:46:20 GMT
They’re not though really. China is exploiting Russia at the moment because they’re weak. China shares a border with a Russia, that plays a big part in their approach. I bet. It’d be easier to take Siberia than Taiwan…..
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Post by lordb on Sept 30, 2022 18:48:58 GMT
Can someone explain why all this is happening? Is it because of all the drug addicts Putin initially mentioned? Because Putin, and others, couldn't accept the collapse of the Soviet Union
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Post by Veritas on Sept 30, 2022 18:52:01 GMT
Can someone explain why all this is happening? Is it because of all the drug addicts Putin initially mentioned? Because Putin, and others, couldn't accept the collapse of the Soviet Union They viewed the USSR as a greater Russia and Stalin as a new Peter the Great, Putin sees himself as the next incarnation.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Sept 30, 2022 18:52:47 GMT
Can someone explain why all this is happening? Is it because of all the drug addicts Putin initially mentioned? Not sure, but the lunatic mentioned annexing the laundry room in his rant earlier so batten down the hatches
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Post by cobhamstokey on Sept 30, 2022 19:36:19 GMT
Reading these last 3 pages makes me realise why i’ve been keeping off this thread. Sometimes it’s better being ignorant to the specualation / experts. Ultimately there’s little we can do.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Sept 30, 2022 20:24:23 GMT
John R Bruning is back with an update, and it gets more interesting the further you go down the list of points. The photos he refers to show the Russian equivalent of the Home Guard in fresh uniforms, looking less than happy to be there.
Some developments in Europe unfolding right now.
1. Russia annexed four sections of Ukraine today after a hasty and totally fictitious referendum.
2. Why did Putin do this? The Ukrainians are on the verge of a significant strategic victory and can recapture all territory lost. By formally annexing the places not yet liberated, there is the paper appearance that should Ukraine continue their offensive, they would be attacking Russian sovereign territory. This falls under the Russian nuclear umbrella and would give Putin an excuse to unleash nuclear weapons on Ukraine in response.
3. Putin underscored that a few hours ago saying Russia will defend those territories with any and all means & weapons.
4. The Russian army is in such a deplorable state that the only way to stave off complete catastrophe is for Putin to lean into using nuclear weapons as a means to leverage Ukraine into ceasing its offensive. The Russians have no other way to stop it right now.
5. Putin asked Ukraine to restart peace talks in his speech today, on the condition that the annexed territories are off the table.
6. Zelenksy rejected peace talks with Putin, though he did suggest he would engage with Moscow. Ukraine immediately filed an accelerated petition to join NATO, which if accepted, would put NATO at war with Russia. Zelensky also has asked for anti-missile defense systems to be deployed at once to Ukraine.
7. The US announced further sanctions against Russia in response to this. Mostly they are against individual Russian elites.
8. Finland is closing its border with Russia. Most Western nations have told their citizens to leave Russia at once.
9. Somewhere between 200-300,000 military aged males have fled Russia since the mobilization order. The Russians have 7.3 million men between the ages of 18-29. That figure jumps to about 14 million if you go to 34. The army is currently trying to put 1.2 million men in uniform. Putin amended the mobilization order this week by exempting students. Those fleeing the draft seem to be largely middle to upper class urbanites, which will no doubt have a lasting effect on Russia's economy.
10. The forced conscription has focused on poor, ethnic minorities largely in rural areas. The ages drafted include men in their 50s and 60s. See the attached photos as examples. These men were drafted in Crimea.
11. Last week, Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West again, adding he "isn't bluffing."
12. Russian Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dimitry Medvedev posted on his Telegram page this week saying essentially using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is an option and that the West and NATO does not have the stomach to respond.
13. There is a division in DC between the admin/state dept and the military on how to respond. The military does not believe a conventional response to a Russian nuclear attack will deter the Russians. The administration believes it will and has been passing behind the scenes messages to the Russians that if they do use nukes, there will be a massive conventional response.
14. The State Dept. is leaning on India and China to try and get Russia's remaining "allies" to reign Putin in to make sure the Russians do not escalate to a nuclear attack on Ukraine.
15. Backdoor channels between the US and Russia to discuss new START nuclear weapons verification agreements and implementation have been opened by the Russians.
16. As far as can be determined with public information, no Russian tactical warheads have been moved out of their storage bunkers.
17. After postponing test launches of ICBMs in order to de-escalate tensions, the US ran a nuclear weapons loading exercise with some of the B-52 fleet this week.
18. The UN Security Council is meeting today to vote on a resolution denouncing the annexations. Russia has veto power over this, so it will go nowhere. Plus this means nothing anyway. Empty UN proclamations.
Ukraine has called for Russia to be kicked off the Security Council. That is extremely unlikely to happen unless the Russians use nuclear weapons.
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