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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 1, 2023 22:30:15 GMT
How long can this stalemate go on for? It must so utterly demoralising particularly for those on the ground......... Absolutely horrendous for those soldiers. Some Ukrainians have been injured several times and still gone back to their units. Maybe a surprise will break things, but I think you need a constant supply of ammo, tanks etc to keep fighting.Most Russian tank "production" is actually refurbishments. They removed 130 T-72/80s from storage over 6 months recently, and lost at least 330 of those in the same time, so the Russian tank fleet is shrinking. The same thing is happening with BMPs, artillery, ammo etc and eventually their army will crack like last year in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson. They dragged out almost every tank they had sitting around in garages, special dry air storage, training grounds etc in '22 and early '23 and that's what's keeping them going for now.
The best estimates I've seen are that Russia can maintain this rate for about a year. If the West sends aid like Biden etc want, then the Russian army will break sometime after that. It's why MAGA etc are blocking the aid, they want to slow down things so that Putin's army isn't destroyed and he can murder enough Ukrainians to win.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 2, 2023 18:06:25 GMT
Seeing a lot more night vision videos recently, it's changing war.
There's another one where an entire group of Russians try to cross a tree line and get taken out by artillery. Just little yellow blobs running around then explosions, not sure if I should post that one here though.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 2, 2023 18:10:01 GMT
Russia once again reached the edge of a little village called Stepove, north of Avdiivka.
That little red bulge sticking out from a tree/rail line is their progress since about October 12th.
Up to 700 m at a cost of thousands dead and wounded.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 3, 2023 15:57:48 GMT
Polish truckers have started blockading Ukraine.
Things are going badly right now because Putin knows how to use every political trick in the book. He has to, because if the West keeps helping Ukraine then the Russian army gets crushed.
Putin's intelligence agencies helped get trump elected last time and they're working on a repeat now and similar across Europe. The dictator lovers of MAGA are have stalled Ukraine aid for over a month.
These people want more innocents to die in the hope it'll force Ukraine to surrender so that the dictator can win.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 3, 2023 23:35:16 GMT
Thread showing more drone pictures, Russia lost another 3 tanks and 10 other armoured vehicles in an attack. Other pics show dozens of russian corpses. It's just a question of what runs out first this winter: Russian equipment and soldiers or Ukrainian ammunition. Republicans are delaying and maybe blocking new US aid, they're obviously hoping to help get Putin some kind of win.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 4, 2023 15:02:44 GMT
German company Rheinmetall upgraded 2024 production forecasts to 700,000 new shells. Ukraine needs about 3-4 million heavy shells per year to keep up the current pace. That's achievable with the western allies and if South Korea will sell a few. Ukraine wants more like 6-7 million to achieve a faster and less bloody victory but the West pussyfooted around so only a slow and bloody victory is possible now. Russian propaganda claims they will produce 2 million next year but that actually includes quite a lot of refurbished ones, not all new. It looks like Russia's warehouses are nearly empty, at least of some calibres. They had to go begging North Korea. EDIT: actually Russian production isn't expected to hit 2 million until 2025, according to quotes from western intelligence. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 4, 2023 15:05:45 GMT
Ukrainian counter-attack north of Avdiivka pushed the Russians back again. The limited video looked good - Russian losses and not many obvious Ukrainian ones.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 4, 2023 15:23:45 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 5, 2023 6:06:20 GMT
Russian arms exports dropped 50% from $16bn to $8bn. This means they have extra factory production that was gonna go overseas, but can now be sent to Ukraine. But it also means Rostec has lost its most profitable sales. Not good for russia long term.
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Post by wagsastokie on Dec 5, 2023 7:57:41 GMT
Russian arms exports dropped 50% from $16bn to $8bn. This means they have extra factory production that was gonna go overseas, but can now be sent to Ukraine. But it also means Rostec has lost its most profitable sales. Not good for russia long term. Which could also partly explain the slowness in fully arming Ukraine A drop of fifty percent of arms production must be made up somewhere As it’s highly unlikely in this ever more peaceful 🙄 world there’s less need |
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 5, 2023 16:11:11 GMT
Anniversary of when Ukraine agreed to disarm it's strategic bomber and nuclear forces.
Russia, the US and the UK gave security assurances that Ukraine's borders would be respected and protected.
With Republicans in power, it looks like the US is a liar whose word cannot be trusted. Only the UK is honouring what we said.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 5, 2023 19:54:31 GMT
Ukraine claimed they shot down a Russian Su-24 jet over the ocean and Russian airforce source just confirmed it.
Good news! Been far too long since Russian jets were falling out of the sky.
Rumour is it was a Patriot. Great systems that can shoot down things 160 km away, when the first system arrived in Kyiv, it took out 2 jets and 2 helicopters in a single strike, now Russia doesnt fly that close any more.
Sadly delivery was slow and there are only 2 systems in Ukraine.
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Post by LDE76 on Dec 5, 2023 20:26:48 GMT
A depressing analysis from the Ukrainian side, which concludes that Putin seeks victory at any cost.
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Post by questionable on Dec 5, 2023 21:41:26 GMT
A depressing analysis from the Ukrainian side, which concludes that Putin seeks victory at any cost. There’s a post on Twitter now of a recent HIIMARS strike on a Russian convoy, talk about devastation but Christ it’s horrendous dozens of dead Russians ripped apart. For me the more dead Russians brings this to an end faster. |
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Post by adri2008 on Dec 6, 2023 7:16:24 GMT
A depressing analysis from the Ukrainian side, which concludes that Putin seeks victory at any cost. Good summary - there was never any way Putin could ever leave Ukraine in defeat once he decided to attack. He'd at best be deposed or more likely killed. The Russians would literally have to run out of troops to send into the grinder. The likely end game is going to be a peace deal based on current territorial positions, probably within the year - the west is already losing its appetite for support and once the US pulls the plug, the war ends. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 6, 2023 16:28:33 GMT
A depressing analysis from the Ukrainian side, which concludes that Putin seeks victory at any cost. Good summary - there was never any way Putin could ever leave Ukraine in defeat once he decided to attack. He'd at best be deposed or more likely killed. The Russians would literally have to run out of troops to send into the grinder. The likely end game is going to be a peace deal based on current territorial positions, probably within the year - the west is already losing its appetite for support and once the US pulls the plug, the war ends. We just have to send enough military aid to defeat the russian army. Ukraine has been killing tanks, IFVs, jets etc and absorbing artillery shells at a rate far faster than Russia can produce. Even Russian 2025 production forecasts are far below what they'd need to maintain this rate. Once Ukraine gets fire superiority they win. But MAGA wants the dictatorship to win so they're trying to strangle Ukraine, by cutting ammo so that they can no longer destroy the russian army faster than it can be built. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 6, 2023 16:34:48 GMT
Russia getting lots of roubles for oil and gas this year, but there's a catch - they sold less oil and also got a lower $ price.
But the weaker rouble means each dollar gets them more roubles.
Early on people said Putin was smart because the rouble went stronger, and I didn't understand why that was obviously good or bad. The Russian budget is being helped by a weak rouble... For now.
Also, Gazprom has cut 2024 planned investment by ~60%.
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Post by adri2008 on Dec 7, 2023 4:13:30 GMT
Good summary - there was never any way Putin could ever leave Ukraine in defeat once he decided to attack. He'd at best be deposed or more likely killed. The Russians would literally have to run out of troops to send into the grinder. The likely end game is going to be a peace deal based on current territorial positions, probably within the year - the west is already losing its appetite for support and once the US pulls the plug, the war ends. We just have to send enough military aid to defeat the russian army. Ukraine has been killing tanks, IFVs, jets etc and absorbing artillery shells at a rate far faster than Russia can produce. Even Russian 2025 production forecasts are far below what they'd need to maintain this rate. Once Ukraine gets fire superiority they win. But MAGA wants the dictatorship to win so they're trying to strangle Ukraine, by cutting ammo so that they can no longer destroy the russian army faster than it can be built. I just don't think either side is going to get the overwhelming superiority (and/or air superiority) that's needed by the attacking force to break through hardened defences so you are stuck with mass casualties on both sides in exchange for a few miles and little overall strategic importance. It's now down to how long the west wishes to support such a stalemate. |
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Post by lordb on Dec 7, 2023 7:39:32 GMT
We just have to send enough military aid to defeat the russian army. Ukraine has been killing tanks, IFVs, jets etc and absorbing artillery shells at a rate far faster than Russia can produce. Even Russian 2025 production forecasts are far below what they'd need to maintain this rate. Once Ukraine gets fire superiority they win. But MAGA wants the dictatorship to win so they're trying to strangle Ukraine, by cutting ammo so that they can no longer destroy the russian army faster than it can be built. I just don't think either side is going to get the overwhelming superiority (and/or air superiority) that's needed by the attacking force to break through hardened defences so you are stuck with mass casualties on both sides in exchange for a few miles and little overall strategic importance. It's now down to how long the west wishes to support such a stalemate. If Biden wins again then that piles the pressure on Putin |
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 7, 2023 21:43:12 GMT
It's looking more and more like republicans have successfully blocked any vote on Ukraine aid in 2023.
They obviously hope the dictator will be able to take advantage of Ukraine's winter ammo shortage to kill as many Ukrainians as possible and make some advances, which they could then use as propaganda about "Russia can't lose so we shouldn't waste more resources".
It's absolutely fucking sick and insane. These people would have left us to face the Axis on our own and been fine with Europe under the Nazi jackboot.
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Post by wannabee on Dec 7, 2023 23:27:31 GMT
It's looking more and more like republicans have successfully blocked any vote on Ukraine aid in 2023. They obviously hope the dictator will be able to take advantage of Ukraine's winter ammo shortage to kill as many Ukrainians as possible and make some advances, which they could then use as propaganda about "Russia can't lose so we shouldn't waste more resources". It's absolutely fucking sick and insane. These people would have left us to face the Axis on our own and been fine with Europe under the Nazi jackboot. I assume you mean the Republican Party as opposed to Russia Estimates range between 20M to 40M Russian Military and Civilian Deaths in WW11 and most Historians acknowledge the Battles of Stalingrad and Kursk marked the turning point in WW11, certainly in Europe Pessimistically I and others predicted a Stalemate in the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the terms of the Ceasefire will determine whether further outbreaks continue |
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Post by salopstick on Dec 8, 2023 15:12:06 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 9, 2023 5:08:39 GMT
Russia has lost over 300 armoured vehicles attacking Avdiivka so far, including 100 tanks.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 10, 2023 4:14:03 GMT
I follow tons of russian sources and what I'm seeing is lots more complaints about ammo quality nowadays.
They're using shells made in 2023, the tank crews seem happy but mortar and artillery teams complain. The units given North Korean shells whine the most.
According to the US supreme commander, Europe, Russia has fired ~7 million shells a year so far. Russian contracts say they've boosted production to ~1 million/year.
It looks like the warehouses must be getting bare, the sources I trust say enough left for this major winter offensive and maybe through 2024. Then Russia has to cut back by like 75%.
There've been loads of stories of Russian shell problems before but I never posted them because they had plenty in storage. But the evidence has persuaded me now that if Ukraine gets through 2024 then russia will have ammo problems.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 10, 2023 17:49:18 GMT
Month 2 of the new Battle for Avdiivka
Russia is ~3 km away from seeing the main supply road and being able to shoot at it, ~8 km away from cutting off all of Avdiivka.
In the last month Ukraine has only lost bits of ground. There are a couple of places where Russia advanced ~700 metres since last month, but they can't go much further until they straighten up their lines, which would take 1-2 months at this rate. So maybe 3-4 months to advance 1 km, not quick enough to take the town as a present for Putin's "election" win next March.
But in the first month, Russia took about 1.5 km, if they can do that a couple more times then Ukraine would have to choose whether to retreat or not. The advance cost them 200+ armoured vehicles and thousands of soldiers in a week or so, they can't do it every week but I expect they're preparing to try again.
The battle remains on a knife edge, and it depends on whether Ukraine has enough artillery, mortars & ammo.
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Post by hcstokie on Dec 10, 2023 19:51:58 GMT
Month 2 of the new Battle for AvdiivkaRussia is ~3 km away from seeing the main supply road and being able to shoot at it, ~8 km away from cutting off all of Avdiivka. In the last month Ukraine has only lost bits of ground. There are a couple of places where Russia advanced ~700 metres since last month, but they can't go much further until they straighten up their lines, which would take 1-2 months at this rate. So maybe 3-4 months to advance 1 km, not quick enough to take the town as a present for Putin's "election" win next March. But in the first month, Russia took about 1.5 km, if they can do that a couple more times then Ukraine would have to choose whether to retreat or not. The advance cost them 200+ armoured vehicles and thousands of soldiers in a week or so, they can't do it every week but I expect they're preparing to try again. The battle remains on a knife edge, and it depends on whether Ukraine has enough artillery, mortars & ammo. I suspect Ukraine have been preparing for another Bakhmut scenario and will bleed Russia dry. Wouldn’t surprise me if there is a tunnel or two supplementing their supply roads. |
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Post by wannabee on Dec 10, 2023 20:13:38 GMT
Month 2 of the new Battle for AvdiivkaRussia is ~3 km away from seeing the main supply road and being able to shoot at it, ~8 km away from cutting off all of Avdiivka. In the last month Ukraine has only lost bits of ground. There are a couple of places where Russia advanced ~700 metres since last month, but they can't go much further until they straighten up their lines, which would take 1-2 months at this rate. So maybe 3-4 months to advance 1 km, not quick enough to take the town as a present for Putin's "election" win next March. But in the first month, Russia took about 1.5 km, if they can do that a couple more times then Ukraine would have to choose whether to retreat or not. The advance cost them 200+ armoured vehicles and thousands of soldiers in a week or so, they can't do it every week but I expect they're preparing to try again. The battle remains on a knife edge, and it depends on whether Ukraine has enough artillery, mortars & ammo. Apparently they don't according to a Mortar Gunner in the 47th Mechanised Brigade in Avdviivka www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldier-stopped-shooting-on-russians-running-out-of-ammo-2023-12 |
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 11, 2023 5:05:02 GMT
Month 2 of the new Battle for AvdiivkaRussia is ~3 km away from seeing the main supply road and being able to shoot at it, ~8 km away from cutting off all of Avdiivka. In the last month Ukraine has only lost bits of ground. There are a couple of places where Russia advanced ~700 metres since last month, but they can't go much further until they straighten up their lines, which would take 1-2 months at this rate. So maybe 3-4 months to advance 1 km, not quick enough to take the town as a present for Putin's "election" win next March. But in the first month, Russia took about 1.5 km, if they can do that a couple more times then Ukraine would have to choose whether to retreat or not. The advance cost them 200+ armoured vehicles and thousands of soldiers in a week or so, they can't do it every week but I expect they're preparing to try again. The battle remains on a knife edge, and it depends on whether Ukraine has enough artillery, mortars & ammo. Apparently they don't according to a Mortar Gunner in the 47th Mechanised Brigade in Avdviivka www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldier-stopped-shooting-on-russians-running-out-of-ammo-2023-12Mortar ammo has apparently been a serious pain point. The local commanders are begging for them but it's mostly artillery ammo that gets the headlines. There are problems but I don't think it's critical there just yet because units are still posting videos of Russians getting mown down by shells and drones in the same shell holes they were dying in three weeks ago. A big Ukrainian retreat is what critical would look like. It could happen at any time but it's not guaranteed IMO. |
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Post by satoshi on Dec 11, 2023 11:37:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2023 12:01:11 GMT
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