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Post by oggyoggy on Jun 28, 2022 19:25:26 GMT
My gripe is with this government, and with Brexit which has led to this government. But Brexit has happened and we have left the EU. So we have to make the best of it which means remainers accepting what I have just said in my previous sentence, and leave voters accepting that the promises they were made by the architects of brexit were lies amd will not happen, and we now need to make the best of it. Breaking the treaty we proposed and signed is not the way to do that. I will end on something we seem to agree on. To make the best of brexit we need a new government! I find the accept/make the best of Brexit line a bit glib tbh. Just about everyone tries to make the best of bad situations not of their making. People and communities did it throughout Thatcherism, without feeling they necessarily had to change their view on how damaging it was. Agree on all other fronts though. Get this shower gone. To make the best of Brexit we should join the EEA until we have a real idea of where we want to go. As the leave ideals sold in the referendum were lies and never possible, this government has led us up shit creek without a paddle and don’t have a clue, and there is no viable option. So I think we join the EEA and recover economically and see where we are in a few years. That would fully respect the referendum result but minimise the negative impacts whilst giving us a chance to see if there is some positives to look for with a more distanced relationship with the EU at some point in the future.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 28, 2022 19:25:44 GMT
I Don't think those are decisive or clear cut No less decisive and clear cut than your options (other than rejoining the EU ) Not at all.
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Post by oggyoggy on Jun 28, 2022 19:27:28 GMT
No less decisive and clear cut than your options (other than rejoining the EU ) Not at all. Joining the EEA is far more decisive than creating a hard border in Ireland which would require EU approval and break the GFA. Never going to happen.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 28, 2022 19:35:24 GMT
Joining the EEA is far more decisive than creating a hard border in Ireland which would require EU approval and break the GFA. Never going to happen. You can't predict the future, A United Ireland is far more decisive. We could be at war with Russia in August and a new Pandemic could start in Wales. Things could have been better planned for .....but you have to throw in the mix that every major party, institution and influential party was opposed to Brexit ,didn't want or intend to make it work, tried to reverse it, and we had to be dragged out. And they were the ones with the responsibility to implement it! It has only now being accepted , reluctantly by some, but obviously some will never accept it..
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Post by oggyoggy on Jun 28, 2022 20:04:09 GMT
Joining the EEA is far more decisive than creating a hard border in Ireland which would require EU approval and break the GFA. Never going to happen. You can't predict the future, A United Ireland is far more decisive. We could be at war with Russia in August and a new Pandemic could start in Wales. Things could have been better planned for .....but you have to throw in the mix that every major party, institution and influential party was opposed to Brexit ,didn't want or intend to make it work, tried to reverse it, and we had to be dragged out. And they were the ones with the responsibility to implement it! It has only now being accepted , reluctantly by some, but obviously some will never accept it.. It is almost as if it was a bad idea perhaps….
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jun 28, 2022 20:06:37 GMT
Well - I don't really see re-entry to the EU without a referendum - nor a United Ireland (in which citizens of ROI would presumably participate). So - as I say - referendum territory. Re entry to the EU assumes they'd have us back anyway (not a given) but if they would I'm sure they would be more than happy to lay down their terms for doing so. But as we were told back in 2016 by Farage et al 'they need us more than we need them' then I'm sure they would be inordinately generous. And whatever they were - at least they'd be clearer and more detailed than - er - 'Brexit means Brexit' The tragedy of Brexit is it's irreversiblility (which I'm not even sure is a word), as the hard won concessions to the UK position within the EU will never be replicated outside it or by rejoining. Rejoining would be on drastically worse terms, making it politically impossible, so it's a case of making the best of inferior arrangements outside. Both significantly worse than what we had. Part of the madness of the 2nd Referendum campaign was driven by the realisation that once it happened the damage of Brexit could never be undone. I'm not sure it's a tragedy as such but the biggest flaw exposed by Brexit is that we do not possess the political leadership, intellect, consensus or system to make it work. It will be a running sore for years to come.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 28, 2022 20:24:18 GMT
You can't predict the future, A United Ireland is far more decisive. We could be at war with Russia in August and a new Pandemic could start in Wales. Things could have been better planned for .....but you have to throw in the mix that every major party, institution and influential party was opposed to Brexit ,didn't want or intend to make it work, tried to reverse it, and we had to be dragged out. And they were the ones with the responsibility to implement it! It has only now being accepted , reluctantly by some, but obviously some will never accept it.. It is almost as if it was a bad idea perhaps…. Some people think so , some don't. Different measures, Different opinions. The main thing it has happened.
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Post by wannabee on Jun 28, 2022 20:29:00 GMT
To answer your question Brandon would have no opion until it is given to him I'm surprised Jame O'brien is surprised most reasonably informed Journalists would fully understand this Lawlessness is the very hallmark of this Government and the Fish stinks from the head It ranges from the more petty Partygate fiasco, but the attitude to its outcome of denial and failure to take responsibility underlines its contempt for Law and Order Up the scale we then have these champions of Sovereignty refusing a House of Commons Vote ordering it to release the papers on the appointment of "Lord" Lebedev Next up we have the more prosaic common or garden sleaz and potential criminality as evidenced by the Owen Patterson Affair and the Secret VIP Procurement Lane which was found to be illegal in the High Court The Patterson Affair gives an interesting insight into the thinking Because although found guilty and sanctioned there was an attempt to change the rules to avoid any punishment for one of "the Eton Chum" It backfired spectacularly Next up on the rank was the UK Internal Markets Bill which Brandon Lewis announced to the House of Commons in September 2020 would breach International Law but ONLY in a "Limited and Specific Way" The timing of this is important as it is less than a year after The Withdrawal Agreement and The Protocol was agreed in October 2019 This was Boris Johnson's "Oven Ready Turkey" on which he won the December 2019 Election EU immediately commenced Legal Action. In steps Michael Give who negotiates with Mauro Sefcovic and hey presto Gove announces in December 2020 everything is now OK with The Protocol and the Northern-ireland Clauses in the IM Bill are removed The Agreement is signed into UK Law on 31st December 2020 and UK leave EU on 31st January 2021 Hurrah! Not quite Boris's "Oven Ready Turkey " which Gove had Butter Basted was still not succulent and plump enough Our latest Brexit Hero announces that UK is taking Unilateral Action to ignore the Agreement it had painstakingly agreed There is no question to anyone with an ounce of common sense that it breaks International Law Whether UK Government intends to fully push through all stages of NI Protocol Bill I'm doubtful but perhaps they are crazy enough Perhaps the EU renewed legal Action may come first forcing mediation A review of the Legal Opinion is here www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/northern-ireland-protocol-billRaab's clumsy attempt to imply his Bill of Rights overrides ECHR doesn't exorcise me too much, it doesn't It's a wedge issue intended to throw red meat to its supporters One of the specific issues it purports to address is The Rwanda Policy which the legality or otherwise will be subject to full Judicial Review next month so we shall see More concerning in the Bill is that it will make it more difficult for UK Citizens to gain access to ECHR An excellent account. So would you say the only three solutions in the medium or long term are: Rejoin the EU A United Ireland A Hard border between NI and the Republic. I expect this is a rhetorical question but in answer none of the above. The only part of the NIP that's not working is the East/West movement of goods Sefcovic's proposals in October 2021 almost mirror Liz Truss's Red/Green Lane plan. With finessing and light touch this would meet DUPs original objections The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is over egged to remove ECJ (on single market rules) (which DUP never asked for originally, they may now) VAT (which is one of the justifications of immediate peril NI is facing in the legal justification apparently) and application of CE or new UKCA standards which have yet to be introduced and can only be traded in England, Scotland and Wales and not up to now NI. Industries generally are not happy and head of Dairy Farming for instance has said if it goes ahead it would close down that ndustry overnight which is an entirely island based industry
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 28, 2022 20:43:24 GMT
An excellent account. So would you say the only three solutions in the medium or long term are: Rejoin the EU A United Ireland A Hard border between NI and the Republic. I expect this is a rhetorical question but in answer none of the above. The only part of the NIP that's not working is the East/West movement of goods Sefcovic's proposals in October 2021 almost mirror Liz Truss's Red/Green Lane plan. With finessing and light touch this would meet DUPs original objections The Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is over egged to remove ECJ (on single market rules) (which DUP never asked for originally, they may now) VAT (which is one of the justifications of immediate peril NI is facing in the legal justification apparently) and application of CE or new UKCA standards which have yet to be introduced and can only be traded in England, Scotland and Wales and not up to now NI. Industries generally are not happy and head of Dairy Farming for instance has said if it goes ahead it would close down that ndustry overnight which is an entirely island based industry You obviously know a lot more of the detail and understanding on this than me. But for other reasons, perhaps political and democratic, perhaps the Republicans taking the opportunity to use the situation and given the changing demographics of NI....isn't an equally valid solution....in what timescale , I've no idea...... a United Ireland?
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Post by muggleton on Jun 28, 2022 20:53:09 GMT
I find the accept/make the best of Brexit line a bit glib tbh. Just about everyone tries to make the best of bad situations not of their making. People and communities did it throughout Thatcherism, without feeling they necessarily had to change their view on how damaging it was. Agree on all other fronts though. Get this shower gone. To make the best of Brexit we should join the EEA until we have a real idea of where we want to go. As the leave ideals sold in the referendum were lies and never possible, this government has led us up shit creek without a paddle and don’t have a clue, and there is no viable option. So I think we join the EEA and recover economically and see where we are in a few years. That would fully respect the referendum result but minimise the negative impacts whilst giving us a chance to see if there is some positives to look for with a more distanced relationship with the EU at some point in the future. Well when you put it that way it isn't glib at all and I entirely agree. Those phrases just set me on edge they're often meaningless variations on "suck it up". I live, work and very often drink in Brexit strongholds so have had endless exhortations to accept it, make the most of it and, particularly ludicrously "Back Boris" (fuck off!). That EEA membership or similar is politically impossible and won't be on the next manifesto of either main party shows the we'll be Getting Brexit Done for a while yet.
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Post by wannabee on Jun 28, 2022 21:02:13 GMT
You obviously know a lot more of the detail and understanding on this than me. But for other reasons, perhaps political and democratic, perhaps the Republicans taking the opportunity to use the situation and the changing demographics of NI....isn't an equally valid solution....in what timescale , I've no idea, a United Ireland? Muggleton is equally if not more knowledgeable on this having lived through it We disagree on the timeframe I believe 5 to 10 years Demographics will inextricably move the dial I believe he thinks it may take 20 years Neither of us care too much provided its done without violence Personally I would favour a move to more joint administration as an interim step You may be aware that as part of the Protocol it has to voted on before 31st December 2024 by simple majority whether to retain it. 56 of the 90 NI MPs recently wrote an open letter to Liz Truss condemning her actions on The Northern-ireland Protocol Bill Of those 56 29 would be classified as Republican The middle ground is getting stronger and long may it continue
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 28, 2022 21:15:35 GMT
You obviously know a lot more of the detail and understanding on this than me. But for other reasons, perhaps political and democratic, perhaps the Republicans taking the opportunity to use the situation and the changing demographics of NI....isn't an equally valid solution....in what timescale , I've no idea, a United Ireland? Muggleton is equally if not more knowledgeable on this having lived through it We disagree on the timeframe I believe 5 to 10 years Demographics will inextricably move the dial I believe he thinks it may take 20 years Neither of us care too much provided its done without violence Personally I would favour a move to more joint administration as an interim step You may be aware that as part of the Protocol it has to voted on before 31st December 2024 by simple majority whether to retain it. 56 of the 90 NI MPs recently wrote an open letter to Liz Truss condemning her actions on The Northern-ireland Protocol Bill Of those 56 29 would be classified as Republican The middle ground is getting stronger and long may it continue An interim step to what....to a point when the Demographics favour Republicanism? What does " the Middle ground" mean here.....those who will accept a pragmatic solution ( almost any pragmatic solution) free of ideology, as long as something is " workable" ...and of course avoids violence( I'd like to think that everyone involved would share that and commit to it). I'm not " arguing here, by the way, just trying to get a better understanding. So say in 10 years time is a United Ireand a possibility , as much as " joint administration "? ( is joint ..Uk/Republic?....it can't be " Republic/NI( Obviously)) Who would be the arbiters...it cannot just be the EU Court of justce ....a new body?....acceptable to the EU?....composition? ....I know you are not saying that either or any particular scenario WILL happen , I'd just like your opinion.
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Post by wannabee on Jun 28, 2022 22:24:20 GMT
Muggleton is equally if not more knowledgeable on this having lived through it We disagree on the timeframe I believe 5 to 10 years Demographics will inextricably move the dial I believe he thinks it may take 20 years Neither of us care too much provided its done without violence Personally I would favour a move to more joint administration as an interim step You may be aware that as part of the Protocol it has to voted on before 31st December 2024 by simple majority whether to retain it. 56 of the 90 NI MPs recently wrote an open letter to Liz Truss condemning her actions on The Northern-ireland Protocol Bill Of those 56 29 would be classified as Republican The middle ground is getting stronger and long may it continue An interim step to what....to a point when the Demographics favour Republicanism? What does " the Middle ground" mean here.....those who will accept a pragmatic solution ( almost any pragmatic solution) free of ideology, as long as something is " workable" ...and of course avoids violence( I'd like to think that everyone involved would share that and commit to it). I'm not " arguing here, by the way, just trying to get a better understanding. So say in 10 years time is a United Ireand a possibility , as much as " joint administration "? ( is joint ..Uk/Republic?....it can't be " Republic/NI( Obviously)) Who would be the arbiters...it cannot just be the EU Court of justce ....a new body?....acceptable to the EU?....composition? ....I know you are not saying that either or any WILL happen , I'd just like your opinion. To a point where Demographics follow the reality. The recent census showed a population of 1.9M Its highest ever 25% were over 65 Full details of poll won't be available until next year but 2011 showed 45.1% Catholic 48.4% Protestant I would be amazed if that wasn't reversed Unionists are an aging population with low birth rate Catholics are well you know different Sinn Fein support a 50%+1 scenario I don't as it will be as devisive as a 52/48 Brexit but if a 50%+1 leads to a period of integration then yes Take Policing as an example the present force were established to replace the previous one because it comprised 90% Protestant to represent the 55% What should a new force look like Ironically the head of ROI Police Force iwas formerly Deputy Head of NI Police Force Army i think there are 4 Regiments in NI ROI is currently neutral. Does a new State become Neutral or does ROI join NATO there are certainly discussions in ROI about it currently due to Ukraine As you say external events can upend people's previous thinking. Where would be seat of Government be in a United Ireland Belfast or Dublin If Dublin would there be some devolved powers to a Belfast Assembly I didn't make it clear in my previous post hence your question Catholics and Protestants do not entirely vote alone Party lines. In the last Election Voting was 40% Republican 40% Unionist and 20% Alliance which are neither . The generation that were born after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement are now voting and don't have the baggage of the "Troubles " Generally their outlook is more inclusive than narrow and this trend will undoubtedly grow
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 28, 2022 22:34:08 GMT
An interim step to what....to a point when the Demographics favour Republicanism? What does " the Middle ground" mean here.....those who will accept a pragmatic solution ( almost any pragmatic solution) free of ideology, as long as something is " workable" ...and of course avoids violence( I'd like to think that everyone involved would share that and commit to it). I'm not " arguing here, by the way, just trying to get a better understanding. So say in 10 years time is a United Ireand a possibility , as much as " joint administration "? ( is joint ..Uk/Republic?....it can't be " Republic/NI( Obviously)) Who would be the arbiters...it cannot just be the EU Court of justce ....a new body?....acceptable to the EU?....composition? ....I know you are not saying that either or any WILL happen , I'd just like your opinion. To a point where Demographics follow the reality. The recent census showed a population of 1.9M Its highest ever 25% were over 65 Full details of poll won't be available until next year but 2011 showed 45.1% Catholic 48.4% Protestant I would be amazed if that wasn't reversed Unionists are an aging population with low birth rate Catholics are well you know different Sinn Fein support a 50%+1 scenario I don't as it will be as devisive as a 52/48 Brexit but if a 50%+1 leads to a period of integration then yes Take Policing as an example the present force were established to replace the previous one because it comprised 90% Protestant to represent the 55% What should a new force look like Ironically the head of ROI Police Force iwas formerly Deputy Head of NI Police Force Army i think there are 4 Regiments in NI ROI is currently neutral. Does a new State become Neutral or does ROI join NATO there are certainly discussions in ROI about it currently due to Ukraine As you say external events can upend people's previous thinking. Where would be seat of Government be in a United Ireland Belfast or Dublin If Dublin would there be some devolved powers to a Belfast Assembly I didn't make it clear in my previous post hence your question Catholics and Protestants do not entirely vote alone Party lines. In the last Election Voting was 40% Republican 40% Unionist and 20% Alliance which are neither . The generation that were born after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement are now voting and don't have the baggage of the "Troubles " Generally their outlook is more inclusive than narrow and this trend will undoubtedly grow Thanks for the full reply, Wannabee I know that this reply is too simplistic and does not address your detail, I have always understood that it isn't as simple as Protestant = Unionist etc. But Generally speaking: Wouldn't the advantages of a united Ireland be: a clear division between the EU,Republic/ uk The support of the majority of the people on the Island of Ireland Perceived disadvantages: The UK is broken up/ loses NI......is that a bad thing? The minority, Protestant/ Unionists group ( largely), may have some form of " retribution " ( not violent , but in terms of job/ housing opportunities) In changing times is there anyway that a Referendum could encompass the whole of Ireland nor just NI ?.....of course the answer must be " no".....but totally hypothetically it could be argued that a whole Island vote would be valid, as the division was just a political, unacceptable, artificial construct.
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Post by wannabee on Jun 28, 2022 23:48:03 GMT
To a point where Demographics follow the reality. The recent census showed a population of 1.9M Its highest ever 25% were over 65 Full details of poll won't be available until next year but 2011 showed 45.1% Catholic 48.4% Protestant I would be amazed if that wasn't reversed Unionists are an aging population with low birth rate Catholics are well you know different Sinn Fein support a 50%+1 scenario I don't as it will be as devisive as a 52/48 Brexit but if a 50%+1 leads to a period of integration then yes Take Policing as an example the present force were established to replace the previous one because it comprised 90% Protestant to represent the 55% What should a new force look like Ironically the head of ROI Police Force iwas formerly Deputy Head of NI Police Force Army i think there are 4 Regiments in NI ROI is currently neutral. Does a new State become Neutral or does ROI join NATO there are certainly discussions in ROI about it currently due to Ukraine As you say external events can upend people's previous thinking. Where would be seat of Government be in a United Ireland Belfast or Dublin If Dublin would there be some devolved powers to a Belfast Assembly I didn't make it clear in my previous post hence your question Catholics and Protestants do not entirely vote alone Party lines. In the last Election Voting was 40% Republican 40% Unionist and 20% Alliance which are neither . The generation that were born after the 1998 Good Friday Agreement are now voting and don't have the baggage of the "Troubles " Generally their outlook is more inclusive than narrow and this trend will undoubtedly grow Thanks for the full reply, Wannabee I know that this reply is too simplistic and does not address your detail, I have always understood that it isn't as simple as Protestant = Unionist etc. But Generally speaking: Wouldn't the advantages of a united Ireland be: a clear division between the EU,Republic/ uk The support of the majority of the people on the Island of Ireland Perceived disadvantages: The UK is broken up/ loses NI......is that a bad thing? The minority, Protestant/ Unionists group ( largely), may have some form of " retribution " ( not violent , but in terms of job/ housing opportunities) In changing times is there anyway that a Referendum could encompass the whole of Ireland nor just NI ?.....of course the answer must be " no".....but totally hypothetically it could be argued that a whole Island vote would be valid, as the division was just a political, unacceptable, artificial construct. I am sincerely not being condescending here but you have absolutely hit the nail on the head perhaps inadvertently The whole establishment of NI was indeed an artificial construct Initially of the six counties that comprise NI only 3 were truly suitable as a separate statelet under the terms of reference e.g. establish a Protestant entity It was then decided that looking into the future this size and population would not be big enough to be sustainable so 3 more were added. Another County Donegal was also considered and geographically would make sense but it was felt this would over time upset the Protestant/Catholic Balance over time. Then to compound the situation the internal boundaries were drawn up for political representation to ensure a gerrymandering situation ensured a Protestant Majority A BBC Radio blog from 2012 by Robert Kee explains how it worked using Derry as an example which was predominantly Catholic but 70% represented by Protestants. Note he uses the late 1960s as his reference point which was the commencement of Civil Rights Marches by Catholics to seek equal treatment in employment, housing etc At that time the IRA were seen as a figure of fun and had been semi dormant for more than 20 years but failure by the British Government to address the obvious discrimination created Vacuum and the rest is History I have no wish to see a reverse situation occur and Protestant/Unionists traditions should be absorbed without them being fearful on the basis of equality Undoubtedly ROI would need to conduct a Referendum to accept a United Ireland but separate toan NI Referendum to want it I would see stronger US support in terms of FDI more forthcoming than from EU
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Post by wannabee on Jun 28, 2022 23:49:52 GMT
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 29, 2022 17:18:19 GMT
Not inadvertently really Wannabee. I have always taken a close interest Irish matters, just not so much the detail of recent events, so I thank you and Muggleton for that. My grandad, Kelly, was a passionate Irish man, so I’m told, he’d died before I was born. When I was in the Labour Party I was strongly in favour of Irish unity. I think I am now going full circle, back to that position- not that I think I have a right to a view really, it is a question for the Irish. I think being British at the time of the Troubles effects a person’s thinking, but the nearest connection I had was a friend from Newry, who used get up in the morning to find an armed soldier/ police officer , I can’t remember which, right outside her front door, before she had to walk to school. At first very disconcerting , but she then became more suspicious and scared when a military man wasn’t there. I’ve seen the video for which you have provided a link, it is one part of the Robert Kee BBC Series, I think I will give it another watch. youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-NlJbmY3woh0SDUIy2ION2-DWyoz8oxYOne of my students is doing his Masters along the lines of.... Remembering and forgetting in Ireland ‘Ideas, images, and objects in the construction of the national identity of Ireland in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries’ So far he has investigated, Charles Parnell, Patrick Pearse, Michael Collins, George Petrie, Book of Kells,Setanta,the Gaelic League, the Black and Tans,.....so I’m finding it interesting to revisit some of those things. I’d think the capital of a United Ireland would be Dublin, but again it would be decided by the new regime. I think a United Ireland would, by and large, give a tremendous boost to “ Ireland “ on many different levels. I do think people will largely vote on matters of Identity, sovereignty, freedom and democracy, geography and history.... not trade and the difficulties of making the transition. I do think things could change fairly quickly, historically speaking. Thanks for keeping me informed
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 29, 2022 18:01:06 GMT
Not inadvertently really Wannabee. I have always taken a close interest Irish matters, just not so much the detail of recent events, so I thank you and Muggleton for that. My grandad, Kelly, was a passionate Irish man, so I’m told, he’d died before I was born. When I was in the Labour Party I was strongly in favour of Irish unity. I think I am now going full circle, back to that position- not that I think I have a right to a view really, it is a question for the Irish. I think being British at the time of the Troubles effects a person’s thinking, but the nearest connection I had was a friend from Newry, who used get up in the morning to find an armed soldier/ police officer , I can’t remember which, right outside her front door, before she had to walk to school. At first very disconcerting , but she then became more suspicious and scared when a military man wasn’t there. I’ve seen the video for which you have provided a link, it is one part of the Robert Kee BBC Series, I think I will give it another watch. One of my students is doing his Masters along the lines of.... Remembering and forgetting in Ireland ‘Ideas, images, and objects in the construction of the national identity of Ireland in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries’ So far he has investigated, Charles Parnell, Patrick Pearse, Michael Collins, George Petrie, Book of Kells,Setanta,the Gaelic League, the Black and Tans,.....so I’m finding it interesting to revisit some of those things. I’d think the capital of a United Ireland would be Dublin, but again it would be decided by the new regime. I think a United Ireland would, by and large, give a tremendous boost to “ Ireland “ on many different levels. I do think people will largely vote on matters of Identity, sovereignty, freedom and democracy and history.... not trade and the difficulties of making the transition. I do think things could change fairly quickly, historically speaking. Thanks for keeping me informed Interesting bj. One name to add to the list is Arthur Griffith. I do not enter into the debate on NI. My first wife was related to Griffith and from Dublin. I had 25 years of instruction that Ireland should be a united country. Griffith did as much as anyone for Ireland and worked himself to death for the cause.
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Post by wannabee on Jun 29, 2022 22:17:17 GMT
Not inadvertently really Wannabee. I have always taken a close interest Irish matters, just not so much the detail of recent events, so I thank you and Muggleton for that. My grandad, Kelly, was a passionate Irish man, so I’m told, he’d died before I was born. When I was in the Labour Party I was strongly in favour of Irish unity. I think I am now going full circle, back to that position- not that I think I have a right to a view really, it is a question for the Irish. I think being British at the time of the Troubles effects a person’s thinking, but the nearest connection I had was a friend from Newry, who used get up in the morning to find an armed soldier/ police officer , I can’t remember which, right outside her front door, before she had to walk to school. At first very disconcerting , but she then became more suspicious and scared when a military man wasn’t there. I’ve seen the video for which you have provided a link, it is one part of the Robert Kee BBC Series, I think I will give it another watch. youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-NlJbmY3woh0SDUIy2ION2-DWyoz8oxYOne of my students is doing his Masters along the lines of.... Remembering and forgetting in Ireland ‘Ideas, images, and objects in the construction of the national identity of Ireland in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries’ So far he has investigated, Charles Parnell, Patrick Pearse, Michael Collins, George Petrie, Book of Kells,Setanta,the Gaelic League, the Black and Tans,.....so I’m finding it interesting to revisit some of those things. I’d think the capital of a United Ireland would be Dublin, but again it would be decided by the new regime. I think a United Ireland would, by and large, give a tremendous boost to “ Ireland “ on many different levels. I do think people will largely vote on matters of Identity, sovereignty, freedom and democracy, geography and history.... not trade and the difficulties of making the transition. I do think things could change fairly quickly, historically speaking. Thanks for keeping me informed You seem like a person who has an open mind and not afraid to challenge your own thinking as events change or new ideas are presented. If there were more people in NI today with that viewpoint it would be a better place I agree people vote on Identity, Sovereignty, Freedom and Democracy etc but I'm minded of a TV Clip where Gorbachev was on a walkabout and was confronted by a complaining Babushka He was explaining to her the joy of Democracy to which she replied "Yes but where are the sausages" Like many histories NI/Ireland's is based on both fact and myth. People recall the Plantation of Ulster by lowland Scots and others but few recognise that the majority left Ulster during the 1700s predominantly to Canada and US and other Commonwealth Countries The Majority of today's Protestant decendents are descendents of the Williamite (William of Orange) Protestant Army composed of British, Dutch Huguenot, Danes and Ulster Protestants which defeated the Jacobites(James 11) at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690 and is still celebrated today The Penal Laws ( restricting land ownership) under the Act of Accendancy applied equally to both Catholics and all other religions Including Protestant Dissenter Planters, Quakers etc etc I.e. anyone that didn't follow the Anglican Church of Ireland/England which was why many left in the 1700s In this context it may be interesting for your student to research the United Irishmen formed in 1791 in Belfast by Presbyterians Merchants and equal membership of Catholics . It's principles were inspired by American Independence and French Declaration of the Rights of Man It's Common goal was the overthrow of Protestant (Anglican) Ascendancy and to have a representative Parliament. Wolfe Tone a Dublin Presbyterian Barrister was amongst its leaders and he is today considered to be the Father of Irish Republicanism As a nod to Mr Coke Arthur Griffiths was indeed a very important figure in Irish History not least being the founder of Sinn Fein (Ourselves) he was quite possibly an antisemite but there are opinions that he altered his views in later life One of his main platforms in Sinn Fein was abstentionism from Westminster Parliament a policy Sinn Fein continues to this day. Paradoxically he was not anti crown and had proposed dominion status for Ireland with a common Monarch, this never received traction He was not a combatant in 1916 Rising but as a political leader was incarcerated in Gloucester Prison for his trouble While incarcerated he won a by-election with the slogan "Get him in, to get him out" Very much mirroring the succession of by-elections won by the hunger strikers 1980/81 He led the delegation which.negotiated the Treaty with Lloyd George which led to the establishment of the Irish Free State. He was very much overshadowed in those negotiations by the more charismatic Michael Collins
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jun 29, 2022 23:45:26 GMT
Not inadvertently really Wannabee. I have always taken a close interest Irish matters, just not so much the detail of recent events, so I thank you and Muggleton for that. My grandad, Kelly, was a passionate Irish man, so I’m told, he’d died before I was born. When I was in the Labour Party I was strongly in favour of Irish unity. I think I am now going full circle, back to that position- not that I think I have a right to a view really, it is a question for the Irish. I think being British at the time of the Troubles effects a person’s thinking, but the nearest connection I had was a friend from Newry, who used get up in the morning to find an armed soldier/ police officer , I can’t remember which, right outside her front door, before she had to walk to school. At first very disconcerting , but she then became more suspicious and scared when a military man wasn’t there. I’ve seen the video for which you have provided a link, it is one part of the Robert Kee BBC Series, I think I will give it another watch. youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-NlJbmY3woh0SDUIy2ION2-DWyoz8oxYOne of my students is doing his Masters along the lines of.... Remembering and forgetting in Ireland ‘Ideas, images, and objects in the construction of the national identity of Ireland in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries’ So far he has investigated, Charles Parnell, Patrick Pearse, Michael Collins, George Petrie, Book of Kells,Setanta,the Gaelic League, the Black and Tans,.....so I’m finding it interesting to revisit some of those things. I’d think the capital of a United Ireland would be Dublin, but again it would be decided by the new regime. I think a United Ireland would, by and large, give a tremendous boost to “ Ireland “ on many different levels. I do think people will largely vote on matters of Identity, sovereignty, freedom and democracy, geography and history.... not trade and the difficulties of making the transition. I do think things could change fairly quickly, historically speaking. Thanks for keeping me informed You seem like a person who has an open mind and not afraid to challenge your own thinking as events change or new ideas are presented. If there were more people in NI today with that viewpoint it would be a better place I agree people vote on Identity, Sovereignty, Freedom and Democracy etc but I'm minded of a TV Clip where Gorbachev was on a walkabout and was confronted by a complaining Babushka He was explaining to her the joy of Democracy to which she replied "Yes but where are the sausages" Like many histories NI/Ireland's is based on both fact and myth. People recall the Plantation of Ulster by lowland Scots and others but few recognise that the majority left Ulster during the 1700s predominantly to Canada and US and other Commonwealth Countries The Majority of today's Protestant decendents are descendents of the Williamite (William of Orange) Protestant Army composed of British, Dutch Huguenot, Danes and Ulster Protestants which defeated the Jacobites(James 11) at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690 and is still celebrated today The Penal Laws ( restricting land ownership) under the Act of Accendancy applied equally to both Catholics and all other religions Including Protestant Dissenter Planters, Quakers etc etc I.e. anyone that didn't follow the Anglican Church of Ireland/England which was why many left in the 1700s In this context it may be interesting for your student to research the United Irishmen formed in 1791 in Belfast by Presbyterians Merchants and equal membership of Catholics . It's principles were inspired by American Independence and French Declaration of the Rights of Man It's Common goal was the overthrow of Protestant (Anglican) Ascendancy and to have a representative Parliament. Wolfe Tone a Dublin Presbyterian Barrister was amongst its leaders and he is today considered to be the Father of Irish Republicanism As a nod to Mr Coke Arthur Griffiths was indeed a very important figure in Irish History not least being the founder of Sinn Fein (Ourselves) he was quite possibly an antisemite but there are opinions that he altered his views in later life One of his main platforms in Sinn Fein was abstentionism from Westminster Parliament a policy Sinn Fein continues to this day. Paradoxically he was not anti crown and had proposed dominion status for Ireland with a common Monarch, this never received traction He was not a combatant in 1916 Rising but as a political leader was incarcerated in Gloucester Prison for his trouble While incarcerated he won a by-election with the slogan "Get him in, to get him out" Very much mirroring the succession of by-elections won by the hunger strikers 1980/81 He led the delegation which.negotiated the Treaty with Lloyd George which led to the establishment of the Irish Free State. He was very much overshadowed in those negotiations by the more charismatic Michael Collins Thanks again Wannabee. When you refer to Babouska, some of the quotes of Gandhi came in my mind..... “I am not going to be satisfied with anything short of complete freedom. May be, he (the Viceroy) will propose the abolition of salt tax, the drink evil. But I will say nothing less than freedom”. Gandhi jee then followed up with the now famous exhortation Do or Die. “Here is a Mantra, a short one that I give you. You may imprint it on your hearts and let every breath of yours give expression to it. The mantra is Do or Die. We shall either free India or die in the attempt; we shall not live to see the perpetuation of slavery”. "Let every Indian consider himself to be a free man." “Ours is not a drive for power, but purely a non-violent fight for India’s independence. “I believe that in the history of the world, there has not been a more genuinely democratic struggle for freedom than ours.” “In the democracy which I have envisaged, a democracy established by nonviolence, there will be equal freedom for all.” “Everybody will be his own master. It is to join a struggle for such democracy that I invite you today. Once you realize this you will forget the differences between the Hindus and Muslims, and think of yourselves as Indians only, engaged in the common struggle for independence”. Of course sausages are important, but there does not have to be a correlation between sausages and freedom. In the case of Ireland, I don't think the two could be perceived as alternatives, It will be an emotional decision , not practical....moreso in my opinion. In the case of Ireland, I don't think the voters will have the fear of starvation in their minds ( or many other practical issues embraced by " sausages"....except perhaps the Protocol, to which a UnitedIrelandwould be a solution , not a problem)......except perhaps the Potato famine for some. I think the issue of Scottish independence will be somewhat different, through practical issues such as currency, borders and the economy to consider, I'd have thought that the Irish issue is more akin to East Germany joining West....in a way, ready made destination.
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Post by toppercorner on Jun 30, 2022 17:40:39 GMT
Fucking Brexit "Although the Office for National Statistics warned that the figures it published were “subject to higher levels of uncertainty than normal”, the new system it used to collect the trade data based on customs records was chosen because it was thought to be more accurate. The weak performance of UK exports and a surge in imports will add to pressure on the government over the damaging economic effects of Brexit as the official figures corroborate academic studies showing a rupture in UK exports since the new border controls were imposed in 2021." www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-f9fc-4f1e-84c1-3632f194d05a
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Post by mrcoke on Jun 30, 2022 19:44:51 GMT
Fucking Brexit "Although the Office for National Statistics warned that the figures it published were “subject to higher levels of uncertainty than normal”, the new system it used to collect the trade data based on customs records was chosen because it was thought to be more accurate. The weak performance of UK exports and a surge in imports will add to pressure on the government over the damaging economic effects of Brexit as the official figures corroborate academic studies showing a rupture in UK exports since the new border controls were imposed in 2021." www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-f9fc-4f1e-84c1-3632f194d05aInstead of getting upset reading claptrap in a biased anti Brexit medium, I suggest you read some real data, not opinion, published today by ONS on UK actual performance in Q1 and compared to the rest of the G7, and formulate your own opinion based on facts not someone else's opinion. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2022
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Post by toppercorner on Jun 30, 2022 20:13:31 GMT
Fucking Brexit "Although the Office for National Statistics warned that the figures it published were “subject to higher levels of uncertainty than normal”, the new system it used to collect the trade data based on customs records was chosen because it was thought to be more accurate. The weak performance of UK exports and a surge in imports will add to pressure on the government over the damaging economic effects of Brexit as the official figures corroborate academic studies showing a rupture in UK exports since the new border controls were imposed in 2021." www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-f9fc-4f1e-84c1-3632f194d05aInstead of getting upset reading claptrap in a biased anti Brexit medium, I suggest you read some real data, not opinion, published today by ONS on UK actual performance in Q1 and compared to the rest of the G7, and formulate your own opinion based on facts not someone else's opinion. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2022here's some first hand data because of brexit, i can't work abroad like i used to ,and have lost clients and money, all because some old etonions conned the cap-doffing british public. Therefore, less disposable income to spend in the area, and we all become poorer. we've shot ourselves in the dick and it's never going to heal.
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Post by muggleton on Jun 30, 2022 20:41:09 GMT
You obviously know a lot more of the detail and understanding on this than me. But for other reasons, perhaps political and democratic, perhaps the Republicans taking the opportunity to use the situation and the changing demographics of NI....isn't an equally valid solution....in what timescale , I've no idea, a United Ireland? Muggleton is equally if not more knowledgeable on this having lived through it We disagree on the timeframe I believe 5 to 10 years Demographics will inextricably move the dial I believe he thinks it may take 20 years Neither of us care too much provided its done without violence Personally I would favour a move to more joint administration as an interim step You may be aware that as part of the Protocol it has to voted on before 31st December 2024 by simple majority whether to retain it. 56 of the 90 NI MPs recently wrote an open letter to Liz Truss condemning her actions on The Northern-ireland Protocol Bill Of those 56 29 would be classified as Republican The middle ground is getting stronger and long may it continue I'm enjoying the chat btw, and it'll be fascinating to see how this pans out. I just think there's a fair few turns in the road before unity is an imminent possibility. SF is imo under less pressure from its base to deliver a Referendum than Nicola Sturgeon is. She's getting outflanked by Alba, whereas SF's more hardline opponents in its own community have minimal support. The progress towards equality since the GFA is an important pressure valve that's taking some of the heat out of the push for unity. Young Catholics can be visibly Irish, get jobs and progress without having to keep their heads down or put up with the daily ritual humiliations of the past. They can get on with life without having to worry about overthrowing the state. The size of the public sector in NI compared to ROI is a factor too. A generation ago Catholics were largely restricted through discrimination to lower ranking jobs, but they're now over represented to the extent that job ads often appeal for more Protestants to apply. What happens to these jobs and pensions post unity will be a decisive factor in any Referendum. Similarly the NHS (which is an absolute shambles in NI, with worse outcomes than the public/private mix in ROI, but hardly anyone wants to give it up). Proponents of unity, like me, need an answer for these questions and I've not seen a persuasive case yet. SF getting the NI First Minister spot will be symbolically important, and their poll ratings in ROI would have them set for government in normal circumstances. That in itself could be a problem though, as the ROI establishment is far more hostile to them than the British one has been since the GFA. The talent pool in their TDs is really shallow too, with a few not fit for local council seats who got elected as TD's on the wave of support at the last election. Residents of S-O-T North may empathise. A SF govt will be up against it, and could be a disaster. So I don't buy the inevitability of unity, but its far more likely than at any point in my lifetime. I'll take that tbh.
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jun 30, 2022 20:48:19 GMT
Fucking Brexit "Although the Office for National Statistics warned that the figures it published were “subject to higher levels of uncertainty than normal”, the new system it used to collect the trade data based on customs records was chosen because it was thought to be more accurate. The weak performance of UK exports and a surge in imports will add to pressure on the government over the damaging economic effects of Brexit as the official figures corroborate academic studies showing a rupture in UK exports since the new border controls were imposed in 2021." www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-f9fc-4f1e-84c1-3632f194d05aInstead of getting upset reading claptrap in a biased anti Brexit medium, I suggest you read some real data, not opinion, published today by ONS on UK actual performance in Q1 and compared to the rest of the G7, and formulate your own opinion based on facts not someone else's opinion. www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/quarterlynationalaccounts/januarytomarch2022From one article on the BBC site today: Andrew Bailey saying soaring inflation could hit the UK harder than elsewhere and the UK's economy would be likely to weaken earlier and the effects would be more intense than for other countries as a result of the energy price shock and labour shortages. Official figures released on Thursday showing that in the first three months of the year the UK's current account deficit - the gap between the value of goods and services imported compared with exports - hit the largest shortfall since records began in 1955. Figures released on Thursday showing that household finances failed to keep up with inflation in the first three months of the year, marking the first time real disposable income has fallen for four quarters in a row since records began. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61987071
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Post by muggleton on Jun 30, 2022 20:54:18 GMT
Not inadvertently really Wannabee. I have always taken a close interest Irish matters, just not so much the detail of recent events, so I thank you and Muggleton for that. My grandad, Kelly, was a passionate Irish man, so I’m told, he’d died before I was born. When I was in the Labour Party I was strongly in favour of Irish unity. I think I am now going full circle, back to that position- not that I think I have a right to a view really, it is a question for the Irish. I think being British at the time of the Troubles effects a person’s thinking, but the nearest connection I had was a friend from Newry, who used get up in the morning to find an armed soldier/ police officer , I can’t remember which, right outside her front door, before she had to walk to school. At first very disconcerting , but she then became more suspicious and scared when a military man wasn’t there. I’ve seen the video for which you have provided a link, it is one part of the Robert Kee BBC Series, I think I will give it another watch. youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-NlJbmY3woh0SDUIy2ION2-DWyoz8oxYOne of my students is doing his Masters along the lines of.... Remembering and forgetting in Ireland ‘Ideas, images, and objects in the construction of the national identity of Ireland in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries’ So far he has investigated, Charles Parnell, Patrick Pearse, Michael Collins, George Petrie, Book of Kells,Setanta,the Gaelic League, the Black and Tans,.....so I’m finding it interesting to revisit some of those things. I’d think the capital of a United Ireland would be Dublin, but again it would be decided by the new regime. I think a United Ireland would, by and large, give a tremendous boost to “ Ireland “ on many different levels. I do think people will largely vote on matters of Identity, sovereignty, freedom and democracy, geography and history.... not trade and the difficulties of making the transition. I do think things could change fairly quickly, historically speaking. Thanks for keeping me informed Sounds like a fascinating piece of work. Make sure he has some women in there, as we were very good at forgetting them. The role of women in 1916 and afterwards is only very recently being examined and understood. The role of the church(es) would be interesting too, as they had such an influence, and were in the front line of constructing the national myth of a pious, Catholic Ireland with De Valera's famous comely maidens dancing at the crossroads. To sustain this myth they ostracised anyone who didn't fit the narrative, and exported undesirables and (especially) their offspring on the boat to Britain. Right up to the referenda on divorce, contraception and equal marriage the church was fighting the battle for the Ireland they wanted. Thank fuck they lost those battles. Robert Kee's stuff is obv excellent, but if your student, or anyone, wants an enjoyable half hour synopsis of Irish life in any given year since 1970, set to the soundtrack of the time, the RTE's Reeling in the Years (available on YouTube) is tremendous. Similarly good, though necessarily grimmer is Pop Goes Northern Ireland on the iPlayer.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 1, 2022 7:25:17 GMT
here's some first hand data because of brexit, i can't work abroad like i used to ,and have lost clients and money, all because some old etonions conned the cap-doffing british public. Therefore, less disposable income to spend in the area, and we all become poorer. we've shot ourselves in the dick and it's never going to heal. I am genuinely sorry to hear that. It is a fact though that whatever direction the UK takes there are those that gain and those that suffer. I worked in and around the steel industry virtually all my life. During the UK's membership of the EEC and EU I witnessed the UK industry being decimated with 100,000s jobs lost while The Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, and Spain meanwhile increased theirs; in Spain's case at the UK taxpayers expense. This week I witnessed the demolition of another one of the plants I used to manage, but fortunately we are now investing massively in new infrastructure, new green industries and financial technology. People rightly complain of inflation and loss of real earnings, but these are worldwide issues and loss of real earnings is worse in a lot of EU countries. On the other hand the scourge of unemployment, which we suffered as UK industry was exported to the continent and the Far East, is the lowest for decades, and there has never been a better time to get a job, with vacancies at an all time high.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 1, 2022 8:52:30 GMT
From one article on the BBC site today: Andrew Bailey saying soaring inflation could hit the UK harder than elsewhere and the UK's economy would be likely to weaken earlier and the effects would be more intense than for other countries as a result of the energy price shock and labour shortages. Official figures released on Thursday showing that in the first three months of the year the UK's current account deficit - the gap between the value of goods and services imported compared with exports - hit the largest shortfall since records began in 1955. Figures released on Thursday showing that household finances failed to keep up with inflation in the first three months of the year, marking the first time real disposable income has fallen for four quarters in a row since records began. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61987071Inflation is soaring around the world. The UK's inflation is only marginally higher than the European mean, which would be about the same as the UK except for the much lower inflation in France. The balance of payments is the highest ever because of energy prices. Oil and gas price increases have been huge and the war has led to the dollar rising against 6 other major currencies and energy is traded in dollars. France's lower inflation is due to 70% of their power generation by nuclear power; plus Macron instructed the state owned French power companies not to pass on increased costs to French consumers, including French industry, last year. Disposable income has declined in many countries, many more than the UK. One of the extra driving forces for inflation is wage increases which have been a lot lower in other countries like France. If you deduct their inflation from wage increase many countries have a bigger drop in disposable income than the UK. tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growthtradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rateEdit: A very crude and far from accurate deduction of inflation from wage growth using the above figures gives the following figures for change in disposable income: USA +3.1%, UK -2.3%, Australia -2.7%, Canada -3.4%, Spain -5%, France -5.3%, Euro zone -5.9%, Netherlands -6%, Italy -7.1%, and Germany -9% (which does not seem believable to me, and misaligned to the Euro zone mean)
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Post by wannabee on Jul 1, 2022 14:12:50 GMT
here's some first hand data because of brexit, i can't work abroad like i used to ,and have lost clients and money, all because some old etonions conned the cap-doffing british public. Therefore, less disposable income to spend in the area, and we all become poorer. we've shot ourselves in the dick and it's never going to heal. I am genuinely sorry to hear that. It is a fact though that whatever direction the UK takes there are those that gain and those that suffer. I worked in and around the steel industry virtually all my life. During the UK's membership of the EEC and EU I witnessed the UK industry being decimated with 100,000s jobs lost while The Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, and Spain meanwhile increased theirs; in Spain's case at the UK taxpayers expense. This week I witnessed the demolition of another one of the plants I used to manage, but fortunately we are now investing massively in new infrastructure, new green industries and financial technology. People rightly complain of inflation and loss of real earnings, but these are worldwide issues and loss of real earnings is worse in a lot of EU countries. On the other hand the scourge of unemployment, which we suffered as UK industry was exported to the continent and the Far East, is the lowest for decades, and there has never been a better time to get a job, with vacancies at an all time high. You have vastly more knowledge of UK Steel Industry than I'll ever have but your explanation that its somehow because of EEC/EU is far too simplistic British Steel as was nationalised in 1967 was on it's arse long before UK joined the EEC. A standing joke and practice in early 70s was if you were driving on M4 from England into Wales people would count the minutes it would take to pass the Port Talbot Plant and calculate the amount of £Millions in subsidies the UK Taxpayer had incurred during the journey At around the same time many European customers began to question the reliability of supply due to the frequent industrial disputes effecting production and also the rising cost of its products Two years into EEC membership things got even worse with the 1975/76 Oil crisis when costs skyrocketed and UK was forced to accept a huge Bailout from IMF with onerous restrictions on spending which limited continued support for loss making British Steel such that closures of Steelworks commenced Clyde being the first in 1977. How you can claim 4 years of EEC membership brought about this demise is beyond me The newly elected 1979 Thatcher Government as well as actively pursuing an economic policy away from Manufacturing (coal was the target of choice but had a knock-on effect with Steel in favour of Service Industries. It also pursued a Monetary Policy of keeping £ high which made Steel Exports even more uncompetitive The 1980 General Steel Strike was in support of a 20% wage increase Management had initially offered 2% but upped it to 6% but said the loss making industry would have to lose one third of its workforce By the end of 1980 7 years after joining the EEC the numbers employed in the terminally declining Steel Industry had reduced by half from 320K to 167K for the reasons outlined above. The Industry was Privatised in 1988 and various attempts to modernise technology have had very mixed results from various ownerships. Completion from a glut of cheap Chinese subsidised steel in the last decade or so Ironically UK Steel has been spared from some of these excesses by EU Tarrif Restrictions As a Socio-economic exercise its interesting to take Consett which was one of the Steelworks closed in 1980 as an example of the effect on a one industry town. At the time the population was about 30,000 with 4,300 directly employed in the Steelworks and perhaps 3 to 4 times that indirectly. As a further act of vandalism the Government decided to close the railway effectively cutting it off from easy access to Newcastle 15 miles away to help re-employment or stimulate local industry. Today employment levels are back to 1980 levels but the relatively high paying Steelwork jobs have been replaced by call centre, distribution centre zero hours contract type jobs. Your other claim of Low Unemployment is equally questionable. There are 5.8M people currently in receipt of Universal Credit and therefore not counted as unemployed or underemployed They fall into 2 categories. 40% or about 2.3M are working poor of the profile of the people of Consett I described. There jobs as such and many have several are precarious in nature, lack security and typically zero hours contract. The remaining 60% or about 3.5M are for whatever reason , disability, mental illness, long Covid, illness are not available for work but are not classified as unemployed These are not peak figures but relatively constant. All of the above contributes to the appalling UK Productivity Levels Fine words about a high wage, high knowledge economy are stirring but unless policies are put in place in terms of Education, retraining, innovation etc they just remain words. Leveling up as a Policy is admirable, its attempted implementation is a Joke. It is underfunded at £4.4B it is centrally rather than regionally controlled, selection is politically influenced, there is too much emphasis on infrastructure rather than knowledge and innovation and most critically it has absolutely no KII Measurements Finally your attachment which I initially thought was an add for Hovis When the Recar Steelworks closed in 2016 it resulted in a 6% drop in UK Carbon Emmissions It will also cost Billions of UKTaxpaers money to clean up the site after the Thai Company SSI walked away
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Post by muggleton on Jul 1, 2022 21:27:19 GMT
From one article on the BBC site today: Andrew Bailey saying soaring inflation could hit the UK harder than elsewhere and the UK's economy would be likely to weaken earlier and the effects would be more intense than for other countries as a result of the energy price shock and labour shortages. Official figures released on Thursday showing that in the first three months of the year the UK's current account deficit - the gap between the value of goods and services imported compared with exports - hit the largest shortfall since records began in 1955. Figures released on Thursday showing that household finances failed to keep up with inflation in the first three months of the year, marking the first time real disposable income has fallen for four quarters in a row since records began. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61987071Inflation is soaring around the world. The UK's inflation is only marginally higher than the European mean, which would be about the same as the UK except for the much lower inflation in France. The balance of payments is the highest ever because of energy prices. Oil and gas price increases have been huge and the war has led to the dollar rising against 6 other major currencies and energy is traded in dollars. France's lower inflation is due to 70% of their power generation by nuclear power; plus Macron instructed the state owned French power companies not to pass on increased costs to French consumers, including French industry, last year. Disposable income has declined in many countries, many more than the UK. One of the extra driving forces for inflation is wage increases which have been a lot lower in other countries like France. If you deduct their inflation from wage increase many countries have a bigger drop in disposable income than the UK. tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growthtradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rateEdit: A very crude and far from accurate deduction of inflation from wage growth using the above figures gives the following figures for change in disposable income: USA +3.1%, UK -2.3%, Australia -2.7%, Canada -3.4%, Spain -5%, France -5.3%, Euro zone -5.9%, Netherlands -6%, Italy -7.1%, and Germany -9% (which does not seem believable to me, and misaligned to the Euro zone mean) "A very crude and far from accurate" - sometimes the Brexit jokes write themselves. 😁 The key thing will be whether Brexit makes the UK more or less resilient and adaptable to the threats and opportunities of an extremely challenging external environment. At best the jury is out on that one, though I genuinely hope your optimism is justified.
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