Brexit 2nd Year 2nd Quarter progress to date (25.8.2022)
This is the fifth post in a series of posts listed in the appendix, where I endeavour to report UK performance and events since the UK left the EU.
It should be noted that whilst quarterly data is significantly more accurate than monthly data, it is still subject to correction for errors and assumptions, particularly those in the last month of the quarter, and therefore less accurate than annual or year to date figures, such as inflation rate. It is due to inherent inaccuracy that many countries do not issue monthly statistics for many parameters, or they issue them a long time after the period, notably Japan. Where monthly statistics are reported on sites such as tradingeconomics they also report the previous month's result as it is very often a correction on what was issued the previous month.
A1 GDP Growth Q2
G7: Canada 1.1%, Italy 1%, France 0.5%, Japan 0.5%, Germany 0%, UK -0.1%, US -0.2%.
Other countries: Netherlands 2.6%, Spain 1.1%, EU 0.6%, Euro area 0.6%, (References 1 & 2)
The UK saw services fall by 0.4% in Quarter 2 2022 with the largest negative contribution from human health and social work activities, reflecting a reduction in coronavirus activities. (Ref. 3)
The Canadian economy is being boosted by the escalating energy prices.
The anticipated post pandemic recovery of Mediterranean countries' economies' tourist trade became evident in Q2, with Italy and Spain, and to a lesser degree France, reporting strong growth in tourism.
The US GDP, adjusted for inflation, fell (0.2)% in the second quarter, which follows a decline of (0.4)% in the first quarter. The estimates for both periods will be revised in coming months as government statisticians get more complete data. Technically two successive declines in quarterly GDP signifies a recession.
The US is not alone in seeing negative growth in 2022. In Q1 Italy, Japan, Portugal, Norway, New Zealand, and Denmark all experienced negative growth, with France achieving zero growth. Most surprisingly, in Q2 China has had a negative growth of (0.4)% as well as the UK, as did Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Portugal, with Germany achieving zero growth. The UK is now being predicted to go into recession later this year by the Bank of England.
UK construction recorded growth in Q2 but was declining by the end of the period. Nevertheless, the level of construction output in June 2022 was 2.9% above the February 2020 pre-coronavirus pandemic level. (Ref. 4)
UK car manufacturing was significantly down in the first half year, driven in part by the global semiconductor shortage, which the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders says isn’t receding as quickly as expected back in January. The first signs of a turn round started in May and June with two months of consecutive growth and production up 5.6 % year-on-year. The SMMT anticipates that supply issues will ease in the next 6 to 12 months, but expects they will still be a factor in 2023 and 2024. With the departure of Honda and labour constraints it is unlikely car production will ever rise to former levels.
A2 Employment
UK employment level appears to have finally peaked following a steady rise since the pandemic, with Q2 showing a small decrease of 0.1%. The number of full-time employees actually increased during the latest three-month period. While part-time employees had generally been increasing since the beginning of 2021, following the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, there was a decrease during the latest three-month period. There was a marked increase in economic inactivity in Q2, particularly with the 50-64 year olds and 16-34 year olds. (Ref. 5)
There is undoubtedly a shortage of labour in the UK, but there is also a shortage of labour in countries across the world including many in the EU. The OECD has stated across its 38 member countries, 20 million fewer people are working now compared to before the pandemic. The number of foreign workers in the UK has grown from 3.44million in June 2016 to 3.96million in June 2022 and is now at a historic high of 12 per cent. (Ref. 6 & 7)
In June 2022 there was an estimated 2,176,000 EU nationals working in the UK, higher than March 2016 when there were 2,144,000 before the referendum. It is not true that the number of European workers in the UK dropped after the referendum. The number continued to rise to a peak in March 2020 of 2,415,000. There was then a substantial fall due to the pandemic as people were laid off work and many returned to their homelands to be with their families. Since March 2021 the number of EU nationals has fluctuated around 2.2million, but the idea of a mass exodus of European workers following the Brexit vote is false.
It is the case that the number of EU nationals arriving since Brexit is not at the high level before the referendum, but that could be for a number of reasons such as the large number of over 50s who have chosen to stop working, the large shortage of workers in other countries like Germany attracting them in preference to the UK, and the high increases in wages in many east European states causing many to "stay at home" to find work.
The German economy is suffering from lack of workers as much as the UK with record vacancies. (Ref. 8)
It is clear that European workers have reduced in some sectors, like hospitality and the care sector, but this cannot be attributed to an overall absence of EU workers. Maybe these particular shortages have more to do with the low wages and unappealing working conditions resulting in those "missing" EU workers now working in other more rewarding occupations? It is a fact that crops were left to rot in fields before Brexit, due to shortages of workers and the EU Common Agricultural Policy encouraging over production. It is easier for farmers to blame lack of workers, than say they planted too much, the supermarkets are not buying, or the cost of logistics has pushed up prices and reduced demand.
Ironically some Brexiteers (not me) have expressed concern that since Brexit the inflow of foreign workers continues to be so high! The picture has changed however; now migrants to the UK are treated equally whether they are from Europe, Africa, Asia, or America, unless they have special rights such as those from Ireland, Gibraltar, Hong Kong, etc. Visas to work are granted on the basis of need to fill certain jobs. This is a major benefit of Brexit and a far more equitable society treating all foreign nationals equally and giving British young people a better chance to get the job they want to do.
There are other reasons why the UK workforce is still 200,000 people smaller than in 2019. The main reason is economic inactivity of the over 50s, but I am advised by one consultant working with many companies, that many older workers are now returning to or seeking work, at least part time, due to savings expiring, inflation, and boredom, but the figures don't reflect this.
Earnings Growth. Ref. 9
Whilst well behind the US (10.25%), earnings growth in the UK at 5.1% is higher than most of western Europe. It is noticeable that east European wage increases have generally been consistently higher than the rest of Europe for quite some time; this would be a factor in fewer workers leaving their homelands to work in other parts of Europe.
Despite the increase in UK wages, net income is falling at the fastest rate in more than a decade when taking into account rising prices. People have become used to wages outstripping inflation in recent years. (Ref.10)
Despite higher inflation, UK real wage "growth", although negative, is better than many west European countries.
On 23rd June The Independent published an article claiming "
Brexit will keep wages down and make UK poorer in decade ahead" Time will tell, but so far, since the UK left the EU, UK wages have increased faster than all the other G7 countries apart from US.
Higher wage increases is not so significant if wages are low, but UK wages are close to the OECD mean and higher than Japan, Italy, and France. (Ref. 11)
On April 1 2022, the UK national living wage increased to £9.50 per hour for people aged 23 and above, a 6.6 per cent rise on the previous rate. Whilst this was the largest ever increase, in reality of course, it was a drop in living standard due to high inflation. Nevertheless the wage compares well with many other countries, US - £5.58 ph, Ireland - £8.78 ph, and Spain £975 pm. The UK has the 8th highest minimum wage in the world, the highest countries being Luxembourg and Australia, however their cost of living is significantly higher than the UK's. (Ref. 12 & 13 )
A3. Unemployment June 2022 Ref. 14
G7: Japan 2.6%, US 3.6%, UK 3.8%, Canada 4.9%, Germany 5.3%, France 7.4 %, Italy 8.1%
Other countries: Netherlands 3.4%, EU 6%, Euro area 6.6%, Spain 12.48%
The fall in UK unemployment has bottomed out at 3.8%. The redundancy rate continues to fall, but with recession looming, this too is likely to bottom out soon.
A4 Inflation
June 2022 Ref. 15
G7: Japan 2.4%, France 5.8%, Germany 7.6%, Italy 8%, Canada 8.1%, US 9.1%, UK 9.4%.
Other countries: Euro area 8.6%, Netherlands 8.6%, EU 9.6%, Spain 10.2%
Reiterating my words in section A4 last May, inflation is the uppermost issue in people's minds today. UK is worse than its G7 peers and most of the G20, but better than the EU mean and most of the 27 EU countries.
UK house prices not only hit yet another record figure in June, "
the annual growth rate hit 13%, the fastest annual rate in 18 years" according to the Guardian. (Ref. 16 ) But according to HM Land Registry, house prices rose at an annual rate of 7.3% (Ref. 17) The Guardian couldn't be trying to make out things are worse than they are, could they?
Consequently the BoE continues to push up interest rates, which appears to have successfully halted continued price rise in July. New housing starts are not as high as they were immediately after the pandemic started to end, but continue to be above the pre pandemic level. (Ref. 18)
Naturally there is concern that inflation hits the poorest hardest and food inflation is of highest concern.
Food inflation rates
June 2022 (Ref. 19):
G7: Japan 3.7%, France 5.8%, Canada 8.8%, Italy 9.1%, UK 9.8%, US 10.4%, Germany 12.7%.
Other countries: Norway 2.6%, Euro area 10.4%, Netherlands 11.1%, Sweden 11.2%, EU 11.57%, Spain 12.95%.
France has managed food inflation much better than most countries recently, but, for the record, the UK's rate of food inflation in recent years has been consistently lower than the EU's and the Euro zone. (Ref. 20)
EU food prices are rising faster generally than the UK. UK food prices inflate and deflate due to seasonal factors and were actually falling in the first half of 2021, but have been inflating for the last 12 months driven by fuel, energy, transport, and labour costs. (Ref. 21)
Post Q2 note The July inflation rate has been published and the UK moved into double figures at 10.1%. As a consequence the UK inflation rate rose slightly above the EU mean value. The UK inflation rate is still lower than most EU countries, including the Netherlands which jumped above the UK in August, where it has been most of the year.
UK Government inaction is the reason for high UK inflation, not Brexit.
A5 Trade
UK trade continues to grow since the pandemic but not all for the best of reasons. Inflation of energy imports has driven goods imports to an all time high, which in turn has created a record trade deficit. (Ref.22)
Exports rose in Q2 to £178,642m, the highest level in UK history. (Ref. 23)
Whilst the total trade balance looks grim, on the bright side, unaffected by energy costs, UK services export trade balance for 2022 first half year rose to c.£70 billion, equalling the highest in UK history.
Q2 2022 goods exports to the EU increased to £49.4b, again, the highest level in UK history.
There continue to be reports in the anti Brexit press about the damage done to exports to the EU due to red tape etc. Whilst some niche markets have been seriously impacted, these reports are wildly exaggerated and the experience of Lincoln is far more typical who reported that the region had a “
slight dip” in international trade following Brexit but was “
ramping up again”. (Ref. 24)
Goods exports to the Commonwealth increased by 18% to £31.6bn in the 12 months to April of this year, compared to the previous 12 month period, the largest respective period in over 15 years. (Ref. 25) Commonwealth heads of 54 governments, which now includes 4 countries that have no historic links with the British Empire, have set an ambition to increase intra-Commonwealth trade to US$2trillion by 2030. Member nations have a combined population of 2.4 billion people—almost a third of the world’s population.
Exports dipped in June, due in part to the struggling economies in US and Germany, however the UK continues to exercise its freedom from EU membership by negotiating its own trade deals. In May the government commenced negotiations on a new UK-Mexico Free Trade Agreement. With a population projected to reach nearly 150 million by 2035 Mexico's imports could grow by 35% by then.
Also in May the UK and Vietnam held a Joint Economic and Trade Committee meeting in a bid to increase cooperation across several sectors, including education, agriculture, technology, healthcare and renewable energy. Since 2020, when the UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement was signed, trade with Vietnam has increased by over 10%. The agreement eliminates 99% of all tariffs and helps forge a deeper relationship with a country that shares a belief in free trade. Vietnam's economy is growing fast and is expected to become one of the world’s major economies by 2050 when its population is expected to exceed 109 million and economy be bigger than Italy, the 6th largest member of the G7 with 2.4% of world GDP.
A third deal signed in May was UK signing its first US state-level trade agreement (MoU) with Indiana. (Ref. 26)
In the penultimate week of Q2 the UK and the GCC launched talks on a comprehensive free trade agreement with a view to securing a deal before the end of 2023. It is anticipated one area where the deal is expected to have a significant impact is renewable energy to help Gulf countries diversify their respective energy sectors and reduce their reliance on hydrocarbons.
With the proliferation of trade groups in the world such as the EU, CPTPP, NAFTA, GCC, ASEAN, AfTFCA, etc. it might be thought that the World Trade Organisation is becoming redundant. In June however, the World Trade Organization's 164 members approved a series of trade agreements that included commitments on fish and pledges on health and food security, intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines, and e commerce tariffs.
As an independent sovereign country the UK is able to represent its own interests at the WTO, instead of being represented by the EU Commission who are committed to representing EU interests and ever closer European union.
The Food & Drink Federation snapshot report in June reported that Q1 2022 food exports have risen above the pre Covid 2019 levels and are particularly strong to Canada and India. Further significant growth is anticipated. (Ref. 27)
On 1st June the Institute of Export & International Trade reported that food and drink exports to the EU continue to be below pre-Brexit and pre-pandemic levels, however the Q1 2022 was up 45% on Q1 2021.and exports rose in 16 of the UK’s top 20 markets for food and drink exports. Scottish fish farms have been reporting record profits.
It may be deduced that food exporters are replacing exports to the EU with other markets; domestic sales displacing EU imports, and increased exports to the rest of the world.
During the summer there has been constant references in the media to the UK's adverse trade balance, invariably misattributed to the UK leaving the EU. Germany still has a positive trade balance, but, apart from the start of the pandemic, it at its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The reason for the UK's and Germany's adverse trend in trade balance in 2022 is the same, the escalating price of energy imports. (Ref. 28)
A6 Finance
Investment
The UK continues to be Europe’s most attractive location for international investment into financial services according to EY’s June UK Attractiveness Survey for Financial Services, attracting 63 projects in 2021 – an increase of seven projects from 2020. Financial services foreign direct investment fell 2.8% across Europe in 2021, representing the third annual decline in succession, but the UK and France bucked this trend. (Ref. 29)
London has retained its title as Europe’s most attractive city for foreign direct investment, according to new research from Ernst and Young on 1st June. (Yes, this is the same Ernst and Young that was telling us via the Guardian and Independent in 2016 and 2017 that there would be a mass exodus of trading and jobs from the City due to Brexit.)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the United Kingdom increased to a record £102billion in the first quarter of 2022. having fully recovered from the pandemic slump and now at its highest level ever in UK history. (Ref. 30)
In May the 14th annual Global Best To Invest rankings were published. The UK was ranked second in the world after US. (Ref. 31)
The GBTI rankings release follows the Milken Institute’s Global Opportunity Index released in January, which evaluates 126 countries across seven geographic regions and 100 variables to measure their potential attractiveness to foreign investors. Among key findings this year were: Sweden maintained its No. 1 rank from 2021 as the country with the most potential to attract foreign investment, followed by the UK at No. 2 and Denmark at No. 3.
In April the OECD released the Foreign Direct Investment statistics for 2021. (Ref. 32)
FDI is dominated by US and China with the other "BRIC" countries figuring strongly. (One wonders where Russia will figure in 2022!)
2021 FDI inward flows for the G7 (USD billion): US 382, Canada 51, Germany 31, UK 28, Japan 25, France 14, Italy 8.
2021 FDI outward flows for the G7 (USD billion): US 434, Germany 152, Japan 147, UK 108, Canada 90, Italy 12, France -3.
Venture capital investment into UK start-ups saw the biggest annual opening quarter on record despite the start of global economic uncertainty, with $11.3bn raised in Q1 of 2022. (Ref. 33)
During Q2 British Business Bank announced that equity investment in the UK’s smaller businesses increased in 2021 to £18.1bn, the highest yearly amount since the Beauhurst data series began in 2011. The strong momentum continued into Q1 2022, with £7.6bn of equity investment reaching smaller businesses, the highest ever amount invested in a single quarter. (Ref. 34)
Investment in vertical farming continues at pace. The James Food company claims its facility in Lincolnshire is Europe's largest vertical farm. Their new farm in Gloucestershire, due to open this autumn, will be the largest vertical farm in the world. Indoor farms use 95% less water and 99% less land than traditional farming. The goal is to end the UK's dependence on the importation of certain food. (Ref. 35)
It is no coincidence that the shortage of labour is driving investment in automation and robotics. Hopefully this will improve the UK's poor record in productivity. Whilst members of the EU, UK employers have found it too easy to rely on cheap labour, rather than invest in modern technology. Sky reported in July from a survey of 670 companies that one in three firms are investigating investment in robotics due to staffing shortages.
In my last report in May, I reported "
Nearly 13% of UK adults are running fledgling businesses, according to research, the highest percentage since the late 1990s." In June new research from the Association of Independent Professionals and the Self-Employed has found that two in five Brits (39 per cent) have considered becoming a freelancer. (Ref. 36) We have moved on from what Napoleon called
"a nation of shopkeepers", but that entrepreneurial spirit remains.
93 new businesses were created every hour across the UK in the first half of 2022, according to small business lender iwoca. Analysis of Companies House data revealed that over 402,000 businesses were registered in the UK between January and June 2022. London saw the highest business creation rate per capita with 1,587 new businesses per 100,000 residents, followed by the West Midlands with 571.
In July the Northern Echo reported that 4,135 new businesses were established in the North East alone in quarter 2, according to analysis by insolvency and restructuring trade body R3 of new data provided by CreditSafe. This was on the back of 4,187 in quarter 1.
This sort of good news gets little press though, and it is an inevitable fact that record new business will lead to record business failures as a fifth of new businesses fail in their first year and 60% within 3 years. That is the sort of news the media love to shout about, so we can expect a lot of grim news in the media, no doubt blaming Brexit.
Banking
Profits at Britain’s banks have risen above their French counterparts for the first time since before the Brexit vote in 2016, according to The Banker’s annual top 1,000 world bank ranking published on 4th July. Britain’s lenders also beat Germany’s banks, which includes investment banking giant Deutsche Bank.
B Change Enactment
B1 Environment
In April the UK government announced it will set in law the world’s most ambitious climate change target, cutting emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. For the first time, UK’s sixth Carbon Budget will incorporate the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping emissions, thereby bringing the UK more than three-quarters of the way to net zero by 2050. (Ref. 37)
The 2022 Environmental Performance Index results have been announced. The EPI provides a quantitative basis for comparing, analysing, and understanding environmental performance for 180 countries.
EPI score (rank) for G7: UK 73.09 (2nd), France 62.5 (12th), Germany 62.4 (13th), Italy 57.7 (23rd), Japan 57.2 (25th), US 51.1 (43rd), Canada 50 (49th).
EPI for other countries: Denmark 77.9 (highest in world), Netherlands 62.6 (11th). (Ref. 38)
On the Climate Change Performance Index, no country performs well enough in all CCPI index categories to achieve an overall very high rating. The first three positions in the overall ranking therefore remain empty. Denmark is again in the highest placed 4th position with the UK in 7th place after Sweden and Norway. The second highest placed G7 country is Germany in 13th place. (Ref. 39)
The UK Climate Change Committee however in their report at the end of Quarter 2 stated there were numerous aspects of government policy that were falling far short of the targets, most notably the home insulation programme. Conversely it was also highlighted at the end of June that over the past three decades the UK had driven down emissions faster than any other G7 country, and that it had clear plans to go further. (Ref. 40)
The CCC chairman, Lord Deben, said "
recent climate extremes were “very, very worrying” and “
the public should be proud of the UK setting best targets but I’m very worried that there’s no convincing programme for delivering policies." “
I’m seriously worried that we are not moving fast enough to avert real catastrophe.”(Ref. 41)
In April construction began on 3.6GW Dogger Bank Wind Farm, which will be the world's largest off-shore wind farm and the first HVDC connected wind farm in the UK. HVDC will transmit renewable energy safely and efficiently across long distances while minimising potential energy losses. This project confirms the UK's world leading position, second only to China, in off-shore wind power generation. The new plant will supersede the world's current biggest offshore wind farm, Hornsea 2, which started generating power last December, and will generate 1.32GW when fully operational.
On 12th May, HS2 Ltd, Europe’s largest mega project, announced its first completely diesel-free site is the Canterbury Road Vent Shaft site in South Kilburn, where HS2’s civil contractor Skanska Costain STRABAG joint venture (SCS JV) have introduced a range of diesel-free technologies and greener equipment. (Ref. 42)
In June renewable energy company Drax has signed an MoU agreement with British Steel to explore opportunities for its steel to be used to build the world’s largest multi-billion-pound carbon capture project at its power station in the UK. Drax is ready to invest around £2bn in the UK, with work under way as soon as 2024. The company plans to source up to 80% of the materials and services it needs for the project from British businesses, with around 13,000 tonnes of steel needed. (Ref. 43) The development of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), is aiming to be operational by 2030, and permanently remove millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year from as soon as 2027.
B2 Immigration
New UK immigration rules started to come into effect from the start of Q2. The changes are aimed at attracting top talent to the UK and cover topics such as foreign graduates from the 50 top world universities, senior specialist workers, setting up new branches of companies in the UK, and secondments to the UK as part of a high-value contract or investment by their overseas employers. (Ref. 44)
B3 UK - EU Relationship
The ongoing dispute over Northern Ireland protocol continues. The media chooses to highlight the friction between the UK and the EU rather than the cooperation between the UK and EU member nations.
On 9th June the Greek government announced that UK artists playing shows in Greece will no longer need to secure visas. (Ref. 45)
In June Spain’s Interior Ministry followed Portugal (Ref. 46) and eased passport control rules allowing UK citizens to use the EU e-gates at 15 Spanish airports. UK holidaymakers can now use automated border control e-gates to scan their passports in the selected airports like citizens of EU and Schengen nations. (Ref. 47)
Further to my report in my last quarterly review that the UK and France are working together to develop a new missile, it was confirmed in July that the UK is deepening collaboration with Japan and Italy on concept analysis to develop the next generation fighter demonstrator aircraft. (Ref. 48)
Law enforcement authorities of the EU and UK cooperated in Operation Silver Axe VII, coordinated by Europol, 25 January and 25 April 2022 and involved law enforcement authorities from 31 countries. The seventh edition of Silver Axe, Europol’s annual operation targeting illegal pesticides, identified the new trends emerging on the EU black market for plant protection products.
In July UK and EU police authorities cooperated in raids in the UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands as part of a joint operation involving agencies from across Europe. The target was an organised crime gang suspected of sending up to 10,000 people across the Dover Strait in the past 12 to 18 months.
B4 Food
In June a new UK food safety network was established. (Ref. 49)
The Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and Food Standards Agency will invest £1.6 million into new UK food safety network to tackle food poisoning, a major health challenge that costs the UK up to £9 billion each year. This is a major issue for the UK being so dependant on importing most of our food, including a third from the EU.
Appendix
Previous Brexit reports:
Life After Brexit (20.11.2021) page 1,429
Review Of First Year Of Brexit (15.2.2022) page 1,440
Review Of First Year Of Brexit - Addendum (27.3.2022) page 1,452
Brexit 2nd Year Progress To Date (22.5.2022) page 1,464
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www.ukri.org/news/food-safety-network-to-tackle-9-billion-food-poisoning-challenge/