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Post by partickpotter on Jan 11, 2022 10:53:58 GMT
For me they’re grifting – if their main objective was Independence they wouldn’t have been so visceral in their approach to Alba. Salmond and Sturgeon obviously have beef but if the SNP’s primary focus is independence a party who could hoover up list votes should be hugely attractive as could have produced a Super Majority. Instead ‘Both Votes SNP’ showed up where their priorities lie as voting SNP in the list, given how it works, is a complete waste of time except in a couple of sections where the Tories and Labour actually take seats on the main ballot. I reckon they’ll nudge it again for the WM elections and then the wheels will fall off before the next SG election – there’s a lot of pissed off voters with Hobson’s Choice who may investigate other methods of transportation or just decide to postpone departure. The other angle to this is SNP when the lost last time had Sturgeon waiting in the wings so Salmond could take all the flak then step aside – the SNP haven’t gone anyone in the wings anywhere near that calibre. Hamza Yusaf is struggling to beat a nursery in the Ferry for fuck sake let alone taking on the baton for independence. For the rights and wrongs of it if I was a strategist for the Union side all I would do is ask NS to define what a women would be in an Independent Scotland. There are some interesting dynamics at play. Leaving aside the ongoing unanswered questions about the prospects for the Scottish economy in an independent Scotland, exemplified by the still unanswered question of currency and now further complicated by Brexit, there are some very personal issues at play. In the last election the SNP were aware that Salmond’s image put of female voters. With him being replaced by Sturgeon they hoped that problem would go away. Instead, they’ve found a new way to alienate female voters with their trans position. Additionally their mismanagement of so many aspects of government is undermining trust in the SNP. Not just recent coronavirus decisions, but the ferry fiasco can’t be doing them any favours in the islands not to mention that bizarre questionnaire asking 14 year olds about their thoughts on anal sex. It’s all a bit of a mess. It’s a reminder that government’s need strong opposition to perform well otherwise they tend to become complacent.
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Post by noustie on Jan 11, 2022 13:01:45 GMT
For me they’re grifting – if their main objective was Independence they wouldn’t have been so visceral in their approach to Alba. Salmond and Sturgeon obviously have beef but if the SNP’s primary focus is independence a party who could hoover up list votes should be hugely attractive as could have produced a Super Majority. Instead ‘Both Votes SNP’ showed up where their priorities lie as voting SNP in the list, given how it works, is a complete waste of time except in a couple of sections where the Tories and Labour actually take seats on the main ballot. I reckon they’ll nudge it again for the WM elections and then the wheels will fall off before the next SG election – there’s a lot of pissed off voters with Hobson’s Choice who may investigate other methods of transportation or just decide to postpone departure. The other angle to this is SNP when the lost last time had Sturgeon waiting in the wings so Salmond could take all the flak then step aside – the SNP haven’t gone anyone in the wings anywhere near that calibre. Hamza Yusaf is struggling to beat a nursery in the Ferry for fuck sake let alone taking on the baton for independence. For the rights and wrongs of it if I was a strategist for the Union side all I would do is ask NS to define what a women would be in an Independent Scotland. There are some interesting dynamics at play. Leaving aside the ongoing unanswered questions about the prospects for the Scottish economy in an independent Scotland, exemplified by the still unanswered question of currency and now further complicated by Brexit, there are some very personal issues at play. In the last election the SNP were aware that Salmond’s image put of female voters. With him being replaced by Sturgeon they hoped that problem would go away. Instead, they’ve found a new way to alienate female voters with their trans position. Additionally their mismanagement of so many aspects of government is undermining trust in the SNP. Not just recent coronavirus decisions, but the ferry fiasco can’t be doing them any favours in the islands not to mention that bizarre questionnaire asking 14 year olds about their thoughts on anal sex. It’s all a bit of a mess. It’s a reminder that government’s need strong opposition to perform well otherwise they tend to become complacent. That questionnaire basically sums up everything that is currently wrong with the SNP and shows where a lack of competition takes us - no way they would be doing shit like that 10 years ago. That they wouldn't answer the questions themselves is such an obvious own goal. The biggest mess for me personally is I'm an Independence supporter but I don't trust these to run the country as it is let alone form the foundations of a new state.
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Post by noustie on Jan 11, 2022 13:26:29 GMT
For me they’re grifting – if their main objective was Independence they wouldn’t have been so visceral in their approach to Alba. Salmond and Sturgeon obviously have beef but if the SNP’s primary focus is independence a party who could hoover up list votes should be hugely attractive as could have produced a Super Majority. Instead ‘Both Votes SNP’ showed up where their priorities lie as voting SNP in the list, given how it works, is a complete waste of time except in a couple of sections where the Tories and Labour actually take seats on the main ballot. I reckon they’ll nudge it again for the WM elections and then the wheels will fall off before the next SG election – there’s a lot of pissed off voters with Hobson’s Choice who may investigate other methods of transportation or just decide to postpone departure. The other angle to this is SNP when the lost last time had Sturgeon waiting in the wings so Salmond could take all the flak then step aside – the SNP haven’t gone anyone in the wings anywhere near that calibre. Hamza Yusaf is struggling to beat a nursery in the Ferry for fuck sake let alone taking on the baton for independence. For the rights and wrongs of it if I was a strategist for the Union side all I would do is ask NS to define what a women would be in an Independent Scotland. www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-snp-s-desperate-bid-to-save-sterlingisationThis is still the most difficult problem to solve, like Brexit people ultimately may decide its not an economic argument but unlike Brexit this would have a significant impact on anyone with a loan, mortgage or pension because the companies that provide these will have no interest in taking on the currency risk associated with payment or receipt of these in the new scottish currency so would continue to pay / ask for payments in GBP. Something the Brexit campaign stayed away from was providing anything like the white paper which basically gave opposition an opportunity to take shots at - the campaign seemed much more binary 'yes' or 'no' and we deal more with the detail tomorrow in comparison. In terms of the economic stuff there was obviously loads of questions but my tuppence on it was: 1) Salmond fucked up folding before the river card was even dealt - he should have stuck with Plan A for much longer because as soon as he offered Plan B, C and D it just invited more targets. It was like playing poker with your cards on display to your opponent. 2) I don't personally believe the economy was the issue - we're a nation of 6m folk with well defined education and health systems which could have come up with solutions. For me more the issue, and this is strengthened with Covid, the people don't beleive we have the ability to manage our economy. The currency as example loads of countries peg against the dollar but don't have access to their central banking system. Additionally why would we be so special that we would be the only sovereign state on earth not able to manage it's own affairs? Loads of countries gained independence from us and didn't resort to a mometary system based on bananas and sea shells. Circling back to Brexit - people believed via a majority that we could cope without the EU and didn't really need a 20 year action plan to base it on. Although I was for 'remain' at least the leave side showed some bollocks to give it a go even if for me it was potentially misplaced. 3) England would only naturally be obstinate in negotiations following a yes vote - that's only right that it would be robust. However, I don't believe, maybe naively, there would be appetite within the English electorate to block the democtratic will of Scotland. You wouldn't have your pants pulled down but there would be negotiation similar to the boring shit with Brexit. 4) I honestly now think the discussion is pointless anyway and wouldn't even get that far - all the Unionists have to do is ask Sturgeon to define a women in her vision for Scotland and the game is up. Jo Swinson raised her head above the trench on this issue when she had a chance of forming a coalition and got it blown clean off losing her own fairly safe seat.
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Post by followyoudown on Jan 11, 2022 20:17:36 GMT
www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-snp-s-desperate-bid-to-save-sterlingisationThis is still the most difficult problem to solve, like Brexit people ultimately may decide its not an economic argument but unlike Brexit this would have a significant impact on anyone with a loan, mortgage or pension because the companies that provide these will have no interest in taking on the currency risk associated with payment or receipt of these in the new scottish currency so would continue to pay / ask for payments in GBP. Something the Brexit campaign stayed away from was providing anything like the white paper which basically gave opposition an opportunity to take shots at - the campaign seemed much more binary 'yes' or 'no' and we deal more with the detail tomorrow in comparison. In terms of the economic stuff there was obviously loads of questions but my tuppence on it was: 1) Salmond fucked up folding before the river card was even dealt - he should have stuck with Plan A for much longer because as soon as he offered Plan B, C and D it just invited more targets. It was like playing poker with your cards on display to your opponent. 2) I don't personally believe the economy was the issue - we're a nation of 6m folk with well defined education and health systems which could have come up with solutions. For me more the issue, and this is strengthened with Covid, the people don't beleive we have the ability to manage our economy. The currency as example loads of countries peg against the dollar but don't have access to their central banking system. Additionally why would we be so special that we would be the only sovereign state on earth not able to manage it's own affairs? Loads of countries gained independence from us and didn't resort to a mometary system based on bananas and sea shells. Circling back to Brexit - people believed via a majority that we could cope without the EU and didn't really need a 20 year action plan to base it on. Although I was for 'remain' at least the leave side showed some bollocks to give it a go even if for me it was potentially misplaced. 3) England would only naturally be obstinate in negotiations following a yes vote - that's only right that it would be robust. However, I don't believe, maybe naively, there would be appetite within the English electorate to block the democtratic will of Scotland. You wouldn't have your pants pulled down but there would be negotiation similar to the boring shit with Brexit. 4) I honestly now think the discussion is pointless anyway and wouldn't even get that far - all the Unionists have to do is ask Sturgeon to define a women in her vision for Scotland and the game is up. Jo Swinson raised her head above the trench on this issue when she had a chance of forming a coalition and got it blown clean off losing her own fairly safe seat. The decision will ultimately be for the scottish people but as its a SNP aim to gain independence then give it to the EU they'd face some of the same problems as the irish border, nevermind there being a period when they wouldn't be part of the UK or the EU.
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Post by partickpotter on Jan 13, 2022 13:56:06 GMT
The SNP are doing their best to show that anything Johnson and Patel can do, they can do worser. This time in regards the independence of the judiciary. As you’ll see from the Herald article below it’s drawn a blistering response… 'A clear threat to the rule of law': Judges lambast plans for legal regulation reform in Scottish Government consultationEducation… fucked up. Health… fucked up. Economy… fucked up. Society… fucked up. Anyone looking for reassurance that with Boris (or indeed the Tories) out of the way that life will be all sunshine and roses should take a look at what is going on in Scotland (or Wales for that matter) because life ain’t so simple.
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Post by thevoid on Jan 13, 2022 14:20:23 GMT
The SNP are doing their best to show that anything Johnson and Patel can do, they can do worser. This time in regards the independence of the judiciary. As you’ll see from the Herald article below it’s drawn a blistering response… 'A clear threat to the rule of law': Judges lambast plans for legal regulation reform in Scottish Government consultationEducation… fucked up. Health… fucked up. Economy… fucked up. Society… fucked up. Anyone looking for reassurance that with Boris (or indeed the Tories) out of the way that life will be all sunshine and roses should take a look at what is going on in Scotland (or Wales for that matter) because life ain’t so simple. It'll be interesting to see how an independent Scotland goes on once the SNP can't blame the English or Westminster for everything.
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Post by noustie on Jan 13, 2022 14:40:01 GMT
The SNP are doing their best to show that anything Johnson and Patel can do, they can do worser. This time in regards the independence of the judiciary. As you’ll see from the Herald article below it’s drawn a blistering response… 'A clear threat to the rule of law': Judges lambast plans for legal regulation reform in Scottish Government consultationEducation… fucked up. Health… fucked up. Economy… fucked up. Society… fucked up. Anyone looking for reassurance that with Boris (or indeed the Tories) out of the way that life will be all sunshine and roses should take a look at what is going on in Scotland (or Wales for that matter) because life ain’t so simple. It'll be interesting to see how an independent Scotland goes on once the SNP can't blame the English or Westminster for everything. Same way as the WM government once it could no longer blame Brussels directly would be my guess If it ever does happen SNP will split into at least 2 bits I reckon and we'd vote for a centre right government by the second election.
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Post by noustie on Jan 13, 2022 14:42:24 GMT
The SNP are doing their best to show that anything Johnson and Patel can do, they can do worser. This time in regards the independence of the judiciary. As you’ll see from the Herald article below it’s drawn a blistering response… 'A clear threat to the rule of law': Judges lambast plans for legal regulation reform in Scottish Government consultationEducation… fucked up. Health… fucked up. Economy… fucked up. Society… fucked up. Anyone looking for reassurance that with Boris (or indeed the Tories) out of the way that life will be all sunshine and roses should take a look at what is going on in Scotland (or Wales for that matter) because life ain’t so simple. How murky the legal process has obviously been in high level legal cases like Salmond and Rangers, along with looking to remove juries off rape cases, troubles me a lot more than what the economic picture would look like.
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Post by thevoid on Jan 13, 2022 14:43:35 GMT
It'll be interesting to see how an independent Scotland goes on once the SNP can't blame the English or Westminster for everything. Same way as the WM government once it could no longer blame Brussels directly would be my guess If it ever does happen SNP will split into at least 2 bits I reckon and we'd vote for a centre right government by the second election. Oh there would be a lot of parallels between Brexit and Scots Indy. And people would be having pretty much the same arguments as they have been since the EU referendum.
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Post by lordb on Jan 13, 2022 14:57:34 GMT
The SNP are doing their best to show that anything Johnson and Patel can do, they can do worser. This time in regards the independence of the judiciary. As you’ll see from the Herald article below it’s drawn a blistering response… 'A clear threat to the rule of law': Judges lambast plans for legal regulation reform in Scottish Government consultationEducation… fucked up. Health… fucked up. Economy… fucked up. Society… fucked up. Anyone looking for reassurance that with Boris (or indeed the Tories) out of the way that life will be all sunshine and roses should take a look at what is going on in Scotland (or Wales for that matter) because life ain’t so simple. It'll be interesting to see how an independent Scotland goes on once the SNP can't blame the English or Westminster for everything. That's easy the rest of Scotland will blame Edinburgh for everything Edinburgh will continue to blame England for everything
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jan 15, 2022 12:20:18 GMT
Interesting from the electoral calculus site: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.htmlNot surprisingly, with more and more people finally seeing that the emperor has been bollock naked all along and turning against Johnson and his sleaze-ridden government, a minority Labour government with SNP would be most likely at the present time, with the SNP likely to take all 59 Scottish seats, wow. Probably about two and a half years to go until the next election so lots will change between now and then, not least that the Tories will have a new leader and regained support, but let's leave that aside for the time being and consider the implications of a minority Labour/SNP govt for the Union. Obviously, a condition of some kind of alignment will be a second official independence referendum, that's a given. However, I think a lot of Scots might see that a Labour/SNP national (ie UK) government is not as distasteful as a Tory government, the hatred of which has driven the pro-independence vote for years. So it might take a fair chunk of support away from independence. When it happens, the two parties would no doubt campaign along opposite lines. But, given the above, Starmer might be able to hold a second indyref, campaign for the Union and win it, thus preserving the status quo, which would probably play well with Unionists north and south of the border. Where that would leave the SNP and its relationship in government with Labour is a good question. The arrangement might even dissolve and a new general election would be required. But, as the saviour of the Union, the PM might be in a stronger position than he had been previously... All theoretical obviously and dependent on what the Tories do with Boris and how any subsequent leader does, but potentially interesting times ahead...
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Post by noustie on Jan 17, 2022 10:14:13 GMT
Interesting from the electoral calculus site: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.htmlNot surprisingly, with more and more people finally seeing that the emperor has been bollock naked all along and turning against Johnson and his sleaze-ridden government, a minority Labour government with SNP would be most likely at the present time, with the SNP likely to take all 59 Scottish seats, wow. Probably about two and a half years to go until the next election so lots will change between now and then, not least that the Tories will have a new leader and regained support, but let's leave that aside for the time being and consider the implications of a minority Labour/SNP govt for the Union. Obviously, a condition of some kind of alignment will be a second official independence referendum, that's a given. However, I think a lot of Scots might see that a Labour/SNP national (ie UK) government is not as distasteful as a Tory government, the hatred of which has driven the pro-independence vote for years. So it might take a fair chunk of support away from independence. When it happens, the two parties would no doubt campaign along opposite lines. But, given the above, Starmer might be able to hold a second indyref, campaign for the Union and win it, thus preserving the status quo, which would probably play well with Unionists north and south of the border. Where that would leave the SNP and its relationship in government with Labour is a good question. The arrangement might even dissolve and a new general election would be required. But, as the saviour of the Union, the PM might be in a stronger position than he had been previously... All theoretical obviously and dependent on what the Tories do with Boris and how any subsequent leader does, but potentially interesting times ahead... Think Shetland and Orkney will remain Lib Dem forever and would be surprised if the borders, particularly Dumfries, went SNP even if the election was tomorrow. Lib Dems always seem to get seats too in Edinburgh/ Fife whilst up Aberdeen way don’t think the virtue signalling around licensing a new oil/gas field played particularly well. Big thing for the SNP is getting the vote out so turnout will be the big focus and get the impression more and more folk are getting disillusioned at the carrot being dangled in front of them that one more vote for them in an election especially as the wheels are coming off the day to day running. If Tories get their leadership sorted out, and turnout drops, wouldn’t be surprised if SNP ended up with 35-40 which will be absolutely no use to anyone as the media will make them toxic so Labour will steer away from a coalition.
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Post by thevoid on Jan 17, 2022 10:23:54 GMT
Interesting from the electoral calculus site: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.htmlNot surprisingly, with more and more people finally seeing that the emperor has been bollock naked all along and turning against Johnson and his sleaze-ridden government, a minority Labour government with SNP would be most likely at the present time, with the SNP likely to take all 59 Scottish seats, wow. Probably about two and a half years to go until the next election so lots will change between now and then, not least that the Tories will have a new leader and regained support, but let's leave that aside for the time being and consider the implications of a minority Labour/SNP govt for the Union. Obviously, a condition of some kind of alignment will be a second official independence referendum, that's a given. However, I think a lot of Scots might see that a Labour/SNP national (ie UK) government is not as distasteful as a Tory government, the hatred of which has driven the pro-independence vote for years. So it might take a fair chunk of support away from independence. When it happens, the two parties would no doubt campaign along opposite lines. But, given the above, Starmer might be able to hold a second indyref, campaign for the Union and win it, thus preserving the status quo, which would probably play well with Unionists north and south of the border. Where that would leave the SNP and its relationship in government with Labour is a good question. The arrangement might even dissolve and a new general election would be required. But, as the saviour of the Union, the PM might be in a stronger position than he had been previously... All theoretical obviously and dependent on what the Tories do with Boris and how any subsequent leader does, but potentially interesting times ahead... Think Shetland and Orkney will remain Lib Dem forever and would be surprised if the borders, particularly Dumfries, went SNP even if the election was tomorrow. Lib Dems always seem to get seats too in Edinburgh/ Fife whilst up Aberdeen way don’t think the virtue signalling around licensing a new oil/gas field played particularly well. Big thing for the SNP is getting the vote out so turnout will be the big focus and get the impression more and more folk are getting disillusioned at the carrot being dangled in front of them that one more vote for them in an election especially as the wheels are coming off the day to day running. If Tories get their leadership sorted out, and turnout drops, wouldn’t be surprised if SNP ended up with 35-40 which will be absolutely no use to anyone as the media will make them toxic so Labour will steer away from a coalition. Do you think there will be an Independence Ref in Shetland at any point?
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jan 17, 2022 10:25:42 GMT
Interesting from the electoral calculus site: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.htmlNot surprisingly, with more and more people finally seeing that the emperor has been bollock naked all along and turning against Johnson and his sleaze-ridden government, a minority Labour government with SNP would be most likely at the present time, with the SNP likely to take all 59 Scottish seats, wow. Probably about two and a half years to go until the next election so lots will change between now and then, not least that the Tories will have a new leader and regained support, but let's leave that aside for the time being and consider the implications of a minority Labour/SNP govt for the Union. Obviously, a condition of some kind of alignment will be a second official independence referendum, that's a given. However, I think a lot of Scots might see that a Labour/SNP national (ie UK) government is not as distasteful as a Tory government, the hatred of which has driven the pro-independence vote for years. So it might take a fair chunk of support away from independence. When it happens, the two parties would no doubt campaign along opposite lines. But, given the above, Starmer might be able to hold a second indyref, campaign for the Union and win it, thus preserving the status quo, which would probably play well with Unionists north and south of the border. Where that would leave the SNP and its relationship in government with Labour is a good question. The arrangement might even dissolve and a new general election would be required. But, as the saviour of the Union, the PM might be in a stronger position than he had been previously... All theoretical obviously and dependent on what the Tories do with Boris and how any subsequent leader does, but potentially interesting times ahead... Think Shetland and Orkney will remain Lib Dem forever and would be surprised if the borders, particularly Dumfries, went SNP even if the election was tomorrow. Lib Dems always seem to get seats too in Edinburgh/ Fife whilst up Aberdeen way don’t think the virtue signalling around licensing a new oil/gas field played particularly well. Big thing for the SNP is getting the vote out so turnout will be the big focus and get the impression more and more folk are getting disillusioned at the carrot being dangled in front of them that one more vote for them in an election especially as the wheels are coming off the day to day running. If Tories get their leadership sorted out, and turnout drops, wouldn’t be surprised if SNP ended up with 35-40 which will be absolutely no use to anyone as the media will make them toxic so Labour will steer away from a coalition. Shetland (in particular and Orkney) consider themselves different to the rest of Scotland so you could be right. However, even with a low result of 35-40 MPs, that would be enough for a Labour-SNP administration based on that electoral calculus model. You need a working group of 326 or more to form a government, so 35-40 would probably come to around 330-340 Labour/SNP MPs in total, enough to govern with a small combined majority. However, the Tories will recover from where they are now, unless they're stupid enough to keep Boris in power until the next election, so that electoral calculus model will not be that accurate come election time. 30% of the electorate will vote Conservative regardless, that's as bad as it ever gets for them, and the prospect of an election will swing a few more behind them. So, ironic as it is, a Lab/SNP government might ultimately be the best way to keep the Union intact. On the whole I can't see the Scots voting for independence, although Boris is currently the best recruitment agent they could hope for in that regard!
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Post by noustie on Jan 17, 2022 10:55:37 GMT
Think Shetland and Orkney will remain Lib Dem forever and would be surprised if the borders, particularly Dumfries, went SNP even if the election was tomorrow. Lib Dems always seem to get seats too in Edinburgh/ Fife whilst up Aberdeen way don’t think the virtue signalling around licensing a new oil/gas field played particularly well. Big thing for the SNP is getting the vote out so turnout will be the big focus and get the impression more and more folk are getting disillusioned at the carrot being dangled in front of them that one more vote for them in an election especially as the wheels are coming off the day to day running. If Tories get their leadership sorted out, and turnout drops, wouldn’t be surprised if SNP ended up with 35-40 which will be absolutely no use to anyone as the media will make them toxic so Labour will steer away from a coalition. Shetland (in particular and Orkney) consider themselves different to the rest of Scotland so you could be right. However, even with a low result of 35-40 MPs, that would be enough for a Labour-SNP administration based on that electoral calculus model. You need a working group of 326 or more to form a government, so 35-40 would probably come to around 330-340 Labour/SNP MPs in total, enough to govern with a small combined majority. However, the Tories will recover from where they are now, unless they're stupid enough to keep Boris in power until the next election, so that electoral calculus model will not be that accurate come election time. 30% of the electorate will vote Conservative regardless, that's as bad as it ever gets for them, and the prospect of an election will swing a few more behind them. So, ironic as it is, a Lab/SNP government might ultimately be the best way to keep the Union intact. On the whole I can't see the Scots voting for independence, although Boris is currently the best recruitment agent they could hope for in that regard! If the media are less foamy at the mouth at the prospect I think it would put a dent in things as Scotland would have a government it voted for. Additionally if Labour were as savvy as the Tories with the Lib Dems they could give them some token cabinet posts to make them relevant then basically throw them under the bus towards the end if things are going a bit wonky. Think Labour missed a trick up here in that the lass who lost the last leadership election was on a platform of agreeing another referendum as good for democracy but that they would vote against it. Would imagine they could have hoovered up quite a few votes on that stance. Personally, unfortunately from my perspective think we’d struggle to beat 45% if there was another referendum, (I’d be tempted to call her out if I was batting Unionist) as Sturgeon is becoming increasingly toxic and can’t really see anything other than varying degrees of mediocrity, and a fair smattering of odd-balls, to step in.
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Post by noustie on Jan 17, 2022 11:05:52 GMT
Think Shetland and Orkney will remain Lib Dem forever and would be surprised if the borders, particularly Dumfries, went SNP even if the election was tomorrow. Lib Dems always seem to get seats too in Edinburgh/ Fife whilst up Aberdeen way don’t think the virtue signalling around licensing a new oil/gas field played particularly well. Big thing for the SNP is getting the vote out so turnout will be the big focus and get the impression more and more folk are getting disillusioned at the carrot being dangled in front of them that one more vote for them in an election especially as the wheels are coming off the day to day running. If Tories get their leadership sorted out, and turnout drops, wouldn’t be surprised if SNP ended up with 35-40 which will be absolutely no use to anyone as the media will make them toxic so Labour will steer away from a coalition. Do you think there will be an Independence Ref in Shetland at any point? Nae sure mate to be honest - there's blokes who travel with the Tartan Army who basically said it was a non-starter but suppose if there was a will there would be a way. Think they're that remote from Edinburgh, London and Oslo that they wouldn't really give a shit but would have a decent negotiation hand in getting a better deal for themselves. Even if the world moves away from oil and gas quickly they would still be relevant as the renewables would be massive - not really sure how that's going to play out with jobs though.
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Post by wagsastokie on Jan 17, 2022 11:24:15 GMT
Think Shetland and Orkney will remain Lib Dem forever and would be surprised if the borders, particularly Dumfries, went SNP even if the election was tomorrow. Lib Dems always seem to get seats too in Edinburgh/ Fife whilst up Aberdeen way don’t think the virtue signalling around licensing a new oil/gas field played particularly well. Big thing for the SNP is getting the vote out so turnout will be the big focus and get the impression more and more folk are getting disillusioned at the carrot being dangled in front of them that one more vote for them in an election especially as the wheels are coming off the day to day running. If Tories get their leadership sorted out, and turnout drops, wouldn’t be surprised if SNP ended up with 35-40 which will be absolutely no use to anyone as the media will make them toxic so Labour will steer away from a coalition. Shetland (in particular and Orkney) consider themselves different to the rest of Scotland so you could be right. However, even with a low result of 35-40 MPs, that would be enough for a Labour-SNP administration based on that electoral calculus model. You need a working group of 326 or more to form a government, so 35-40 would probably come to around 330-340 Labour/SNP MPs in total, enough to govern with a small combined majority. However, the Tories will recover from where they are now, unless they're stupid enough to keep Boris in power until the next election, so that electoral calculus model will not be that accurate come election time. 30% of the electorate will vote Conservative regardless, that's as bad as it ever gets for them, and the prospect of an election will swing a few more behind them. So, ironic as it is, a Lab/SNP government might ultimately be the best way to keep the Union intact. On the whole I can't see the Scots voting for independence, although Boris is currently the best recruitment agent they could hope for in that regard! I’m sure the Tory vote will slowly return And come the election a fair few still wavering will be brought back to the fold with the strap line vote starmer get sturgeon
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jan 17, 2022 11:29:09 GMT
Shetland (in particular and Orkney) consider themselves different to the rest of Scotland so you could be right. However, even with a low result of 35-40 MPs, that would be enough for a Labour-SNP administration based on that electoral calculus model. You need a working group of 326 or more to form a government, so 35-40 would probably come to around 330-340 Labour/SNP MPs in total, enough to govern with a small combined majority. However, the Tories will recover from where they are now, unless they're stupid enough to keep Boris in power until the next election, so that electoral calculus model will not be that accurate come election time. 30% of the electorate will vote Conservative regardless, that's as bad as it ever gets for them, and the prospect of an election will swing a few more behind them. So, ironic as it is, a Lab/SNP government might ultimately be the best way to keep the Union intact. On the whole I can't see the Scots voting for independence, although Boris is currently the best recruitment agent they could hope for in that regard! If the media are less foamy at the mouth at the prospect I think it would put a dent in things as Scotland would have a government it voted for. Additionally if Labour were as savvy as the Tories with the Lib Dems they could give them some token cabinet posts to make them relevant then basically throw them under the bus towards the end if things are going a bit wonky. Think Labour missed a trick up here in that the lass who lost the last leadership election was on a platform of agreeing another referendum as good for democracy but that they would vote against it. Would imagine they could have hoovered up quite a few votes on that stance. Personally, unfortunately from my perspective think we’d struggle to beat 45% if there was another referendum, (I’d be tempted to call her out if I was batting Unionist) as Sturgeon is becoming increasingly toxic and can’t really see anything other than varying degrees of mediocrity, and a fair smattering of odd-balls, to step in. I agree on the outcome, provided Johnson goes. If he stays, independence might have a chance. My overall feeling is that Scots quite like the status quo as it stands: having a reason to nurture that long-standing chip on the shoulder towards anything that can be lumped into "oppression from England/London/the South/Westminster" goes down well. It doesn't necessarily need to be any more defined than that. But when it comes down to the crunch, there is a realisation that removing that ability to blame that nebulous group for Scotland's troubles via independence brings its own problems. The same is happening down south where blaming the EU for the UK's problems is no longer the easy vote winner that it was (although it rumbles along in respect of NI). Who do you blame for your woes, if you can't bring yourself to look inhouse? So I think your small majority for the Union is probably about right. One way or another there will be another vote. Probably an unofficial one in 2023 first, then Westminster (whoever is in power) will have to allow an official one, if the result goes in favour of independence, that is!
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jan 17, 2022 11:48:43 GMT
Shetland (in particular and Orkney) consider themselves different to the rest of Scotland so you could be right. However, even with a low result of 35-40 MPs, that would be enough for a Labour-SNP administration based on that electoral calculus model. You need a working group of 326 or more to form a government, so 35-40 would probably come to around 330-340 Labour/SNP MPs in total, enough to govern with a small combined majority. However, the Tories will recover from where they are now, unless they're stupid enough to keep Boris in power until the next election, so that electoral calculus model will not be that accurate come election time. 30% of the electorate will vote Conservative regardless, that's as bad as it ever gets for them, and the prospect of an election will swing a few more behind them. So, ironic as it is, a Lab/SNP government might ultimately be the best way to keep the Union intact. On the whole I can't see the Scots voting for independence, although Boris is currently the best recruitment agent they could hope for in that regard! I’m sure the Tory vote will slowly return And come the election a fair few still wavering will be brought back to the fold with the strap line vote starmer get sturgeon I'm sure you're right about the return of the Tory vote once Johnson has gone. Never underestimate the need of a large number of people in England for the security of having a feudal, hierarchical system in place, which flows down from the monarchy, through the Establishment of the nobility, landed gentry and Tory Party to the plebs at the bottom, and which encourages suspicion of change and foreign ways of doing things. It's a very peculiarly English need for order and people to know their station. The Labour Party has never really fitted into that view for a lot of people - it represents a dangerous outlier from the safety and security of the status quo. It doesn't really matter whether they would bring beneficial change or not. There will be a lot of people who fit into the above voting group who will be feeling quite uncomfortable at the moment with how things are going. Johnson has shown himself to be the bumbling idiot many of us knew him to be, the Tory Party has demonstrated a blatant disregard and contempt for ordinary folk, Prince Harry has left the royal family, Prince Andrew struggles to clear his name from accusations of noncery. All of which is bound to be shaking their comfort on the reliance on the 'usual' order of things. But that's now. It's unlikely to last once things settle down, assuming they do. The Daily Mail is already working hard with whataboutery tactics to tar all politicians with the same brush in regard to breaking Covid rules, mainly to reassure their readers that it's not just 'their' side that are the bad guys. Starmer was right when he pointed out recently that Johnson does this too "The taunt that politicians are all in it for themselves becomes accepted wisdom. That mistrust suits Johnson just fine. If all politicians are all as bad as each other he can be as bad as he likes". But that's a digression from Scottish independence.
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Post by followyoudown on Feb 1, 2022 19:01:44 GMT
An interesting change in policy even if its completely bizarre and not ever going to happen.
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Post by werrington on Feb 4, 2022 9:27:18 GMT
Sturgeon: UK taxpayers to pay for Scottish pensions after independence mol.im/a/10474977
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Post by knype on Feb 4, 2022 9:28:07 GMT
Sturgeon: UK taxpayers to pay for Scottish pensions after independence mol.im/a/10474977Jimmy is off her tits
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Post by partickpotter on Feb 4, 2022 11:06:33 GMT
Sturgeon: UK taxpayers to pay for Scottish pensions after independence mol.im/a/10474977Following is the new Scottish Independence policy…
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Post by werrington on Feb 4, 2022 11:09:43 GMT
Sturgeon: UK taxpayers to pay for Scottish pensions after independence mol.im/a/10474977Following is the new Scottish Independence policy… 😂😂
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Post by thevoid on Feb 4, 2022 13:42:44 GMT
Sturgeon: UK taxpayers to pay for Scottish pensions after independence mol.im/a/10474977Yeah good luck with that Ginge
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Post by noustie on Feb 4, 2022 14:01:07 GMT
Sturgeon: UK taxpayers to pay for Scottish pensions after independence mol.im/a/10474977Yeah good luck with that Ginge I don't think it'll ever happen but it would seem reasonable to work it on a pro-rata basis on the number of years you paid in via the UK vs what should be responsiblity of Scottish Government moving forward. Say for argument sake my old man decided to vote for independence and is due to get his state pension next year that he has spent his whole life paying into should that money just disappear?
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Post by partickpotter on Feb 5, 2022 4:58:09 GMT
Yeah good luck with that Ginge I don't think it'll ever happen but it would seem reasonable to work it on a pro-rata basis on the number of years you paid in via the UK vs what should be responsiblity of Scottish Government moving forward. Say for argument sake my old man decided to vote for independence and is due to get his state pension next year that he has spent his whole life paying into should that money just disappear? Sorry pal, it’s not reasonable. It’s a jaw droppingly stupid proposition. State pensions don’t work like that. The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today. Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them. They are crucially different in that regard to private pensions. The proposition though is typical of the half baked thinking (and I’m being generous) that the SNP have put into the economics of independence. This is why they place so much emphasis on grievance and Boris bashing; because they are unable to make a credible economic case. The same as last time when they had no idea about currency. And, of course, they still have no idea about currency. And let’s not forget the lies about how important oil revenue was (Salmond lied in saying it was an upside when it was the bedrock of his plan… so where does the move from oil leave Scotland’s future economic prospects. I won’t hold my breath waiting for an answer).
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Post by lawrieleslie on Feb 5, 2022 6:41:25 GMT
I don't think it'll ever happen but it would seem reasonable to work it on a pro-rata basis on the number of years you paid in via the UK vs what should be responsiblity of Scottish Government moving forward. Say for argument sake my old man decided to vote for independence and is due to get his state pension next year that he has spent his whole life paying into should that money just disappear? Sorry pal, it’s not reasonable. It’s a jaw droppingly stupid proposition. State pensions don’t work like that. The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today. Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them. They are crucially different in that regard to private pensions. The proposition though is typical of the half baked thinking (and I’m being generous) that the SNP have put into the economics of independence. This is why they place so much emphasis on grievance and Boris bashing; because they are unable to make a credible economic case. The same as last time when they had no idea about currency. And, of course, they still have no idea about currency. And let’s not forget the lies about how important oil revenue was (Salmond lied in saying it was an upside when it was the bedrock of his plan… so where does the move from oil leave Scotland’s future economic prospects. I won’t hold my breath waiting for an answer). Just about to say the same re the funding of pensions. You beat me to it Patrick 😀
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Post by partickpotter on Feb 5, 2022 7:15:10 GMT
Sorry pal, it’s not reasonable. It’s a jaw droppingly stupid proposition. State pensions don’t work like that. The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today. Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them. They are crucially different in that regard to private pensions. The proposition though is typical of the half baked thinking (and I’m being generous) that the SNP have put into the economics of independence. This is why they place so much emphasis on grievance and Boris bashing; because they are unable to make a credible economic case. The same as last time when they had no idea about currency. And, of course, they still have no idea about currency. And let’s not forget the lies about how important oil revenue was (Salmond lied in saying it was an upside when it was the bedrock of his plan… so where does the move from oil leave Scotland’s future economic prospects. I won’t hold my breath waiting for an answer). Just about to say the same re the funding of pensions. You beat me to it Patrick 😀 I wonder why they’ve come out with this position. I can’t decide if it’s a cock up or a conspiracy. Cock up… Blackford simply messed up. As a rich person with a private pension as big as his belly (in other words substantial) he has no comprehension about how the state pension works as it matters not a jot to him. Sturgeon decides she has to back her man, so doubles down hoping that this story will not become a story. Conspiracy… Blackford and Sturgeon have cooked up a grievance wheeze whereby they believe enough people in Scotland will accept their proposition as reasonable and another example of the massive injustice done to the Scottish people by the Tories / Westminster / English / Boris. I’m inclined to go for cock up. Blackford is a very bright person, but suffers from the failing of hubris. That hubris becomes exaggerated when he feels in a strong position, which is how he feels just now with Johnson’s travails dominating the news. So, he lets his mouth run away with some half baked idea. The conspiracy line is just too awful to believe even for the SNP.
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Post by noustie on Feb 5, 2022 8:46:44 GMT
I don't think it'll ever happen but it would seem reasonable to work it on a pro-rata basis on the number of years you paid in via the UK vs what should be responsiblity of Scottish Government moving forward. Say for argument sake my old man decided to vote for independence and is due to get his state pension next year that he has spent his whole life paying into should that money just disappear? Sorry pal, it’s not reasonable. It’s a jaw droppingly stupid proposition. State pensions don’t work like that. The state pension is paid for by national insurance contributions, which come from the wages of people working today. Effectively, each working generation pays for the older generation above them. They are crucially different in that regard to private pensions. The proposition though is typical of the half baked thinking (and I’m being generous) that the SNP have put into the economics of independence. This is why they place so much emphasis on grievance and Boris bashing; because they are unable to make a credible economic case. The same as last time when they had no idea about currency. And, of course, they still have no idea about currency. And let’s not forget the lies about how important oil revenue was (Salmond lied in saying it was an upside when it was the bedrock of his plan… so where does the move from oil leave Scotland’s future economic prospects. I won’t hold my breath waiting for an answer). I get how the state pension is collected and my comment was more around how they would negotiate a settlement figure as part of any divorce rather than how that would actually be delivered. ‘We’re keeping all your share of NI contributions and we will continue to have unfettered access to the nukes off the Clyde’ doesn’t seem the strongest negotiation position – even the SNP could spot a flaw in this one If we’re saying I’m paying in now to cover the current recipients and shouldn’t be expecting that my contributions can be claimed in the divorce negotiations because they’re already spent then the system is a Ponzi scheme and not a social security arrangement. Maybe Scotland could come up with a better method? The other thing for me is the sales pitch of ‘remain in the union or we bankrupt your grannies’ isn’t a great look. How would that even be delivered because the UK government already pay state pensions to folk who have moved to Spain, Australia, etc and Blair McDougall Tweeted Labour would protect, and inflationary increase, folk living outside the UK’s claiming state pension. Would a 70 year old from Kent who wants to move up to Scotland lose her state pension unless she chooses to move litlerally anywhere else in the world? Another reason that would be daft is if we voted for Independence, and pensioners had been scared about their pension, then UK would risk loads of them moving onto their balance sheet rather than remaining on Scotland’s during the transition period. There was also this from the BBC back in 2014 so why would anything change: Daily question: What does the future hold for Scotland's pensioners? - BBC News (archive.is) Both sides agree that it's very important that the elderly do not suffer in any transition, and for a lot of people nothing noticeable would change at all. The UK government have agreed that if you've been building up an entitlement to a UK pension, that will be honoured, but it might be dished out via the Scottish Pensions System rather than the UK one. Last year, £1.2m UK pensioners living overseas continued to receive their pensions through a series of bilateral and international arrangements. That's likely to be the case in an independent Scotland. Oil is at $90 a barrel and given the current geo-political climate would suggest it is going to stay there for a while. Renewables is going to be massive either for the UK and Scotland – SNP flogging the leases on the cheap is more concern to me in terms of independence than the state pension to be honest.
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