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Post by mrcoke on Aug 18, 2022 22:55:33 GMT
I cannot dispute facts, but the fact is the UK has not yet actually entered a recession yet. Assuming it does it will simply be a consequence of world economics and do dispute with you that it is due to Brexit. It is perfectly logical to draw comparisons with other countries' economies; to ignore what is happening to economies such as the US, China, and Germany, three of the UK's main trading partners would be blinkered. I'm pleased that you understand the gravity model of trade and should not be surprised that you " agree with it entirely" as it suits your purpose. There is a basic intuitive logic to the theory that trade is influenced by size and distance of economies, but is it correct? I refer you to this paper that reveals flaws in the theory: it's rather long and technical so you may choose to read the conclusions first. The paper suggests that the gravity theory does not support the massive change that has occurred in world trade in recent decades. www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/230434/1/1048210502.pdfYou make the statement of lost EU trade; I don't believe there will be any significant lost EU trade except for niche markets such as food. There seems to be a fixation in the minds of those opposed to Brexit that leaving the EU means the UK stops trading with the EU. UK trade with the EU will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate, possibly because of the gravity theory you believe in, if for no other reason. Neither is the EU going to stop trading with one of the world's major economies on its doorstep. The UK has been the "Treasure Island" for EU trade for decades. fullfact.org/europe/is-the-uk-really-the-eus-treasure-island/The UK will continue to trade heavily with the EU in goods, but when it comes to services, the UK has the opportunity to be the world's second most dominant leading trading nation after the US. But I have a much better trade "theory" for you. The EU represents less than 20% of the world GDP and is shrinking as a proportion of world GDP and is the world's slowest growing continental economy (apart from Antarctica) and will be constrained in future by demographics, Germany being a prime example. The typical growth rate of the EU has been 2% pa. UK trade with the EU has grown at 1% pa and until the referendum exhibited an increasing negative balance of payments with the EU approaching £(70) billion pa. (£(30) billion with Germany). Even while a member of the EU, UK trade has been growing at typically 2-3% with the rest of the world. I suggest it will grow faster when new trade deals are in place and we are removing/reducing EU barriers from our imports with RoW. Conversely the rest of the world, i.e. over 80% of the world economy has been growing at 3 % pa, which is 50% faster and that is an average rate of world nations. Many nations are growing very slowly if at all, whereas others like India are growing at 8%. India's economy is already as large as the UK, its population is three times greater than the EU and growing fast. There are many other countries growing fast like India, and the UK will far better placed trading with them outside of the EU, due to what you referred to as " Trade Barriers". I can't speak for others on this MB, but personally I (and my wife) are far more culturally close to our relatives in Australia and New Zealand, than my former work colleagues in Paris and IJmuiden with whom I had a strong comradeship just as I did with my Indian colleagues in Jamshedpur. Distance is not such a major issue for services trade and the type of high added value products the UK exports. To conclude my "theory" is that UK trade will grow a lot faster trading with the fastest growing economies in the larger part of the world economy, and with many of which we have a strong historical links. When I say trade is growing, I mean the general trend since the pandemic. If you look at any graph on UK trade it shows a general upward trend on goods and services exports. There are bound to be monthly and seasonal fluctuations, in June for example fuel exports to The Netherlands jumped 67%, but that is simply flash in the pan driven by the war and need to stock gas during the summer. I worked in the steel industry for most of my working life and it was customary to de-stock before the end of the financial year in March, and it was usual for customers to de-stock at the start of their financial year to reduce feedstock before summer shut-downs. It is the nature of trade to fluctuate with economic, fiscal, and seasonal cycles. The current record deficit in trade is due to the hugely increased cost of energy imports, from which the whole of Europe is also suffering. Nothing to do with Brexit. When you say, "Trade is NOT growing with ROW it declined £2Bn in 2nd Quarter" I am a bit nonplussed. The ONS released trade data on the 12th August. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2022From this mine of information: In Q2 2022 Total exports increased by £12.3b to £178.6b* from £166.4b in Q1. In Q2 2022 Total goods exports increased by £10.7b to £96.7b* from £86.0b in Q1. In Q2 2022 Total services exports increased by £1.6b to £82.0b^ from £80.4b in Q1. In Q2 2022 EU goods exports increased by £6.9b to £49.4b* from £42.5b in Q1. In Q2 2022 Non EU goods exports increased by £3.8b to £47.2b^ from £43.5b in Q1. (It should be noted that the above numbers are rounded to the nearest decimal point, the data excludes precious metals, and the ONS changed the method of calculating in January which would have the effect of depressing some of January's data.) * - highest recorded values ever ^ - second highest recorded values ever We should not get too excited by the record high values as they are inflated by energy prices, and overwhelmed by record imports due to energy costs. I have not seen any data for a split on services exports between EU and non EU. I would like to know where you got the information that trade declined by £2b in Q2. Now to the subject of beef from Australia. You seem not to be aware that we import 170,000 tonnes pa of beef from Ireland, a country that has a lower Environmental Performance Index than Australia, who are ranked 17th out of 180 countries and higher than most of the EU. You are highly critical of Australia, but you seem quite happy to import from the EU which has the Common Agricultural Policy as a cornerstone policy. As we spread our dependency on imports for food, we will be less dependent on the evil CAP. I expect Australian (and in future Canadian) beef to displace imports from the EU. As for UK farmers, they have 10 years to get their act together; but there will always be a place for British beef on the British dining table and opportunities to increase beef, lamb, and pork exports, which is actually already happening. I wish some people had had the same concern for UK manufacturing industry that they seem to have for agriculture, which enjoys massive tax payers funding. As to what the Australian trade deal is worth, who knows? Prof. Minford has estimated £69 billion, 37 times more than the government economists. I personally don't know. What I do know it will not be politicians, civil servants, political advisers and consultants, newspaper correspondents, etc. who will do any of the trading. It will be British business men who will build UK trade as it always has been, although I do admit politicians do help to sell arms. Before moving off Australia and to be fair to my Irish distant relatives, I should point out one cultural issue. Ireland is one of only 4 (out of 27) EU countries that is higher than Australia on the Human Freedom Index, Australia being one of the freest countries in the world. You are correct on my views on national sovereignty; it is for each nation to decide what government it wants and not have laws imposed on them by anyone other than those that they have elected. It is ironic that an American President who is so against the UK leaving the EU doesn't understand the basic principal on which his own country was founded. Maybe its because the Americans have been eating beef cattle and sheep fed with hormone drugs since the 1950s? Thanks for you reply I will just respond to a few points as we have very opposite views of UK Economy. I believe we are likely to see a shrinking Economy outside EU i believe we will see that manifest quite soon and if I'm correct the only debate will be the cause You replied to a number of my points but strangely not the one you claim was your main reason for voting Brexit, to wit Parliamentary Sovereignty even Gina Miller would agree with you on that The Australia Trade Deal which is likely to be a Template for future Trade Deals is being pushed through without Parliamentary Scrutiny but by Executive only. Furthermore it contains "Secret Clauses " which binds future Governments. Surely this is far from Taking Back Control and must be anathema to you ? Even within EU, Parliament could approve or otherwise Trade Deals Is this not a step back for Sovereignty You contend UK Exports are growing, this is simply not correct Since Q1 2019 UK Exports have slightly contracted -0.3% while all our main peers in EU and ROW have increased by at least 10% and some much more than that (Source UN Comtrade) www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/12/uk-economy-shrank-in-three-months-to-juneI don't share your optimism that UK can considerably increase exports UK is an important Exporter but relatively modest in comparison to others. It is 45% of Germany and about equal to France and Netherlands (These figures include both Goods and Services) worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/exports-by-countryYou contend that UK will continue to Trade heavily with EU (currently about 50% of total) that may be the case but about 1/3 of UK Companies have stopped exporting to EU because of Red Tape I'm somewhat confused with comment on Services Export Growth They will undoubtedly for Financial Services reduce considerably over time with EU. Where are you seeing this Growth Spurt? Yes I'm quite familiar with Gravity Theory from my days at LSE as my old Economics Professor was quite keen on Formulae. He was a Rabid Socialist (maybe Communist) his favourite subject was to Nationalise Banks which he could stray onto at any given time. Fortunately this was pre-Thatcher whom I'm sure he combusted under. You are familiar with the 300 miles to Paris versus 5,000 miles to Beijing calculation. Of course there isn't an exact calculation but intuitively it's common sense Returning to Australia and Beef you say UK Farmers have 10 years "to get their act together " As you claim to be an Environmentalist I'm surprised as this will involve a race to the bottom including using Pesticides, Hormone Growth and deforestation to compete on a level playing field This is exactly what was predicted and denied as Project Fear Australia may well have a high ranking on Human Freedom, but its record on the Environment is shocking It ranked dead last of UN Countries on Climate change www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/01/australia-ranks-last-for-climate-action-among-un-member-countriesFinally you asked where I quoted UK declining Exports to ROW, I quoted from ONS Total exports of goods, excluding precious metals, fell by £2.7 billion (8.0%) in June 2022, driven by a £2.0 billion (11.9%) decrease in exports to non-EU countries, while exports to EU countries decreased by £0.7 billion (3.9%). www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2022Time will tell which of us is correct on the future growth or otherwise of the UK economy. I am acutely aware from a number of recent posts in the media, that no matter how well the UK economy performs in the future, there will be those in favour of EU membership who will forever say it would be better in the EU. Apologies if I overlooked a comment on sovereignty I did not see one in the post I was replying to. Save to say this MB has harangued about sovereignty for years now, each with their interpretation. I gave my reasons for supporting Brexit on page 1,232 and have seen nothing since to change them, in fact the behaviour of many, particularly the EU, and UK performance since leaving, makes me all the more certain the UK was correct to leave the EU. Nothing about this government surprises me any more. Trying to keep terms secret is not new, John Major tried to do it with the terms of Maastricht. You are against the trade deal with Australia and I am in favour. If we were to stop trading with all the countries that have undesirable issues, there would not be many to trade with. The EU's main trade partner is China, so the "5,000 miles to Beijing " is not such a big issue. You claim to take the high moral ground on environmental issues but the reality is the EU CAP is an indefensible policy on environmental and moral grounds. As I suspected you case for declining exports to RoW is one month's figure. FYI exports in goods also went down in January 22 (change in method of measurement), and June to Sept 2021 (£1.2b over 4 months) but rose every other month since Brexit. As I said previously, it is normal for monthly figures to fluctuate from month to month and seasonally. For the record: The Q1 2019 exports were £168,552m, c.f. Q2 2022 exports of £178,642m an all time record level. I don't expect the record to be broken again for a while with countries' economies stagnating due to inflation, but we will see.
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Post by wannabee on Aug 19, 2022 1:11:23 GMT
Thanks for you reply I will just respond to a few points as we have very opposite views of UK Economy. I believe we are likely to see a shrinking Economy outside EU i believe we will see that manifest quite soon and if I'm correct the only debate will be the cause You replied to a number of my points but strangely not the one you claim was your main reason for voting Brexit, to wit Parliamentary Sovereignty even Gina Miller would agree with you on that The Australia Trade Deal which is likely to be a Template for future Trade Deals is being pushed through without Parliamentary Scrutiny but by Executive only. Furthermore it contains "Secret Clauses " which binds future Governments. Surely this is far from Taking Back Control and must be anathema to you ? Even within EU, Parliament could approve or otherwise Trade Deals Is this not a step back for Sovereignty You contend UK Exports are growing, this is simply not correct Since Q1 2019 UK Exports have slightly contracted -0.3% while all our main peers in EU and ROW have increased by at least 10% and some much more than that (Source UN Comtrade) www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/12/uk-economy-shrank-in-three-months-to-juneI don't share your optimism that UK can considerably increase exports UK is an important Exporter but relatively modest in comparison to others. It is 45% of Germany and about equal to France and Netherlands (These figures include both Goods and Services) worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/exports-by-countryYou contend that UK will continue to Trade heavily with EU (currently about 50% of total) that may be the case but about 1/3 of UK Companies have stopped exporting to EU because of Red Tape I'm somewhat confused with comment on Services Export Growth They will undoubtedly for Financial Services reduce considerably over time with EU. Where are you seeing this Growth Spurt? Yes I'm quite familiar with Gravity Theory from my days at LSE as my old Economics Professor was quite keen on Formulae. He was a Rabid Socialist (maybe Communist) his favourite subject was to Nationalise Banks which he could stray onto at any given time. Fortunately this was pre-Thatcher whom I'm sure he combusted under. You are familiar with the 300 miles to Paris versus 5,000 miles to Beijing calculation. Of course there isn't an exact calculation but intuitively it's common sense Returning to Australia and Beef you say UK Farmers have 10 years "to get their act together " As you claim to be an Environmentalist I'm surprised as this will involve a race to the bottom including using Pesticides, Hormone Growth and deforestation to compete on a level playing field This is exactly what was predicted and denied as Project Fear Australia may well have a high ranking on Human Freedom, but its record on the Environment is shocking It ranked dead last of UN Countries on Climate change www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/01/australia-ranks-last-for-climate-action-among-un-member-countriesFinally you asked where I quoted UK declining Exports to ROW, I quoted from ONS Total exports of goods, excluding precious metals, fell by £2.7 billion (8.0%) in June 2022, driven by a £2.0 billion (11.9%) decrease in exports to non-EU countries, while exports to EU countries decreased by £0.7 billion (3.9%). www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/june2022Time will tell which of us is correct on the future growth or otherwise of the UK economy. I am acutely aware from a number of recent posts in the media, that no matter how well the UK economy performs in the future, there will be those in favour of EU membership who will forever say it would be better in the EU. I'm almost reluctant to break this News to you, but the UK Economy is currently Crap.To claim the Media is somehow misrepresenting this position is extraordinary due to EU Bias iEven more so, as the vast majority are anti EU and generally, beside the Express actually report facts. Obviously putting their own slant on it.Apologies if I overlooked a comment on sovereignty I did not see one in the post I was replying to. Save to say this MB has harangued about sovereignty for years now, each with their interpretation. I gave my reasons for supporting Brexit on page 1,232 and have seen nothing since to change them, in fact the behaviour of many, particularly the EU, and UK performance since leaving, makes me all the more certain the UK was correct to leave the EU. I have no patience to revert to previous posts without understanding the context of posts
It's a very simple question which you are apparently unwilling to answer and I expect you will continue to obfuscate, to repeat
Is your interpretation of Parliamentary Sovereignty which you have claimed to be the foremost reason for Brexit being honoured by Executive bypassing Parliament in regard to Australia Trade Deal? YES/NO
If you wish don't bother answering because the actual answer is obvious we are less Sovereign now than within EU where at least Parliament had the option to vote for or against Trade DealsNothing about this government surprises me any more. Trying to keep terms secret is not new, John Major tried to do it with the terms of Maastricht. You are against the trade deal with Australia and I am in favour. If we were to stop trading with all the countries that have undesirable issues, there would not be many to trade with. The EU's main trade partner is China, so the "5,000 miles to Beijing " is not such a big issue. What John Major may have TRIED to do is just whataboutary and he was a Tory after all, back in the present and the real world this Government is ACTUALLY pushing through "Secret Clauses " in a Trade Agreement without Parliamentary Scrutiny AND which Binds Future Governments a Double assault on Sovereignty which you apparently have no concerns about despite your previous protestations that Sovereignty was absolute Very strangeYou claim to take the high moral ground on environmental issues but the reality is the EU CAP is an indefensible policy on environmental and moral grounds. Au Contraire (mais oui, mais oui) I do not share the same objections to CAP as you seem to have, but you held out Australia (and introduced your connections to it) as a bastion of some Freedom Index (why this would be relevant to the topic I'm not sure,but there you go) I merely pointed out that as you claim to be an Environmentalist this seemed to be contradictory as Food supplied to UK under the Australia FTA would be produced using Pesticides and Hormone Growth currently banned in this Country with attendant Deforestation. Environmentaly Australia has been found by a UN Report LAST of 180 Countries on Climate Change Action as I linked. If you can reconcile your beliefs with this that's up to you, I couldn't possibly comment
www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/13/fury-as-government-waters-down-post-brexit-food-standardsAs I suspected you case for declining exports to RoW is one month's figure. FYI exports in goods also went down in January 22 (change in method of measurement), and June to Sept 2021 (£1.2b over 4 months) but rose every other month since Brexit. As I said previously, it is normal for monthly figures to fluctuate from month to month and seasonally. For the record: The Q1 2019 exports were £168,552m, c.f. Q2 2022 exports of £178,642m an all time record level. I don't expect the record to be broken again for a while with countries' economies stagnating due to inflation, but we will see That's all very interesting but you asked me to provide a link to UK Exports to ROW declining £2Bn in Q1 which I did. Interestingly you have no comment to make on Stats that I provided that show since Q1 2019 UK Exports have declined albeit marginally -0.3% despite your claims to the contrary that they are increasing strongly. In the same period UK Peer Group of Countries within EU and RIW have increased Exports by at least 10% and in some cases much more.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 19, 2022 9:43:56 GMT
Time will tell which of us is correct on the future growth or otherwise of the UK economy. I am acutely aware from a number of recent posts in the media, that no matter how well the UK economy performs in the future, there will be those in favour of EU membership who will forever say it would be better in the EU. I'm almost reluctant to break this News to you, but the UK Economy is currently Crap.To claim the Media is somehow misrepresenting this position is extraordinary due to EU Bias iEven more so, as the vast majority are anti EU and generally, beside the Express actually report facts. Obviously putting their own slant on it.Apologies if I overlooked a comment on sovereignty I did not see one in the post I was replying to. Save to say this MB has harangued about sovereignty for years now, each with their interpretation. I gave my reasons for supporting Brexit on page 1,232 and have seen nothing since to change them, in fact the behaviour of many, particularly the EU, and UK performance since leaving, makes me all the more certain the UK was correct to leave the EU. I have no patience to revert to previous posts without understanding the context of posts
It's a very simple question which you are apparently unwilling to answer and I expect you will continue to obfuscate, to repeat
Is your interpretation of Parliamentary Sovereignty which you have claimed to be the foremost reason for Brexit being honoured by Executive bypassing Parliament in regard to Australia Trade Deal? YES/NO
If you wish don't bother answering because the actual answer is obvious we are less Sovereign now than within EU where at least Parliament had the option to vote for or against Trade DealsNothing about this government surprises me any more. Trying to keep terms secret is not new, John Major tried to do it with the terms of Maastricht. You are against the trade deal with Australia and I am in favour. If we were to stop trading with all the countries that have undesirable issues, there would not be many to trade with. The EU's main trade partner is China, so the "5,000 miles to Beijing " is not such a big issue. What John Major may have TRIED to do is just whataboutary and he was a Tory after all, back in the present and the real world this Government is ACTUALLY pushing through "Secret Clauses " in a Trade Agreement without Parliamentary Scrutiny AND which Binds Future Governments a Double assault on Sovereignty which you apparently have no concerns about despite your previous protestations that Sovereignty was absolute Very strangeYou claim to take the high moral ground on environmental issues but the reality is the EU CAP is an indefensible policy on environmental and moral grounds. Au Contraire (mais oui, mais oui) I do not share the same objections to CAP as you seem to have, but you held out Australia (and introduced your connections to it) as a bastion of some Freedom Index (why this would be relevant to the topic I'm not sure,but there you go) I merely pointed out that as you claim to be an Environmentalist this seemed to be contradictory as Food supplied to UK under the Australia FTA would be produced using Pesticides and Hormone Growth currently banned in this Country with attendant Deforestation. Environmentaly Australia has been found by a UN Report LAST of 180 Countries on Climate Change Action as I linked. If you can reconcile your beliefs with this that's up to you, I couldn't possibly comment
www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/13/fury-as-government-waters-down-post-brexit-food-standardsAs I suspected you case for declining exports to RoW is one month's figure. FYI exports in goods also went down in January 22 (change in method of measurement), and June to Sept 2021 (£1.2b over 4 months) but rose every other month since Brexit. As I said previously, it is normal for monthly figures to fluctuate from month to month and seasonally. For the record: The Q1 2019 exports were £168,552m, c.f. Q2 2022 exports of £178,642m an all time record level. I don't expect the record to be broken again for a while with countries' economies stagnating due to inflation, but we will see That's all very interesting but you asked me to provide a link to UK Exports to ROW declining £2Bn in Q1 which I did. Interestingly you have no comment to make on Stats that I provided that show since Q1 2019 UK Exports have declined albeit marginally -0.3% despite your claims to the contrary that they are increasing strongly. In the same period UK Peer Group of Countries within EU and RIW have increased Exports by at least 10% and in some cases much more.
If you look 3 lines above it says: The Q1 2019 exports were £168,552m, c.f. Q2 2022 exports of £178,642m an all time record level. Exports on a quarterly basis are at an all time high. Where did I say exports were increasing strongly? You say "the UK Economy is currently Crap." but we have full employment, record low unemployment, record investment, highest quarterly exports in history in Q2 2022. You say "That's all very interesting but you asked me to provide a link to UK Exports to ROW declining £2Bn in Q1 which I did.", but exports to ROW were £43,488m in Q1 2022, the highest since the pandemic. So the exports are increasing steadily (Not "strongly" note) At least we agree on the Tory party, but I think you need to be more informed on the EU CAP. You are correct about Australia on climate change, but at least they are now starting to do something about it: www.industry.gov.au/news/australia-submits-new-emissions-target-to-unfccc#:~:text=We%20will%20reduce%20greenhouse%20gas,on%20progress%20towards%20these%20targets It is actually an area that could yield significant benefits to the UK, working with the Aussies on the issues now we have a trade agreement and AUKUS. There is already strong collaboration between Australia and the UK on many issues including science, innovation, space, further education and research, etc and there's more: ukaustraliaseason.com/#:~:text=A%20collaboration%20between%20the%20British,and%20a%20public%20engagement%20programme. It will be great to work closer with the Aussies (my late brother emigrated there in the 60s), so I have a strong affinity. If they do deliver on their aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, they will be doing better than many EU countries.
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Post by wannabee on Aug 19, 2022 11:00:08 GMT
If you look 3 lines above it says: The Q1 2019 exports were £168,552m, c.f. Q2 2022 exports of £178,642m an all time record level. Exports on a quarterly basis are at an all time high. Where did I say exports were increasing strongly? You have always cautioned against using Monthly figures to gauge trends, what makes a quarter any better? I provided you with Export Stats that show since Q1 2019 UK Exports have retracted while in the same period all our EU and ROW Peer Countries have increased by at least 10% and some by 20%/30%/40%
To me that shows UK as a Laggard, perhaps its just meYou say "the UK Economy is currently Crap." but we have full employment, record low unemployment, record investment, highest quarterly exports in history in Q2 2022. You have continuously cited high employment and indeed labour shortages in EU as a reason why Brexit is not the cause of Labour shortages in UK so your para above is hardly germane
There are 1.3M approx people unemployed However there are a further 2.3M claiming UC either because they are underemployed or simply very poorly paid. So the headline number may suit Politicians the underlying number is quite different You say "That's all very interesting but you asked me to provide a link to UK Exports to ROW declining £2Bn in Q1 which I did.", but exports to ROW were £43,488m in Q1 2022, the highest since the pandemic. So the exports are increasing steadily (Not "strongly" note) See first answer above, they are not At least we agree on the Tory party, but I think you need to be more informed on the EU CAP. If you mean that there actions have reduced Sovereignty then we agree
I'm sufficiently informed on CAP and acutely aware that HoC Committee have described UK ELM as being based "on a wing and a prayer "You are correct about Australia on climate change, but at least they are now starting to do something about it: Let's hope so they can only improve from last position www.industry.gov.au/news/australia-submits-new-emissions-target-to-unfccc#:~:text=We%20will%20reduce%20greenhouse%20gas,on%20progress%20towards%20these%20targets It is actually an area that could yield significant benefits to the UK, working with the Aussies on the issues now we have a trade agreement and AUKUS. There is already strong collaboration between Australia and the UK on many issues including science, innovation, space, further education and research, etc and there's more: Again we shall see if UK can defy Gravity but it will be to the detriment of the Environment given the Agricultural methods employed by Australia never mind the extended distance of transportation will do to Carbon Footprint ukaustraliaseason.com/#:~:text=A%20collaboration%20between%20the%20British,and%20a%20public%20engagement%20programme. It will be great to work closer with the Aussies (my late brother emigrated there in the 60s), so I have a strong affinity. If they do deliver on their aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, they will be doing better than many EU countries. Like you I don't set a lot of store on forecasts, so let's see how they do eh
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 19, 2022 11:08:18 GMT
Gaps on supermarket shelves, inferior quality fruit, prices rising faster and higher than a hot air balloon, a winter of fuel misery ahead of us, and a PM who has gone awol. Nothing to do with Brexit **** off, pardon my language. You forgot the value of the pound going through the floor. Again, not entirely due to Brexit, but one of a number of measures that will have been affected by our distancing ourselves from international markets, the issues around imports and exports and increased red tape. In other words, making ourselves less competitive overall. It's no coincidence that, just like during Covid, we are predicted to perform worst of all out of the G7. It's a perfect storm of which Brexit is an integral part.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 19, 2022 13:08:04 GMT
If you look 3 lines above it says: The Q1 2019 exports were £168,552m, c.f. Q2 2022 exports of £178,642m an all time record level. Exports on a quarterly basis are at an all time high. Where did I say exports were increasing strongly? You have always cautioned against using Monthly figures to gauge trends, what makes a quarter any better? I provided you with Export Stats that show since Q1 2019 UK Exports have retracted while in the same period all our EU and ROW Peer Countries have increased by at least 10% and some by 20%/30%/40%
To me that shows UK as a Laggard, perhaps its just meYou say "the UK Economy is currently Crap." but we have full employment, record low unemployment, record investment, highest quarterly exports in history in Q2 2022. You have continuously cited high employment and indeed labour shortages in EU as a reason why Brexit is not the cause of Labour shortages in UK so your para above is hardly germane
There are 1.3M approx people unemployed However there are a further 2.3M claiming UC either because they are underemployed or simply very poorly paid. So the headline number may suit Politicians the underlying number is quite different You say "That's all very interesting but you asked me to provide a link to UK Exports to ROW declining £2Bn in Q1 which I did.", but exports to ROW were £43,488m in Q1 2022, the highest since the pandemic. So the exports are increasing steadily (Not "strongly" note) See first answer above, they are not At least we agree on the Tory party, but I think you need to be more informed on the EU CAP. If you mean that there actions have reduced Sovereignty then we agree
I'm sufficiently informed on CAP and acutely aware that HoC Committee have described UK ELM as being based "on a wing and a prayer "You are correct about Australia on climate change, but at least they are now starting to do something about it: Let's hope so they can only improve from last position www.industry.gov.au/news/australia-submits-new-emissions-target-to-unfccc#:~:text=We%20will%20reduce%20greenhouse%20gas,on%20progress%20towards%20these%20targets It is actually an area that could yield significant benefits to the UK, working with the Aussies on the issues now we have a trade agreement and AUKUS. There is already strong collaboration between Australia and the UK on many issues including science, innovation, space, further education and research, etc and there's more: Again we shall see if UK can defy Gravity but it will be to the detriment of the Environment given the Agricultural methods employed by Australia never mind the extended distance of transportation will do to Carbon Footprint ukaustraliaseason.com/#:~:text=A%20collaboration%20between%20the%20British,and%20a%20public%20engagement%20programme. It will be great to work closer with the Aussies (my late brother emigrated there in the 60s), so I have a strong affinity. If they do deliver on their aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, they will be doing better than many EU countries. Like you I don't set a lot of store on forecasts, so let's see how they do ehIn answer to your query, " what makes a quarter any better?" here is the ONS statement: "Trade in services data are processed quarterly, so monthly forecasts are made to provide a complete trade total; this means that the latest months are uncertain. "Trade statistics for any one month can be volatile; for that reason we recommend comparing the latest three months against the preceding three months and the same three months of the previous year. ["same three months of previous year" is because of seasonal fluctuation, financial year impact, etc.) "When examining the trade in goods data, precious metals (which are high-value, low-volume products) are removed from some analysis as they can make a large contribution to trade in goods as a whole; the trade excluding "precious metals" series may provide a better guide to the emerging trade picture.As part of their monthly data release the ONS invariably correct previous months' data in all manner of reports: trade, employment, GDP, etc. These corrections can go back as far as a year. They usually do not make a lot of difference, shifting one month's -ve change into another month's +ve change. Interestingly a year after the pandemic the ONS corrected the drop in UK GDP during the pandemic reducing the drop in GDP marginally; we were still the worst in the G7 (which I blame on government policy (slow to lockdown, management of the elderly, shortages of PPE, etc.). In answer to your comment "the extended distance of transportation will do to Carbon Footprint"
All the food coming from the EU is transported by lorry second only to air as the most polluting form of transport. Very little food is moved by rail (except the tunnel), which is the best environmental form of transport in my opinion. Shipping is second to rail and a long way better than road. But the real difference is the size of the consignment. Lorry loads are typically 40 tonnes, whereas ship loads are 100,000s of tonnes. The environmental impact of transport per tonne of goods is very much lower by ship than road. To give you an example when I worked at Redcar, it was cheaper to transport coal from Australia per tonne to Redcar than from Co Durham, just a few miles away, because the cost per tonne by lorry (fuel, labour, depreciation, insurance, etc) is for more per tonne moved than by ship. Shipping is responsible for a major part of the world's transport emissions because of the vast amounts of goods moved around the world but claims it is the least environmentally damaging form of commercial transport and, compared with land-based industry, is a comparatively minor contributor to pollution from human activities. www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-fact/environmental-initiatives/That is not to say nothing should be done to improve shipping emissions, the point I'm making is the thousands of miles of extra distance is not the issue that the layman might think it is.
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Post by wannabee on Aug 19, 2022 15:21:40 GMT
My point surely understood is that measuring Exports over a period of three and a halfyears which show slight negative growth is more representative than selecting 3 months from within that 3 and a half years
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Post by toppercorner on Aug 19, 2022 16:30:48 GMT
if this is indeed real and from 2018, then our current govt would know all the same details, have the same information and in my opinion, be done for treason.
the tories have ruined this great country, and they've poisoned the well for generations after.
i can't remember who said it or where, but i do remember some twat saying we'd 'had enough of experts' (last part paraphrased)
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 19, 2022 16:43:17 GMT
Gaps on supermarket shelves, inferior quality fruit, prices rising faster and higher than a hot air balloon, a winter of fuel misery ahead of us, and a PM who has gone awol. Nothing to do with Brexit **** off, pardon my language. Gaps on supermarket shelves:"Empty shelves in German 🇩🇪 supermarkets. Cooking oil already rationed by markets due to shortages. Pork +46% in the last 4 weeks - and that's just the beginning."Germany's retailers fear supply problems to last until mid-2023 english.news.cn/20220706/209a4dcafdbc4590957aa42c2ec49361/c.htmlGermany sees alarming shortage in essential medicine www.dw.com/en/germany-sees-alarming-shortage-in-essential-medicine/a-62567862Facing labour shortages, Germany sweetens immigration offer www.reuters.com/world/europe/facing-labour-shortages-germany-sweetens-immigration-offer-2022-07-06/Has Germany left the EU? Or does the UK have exactly the same problems? In case you have not heard about it, there has been a worldwide pandemic and the whole of the world's logistics is in a mess. From Packed Ports To Empty Store Shelves: How We Can Solve The US Supply Chain Snarlwww.forbes.com/sites/forbescommunicationscouncil/2022/04/08/from-packed-ports-to-empty-store-shelves-how-we-can-solve-the-us-supply-chain-snarl/?sh=485ff2754806 US has had 2 quarters of reduced GDP and China has a reduced GDP in Q£. They are the 2 world's major econimies. inferior quality fruit,
In case you have not heard about it, there is a global food crisis. www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-updateThere are basic commodities like grain and food oils that are in a wolrdwide short supply and food processors are unable to produce. The war in Ukraine triggered a global food shortage www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2022/06/14/the-war-in-ukraine-triggered-a-global-food-shortage/Various countries are adopting protectionost measures which is aggravating the world food shortage www.reuters.com/markets/europe/food-crisis-fuels-fears-protectionism-compounding-shortages-2022-05-24/prices rising faster and higher than a hot air balloon,UK inflation is just above the EU average and the UK government has done very little to stem it. Germany, France, Italy have taken huge measures to try and keep their inflation down but they will have to pay for their actions in the long term. tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeHas the Netherlands left the EU? tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/inflation-cpi#:~:text=Near%2047%20Years-,The%20Netherlands'%20annual%20inflation%20rate%20jumped%20to%2010.3%20percent%20in,8.6%20percent%20a%20month%20earlier Has Spain left the EU? tradingeconomics.com/spain/inflation-cpiGerman inflation: Soaring costs and shortages push industry to the brink edition.cnn.com/2022/04/28/economy/german-inflation-industry-recession/index.html a winter of fuel misery ahead of us,
That is correct the "us" being most of Europe. Germany are actually talking about opening the second gas main to Russia, they are that desperate. (See Ukraine thread) and a PM who has gone awol. Well we have all been telling him he's not wanted. Nothing to do with BrexitCorrect; the issues you mention are real, no one denies them, but they are very, very little to do with Brexit. If the UK had remained in the EU it is very probable we would be part of the EU Pandemic Recovery Fund and paying to help other countries more affected than the the UK by the pandemic to recover from the pandemic. A fund where the member nations pay their dues, and the EU Commission decides where the money goes, and can withhold money if countries don't comply with the rules. Thank God we are out of the EU. **** off, pardon my language. you're forgiven
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Post by wannabee on Aug 19, 2022 16:51:18 GMT
To be fair these guys got it spot on what many people suspected but couldn't prove Now the Economy is tanking there is no hiding place
Many Brexiteers are at different stages of Grief Denial,Anger,Bargaining,Depression and finally Acceptance
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Post by partickpotter on Aug 19, 2022 17:54:19 GMT
To be fair these guys got it spot on what many people suspected but couldn't prove Now the Economy is tanking there is no hiding place Many Brexiteers Remoaners are at different stages of Grief Denial,Anger,Bargaining,Depression and finally Acceptance You seem confused. So, I decided, most graciously I think, to correct your error. I don’t expect or need thanks. Just my wee good deed for the day.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 20, 2022 8:43:08 GMT
if this is indeed real and from 2018, then our current govt would know all the same details, have the same information and in my opinion, be done for treason. the tories have ruined this great country, and they've poisoned the well for generations after. i can't remember who said it or where, but i do remember some twat saying we'd 'had enough of experts' (last part paraphrased) They couldn't have got that more accurate.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 21, 2022 17:39:14 GMT
You just gotta laugh at these charlatans! "We've got leave the EU to get cheaper food and reclaim our sovereignty"....six years later..."We've got to join the CPTPP to get cheaper food"..... How braindead do you have to be to read the Daily Express?
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 21, 2022 17:41:42 GMT
You just gotta laugh at these charlatans! "We've got leave the EU to get cheaper food and reclaim our sovereignty"....six years later..."We've got to join the CPTPP to get cheaper food"..... How braindead do you have to be to read the Daily Express? You are the only Brexiteer I know of who reads the Express.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Aug 21, 2022 17:43:32 GMT
Well it nearly happened. Nearly a full day without a post on a political thread. Alas it wasn’t to be but I’m hopeful going forward
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Aug 21, 2022 17:44:01 GMT
You just gotta laugh at these charlatans! "We've got leave the EU to get cheaper food and reclaim our sovereignty"....six years later..."We've got to join the CPTPP to get cheaper food"..... How braindead do you have to be to read the Daily Express? You are the only Brexiteer I know of who reads the Express. 🤣
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Aug 21, 2022 19:05:26 GMT
Ooops....
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 21, 2022 19:17:30 GMT
We do need to elect a decent government that "does the right thing". I've no idea where that government is going to come from. I think it is going to be hard to promote environmental policies given the economic issues facing the UK and the rest of the world, unfortunately.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 22, 2022 6:50:45 GMT
We do need to elect a decent government that "does the right thing". I've no idea where that government is going to come from. I think it is going to be hard to promote environmental policies given the economic issues facing the UK and the rest of the world, unfortunately. It shouldn’t be. Green energy should mean cheaper bills and energy security for us all. We need a green revolution. New houses built with solar panels etc. We have to move away from fossil fuels as much as we can and it should be cheaper. There’s no reason bar the status quo that means it shouldn’t do.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 22, 2022 7:04:52 GMT
We do need to elect a decent government that "does the right thing". I've no idea where that government is going to come from. I think it is going to be hard to promote environmental policies given the economic issues facing the UK and the rest of the world, unfortunately. It shouldn’t be. Green energy should mean cheaper bills and energy security for us all. We need a green revolution. New houses built with solar panels etc. We have to move away from fossil fuels as much as we can and it should be cheaper. There’s no reason bar the status quo that means it shouldn’t do. Bayern, I'd have thought short term we are more likely to favour any policy that gives cheaper fuel than others.....whether it be green or not. Hopefully the green goals remain as the medium and long term strategy. All I'm saying is that Green issues will take a back seat in people's minds compared to the cost of living in any election.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Aug 22, 2022 7:11:35 GMT
It shouldn’t be. Green energy should mean cheaper bills and energy security for us all. We need a green revolution. New houses built with solar panels etc. We have to move away from fossil fuels as much as we can and it should be cheaper. There’s no reason bar the status quo that means it shouldn’t do. Bayern, I'd have thought short term we are more likely to favour any policy that gives cheaper fuel than others.....whether it be green or not. Hopefully the green goals remain as the medium and long term strategy. All I'm saying is that Green issues will take a back seat in people's minds compared to the cost of living in any election. And they shouldn’t. The climate emergency is a real thing and if people want their kids/grandkids to survive as they long as they do then they need to act. And they should get a cheaper bill and energy security in the meantime. The whole situation (climate change, Russia and energy prices) should be driving everyone to want cheaper more secure energy. Its been an issue that’s been coming for 20 years and successive governments have failed to act.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 22, 2022 7:31:49 GMT
Bayern, I'd have thought short term we are more likely to favour any policy that gives cheaper fuel than others.....whether it be green or not. Hopefully the green goals remain as the medium and long term strategy. All I'm saying is that Green issues will take a back seat in people's minds compared to the cost of living in any election. And they shouldn’t. The climate emergency is a real thing and if people want their kids/grandkids to survive as they long as they do then they need to act. And they should get a cheaper bill and energy security in the meantime. The whole situation (climate change, Russia and energy prices) should be driving everyone to want cheaper more secure energy. Its been an issue that’s been coming for 20 years and successive governments have failed to act. I don't disagree with that , but what I think a grester priority at an election will be the cost of living not the environment, irrespective of what people should or shouldn't think. I have not seen one new build to include solar panels, most building and house moves are done on the basis of cost and price.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Aug 22, 2022 9:43:41 GMT
And they shouldn’t. The climate emergency is a real thing and if people want their kids/grandkids to survive as they long as they do then they need to act. And they should get a cheaper bill and energy security in the meantime. The whole situation (climate change, Russia and energy prices) should be driving everyone to want cheaper more secure energy. Its been an issue that’s been coming for 20 years and successive governments have failed to act. I don't disagree with that , but what I think a grester priority at an election will be the cost of living not the environment, irrespective of what people should or shouldn't think. I have not seen one new build to include solar panels, most building and house moves are done on the basis of cost and price. I wonder what the tipping point will be? Missus was watching a property programme the other week (can't remember which one) in which some guy undertook a 'new build' in which his objective - through solar panels, rainwater harvest, insulation, ground source pumps, storage batteries etc was to have utility bills of no more than £100 per year. To look at from a distance the house was just a fairly ordinary 3 bed detatched you could find on any new estate so didn't require you to live in some weird looking building. If average utility bills are going to reach £5-6k pa as widely predicted then any additional cost on the build to 'eco' it over the standard mortgage period of 25 years will start to look attractive.
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Post by Hereward the Wake ᛊᛏᛟᚲᛖ on Aug 22, 2022 9:57:24 GMT
It shouldn’t be. Green energy should mean cheaper bills and energy security for us all. We need a green revolution. New houses built with solar panels etc. We have to move away from fossil fuels as much as we can and it should be cheaper. There’s no reason bar the status quo that means it shouldn’t do. Bayern, I'd have thought short term we are more likely to favour any policy that gives cheaper fuel than others.....whether it be green or not. Hopefully the green goals remain as the medium and long term strategy. All I'm saying is that Green issues will take a back seat in people's minds compared to the cost of living in any election. I'll support anything that brings energy prices down personally and if that's not green then it's not green . Money in my families pot in more important to me than so called "climate change" and I'm sure most people think the same
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Aug 22, 2022 10:05:58 GMT
I don't disagree with that , but what I think a grester priority at an election will be the cost of living not the environment, irrespective of what people should or shouldn't think. I have not seen one new build to include solar panels, most building and house moves are done on the basis of cost and price. I wonder what the tipping point will be? Missus was watching a property programme the other week (can't remember which one) in which some guy undertook a 'new build' in which his objective - through solar panels, rainwater harvest, insulation, ground source pumps, storage batteries etc was to have utility bills of no more than £100 per year. To look at from a distance the house was just a fairly ordinary 3 bed detatched you could find on any new estate so didn't require you to live in some weird looking building. If average utility bills are going to reach £5-6k pa as widely predicted then any additional cost on the build to 'eco' it over the standard mortgage period of 25 years will start to look attractive. Good point Seymour, I agree we should be building every property with the environment in mind. There's been a tremendous amount of houses been built around where I live and I get the impression that they are being built as quickly and cheaply as possible for short term profit, no doubt meeting the minimum standards of insulation and greeness. It is already difficult for the first time buyer to buy a house.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Aug 22, 2022 12:10:47 GMT
Bayern, I'd have thought short term we are more likely to favour any policy that gives cheaper fuel than others.....whether it be green or not. Hopefully the green goals remain as the medium and long term strategy. All I'm saying is that Green issues will take a back seat in people's minds compared to the cost of living in any election. And they shouldn’t. The climate emergency is a real thing and if people want their kids/grandkids to survive as they long as they do then they need to act. And they should get a cheaper bill and energy security in the meantime. The whole situation (climate change, Russia and energy prices) should be driving everyone to want cheaper more secure energy. Its been an issue that’s been coming for 20 years and successive governments have failed to act. Longer. Way longer. Climate change (global warming as it used to be called) became important and acknowledged in the seventies and a public headline in the late 80s. We've done very little for the best part of 50 odd years. And if you really wanted to go back further, it was published over a century ago in various papers including this NZ one: Lots of reasons for doing little since - short-termism, the influence of the oil lobby and oil-producing countries, not much profit to be made from protecting the planet, etc etc. Unfortunately, we're all going to pay a very heavy price for such inaction. But, we're only one species with no more right to exist than any other. If we choose to shit in our own beds and make them unliveable, there isn't a magic wand that'll make it all just go away. Bit of a digression from Brexit, but worth it. Perhaps one day we might take it seriously enough to do something tangible about it. Not enough people seem to care, not enough governments have the bravery to enact sufficiently robust policies. Put the two together and I suspect we may be too far down the road already to avert disaster.
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Post by mrcoke on Aug 22, 2022 13:09:50 GMT
I wonder what the tipping point will be? Missus was watching a property programme the other week (can't remember which one) in which some guy undertook a 'new build' in which his objective - through solar panels, rainwater harvest, insulation, ground source pumps, storage batteries etc was to have utility bills of no more than £100 per year. To look at from a distance the house was just a fairly ordinary 3 bed detatched you could find on any new estate so didn't require you to live in some weird looking building. If average utility bills are going to reach £5-6k pa as widely predicted then any additional cost on the build to 'eco' it over the standard mortgage period of 25 years will start to look attractive. Good point Seymour, I agree we should be building every property with the environment in mind. There's been a tremendous amount of houses been built around where I live and I get the impression that they are being built as quickly and cheaply as possible for short term profit, no doubt meeting the minimum standards of insulation and greeness. It is already difficult for the first time buyer to buy a house. The government have announced plans to reduce the environmental impact of new housing: www.gov.uk/government/news/new-homes-to-produce-nearly-a-third-less-carbonAs I gave indicated in many of my long posts the UK has done more than any other major economy to reduce climate changing emissions, and has a more ambitious improvement plane than any other major economy. Regrettably many environmentalists say it is still not enough and still not fast enough to hit the 2050 target. Nevertheless despite increased weather extremes people don't support many green measures. I actually think the government are currently letting inflation rip as a measure to force the population into action themselves, such as turning off/down unnecessary items like radiators, power on electrical goods not in use, reducing heating times, and investing in measures like insulation, more efficient electrical goods, boilers, etc. I also think that they are letting inflation rip now so that in a year's time, as we get closer to an election, the present high increases will drop out of the annual figures and things will "feel" better going into an GE. As rwb suggests, it could all be too late now. The increases in emissions by China and India dwarf Europe and North America planned reductions.
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Post by toppercorner on Aug 23, 2022 22:36:34 GMT
the people of kent can thank their local ex-MEP for the imminent loss of jobs and business in the area, now that Eurostar has cited brexit as a reason for now not stopping in either Ebbsfleet and Ashford, until 2025 (if at all).
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Aug 24, 2022 20:18:17 GMT
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Post by 4372 on Aug 24, 2022 21:11:51 GMT
So,Mr Coke I don't live in Germany, Spain or the Netherlands. I don't need to pay attention to the state of their economies. I live in the UK, where we were promised sunlit uplands, more cake than we can eat, 40 new hospitals, and control of the borders, amongst other things.
What we have seen is the return to war in Europe, supply issues in pharmaceuticals and groceries, an abject and shameful attempt to "control borders", including illegal deportation, and astronomical price rises, especially in fuels. We have been landed with an embarrasment of a PM, clearly the worst since Walpole, who had to resign in disgrace and we have brought all this, and more, on ourselves. If you voted for Johnson in 2019, I am not sure that you can feign surprise that a Johnson government would turn out to be fundamentally corrupt. This is not even the worst of Brexit in action. I would reserve that for the collapse in the free movement inside the EU, and the free flow of trade we used to enjoy. The issue of the Northern Ireland Protocol,and the future of the UK inside EU Science projects are still to be resolved.
Finally, the notion that the country is more sovereign somehow than EU countries, with their own democratically elected governments, is actually quite a slur. It may have been better to have tackled our own democratic deficiencies first.
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