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Post by kidsgrove4 on Apr 6, 2009 5:16:12 GMT
Mathematically..........if you look at the three bottom teams, the team third last on 29 points has a possibility of another 21 points.
We all know that this isn't going to happen, but the mathematical equation is that anybody (this week) who has 51 points is safe.
This will change over the next 7 weeks, and will reduce every time the bottom 3 drop points. As we stand now the target for safety is 51......................................
I think 43 will be the safety marker when it gets to the last two weeks.
Thoughts Anyone ?
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Post by s8to on Apr 6, 2009 6:11:36 GMT
Not sure ultimately it will be above the 40 mark TBH
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Post by seychellesstokie on Apr 6, 2009 6:52:47 GMT
Apart from the extreme unlikelihood, it must already be less than the theoretical 51 points. If we were to be relegated, 5 of the 7 teams below us have to overtake us. Glancing down the remaining fixtures there are 9 games where these 7 teams face each other so maximum points all round are not available.
Realistically, it looks like 40 will be enough. Win the next 2 home games and we've done it but that might be a tad optimistic. I'll be happy if we are safe by the time we go to Arsenal and delirious if it comes sooner than that.
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Post by basingstokie on Apr 6, 2009 7:27:17 GMT
I think s8to is correct, 40 points will mean safety, but looking at 251's posting, he is correct until we are at least 3 * no. of games left for 18th place team points clear then we could be relegated.
The chances of 18th winning those games is quite remote, but IMO, we will not be mathematically safe until 2nd to last game, although we will think we have done enough.
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Post by monkeycat on Apr 6, 2009 7:27:58 GMT
4 points from our next 2 games and we will be safe IMO  |
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Post by Kelkerstokie on Apr 6, 2009 8:15:53 GMT
I honestly think 39 points will see safety. Need 41 to guarantee, but 38 will see a team go down.
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Post by knowles on Apr 6, 2009 8:21:54 GMT
It would be nice to pick up a couple of victories against Newcastle and Blackburn to allow our trips to Fulham, Hull and Arsenal to be nothing but a fight for Europe  Seriously, two more wins will definately do it. We are capable of winning our next two but to win four on the spin is a huge ask. |
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Post by Kenilworth_Stokies on Apr 6, 2009 8:53:52 GMT
Accuse me of stating the obvious if you will, but all we have to do is vaguely match the points scoring rate of the 3rd bottom team, wheras they've got to exceed ours by an extra two wins out of the next seven games. I like that.
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Post by Dr Oetcake on Apr 6, 2009 8:56:07 GMT
I cant Brazil doing anything now,so they are gone, the problem is as Blackburn are showing, any of the teams below us bar Brazil could put a run together, thats why its critical we beat Newcastle, if we beat them, get a point away at Hull then any 3 from 15 and that'll do us!
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Post by sheikh al dubai bin stokie on Apr 6, 2009 9:00:50 GMT
I cant Brazil doing anything now,so they are gone, the problem is as Blackburn are showing, any of the teams below us bar Brazil could put a run together, thats why its critical we beat Newcastle, if we beat them, get a point away at Hull then any 3 from 15 and that'll do us! there are people on the westbrom.com boards that seriously think they can win their remaining 7 games and stay up. you've got to admire them.... otherwise you'd pity them |
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Post by stokecityscott on Apr 6, 2009 9:02:19 GMT
37 points will be enough, considering the other teams run ins they wont be picking up any points
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Post by knowles on Apr 6, 2009 9:11:01 GMT
I think Baggies and Boro are down. In my opinion it is now just a scrap between Newcastle and the terribly out of form Hull and Sunderland. I'd love to see Nwecastle go down but equally I've got a fiver on Hull, WBA and Middlesbrough to go down at 12/1. So long as we don't go down though, I don't really care. |
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Post by sorethumbs on Apr 6, 2009 9:39:02 GMT
I reckon we only need to beat Newcastle and one from Blackburn or Hull (Most likely Blackburn - be satisfied with a draw at Hull) and regardless of other results we'd be safe. Beat those teams below us and I don't think they'll have a chance of overtaking us with so few remaining games. For the first time this season I finally think we'll finish above Hull, even though their run-in is probably as favourable as ours
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Post by march4 on Apr 6, 2009 9:45:07 GMT
This worried me to death, but I did the predictor thingy on BBC and we were relegated with 41 points by goal difference.
I think the record high points total in the Prem for a relegated team is 42 (Wet Sham in 2003). Must say that Blunderland and Brazil were well adrift that season, which naturally contributes to a higher points total for everyone else.
In conclusion, then 4 more points might not be enough. The quicker we get to 43 the happier I will be!!!!
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Post by stokiemac on Apr 6, 2009 10:43:21 GMT
40 should be easilly enough points
cant see newcastle getting 11 and boro 13 points from their remaining games
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Post by stokie01 on Apr 6, 2009 11:11:45 GMT
pfft, were safe already
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Post by sheikhmomo on Apr 6, 2009 11:14:10 GMT
Complacency is the biggest enemy now. You only have to think that we have already gone 9 games without a win once this season. Is it too unrealistic for it to happen again? Probably but not impossible. |
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Post by stokie716 on Apr 6, 2009 11:15:59 GMT
Accuse me of stating the obvious if you will, but all we have to do is vaguely match the points scoring rate of the 3rd bottom team, wheras they've got to exceed ours by an extra two wins out of the next seven games. I like that. i like that too |
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Post by Targaryen Stokie on Apr 6, 2009 11:18:08 GMT
You also have to think about who the bottom teams are facing, such as Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool etc. Usually the big boys do well near the end of the season.
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Post by luke45 on Apr 6, 2009 11:21:11 GMT
Maybe i'm too optimistic but i see 5 wins from our remaining 7 games giving us a total of 50 points ;D
I can see us winning ALL our remaining home games, and also picking up 3 points at Hull.
I agree with Knowles though, 2 more wins should be job done in terms of survival. It'd be nice to make a big push for a top 10 finish though, which is well within our grasp.
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Post by march4 on Apr 6, 2009 11:26:29 GMT
17th place will still do for me, but with extra prize money for every position, it will be nice to finish 13th.
It would be incredible if we could get above Man Citeh.
Our relegation prospects could be decided by Brazil and Boro. If they can pick up points off our rivals then we will stay up easily. If they capitulate completely, then we will need over 42 to feel safe.
I really don't want to go into the last game knowing that a series of freak results would relegate us. It happened to Sheff Utd a couple of years ago.
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Post by garyhackett on Apr 6, 2009 12:34:39 GMT
I think Baggies and Boro are down. In my opinion it is now just a scrap between Newcastle and the terribly out of form Hull and Sunderland. I'd love to see Newcastle go down ... Completely agree with that Knowles and i think 1 win and a couple of draws is all we need to stay up. |
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Post by Kenilworth_Stokies on Apr 6, 2009 12:47:59 GMT
Even if we only managed to get draws against Newcastle and Hull we'd effectively dent their abilities to overtake us so much it'd make it practically impossible for them to overtake us. All we've got to do is maintain that gap to be safe.
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Post by Not_Nick_H on Apr 6, 2009 12:48:31 GMT
17th place will still do for me, but with extra prize money for every position, it will be nice to finish 13th. It would be incredible if we could get above Man Citeh. Our relegation prospects could be decided by Brazil and Boro. If they can pick up points off our rivals then we will stay up easily. If they capitulate completely, then we will need over 42 to feel safe. I really don't want to go into the last game knowing that a series of freak results would relegate us. It happened to Sheff Utd a couple of years ago. 42 will do nicely. Safety and a pitch invasion on May 16th???? |
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Post by Paul Spencer on Apr 6, 2009 12:55:58 GMT
I think if we beat Newcastle then we will be safe. Newcastle would then have to win three (they've only won six all season!) or win two and draw three (therefore only losing one) of their remaining six games AND we would have to lose EVERY SINGLE ONE of our remaining six games on the bounce in order for them to overtake us (on goal difference at that!). Neither scenario is likely to happen yet BOTH of these things would have to happen in order for the Geordies to finish above us. Furthermore a team hasn't EVER been relegated from the Premier league that was on 38pts with six games to go. It is actually possible (if results go our way) for us to be mathematically safe after our very NEXT (Fulham) away game! |
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Post by lancer on Apr 6, 2009 13:06:11 GMT
Accuse me of stating the obvious if you will, but all we have to do is vaguely match the points scoring rate of the 3rd bottom team, wheras they've got to exceed ours by an extra two wins out of the next seven games. I like that. Spot on, mate. That's all we need, and we are more than capable of achieving that. The real presssure is not on us. And winning any one more match and a couple of draws will be enough. |
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Post by northantsash on Apr 6, 2009 13:36:31 GMT
realism is the key here:
-the baggies arent going to win 6 of their 7 games, realistically they will struggle to reach 30 points.
-boro are playing awfully of late and cant see them getting more than 7 or 8 from the last 7 matches, that puts them on 35 at best.
-castle arent playing well, but if one of the bottom 3 has the ability to improve its probably them, but at best 11 or 12 points puts them on 41.
-sunderland are sinking at the moment and not scoring many goals, could be 41 or thereabouts.
- hull, oh dear, liverpool, villa and man utd all still to play. tough games at bolton and boro as well. could struggle to get any more than 41.
- pompey - game in hand, still man utd and arsenal to face but key games against others down the bottom, plus west brom at home on sat could just pull them far enough clear.
- blackburn - chelsea and liverpool still to play. but probably have enough. tip them to pick up 10 so putting them on 44.
- stoke - see us being able to take 7 points at home and they possibly pick up 2 or 3 away, putting us safe on 44 or 45 points.
possible sides to go down:
wba 30 pts
boro 35 pts
sunderland 40 pts/ newcastle 40 pts
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Post by barmystokie1 on Apr 6, 2009 14:26:54 GMT
for me Newcastle is the key ....
As long as we dont LOSE to them then they have to make up 6 points against us and assume we will not pick up any more points up all season, which is possible,...
but the players should be buzzing now after their 1st away victory and they will know that a win against the geordies would be huge and that the atmosphere should be electric
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Post by jacka118 on Apr 6, 2009 14:33:44 GMT
We could stay up on 35 and we could go down on 40 - its too unpredicatable
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Post by march4 on Apr 6, 2009 14:49:40 GMT
We could stay up on 35 and we could go down on 40 - its too unpredicatable We could go down on 42 points - its happened before! |
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