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Post by wannabee on Jul 4, 2022 11:50:41 GMT
The UK Subvention to NI is somewhat distorted and mythical In 2019 the Subvention for Cumbria and Greater Manchester was £20.2B and West Midlands £15B In 2019 for NI it amounted to £9.4B of which of this £3.4B related to pension payments to people who had contributed via NI Contributions which would continue unless UK walked away from this obligation. A further £2.4B relates to NI contribution to share of UK National Debt It would be difficult if not impossible for UK to calculate a continuance of the payment as its largely an accounting exercise Thirdly £1.1B relates to UKs Defence spending This brings you to a net figure of £2.5B Since 2013 Ireland has been a net contributer to EU Budget in 2018 this amounted to 0.7B This is the second highest per Capita at €148 per person within EU This would almost certainly be reversed with absorption of NI into a United Ireland These figures are Hardy surprising when you consider Ireland has the 4th Highest Per Capita GDP in the World 125% higher than UK which is 27th One of the bigger challenges of a United Ireland would be raising the Standard of Living and Social Benefits in Northern-ireland to the level enjoyed in ROI Since Brexit exports from NI to ROI have increased 65% and imports from ROI to NI have increased 54% A truly All Ireland Economy would have an even bigger financial gain Finally you have the US Card a United Ireland Economy would benefit from substantial FDI Investment from US Blimey, you don't half post some tosh at times. Im surprised you can say that with a straight face given the nonsense you posted belowOn spending of public money (subvention), the critical factor isn't total cost but cost per head, which as you'll see is very, very high in Northern Ireland. This is, I expect, what is causing the palpitations in the survey referenced ( link). Why on earth would the Per Capita cost be relevant It's the total Cost ROI would have to absorb and I've pointed out how that would be a manageable number once you have stripped away the non recurring costsOn pensions I guess you missed the recent comical debate about pension liabilities sparked by the Lard of the Isles off the cuff foot in mouth moment. Read more about it here; Blackford says independent Scotland will be liable for pensions. Bottom line there is no ongoing obligations for pensions which are paid from the current years tax receipts. There is no "pensions pot" for public pensions - the mistake Blackford made. We agree about Blackford he's an idiot, the rest you are very misinformed
Currently UK is paying a State Pensions to slightly under half a million people residing overseas Many thousands of those reside in ROI The only qualification for entitlement to a UK State Pension is having contributed to NI for 10 years. This policy was not altered after Brexit and there are still reciprocal arrangements with EU Why on Earth would that change. I realise UK Government is acting lawlessly in other areas but it would be a very extreme example in fact theft it it did what your suggesting
www.gov.uk/new-state-pension/living-and-working-overseas#:~:text=Your%20UK%20State%20Pension%20if%20you've%20lived%20or%20worked%20abroad&text=You%20need%2010%20years%20of,the%20EEA I'm afraid you are acting as equally stupid as Blackford there is indeed a National Insurance Fund
⁸https://fullfact.org/economy/money-national-insurance-contributions/On share of National Debt, once again we can look to Scotland where a fairly solid ground has been established on liabilities that is causing major concerns; UK debt share a key concern for Scottish independence. The same would apply to NI. I'm sure there would be a discussion but at worst it would include NI Infrastructure To include Total UK Debt would give ROI claim to GB Assets. A president was set when GB left ROI in 1921 Debt FreeDefence spending I grant you is one area where a comparison with Scotland isn't valid! Scotland is a huge beneficiary of defence spending most critically in supporting ship building on the Clyde as well as the nuclear submarine base in Faslane and the huge naval dockyards in Rosyth. Norther Ireland would gain from a reduction in ongoing defence spending on that basis . Although, Ireland's long standing miserable, and morally bankrupt position on defence might be up for review at some point so their defence spending might increase. in your opinion obviously, but doesn't ROI as a Sovereign Nation get to make its own choices wasn't that what Brexit was all about. As at 2021 ROI was the 6th biggest contributor to 9 different UN Peacekeeping Missions around the World Ireland's GDP is hugely distorted by the presence of the American multinationals it has attracted over the years due to its very low corporation tax and other tricks. It's also a shoogly peg for Ireland as the uS and the EU ae not happy with the situation. For someone that claims to be knowledgeable you don't half show your ignorence of facts. ROI along with practically every other Country in the World signed up to the OECD pledge to keep Corporation Taxes at a minimum 15% from 2023 which will move from its current rate of 12.5% Hardly earth shattering If the EU were so unhappy with ROI Tax Rates it would hardly have elected its Finance Minister Paschal Donohue as President of EuroGroup of Finance MinistersAnyway, I'm sure these realities are why folks in the republic are concerned about the cost of unification. But, I say you head over there and persuade them they are wrong. That it's all sunshine and roses (or shamrocks). Good luck to you. No need for me to expend my charm recent polls show 62% in favour 12% against I'm not saying there wouldn't be a conversation about cost but a certain argument could be made on the merits of economy of scale
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 4, 2022 11:52:31 GMT
I'm not sure it ever will - because of the nature of the division. Most Remainers I know are pragmatists. Remain wasn't a vote for the EU as such as there is a general acceptance that it is flawed and could be better even amongst those who wished to stay a part. Remain was a view that leaving would be immensly disruptive, we did not have the wherewithall to manage the change, and overall we would be worse off so just not worth it. Most Leavers I know - if not out and out ideologists - value leaving in less pragmatic and tangible terms such as sovereignty, control, etc The debate is therefore a mismatch because each side of the division value different things and try to pursuade each other ofteen using factors that the other side of the debate don't really care about. Only when you've had a couple or more generations who've known no different will it begin to settle down. Six years on from the vote it's still a division and a matter of electoral importance -so I see no reason why it won't run for another 20Farage will be licking his lips, that was always the plan to keep him in work......... Probably - the narcisistic windbag doesn't seem to be raising his profile as a climate change denier as he would maybe have hoped. Whither the Alt Right these days? The Richard Tice/Laurence Fox fanboys have been conspicuose by their absence on here recently.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 4, 2022 11:57:04 GMT
Farage will be licking his lips, that was always the plan to keep him in work......... Probably - the narcisistic windbag doesn't seem to be raising his profile as a climate change denier as he would maybe have hoped. Whither the Alt Right these days? The Richard Tice/Laurence Fox fanboys have been conspicuose by their absence on here recently. Maajid Nawaz was becoming a firm favourite too before he moved into batshit crazy conspiracy theories. Grifters the lot of them.......
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 4, 2022 12:06:21 GMT
Farage will be licking his lips, that was always the plan to keep him in work......... Probably - the narcisistic windbag doesn't seem to be raising his profile as a climate change denier as he would maybe have hoped. Whither the Alt Right these days? The Richard Tice/Laurence Fox fanboys have been conspicuose by their absence on here recently. Not all that surprising since Fox managed to out himself as a swastika-appropriating gay-basher recently. He was always going to have to go down the Hatie Katie route to keep the attention and, more importantly, the money rolling in.
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 4, 2022 15:37:48 GMT
Blimey, you don't half post some tosh at times. Im surprised you can say that with a straight face given the nonsense you posted belowOn spending of public money (subvention), the critical factor isn't total cost but cost per head, which as you'll see is very, very high in Northern Ireland. This is, I expect, what is causing the palpitations in the survey referenced ( link). Why on earth would the Per Capita cost be relevant It's the total Cost ROI would have to absorb and I've pointed out how that would be a manageable number once you have stripped away the non recurring costsOn pensions I guess you missed the recent comical debate about pension liabilities sparked by the Lard of the Isles off the cuff foot in mouth moment. Read more about it here; Blackford says independent Scotland will be liable for pensions. Bottom line there is no ongoing obligations for pensions which are paid from the current years tax receipts. There is no "pensions pot" for public pensions - the mistake Blackford made. We agree about Blackford he's an idiot, the rest you are very misinformed
Currently UK is paying a State Pensions to slightly under half a million people residing overseas Many thousands of those reside in ROI The only qualification for entitlement to a UK State Pension is having contributed to NI for 10 years. This policy was not altered after Brexit and there are still reciprocal arrangements with EU Why on Earth would that change. I realise UK Government is acting lawlessly in other areas but it would be a very extreme example in fact theft it it did what your suggesting
www.gov.uk/new-state-pension/living-and-working-overseas#:~:text=Your%20UK%20State%20Pension%20if%20you've%20lived%20or%20worked%20abroad&text=You%20need%2010%20years%20of,the%20EEA I'm afraid you are acting as equally stupid as Blackford there is indeed a National Insurance Fund
⁸https://fullfact.org/economy/money-national-insurance-contributions/On share of National Debt, once again we can look to Scotland where a fairly solid ground has been established on liabilities that is causing major concerns; UK debt share a key concern for Scottish independence. The same would apply to NI. I'm sure there would be a discussion but at worst it would include NI Infrastructure To include Total UK Debt would give ROI claim to GB Assets. A president was set when GB left ROI in 1921 Debt FreeDefence spending I grant you is one area where a comparison with Scotland isn't valid! Scotland is a huge beneficiary of defence spending most critically in supporting ship building on the Clyde as well as the nuclear submarine base in Faslane and the huge naval dockyards in Rosyth. Norther Ireland would gain from a reduction in ongoing defence spending on that basis . Although, Ireland's long standing miserable, and morally bankrupt position on defence might be up for review at some point so their defence spending might increase. in your opinion obviously, but doesn't ROI as a Sovereign Nation get to make its own choices wasn't that what Brexit was all about. As at 2021 ROI was the 6th biggest contributor to 9 different UN Peacekeeping Missions around the World Ireland's GDP is hugely distorted by the presence of the American multinationals it has attracted over the years due to its very low corporation tax and other tricks. It's also a shoogly peg for Ireland as the uS and the EU ae not happy with the situation. For someone that claims to be knowledgeable you don't half show your ignorence of facts. ROI along with practically every other Country in the World signed up to the OECD pledge to keep Corporation Taxes at a minimum 15% from 2023 which will move from its current rate of 12.5% Hardly earth shattering If the EU were so unhappy with ROI Tax Rates it would hardly have elected its Finance Minister Paschal Donohue as President of EuroGroup of Finance MinistersAnyway, I'm sure these realities are why folks in the republic are concerned about the cost of unification. But, I say you head over there and persuade them they are wrong. That it's all sunshine and roses (or shamrocks). Good luck to you. No need for me to expend my charm recent polls show 62% in favour 12% against I'm not saying there wouldn't be a conversation about cost but a certain argument could be made on the merits of economy of scale
I agree there’s an argument for both sides. A weak one, like your making, and a reasonable one, like I’m making.
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Post by wannabee on Jul 4, 2022 16:07:00 GMT
I agree there’s an argument for both sides. A weak one, like your making, and a reasonable one, like I’m making.
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 4, 2022 16:10:08 GMT
I agree there’s an argument for both sides. A weak one, like your making, and a reasonable one, like I’m making. There certainly is something of the Sam Allardyce about you.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 4, 2022 16:34:53 GMT
Probably - the narcisistic windbag doesn't seem to be raising his profile as a climate change denier as he would maybe have hoped. Whither the Alt Right these days? The Richard Tice/Laurence Fox fanboys have been conspicuose by their absence on here recently. Not all that surprising since Fox managed to out himself as a swastika-appropriating gay-basher recently. He was always going to have to go down the Hatie Katie route to keep the attention and, more importantly, the money rolling in. Yeah I saw that. Be provocative and obnoxious and then when you get tbe reaction you were looking for play the victim. You wouldn't think 'Spoiled Brat' was a good look any place any time but I guess one only has to look at Trump to see why it has currency.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 4, 2022 16:44:09 GMT
Not all that surprising since Fox managed to out himself as a swastika-appropriating gay-basher recently. He was always going to have to go down the Hatie Katie route to keep the attention and, more importantly, the money rolling in. Yeah I saw that. Be provocative and obnoxious and then when you get tbe reaction you were looking for play the victim. You wouldn't think 'Spoiled Brat' was a good look any place any time but I guess one only has to look at Trump to see why it has currency. I guess now Stephen Yaxley-Lennon has been convicted numerous times and bankrupted himself over various stupid libel suits, there is a vacancy in the right-wing, .........phobic, victimised truth-speaker role.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Jul 4, 2022 16:52:53 GMT
Yeah I saw that. Be provocative and obnoxious and then when you get tbe reaction you were looking for play the victim. You wouldn't think 'Spoiled Brat' was a good look any place any time but I guess one only has to look at Trump to see why it has currency. I guess now Stephen Yaxley-Lennon has been convicted numerous times and bankrupted himself over various stupid libel suits, there is a vacancy in the right-wing, .........phobic, victimised truth-speaker role. Not sure pretty boy Lozza would survive prison quite as effortlessly as Tommy appears to. Might have to rethink some if those 'Pride' comments!
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Post by wannabee on Jul 4, 2022 16:59:02 GMT
There certainly is something of the Sam Allardyce about you. Your a more voracious nit picker than a Japanese Monkey 🐒
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 4, 2022 17:00:23 GMT
There certainly is something of the Sam Allardyce about you. Your a more voracious nit picker than a Japanese Monkey 🐒 You’re.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 4, 2022 17:21:36 GMT
I agree there’s an argument for both sides. A weak one, like your making, and a reasonable one, like I’m making.
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 4, 2022 18:25:02 GMT
I agree there’s an argument for both sides. A weak one, like your making, and a reasonable one, like I’m making. you’re
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Post by prestwichpotter on Jul 4, 2022 19:23:55 GMT
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Post by muggleton on Jul 4, 2022 19:29:30 GMT
Hmmm, I thought we were all supposed to be looking forward, pulling together to make Brexit work for everyone, embracing the opportunities Brexit offers etc Funny how that's not the case when it's said by someone you don't generally support I'm not sure it ever will - because of the nature of the division. Most Remainers I know are pragmatists. Remain wasn't a vote for the EU as such as there is a general acceptance that it is flawed and could be better even amongst those who wished to stay a part. Remain was a view that leaving would be immensly disruptive, we did not have the wherewithall to manage the change, and overall we would be worse off so just not worth it. Most Leavers I know - if not out and out ideologists - value leaving in less pragmatic and tangible terms such as sovereignty, control, etc The debate is therefore a mismatch because each side of the division value different things and try to pursuade each other ofteen using factors that the other side of the debate don't really care about. Only when you've had a couple or more generations who've known no different will it begin to settle down. Six years on from the vote it's still a division and a matter of electoral importance -so I see no reason why it won't run for another 20 I know several Leave voters who don't normally vote in local and general elections, and no Remain voters who that's the case for. Would be interested in any studies that showed whether my anecdotal experience is an anomaly. They were motivated by a range of factors, and bought into the nationalistic jingoism in a way I found interesting (and we argued at length over in the run-up to the vote). I've never discussed Brexit eith them since the vote, as life's too short, but I'm not being unkind in saying they didn't give a huge degree of thought to the implications of the decision. That it'll be politically impossible for a generation to overturn a decision they made on a whim is not a good place for a country to be. Brexit had to happen, given the outcome of the referendum. Having to tip-toe round the fact it was a bad idea will wear increasingly thin as the years pass and the evidence mounts.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 6, 2022 9:12:12 GMT
There are constant refences on the "government shambles" thread to Brexit. I endorse the criticism of the government and all politicians for that matter, but wish to point out the reality that since Brexit this country has performed better economically than most of the other G7 countries, despite the depth of recession that the pandemic caused. In my experience, this countries economic performance is in spite of what politicians do, not because of. It will be some time before I do my next quarterly review, (monthly statistics are highly erroneous and just estimates), my last quarterly review is on page 1,464. This report was released last month comparing UK GDP with other countries since before the pandemic: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/(It should be noted that 2022 quarter 1 was hardly affected by the war in Ukraine which will impact negatively on the forecasts in the report.)
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jul 6, 2022 11:20:41 GMT
There are constant refences on the "government shambles" thread to Brexit. I endorse the criticism of the government and all politicians for that matter, but wish to point out the reality that since Brexit this country has performed better economically than most of the other G7 countries, despite the depth of recession that the pandemic caused. In my experience, this countries economic performance is in spite of what politicians do, not because of. It will be some time before I do my next quarterly review, (monthly statistics are highly erroneous and just estimates), my last quarterly review is on page 1,464. This report was released last month comparing UK GDP with other countries since before the pandemic: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/(It should be noted that 2022 quarter 1 was hardly affected by the war in Ukraine which will impact negatively on the forecasts in the report.) With all due respect what do your quarterly report achieve to change reality? When the Bank of England, economic analysts and business leaders are increasingly identifying Brexit as a factor dragging down the current and future performance of the UK economy that is enough for most people.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 6, 2022 13:19:28 GMT
There are constant refences on the "government shambles" thread to Brexit. I endorse the criticism of the government and all politicians for that matter, but wish to point out the reality that since Brexit this country has performed better economically than most of the other G7 countries, despite the depth of recession that the pandemic caused. In my experience, this countries economic performance is in spite of what politicians do, not because of. It will be some time before I do my next quarterly review, (monthly statistics are highly erroneous and just estimates), my last quarterly review is on page 1,464. This report was released last month comparing UK GDP with other countries since before the pandemic: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/(It should be noted that 2022 quarter 1 was hardly affected by the war in Ukraine which will impact negatively on the forecasts in the report.) With all due respect what do your quarterly report achieve to change reality? When the Bank of England, economic analysts and business leaders are increasingly identifying Brexit as a factor dragging down the current and future performance of the UK economy that is enough for most people. My reports are reality, not trying to change reality. They are reporting actual performances of the UK and other economies, since the UK left the EU. Of course it will always be the case that there will be those who say the UK would have performed better had we remained in the EU. Maybe if the UK had stayed in the EU, UK performance would be as good as Canada and USA have been since 2019? If Brexit is dragging down the UK performance, what is "dragging down" France's, Italy's, and Germany's GDP performance?
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Jul 6, 2022 16:41:28 GMT
With all due respect what do your quarterly report achieve to change reality? When the Bank of England, economic analysts and business leaders are increasingly identifying Brexit as a factor dragging down the current and future performance of the UK economy that is enough for most people. My reports are reality, not trying to change reality. They are reporting actual performances of the UK and other economies, since the UK left the EU. Of course it will always be the case that there will be those who say the UK would have performed better had we remained in the EU. Maybe if the UK had stayed in the EU, UK performance would be as good as Canada and USA have been since 2019? If Brexit is dragging down the UK performance, what is "dragging down" France's, Italy's, and Germany's GDP performance? I have never claimed that the global factors are not the overwhelming factors, but as I said before, increasingly, the Bank of England, economic analysts and business leaders are identifying Brexit as a factor dragging down the current and future performance of the UK economy.
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Post by wannabee on Jul 6, 2022 21:14:41 GMT
There are constant refences on the "government shambles" thread to Brexit. I endorse the criticism of the government and all politicians for that matter, but wish to point out the reality that since Brexit this country has performed better economically than most of the other G7 countries, despite the depth of recession that the pandemic caused. In my experience, this countries economic performance is in spite of what politicians do, not because of. It will be some time before I do my next quarterly review, (monthly statistics are highly erroneous and just estimates), my last quarterly review is on page 1,464. This report was released last month comparing UK GDP with other countries since before the pandemic: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/(It should be noted that 2022 quarter 1 was hardly affected by the war in Ukraine which will impact negatively on the forecasts in the report.) You can not Divorce Brexit from the UK Government that brought us this Shambles they are inextricably mixed Are you suggesting "Brexit is Done" when it is in the process of ripping up the Withdrawal Agreement it only recently signed Government's job is to create an environment conducive to business Creating a potential Trade War with EU is hardly compatible with that objective You compare UK within G7 which is one measure but in the link you provided EU outperformed UK and that despite Germany performing worst of G7 due mainly to interruption to Trade with China Of course there are International factors affecting many Countries Oli, Inflation etc but the fundamentals in UK are particulalry troubling which is why OECD is forecasting UK to be 19th of G20 in GDP Growth ONS began issuing Monthly Statistics in 2018 in the interests of "Higher Quality and Quicker" They show GDP retraction in March of -0.1% and -0.3% in April and are predicting recession The Trade Deficit is the worst since 1996 Inflation is heading for double digits Borrowing at 95% of GDP is alarming and a besieged PM seems intent on cutting Taxes to save his arse which would be financed by more borrowings Interest Rates are rising to quell Inflation and will go even higher if Taxes are cut This will reduce further industries appetite for investment doing nothing for productivity
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Post by muggleton on Jul 7, 2022 20:21:43 GMT
Anyone coming to the belated realisation that the inveterate liar and worst PM of our lifetimes has self-servingly lied to the country about everything *except Brexit* is so close to an epiphany I have every confidence they'll get there.
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Post by numpty40 on Jul 7, 2022 20:42:35 GMT
The remain supporters will be feeling happy tonight. It's taken 6 years, enjoy it.
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Post by xchpotter on Jul 7, 2022 22:19:41 GMT
The remain supporters will be feeling happy tonight. It's taken 6 years, enjoy it. Indeed. Interesting to see some of the comments from the likes of Verhofstadt, Barnier and the puppets in Ireland. Makes you think they didn’t like someone who wouldn’t comply with their every wish. I’m sure they will be rooting for a subservient replacement.
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Post by 4372 on Jul 7, 2022 22:35:17 GMT
The remain supporters will be feeling happy tonight. It's taken 6 years, enjoy it. Why?
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Post by RipRoaringPotter on Jul 7, 2022 22:41:30 GMT
The remain supporters will be feeling happy tonight. It's taken 6 years, enjoy it. Indeed. Interesting to see some of the comments from the likes of Verhofstadt, Barnier and the puppets in Ireland. Makes you think they didn’t like someone who wouldn’t comply with their every wish. I’m sure they will be rooting for a subservient replacement. "People see me, and they see the suit, and they go: "you're not fooling anyone", they know I'm rock and roll through and through. But you know that old thing, live fast, die young? Not my way. Live fast, sure, live too bloody fast sometimes, but die young? Die old. That's the way- not orthodox, I don't live by "the rules" you know. And if there's one other person who's influenced me in that way I think, someone who is a maverick, someone who does that to the system, then, it's Ian Botham. Because Beefy will happily say "that's what I think of your selection policy, yes I've hit the odd copper, yes I've enjoyed the old dooby, but will you piss off and leave me alone, I'm walking to John O'Groats for some spastics."
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Post by thevoid on Jul 8, 2022 5:53:29 GMT
The remain supporters will be feeling happy tonight. It's taken 6 years, enjoy it. They're like an ex who can't let go
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 8, 2022 6:22:40 GMT
The remain supporters will be feeling happy tonight. It's taken 6 years, enjoy it. Indeed. Interesting to see some of the comments from the likes of Verhofstadt, Barnier and the puppets in Ireland. Makes you think they didn’t like someone who wouldn’t comply with their every wish. I’m sure they will be rooting for a subservient replacement. Don’t worry. Keir Starmer is a Brexiteer now. He’ll make sure the Government doesn’t falter in its resolve. His forensic scrutiny at PMQs of whoever takes over from Johnson will ensure Britain does not fold under the pressure of the Brussels eurocrats.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 8, 2022 8:03:03 GMT
Anyone coming to the belated realisation that the inveterate liar and worst PM of our lifetimes has self-servingly lied to the country about everything *except Brexit* is so close to an epiphany I have every confidence they'll get there. Yep. He was just a self-serving, lying, opportunist, social climber with ambitions way above ability and confidence way above competence who would say and do anything purely for his own benefit, but, as head of the Leave campaign, it was all about what was best for Britain, sure enough
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Post by foster on Jul 8, 2022 8:32:27 GMT
The remain supporters will be feeling happy tonight. It's taken 6 years, enjoy it. They're like an ex who can't let go You're sounding like Oggy now mate.
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