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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 15, 2024 17:47:27 GMT
Seems like Ukraine shot down a russian attack helicopter. Been a while since they got one!
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Post by wannabee on Apr 15, 2024 18:46:20 GMT
I think that is a fair assessment of where things stand The biggest plus for Ukraine right now is their resolve to defend themselves, if that weakens because they believe they can no longer win it would be a major turning point. Russia's continued pounding of strategic targets like Energy are aimed at weakening that resolve I agree Ukraine Soldiers are better trained, led and equipped but they are outnumbered 10 to 1 and mass matters, especially when the enemy is prepared to commit unlimited Troops into the meat grinder. They are also out equipped by about 5 to 1 With the killing season about to start in earnest with the change in weather there is no possibility of a Ukraine advance like was hoped last summer. Rather it will be a defence of a Russian onslaught. The border with Russia is long and to defend it with inferior numbers and equipment will be problematic. Ukraine also doesn't know where Russia will mount the offensive so needs to spread its resources. Most likely is Kharkiv Ukraine's second City or Zaporizhzhia both very close to the border. If either were lost it would inflict massive moral as well as economic damage on Ukraine We have seen the toll on Ukraine resources to defend Bakhmut, and Avdiivka in the Donbas with disproportionate losses of manpower inflicted on Russian Troops but ultimately both were lost. I am pessimistic that without major resupply of ammunition and ground equipment from primarily US the result of US election will have little consequence to the alteration of the War. I hope I'm wrong The comments from Ukrainian units and the experts make me think the 5 most important things this year are, in order: 1. Remaining Ukrainian soldier numbers - Ukraine has people out of uniform, but do they have enough in?
2. Artillery and mortar shells - hopefully the Czechs have solved this, mortars are a worry. 3. Air power - Ukraine needs F-16s asap plus something like more long-range Patriot or Meteor. 4. Drones versus electronic warfare - the wildcard.
5. How good are Ukraine's rear fortifications - they're working on these at least.
I don't think armour is a huge issue for 2024, like you say, Ukraine can't attack much without it, but the 5 above seem more important.
The shifts since 2023 are the North Koreans and Republicans throwing in hard with Putin, and the glide bombs. Who knows what'll happen this year.
The drones vs jamming seems like it could flip the whole story and let one side make (or stop) a lot of gains. I don't think that's predictable.
I have nowhere near the detailed knowledge you have on this conflict so I'm quite happy to agree with your assessment on what the priorities are. On the priorities you place first I saw recent reports of demonstrations in Kviv not by Soldiers but by their wife's and families objecting to the extention beyond 3 years Soldiers are required to serve and the change in age for Conscription. I have no idea how widespread this feeling is but the initial euphoria of defending your Country may ware off if Conscipts are placed in accute danger due to deficiencies in equipment and if large casualties mount. I'm not saying this will happen, I don't know, but it's a possibility.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 16, 2024 0:33:52 GMT
Crazy grab bag of russian vehicles taken out in one attack
2 T-62s designed early 1960s.
A BTR-50 designed in the 1950s.
6 MT-LB battle taxis which are not designed for frontline attacks.
They have so much kit but obviously still not enough.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 16, 2024 18:01:23 GMT
Thread on the battle for Chasiv Yar.
This is the next fortress town after Bakhmut, then it's open country to a major crossroad/supply hub Kostyantinivka.
If russia takes it quickly, it would be very bad news. If Ukraine holds out most of the year it might be ok. If Ukraine still holds Chasiv Yar by new year, with a great casualty ratio, then it will be outstanding.
Ukraine's problem is that Russia only needs to break through in one important place and the republicans' pro-Putin blockade has given them a huge window in which to try.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 17, 2024 12:51:07 GMT
This is amusing.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2024 15:28:42 GMT
Ukraine should have been given 1,000 ATACMS early last year.
And told it was fine to hit russian ammo and airbases inside russia.
So many Ukrainians needlessly dead because of western weakness and idiocy.
A few million $$$ book value in ancient, degraded ATACMS took out an estimated $500 million worth of helicopters in a night.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2024 15:44:22 GMT
Azerbaijan has whipped russian "peacekeepers" out of Armenia.
Not necessarily good news since the Azeri dictator is a bad guy, we should at least learn from how he negotiated with Putin.
You show you're strong and Putin bows out.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2024 16:10:11 GMT
Russians murder Ukraine civilians with missiles every day.
Republican politicians have blocked the resupply of American air defences, and the European supplies can't stop them all.
Trump fans must be spaffing themselves at all this innocent death 😢😢😢
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2024 16:12:34 GMT
This is how the republicans' pro-Putin blockade works.
Let through four missiles to abolish another power plant.
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Post by staffordstokiemad1 on Apr 17, 2024 16:45:14 GMT
Russians murder Ukraine civilians with missiles every day. Republican politicians have blocked the resupply of American air defences, and the European supplies can't stop them all. Trump fans must be spaffing themselves at all this innocent death 😢😢😢 Trump and his supporters just call it fake news, they will literally deny it ever happened.
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Post by shakermaker on Apr 17, 2024 17:25:35 GMT
The real question is, how many Ukrainians have fallen?
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2024 17:40:23 GMT
The real question is, how many Ukrainians have fallen? Western intel sourced were saying russian losses were 1.5-2x Ukrainian last year. That's with a huge russian advantage in firepower, air support etc. My hope for Ukrainian victory is that once russia burns up its stockpile the equipment and ammo advantage will end and russian casualties will go way way up. If you're killing 4-5 russians per Ukrainian and you're doing it fast enough then gaps will open. Western politics have given no other choice. Could have won this cheaper, faster and with much less death by sending more sooner.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2024 17:47:17 GMT
Unrelated to this thread but would like to get mtrstudent or Bayerns perspective on the below. Is this correct? That tweet was bigging up russian/Iranian tech. Just like before Ukraine crushed the russian professional army in 2022. Since that tweet, supposedly half of Iran's super ballistic missiles failed to hit near their target, many because they didn't launch or just crashed... Now we have good evidence that last night some 1990s NATO ballistic missiles took out russia's most advanced anti-ballistic-missile defence "super weapon". By the genius tactic of just flying straight into its face. The same happened with the "unstoppable" Khinzal hypersonic missiles that Patriots shot down. I'm just skeptical of all the claims of superweapons from the dictatorships. They always say this sort of stuff and have been wrong every single time so far. Not saying Iran ain't dangerous, just that there are lots of fantasists bigging them up too.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 17, 2024 22:30:56 GMT
Looks like there could be a vote on Ukraine aid.
Expect more shenanigans from the pro-dictator and pro-genocide republicans. Also see that it should have gone through 6 months ago and covered this year, now there's no hope of more aid until next year if the pro-democracy politicians win.
If trump wins then the US will be focussed on trying to fuck europe and help Putin murder Ukrainians.
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Post by chuffedstokie on Apr 18, 2024 11:53:41 GMT
Looks like there could be a vote on Ukraine aid. Expect more shenanigans from the pro-dictator and pro-genocide republicans. Also see that it should have gone through 6 months ago and covered this year, now there's no hope of more aid until next year if the pro-democracy politicians win. If trump wins then the US will be focussed on trying to fuck europe and help Putin murder Ukrainians. Saw this reported on the news this morning, general noises seemed positive. We can but hope.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 18, 2024 15:21:35 GMT
ATACMS launch! 😍
The photos prove at least 4 of Russia's best missile defence launchers were blown up, and possibly more expensive kit too. $100 million damage minimum.
The US has over 1k ATACMS past their "best before". All of the fixable ones should go to Ukraine. Otherwise they will cost extra money to dispose of safely.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 18, 2024 18:08:42 GMT
Ukraine claims it's making 10 "Bohdana" mobile howitzers per month. Add Western supply and Ukraine should have enough artillery pieces, it just needs barrels and shells.
I'm a bit skeptical, since russian propaganda was claiming russian production at just 3-6/month before. But it could be true...
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Post by LDE76 on Apr 18, 2024 18:12:24 GMT
Hypothetically speaking, could there be any point at all where this malign bag of effluvia becomes too embarrassing for even the MAGA crowd?
Still, two can apparently play at that game:
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 19, 2024 4:48:06 GMT
Looks like a rather expensive russian strategic bomber has fallen down?
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 19, 2024 8:43:10 GMT
Looks like a rather expensive russian strategic bomber has fallen down? Ukraine claiming it was them. Really hope they’re not lying.
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Post by wannabee on Apr 19, 2024 13:45:30 GMT
An extraordinary story A toddler from Northern Ireland spent 3 week in Lviv having brain surgery to cure daily debilitating Epilepsy Fitting She was considered to be unsuitable to have the surgery in UK, but it seems to be a complete success www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-68851378
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 19, 2024 14:29:53 GMT
Russian missiles hit another civilian building, killing more children.
If there's any justice in the world then all of the pilots of that bomber should have died horribly.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 19, 2024 14:57:03 GMT
The Ukrainian ATACMS took out 4 S-400 launchers. A Russian battery usually has 8 launchers, a command post and radars, and it sells for $600-800 million with spare missiles.
Ukraine got around a dozen old ATACMS that weren't gonna be used anyway. Even new, that would have cost $18m nowadays. They destroyed at least $100+ million in air defence and $200 million in helicopters.
Imagine if Ukraine had been given 1,000 in 2022 like they should have been.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 19, 2024 15:15:04 GMT
300+ Russian vehicles taken out near Novomikhailivka. Huge casualties for one town.
If Ukraine doesn't crack and can trade each small town for 300 or 500 vehicles then Russia is gonna run out without having gone very far.
They're losing 100-150 BMPs per month right now, and their factories claim to make 30 new ones. Once the storage is gone Russia won't be able to do massive six-month long offensives without saving up vehicles for years at a time.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 19, 2024 16:58:50 GMT
Looks like a rather expensive russian strategic bomber has fallen down? Ukraine claiming it was them. Really hope they’re not lying. Same mate! I've seen no video proof yet. If I remember right, one of the A-50s was shot down by russian air defence, but the air defence was trying to stop a long-range Ukrainian missile. Possibly an ancient Soviet S-200. I'd never heard of the S-200 before this war but it's an absolute beast and I love that its code name is "Gammon".
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Apr 19, 2024 17:14:51 GMT
The real question is, how many Ukrainians have fallen? Would love to know the real Russian death toll figure. Well over 100,000 I imagine, maybe even 200,000. Putin really has murdered so many of his own people by this unnecessary, devastating war. My guess is Ukraine will have lost significantly.
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Post by LDE76 on Apr 19, 2024 18:09:01 GMT
The professor versus the idiot: Timothy Snyder puts Empty-G back in her box. Further article where Dr Snyder talks about Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns, with particular reference to the war in Ukraine: snyder.substack.com/p/political-warfare-and-congress
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Post by cvillestokie on Apr 19, 2024 20:07:20 GMT
The professor versus the idiot: Timothy Snyder puts Empty-G back in her box. Further article where Dr Snyder talks about Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns, with particular reference to the war in Ukraine: snyder.substack.com/p/political-warfare-and-congressShe won’t care. She was likely bought by Putin years ago. Once she’s finished in Congress, she’ll “write” a book and probably be a host on some Newsmax channel.
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 19, 2024 23:55:39 GMT
Unrelated to this thread but would like to get mtrstudent or Bayerns perspective on the below. Is this correct? Harping on about this still, but I think it's always worth fact checking later on. Looks like Israel easily whacked the Iranian air defence system near Isfahan. Iran is dangerous and safe from invasion, but the posts about them being an unstoppable missile power do seem a bit much to me!
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Post by mtrstudent on Apr 20, 2024 14:08:42 GMT
Sounds like Ukraine is making enough of its own drones to do decent sized raids every few weeks.
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