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Post by prestwichpotter on Jun 30, 2022 8:41:43 GMT
What Russia strives for and what Russia are ultimately happy to come away with are two different things that's true......... Their goals have reduced from about a week in. They've lost plenty of land that they had conquered. Bolton is living in cloud cuckoo land. The red line is the Donbas region, Crimean corridor etc etc. I've seen nothing to suggest that still won't happen as some point...........
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2022 8:44:51 GMT
Their goals have reduced from about a week in. They've lost plenty of land that they had conquered. Bolton is living in cloud cuckoo land. The red line is the Donbas region, Crimean corridor etc etc. I've seen nothing to suggest that still won't happen as some point........... You really do think the Kyiv thing was a feint don't you I mean apart from in Kherson the grind is toward Russian held land you're spot on.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2022 8:49:04 GMT
This is fun
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jun 30, 2022 9:01:30 GMT
The red line is the Donbas region, Crimean corridor etc etc. I've seen nothing to suggest that still won't happen as some point........... You really do think the Kyiv thing was a feint don't you I mean apart from in Kherson the grind is toward Russian held land you're spot on. I think nothing of the sort. I'm talking about the reality of the situation, you can post as many links from Jimmy as you like nothing I have seen suggests that the end outcome won't be as I mentioned above.........
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2022 9:07:24 GMT
You really do think the Kyiv thing was a feint don't you I mean apart from in Kherson the grind is toward Russian held land you're spot on. I think nothing of the sort. I'm talking about the reality of the situation, you can post as many links from Jimmy as you like nothing I have seen suggests that the end outcome won't be as I mentioned above......... There's even less to suggest Russia are winning or even close to winning. They just haven't got the manpower. They have to concentrate on one small area and others are left to it. It took them 6 weeks to take a mid sized city of no real importance to anyone.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jun 30, 2022 9:20:55 GMT
I think nothing of the sort. I'm talking about the reality of the situation, you can post as many links from Jimmy as you like nothing I have seen suggests that the end outcome won't be as I mentioned above......... There's even less to suggest Russia are winning or even close to winning. They just haven't got the manpower. They have to concentrate on one small area and others are left to it. It took them 6 weeks to take a mid sized city of no real importance to anyone. It depends on your definition of winning, if you're talking about taking the whole of the country of course they're not. But I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about a specific region of the country.........
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2022 9:23:27 GMT
There's even less to suggest Russia are winning or even close to winning. They just haven't got the manpower. They have to concentrate on one small area and others are left to it. It took them 6 weeks to take a mid sized city of no real importance to anyone. It depends on your definition of winning, if you're talking about taking the whole of the country of course they're not. But I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about a specific region of the country......... Which is objective about K on the list. And they will probably take Luhansk within a fortnight unless the supposed shortage of ammo that Russians on Telegram kicks in. And then it'll be the slow grind again. Which just buys Ukraine more time to get even more better weapons as Russia brings in more antique tanks.
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 30, 2022 9:24:28 GMT
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Post by noustie on Jun 30, 2022 9:56:21 GMT
There's even less to suggest Russia are winning or even close to winning. They just haven't got the manpower. They have to concentrate on one small area and others are left to it. It took them 6 weeks to take a mid sized city of no real importance to anyone. It depends on your definition of winning, if you're talking about taking the whole of the country of course they're not. But I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about a specific region of the country......... Are we winning? Yesterday sure as hell didn't feel like it. After sanctions banning Russian oil sales over the last few months introducing new even stricter sanctions on price capping the sale of Russian oil seemed out of the Milo Mindbender school of economics. We've also authorised accepting Finland and Sweden into NATO which will no doubt piss off the bloke who is regularly portrayed in the press as being bat shit mental with a god complex and pressed into a corner whilst simultaneously holding an array of nukes from 'fun size' all the way up to 'Cost Co Christmas Special'. The rights and wrongs of that decision can be argued all day along with whether or not he is actually mental enough to push the buttom even on a cheeky little tactical one in the Baltics but what it cost to get there is evident from the reports yesterday: Turkey originally vetoed the expansion but agreed yesterday they could join following negotiation. Essentially to get their agreement we've given the Turkish leader, who is now a good guy nutter, authoirity to go blow the shit out of the PKK/ Kurdish rebels with possibly his new F16's. What could possibly go wrong! www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/29/why-did-turkey-lift-its-veto-on-finland-sweden-joining-nato-explainerNot content with just Syria becoming even less stable we also had Japan and South Korea sat on the NATO council for the first time and the relationship with China changed on Facebook to 'It's complicated'. China weren't massively enamoured either by the look of it and I think I've seen this script somewhere before: www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1269379.shtmlChina is closely paying attention to the three-way summit between US, Japan and South Korea on the sidelines of the summit, in which the Korean Peninsula issue will be discussed along with NATO's Asia expansion against China.
As for China's two neighbor, Chinese experts warned that guiding the way for the US-led NATO into Asia-Pacific at the expense of diminished diplomatic autonomy will not serve economic and security interests in the long run, and will no doubt exacerbate regional confrontation and division.
Add in 300,000 troops along four countries bordering Russia and a new military base in Poland this, even if it wasn’t originally which I highly doubt, this is about a lot more than a land dispute in the Eastern corner of Ukraine.
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Post by partickpotter on Jun 30, 2022 10:16:17 GMT
It depends on your definition of winning, if you're talking about taking the whole of the country of course they're not. But I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about a specific region of the country......... Are we winning? Yesterday sure as hell didn't feel like it. After sanctions banning Russian oil sales over the last few months introducing new even stricter sanctions on price capping the sale of Russian oil seemed out of the Milo Mindbender school of economics. We've also authorised accepting Finland and Sweden into NATO which will no doubt piss off the bloke who is regularly portrayed in the press as being bat shit mental with a god complex and pressed into a corner whilst simultaneously holding an array of nukes from 'fun size' all the way up to 'Cost Co Christmas Special'. The rights and wrongs of that decision can be argued all day along with whether or not he is actually mental enough to push the buttom even on a cheeky little tactical one in the Baltics but what it cost to get there is evident from the reports yesterday: Turkey originally vetoed the expansion but agreed yesterday they could join following negotiation. Essentially to get their agreement we've given the Turkish leader, who is now a good guy nutter, authoirity to go blow the shit out of the PKK/ Kurdish rebels with possibly his new F16's. What could possibly go wrong! www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/29/why-did-turkey-lift-its-veto-on-finland-sweden-joining-nato-explainerNot content with just Syria becoming even less stable we also had Japan and South Korea sat on the NATO council for the first time and the relationship with China changed on Facebook to 'It's complicated'. China weren't massively enamoured either by the look of it and I think I've seen this script somewhere before: www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1269379.shtmlChina is closely paying attention to the three-way summit between US, Japan and South Korea on the sidelines of the summit, in which the Korean Peninsula issue will be discussed along with NATO's Asia expansion against China.
As for China's two neighbor, Chinese experts warned that guiding the way for the US-led NATO into Asia-Pacific at the expense of diminished diplomatic autonomy will not serve economic and security interests in the long run, and will no doubt exacerbate regional confrontation and division.
Add in 300,000 troops along four countries bordering Russia and a new military base in Poland this, even if it wasn’t originally which I highly doubt, this is about a lot more than a land dispute in the Eastern corner of Ukraine. I guess there’s two school of thoughts out there… We need to find some accommodation with Putin that allows him to secure what aims he is satisfied with Or We need to respond with various actions to make Putin abandon military actions in neighbouring countries If you’re in the former you’ll be concerned with actions related to the latter. The former seems to be where Macron sits, the latter definitely the policy of the UK and the majority of Western countries to a greater or lesser degree. If you’re in the latter, you’re concerned that accommodation leads to further aggression from Putin with other neighbours. I’m pretty solidly in the latter camp.
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Post by noustie on Jun 30, 2022 10:45:04 GMT
That again doesn’t excuse what the Russians are doing but the continuing attempts to paint Mad Vlad as Darth Vader, Sleepy Joe as Obi Wan and the west in general as the rebel alliance just doesn’t stack up for me. How do you feel about the Russian siege of Mariupol? Anywhere from 10-50,000 dead civilians. Let's say you have 100 blame tokens so share the fault, how do you split them up? I wrestled with this all the way home from work last night - christ I'm sad but an hour commute with shite on the radio the mind ticks away It's obviously a highly emotive question but I feel it is structured purposefully to avoid context or nuance. I would hope in allocating the chips my decsion would be the same regardless the colour and pattern of the flags involved. Essentially without that context though the killing of up to 50,000 civillians is obviously horrendous but then see you and raise you building a dam to block 85% of water supply to cause drought to a 2.5m population: www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-troops-destroy-ukrainian-dam-that-blocked-water-crimea-ria-2022-02-26/If you're viewing it through the lense of singular events too how would your tokens stack up in comparison to Dresden in WW2 or the two atomic bombs for example? For me it's pointless unless we're looking at causation along with analaysubg promximate cause as to what got us to where we are and if you would like how my chips would fall in that regard I could do that as generally think it's a far more interesting and indepth question to waste our afternoon over.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2022 10:57:09 GMT
Fuck Putin should be the only thing really.
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Post by noustie on Jun 30, 2022 10:57:24 GMT
Are we winning? Yesterday sure as hell didn't feel like it. After sanctions banning Russian oil sales over the last few months introducing new even stricter sanctions on price capping the sale of Russian oil seemed out of the Milo Mindbender school of economics. We've also authorised accepting Finland and Sweden into NATO which will no doubt piss off the bloke who is regularly portrayed in the press as being bat shit mental with a god complex and pressed into a corner whilst simultaneously holding an array of nukes from 'fun size' all the way up to 'Cost Co Christmas Special'. The rights and wrongs of that decision can be argued all day along with whether or not he is actually mental enough to push the buttom even on a cheeky little tactical one in the Baltics but what it cost to get there is evident from the reports yesterday: Turkey originally vetoed the expansion but agreed yesterday they could join following negotiation. Essentially to get their agreement we've given the Turkish leader, who is now a good guy nutter, authoirity to go blow the shit out of the PKK/ Kurdish rebels with possibly his new F16's. What could possibly go wrong! www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/29/why-did-turkey-lift-its-veto-on-finland-sweden-joining-nato-explainerNot content with just Syria becoming even less stable we also had Japan and South Korea sat on the NATO council for the first time and the relationship with China changed on Facebook to 'It's complicated'. China weren't massively enamoured either by the look of it and I think I've seen this script somewhere before: www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1269379.shtmlChina is closely paying attention to the three-way summit between US, Japan and South Korea on the sidelines of the summit, in which the Korean Peninsula issue will be discussed along with NATO's Asia expansion against China.
As for China's two neighbor, Chinese experts warned that guiding the way for the US-led NATO into Asia-Pacific at the expense of diminished diplomatic autonomy will not serve economic and security interests in the long run, and will no doubt exacerbate regional confrontation and division.
Add in 300,000 troops along four countries bordering Russia and a new military base in Poland this, even if it wasn’t originally which I highly doubt, this is about a lot more than a land dispute in the Eastern corner of Ukraine. I guess there’s two school of thoughts out there… We need to find some accommodation with Putin that allows him to secure what aims he is satisfied with Or We need to respond with various actions to make Putin abandon military actions in neighbouring countries If you’re in the former you’ll be concerned with actions related to the latter. The former seems to be where Macron sits, the latter definitely the policy of the UK and the majority of Western countries to a greater or lesser degree. If you’re in the latter, you’re concerned that accommodation leads to further aggression from Putin with other neighbours. I’m pretty solidly in the latter camp. I'm obviously in the former but to be honest think either way we're fucked as seem to be on the edge of disaster without anyone with the talent or statesmanship to pull us back. There is rather a distasteful aspect of option 1 too in that if we find a middle ground with Putin then Ukraine will be sold downriver in a heartbeat and sanctions will ease as soon as public opinion allows.
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 30, 2022 16:28:47 GMT
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Post by questionable on Jun 30, 2022 16:30:56 GMT
It depends on your definition of winning, if you're talking about taking the whole of the country of course they're not. But I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about a specific region of the country......... Which is objective about K on the list. And they will probably take Luhansk within a fortnight unless the supposed shortage of ammo that Russians on Telegram kicks in. And then it'll be the slow grind again. Which just buys Ukraine more time to get even more better weapons as Russia brings in more antique tanks. UKR have some serious weapons now, keeping them active and in one piece is another thing. There’s footage on Tik Tok of one single barrage from an IMAR, Absolutely devastating obliterated everything in a massive area.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2022 16:54:52 GMT
Which is objective about K on the list. And they will probably take Luhansk within a fortnight unless the supposed shortage of ammo that Russians on Telegram kicks in. And then it'll be the slow grind again. Which just buys Ukraine more time to get even more better weapons as Russia brings in more antique tanks. UKR have some serious weapons now, keeping them active and in one piece is another thing. There’s footage on Tik Tok of one single barrage from an IMAR, Absolutely devastating obliterated everything in a massive area. Yeah its a good bit of kit!
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jun 30, 2022 22:08:30 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 1, 2022 6:32:20 GMT
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Post by Davef on Jul 1, 2022 6:59:30 GMT
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 1, 2022 7:14:26 GMT
Looks like it'll "settle down" into a long war of attrition, and that's an outcome Putin most definitely wouldn't have wanted. Every leader craves quick victories in war.
So then you'd assume it becomes a case of whose money runs out first. Long wars nearly always end when one side runs out of cash.
In this case, with the largest economies in the world lined up against one of the smaller ones, you'd expect that to be Russia. The unknown aspect is how much China is secretly backing Russia with munitions and funds.
Winter will be interesting. Invading troops don't usually fare well when it's cold and miserable and a long way from home...
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Post by lordb on Jul 1, 2022 7:16:48 GMT
Looks like it'll "settle down" into a long war of attrition, and that's an outcome Putin most definitely wouldn't have wanted. Every leader craves quick victories in war. So then you'd assume it becomes a case of whose money runs out first. Long wars nearly always end when one side runs out of cash. In this case, with the largest economies in the world lined up against one of the smaller ones, you'd expect that to be Russia. The unknown aspect is how much China is secretly backing Russia with munitions and funds. Winter will be interesting. Invading troops don't usually fare well when it's cold and miserable and a long way from home... Possibly not at all A weaker Russia isn't a bad outcome for China
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 1, 2022 7:24:44 GMT
The absolute horrors of war. If only as a society we were as outraged by British made bombs slaughtering Yemeni children in cold blood, and UK and American troops killing civilians in the Middle East with botched drone strikes, then we may eventually vote in a government whose foreign policy leads us in a completely different direction.......
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 1, 2022 7:48:47 GMT
I love this line from that "As is evident from this evaluation, though, the devil is in the detail – something which our media simply doesn’t doe"
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 1, 2022 7:49:36 GMT
Looks like it'll "settle down" into a long war of attrition, and that's an outcome Putin most definitely wouldn't have wanted. Every leader craves quick victories in war. So then you'd assume it becomes a case of whose money runs out first. Long wars nearly always end when one side runs out of cash. In this case, with the largest economies in the world lined up against one of the smaller ones, you'd expect that to be Russia. The unknown aspect is how much China is secretly backing Russia with munitions and funds. Winter will be interesting. Invading troops don't usually fare well when it's cold and miserable and a long way from home... Possibly not at all A weaker Russia isn't a bad outcome for China It's a very good outcome for them.
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Post by chuffedstokie on Jul 1, 2022 7:52:01 GMT
It's happening just off the coast here in Cardigan bay the restricted area has been made larger. Amount of aircraft activity has increased ten fold, Hercules, helicopters of varying variety and F15 using the Mach loop is now almost a daily routine as opposed to maybe twice a month.
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Post by noustie on Jul 1, 2022 9:22:06 GMT
Think China maybe want a more subservient Russia to them but they don’t want to see them dramatically weakened for me else they’d have hitched their wagon to our side. China are all over BRICS bringing what they see as balance to the global system and as per previous none of these are particularly on our side (although it should be CRIBS really as they’re obviously top dog) – China are quite staunchly not on our side and blame the US for the mess. China also see Russia not only as a key ally pointing west into Europe but pointing East into the slowly boiling shitshow that will become the South China sea the way things are going. They have no interest in seeing Russia skint and have already stepped out of their shadow plus they’re quite overtly trying extend the bloc further in direct competition with US dominance: www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202206/30/WS62bcf47fa310fd2b29e696c2.htmlThis year is ideal to talk BRICS' expansion, because it's been five years since China proposed to start the expansion process. Although explorations and procedures continue, unofficially the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Argentina and Thailand are among the countries that could join the grouping. All in all, BRICS' importance to the global economy is noteworthy in terms of population (40 percent), GDP(25 percent nominal), land area (30 percent), world trade (18 percent), and foreign exchange reserves ($4 trillion). And BRICS enlargement will help the grouping more soundly steer global development toward a more fruitful and mutually beneficial new era.www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1265536.shtmlThe US and NATO, with strong logic of power politics, bloc politics and a Cold War mind-set, may apply its tactic of turning other regions into tinderboxes in the Asia-Pacific region. With the lessons drawn from the Ukraine crisis, Asia-Pacific countries should join hands in saying no to foreign interference in the region, and start building its own security regime, avoiding the crisis in Europe from taking shape on our doorstep. For me we’re seeing the US and China wagging their dongs about and the current old skool cold war backdrop is masking what is going to be a new cold war for years to come – China want top dog spot and it seems pretty obvious they’re testing the water at the moment to go looking for it.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 1, 2022 10:00:54 GMT
The absolute horrors of war. If only as a society we were as outraged by British made bombs slaughtering Yemeni children in cold blood, and UK and American troops killing civilians in the Middle East with botched drone strikes, then we may eventually vote in a government whose foreign policy leads us in a completely different direction....... True, trade and profit are not everything. Even the implications of ethical trade needs to be considered in the context of the environment and political implications. China is now perceived as a possible 'threat' largely as a result of its trading success. Germany are not finding it easy to distance themselves from Russia, despite genuinely wanting to. There is a presumption that countries, particularly ' Western countries ' will continue to " grow" forever....not necessarily true by a long way www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/17bn-of-uk-arms-sold-to-rights-abusersen.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_arms_export
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 1, 2022 10:02:08 GMT
The absolute horrors of war. If only as a society we were as outraged by British made bombs slaughtering Yemeni children in cold blood, and UK and American troops killing civilians in the Middle East with botched drone strikes, then we may eventually vote in a government whose foreign policy leads us in a completely different direction....... True, trade and profit are not everything. Even the implications of ethical trade needs to be considered in the context of the environment and political implications. China is now perceived as a possible 'threat' largely as a result of its trading success. Germany are not finding it easy to distance themselves from Russia, despite genuinely wanting to. There is a presumption that countries, particularly ' Western countries ' will continue to " grow" forever....not necessarily true by a long way www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/27/17bn-of-uk-arms-sold-to-rights-abusersen.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_arms_exportCompletely agree John, good to see you back on the board as well after your sabbatical..........
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 1, 2022 10:12:38 GMT
The brother of my wife's friend is one of them, she has no idea where he is or what he's doing (which is normal in these types of operations)
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 1, 2022 11:39:45 GMT
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