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Post by muggleton on Jul 1, 2022 21:45:02 GMT
I am genuinely sorry to hear that. It is a fact though that whatever direction the UK takes there are those that gain and those that suffer. I worked in and around the steel industry virtually all my life. During the UK's membership of the EEC and EU I witnessed the UK industry being decimated with 100,000s jobs lost while The Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, and Spain meanwhile increased theirs; in Spain's case at the UK taxpayers expense. This week I witnessed the demolition of another one of the plants I used to manage, but fortunately we are now investing massively in new infrastructure, new green industries and financial technology. People rightly complain of inflation and loss of real earnings, but these are worldwide issues and loss of real earnings is worse in a lot of EU countries. On the other hand the scourge of unemployment, which we suffered as UK industry was exported to the continent and the Far East, is the lowest for decades, and there has never been a better time to get a job, with vacancies at an all time high. You have vastly more knowledge of UK Steel Industry than I'll ever have but your explanation that its somehow because of EEC/EU is far too simplistic British Steel as was nationalised in 1967 was on it's arse long before UK joined the EEC. A standing joke and practice in early 70s was if you were driving on M4 from England into Wales people would count the minutes it would take to pass the Port Talbot Plant and calculate the amount of £Millions in subsidies the UK Taxpayer had incurred during the journey At around the same time many European customers began to question the reliability of supply due to the frequent industrial disputes effecting production and also the rising cost of its products Two years into EEC membership things got even worse with the 1975/76 Oil crisis when costs skyrocketed and UK was forced to accept a huge Bailout from IMF with onerous restrictions on spending which limited continued support for loss making British Steel such that closures of Steelworks commenced Clyde being the first in 1977. How you can claim 4 years of EEC membership brought about this demise is beyond me The newly elected 1979 Thatcher Government as well as actively pursuing an economic policy away from Manufacturing (coal was the target of choice but had a knock-on effect with Steel in favour of Service Industries. It also pursued a Monetary Policy of keeping £ high which made Steel Exports even more uncompetitive The 1980 General Steel Strike was in support of a 20% wage increase Management had initially offered 2% but upped it to 6% but said the loss making industry would have to lose one third of its workforce By the end of 1980 7 years after joining the EEC the numbers employed in the terminally declining Steel Industry had reduced by half from 320K to 167K for the reasons outlined above. The Industry was Privatised in 1988 and various attempts to modernise technology have had very mixed results from various ownerships. Completion from a glut of cheap Chinese subsidised steel in the last decade or so Ironically UK Steel has been spared from some of these excesses by EU Tarrif Restrictions As a Socio-economic exercise its interesting to take Consett which was one of the Steelworks closed in 1980 as an example of the effect on a one industry town. At the time the population was about 30,000 with 4,300 directly employed in the Steelworks and perhaps 3 to 4 times that indirectly. As a further act of vandalism the Government decided to close the railway effectively cutting it off from easy access to Newcastle 15 miles away to help re-employment or stimulate local industry. Today employment levels are back to 1980 levels but the relatively high paying Steelwork jobs have been replaced by call centre, distribution centre zero hours contract type jobs. Your other claim of Low Unemployment is equally questionable. There are 5.8M people currently in receipt of Universal Credit and therefore not counted as unemployed or underemployed They fall into 2 categories. 40% or about 2.3M are working poor of the profile of the people of Consett I described. There jobs as such and many have several are precarious in nature, lack security and typically zero hours contract. The remaining 60% or about 3.5M are for whatever reason , disability, mental illness, long Covid, illness are not available for work but are not classified as unemployed These are not peak figures but relatively constant. All of the above contributes to the appalling UK Productivity Levels Fine words about a high wage, high knowledge economy are stirring but unless policies are put in place in terms of Education, retraining, innovation etc they just remain words. Leveling up as a Policy is admirable, its attempted implementation is a Joke. It is underfunded at £4.4B it is centrally rather than regionally controlled, selection is politically influenced, there is too much emphasis on infrastructure rather than knowledge and innovation and most critically it has absolutely no KII Measurements Finally your attachment which I initially thought was an add for Hovis When the Recar Steelworks closed in 2016 it resulted in a 6% drop in UK Carbon Emmissions It will also cost Billions of UKTaxpaers money to clean up the site after the Thai Company SSI walked away Really interesting background to the steel industry I wasn't aware of, cheers, and agree the productivity gap between UK and comparable countries has to be a priority (it won't be). Re Levelling Up, a term I don't even like using as its so obviously disingenuous from this Govt, I've a question about Stoke and the last Labour Govt. Was Stoke a better place in 2010 than 1997 (I wasn't around in either), and what role did Govt policy play in that. As an ignorant outsider my impression would be that public services were significantly improved, pay generally rose with a buoyant economy for much of the period, and public sector pay and benefits were uplifted. All of these would have a disproportionate impact on a place like Stoke. On the flip side, I can't think of any major Infrastructure/public realm investment (again from a position of complete ignorance). So life probably got a bit better for the average person, but the sort of transformative regeneration that larger Midlands and Northern cities saw managed to pass Stoke by. That anywhere near anyone's recollection?
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Post by muggleton on Jul 2, 2022 9:26:07 GMT
Turnout at the independence marches in Wales today will be interesting. The movement for constitutional change there is subtler than in other parts of the UK, but gathering momentum.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 2, 2022 12:56:59 GMT
Inflation is soaring around the world. The UK's inflation is only marginally higher than the European mean, which would be about the same as the UK except for the much lower inflation in France. The balance of payments is the highest ever because of energy prices. Oil and gas price increases have been huge and the war has led to the dollar rising against 6 other major currencies and energy is traded in dollars. France's lower inflation is due to 70% of their power generation by nuclear power; plus Macron instructed the state owned French power companies not to pass on increased costs to French consumers, including French industry, last year. Disposable income has declined in many countries, many more than the UK. One of the extra driving forces for inflation is wage increases which have been a lot lower in other countries like France. If you deduct their inflation from wage increase many countries have a bigger drop in disposable income than the UK. tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growthtradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rateEdit: A very crude and far from accurate deduction of inflation from wage growth using the above figures gives the following figures for change in disposable income: USA +3.1%, UK -2.3%, Australia -2.7%, Canada -3.4%, Spain -5%, France -5.3%, Euro zone -5.9%, Netherlands -6%, Italy -7.1%, and Germany -9% (which does not seem believable to me, and misaligned to the Euro zone mean) "A very crude and far from accurate" - sometimes the Brexit jokes write themselves. 😁 The key thing will be whether Brexit makes the UK more or less resilient and adaptable to the threats and opportunities of an extremely challenging external environment. At best the jury is out on that one, though I genuinely hope your optimism is justified. I wish to make a correction. As I suspected the figure for Germany is incorrect in my post. The Germans with their usual thoroughness report the net wage growth in the first tradingeconomics link, so I was wrong to deduct the inflation rate in the second tradingeconomucs link. Here is an official German source indicating -1.8% wage growth, better than the UK's -2.3% and far better than most of the rest of Europe. www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Labour/Earnings/Real-Earnings-Net-Earnings/_node.html#:~:text=30%20May%202022%20Real%20earnings,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202022.
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Post by mtrstudent on Jul 2, 2022 16:08:42 GMT
"A very crude and far from accurate" - sometimes the Brexit jokes write themselves. 😁 The key thing will be whether Brexit makes the UK more or less resilient and adaptable to the threats and opportunities of an extremely challenging external environment. At best the jury is out on that one, though I genuinely hope your optimism is justified. I wish to make a correction. As I suspected the figure for Germany is incorrect in my post. The Germans with their usual thoroughness report the net wage growth in the first tradingeconomics link, so I was wrong to deduct the inflation rate in the second tradingeconomucs link. Here is an official German source indicating -1.8% wage growth, better than the UK's -2.3% and far better than most of the rest of Europe. www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Labour/Earnings/Real-Earnings-Net-Earnings/_node.html#:~:text=30%20May%202022%20Real%20earnings,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202022. Are the latest numbers much use apart from giving people stuff to argue about? Since I started looking, every economy wobbles a bit up and down every few months, dunno why.
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 2, 2022 17:02:11 GMT
On steel, it’s not credible to blame the EU for its demise. Similarly it’s nonsensical to lay the blame solely at the feet of Margaret Thatcher. The industry was in the shit before we joined the EU. Employment was plummeting before Thatcher came to power, and continued after she left the scene. For example, employment in the steel industry in 1975 was 300,000. In 1979 is was 160,000, in 1990 90,000. In 1997 it was down to 60,000, in 2010 it was down to 30,000. You can do the sums, but the biggest numeric fall was under Wilson, the biggest percentage fall under see Blair. All in all, a sorry state of affairs. Here’s the source of the above data; link.
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Post by wannabee on Jul 2, 2022 19:29:14 GMT
On steel, it’s not credible to blame the EU for its demise. As I contended above in response to Mr Coke's assertion that it wasSimilarly it’s nonsensical to lay the blame solely at the feet of Margaret Thatcher. I'm certainly not attempting to blame Thatcher solely as I said above the Steel Industry was a basket case at least 10 years earlier and certainly before joining the EEC You do have to take into account when Thatcher appointed Ian MacGregor Chairman of British Steel in 1980 there were 166,000 employees and losses of £1.8B (a phenomenal about of money at the time) when when he left in 1983 employment was reduced to 71,000 (a 57% reduction) and losses of £256M
MacGregor went on to become Chairman of the Coal Board in March 1983 and during the Miners Strike and infamously during The Battle of Orgreave The industry was in the shit before we joined the EU. Completely agree Employment was plummeting before Thatcher came to power, and continued after she left the scene. For example, employment in the steel industry in 1975 was 300,000. In 1979 is was 160,000, in 1990 90,000. In 1997 it was down to 60,000, in 2010 it was down to 30,000. You can do the sums, but the biggest numeric fall was under Wilson, the biggest percentage fall under see Blair. It was Callaghan not Wilson, but not entirely relevant Thatcher had Privatised British Steel in 1998 so not sure what Blair has got to do with itAll in all, a sorry state of affairs. Here’s the source of the above data; link.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 2, 2022 21:03:34 GMT
I have read with interest the above posts on the UK steel industry and can make the the general comment " you're not wrong".When steel was nationalised by Wilson in the late 60s, much of it was in a mess and suffered years of neglect in private hands, although not all of it, some parts were very efficient like Sommers Bros. Finneston drew up a plan to rationalise and modernise under the Heath government which lead to some closures, but more importantly the sharp fall in employment. The incoming Labour government could not tolerate the social implications of the planned closures, Finneston was removed and Lord Beswick produced a new plan which was a halfway house keeping some old parts open like Shelton, Consett, Corby and closing a few like Ebbw Vale (Micheal Foot famously or infamously had to go to his constituency and face the music) Clyde and Irlam. It didn't change much and when Thatcher took power the hatchet came out again under Macgregor after the 1980 steel strike. Effectively Finneston's plan was implemented years later. The steel industry was kicked into shape and profitability, sold off., and left to sink or swim. My beef (as someone who worked in and around the industry for over 4 decades) is that while politicians used the industry as a football, unions and managers fell out, etc. the industry get very little help while other countries were "assisting" their steel industries by blatant subsidies and backdoor methods. The list of examples of loans, tax breaks, grants, cartels, etc. is endless and I could write one of my long posts. One simple example is close to home - Shelton Works. After steelmaking stopped at Shelton it was left with a medium section rolling mill producing middle sized construction steel products. The steel was supplied from Scunthorpe and/or Teesside. Shelton was in direct competition with Irish Steel producing similar products. Irish steel constantly undercut Shelton's prices to win orders. Shelton had to make a profit or shut. Irish steel received loans and grants from the Irish government for 16 years on the trot. Eventually Shelton was shut. This report is biased but relevant: www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40774116.htmlWe were constantly told it was against EU rules to give financial aid to the company, yet it was blatantly obvious support was being given to plants in The Netherlands (notably environment projects), Spain (regional aid after Franco), Germany formed "cooperatives" between companies which were really acting as a cartel to prevent foreign competition. UK steel works were also at a major disadvantage on energy pricing. I could go on and on but feel no one is listening or really cares. Time and again other EU countries bent the EU rules to support their industry as "special cases". When SSI walked away from Teesside, it took Soubrey just two weeks to decide to shut it, although I know as a fact there was at least one company interested to taking over part of the assets. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30599821api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1994/may/09/italian-steel-industrybooks.google.co.uk/books?id=nGBk-wYW13gC&pg=RA5-PA9&lpg=RA5-PA9&dq=austrian+steel+works+Voest+Alpine+receive+government+aid+grants&source=bl&ots=w5fcgIdpFQ&sig=ACfU3U3P1T2ECSkBp_Y7XVExKKGsM5vndA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiE7NG0mdv4AhUDSMAKHalaBHMQ6AF6BAgTEAM#v=onepage&q=austrian%20steel%20works%20Voest%20Alpine%20receive%20government%20aid%20grants&f=falseThe Dutch governments down the years have given 50% grants to their industry for environmental projects and are still working hand in glove. www.tatasteeleurope.com/corporate/news/tata-steel-netherlands-refines-plans-for-decarbonisation-with-governmentI chaired a European committee for 3 years and assure you the UK were being taken for mugs and a soft touch by other EU countries.
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Post by wannabee on Jul 2, 2022 23:33:47 GMT
I have read with interest the above posts on the UK steel industry and can make the the general comment " you're not wrong".When steel was nationalised by Wilson in the late 60s, much of it was in a mess and suffered years of neglect in private hands, although not all of it, some parts were very efficient like Sommers Bros. Finneston drew up a plan to rationalise and modernise under the Heath government which lead to some closures, but more importantly the sharp fall in employment. The incoming Labour government could not tolerate the social implications of the planned closures, Finneston was removed and Lord Beswick produced a new plan which was a halfway house keeping some old parts open like Shelton, Consett, Corby and closing a few like Ebbw Vale (Micheal Foot famously or infamously had to go to his constituency and face the music) Clyde and Irlam. It didn't change much and when Thatcher took power the hatchet came out again under Macgregor after the 1980 steel strike. Effectively Finneston's plan was implemented years later. The steel industry was kicked into shape and profitability, sold off., and left to sink or swim. My beef (as someone who worked in and around the industry for over 4 decades) is that while politicians used the industry as a football, unions and managers fell out, etc. the industry get very little help while other countries were "assisting" their steel industries by blatant subsidies and backdoor methods. The list of examples of loans, tax breaks, grants, cartels, etc. is endless and I could write one of my long posts. One simple example is close to home - Shelton Works. After steelmaking stopped at Shelton it was left with a medium section rolling mill producing middle sized construction steel products. The steel was supplied from Scunthorpe and/or Teesside. Shelton was in direct competition with Irish Steel producing similar products. Irish steel constantly undercut Shelton's prices to win orders. Shelton had to make a profit or shut. Irish steel received loans and grants from the Irish government for 16 years on the trot. Eventually Shelton was shut. This report is biased but relevant: www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40774116.htmlWe were constantly told it was against EU rules to give financial aid to the company, yet it was blatantly obvious support was being given to plants in The Netherlands (notably environment projects), Spain (regional aid after Franco), Germany formed "cooperatives" between companies which were really acting as a cartel to prevent foreign competition. UK steel works were also at a major disadvantage on energy pricing. I could go on and on but feel no one is listening or really cares. Time and again other EU countries bent the EU rules to support their industry as "special cases". When SSI walked away from Teesside, it took Soubrey just two weeks to decide to shut it, although I know as a fact there was at least one company interested to taking over part of the assets. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30599821api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1994/may/09/italian-steel-industrybooks.google.co.uk/books?id=nGBk-wYW13gC&pg=RA5-PA9&lpg=RA5-PA9&dq=austrian+steel+works+Voest+Alpine+receive+government+aid+grants&source=bl&ots=w5fcgIdpFQ&sig=ACfU3U3P1T2ECSkBp_Y7XVExKKGsM5vndA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiE7NG0mdv4AhUDSMAKHalaBHMQ6AF6BAgTEAM#v=onepage&q=austrian%20steel%20works%20Voest%20Alpine%20receive%20government%20aid%20grants&f=falseThe Dutch governments down the years have given 50% grants to their industry for environmental projects and are still working hand in glove. www.tatasteeleurope.com/corporate/news/tata-steel-netherlands-refines-plans-for-decarbonisation-with-governmentI chaired a European committee for 3 years and assure you the UK were being taken for mugs and a soft touch by other EU countries. I am entirely confused as to what your position is now In your most recent post before this and previously you claim that the EU was the Axis of Evil which had singularly and underhandedly been the Architect of bringing the UK Steel Industry to its knees Your above post now says " the above posts on the UK steel industry and can make the the general comment "you're not wrong"
I can only interpret that to mean you now agree with Patrick's and I's debunk that Britain's Steel Industry was a basket case long before UK joined EEC/EU and its demise had nothing to do with joining EEC/EU However you then go on to link a story from 1995 where the Irish Government was intent on supporting a Steel Plant to the tune of IR£52M (10% of its production was in competition with Shelton Plant) but was in conflict with UK's John Major Government which was exercising an EU Veto to allow this to happen. I have no idea of outcome but surely this just proves that State Aid to Companies within EU without unanimity of all EU States was impossible? I link another article from April 2016 I.e. before Brexit Referendum which outlines the hundreds of Millions of supports available to whichever prospective Company is willing to buy the Tata Steel UK Company essentially the former British Steel and outlines the many Millions of supports previously given to Tata Doesn't this completely undermine your argument? www.gov.uk/government/news/government-outlines-details-of-financial-support-for-tata-steel-uk-buyers
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Post by musik on Jul 2, 2022 23:44:35 GMT
Swexit
Possible?
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Post by wannabee on Jul 3, 2022 0:52:32 GMT
Sweden ss a free Democratic Country anything is possible Pre Brexit a small majority 36%/32% were in favour of Swexit if UK Brexited By 2019 even the Anti Immigration Party Swedish Democrats had reversed their opinion in favour of changing EU from within ala Cameron Currently in light of Ukraine War the tide has shifted with 64% in EU favour 12% against in line with 63% in favour of NATO What do you think? On a separate issue the UKs World Leading roll out of the German developed Pfzer/Biontech Vaccine was first administered to a 90 year old Lady in Coventry on 8th December 2019 19 Days later on 27th December that Vaccine was being rolled out in Europe including Sweden According to some people this World Leading achievement wouldn't have been possible within the EU if UK were still within EU although UK was still in EU Transition, go figure. Admirably the British developed Astra-Zeneca Vaccine was approved on 4th January 2020 My question is, Sweden pursued generally a very Laissez-faire attitude towards Covid with limited restrictions In hindsight this policy appears to have led to excess deaths How is this policy now being appraised in Sweden?
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 3, 2022 6:49:02 GMT
I have read with interest the above posts on the UK steel industry and can make the the general comment " you're not wrong".When steel was nationalised by Wilson in the late 60s, much of it was in a mess and suffered years of neglect in private hands, although not all of it, some parts were very efficient like Sommers Bros. Finneston drew up a plan to rationalise and modernise under the Heath government which lead to some closures, but more importantly the sharp fall in employment. The incoming Labour government could not tolerate the social implications of the planned closures, Finneston was removed and Lord Beswick produced a new plan which was a halfway house keeping some old parts open like Shelton, Consett, Corby and closing a few like Ebbw Vale (Micheal Foot famously or infamously had to go to his constituency and face the music) Clyde and Irlam. It didn't change much and when Thatcher took power the hatchet came out again under Macgregor after the 1980 steel strike. Effectively Finneston's plan was implemented years later. The steel industry was kicked into shape and profitability, sold off., and left to sink or swim. My beef (as someone who worked in and around the industry for over 4 decades) is that while politicians used the industry as a football, unions and managers fell out, etc. the industry get very little help while other countries were "assisting" their steel industries by blatant subsidies and backdoor methods. The list of examples of loans, tax breaks, grants, cartels, etc. is endless and I could write one of my long posts. One simple example is close to home - Shelton Works. After steelmaking stopped at Shelton it was left with a medium section rolling mill producing middle sized construction steel products. The steel was supplied from Scunthorpe and/or Teesside. Shelton was in direct competition with Irish Steel producing similar products. Irish steel constantly undercut Shelton's prices to win orders. Shelton had to make a profit or shut. Irish steel received loans and grants from the Irish government for 16 years on the trot. Eventually Shelton was shut. This report is biased but relevant: www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40774116.htmlWe were constantly told it was against EU rules to give financial aid to the company, yet it was blatantly obvious support was being given to plants in The Netherlands (notably environment projects), Spain (regional aid after Franco), Germany formed "cooperatives" between companies which were really acting as a cartel to prevent foreign competition. UK steel works were also at a major disadvantage on energy pricing. I could go on and on but feel no one is listening or really cares. Time and again other EU countries bent the EU rules to support their industry as "special cases". When SSI walked away from Teesside, it took Soubrey just two weeks to decide to shut it, although I know as a fact there was at least one company interested to taking over part of the assets. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30599821api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1994/may/09/italian-steel-industrybooks.google.co.uk/books?id=nGBk-wYW13gC&pg=RA5-PA9&lpg=RA5-PA9&dq=austrian+steel+works+Voest+Alpine+receive+government+aid+grants&source=bl&ots=w5fcgIdpFQ&sig=ACfU3U3P1T2ECSkBp_Y7XVExKKGsM5vndA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiE7NG0mdv4AhUDSMAKHalaBHMQ6AF6BAgTEAM#v=onepage&q=austrian%20steel%20works%20Voest%20Alpine%20receive%20government%20aid%20grants&f=falseThe Dutch governments down the years have given 50% grants to their industry for environmental projects and are still working hand in glove. www.tatasteeleurope.com/corporate/news/tata-steel-netherlands-refines-plans-for-decarbonisation-with-governmentI chaired a European committee for 3 years and assure you the UK were being taken for mugs and a soft touch by other EU countries. I am entirely confused as to what your position is now In your most recent post before this and previously you claim that the EU was the Axis of Evil which had singularly and underhandedly been the Architect of bringing the UK Steel Industry to its knees Your above post now says " the above posts on the UK steel industry and can make the the general comment "you're not wrong"
I can only interpret that to mean you now agree with Patrick's and I's debunk that Britain's Steel Industry was a basket case long before UK joined EEC/EU and its demise had nothing to do with joining EEC/EU However you then go on to link a story from 1995 where the Irish Government was intent on supporting a Steel Plant to the tune of IR£52M (10% of its production was in competition with Shelton Plant) but was in conflict with UK's John Major Government which was exercising an EU Veto to allow this to happen. I have no idea of outcome but surely this just proves that State Aid to Companies within EU without unanimity of all EU States was impossible? I link another article from April 2016 I.e. before Brexit Referendum which outlines the hundreds of Millions of supports available to whichever prospective Company is willing to buy the Tata Steel UK Company essentially the former British Steel and outlines the many Millions of supports previously given to Tata Doesn't this completely undermine your argument? www.gov.uk/government/news/government-outlines-details-of-financial-support-for-tata-steel-uk-buyersFrom my experience the UK looked (and generally did) apply EU state aid rules religiously. This was in part because it was a handy “reason” to avoid throwing loads of money at vocal industries the various UK Governments didn’t want to do give money to. And partly because we were good responsible citizens of the EU. This was not an approach other countries took. Generally across Europe, Governments frequently ignored state aid rules when it suited them and left it to the EU commission to act at some point in the future on their transgressions. Steel industries being a case in point. In theory, EU state aid rules precluded us from supporting the industry. But we never really wanted to support them in any case, because if we had we’d have ignored the rules like everyone else was doing. I’m not sure this state of affairs shines a good light on anyone.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 3, 2022 7:02:41 GMT
I am entirely confused as to what your position is now In your most recent post before this and previously you claim that the EU was the Axis of Evil which had singularly and underhandedly been the Architect of bringing the UK Steel Industry to its knees Your above post now says " the above posts on the UK steel industry and can make the the general comment "you're not wrong"
I can only interpret that to mean you now agree with Patrick's and I's debunk that Britain's Steel Industry was a basket case long before UK joined EEC/EU and its demise had nothing to do with joining EEC/EU However you then go on to link a story from 1995 where the Irish Government was intent on supporting a Steel Plant to the tune of IR£52M (10% of its production was in competition with Shelton Plant) but was in conflict with UK's John Major Government which was exercising an EU Veto to allow this to happen. I have no idea of outcome but surely this just proves that State Aid to Companies within EU without unanimity of all EU States was impossible? I link another article from April 2016 I.e. before Brexit Referendum which outlines the hundreds of Millions of supports available to whichever prospective Company is willing to buy the Tata Steel UK Company essentially the former British Steel and outlines the many Millions of supports previously given to Tata Doesn't this completely undermine your argument? www.gov.uk/government/news/government-outlines-details-of-financial-support-for-tata-steel-uk-buyersFrom my experience the UK looked (and generally did) apply EU state aid rules religiously. This was in part because it was a handy “reason” to avoid throwing loads of money at vocal industries the various UK Governments didn’t want to do give money to. And partly because we were good responsible citizens of the EU. This was not an approach other countries took. Generally across Europe, Governments frequently ignored state aid rules when it suited them and left it to the EU commission to act at some point in the future on their transgressions. Steel industries being a case in point. In theory, EU state aid rules precluded us from supporting the industry. But we never really wanted to support them in any case, because if we had we’d have ignored the rules like everyone else was doing. I’m not sure this state of affairs shines a good light on anyone. And conforming to the EU's directives and regulations to it has produced a ( more than) generation of MPs who either do not fully understand their role in terms of representation, and leadership or have not had the opportunity to develop experience in this area and , even worse, are content to do so. The decision making and policies originated by others, in places other than the UK Parliament.....it was our job just to conform
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Post by wannabee on Jul 3, 2022 8:47:49 GMT
From my experience the UK looked (and generally did) apply EU state aid rules religiously. This was in part because it was a handy “reason” to avoid throwing loads of money at vocal industries the various UK Governments didn’t want to do give money to. And partly because we were good responsible citizens of the EU. This was not an approach other countries took. Generally across Europe, Governments frequently ignored state aid rules when it suited them and left it to the EU commission to act at some point in the future on their transgressions. Steel industries being a case in point. In theory, EU state aid rules precluded us from supporting the industry. But we never really wanted to support them in any case, because if we had we’d have ignored the rules like everyone else was doing. I’m not sure this state of affairs shines a good light on anyone. I have no desire to continue the discussion longer than necessary my original point to Mr Coke was that EEC/EU was not the cause of UK Steel demise which I think is now generally accepted With regard to State Aid it seems to be a Grey area. Mr Coke linked an article where UK was exercising a Veto to not allow Irish Government give IR52M in State Aid to its Steel Industry I linked an article in fact a UK Government Prospectus seeking a buyer for Tata Steel UK promising "hundreds of millions" of Aid and confirming it had done so previously I think your assertion that ways could be found for Governments to give State Aid if it wished is the closest to the truth I.e. it was sometimes a convenient excuse not to.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Jul 3, 2022 10:02:48 GMT
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 3, 2022 10:39:53 GMT
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Post by wannabee on Jul 3, 2022 15:22:28 GMT
Of course your correct that travel problems are being experienced all all Europe indeed the World It doesn't alter the fact that 30% of those employed in UK Airline Industry pre pandemic are now not eligible for re-employment due to Brexit The problem and the solution is not novel and is basic economics of Supply and Demand The Supply side is being hampered by capacity Besides the 30% no longer eligible for re-employment a significant number of the remainder who were furloughed no longer find the Industry attractive take Baggage Handlers as an example they are paid in and around minimum wage. During furlough they found they could earn a similar if not better wage in say Amazon packing computers and such into boxes versus lugging 20KG baggage They also didn't necessarily have unsocial hours with shifts starting at 4 a.m. or finishing at midnight If Airport Operators want an adequate number of staff they will need to have pay and conditions to attract versus alternative jobs Besides inevitable rises in labour costs energy cost have rocketed Airlines generally forward buy but at some point Air Fares must rise Some people may argue that inflation or perhaps above wage increases will only fuel Inflation In general they do not apply the same logic to Dividends, Rental Incomes, Bank Interest Rates etc On the Demand side at present Demand for Holiday flights are about 70%/80% of pre-pandemic rates AT CURRENT PRICES I have no doubt that Airfares will rise substantially whether this cools demand remains to be seen I can only see misery for holiday travellers for the remainder of the summer up to schools returning How the Airlines reposition over the Winter period in terms of Price and Capacity may well decide whether this is a post Covid Blip or a permanent fixture
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 3, 2022 18:41:18 GMT
Not inadvertently really Wannabee. I have always taken a close interest Irish matters, just not so much the detail of recent events, so I thank you and Muggleton for that. My grandad, Kelly, was a passionate Irish man, so I’m told, he’d died before I was born. When I was in the Labour Party I was strongly in favour of Irish unity. I think I am now going full circle, back to that position- not that I think I have a right to a view really, it is a question for the Irish. I think being British at the time of the Troubles effects a person’s thinking, but the nearest connection I had was a friend from Newry, who used get up in the morning to find an armed soldier/ police officer , I can’t remember which, right outside her front door, before she had to walk to school. At first very disconcerting , but she then became more suspicious and scared when a military man wasn’t there. I’ve seen the video for which you have provided a link, it is one part of the Robert Kee BBC Series, I think I will give it another watch. youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-NlJbmY3woh0SDUIy2ION2-DWyoz8oxYOne of my students is doing his Masters along the lines of.... Remembering and forgetting in Ireland ‘Ideas, images, and objects in the construction of the national identity of Ireland in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries’ So far he has investigated, Charles Parnell, Patrick Pearse, Michael Collins, George Petrie, Book of Kells,Setanta,the Gaelic League, the Black and Tans,.....so I’m finding it interesting to revisit some of those things. I’d think the capital of a United Ireland would be Dublin, but again it would be decided by the new regime. I think a United Ireland would, by and large, give a tremendous boost to “ Ireland “ on many different levels. I do think people will largely vote on matters of Identity, sovereignty, freedom and democracy, geography and history.... not trade and the difficulties of making the transition. I do think things could change fairly quickly, historically speaking. Thanks for keeping me informed Sounds like a fascinating piece of work. Make sure he has some women in there, as we were very good at forgetting them. The role of women in 1916 and afterwards is only very recently being examined and understood. The role of the church(es) would be interesting too, as they had such an influence, and were in the front line of constructing the national myth of a pious, Catholic Ireland with De Valera's famous comely maidens dancing at the crossroads. To sustain this myth they ostracised anyone who didn't fit the narrative, and exported undesirables and (especially) their offspring on the boat to Britain. Right up to the referenda on divorce, contraception and equal marriage the church was fighting the battle for the Ireland they wanted. Thank fuck they lost those battles. Robert Kee's stuff is obv excellent, but if your student, or anyone, wants an enjoyable half hour synopsis of Irish life in any given year since 1970, set to the soundtrack of the time, the RTE's Reeling in the Years (available on YouTube) is tremendous. Similarly good, though necessarily grimmer is Pop Goes Northern Ireland on the iPlayer. It seems to me that Varadker is playing this absolutely right. Only press for the referendum when he knows( or really believes) that he will undoubtedly win it. In the meantime exploit the difficulties of the stakeholders involved in the issue in hand. I think we could see a United Ireland within ten years.....who knows? www.irishpost.com/news/tanaiste-leo-varadker-says-united-ireland-referendum-not-appropriate-at-this-time-236704
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 3, 2022 19:40:46 GMT
Of course your correct that travel problems are being experienced all all Europe indeed the World It doesn't alter the fact that 30% of those employed in UK Airline Industry pre pandemic are now not eligible for re-employment due to Brexit The problem and the solution is not novel and is basic economics of Supply and Demand The Supply side is being hampered by capacity Besides the 30% no longer eligible for re-employment a significant number of the remainder who were furloughed no longer find the Industry attractive take Baggage Handlers as an example they are paid in and around minimum wage. During furlough they found they could earn a similar if not better wage in say Amazon packing computers and such into boxes versus lugging 20KG baggage They also didn't necessarily have unsocial hours with shifts starting at 4 a.m. or finishing at midnight If Airport Operators want an adequate number of staff they will need to have pay and conditions to attract versus alternative jobs Besides inevitable rises in labour costs energy cost have rocketed Airlines generally forward buy but at some point Air Fares must rise Some people may argue that inflation or perhaps above wage increases will only fuel Inflation In general they do not apply the same logic to Dividends, Rental Incomes, Bank Interest Rates etc On the Demand side at present Demand for Holiday flights are about 70%/80% of pre-pandemic rates AT CURRENT PRICES I have no doubt that Airfares will rise substantially whether this cools demand remains to be seen I can only see misery for holiday travellers for the remainder of the summer up to schools returning How the Airlines reposition over the Winter period in terms of Price and Capacity may well decide whether this is a post Covid Blip or a permanent fixture I suspect the idea might be more appealing than the actuality. This article is a year or so old, but I suspect it is still valid… Poll shows Irish support unification but don’t want to pay for itA united Ireland will cost a bunch, and bring with it some challenges. Personally, I’d say do it sooner rather than later. But don’t look at me to fund the thing.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 3, 2022 22:52:31 GMT
Of course your correct that travel problems are being experienced all all Europe indeed the World It doesn't alter the fact that 30% of those employed in UK Airline Industry pre pandemic are now not eligible for re-employment due to Brexit The problem and the solution is not novel and is basic economics of Supply and Demand The Supply side is being hampered by capacity Besides the 30% no longer eligible for re-employment a significant number of the remainder who were furloughed no longer find the Industry attractive take Baggage Handlers as an example they are paid in and around minimum wage. During furlough they found they could earn a similar if not better wage in say Amazon packing computers and such into boxes versus lugging 20KG baggage They also didn't necessarily have unsocial hours with shifts starting at 4 a.m. or finishing at midnight If Airport Operators want an adequate number of staff they will need to have pay and conditions to attract versus alternative jobs Besides inevitable rises in labour costs energy cost have rocketed Airlines generally forward buy but at some point Air Fares must rise Some people may argue that inflation or perhaps above wage increases will only fuel Inflation In general they do not apply the same logic to Dividends, Rental Incomes, Bank Interest Rates etc On the Demand side at present Demand for Holiday flights are about 70%/80% of pre-pandemic rates AT CURRENT PRICES I have no doubt that Airfares will rise substantially whether this cools demand remains to be seen I can only see misery for holiday travellers for the remainder of the summer up to schools returning How the Airlines reposition over the Winter period in terms of Price and Capacity may well decide whether this is a post Covid Blip or a permanent fixture The topic here is the travel industry, but the issue of shortage of labour is a lot wider. We have seen it with HGV drivers, crop pickers, slaughter house workers, and there is a huge shortage of health and welfare workers. The issue is not a UK issue but common throughout the world, neither is it going to go away very quickly: www.randstad.com/workforce-insights/talent-acquisition/why-there-a-global-labor-shortage/totalent.eu/germany-set-for-labour-shortage-of-7-million-by-2050-amid-european-ageing-crisis/Even if the UK was in some way to "open its doors" the European workers, I think it would be naïve to expect that our problems would be over. The vast majority of UK immigration has in the past been from non EU countries anyway and will continue to be so. As for cheap labour, I believe that ship has sailed. The lowest paid are getting some of the largest pay rises at the moment. I don't see the present labour shortage problems as a post Covid Blip or a permanent fixture, I think we are seeing a sea change in the labour market. So what is the solution? The answer is " The same as it has always been" we will innovate and find new ways of solving our problems. We have seen a revolution in many activities in recent years with new technologies such as printing, communications, and the adoption of robotics in manufacturing. I see the above industries going through major change, for example in travel: www.internationalairportreview.com/news/105683/new-automated-baggage-handling-system-miami-airport/www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5265120/global-airport-baggage-handling-market-2021?utm_source=CI&utm_medium=PressRelease&utm_code=2q288g&utm_campaign=1505573+-+Global+Airport+Baggage+Handling+Market+Report+2020-2025%3a+Provision+of+End-to-End+Solutions+to+Present+New+Growth+Opportunities&utm_exec=chdo54prdI fully expect self check-ins in the future where a traveller doesn't have any human contact unless they have a problem or a special need, just like shopping and banking. Farming is going through a revolution: www.plugandplaytechcenter.com/resources/how-automation-transforming-farming-industry/#:~:text=Harvest%20Automation,and%20how%20they%20are%20grown I saw one article recently saying vertical farms "will end imported soft fruit and herbs in 10 years" See video below. People are concerned about imported meat from Australia. How can the Aussies supply and undercut from the other side of the world? The answer is lower production costs. Australia has always been short of labour and crying out for people, so they have to manage with less labour and have invested in higher productivity processes, in a similar way to the Dutch. See video below. In the UK for the last 20 years we have copped out and relied on cheap labour from Europe which has held down wages. I am not worried about Australian and New Zealand food putting UK farmers out of business. Those countries will displace our current massive imports from countries like Ireland. British quality food products like Aberdeen Angus and Welsh Lamb will always sell well. Plus I expect the next generation will eat a lot less red meat. www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mounting-concern-at-impact-of-uk-australia-deal-on-irish-beef-exports-1.4571686There may be some misery and difficulties in the short term but they will be overcome.
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Post by wannabee on Jul 3, 2022 23:56:30 GMT
Of course your correct that travel problems are being experienced all all Europe indeed the World It doesn't alter the fact that 30% of those employed in UK Airline Industry pre pandemic are now not eligible for re-employment due to Brexit The problem and the solution is not novel and is basic economics of Supply and Demand The Supply side is being hampered by capacity Besides the 30% no longer eligible for re-employment a significant number of the remainder who were furloughed no longer find the Industry attractive take Baggage Handlers as an example they are paid in and around minimum wage. During furlough they found they could earn a similar if not better wage in say Amazon packing computers and such into boxes versus lugging 20KG baggage They also didn't necessarily have unsocial hours with shifts starting at 4 a.m. or finishing at midnight If Airport Operators want an adequate number of staff they will need to have pay and conditions to attract versus alternative jobs Besides inevitable rises in labour costs energy cost have rocketed Airlines generally forward buy but at some point Air Fares must rise Some people may argue that inflation or perhaps above wage increases will only fuel Inflation In general they do not apply the same logic to Dividends, Rental Incomes, Bank Interest Rates etc On the Demand side at present Demand for Holiday flights are about 70%/80% of pre-pandemic rates AT CURRENT PRICES I have no doubt that Airfares will rise substantially whether this cools demand remains to be seen I can only see misery for holiday travellers for the remainder of the summer up to schools returning How the Airlines reposition over the Winter period in terms of Price and Capacity may well decide whether this is a post Covid Blip or a permanent fixture I suspect the idea might be more appealing than the actuality. This article is a year or so old, but I suspect it is still valid… Poll shows Irish support unification but don’t want to pay for itA united Ireland will cost a bunch, and bring with it some challenges. Personally, I’d say do it sooner rather than later. But don’t look at me to fund the thing. The UK Subvention to NI is somewhat distorted and mythical In 2019 the Subvention for Cumbria and Greater Manchester was £20.2B and West Midlands £15B In 2019 for NI it amounted to £9.4B of which of this £3.4B related to pension payments to people who had contributed via NI Contributions which would continue unless UK walked away from this obligation. A further £2.4B relates to NI contribution to share of UK National Debt It would be difficult if not impossible for UK to calculate a continuance of the payment as its largely an accounting exercise Thirdly £1.1B relates to UKs Defence spending This brings you to a net figure of £2.5B Since 2013 Ireland has been a net contributer to EU Budget in 2018 this amounted to 0.7B This is the second highest per Capita at €148 per person within EU This would almost certainly be reversed with absorption of NI into a United Ireland These figures are Hardy surprising when you consider Ireland has the 4th Highest Per Capita GDP in the World 125% higher than UK which is 27th One of the bigger challenges of a United Ireland would be raising the Standard of Living and Social Benefits in Northern-ireland to the level enjoyed in ROI Since Brexit exports from NI to ROI have increased 65% and imports from ROI to NI have increased 54% A truly All Ireland Economy would have an even bigger financial gain Finally you have the US Card a United Ireland Economy would benefit from substantial FDI Investment from US
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Post by wannabee on Jul 4, 2022 0:55:49 GMT
Of course your correct that travel problems are being experienced all all Europe indeed the World It doesn't alter the fact that 30% of those employed in UK Airline Industry pre pandemic are now not eligible for re-employment due to Brexit The problem and the solution is not novel and is basic economics of Supply and Demand The Supply side is being hampered by capacity Besides the 30% no longer eligible for re-employment a significant number of the remainder who were furloughed no longer find the Industry attractive take Baggage Handlers as an example they are paid in and around minimum wage. During furlough they found they could earn a similar if not better wage in say Amazon packing computers and such into boxes versus lugging 20KG baggage They also didn't necessarily have unsocial hours with shifts starting at 4 a.m. or finishing at midnight If Airport Operators want an adequate number of staff they will need to have pay and conditions to attract versus alternative jobs Besides inevitable rises in labour costs energy cost have rocketed Airlines generally forward buy but at some point Air Fares must rise Some people may argue that inflation or perhaps above wage increases will only fuel Inflation In general they do not apply the same logic to Dividends, Rental Incomes, Bank Interest Rates etc On the Demand side at present Demand for Holiday flights are about 70%/80% of pre-pandemic rates AT CURRENT PRICES I have no doubt that Airfares will rise substantially whether this cools demand remains to be seen I can only see misery for holiday travellers for the remainder of the summer up to schools returning How the Airlines reposition over the Winter period in terms of Price and Capacity may well decide whether this is a post Covid Blip or a permanent fixture The topic here is the travel industry, but the issue of shortage of labour is a lot wider. We have seen it with HGV drivers, crop pickers, slaughter house workers, and there is a huge shortage of health and welfare workers. The issue is not a UK issue but common throughout the world, neither is it going to go away very quickly: www.randstad.com/workforce-insights/talent-acquisition/why-there-a-global-labor-shortage/totalent.eu/germany-set-for-labour-shortage-of-7-million-by-2050-amid-european-ageing-crisis/Even if the UK was in some way to "open its doors" the European workers, I think it would be naïve to expect that our problems would be over. The vast majority of UK immigration has in the past been from non EU countries anyway and will continue to be so. As for cheap labour, I believe that ship has sailed. The lowest paid are getting some of the largest pay rises at the moment. I don't see the present labour shortage problems as a post Covid Blip or a permanent fixture, I think we are seeing a sea change in the labour market. So what is the solution? The answer is " The same as it has always been" we will innovate and find new ways of solving our problems. We have seen a revolution in many activities in recent years with new technologies such as printing, communications, and the adoption of robotics in manufacturing. I see the above industries going through major change, for example in travel: www.internationalairportreview.com/news/105683/new-automated-baggage-handling-system-miami-airport/www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5265120/global-airport-baggage-handling-market-2021?utm_source=CI&utm_medium=PressRelease&utm_code=2q288g&utm_campaign=1505573+-+Global+Airport+Baggage+Handling+Market+Report+2020-2025%3a+Provision+of+End-to-End+Solutions+to+Present+New+Growth+Opportunities&utm_exec=chdo54prdI fully expect self check-ins in the future where a traveller doesn't have any human contact unless they have a problem or a special need, just like shopping and banking. Farming is going through a revolution: www.plugandplaytechcenter.com/resources/how-automation-transforming-farming-industry/#:~:text=Harvest%20Automation,and%20how%20they%20are%20grown I saw one article recently saying vertical farms "will end imported soft fruit and herbs in 10 years" See video below. People are concerned about imported meat from Australia. How can the Aussies supply and undercut from the other side of the world? The answer is lower production costs. Australia has always been short of labour and crying out for people, so they have to manage with less labour and have invested in higher productivity processes, in a similar way to the Dutch. See video below. In the UK for the last 20 years we have copped out and relied on cheap labour from Europe which has held down wages. I am not worried about Australian and New Zealand food putting UK farmers out of business. Those countries will displace our current massive imports from countries like Ireland. British quality food products like Aberdeen Angus and Welsh Lamb will always sell well. Plus I expect the next generation will eat a lot less red meat. www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/mounting-concern-at-impact-of-uk-australia-deal-on-irish-beef-exports-1.4571686There may be some misery and difficulties in the short term but they will be overcome. You may be surprised to hear that I agree with almost everything you have said Germany without doubt is in the greatest risk underpopulation masked by Merkels 2M influx From a very low base Luxembourg, Malta and Ireland are projected to be the least effected in Europe We have only to look at Japan for a stagnant but rich economy where by 2030 Projections are 33% will be over 65 and 20% over 75 I don't entirely agree with you on peoples eating habits Of course their will be a swing away from red meat as such but there will always be a demand for high quality food produce ... for those that can afford it Australian imports and the environment are another ball of wax too complex to debate now but I believe the general population will receive less nutritious food, adequate for sustenance but not for longevity or quality of health I too agree that new innovation not yet dreamed or conceived will be the solution as it will be for Climate change as individual countries are too self centred to make the dramatic changes needed as citizens will simply not tolerate the necessary changes in lifestyle That is why it's a tragedy that UK will not be part of the EU €95B Horizon Project which has already seen a trickle of UK Brain Drain At some point George Freeman will persuade the Treasury to release some funding for his Plan B alternative but it will be a very poor substitute
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 4, 2022 2:35:04 GMT
I suspect the idea might be more appealing than the actuality. This article is a year or so old, but I suspect it is still valid… Poll shows Irish support unification but don’t want to pay for itA united Ireland will cost a bunch, and bring with it some challenges. Personally, I’d say do it sooner rather than later. But don’t look at me to fund the thing. The UK Subvention to NI is somewhat distorted and mythical In 2019 the Subvention for Cumbria and Greater Manchester was £20.2B and West Midlands £15B In 2019 for NI it amounted to £9.4B of which of this £3.4B related to pension payments to people who had contributed via NI Contributions which would continue unless UK walked away from this obligation. A further £2.4B relates to NI contribution to share of UK National Debt It would be difficult if not impossible for UK to calculate a continuance of the payment as its largely an accounting exercise Thirdly £1.1B relates to UKs Defence spending This brings you to a net figure of £2.5B Since 2013 Ireland has been a net contributer to EU Budget in 2018 this amounted to 0.7B This is the second highest per Capita at €148 per person within EU This would almost certainly be reversed with absorption of NI into a United Ireland These figures are Hardy surprising when you consider Ireland has the 4th Highest Per Capita GDP in the World 125% higher than UK which is 27th One of the bigger challenges of a United Ireland would be raising the Standard of Living and Social Benefits in Northern-ireland to the level enjoyed in ROI Since Brexit exports from NI to ROI have increased 65% and imports from ROI to NI have increased 54% A truly All Ireland Economy would have an even bigger financial gain Finally you have the US Card a United Ireland Economy would benefit from substantial FDI Investment from US Blimey, you don't half post some tosh at times. On spending of public money (subvention), the critical factor isn't total cost but cost per head, which as you'll see is very, very high in Northern Ireland. This is, I expect, what is causing the palpitations in the survey referenced ( link). On pensions I guess you missed the recent comical debate about pension liabilities sparked by the Lard of the Isles off the cuff foot in mouth moment. Read more about it here; Blackford says independent Scotland will be liable for pensions. Bottom line there is no ongoing obligations for pensions which are paid from the current years tax receipts. There is no "pensions pot" for public pensions - the mistake Blackford made. On share of National Debt, once again we can look to Scotland where a fairly solid ground has been established on liabilities that is causing major concerns; UK debt share a key concern for Scottish independence. The same would apply to NI. Defence spending I grant you is one area where a comparison with Scotland isn't valid! Scotland is a huge beneficiary of defence spending most critically in supporting ship building on the Clyde as well as the nuclear submarine base in Faslane and the huge naval dockyards in Rosyth. Norther Ireland would gain from a reduction in ongoing defence spending on that basis. Although, Ireland's long standing miserable, and morally bankrupt position on defence might be up for review at some point so their defence spending might increase. Ireland's GDP is hugely distorted by the presence of the American multinationals it has attracted over the years due to its very low corporation tax and other tricks. It's also a shoogly peg for Ireland as the uS and the EU ae not happy with the situation. Anyway, I'm sure these realities are why folks in the republic are concerned about the cost of unification. But, I say you head over there and persuade them they are wrong. That it's all sunshine and roses (or shamrocks). Good luck to you.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 4, 2022 9:55:06 GMT
Starmer's first test for the coveted Red Wall on Brexit.......
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 4, 2022 10:26:56 GMT
Starmer's first test for the coveted Red Wall on Brexit....... Here's what he will say... Labour won't restore freedom of movement Labour (consequently) won't look to join the Single Market Labour will fix the Northern Ireland border problem Labour will do everything better than the Tories Labour will sort out the travails of England's top order batting The top two involve maintaining the current position, the others imply change but will not explain how change will be achieved other than everything will be better. Which, in fairness, was Tony Blair's mantra when up against John Major. It was the anthem of the 97 GE after all. If it worked for Tony, I'm sure Keir is thinking, it could work for me. He could well be right; after all, "I'm not Boris, I'm not Jeremy and I've had a Damascene conversion on Brexit" could well be enough. It will have to be, because he doesn't look like he has much else to offer.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 4, 2022 11:07:20 GMT
Starmer's first test for the coveted Red Wall on Brexit....... Here's what he will say... Labour won't restore freedom of movement Labour (consequently) won't look to join the Single Market Labour will fix the Northern Ireland border problem Labour will do everything better than the Tories Labour will sort out the travails of England's top order batting The top two involve maintaining the current position, the others imply change but will not explain how change will be achieved other than everything will be better. Which, in fairness, was Tony Blair's mantra when up against John Major. It was the anthem of the 97 GE after all. If it worked for Tony, I'm sure Keir is thinking, it could work for me. He could well be right; after all, "I'm not Boris, I'm not Jeremy and I've had a Damascene conversion on Brexit" could well be enough. It will have to be, because he doesn't look like he has much else to offer. Well at least he's saying the word 'Brexit' now rather than treating it like Voldemort. Baby steps.
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jul 4, 2022 11:23:26 GMT
Starmer's first test for the coveted Red Wall on Brexit....... Here's what he will say... Labour won't restore freedom of movement Labour (consequently) won't look to join the Single Market Labour will fix the Northern Ireland border problem Labour will do everything better than the Tories Labour will sort out the travails of England's top order batting The top two involve maintaining the current position, the others imply change but will not explain how change will be achieved other than everything will be better. Which, in fairness, was Tony Blair's mantra when up against John Major. It was the anthem of the 97 GE after all. If it worked for Tony, I'm sure Keir is thinking, it could work for me. He could well be right; after all, "I'm not Boris, I'm not Jeremy and I've had a Damascene conversion on Brexit" could well be enough. It will have to be, because he doesn't look like he has much else to offer. I don't think even Starmer would claim they can sort out England's top order. He doesn't have to go back as far as Blair to see how just saying everything else would be better without explaining how. The current government promised the earth (eg levelling up/ 40 new hospitals etc) and clearly never had little more than a few straws to grasp at in terms of delivering.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 4, 2022 11:24:58 GMT
Hmmm, I thought we were all supposed to be looking forward, pulling together to make Brexit work for everyone, embracing the opportunities Brexit offers etc Funny how that's not the case when it's said by someone you don't generally support
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 4, 2022 11:39:45 GMT
Hmmm, I thought we were all supposed to be looking forward, pulling together to make Brexit work for everyone, embracing the opportunities Brexit offers etc Funny how that's not the case when it's said by someone you don't generally support I'm not sure it ever will - because of the nature of the division. Most Remainers I know are pragmatists. Remain wasn't a vote for the EU as such as there is a general acceptance that it is flawed and could be better even amongst those who wished to stay a part. Remain was a view that leaving would be immensly disruptive, we did not have the wherewithall to manage the change, and overall we would be worse off so just not worth it. Most Leavers I know - if not out and out ideologists - value leaving in less pragmatic and tangible terms such as sovereignty, control, etc The debate is therefore a mismatch because each side of the division value different things and try to pursuade each other ofteen using factors that the other side of the debate don't really care about. Only when you've had a couple or more generations who've known no different will it begin to settle down. Six years on from the vote it's still a division and a matter of electoral importance -so I see no reason why it won't run for another 20
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 4, 2022 11:40:47 GMT
Hmmm, I thought we were all supposed to be looking forward, pulling together to make Brexit work for everyone, embracing the opportunities Brexit offers etc Funny how that's not the case when it's said by someone you don't generally support I'm not sure anyone has said otherwise? I know he doesn't like to talk about being the son of a simple toolmaker but you're not his dad are you by any chance?
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 4, 2022 11:41:39 GMT
Hmmm, I thought we were all supposed to be looking forward, pulling together to make Brexit work for everyone, embracing the opportunities Brexit offers etc Funny how that's not the case when it's said by someone you don't generally support I'm not sure it ever will - because of the nature of the division. Most Remainers I know are pragmatists. Remain wasn't a vote for the EU as such as there is a general acceptance that it is flawed and could be better even amongst those who wished to stay a part. Remain was a view that leaving would be immensly disruptive, we did not have the wherewithall to manage the change, and overall we would be worse off so just not worth it. Most Leavers I know - if not out and out ideologists - value leaving in less pragmatic and tangible terms such as sovereignty, control, etc The debate is therefore a mismatch because each side of the division value different things and try to pursuade each other ofteen using factors that the other side of the debate don't really care about. Only when you've had a couple or more generations who've known no different will it begin to settle down. Six years on from the vote it's still a division and a matter of electoral importance -so I see no reason why it won't run for another 20Farage will be licking his lips, that was always the plan to keep him in work.........
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