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Post by longdistancekiddie on Jul 2, 2020 8:40:02 GMT
That is the full quote That's where 3 or 4 years comes from, which you said I introduced! Of course you agree with MrCoke, he's a Brexiteer so if I say something you'll feel automatically inclined to take issue with it, if he says something (sometimes even making the same point I have eg the natural home of most racists is to vote Leave) suddenly you'll agree! Just pointing out the unthinking tribalism... Usual attempt at deflection/straw man again at the end there too! Red, I don't know if you are aware but your attempts to get at the person , simply reflect upon yourself. It does make me wonder if you do have many personal relationships in the real world but that is something for you. I wouldn't try to over analyse things too much , I would not really think that too many people are interested on a message board. Typical crap reply Havea look in the mirror
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2020 8:49:47 GMT
Red, I don't know if you are aware but your attempts to get at the person , simply reflect upon yourself. It does make me wonder if you do have many personal relationships in the real world but that is something for you. I wouldn't try to over analyse things too much , I would not really think that too many people are interested on a message board. Typical crap reply Havea look in the mirror Indeed so. You try to present the evidence of his own quotes to counter the daft claim that I'd made up this 3 or 4 year timescale for assessing the impact of Brexit and it just gets ignored and deflected onto something else and the usual unnecessary ad-hominem stuff. Also not the brightest thing to say about personal relationships when your post count would indicate you spend four times as much time on here than you do in the real world! I've said it before and I'll say it again, some folk are just not cut out for discussions on social media and tend to get a bit tetchy and personal when challenged - followyoudown appears to be still rounding up his toys after his latest flounce off... Fairly standard though. I'm sure MrCoke will be along soon enough to provide something to agree with...
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 2, 2020 9:30:13 GMT
I never believed any politicians on Brexit promises, under in fact I fully expect an immediate adverse impact on the economy till we restructure and find new markets, make new trade agreements, etc. As bj says, the main reason to leave was sovereignty. I mention CO-19 as a fact, not an excuse. I actually expect the EU economy will be adversely impacted by the pandemic more than the UK. Italy and Greece's economies were already basket cases before the pandemic, and Germany will be bailing them out for decades. Germany was already in recession before the pandemic.* Other Mediterranean countries are going to have their tourist industries severely damaged, plus the higher cost of air travel and cruising. The EU have to tighten their budget and will do so all the more because of CO 19 effects. *7th Feb 2020: www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/germany-recession-fears-grow-as-insdutrial-data-disappoints.htmlInteresting. The OECD tends to disagree but I guess we'll have to wait and see...could just be Project Fear all over again I suppose... UK economy is world’s biggest Covid-19 casualty, OECD warns Think tank calls for measures to ease jobs crisis as UK economy braces for an 11.5pc contraction this year By Russell Lynch, ECONOMICS EDITOR Daily Telegraph 10 June 2020 • 9:00am Britain will suffer a more devastating economic blow from Covid-19 than any other leading nation as output slumps by 11.5pc and up to 2.4 million jobs are lost, according to an alarming new forecast by experts. The estimated hit to growth is almost twice as sharp as the 6pc decline forecast globally as countries faces up to the biggest health and economic crisis since the Second World War. Details were released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD), ahead of monthly GDP figures expected to show a record 18pc tumble for the British economy during April. It leaves ministers open to attacks for allowing drastic economic damage from a lockdown which failed to prevent mass deaths. Laurence Boone, chief economist at the OECD, warned that the recovery is likely to be slow as countries struggle with the fear of a new wave of infections. She said: “As long as no vaccine or treatment is widely available, policymakers around the world will continue to walk on a tightrope.” If there is a disastrous second spike in Covid deaths, the UK economy would collapse by 14pc – the second-worst blow of all major nations except France, which would suffer a 14.1pc decline. As the number of Covid-19 infections heads towards 300,000 and deaths pass 40,000, the forecaster warned that the UK had been hit relatively hard by the outbreak. The scale of the economic blow set out is likely to sharpen the debate in Government about the pace of reopening the economy in a bid to boost employment and prevent deep scars that could take many years to heal. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told a World Economic Forum seminar that there would be "elements of a faster recovery" as lockdown restrictions were gradually eased, but also warned of longer-term damage. He said: "We don’t know how much scarring there will be. I think it is reasonable to say there will be some but it is very hard to judge." In the OECD's “single wave” scenario, unemployment would surge to 9.1pc in 2020 – peaking at 11.7pc in late summer, meaning an extra 2.5 million unemployed – while the deficit would hit a peacetime record 12.4pc of GDP, putting immense strain on the public finances. If a second wave strikes, the deficit would hit an eye-watering 14.2pc of GDP, or £284bn. Jon Pareliussen, the OECD's UK economist, said: “The UK is among the hardest hit countries. There are several reasons for that – one is the economic structure because the UK is heavy on services so that makes it vulnerable to this virus. “It is also hard hit by the disease, which makes people adapt in their own right, and as a consequence of being hard hit by the disease the containment policies are also strict out of necessity.” The forecasts also suggest that the taxpayer-funded furlough scheme is unlikely to fully prevent a rise in unemployment. Although the economy overall is set to bounce back 9pc next year – its strongest growth in decades – it will remain 5pc below pre-crisis levels at the end of 2021 even without a second wave, the OECD added. The furlough scheme is due to end in October but should be revived if a second wave strikes, the think tank said. The latest forecasts are also based on a free-trade deal being agreed with the European Union, despite negotiations between the two sides apparently stalled over fishing rights and setting a “level playing field” on regulations. Failure to secure a deal would have a strongly negative effect on trade and jobs, the OECD claimed. Ministers should also consider easing the unemployment crisis by temporarily postponing further increases in the minimum wage so that firms can afford to employ more workers, the OECD said, while making longer term investment in digital infrastructure and green energy to boost growth. Ms Boone said: “We have previously called for a rise in public investment in digital and green technologies to promote long-term sustainable growth and lift demand in the short term. “This is even more urgent today with economies having been hit so hard.” The first thing that strikes me about that OECD forecast is the similarity between the UK and European countries, the difference been well with the accuracy range of the OECD forecast, which are often not as accurate as the IMF forecasts. Both organisations tend to be more pessimistic forcasting about the UK economy than the actual outcome. It would not surprise me if the UK has the worst short sharp dip, but I have faith in our economy that it will recover a lot stronger than other European countries. There is an obsession these days with the short term and not the medium and long term. Germany's economy is the engine driving Europe, but as I pointed out in my last post, the German economy was slowing badly prior to the pandemic and now due to the pandemic and Brexit, Germany is going to be saddled supporting the rest of the EU sick economies. Germany's economy is far the largest, so only a small change in Germany's performance has a huge effect on everyone else in Europe.
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 2, 2020 9:31:21 GMT
Well done Boris another shining example of how this country is going to be the beacon of multiculturalism And justice in the post Brexit world Has Farage had anything to say about this yet? 3 million immigrants coming to our shores? Well as he's married to a immigrant Im sure he will be fine about it
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2020 9:54:43 GMT
Interesting. The OECD tends to disagree but I guess we'll have to wait and see...could just be Project Fear all over again I suppose... UK economy is world’s biggest Covid-19 casualty, OECD warns Think tank calls for measures to ease jobs crisis as UK economy braces for an 11.5pc contraction this year By Russell Lynch, ECONOMICS EDITOR Daily Telegraph 10 June 2020 • 9:00am Britain will suffer a more devastating economic blow from Covid-19 than any other leading nation as output slumps by 11.5pc and up to 2.4 million jobs are lost, according to an alarming new forecast by experts. The estimated hit to growth is almost twice as sharp as the 6pc decline forecast globally as countries faces up to the biggest health and economic crisis since the Second World War. Details were released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD), ahead of monthly GDP figures expected to show a record 18pc tumble for the British economy during April. It leaves ministers open to attacks for allowing drastic economic damage from a lockdown which failed to prevent mass deaths. Laurence Boone, chief economist at the OECD, warned that the recovery is likely to be slow as countries struggle with the fear of a new wave of infections. She said: “As long as no vaccine or treatment is widely available, policymakers around the world will continue to walk on a tightrope.” If there is a disastrous second spike in Covid deaths, the UK economy would collapse by 14pc – the second-worst blow of all major nations except France, which would suffer a 14.1pc decline. As the number of Covid-19 infections heads towards 300,000 and deaths pass 40,000, the forecaster warned that the UK had been hit relatively hard by the outbreak. The scale of the economic blow set out is likely to sharpen the debate in Government about the pace of reopening the economy in a bid to boost employment and prevent deep scars that could take many years to heal. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told a World Economic Forum seminar that there would be "elements of a faster recovery" as lockdown restrictions were gradually eased, but also warned of longer-term damage. He said: "We don’t know how much scarring there will be. I think it is reasonable to say there will be some but it is very hard to judge." In the OECD's “single wave” scenario, unemployment would surge to 9.1pc in 2020 – peaking at 11.7pc in late summer, meaning an extra 2.5 million unemployed – while the deficit would hit a peacetime record 12.4pc of GDP, putting immense strain on the public finances. If a second wave strikes, the deficit would hit an eye-watering 14.2pc of GDP, or £284bn. Jon Pareliussen, the OECD's UK economist, said: “The UK is among the hardest hit countries. There are several reasons for that – one is the economic structure because the UK is heavy on services so that makes it vulnerable to this virus. “It is also hard hit by the disease, which makes people adapt in their own right, and as a consequence of being hard hit by the disease the containment policies are also strict out of necessity.” The forecasts also suggest that the taxpayer-funded furlough scheme is unlikely to fully prevent a rise in unemployment. Although the economy overall is set to bounce back 9pc next year – its strongest growth in decades – it will remain 5pc below pre-crisis levels at the end of 2021 even without a second wave, the OECD added. The furlough scheme is due to end in October but should be revived if a second wave strikes, the think tank said. The latest forecasts are also based on a free-trade deal being agreed with the European Union, despite negotiations between the two sides apparently stalled over fishing rights and setting a “level playing field” on regulations. Failure to secure a deal would have a strongly negative effect on trade and jobs, the OECD claimed. Ministers should also consider easing the unemployment crisis by temporarily postponing further increases in the minimum wage so that firms can afford to employ more workers, the OECD said, while making longer term investment in digital infrastructure and green energy to boost growth. Ms Boone said: “We have previously called for a rise in public investment in digital and green technologies to promote long-term sustainable growth and lift demand in the short term. “This is even more urgent today with economies having been hit so hard.” The first thing that strikes me about that OECD forecast is the similarity between the UK and European countries, the difference been well with the accuracy range of the OECD forecast, which are often not as accurate as the IMF forecasts. Both organisations tend to be more pessimistic forcasting about the UK economy than the actual outcome. It would not surprise me if the UK has the worst short sharp dip, but I have faith in our economy that it will recover a lot stronger than other European countries. There is an obsession these days with the short term and not the medium and long term. Germany's economy is the engine driving Europe, but as I pointed out in my last post, the German economy was slowing badly prior to the pandemic and now due to the pandemic and Brexit, Germany is going to be saddled supporting the rest of the EU sick economies. Germany's economy is far the largest, so only a small change in Germany's performance has a huge effect on everyone else in Europe. We'll see. It's true that those impact indicators are based on the impact to GDP, which is just one factor in the health of a country's economy. I don't think there's much to worry about for Germany, despite being officially in recession, their debt and deficit ratios are much healthier than ours for example. Our public debt might start matching those of some of the southern European countries if Covid does bugger up our economy more than most others. What interests me is that there was little or no interest in Keynesian stimuli after the last financial collapse and recession, yet Boris is fully on-board with public spending to kick start the economy this time. If you were here ten years ago, MrCoke, you'd have seen page after page from people arguing against spending our way out of a recession - not much of a peep this time around! Perhaps it's the scale that is different, or perhaps people were quite keen to see the experiment of slashing back the public sector play out and they're not so keen now we've just had a demonstration of how reliant we are on it!
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2020 9:55:37 GMT
Has Farage had anything to say about this yet? 3 million immigrants coming to our shores? Well as he's married to a immigrant Im sure he will be fine about it He wasn't last time
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 2, 2020 10:31:12 GMT
Well as he's married to a immigrant Im sure he will be fine about it He wasn't last time Ah but the influx of Hong Kong nationals will be controlled migration Decided by the British government What is there not to like
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 2, 2020 11:12:41 GMT
The first thing that strikes me about that OECD forecast is the similarity between the UK and European countries, the difference been well with the accuracy range of the OECD forecast, which are often not as accurate as the IMF forecasts. Both organisations tend to be more pessimistic forcasting about the UK economy than the actual outcome. It would not surprise me if the UK has the worst short sharp dip, but I have faith in our economy that it will recover a lot stronger than other European countries. There is an obsession these days with the short term and not the medium and long term. Germany's economy is the engine driving Europe, but as I pointed out in my last post, the German economy was slowing badly prior to the pandemic and now due to the pandemic and Brexit, Germany is going to be saddled supporting the rest of the EU sick economies. Germany's economy is far the largest, so only a small change in Germany's performance has a huge effect on everyone else in Europe. We'll see. It's true that those impact indicators are based on the impact to GDP, which is just one factor in the health of a country's economy. I don't think there's much to worry about for Germany, despite being officially in recession, their debt and deficit ratios are much healthier than ours for example. Our public debt might start matching those of some of the southern European countries if Covid does bugger up our economy more than most others. What interests me is that there was little or no interest in Keynesian stimuli after the last financial collapse and recession, yet Boris is fully on-board with public spending to kick start the economy this time. If you were here ten years ago, MrCoke, you'd have seen page after page from people arguing against spending our way out of a recession - not much of a peep this time around! Perhaps it's the scale that is different, or perhaps people were quite keen to see the experiment of slashing back the public sector play out and they're not so keen now we've just had a demonstration of how reliant we are on it! Ten years ago I was a senior manager in a multinational company, and had spent years chairing a European industrial committee and went on to head a business efficiency team. I visited Germany regularly and have a huge admiration for their industry and organisation and still converse with a former German colleague who heads up a sales department of a major German engineering company. You are correct in that the German economy and budget is far sounder than almost everyone else's in the EU. This is built on many, many years of a large and growing trade balance, something that can annoy me as I have repeatedly come up against German cartels to protect their own industry, and failure to follow EU directives. The large positive German trade balance is largely based on exports to USA and UK, plus exports to other EU countries that they are subsidising by loans and the EU regional aid. There is a distinct danger to Germany that that customer base is disappearing. The USA is putting up barriers, China is displacing Germany in world markets. To put it simply Germany is deeply worried about losing its massive exports, particularly the threat of the UK doing it's own thing. People are right to be concerned about Keynesian policies. I can remember the Barber boom in the early 70s which lead to rampant inflation. I do believe in investing to grow, but it has to be wise investment in infrastructure which is going to pay back in the long term, not just throwing money about, particularly subsidising inefficient nationalised industries. We are no doubt into a recession. Before the pandemic struck we had extremely high borrowing, air lines were already struggling, and the high streets were dying. The pandemic effect will accelerate those effects. But that is just part of the economy's evolution. 10 years ago we had an the worst economic recession since the 20s (or WWII), 40 years ago we had 100,000s of miners, steelworkers, ship builders, etc. losing their jobs year after year. 20 years ago we had a coal industry and large coal imports. Today we have not used a tonne of coal in a power stations for many weeks. What I am saying, despite all the doom and gloom merchants, we do recover, and we Brits have a better ability to recover than most due to the huge advantages we have with our inherent industriousness, inventiveness and ingenuity, and other factors like our own currency. Despite natural resistance to change, the British are prepared to adapt and accept there is a different way of doing things. Unfortunately we do not have the sound leadership and management the Germans have!
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Post by deadwait on Jul 2, 2020 11:42:50 GMT
Just reading a book titled 1812 by Adam Zamoyski. I came across this quote by Napoleon. " The French Empire shall become the metropolis of all the sovereignties. European society needs a regeneration. There must be a superior power which dominates all the other powers. We must have a European legal system, a European appeal court, a common currency, the same weights and measures, the same laws. I must make of all the people of Europe one people and of Paris, the Capital of the world.
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Post by lordb on Jul 2, 2020 12:00:21 GMT
Just reading a book titled 1812 by Adam Zamoyski. I came across this quote by Napoleon. " The French Empire shall become the metropolis of all the sovereignties. European society needs a regeneration. There must be a superior power which dominates all the other powers. We must have a European legal system, a European appeal court, a common currency, the same weights and measures, the same laws. I must make of all the people of Europe one people and of Paris, the Capital of the world. And?
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Post by deadwait on Jul 2, 2020 12:09:42 GMT
Just reading a book titled 1812 by Adam Zamoyski. I came across this quote by Napoleon. " The French Empire shall become the metropolis of all the sovereignties. European society needs a regeneration. There must be a superior power which dominates all the other powers. We must have a European legal system, a European appeal court, a common currency, the same weights and measures, the same laws. I must make of all the people of Europe one people and of Paris, the Capital of the world. And? Just a little read for you !
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Post by Clayton Wood on Jul 2, 2020 12:44:19 GMT
Just reading a book titled 1812 by Adam Zamoyski. I came across this quote by Napoleon. " The French Empire shall become the metropolis of all the sovereignties. European society needs a regeneration. There must be a superior power which dominates all the other powers. We must have a European legal system, a European appeal court, a common currency, the same weights and measures, the same laws. I must make of all the people of Europe one people and of Paris, the Capital of the world. And? They are colonialist so should have their statues pulled down?
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Post by deadwait on Jul 2, 2020 13:33:33 GMT
They are colonialist so should have their statues pulled down? You beat me to it ! thanks Wag,
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Post by thevoid on Jul 2, 2020 13:39:47 GMT
Typical crap reply Havea look in the mirror Indeed so. You try to present the evidence of his own quotes to counter the daft claim that I'd made up this 3 or 4 year timescale for assessing the impact of Brexit and it just gets ignored and deflected onto something else and the usual unnecessary ad-hominem stuff. Also not the brightest thing to say about personal relationships when your post count would indicate you spend four times as much time on here than you do in the real world! I've said it before and I'll say it again, some folk are just not cut out for discussions on social media and tend to get a bit tetchy and personal when challenged - followyoudown appears to be still rounding up his toys after his latest flounce off... Fairly standard though. I'm sure MrCoke will be along soon enough to provide something to agree with... Why the obsession over post counts? It seems as though you fixate over the strangest of things, Bluers- although I suppose it makes a change from 'left wing acronym confusion' (I can't believe I've actually typed those words, it looks like the name of a 20 minute track from a Yes album 😂). Anyway, the original question on this post was more rhetorical than anything, so no need for a reply back to try and get the last word (not that that will stop you!) 👍
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2020 15:04:06 GMT
He wasn't last time Ah but the influx of Hong Kong nationals will be controlled migration Decided by the British government What is there not to like The numbers? That's about ten to twelve years' worth of what we have at the moment every year. I seem to remember lots about "we're full already" and "creaking infrastructure", "too much strain on the NHS already to allow more migrants in". Funny how that doesn't appear to be an issue any more?
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 2, 2020 15:08:53 GMT
Ah but the influx of Hong Kong nationals will be controlled migration Decided by the British government What is there not to like The numbers? That's about ten to twelve years' worth of what we have at the moment every year. I seem to remember lots about "we're full already" and "creaking infrastructure", "too much strain on the NHS already to allow more migrants in". Funny how that doesn't appear to be an issue any more? In my eyes it's never been an issue But for those that it was I'm sure the amount that do eventually leave Hong Kong and head here (Australia are already sniffing) Will merely replace the Europeans that return home
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2020 15:13:10 GMT
We'll see. It's true that those impact indicators are based on the impact to GDP, which is just one factor in the health of a country's economy. I don't think there's much to worry about for Germany, despite being officially in recession, their debt and deficit ratios are much healthier than ours for example. Our public debt might start matching those of some of the southern European countries if Covid does bugger up our economy more than most others. What interests me is that there was little or no interest in Keynesian stimuli after the last financial collapse and recession, yet Boris is fully on-board with public spending to kick start the economy this time. If you were here ten years ago, MrCoke, you'd have seen page after page from people arguing against spending our way out of a recession - not much of a peep this time around! Perhaps it's the scale that is different, or perhaps people were quite keen to see the experiment of slashing back the public sector play out and they're not so keen now we've just had a demonstration of how reliant we are on it! Ten years ago I was a senior manager in a multinational company, and had spent years chairing a European industrial committee and went on to head a business efficiency team. I visited Germany regularly and have a huge admiration for their industry and organisation and still converse with a former German colleague who heads up a sales department of a major German engineering company. You are correct in that the German economy and budget is far sounder than almost everyone else's in the EU. This is built on many, many years of a large and growing trade balance, something that can annoy me as I have repeatedly come up against German cartels to protect their own industry, and failure to follow EU directives. The large positive German trade balance is largely based on exports to USA and UK, plus exports to other EU countries that they are subsidising by loans and the EU regional aid. There is a distinct danger to Germany that that customer base is disappearing. The USA is putting up barriers, China is displacing Germany in world markets. To put it simply Germany is deeply worried about losing its massive exports, particularly the threat of the UK doing it's own thing. People are right to be concerned about Keynesian policies. I can remember the Barber boom in the early 70s which lead to rampant inflation. I do believe in investing to grow, but it has to be wise investment in infrastructure which is going to pay back in the long term, not just throwing money about, particularly subsidising inefficient nationalised industries. We are no doubt into a recession. Before the pandemic struck we had extremely high borrowing, air lines were already struggling, and the high streets were dying. The pandemic effect will accelerate those effects. But that is just part of the economy's evolution. 10 years ago we had an the worst economic recession since the 20s (or WWII), 40 years ago we had 100,000s of miners, steelworkers, ship builders, etc. losing their jobs year after year. 20 years ago we had a coal industry and large coal imports. Today we have not used a tonne of coal in a power stations for many weeks. What I am saying, despite all the doom and gloom merchants, we do recover, and we Brits have a better ability to recover than most due to the huge advantages we have with our inherent industriousness, inventiveness and ingenuity, and other factors like our own currency. Despite natural resistance to change, the British are prepared to adapt and accept there is a different way of doing things. Unfortunately we do not have the sound leadership and management the Germans have! Good post. One of my neighbours works in the car industry as a supply chain manager routinely dealing with Europe. He tells me the Germans have been working for the last four years to identify new markets on the assumption that the UK was likely to be less of an export destination for them post Brexit, so I think that sensible approach will probably bear fruit for them. I don't subscribe to this "they need us more than we need them" belief that most Brexiteers continue to cling to. My feeling is that some sort of deal will be cobbled together, involving concessions on both sides. After all, what both want is fairly obvious: the UK to minimise any damage to the economy as a result of no longer having unfettered access to the single market and the EU to be able to say to its club members, you get a better deal staying in. I'm not sure the UK is all that industrious, we have a big problem with productivity in this country. But perhaps you're right, maybe Brexit and Covid-19 will be the making of this country. I suspect not but we'll see. I completely agree about the sound leadership and management!
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2020 15:13:58 GMT
The numbers? That's about ten to twelve years' worth of what we have at the moment every year. I seem to remember lots about "we're full already" and "creaking infrastructure", "too much strain on the NHS already to allow more migrants in". Funny how that doesn't appear to be an issue any more? In my eyes it's never been an issue But for those that it was I'm sure the amount that do eventually leave Hong Kong and head here (Australia are already sniffing) Will merely replace the Europeans that return home But most of them are already being replaced by migrants from outside the EU. www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1248357/immigration-figures-UK-EU-brexit-migrants
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 2, 2020 15:20:06 GMT
Good more the merrier we will need all the industrious people we can once the country booms with the new found freedom
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 2, 2020 15:22:33 GMT
Just reading a book titled 1812 by Adam Zamoyski. I came across this quote by Napoleon. " The French Empire shall become the metropolis of all the sovereignties. European society needs a regeneration. There must be a superior power which dominates all the other powers. We must have a European legal system, a European appeal court, a common currency, the same weights and measures, the same laws. I must make of all the people of Europe one people and of Paris, the Capital of the world. Talking of imperialism... From the FT... Exactly 70 years ago, on September 19, 1946, Sir Winston Churchill delivered his famous speech in Zurich calling for the creation of “a United States of Europe”. Britain’s wartime leader was revered across the continent for his role in the defeat of Nazi Germany, despite the fact that he had lost office as UK prime minister after the general election of 1945. His ringing call for reconciliation between France and Germany, and “the re-creation of the European family”, struck a chord for both the victors and the vanquished emerging from the devastation of two world wars. It inspired a European movement that led to the creation of the Common Market, and, ultimately, to today’s European Union. “Churchill was called the father of ‘Europe’, and he said much to justify that label,” the British journalist and political commentator Hugo Young wrote in his seminal history of Britain and Europe. “But he was also the father of misunderstandings about Britain’s part in this Europe. He encouraged Europe to misunderstand Britain, and Britain to misunderstand herself.” As Churchill urged a Franco-German partnership to lead his vision of a new Europe, he declared that Great Britain and the British Commonwealth, along with the US and USSR, should be “friends and sponsors” of the project. He did not talk of the UK becoming a member itself. “We are with Europe, but not of it,” he wrote in an earlier essay. “We are linked but not comprised.” That ambiguity has haunted Britain’s relationship with its continental neighbours ever since, culminating in the UK referendum vote on June 23 for Brexit. First the UK refused to join in 1957, dismissing the negotiations for the Treaty of Rome as irrelevant. Then, when Harold Macmillan changed his mind, for fear of being left out of an economic success story, his membership bid was vetoed by France’s president Charles de Gaulle. When Edward Heath finally succeeded in negotiating membership from 1973, it was seen by many as a defeat for UK exceptionalism, not a victory for European solidarity. That British attitude is rooted in its imperial history — Churchill’s great passion — and a perception of British security, its interests and its diplomacy, as global, not narrowly European. That feeling, along with resentment at the apparent roles of Germany and France in setting the European agenda, was a constant subtext to arguments in favour of Brexit. Yet, in spite of the centrality of strategic concerns to the intellectual UK debate on Europe, the subjects of foreign policy and security received scant attention during the referendum campaign. It was dominated instead by the debates on immigration and the economy. “When foreign, security and defence policy was discussed . . . it was predominantly in terms of the costs and benefits to the UK of being a member of the EU,” says Richard Whitman, professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent. “There was no substantive rehearsal of what the future EU-UK foreign and security policy relationship might be with the UK outside the EU.” It was a curious and alarming omission, given that such questions have always been at the heart of British historic hesitation about the EU. For Churchill, as for the overwhelming majority of the British establishment in those early postwar decades, the British empire (and the Commonwealth that succeeded it) and the “special relationship” with the US, were the nation’s two most important strategic priorities. Nato was seen in London as much the most important alliance in Europe. The Common Market, launched in 1957 by the Treaty of Rome, was seen as largely irrelevant to national security. In the Brexit camp, the idea of reviving an Anglosphere centred on the “special relationship” between London and Washington (especially in intelligence co-operation), and underpinned by close ties with the “old” Commonwealth of Australia, Canada and New Zealand, was very popular. The question now is whether that romantic attachment to old imperial and English-speaking ties can be turned into an effective policy. The world in 2016 is very different from that of 1946. “The number one problem is that everyone else has moved on,” says Prof Whitman. “They have been pretty successful at forging ‘post-British’ foreign policy identities.” Australia and New Zealand have refocused their foreign and security policy on the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the dominant player. Canada has defined itself as an independent-minded US neighbour with increasingly strong Asia links to balance its traditional European ties. As for the US, successive regimes have made it clear that they see European integration as an essential part of western security policy and they have made no secret of wanting the UK to be a full-hearted player. Opinion in Washington was overwhelmingly opposed to the idea of Brexit during the referendum campaign, with the exception of Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate. The expectation now is that the UK will throw itself with redoubled enthusiasm into beefing up the Nato alliance, to make up for its gradual withdrawal from the EU Leading members of the Brexit camp, such as David Davis, now the minister responsible for the exit negotiations, and Liam Fox, minister for international trade, have always based their arguments on the irrelevance of the EU to UK security, and the far greater importance of Nato. The expectation now is that the UK will throw itself with redoubled enthusiasm into beefing up the Nato alliance, to make up for its gradual withdrawal from the EU. That could mean bolstering the UK military support for the Baltic republics, however much such a move might infuriate Moscow. For the rest of the EU, the prospect of UK withdrawal is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, the most serious and rapidly deployable military forces in the EU are those of Britain and France. The UK has played a leading role in the anti-piracy operation off the coast of Somalia. British diplomats have also played an important role in establishing the European External Action Service — the EU’s own diplomatic arm. On the other hand, the UK has been increasingly hostile to the development of an EU defence policy, and to any weakening of intergovernmental control (and therefore a national veto) of security policy. British departure from the EU would free the other member states to move forward with the creation of a stronger military operational and planning core, as favoured by France, and more support for a stronger European defence industry.
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Post by xchpotter on Jul 2, 2020 15:45:51 GMT
Good more the merrier we will need all the industrious people we can once the country booms with the new found freedom I think there is an opportunity to welcome some very gifted people from Hong Kong right across the spectrum of key roles such as medicine, science, business etc.and if anyone, regardless of where they are from can make a valuable contribution, then great. It will be interesting to see what conditions the Government are seeking to add if any. I would hope that where appropriate there is a chance of some proper background checks to ensure we minimise risk as much as possible around organised crime and state sponsored industrial espionage and technology development theft.
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 2, 2020 16:01:03 GMT
Just reading a book titled 1812 by Adam Zamoyski. I came across this quote by Napoleon. " The French Empire shall become the metropolis of all the sovereignties. European society needs a regeneration. There must be a superior power which dominates all the other powers. We must have a European legal system, a European appeal court, a common currency, the same weights and measures, the same laws. I must make of all the people of Europe one people and of Paris, the Capital of the world. Talking of imperialism... From the FT... Exactly 70 years ago, on September 19, 1946, Sir Winston Churchill delivered his famous speech in Zurich calling for the creation of “a United States of Europe”. Britain’s wartime leader was revered across the continent for his role in the defeat of Nazi Germany, despite the fact that he had lost office as UK prime minister after the general election of 1945. His ringing call for reconciliation between France and Germany, and “the re-creation of the European family”, struck a chord for both the victors and the vanquished emerging from the devastation of two world wars. It inspired a European movement that led to the creation of the Common Market, and, ultimately, to today’s European Union. “Churchill was called the father of ‘Europe’, and he said much to justify that label,” the British journalist and political commentator Hugo Young wrote in his seminal history of Britain and Europe. “But he was also the father of misunderstandings about Britain’s part in this Europe. He encouraged Europe to misunderstand Britain, and Britain to misunderstand herself.” As Churchill urged a Franco-German partnership to lead his vision of a new Europe, he declared that Great Britain and the British Commonwealth, along with the US and USSR, should be “friends and sponsors” of the project. He did not talk of the UK becoming a member itself. “We are with Europe, but not of it,” he wrote in an earlier essay. “We are linked but not comprised.” That ambiguity has haunted Britain’s relationship with its continental neighbours ever since, culminating in the UK referendum vote on June 23 for Brexit. First the UK refused to join in 1957, dismissing the negotiations for the Treaty of Rome as irrelevant. Then, when Harold Macmillan changed his mind, for fear of being left out of an economic success story, his membership bid was vetoed by France’s president Charles de Gaulle. When Edward Heath finally succeeded in negotiating membership from 1973, it was seen by many as a defeat for UK exceptionalism, not a victory for European solidarity. That British attitude is rooted in its imperial history — Churchill’s great passion — and a perception of British security, its interests and its diplomacy, as global, not narrowly European. That feeling, along with resentment at the apparent roles of Germany and France in setting the European agenda, was a constant subtext to arguments in favour of Brexit. Yet, in spite of the centrality of strategic concerns to the intellectual UK debate on Europe, the subjects of foreign policy and security received scant attention during the referendum campaign. It was dominated instead by the debates on immigration and the economy. “When foreign, security and defence policy was discussed . . . it was predominantly in terms of the costs and benefits to the UK of being a member of the EU,” says Richard Whitman, professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent. “There was no substantive rehearsal of what the future EU-UK foreign and security policy relationship might be with the UK outside the EU.” It was a curious and alarming omission, given that such questions have always been at the heart of British historic hesitation about the EU. For Churchill, as for the overwhelming majority of the British establishment in those early postwar decades, the British empire (and the Commonwealth that succeeded it) and the “special relationship” with the US, were the nation’s two most important strategic priorities. Nato was seen in London as much the most important alliance in Europe. The Common Market, launched in 1957 by the Treaty of Rome, was seen as largely irrelevant to national security. In the Brexit camp, the idea of reviving an Anglosphere centred on the “special relationship” between London and Washington (especially in intelligence co-operation), and underpinned by close ties with the “old” Commonwealth of Australia, Canada and New Zealand, was very popular. The question now is whether that romantic attachment to old imperial and English-speaking ties can be turned into an effective policy. The world in 2016 is very different from that of 1946. “The number one problem is that everyone else has moved on,” says Prof Whitman. “They have been pretty successful at forging ‘post-British’ foreign policy identities.” Australia and New Zealand have refocused their foreign and security policy on the Asia-Pacific region, in which China is the dominant player. Canada has defined itself as an independent-minded US neighbour with increasingly strong Asia links to balance its traditional European ties. As for the US, successive regimes have made it clear that they see European integration as an essential part of western security policy and they have made no secret of wanting the UK to be a full-hearted player. Opinion in Washington was overwhelmingly opposed to the idea of Brexit during the referendum campaign, with the exception of Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate. The expectation now is that the UK will throw itself with redoubled enthusiasm into beefing up the Nato alliance, to make up for its gradual withdrawal from the EU Leading members of the Brexit camp, such as David Davis, now the minister responsible for the exit negotiations, and Liam Fox, minister for international trade, have always based their arguments on the irrelevance of the EU to UK security, and the far greater importance of Nato. The expectation now is that the UK will throw itself with redoubled enthusiasm into beefing up the Nato alliance, to make up for its gradual withdrawal from the EU. That could mean bolstering the UK military support for the Baltic republics, however much such a move might infuriate Moscow. For the rest of the EU, the prospect of UK withdrawal is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, the most serious and rapidly deployable military forces in the EU are those of Britain and France. The UK has played a leading role in the anti-piracy operation off the coast of Somalia. British diplomats have also played an important role in establishing the European External Action Service — the EU’s own diplomatic arm. On the other hand, the UK has been increasingly hostile to the development of an EU defence policy, and to any weakening of intergovernmental control (and therefore a national veto) of security policy. British departure from the EU would free the other member states to move forward with the creation of a stronger military operational and planning core, as favoured by France, and more support for a stronger European defence industry. It's a bit old that goes back to May's premiership. Have you actually read it....... Quote from it.... "As Churchill urged a Franco-German partnership to lead his vision of a new Europe, he declared that Great Britain and the British Commonwealth, along with the US and USSR, should be “friends and sponsors” of the project. He did not talk of the UK becoming a member itself. “We are with Europe, but not of it,” he wrote in an earlier essay. “We are linked but not comprised.” That ambiguity has haunted Britain’s relationship with its continental neighbours ever since, culminating in the UK referendum vote on June 23 for Brexit." And, of course, a lot has happened post Churchill
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 2, 2020 16:10:20 GMT
I think that anyone can understand Churchill talking about a united Europe in the aftermath of the second world war.....I doubt that he would support an anti democratic project like the EU , whose very methods have probably alienated many of those who want harmony, peace and cooperation across Europe....there are other visions of Europe.
The form of a " United States of Europe " is a matter for the countries of Europe, Im pleased that the British public chose not to belong to the EU.....an entirely different issue.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 2, 2020 17:02:09 GMT
Ten years ago I was a senior manager in a multinational company, and had spent years chairing a European industrial committee and went on to head a business efficiency team. I visited Germany regularly and have a huge admiration for their industry and organisation and still converse with a former German colleague who heads up a sales department of a major German engineering company. You are correct in that the German economy and budget is far sounder than almost everyone else's in the EU. This is built on many, many years of a large and growing trade balance, something that can annoy me as I have repeatedly come up against German cartels to protect their own industry, and failure to follow EU directives. The large positive German trade balance is largely based on exports to USA and UK, plus exports to other EU countries that they are subsidising by loans and the EU regional aid. There is a distinct danger to Germany that that customer base is disappearing. The USA is putting up barriers, China is displacing Germany in world markets. To put it simply Germany is deeply worried about losing its massive exports, particularly the threat of the UK doing it's own thing. People are right to be concerned about Keynesian policies. I can remember the Barber boom in the early 70s which lead to rampant inflation. I do believe in investing to grow, but it has to be wise investment in infrastructure which is going to pay back in the long term, not just throwing money about, particularly subsidising inefficient nationalised industries. We are no doubt into a recession. Before the pandemic struck we had extremely high borrowing, air lines were already struggling, and the high streets were dying. The pandemic effect will accelerate those effects. But that is just part of the economy's evolution. 10 years ago we had an the worst economic recession since the 20s (or WWII), 40 years ago we had 100,000s of miners, steelworkers, ship builders, etc. losing their jobs year after year. 20 years ago we had a coal industry and large coal imports. Today we have not used a tonne of coal in a power stations for many weeks. What I am saying, despite all the doom and gloom merchants, we do recover, and we Brits have a better ability to recover than most due to the huge advantages we have with our inherent industriousness, inventiveness and ingenuity, and other factors like our own currency. Despite natural resistance to change, the British are prepared to adapt and accept there is a different way of doing things. Unfortunately we do not have the sound leadership and management the Germans have! Good post. One of my neighbours works in the car industry as a supply chain manager routinely dealing with Europe. He tells me the Germans have been working for the last four years to identify new markets on the assumption that the UK was likely to be less of an export destination for them post Brexit, so I think that sensible approach will probably bear fruit for them. I don't subscribe to this "they need us more than we need them" belief that most Brexiteers continue to cling to. My feeling is that some sort of deal will be cobbled together, involving concessions on both sides. After all, what both want is fairly obvious: the UK to minimise any damage to the economy as a result of no longer having unfettered access to the single market and the EU to be able to say to its club members, you get a better deal staying in. I'm not sure the UK is all that industrious, we have a big problem with productivity in this country. But perhaps you're right, maybe Brexit and Covid-19 will be the making of this country. I suspect not but we'll see. I completely agree about the sound leadership and management! Thanks for the complement. It does not surprise me the Germans have been seeking alternative markets. Personally I think a developed country should concentrate on new products, and leave established products to the young developing economies. I agree I would not trust Johnson further than I can throw him (literally! ) I would not be surprised if we sell out in the end. Even if we do have an agreement, how many of us expect the French, Italians, etc. to stick to the agreement, which was my bone of contention with the EU for the last 20 years. Having been a manager in British industry for nearly 40 years and I was always very satisfied with the industriousness of British workers, whilst conscious there are unsatisfactory pockets. Wherever I have visited though, and I have visited 100s of works I was rarely unimpressed. Naturally standards vary, Jaguar for example are not as super efficient as Nissan, but nevertheless work hard and make superb products. You are right about productivity, but in my experience the reason we lag others is because of lack of major investment, not due to any laziness by British workers. Often in British industry investment is short term looking for a quick payback. I visited many factories in Germany and was bowled over by the scale of their investments. I could write at length on this topic. Regarding the FT article, it is wrong to say Churchill's views have haunted us till the referendum. Most people do not have a clue on what Churchill's views on Europe were, and totally unaware that when Germany invaded the low countries, he offered France total unity to try and avoid Germany invading France. (The French refused.) In 1975 we had a referendum to settle the issue of staying in the common market (EEC). The nation voted 2 to 1 to stay in, an overwhelming majority. That settled the matter for most people, including me who was a Liberal and very pro common market. But then Brussels started to introduce new treaties and form the EU, which we did not vote for. Consequently for various reasons, the nation has changed its mind, well at least the English and Welsh.
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Jul 3, 2020 11:53:11 GMT
Bless 'em for still trying.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 3, 2020 13:32:53 GMT
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Post by The Drunken Communist on Jul 3, 2020 13:52:51 GMT
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Jul 3, 2020 14:09:14 GMT
I'd forgotten about this one when we were talking about how Leavers weren't really racists...
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Post by nicholasjalcock on Jul 3, 2020 16:48:32 GMT
Was that the poll Nigel’s Brexit Party got zero seats?😜
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Post by wagsastokie on Jul 3, 2020 17:31:28 GMT
Was that the poll Nigel’s Brexit Party got zero seats?😜 Yeah the same number of seats as soubry and her pals
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