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Post by mickeythemaestro on Feb 22, 2024 23:05:54 GMT
A stopped Clock is correct twice a day Railing against the insanity doesn't change the reality, that Trump is likely to be the next President of the US and all that entails for Friend or Foe alike. The World is more actively volatile now than it has been in the last 75 years. Conflicts in relatively small Countries Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas have huge repercussions in the World Order Financially and Geopolitically 20 of 31 NATO Countries do not fulfil the commitment to NATO of spending 2% of GDP on Defence including Germany, France and Italy 3 of the G7 Some posts today on different threads suggest that UK Government/Politics should confine to Domestic issues, that is naive, but possibly a reflection of what influence UK has now or going forward In other events taking place in the World, besides Trumps likely Election China the 2nd Largest Economy in the World is facing a major Economic downturn. Socially this is very bad news because Youth Unemployment is so high partially responsible for the Bankrupcy of the biggest Property Company in the World Evergrande meaning young people can't afford to buy a house. In the one child policy this upsets the Social Order of the Younger Generation looking after the Older. These Domestic problems are unlikely to greatly upset Western Countries but it will mean the Chinese Consumers will no longer be buying Apple Phones, Volkswagon Cars or Burberry Coats and demand for Western Materials to grow the Economy will be limited Indonesia projected to be the 6th largest Economy in the World by 2026, ironically accelerated to overtake Russia due to Russia's War. It has the World's largest Muslim Population, it is the 3rd largest, allegedly, Democracy in the World, it has the 4th Largest Population in the World. For the last 10 years the Economy has prospered after the Suharto Dictatorship. The most expected Candidate to win the current Presidential Election Prabowo favours the old Military approach. Pakistan, another Democracy apparently, with the 5th largest population in the World economically is a Basket Case. 40% of the Population live in poverty using the $3 per day measure. It also happens to be a Neuclear Power. We have seen the current disputed Elections where the previously jailed exPM Sharif is claiming victory over the currently jailed exPM Imran Khan. Pakistans closest allay is China but despite certain differences is also close allay to Iran depending on who is in control India, another Neuclear Power and the most populous Country in the World claims to be the largest Democracy in the World. That might be true if you discount the 20% non Hindu Population So we have the proposition by the end of 2024 some of the largest and most populous Countries in the World will be governed by psedo or actual Dictators Trump: Xi: Prabowo: Sharif: Modi: Putin: Netanyahu: Khamenei, there are others I could mention The only glimmer is that all of the above are into their seventies and with any luck might Fuck Off soon. Who are the replacements waiting in line? Do you think that it is more unstable though, or do you think that recency bias is to play? A lot has gone on in Eastern Europe (in particular) since the end of WW2. Is it more unstable now than it was during the Cold War? I do think that the world is at an interesting tipping point. China has spent decades increasing their economy and investing heavily in foreign infrastructure, particularly in Africa. Its global influence is ever growing. I do expect them to become the world authority in years to come and I can definitely see Trump’s hyper-nationalistic only accelerating that switch. I personally don’t foresee any stopping them though. They play the long game. No guarantees with China. They have big problems coming down the pipe with its ageing population. And keeping 1.5bn people happy when the jobs start disappearing with AI and robotics is gonna be interesting. When that many people inevitably start revolting against a disgusting authoritarian regime anything can happen......
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Post by wannabee on Feb 23, 2024 0:13:39 GMT
A stopped Clock is correct twice a day Railing against the insanity doesn't change the reality, that Trump is likely to be the next President of the US and all that entails for Friend or Foe alike. The World is more actively volatile now than it has been in the last 75 years. Conflicts in relatively small Countries Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas have huge repercussions in the World Order Financially and Geopolitically 20 of 31 NATO Countries do not fulfil the commitment to NATO of spending 2% of GDP on Defence including Germany, France and Italy 3 of the G7 Some posts today on different threads suggest that UK Government/Politics should confine to Domestic issues, that is naive, but possibly a reflection of what influence UK has now or going forward In other events taking place in the World, besides Trumps likely Election China the 2nd Largest Economy in the World is facing a major Economic downturn. Socially this is very bad news because Youth Unemployment is so high partially responsible for the Bankrupcy of the biggest Property Company in the World Evergrande meaning young people can't afford to buy a house. In the one child policy this upsets the Social Order of the Younger Generation looking after the Older. These Domestic problems are unlikely to greatly upset Western Countries but it will mean the Chinese Consumers will no longer be buying Apple Phones, Volkswagon Cars or Burberry Coats and demand for Western Materials to grow the Economy will be limited Indonesia projected to be the 6th largest Economy in the World by 2026, ironically accelerated to overtake Russia due to Russia's War. It has the World's largest Muslim Population, it is the 3rd largest, allegedly, Democracy in the World, it has the 4th Largest Population in the World. For the last 10 years the Economy has prospered after the Suharto Dictatorship. The most expected Candidate to win the current Presidential Election Prabowo favours the old Military approach. Pakistan, another Democracy apparently, with the 5th largest population in the World economically is a Basket Case. 40% of the Population live in poverty using the $3 per day measure. It also happens to be a Neuclear Power. We have seen the current disputed Elections where the previously jailed exPM Sharif is claiming victory over the currently jailed exPM Imran Khan. Pakistans closest allay is China but despite certain differences is also close allay to Iran depending on who is in control India, another Neuclear Power and the most populous Country in the World claims to be the largest Democracy in the World. That might be true if you discount the 20% non Hindu Population So we have the proposition by the end of 2024 some of the largest and most populous Countries in the World will be governed by psedo or actual Dictators Trump: Xi: Prabowo: Sharif: Modi: Putin: Netanyahu: Khamenei, there are others I could mention The only glimmer is that all of the above are into their seventies and with any luck might Fuck Off soon. Who are the replacements waiting in line? Do you think that it is more unstable though, or do you think that recency bias is to play? A lot has gone on in Eastern Europe (in particular) since the end of WW2. Is it more unstable now than it was during the Cold War? I do think that the world is at an interesting tipping point. China has spent decades increasing their economy and investing heavily in foreign infrastructure, particularly in Africa. Its global influence is ever growing. I do expect them to become the world authority in years to come and I can definitely see Trump’s hyper-nationalistic only accelerating that switch. I personally don’t foresee any stopping them though. They play the long game. I would say the World is more at an intersection than Interesting Russia is a busted Flush no matter the outcome of the present Conflict, Ukraine may become collateral I won't be around to see the outworkings, you may well do There is a new Sheriff in Town and that's China. It has no reason to exhaust its resources on intercine conflicts when as you say Investment will achieve the same objective to win Hearts and Minds Europe like a wily Old Whore will find ways to survive. Why UK has chosen an isolationist position is quite beyond me. It's something of a myth that Chines people think long term, they don't, any more than US people (I know you have Chinese family and it may not apply but I'm speaking in generalisation) As long as the Chinese Government can raise the standard of living incrementally there will not be Civil unrest. This shortermism stems from the collective doctrine of Mao that eradicated religious concepts of a hereafter unlike the last great Chinese Qing Dynasty. From Roman to Khan, Ottoman British and others in between each Empire ultimately fails India on the other hand truly are longtermists If you have a belief that when you die you may return as a Butterfly or a Bollywood Star then the pressures of daily life become bearable (I realise not all Hindus believe this but a majority do) With an enormous population it only takes a small percentage to be truly gifted. Silicon Valley is dominated by Indian Tech Million/Billionaires. How many decades it will take for India to challenge China for the No 1 position is hard to say, but it will be ⁶relatively short. As for our friends in the Middle East they are on a sticky wicket. Their natural resources are on a countdown both actually and ethically. Diversification into a Las Vegas type destination only works so far. A small population is easily controlled with trinkets but Neighbouring Nutjobs threaten the equilibrium as it will for Israel with a weakened benefactor Overall the Trump and Biden sideshow is a portent of US decay. It won't be swift, but it will be incremental
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 23, 2024 0:31:42 GMT
Do you think that it is more unstable though, or do you think that recency bias is to play? A lot has gone on in Eastern Europe (in particular) since the end of WW2. Is it more unstable now than it was during the Cold War? I do think that the world is at an interesting tipping point. China has spent decades increasing their economy and investing heavily in foreign infrastructure, particularly in Africa. Its global influence is ever growing. I do expect them to become the world authority in years to come and I can definitely see Trump’s hyper-nationalistic only accelerating that switch. I personally don’t foresee any stopping them though. They play the long game. I would say the World is more at an intersection than Interesting Russia is a busted Flush no matter the outcome of the present Conflict, Ukraine may become collateral I won't be around to see the outworkings, you may well do There is a new Sheriff in Town and that's China. It has no reason to exhaust its resources on intercine conflicts when as you say Investment will achieve the same objective to win Hearts and Minds Europe like a wily Old Whore will find ways to survive. Why UK has chosen an isolationist position is quite beyond me. It's something of a myth that Chines people think long term, they don't, any more than US people (I know you have Chinese family and it may not apply but I'm speaking in generalisation) As long as the Chinese Government can raise the standard of living incrementally there will not be Civil unrest. This shortermism stems from the collective doctrine of Mao that eradicated religious concepts of a hereafter unlike the last great Chinese Qing Dynasty. From Roman to Khan, Ottoman British and others in between each Empire ultimately fails India on the other hand truly are longtermists If you have a belief that when you die you may return as a Butterfly or a Bollywood Star then the pressures of daily life become bearable (I realise not all Hindus believe this but a majority do) With an enormous population it only takes a small percentage to be truly gifted. Silicon Valley is dominated by Indian Tech Million/Billionaires. How many decades it will take for India to challenge China for the No 1 position is hard to say, but it will be ⁶relatively short. As for our friends in the Middle East they are on a sticky wicket. Their natural resources are on a countdown both actually and ethically. Diversification into a Las Vegas type destination only works so far. A small population is easily controlled with trinkets but Neighbouring Nutjobs threaten the equilibrium as it will for Israel with a weakened benefactor Overall the Trump and Biden sideshow is a portent of US decay. It won't be swift, but it will be incremental A few of things: 1) I best be here to see the aftermath, I’m only 32! 2) When I said long-term, I meant politically speaking not generationally. I do thoroughly believe that China has a plan that stretches 10, 15 or 20 years. Their efforts are consistent and they are generally not reactionary to the whims of a people that vote for a fresh start every 4-5 years. Even with a change in leadership structure, it’s still the CCP. Policies evolve but aren’t often outright torn up. 3) I agree r.e., India. I’d be surprised if China manages to last 70 years at head of the table. However, I do fully expect them to be there at some point in the future. 4) I don’t believe that an isolationist policy is good for anyone, especially not in a globalist economy. People won’t just leave you alone because you bury your head in the sand.
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Post by atillathehoneybee on Feb 25, 2024 5:55:32 GMT
Just won South Carolina. There is no stopping him. If the Democrats are gonna remove Biden and persuade Michelle Obama then it has to be soon, otherwise she will not have time to mount a credible campaign..
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Post by adri2008 on Feb 25, 2024 9:14:04 GMT
A few of things: 1) I best be here to see the aftermath, I’m only 32! 2) When I said long-term, I meant politically speaking not generationally. I do thoroughly believe that China has a plan that stretches 10, 15 or 20 years. Their efforts are consistent and they are generally not reactionary to the whims of a people that vote for a fresh start every 4-5 years. Even with a change in leadership structure, it’s still the CCP. Policies evolve but aren’t often outright torn up. 3) I agree r.e., India. I’d be surprised if China manages to last 70 years at head of the table. However, I do fully expect them to be there at some point in the future. 4) I don’t believe that an isolationist policy is good for anyone, especially not in a globalist economy. People won’t just leave you alone because you bury your head in the sand. The benefit of what is effectively a dictatorship in China is that it can plan for the country's needs decades into the future without having to worry about the whims of the electorate. This is much harder to achieve in western democracies as government's are primarily geared towards dishing out goodies in the short term and booting anything difficult into the long grass. See our energy policy, big infrastructure projects etc etc. In China, these projects would simply get done - here every single contentious issue is immediately bogged down in consultations, legal challenges etc which the government is more than happy to accommodate and drag out so that a decision doesn't get made on its watch.
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Feb 25, 2024 9:45:22 GMT
I saw an article where he was saying black voters are voting for him as they feel empathy with him over his indictments! 😂😂😂 Reminded me of Robert Downey Jr in Tropic Thunder! 😂 www.itv.com/news/2024-02-24/trump-says-his-criminal-indictments-boost-his-appeal-to-black-voters"And a lot of people said that’s why the Black people like me, because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against, and they actually viewed me as I’m being discriminated against. "It’s been pretty amazing but possibly, maybe, there’s something there."
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 25, 2024 12:30:01 GMT
A few of things: 1) I best be here to see the aftermath, I’m only 32! 2) When I said long-term, I meant politically speaking not generationally. I do thoroughly believe that China has a plan that stretches 10, 15 or 20 years. Their efforts are consistent and they are generally not reactionary to the whims of a people that vote for a fresh start every 4-5 years. Even with a change in leadership structure, it’s still the CCP. Policies evolve but aren’t often outright torn up. 3) I agree r.e., India. I’d be surprised if China manages to last 70 years at head of the table. However, I do fully expect them to be there at some point in the future. 4) I don’t believe that an isolationist policy is good for anyone, especially not in a globalist economy. People won’t just leave you alone because you bury your head in the sand. The benefit of what is effectively a dictatorship in China is that it can plan for the country's needs decades into the future without having to worry about the whims of the electorate. This is much harder to achieve in western democracies as government's are primarily geared towards dishing out goodies in the short term and booting anything difficult into the long grass. See our energy policy, big infrastructure projects etc etc. In China, these projects would simply get done - here every single contentious issue is immediately bogged down in consultations, legal challenges etc which the government is more than happy to accommodate and drag out so that a decision doesn't get made on its watch. Your point on infrastructure made me think of this: www.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/06/16/10-story-building-constructed-in-one-day-orig.cnn-businessI would never want to live in China but their system does have some advantages. I’m sure Trump would love to push the U.S. towards dictatorship. I doubt he’d be the one to actually achieve it but if it were to happen in a generation or so, he’d be the one to start it.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Feb 25, 2024 20:55:08 GMT
Just won South Carolina. There is no stopping him. If the Democrats are gonna remove Biden and persuade Michelle Obama then it has to be soon, otherwise she will not have time to mount a credible campaign.. South Carolina you say? /mediaViewer?currentTweet=1761626052982349928¤tTweetUser=RpsAgainstTrump
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Post by elystokie on Feb 25, 2024 21:10:29 GMT
Just won South Carolina. There is no stopping him. If the Democrats are gonna remove Biden and persuade Michelle Obama then it has to be soon, otherwise she will not have time to mount a credible campaign.. South Carolina you say? /mediaViewer?currentTweet=1761626052982349928¤tTweetUser=RpsAgainstTrump That is absolutely hilarious 😂 Just as well for them 3 there's no intelligence test to pass in order to cast a vote 😄
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Post by adri2008 on Feb 25, 2024 23:03:54 GMT
I can sort of understand voting for Trump as an only alternative to the clearly mentally unfit Biden but I don't understand the fervour of some of the Trump supporters. The bloke is a loud mouth and a highly unpleasant character yet he seems to do no wrong in many supporters eyes.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Feb 26, 2024 6:31:33 GMT
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Post by roylandstoke on Feb 26, 2024 9:14:31 GMT
I can sort of understand voting for Trump as an only alternative to the clearly mentally unfit Biden but I don't understand the fervour of some of the Trump supporters. The bloke is a loud mouth and a highly unpleasant character yet he seems to do no wrong in many supporters eyes. He is also a fraud and a rapist.
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Post by lordb on Feb 26, 2024 12:21:02 GMT
I can sort of understand voting for Trump as an only alternative to the clearly mentally unfit Biden but I don't understand the fervour of some of the Trump supporters. The bloke is a loud mouth and a highly unpleasant character yet he seems to do no wrong in many supporters eyes. He is also a fraud and a rapist. And a complete moron
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Post by wagsastokie on Feb 26, 2024 14:37:50 GMT
He is also a fraud and a rapist. And a complete moron And Americans will still vote for him thank fuck we got rid of them in the late 1700s
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Post by georgeberrysafro on Feb 26, 2024 14:46:01 GMT
Amazingly, Fox news also cut from one of his campaign speeches last week and called out his lies with a fact check.
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 26, 2024 15:17:28 GMT
Amazingly, Fox news also cut from one of his campaign speeches last week and called out his lies with a fact check. A number of the Fox presenters are not completely drunk on the Kool-Aid. However, the ones that are typically take up the prime time spots.
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Post by lordb on Feb 26, 2024 17:18:43 GMT
And Americans will still vote for him thank fuck we got rid of them in the late 1700s They got rid of us to be fair Imagine if they hadn't, how horrendous would that be
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Post by wagsastokie on Feb 26, 2024 17:31:53 GMT
And Americans will still vote for him thank fuck we got rid of them in the late 1700s They got rid of us to be fair Imagine if they hadn't, how horrendous would that be Personally I think it was more that we couldn’t be arsed to keep the pesky colonials
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 28, 2024 21:03:13 GMT
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Post by Paul Spencer on Mar 4, 2024 14:34:58 GMT
When they come off Facebook and have to engage with the real world! 🤦♂️
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Post by jimmygscfc1234 on Mar 4, 2024 15:58:08 GMT
She's a stupid cult morelike.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 4, 2024 16:21:16 GMT
Really? The GOP want to install a Putin-style dictatorship. To the GOP things are only bad or a "loss" if they stop the GOP from isntalling their Supreme Leader. How does Mitch McConnell stepping down help democracy? I don't see it.
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Post by cvillestokie on Mar 4, 2024 17:26:55 GMT
Really? The GOP want to install a Putin-style dictatorship. To the GOP things are only bad or a "loss" if they stop the GOP from isntalling their Supreme Leader. How does Mitch McConnell stepping down help democracy? I don't see it. I don’t think it helps democracy. I also don’t believe that most of the GOP do want the type of leader that you suggest. I think that’s what the “Freedom Caucas” want though. Anyways, I just passed my citizenship exam this morning, so I’ll be in line voting in the hope that this orange coward doesn’t return.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 5, 2024 16:04:20 GMT
Really? The GOP want to install a Putin-style dictatorship. To the GOP things are only bad or a "loss" if they stop the GOP from isntalling their Supreme Leader. How does Mitch McConnell stepping down help democracy? I don't see it. I don’t think it helps democracy. I also don’t believe that most of the GOP do want the type of leader that you suggest. I think that’s what the “Freedom Caucas” want though. Anyways, I just passed my citizenship exam this morning, so I’ll be in line voting in the hope that this orange coward doesn’t return. Good luck with the voting. I hope it's not the last time it actually matters. With the GOP I don't think you're right. I think most of them in the House and many in the Senate are fine with it. They actively protected Trump, more than half voted against respecting the last election and they installed Mike Johnson as speaker. That's what they *did* rather than what they *said*. Look at the corruption, cruelty and crimes they got away with. Children thrown en masse into cages, openly supporting in words and actions war criminals, people boasting about running concentration camps etc. People like Mike Pence who saved democracy last time will be purged from the next Trump administration. Republicans are pushing for Putin style dictatorship and unless there's a blue wave there will be one more huge step towards killing American democracy.
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Post by cvillestokie on Mar 5, 2024 22:01:53 GMT
I don’t think it helps democracy. I also don’t believe that most of the GOP do want the type of leader that you suggest. I think that’s what the “Freedom Caucas” want though. Anyways, I just passed my citizenship exam this morning, so I’ll be in line voting in the hope that this orange coward doesn’t return. Good luck with the voting. I hope it's not the last time it actually matters. With the GOP I don't think you're right. I think most of them in the House and many in the Senate are fine with it. They actively protected Trump, more than half voted against respecting the last election and they installed Mike Johnson as speaker. That's what they *did* rather than what they *said*. Look at the corruption, cruelty and crimes they got away with. Children thrown en masse into cages, openly supporting in words and actions war criminals, people boasting about running concentration camps etc. People like Mike Pence who saved democracy last time will be purged from the next Trump administration. Republicans are pushing for Putin style dictatorship and unless there's a blue wave there will be one more huge step towards killing American democracy. The kids in cages argument was a great talking point for Biden. It’s a real shame that they went and did the same thing: www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/2/24/us-to-allow-migrants-from-mexico-as-critics-slam-kids-in-cagesBiden has been openly very supportive of Netanyahu, for example, who has endorsed IDF war crimes. I don’t think it’s as black and white as you make it. More black and grey.
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 5, 2024 22:12:29 GMT
For me it's like black-black versus light grey. The Trump administration actively decided to separate families. It was a campaign of mass child abuse against thousands of children, and there was no need, no pressure and no consequences for them *not* doing it. They actively chose to be brutal, evil bastards. The Biden administration has done nothing of the sort to my knowledge. With lack of funding and a desire to not fully open the borders, it's true they have used detention centres, but there's no policy to separate families and cage the children. But I can't find anything where they ordered the separation of families, only when they started to work to reunite families. Put the things each of them has done side by side... There's not even remote moral equivalence for me.
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Mar 6, 2024 9:46:21 GMT
Why didn't he win Vermont? 😁
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Post by noustie on Mar 6, 2024 12:05:04 GMT
How the fuck has the top dog of the 'free' world gotten to a place where they've these pair of doddering old corrupt perverts to vote for as next President?
The mind absolutely boggles - genuinely don't get how anyone can have a preference. It's like having to pick which of two folk you're going to allow to hoof you in the bollocks based on which one appears to have the lesser muscle mass.
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Post by cvillestokie on Mar 6, 2024 12:36:57 GMT
How the fuck has the top dog of the 'free' world gotten to a place where they've these pair of doddering old corrupt perverts to vote for as next President? The mind absolutely boggles - genuinely don't get how anyone can have a preference. It's like having to pick which of two folk you're going to allow to hoof you in the bollocks based on which one appears to have the lesser muscle mass. For Trump, it’s populism. His whole shtick has always been that anything that happens to me happens to you (apart from bankruptcy, being drafted and now sexual assault) and because he says things in his campaigns that people condemn (like mocking the disabled or questioning whether Obama was American because he’s black), people love him for it. If he wins, he’ll probably seek a third term and then endorse one of his kids or Tim Scott. For Biden, it’s the DNC’s age old problem of being unable to have a clear vision of what they want for the future. The party’s views are way too diverse and that can be seen in the 2020 primary. With that, they simply can’t groom a logical successor.
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Post by georgeberrysafro on Mar 6, 2024 13:42:46 GMT
How the fuck has the top dog of the 'free' world gotten to a place where they've these pair of doddering old corrupt perverts to vote for as next President? The mind absolutely boggles - genuinely don't get how anyone can have a preference. It's like having to pick which of two folk you're going to allow to hoof you in the bollocks based on which one appears to have the lesser muscle mass. It's quite simple really. Anyone that votes for Trump or supports his MAGA idiots are braindead. We know for fact Trump is a corrupt old pervert, where's the evidence for Biden though? He's just old.
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