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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Sept 17, 2021 14:00:53 GMT
It was explained on the radio a couple of weeks ago how inward investment in plant etc in the UK grew for 18 consecutive years but has fallen every year since 2016 (can't recall what happened then) . This is not to be confused with inward 'investment' with overseas companies coming in and buying up UK firms (such as, but excluding Morrisons) which is booming. You got a link for that. Not saying it’s not right. I’d like to have a read because it sounds interesting. No link I'm afraid -it was on the business section 06:15-06:30 of the Today programme I think around 3-3.5 weeks back. I was surprised when I heard it because it was not something I'd heard before.....
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Post by Gob Bluth on Sept 17, 2021 14:05:35 GMT
As usual the headlines in anti Brexit media purvey one stark message, but when you look a little deeper into the facts all is not what it might first appear. Firstly, in the BBC article on the news it says: " One of the main problems Marks & Spencer was facing in France was post-Brexit bureaucracy, a spokesman said." So what are the other problems that M & S facing? Secondly M & S's partner, who operate the shops being closed, mainly operate Paris High Street shops. M & S have closed shops in France in the past and actually left the country in 2001, then reopened in Paris in 2011. I would suggest their profit margins were very slim, especially since the drop in business in high streets, and due to the pandemic, people working from home, people not "going to town" to shop, etc. We have seen a whole host of companies closing the high street outlets. And with the anti British mouthing of the French President in the last year or two I imagine a lot of people have been put off buying British. Thirdly, M & S's other French partner, Lagardere Travel Retail, who operate M&S stores in French airports, railway and Metro stations, are unaffected by this decision. That suggests to me the decision to close stores is not so much because of the difficulty in supplying, but more a decision based on the location of stores and their profitability. Fourthly, M & S are not operating French shops themselves but through a partnership which will reduce the financial return to M & S. I have no doubt the difficulty in supplying stores in France due to the EU importation rules* to protect EU business* will have contributed to the decision by M & S to close some of their stores. I am equally sure that there are other factors affecting the decision on which stores they have chosen to close. In May 2018 M & S announced plans to close plans to close 100 UK stores by 2022. In 2019 M&S announced that 25 UK food stores will close or relocate by April 2024, when it revised its plans to 120 clothing store closures by April 2024. Then the world changed due to the pandemic and the business took another hammering due to lockdowns, people not working in town centres due to working from home, which will continue to some degree, and people visiting town centres less. Having worked for the French for 7 years and having had a French boss in Paris, I visited innumerable times, I know it would not take much to persuade a French business to work from home! The strikes on the Metro being one reason. Is it the least bit surprising M & S have decided to close some of its French high street outlets? Is it the least bit surprising that Brexit is quoted as one of the reasons? Is it at all surprising the anti Brexit media use the opportunity to have banner headlines citing Brexit? * The root cause is the EU customs union that puts up a barrier to competition from outside the EU. That fosters inefficiency and slow growth. The EU implements over 13,000 tariffs on imported goods. Food prices vary enormously throughout the world but on average due to the protectionist CAP and importation rules, EU food prices are 15 to 20% higher than the rest of the world. It is only high prices that prompted M & S to ever open stores in France. Europe is now the second slowest growing continental economy in the world (Antarctica is slowest!). Thatcher warned Brussels in 1988 that praising free trade internally, while neglecting it externally, would be a huge mistake, when she said “ Europe never would have prospered and never will prosper as a narrow-minded, inward-looking club”. I seem to remember that remainers claimed that Britain would have no sandwiches after Brexit as all the fresh produce came form the EU. Now M&S are claiming they're closing the stores because it is "struggling to stock the stores with fresh & chilled products" - because of Brexit. Strange isn't it that two claims 180° apart are both blamed on Brexit. What next for the result of Brexit? Deforestation? Global Warming? Volcanic Eruptions? More dog poo on the pavement? I'm beginning to think I might have made a mistake.
We've gone from having open borders with members of the EU meaning products could low freely to not. This is what the problem is. I tend to think Brexiters would be ok with products moving freely but the EU wanted to protect their single market. Conversely free trade agreements was seen as a selling point to Brexit. Maybe M&S should bundle the sandwiches up and drive them to Australia or Japan.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Sept 17, 2021 14:36:40 GMT
True, but it's also quite entertaining watching someone who "backs up their posts with sources and facts" squirming to deny the same when the story isn't one that shows Brexit in a very good light! I have no reason the "squirm". I have never denied that leaving the EU would bring its problems for some people. It is remainers and the authors of "project fear" who are squirming and scratching around for any problem to be attributable to Brexit and still making false doom and gloom predictions. What happened to remainers prediction, on the economy, unemployment, house prices, recession, etc.? The value of the £ did dip slightly which actually bosted exports to record levels pre pandemic and has been very stable since Brexit. Inward investment did slow down in 2018 and 2019, but that was due to the impotent May government and those trying to frustrate Brexit, such as second referendum campaign, the Speaker's antics, and the Lords. As soon as Brexit was sorted venture capital investment has jumped to record levels, the highest in Europe. sifted.eu/articles/uk-record-tech-investment-2020/Truss has successfully rolled over all existing EU trade deals which remainers said the UK was too small and weak to do. All (bar 1, > 60 agreed) were done by the end of the transition period, so trade with RoW continued seamlessly bar pandemic issues. The Japan deal has improved terms, and Canada have agreed to negotiate an improved deal. Incidentally lots of EU countries have not ratified the EU - Canada trade deal terms. Canada will be as cheesed off with the EU as Australia are, who were cheesed off by the refusal to send vaccine at one point. Remainers said it would take up to a decade for the UK to negotiate new trade deals. We already have an Australian one, and more are in the pipeline. Truss has been determined to boost trade with the Pacific area where most world future GDP growth will take place. The government are predicting that by 2030, three of the four largest economies in the world will be in the Indo-Pacific region, with the region set to account for 56% of global GDP growth and 44% of global import demand growth over the next 30 years. India will be the largest population on the planet and its economy expanding rapidly. India does not do trade deals, but is now seeking a trade deal with the UK and Australia to act as a check on Chinese influence in the area and the rest of the world. No, it is remainers that are squirming. So that's fishermen, farmers, Northern Ireland, businesses which deal with Europe, people who care about environmental standards, supply chain managers....that list of "some people" seems to be expanding pretty regularly... The predictions are lovely sounding, the government makes lots of great sounding predictions, the realities somewhat different.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Sept 17, 2021 21:28:10 GMT
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Post by muggleton on Sept 21, 2021 6:56:30 GMT
Is Brexit going better/worse than anyone expected at this stage?
I was always against it, but assumed there was some semblance of a plan and we'd ultimately be OK. Things are significantly worse than I expected at this stage.
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Post by henry on Sept 21, 2021 7:09:15 GMT
Is Brexit going better/worse than anyone expected at this stage? I was always against it, but assumed there was some semblance of a plan and we'd ultimately be OK. Things are significantly worse than I expected at this stage. It’s disappointing that within a year there’s a massive tax hike, despite being told leaving would save the UK billions of pounds every year. Labour shortages and record numbers of Economic migrants being shoo’d out of France. Everything’s a bit shit at the moment.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 21, 2021 7:29:33 GMT
“Project fear” didn’t go far enough did it.
What a fucking shitshow.
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Post by wagsastokie on Sept 21, 2021 7:36:54 GMT
Is Brexit going better/worse than anyone expected at this stage? I was always against it, but assumed there was some semblance of a plan and we'd ultimately be OK. Things are significantly worse than I expected at this stage. Definitely worse We haven’t gone far enough We should of told the Eu to fuck off on June the 24th straight after the referendum
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Post by wagsastokie on Sept 21, 2021 7:46:33 GMT
😁😁🥱 Fuck me you drag up some absolute shite at times Maybe someone should mention to the agenda driven idiot in the video that there’s been a global pandemic since the referendum result Container shipping rates only started increase in sept/oct 2020 Over four years from the referendum and eight moths from Johnson almost delivering the true freedom that the British public voted for
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Post by followyoudown on Sept 21, 2021 8:16:06 GMT
Is Brexit going better/worse than anyone expected at this stage? I was always against it, but assumed there was some semblance of a plan and we'd ultimately be OK. Things are significantly worse than I expected at this stage. It’s disappointing that within a year there’s a massive tax hike, despite being told leaving would save the UK billions of pounds every year. Labour shortages and record numbers of Economic migrants being shoo’d out of France. Everything’s a bit shit at the moment. Why do people feel the need to make stuff up ? It was never said leaving would save billions of pounds a year it actually said on a bus we send £350m a week to the EU lets fund the nhs instead or something like that, no mention of saving the money ever surprised the bus hasn't been mentioned on the previous 1407 pages.......
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Post by followyoudown on Sept 21, 2021 8:22:06 GMT
“Project fear” didn’t go far enough did it. What a fucking shitshow. Project Yellowhammer proving so unerringly inaccurate Neil Ferguson must have wrote it not really sure what all the bedwetting is over apart from some people still not being able to accept we have the EU.
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Post by Clayton Wood on Sept 21, 2021 8:41:18 GMT
I don't see how anyone can unravel the Covid/Brexit effect. The July Covid government support cost, according to the National Audit Office, is £372bn. That's without the knock on effects such as restarting the world economy's effect on energy prices etc. The 'yes' vote budget deficit forecast (that never happened) was £7bn.
The Covid costs (financial, social, health etc) will make Brexit equivalent to pissing in the ocean (cost or windfall).
Insert Huddysrightbollock stock photo of pandemic driven empty shelves [here].
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Sept 21, 2021 8:42:12 GMT
😁😁🥱 Fuck me you drag up some absolute shite at times Maybe someone should mention to the agenda driven idiot in the video that there’s been a global pandemic since the referendum result Container shipping rates only started increase in sept/oct 2020 Over four years from the referendum and eight moths from Johnson almost delivering the true freedom that the British public voted for There are plenty more out there mate, this situation will only get worse. I think deep down you know it. What do you mean by "true freedom" by the way?
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Post by henry on Sept 21, 2021 8:42:57 GMT
It’s disappointing that within a year there’s a massive tax hike, despite being told leaving would save the UK billions of pounds every year. Labour shortages and record numbers of Economic migrants being shoo’d out of France. Everything’s a bit shit at the moment. Why do people feel the need to make stuff up ? It was never said leaving would save billions of pounds a year it actually said on a bus we send £350m a week to the EU lets fund the nhs instead or something like that, no mention of saving the money ever surprised the bus hasn't been mentioned on the previous 1407 pages....... Not sure what i have said is made up www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson-idUSKBN1F50T3"But in the interview with the Guardian newspaper, Johnson said the UK’s weekly gross contribution to the EU would rise to 438 million pounds by the time Britain left the bloc. “There was an error on the side of the bus,” Johnson said. “We grossly underestimated the sum over which we would be able to take back control. As and when the cash becomes available – and it won’t until we leave – the NHS should be at the very top of the list.” The bloke a serial liar.
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Post by followyoudown on Sept 21, 2021 8:46:27 GMT
Why do people feel the need to make stuff up ? It was never said leaving would save billions of pounds a year it actually said on a bus we send £350m a week to the EU lets fund the nhs instead or something like that, no mention of saving the money ever surprised the bus hasn't been mentioned on the previous 1407 pages....... Not sure what i have said is made up www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson-idUSKBN1F50T3"But in the interview with the Guardian newspaper, Johnson said the UK’s weekly gross contribution to the EU would rise to 438 million pounds by the time Britain left the bloc. “There was an error on the side of the bus,” Johnson said. “We grossly underestimated the sum over which we would be able to take back control. As and when the cash becomes available – and it won’t until we leave – the NHS should be at the very top of the list.” The bloke a serial liar. It is made up the talk was of saving on paying money to the EU (thats happened) and spending it on other things in the UK, even your article says that....
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Post by Kilo on Sept 21, 2021 9:13:03 GMT
Not sure what i have said is made up www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-johnson-idUSKBN1F50T3"But in the interview with the Guardian newspaper, Johnson said the UK’s weekly gross contribution to the EU would rise to 438 million pounds by the time Britain left the bloc. “There was an error on the side of the bus,” Johnson said. “We grossly underestimated the sum over which we would be able to take back control. As and when the cash becomes available – and it won’t until we leave – the NHS should be at the very top of the list.” The bloke a serial liar. It is made up the talk was of saving on paying money to the EU (thats happened) and spending it on other things in the UK, even your article says that.... I stopped reading the 5 year old article by an unamed person as soon as I got to the bit when he/she misquoted what it said on the bus. I also watched Huddy's video where the woman stated they don't bother with paperwork which might explain why she's having so many problems getting her fish through customs. It's over FIVE years since we voted and some people are still peddling the arguments against leaving. If they were making arguments about how we could successfully re-join, I'd listen to them but I've given up listening to the remainiacs as the last 1300 pages have become a bit repetitive.
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Post by thevoid on Sept 21, 2021 9:21:12 GMT
It is made up the talk was of saving on paying money to the EU (thats happened) and spending it on other things in the UK, even your article says that.... I stopped reading the 5 year old article by an unamed person as soon as I got to the bit when he/she misquoted what it said on the bus. I also watched Huddy's video where the woman stated they don't bother with paperwork which might explain why she's having so many problems getting her fish through customs. It's over FIVE years since we voted and some people are still peddling the arguments against leaving. If they were making arguments about how we could successfully re-join, I'd listen to them but I've given up listening to the remainiacs as the last 1300 pages have become a bit repetitive. We're not rejoining anyway so it's all a load of huffing and puffing over nothing. Some people need to find something more constructive to do with their days rather than wallowing in negativity about things beyond their control 😆
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Post by followyoudown on Sept 21, 2021 9:22:19 GMT
It is made up the talk was of saving on paying money to the EU (thats happened) and spending it on other things in the UK, even your article says that.... I stopped reading the 5 year old article by an unamed person as soon as I got to the bit when he/she misquoted what it said on the bus. I also watched Huddy's video where the woman stated they don't bother with paperwork which might explain why she's having so many problems getting her fish through customs. It's over FIVE years since we voted and some people are still peddling the arguments against leaving. If they were making arguments about how we could successfully re-join, I'd listen to them but I've given up listening to the remainiacs as the last 1300 pages have become a bit repetitive. The area where the government and civil service failed to some extent is to not communicate more what the likely third party rules / restrictions were likely to be for each industry as there were mostly all out there, the time should have been spent on this instead of all the oh so clever stuff Grieve, Benn and Bercow tried to stop the vote being implemented. That said firms should also have carried out impact assessments / contingency plans for deal or no deal, the company I am at did this, fail to prepare, prepare to fail.
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Post by Kilo on Sept 21, 2021 9:31:34 GMT
I stopped reading the 5 year old article by an unamed person as soon as I got to the bit when he/she misquoted what it said on the bus. I also watched Huddy's video where the woman stated they don't bother with paperwork which might explain why she's having so many problems getting her fish through customs. It's over FIVE years since we voted and some people are still peddling the arguments against leaving. If they were making arguments about how we could successfully re-join, I'd listen to them but I've given up listening to the remainiacs as the last 1300 pages have become a bit repetitive. We're not rejoining anyway so it's all a load of huffing and puffing over nothing. Some people need to find something more constructive to do with their days rather than wallowing in negativity about things beyond their control 😆 I'd vote to re-join if the arguments were strong enough but from what I've seen and read both before we left and since makes me think it's going to be really tough for anyone who believes the current EU is something worth joining to find anywhere near enough positives to swing me back again. I've never trusted the French and the way they've behaved in not only Brexit but also with AUKUS is embarrasing. Macron needs the back of his bare legs smacking like the naughty little boy that he is.
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 21, 2021 9:39:06 GMT
Is Brexit going better/worse than anyone expected at this stage? I was always against it, but assumed there was some semblance of a plan and we'd ultimately be OK. Things are significantly worse than I expected at this stage.
You say thinks are significantly worse but you were against Brexit. There have certainly been things not go well such as Northern Ireland and fishing, but surely things are a lot better than forecast by the Remainers project fear in 2016. It is obviously difficult to know the true effects because of the pandemic, which has hugely disrupted the world economy. Some of that disruption has yet to reveal itself, for example the present shortage of gas in Europe due to lack of maintenance during the height of the pandemic. Forecasts of economic collapse, high unemployment, drop in house prices, etc. have all proved to be untrue. Trade is higher today, despite the pandemic, than at the time of the referendum, exports to the EU are higher today than before the before Brexit but not as high as pre pandemic, employment is at record level, but self employment has not yet recovered to pre pandemic levels. There are certainly sectors of the economy that have suffered such as fishing, some food exports to the EU, and above all Northern Ireland, but these ironically are due to the very reason we left the EU to break out of the very tight customs/red tape rules of the EU that we were subject to as members. Now we can boost our trade with the rest of the world which represents over 80% of the world economy. That will clearly take time, especially as much of the world is still in the grip of the pandemic. On trade, the doom and gloom predictions of Remainers were that we would not be able to negotiate as good a deals as the EU because we were "a small nation" and it would take many years to negotiate new deals, presumably based on the snail's pace the EU make deals. The reality is that all the EU deals with other nations have been rolled over, an improved deal with Japan, an agreement for a new improved deal with Canada, a new deal with Australia, and deals in the pipeline. The only blot on trade is the USA , where Biden is anti-British on trade, but he will soon be gone. It is obviously going to take time to extract ourselves out of decades of EU regulations. Replacing CAP will take years. Remainers predicted a labour shortage if we left the EU and have been proven correct, but the severity of the problem is more due to the pandemic than Brexit. In particular the driver shortage that is impacting on deliveries has been a problem waiting to break for years and made worse by tax changes, DVLA strike, pandemic stopping training and testing, etc. The forecast: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564The reality: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-payrolled-employment-rises-by-record-241000-august-2021-09-14/There has never been a better time in our history to get a job with a record 1 million vacancies. The reality is it's tough if you are trying to sell the EU cheese or shellfish, but: www.cityam.com/uk-eu-monthly-exports-again-above-pre-brexit-2020-levels/Of course there are lots of economic "experts" writing papers to say things are worse than they would have been had we stayed in the EU, which the Guardian and Independent seize on and headline. But that is just theory. M & S announce they plan to shut 11 stores in France, which is leaped on with glee by Remainers when we have been shutting high street shops in thousands in the UK for many years. The world moves on. If we had stayed in the EU with Cameron still in charge we may have signed up to the EU vaccine procurement programme; what a disaster that would have been for us! Has the UK "lost it's place at the world table" not being in the EU? I would say just the opposite has happened. By 2050 the EU will represent less than 10% of the world economy with China (20%), India, and Indonesia being among the very biggest economies. The UK will still be just in the top 10 but only Germany will be with us.
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Post by muggleton on Sept 21, 2021 10:13:42 GMT
Is Brexit going better/worse than anyone expected at this stage? I was always against it, but assumed there was some semblance of a plan and we'd ultimately be OK. Things are significantly worse than I expected at this stage. Definitely worse We haven’t gone far enough We should of told the Eu to fuck off on June the 24th straight after the referendum We didn't though, did we? So not much use crying about it 5 years later.
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Post by wagsastokie on Sept 21, 2021 10:19:20 GMT
😁😁🥱 Fuck me you drag up some absolute shite at times Maybe someone should mention to the agenda driven idiot in the video that there’s been a global pandemic since the referendum result Container shipping rates only started increase in sept/oct 2020 Over four years from the referendum and eight moths from Johnson almost delivering the true freedom that the British public voted for There are plenty more out there mate, this situation will only get worse. I think deep down you know it. What do you mean by "true freedom" by the way? Personally I think it will get slightly worse Before it gets considerably better It was never going to be sunshine all the way and anyone who thought it would needed to give there head a wobble True freedom for me would of been to have left with a no deal brexit straight after the referendum Regaining control of fishing etc And no Northern Ireland protocol What worries me the most about brexit is the lack of will from all political parties to grab the possibilities of brexit Gas Water Electric Should all be privatised and run as non profit making There should be incentives for companies to return manufacturing to this country
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Post by wagsastokie on Sept 21, 2021 10:23:31 GMT
Definitely worse We haven’t gone far enough We should of told the Eu to fuck off on June the 24th straight after the referendum We didn't though, did we? So not much use crying about it 5 years later. Oh I’m not crying about it I unlike a considerable amount of remainers am prepared to make the best of it regardless of not quite getting the result I thought I was voting for
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Post by muggleton on Sept 21, 2021 10:29:21 GMT
Is Brexit going better/worse than anyone expected at this stage? I was always against it, but assumed there was some semblance of a plan and we'd ultimately be OK. Things are significantly worse than I expected at this stage.
You say thinks are significantly worse but you were against Brexit. There have certainly been things not go well such as Northern Ireland and fishing, but surely things are a lot better than forecast by the Remainers project fear in 2016. It is obviously difficult to know the true effects because of the pandemic, which has hugely disrupted the world economy. Some of that disruption has yet to reveal itself, for example the present shortage of gas in Europe due to lack of maintenance during the height of the pandemic. Forecasts of economic collapse, high unemployment, drop in house prices, etc. have all proved to be untrue. Trade is higher today, despite the pandemic, than at the time of the referendum, exports to the EU are higher today than before the before Brexit but not as high as pre pandemic, employment is at record level, but self employment has not yet recovered to pre pandemic levels. There are certainly sectors of the economy that have suffered such as fishing, some food exports to the EU, and above all Northern Ireland, but these ironically are due to the very reason we left the EU to break out of the very tight customs/red tape rules of the EU that we were subject to as members. Now we can boost our trade with the rest of the world which represents over 80% of the world economy. That will clearly take time, especially as much of the world is still in the grip of the pandemic. On trade, the doom and gloom predictions of Remainers were that we would not be able to negotiate as good a deals as the EU because we were "a small nation" and it would take many years to negotiate new deals, presumably based on the snail's pace the EU make deals. The reality is that all the EU deals with other nations have been rolled over, an improved deal with Japan, an agreement for a new improved deal with Canada, a new deal with Australia, and deals in the pipeline. The only blot on trade is the USA , where Biden is anti-British on trade, but he will soon be gone. It is obviously going to take time to extract ourselves out of decades of EU regulations. Replacing CAP will take years. Remainers predicted a labour shortage if we left the EU and have been proven correct, but the severity of the problem is more due to the pandemic than Brexit. In particular the driver shortage that is impacting on deliveries has been a problem waiting to break for years and made worse by tax changes, DVLA strike, pandemic stopping training and testing, etc. The forecast: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564The reality: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-payrolled-employment-rises-by-record-241000-august-2021-09-14/There has never been a better time in our history to get a job with a record 1 million vacancies. The reality is it's tough if you are trying to sell the EU cheese or shellfish, but: www.cityam.com/uk-eu-monthly-exports-again-above-pre-brexit-2020-levels/Of course there are lots of economic "experts" writing papers to say things are worse than they would have been had we stayed in the EU, which the Guardian and Independent seize on and headline. But that is just theory. M & S announce they plan to shut 11 stores in France, which is leaped on with glee by Remainers when we have been shutting high street shops in thousands in the UK for many years. The world moves on. If we had stayed in the EU with Cameron still in charge we may have signed up to the EU vaccine procurement programme; what a disaster that would have been for us! Has the UK "lost it's place at the world table" not being in the EU? I would say just the opposite has happened. By 2050 the EU will represent less than 10% of the world economy with China (20%), India, and Indonesia being among the very biggest economies. The UK will still be just in the top 10 but only Germany will be with us. I'm still not clear after reading all that whether Brexit is going better or worse than you expected. Not what some caricature Remainers predicted, but what you as an individual expected. 5 years on from the Referendum things are much worse than I expected. For all the bluster, the UK was demonstrably unprepared for Brexit, used the potential preparation time abysmally, then chose to do it in the middle of a pandemic. So is where we are today better, worse or about the same as you expected in June 2016?
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Post by muggleton on Sept 21, 2021 10:33:59 GMT
We didn't though, did we? So not much use crying about it 5 years later. Oh I’m not crying about it I unlike a considerable amount of remainers am prepared to make the best of it regardless of not quite getting the result I thought I was voting for Do you actually know anyone on any side who isn't trying to make the best of things? It's rare to meet someone in real life who isn't trying to get on, let alone actively sabotaging their life on the back of a 5 year old vote.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Sept 21, 2021 11:41:38 GMT
There are plenty more out there mate, this situation will only get worse. I think deep down you know it. What do you mean by "true freedom" by the way? Personally I think it will get slightly worse Before it gets considerably better It was never going to be sunshine all the way and anyone who thought it would needed to give there head a wobble True freedom for me would of been to have left with a no deal brexit straight after the referendum Regaining control of fishing etc And no Northern Ireland protocol What worries me the most about brexit is the lack of will from all political parties to grab the possibilities of brexit Gas Water Electric Should all be privatised and run as non profit making There should be incentives for companies to return manufacturing to this country We were told there would be no change, let's not pretend that we weren't lied to mate.
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Post by wagsastokie on Sept 21, 2021 11:53:59 GMT
Personally I think it will get slightly worse Before it gets considerably better It was never going to be sunshine all the way and anyone who thought it would needed to give there head a wobble True freedom for me would of been to have left with a no deal brexit straight after the referendum Regaining control of fishing etc And no Northern Ireland protocol What worries me the most about brexit is the lack of will from all political parties to grab the possibilities of brexit Gas Water Electric Should all be privatised and run as non profit making There should be incentives for companies to return manufacturing to this country We were told there would be no change, let's not pretend that we weren't lied to mate. I certainly don’t feel lied to as I fully expected things to change I voted for change I haven’t necessarily got the change I wanted
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 21, 2021 11:54:45 GMT
You say thinks are significantly worse but you were against Brexit. There have certainly been things not go well such as Northern Ireland and fishing, but surely things are a lot better than forecast by the Remainers project fear in 2016. It is obviously difficult to know the true effects because of the pandemic, which has hugely disrupted the world economy. Some of that disruption has yet to reveal itself, for example the present shortage of gas in Europe due to lack of maintenance during the height of the pandemic. Forecasts of economic collapse, high unemployment, drop in house prices, etc. have all proved to be untrue. Trade is higher today, despite the pandemic, than at the time of the referendum, exports to the EU are higher today than before the before Brexit but not as high as pre pandemic, employment is at record level, but self employment has not yet recovered to pre pandemic levels. There are certainly sectors of the economy that have suffered such as fishing, some food exports to the EU, and above all Northern Ireland, but these ironically are due to the very reason we left the EU to break out of the very tight customs/red tape rules of the EU that we were subject to as members. Now we can boost our trade with the rest of the world which represents over 80% of the world economy. That will clearly take time, especially as much of the world is still in the grip of the pandemic. On trade, the doom and gloom predictions of Remainers were that we would not be able to negotiate as good a deals as the EU because we were "a small nation" and it would take many years to negotiate new deals, presumably based on the snail's pace the EU make deals. The reality is that all the EU deals with other nations have been rolled over, an improved deal with Japan, an agreement for a new improved deal with Canada, a new deal with Australia, and deals in the pipeline. The only blot on trade is the USA , where Biden is anti-British on trade, but he will soon be gone. It is obviously going to take time to extract ourselves out of decades of EU regulations. Replacing CAP will take years. Remainers predicted a labour shortage if we left the EU and have been proven correct, but the severity of the problem is more due to the pandemic than Brexit. In particular the driver shortage that is impacting on deliveries has been a problem waiting to break for years and made worse by tax changes, DVLA strike, pandemic stopping training and testing, etc. The forecast: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36355564The reality: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-payrolled-employment-rises-by-record-241000-august-2021-09-14/There has never been a better time in our history to get a job with a record 1 million vacancies. The reality is it's tough if you are trying to sell the EU cheese or shellfish, but: www.cityam.com/uk-eu-monthly-exports-again-above-pre-brexit-2020-levels/Of course there are lots of economic "experts" writing papers to say things are worse than they would have been had we stayed in the EU, which the Guardian and Independent seize on and headline. But that is just theory. M & S announce they plan to shut 11 stores in France, which is leaped on with glee by Remainers when we have been shutting high street shops in thousands in the UK for many years. The world moves on. If we had stayed in the EU with Cameron still in charge we may have signed up to the EU vaccine procurement programme; what a disaster that would have been for us! Has the UK "lost it's place at the world table" not being in the EU? I would say just the opposite has happened. By 2050 the EU will represent less than 10% of the world economy with China (20%), India, and Indonesia being among the very biggest economies. The UK will still be just in the top 10 but only Germany will be with us. I'm still not clear after reading all that whether Brexit is going better or worse than you expected. Not what some caricature Remainers predicted, but what you as an individual expected. 5 years on from the Referendum things are much worse than I expected. For all the bluster, the UK was demonstrably unprepared for Brexit, used the potential preparation time abysmally, then chose to do it in the middle of a pandemic. So is where we are today better, worse or about the same as you expected in June 2016? On balance I am happy with where things are and better than I feared. Firstly I expected the vote to go in favour of remaining in June 2016, but the leave side won, which made me highly delighted. 2. I feared all along that even if we voted to leave that the powers that be would find some insurmountable reason that we could not leave. That did not occur despite a lot of efforts on Remainers part to overturn the decision and undermine the negotiations. 3. My next concern was that we would have some dreadful compromise that would be the worst of all world's, such as out of the EU but having to comply with all its future legislation. Fortunately despite May seeking a compromise solution, there were enough in her own party to scuttle that and the EU don't do compromise, as countries like Greenland and Switzerland have found. 4. I then became worried that "bull in a china shop" Johnson would either capitulate so as to say he got Brexit done, or, worse still, he would end up with no trade deal with the EU would would have been economically disastrous. Fortunately Johnson held his nerve and the EU gave in to the German pressure on a trade deal which would have been very damaging to Germany. The French dug their heels in on fishing though, and the Commission dug their heels on on the EU customs border being sacrosanct to Brussels, so Johnson gave way on those to avoid further delay in leaving and the fishing industry and Northern Ireland have been made to suffer the consequences. I can't say I'm happy with that but pleased to get out of the EU and at least the government is doing its best to sort out Northern Ireland, not giving an inch (not centimetre). Things might have been different if Northern Ireland had voted to leave. 5. I am very happy that we are not subject to EU law, EU judiciary and can get on like America, Canada, and Australia and over 200 other countries running the country in our best interests and not in the interests of German commerce and French agriculture. It will take time to reposition ourselves and their will be short term problems for a few years. How many years will depend on how soon the UK accepts we are out of the EU and the EU realises that it is in its own best interests to re-establish many of the reciprocal arrangements the UK had as a member such as travel, visas, retirement homes. The Commission has to be tough on the UK to dissuade any other country from leaving. That will soon be easier for them as the EU Pandemic Recovery fund will effectively lock in EU countries to the EU by fiscal union, so no one will be allowed to leave. 6. Above all I am delighted we have avoided ever closer union to a united states of Europe. The EU is in danger of being dominated by Macron, God help them, provided the French people don't toss him out next year. Naturally I wish we haven't got the problems we are suffering today, but we will soon be over them. Our cheese producers and fishermen are increasing their sales to non EU countries and in time will actually sell more to RoW than they did to the EU. www.export.org.uk/news/570343/UK-exports-of-food-and-drink-to-the-rest-of-the-world-overtake-those-to-the-EU-.htmwww.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-57696461 The potential of the Chines market is massive.
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Post by Kilo on Sept 21, 2021 11:55:21 GMT
Personally I think it will get slightly worse Before it gets considerably better It was never going to be sunshine all the way and anyone who thought it would needed to give there head a wobble True freedom for me would of been to have left with a no deal brexit straight after the referendum Regaining control of fishing etc And no Northern Ireland protocol What worries me the most about brexit is the lack of will from all political parties to grab the possibilities of brexit Gas Water Electric Should all be privatised and run as non profit making There should be incentives for companies to return manufacturing to this country We were told there would be no change, let's not pretend that we weren't lied to mate. Let's not pretend that both sides didn't lie.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Sept 21, 2021 12:11:49 GMT
We were told there would be no change, let's not pretend that we weren't lied to mate. Let's not pretend that both sides didn't lie. £350 million a week....what a whopper
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