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Post by musik on Nov 27, 2023 12:33:40 GMT
Migrants from Africa and the Middle East are coming up north to Finland on bikes, and it's -20°C there.
Some people mean it's part of a plan from Russia, and that they've sent them there. It's a President Election in Russia in March.
This is what Russian political scientist Margarita Zavadskaya claims:
- In this way, the Russian propaganda can point out that "the West is not friendly, they don't even let refugees in".
(Source: Aftonbladet and others)
To me it doesn't make sense!
I doubt it's true.
The only thing Russia might be showing is: "they're just as bad as we are - for not letting them in, since we haven't either."
It's not logical.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 27, 2023 15:04:56 GMT
Drone video of russian vehicles lost southwest of Avdiivka. Almost all the other videos were northeast.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 27, 2023 15:07:16 GMT
Some people mean it's part of a plan from Russia, and that they've sent them there. It's a President Election in Russia in March. This is what Russian political scientist Margarita Zavadskaya claims: - In this way, the Russian propaganda can point out that "the West is not friendly, they don't even let refugees in". (Source: Aftonbladet and others) To me it doesn't make sense! I doubt it's true. The only thing Russia might be showing is: "they're just as bad as we are - for not letting them in, since we haven't either." It's not logical. Desperate & poor immigrants cause social problems in Europe and they help to get Putin lovers elected. Most of the vocal immigrant haters like trump, Orban, Wilders love dictators and want to help Putin win. Is it the same in nordic countries? |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 27, 2023 15:11:56 GMT
As expected last year, russia hasn't got enough missiles for strikes all year round any more. But they've been saving them up for a winter terror campaign, the intel expects anywhere up to 1,000 missiles to attack. 😢
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 27, 2023 15:23:38 GMT
2,500th russian tank loss visually confirmed. Insane.
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Post by musik on Nov 27, 2023 16:11:22 GMT
Some people mean it's part of a plan from Russia, and that they've sent them there. It's a President Election in Russia in March. This is what Russian political scientist Margarita Zavadskaya claims: - In this way, the Russian propaganda can point out that "the West is not friendly, they don't even let refugees in". (Source: Aftonbladet and others) To me it doesn't make sense! I doubt it's true. The only thing Russia might be showing is: "they're just as bad as we are - for not letting them in, since we haven't either." It's not logical. Desperate & poor immigrants cause social problems in Europe and they help to get Putin lovers elected. Most of the vocal immigrant haters like trump, Orban, Wilders love dictators and want to help Putin win. Is it the same in nordic countries? I don't know any immigrant haters, so I don't know what they like. It's the argument I'm not accepting. "The west is not friendly, they don't even let refugees in." I can't imagine Russia being stupid. So stupid they first don't let the refugees from Africa and the Middle East in, and then as the next step pointing fingers at Finland for doing the same thing. That's not an argument in the first place. I can't imagine the russian people being nuts. It would be hilarious, if it wasn't desperate people involved. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 27, 2023 17:31:52 GMT
Russians say they retreated from Stepove north of Avdiivka. Maybe pushed all the way back to the trainline to the east.
Russia's attacking Stepove and then they still need another town behind that to cut Ukraine's main supply route.
They took the trainline on 10/11th October at huge cost. Looks like ~zero westward progress in 7 weeks for thousands of dead russians.
Behind the Trainline there's a really big, open field so russia has been taking more losses just to send supplies and reinforcements. If Stepove and other flanks hold, it's a good opportunity to bleed the evil fuckers out over winter.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Nov 28, 2023 9:55:15 GMT
Russians say they retreated from Stepove north of Avdiivka. Maybe pushed all the way back to the trainline to the east. Russia's attacking Stepove and then they still need another town behind that to cut Ukraine's main supply route. They took the trainline on 10/11th October at huge cost. Looks like ~zero westward progress in 7 weeks for thousands of dead russians. Behind the Trainline there's a really big, open field so russia has been taking more losses just to send supplies and reinforcements. If Stepove and other flanks hold, it's a good opportunity to bleed the evil fuckers out over winter. Given the media and fellow luvvies don't care about this war anymore, does anyone know who is actually in the better position? Is there a peace deal coming anytime soon? And how many in total do we think have been slaughtered? This ghastly conflict feels a million miles away from our TV screens these days. Give it another 6 months and the same will be said of the Gaza war. |
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Post by noustie on Nov 28, 2023 11:10:54 GMT
Russians say they retreated from Stepove north of Avdiivka. Maybe pushed all the way back to the trainline to the east. Russia's attacking Stepove and then they still need another town behind that to cut Ukraine's main supply route. They took the trainline on 10/11th October at huge cost. Looks like ~zero westward progress in 7 weeks for thousands of dead russians. Behind the Trainline there's a really big, open field so russia has been taking more losses just to send supplies and reinforcements. If Stepove and other flanks hold, it's a good opportunity to bleed the evil fuckers out over winter. Given the media and fellow luvvies don't care about this war anymore, does anyone know who is actually in the better position? Is there a peace deal coming anytime soon? And how many in total do we think have been slaughtered? This ghastly conflict feels a million miles away from our TV screens these days. Give it another 6 months and the same will be said of the Gaza war. Haven't seen Zelenskyy on TV trying look well hard for ages! Wouldn't be surprised if they end up in a stalemate and diplomacy leads to a conclusion they could have had at the very beginning rather than pointlessly spunking collateral damage all over the place for 2-3 years. |
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Post by musik on Nov 28, 2023 11:13:31 GMT
Russians say they retreated from Stepove north of Avdiivka. Maybe pushed all the way back to the trainline to the east. Russia's attacking Stepove and then they still need another town behind that to cut Ukraine's main supply route. They took the trainline on 10/11th October at huge cost. Looks like ~zero westward progress in 7 weeks for thousands of dead russians. Behind the Trainline there's a really big, open field so russia has been taking more losses just to send supplies and reinforcements. If Stepove and other flanks hold, it's a good opportunity to bleed the evil fuckers out over winter. Given the media and fellow luvvies don't care about this war anymore, does anyone know who is actually in the better position? Is there a peace deal coming anytime soon? And how many in total do we think have been slaughtered? This ghastly conflict feels a million miles away from our TV screens these days. Give it another 6 months and the same will be said of the Gaza war. The general view on this in the debate up here is that noone will give up and it can go on for hundreds of years - or as long as other countries support. |
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Post by wannabee on Nov 28, 2023 11:30:04 GMT
Russians say they retreated from Stepove north of Avdiivka. Maybe pushed all the way back to the trainline to the east. Russia's attacking Stepove and then they still need another town behind that to cut Ukraine's main supply route. They took the trainline on 10/11th October at huge cost. Looks like ~zero westward progress in 7 weeks for thousands of dead russians. Behind the Trainline there's a really big, open field so russia has been taking more losses just to send supplies and reinforcements. If Stepove and other flanks hold, it's a good opportunity to bleed the evil fuckers out over winter. Given the media and fellow luvvies don't care about this war anymore, does anyone know who is actually in the better position? Is there a peace deal coming anytime soon? And how many in total do we think have been slaughtered? This ghastly conflict feels a million miles away from our TV screens these days. Give it another 6 months and the same will be said of the Gaza war. Mother nature has taken a hand with the Mother of all Storms hitting Southern Ukraine and Crimea The Moscow Times called it the Storm of the Century About 2M have lost power in Russia/Ukraine and vast areas have been swept away in floods. Who's to say what the respective positions will be like once it's abated An added bonus was that Russia couldn't send any Drones due to high winds I expect both sides are hunkering down in their positions until next Spring www.newsweek.com/russias-crimea-defense-line-washed-away-brutal-storm-ukrainian-report-1846971 |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2023 12:01:46 GMT
Desperate & poor immigrants cause social problems in Europe and they help to get Putin lovers elected. Most of the vocal immigrant haters like trump, Orban, Wilders love dictators and want to help Putin win. Is it the same in nordic countries? I don't know any immigrant haters, so I don't know what they like. It's the argument I'm not accepting. "The west is not friendly, they don't even let refugees in." I can't imagine Russia being stupid. So stupid they first don't let the refugees from Africa and the Middle East in, and then as the next step pointing fingers at Finland for doing the same thing. That's not an argument in the first place. I can't imagine the russian people being nuts. It would be hilarious, if it wasn't desperate people involved. When you control the news in full and block outside reports criticizing the State, you can say and do pretty much anything. In the UK, we have rampant corruption in politics yet there isn’t outrage on the streets. That’s with reports going against it. Russia have controlled the narrative for so long, I don’t know what kind of thought goes through people’s minds when they hear this. My wife had a Russian friend once. Her general response to these things was that in Russia, you did not speak out because you were scared that everything you owned was monitored and you’d be arrested. I can’t imagine that any election that they’ll hold will be a fair one anyways. |
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Post by musik on Nov 28, 2023 13:04:50 GMT
I don't know any immigrant haters, so I don't know what they like. It's the argument I'm not accepting. "The west is not friendly, they don't even let refugees in." I can't imagine Russia being stupid. So stupid they first don't let the refugees from Africa and the Middle East in, and then as the next step pointing fingers at Finland for doing the same thing. That's not an argument in the first place. I can't imagine the russian people being nuts. It would be hilarious, if it wasn't desperate people involved. When you control the news in full and block outside reports criticizing the State, you can say and do pretty much anything. In the UK, we have rampant corruption in politics yet there isn’t outrage on the streets. That’s with reports going against it. Russia have controlled the narrative for so long, I don’t know what kind of thought goes through people’s minds when they hear this. My wife had a Russian friend once. Her general response to these things was that in Russia, you did not speak out because you were scared that everything you owned was monitored and you’d be arrested. I can’t imagine that any election that they’ll hold will be a fair one anyways. It's like having Pearson as penalty taker, and then see him blame Hoever for not scoring on the rebound since there's only the keeper to beat. Maybe they have pictured the west to be more wealthy in their media and they are excused themselves. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 28, 2023 14:39:34 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 28, 2023 14:49:40 GMT
Given the media and fellow luvvies don't care about this war anymore, does anyone know who is actually in the better position? Is there a peace deal coming anytime soon? And how many in total do we think have been slaughtered? Casualties are really uncertain, Our MOD says 300k+ russian soldiers KIA/WIA/MIA. Others (e.g. Wagner) could be 100k+ more. Ukrainian casualties lower but unknown. Based on the stuff we can see like tanks blown up, artillery use etc... Ukraine is still on course to victory because russia can't produce enough to replace what they're losing. Russia got a huge infusion from stockyards and shells from North Korea and they're spending like a lottery winner. It makes sense, Putin has ideological allies in the west like trump/MAGA, who want the dictatorship to win so Putin is throwing everything into looking strong until then. It's all about how quickly you can build or destroy stuff. MAGA is now strangling aid to Ukraine so they're running low on shells and will eventually run low on other stuff. That means that Russians can advance and lose less stuff doing so. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 28, 2023 14:51:33 GMT
Wouldn't be surprised if they end up in a stalemate and diplomacy leads to a conclusion they could have had at the very beginning rather than pointlessly spunking collateral damage all over the place for 2-3 years. Chamberlain-ing this didn't work in 1938 and it won't work now. And we're in an even easier position than Chamberlain. He would have had to send his own people to war to stop WW2, we just have to send weaponry. If we fail, we will be far stupider and weaker than Neville was. EDIT: also Ukrainians want to fight for their freedom, like we did under Churchill. Last polls showed 80% support. The MAGA idea is that the US will cut aid -> Ukraine can't destroy the russian army quickly enough -> Ukrainian casualties increase -> after a few hundred thousand more dead innocent Ukrainians, maybe the Ukrainians will surrender. It's a fucking horrible plan that costs more money and kills more innocents. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 28, 2023 21:04:08 GMT
Guy serving in Ukraine says the army issued cold weather kit is decent. The russians they've captured and killed didn't have any cold weather kit yet.
Just one story from one lad, but something to keep an eye on.
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Post by wannabee on Nov 28, 2023 23:52:42 GMT
Wouldn't be surprised if they end up in a stalemate and diplomacy leads to a conclusion they could have had at the very beginning rather than pointlessly spunking collateral damage all over the place for 2-3 years. Chamberlain-ing this didn't work in 1938 and it won't work now. And we're in an even easier position than Chamberlain. He would have had to send his own people to war to stop WW2, we just have to send weaponry. If we fail, we will be far stupider and weaker than Neville was. EDIT: also Ukrainians want to fight for their freedom, like we did under Churchill. Last polls showed 80% support. The MAGA idea is that the US will cut aid -> Ukraine can't destroy the russian army quickly enough -> Ukrainian casualties increase -> after a few hundred thousand more dead innocent Ukrainians, maybe the Ukrainians will surrender. It's a fucking horrible plan that costs more money and kills more innocents. The position at that time in WW11, as it is now in Ukraine, is not as straightforward as you would think. Chamberlain-ing, as you put it, went far beyond 1938, obviously as he remained PM until 10th May 1940 His natural successor Lord Halifax declined the position as PM in favour of Churchill as he felt he would make a better War time leader. Halifax, and many others, favoured a Peace Treaty with Hitler to be brokered by your friend Mussolini, who had yet to enter the War. Remember this was a few weeks before Dunkirk which many view as a glorious retreat but was actually a humiliation Halifax did however become extremely useful to the War effort as after declining to become PM he became UK Ambassador to US and US eventually entered into WW11 and changed the course of history I have no doubt the Brave Ukrainian Soldiers have nothing but Victory in their minds, albeit there will be a lull in hostilities until Spring. Unfortunately for them their fate doesn't rest in their own hands and is subject to the whims of other Countries and their appetite to supply Military Aid I think it was Noustie who said this conflict is likely to end in Stalemate and I find it hard to disagree with him All conflicts end in a Peace Treaty, whether the territorial boundaries drawn and terms are equitable will determine whether further conflict will erupt at a future date. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 29, 2023 16:39:02 GMT
Ukraine is struggling with ammunition.
The Putin lovers in the republican party are blocking more aid. They want to help a brutal dictator kill as many innocent Ukrianians as possible in the hope that the democracy will eventually be so beaten and bloody that they will cave and surrender.
It's fucking sick.
European aid is slow but current plans are enough for a good hope at Ukrainian victory, it just means a longer and bloodier war.
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 29, 2023 16:43:32 GMT
Chamberlain-ing, as you put it, went far beyond 1938, obviously as he remained PM until 10th May 1940 His natural successor Lord Halifax declined the position as PM in favour of Churchill as he felt he would make a better War time leader. Halifax, and many others, favoured a Peace Treaty with Hitler to be brokered by your friend Mussolini, who had yet to enter the War. Remember this was a few weeks before Dunkirk which many view as a glorious retreat but was actually a humiliation By Chamberlain-ing I meant the "peace in our time" bit. By surrending to Putin now we let him absorb Ukraine, remilitarise and get hundreds of thousands more slave soldiers from the new territories. He will then launch a new invasion when ready, but this time it will be far worse because his factories will be at full speed, China will be supporting him and China will be ready to go at Taiwan as well. The people begging the West to surrender to a brutal dictator are pushing a policy that I see as far worse than Chamberlain's in 1938 because this time we don't have to send any soldiers, only a fraction of our own defence budget to do its fucking job and defend our interests. |
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Post by adri2008 on Nov 29, 2023 17:20:54 GMT
Chamberlain-ing, as you put it, went far beyond 1938, obviously as he remained PM until 10th May 1940 His natural successor Lord Halifax declined the position as PM in favour of Churchill as he felt he would make a better War time leader. Halifax, and many others, favoured a Peace Treaty with Hitler to be brokered by your friend Mussolini, who had yet to enter the War. Remember this was a few weeks before Dunkirk which many view as a glorious retreat but was actually a humiliation By Chamberlain-ing I meant the "peace in our time" bit. By surrending to Putin now we let him absorb Ukraine, remilitarise and get hundreds of thousands more slave soldiers from the new territories. He will then launch a new invasion when ready, but this time it will be far worse because his factories will be at full speed, China will be supporting him and China will be ready to go at Taiwan as well. The people begging the West to surrender to a brutal dictator are pushing a policy that I see as far worse than Chamberlain's in 1938 because this time we don't have to send any soldiers, only a fraction of our own defence budget to do its fucking job and defend our interests. I don't think the US in particular are that bothered about the Ukraine itself but they've seen it as a means to weaken Russia knowing full well that Putin couldn't possibly back out of it. You could argue they've provided just enough resources for Ukraine to achieve this whilst not enough for a decisive victory. At the end of the day, Ukraine has less men to put in the grinder than Russia - it'll reach a point where there simply aren't enough soldiers left to achieve anything (if they aren't there already) and a deal will have to be made. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 29, 2023 17:30:30 GMT
I don't think the US in particular are that bothered about the Ukraine itself but they've seen it as a means to weaken Russia knowing full well that Putin couldn't possibly back out of it. You could argue they've provided just enough resources for Ukraine to achieve this whilst not enough for a decisive victory. At the end of the day, Ukraine has less men to put in the grinder than Russia - it'll reach a point where there simply aren't enough soldiers left to achieve anything (if they aren't there already) and a deal will have to be made. I think the first step was to stabilise things and then to go for victory, Biden asked for enough money for victory but the republicans want Putin to win so they're slow walking it. The "draining russia" idea doesn't make sense to me. Ukrainian victory would be cheaper and would destroy the russian army anyway. The claim is that the US decided to wait around just so Russia could dig up a few more T-54/55 to be destroyed? That's crazy to me. I see war as being about how quickly you can get soldiers, supplies etc to the front. Ukraine has shown it can destroy russian stuff faster than Russia can make it, which eventually causes a collapse. It happened in Kyiv then Kharkiv then Kherson. Give them the weapons and they'll do it again, it's just that there are people who want Russia to win who are trying to say it can't be done so we need to surrender and give Putin a win. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 29, 2023 17:40:02 GMT
At the end of the day, Ukraine has less men to put in the grinder than Russia - it'll reach a point where there simply aren't enough soldiers left to achieve anything (if they aren't there already) and a deal will have to be made. Oh when it comes to soldiers I saw a Danish intel officer and a historian talk about this. Even high estimates of Ukrainian casualties are way below the rates that countries absorbed in WW1. So with national will, Ukraine should be able to maintain this rate for 5 years or more. Russia's problem is that if Ukraine is supplied by the west, Russia only has the ammo and equipment to kill Ukrainians at this rate for another year or so. Then the Russian army will be ripped to shreds and forced out. So Putin needs either huge supplies (China) or less for Ukraine (Trump/MAGA). China isn't stepping up so his most important ally is Trump. That's why all russian propaganda is about how there is a stalemate, russia is too strong to be beaten, the west must surrender etc. Putin is desperate for trump to save him, and he needs western aid to be slowed so that his army isn't obviously being pushed out before trump is in power. |
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Post by adri2008 on Nov 29, 2023 17:50:04 GMT
I don't think the US in particular are that bothered about the Ukraine itself but they've seen it as a means to weaken Russia knowing full well that Putin couldn't possibly back out of it. You could argue they've provided just enough resources for Ukraine to achieve this whilst not enough for a decisive victory. At the end of the day, Ukraine has less men to put in the grinder than Russia - it'll reach a point where there simply aren't enough soldiers left to achieve anything (if they aren't there already) and a deal will have to be made. I think the first step was to stabilise things and then to go for victory, Biden asked for enough money for victory but the republicans want Putin to win so they're slow walking it. The "draining russia" idea doesn't make sense to me. Ukrainian victory would be cheaper and would destroy the russian army anyway. The claim is that the US decided to wait around just so Russia could dig up a few more T-54/55 to be destroyed? That's crazy to me. I see war as being about how quickly you can get soldiers, supplies etc to the front. Ukraine has shown it can destroy russian stuff faster than Russia can make it, which eventually causes a collapse. It happened in Kyiv then Kharkiv then Kherson. Give them the weapons and they'll do it again, it's just that there are people who want Russia to win who are trying to say it can't be done so we need to surrender and give Putin a win. I think the US is happy with a war of attrition - it's not their people getting killed after all. The end of the war won't be sold as a surrender - it'll be something that both sides can sell as a victory. Ukraine: we stopped the Russian invasion. Russia: we liberated Russian regions under Ukrainian oppression. Putin will take it as a win and remain in power. I suspect the wheels will be in motion for this already. |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 29, 2023 18:23:26 GMT
I think the US is happy with a war of attrition - it's not their people getting killed after all. The end of the war won't be sold as a surrender - it'll be something that both sides can sell as a victory. Ukraine: we stopped the Russian invasion. Russia: we liberated Russian regions under Ukrainian oppression. Putin will take it as a win and remain in power. I suspect the wheels will be in motion for this already. Doesn't make sense to me. Attrition is far more expensive, gives time for Putin allies to swing a victory for him, and for russia to build factories. The narrative makes sense in a Tweet, but military planners run scenarios, counting costs, production etc. Why spend loads more money to increase the risk of defeat when you can spend less money to destroy the russian army, remove the threat and have a much better chance at victory? I don't think our military leaders are that stupid and incompetent. I think that's why Biden's 2024 funding request fits with Ukrainian victory in 2025/26. Re: a peace treaty I don't think the Ukrainians are stupid enough to believe that, nor are our military planners because they hopefully work with the facts they have and not some media narrative. Trump/Putin etc might be able to establish a russian victory and set up the next invasions of Taiwan and Ukraine, but that's a choice. Biden and most European leaders are committing for Ukrainian victory, it's just a matter of sending the weapons and kit. |
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Post by wannabee on Nov 29, 2023 18:58:10 GMT
Chamberlain-ing, as you put it, went far beyond 1938, obviously as he remained PM until 10th May 1940 His natural successor Lord Halifax declined the position as PM in favour of Churchill as he felt he would make a better War time leader. Halifax, and many others, favoured a Peace Treaty with Hitler to be brokered by your friend Mussolini, who had yet to enter the War. Remember this was a few weeks before Dunkirk which many view as a glorious retreat but was actually a humiliation By Chamberlain-ing I meant the "peace in our time" bit. By surrending to Putin now we let him absorb Ukraine, remilitarise and get hundreds of thousands more slave soldiers from the new territories. He will then launch a new invasion when ready, but this time it will be far worse because his factories will be at full speed, China will be supporting him and China will be ready to go at Taiwan as well. The people begging the West to surrender to a brutal dictator are pushing a policy that I see as far worse than Chamberlain's in 1938 because this time we don't have to send any soldiers, only a fraction of our own defence budget to do its fucking job and defend our interests. I don't think we are saying much different In the unedited version of my post I was pointing out that appeasement was still very popular in Britain up to Chamberlain's resignation in May 1940. By that time Hitler had invaded Poland, Denmark , Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and France I went on to say that the Ukrainians desire to fight if not matched by Western support will fail In comparison to WW11 my contention was that without US entry in the War the outcome could have been very different as is the case in Ukraine |
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 30, 2023 19:06:16 GMT
Bad news. Boeing has delayed delivery of longer range bombs to Ukraine. They should now arrive spring 2024, they were originally hoped to be there by now 😔
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Post by mtrstudent on Nov 30, 2023 21:23:45 GMT
Russia struck a Ukrainian airbase, fortunately it seems they only destroyed a decoy.
Really convincing work, great job by whoever built it.
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Post by Olgrligm on Dec 1, 2023 12:44:06 GMT
I don't know the significance of this, partly because I have no idea how you can get away with conducting this kind of poll in Russia, but support for the war in Russia seems to be dropping. In February, 22% said they supported the war and wanted troops to stay in Ukraine until all war objectives are achieved. That's now 12%. In February, 47% said that they did not favour withdrawal and wanted the war to continue. That's now 33%. 40% have consistently wanted a Russian withdrawal over that period. Another poll says 55% want Russia to start negotiating peace. If those polls are an accurate reflection of public opinion in Russia...does it actually matter? Does public opinion have any bearing on whatever Putin fancies doing? Meanwhile, it looks like Russia are absorbing Belarus slowly. eng.belta.by/economics/view/belarus-russia-union-states-future-development-tasks-sketched-out-163725-2023/ |
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 1, 2023 13:21:28 GMT
How long can this stalemate go on for?
It must so utterly demoralising particularly for those on the ground.........
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