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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 12, 2021 9:56:07 GMT
Generic probability of Fletcher scoring (if Brown passed to him) 0.03Generic probability of Clucas scoring, 0.30. Specific player/foot based probabilities. Fletcher has had 34 open play chances similar to the one he would have been presented with and he's scored once. 1 in 34Clucas has had 14 chances similar to the one Brown created for him *on his right foot* and he's scored four. 4 in 14 or 1 in 3.5Brown set up a chance for Clucas that was 10 times better than the one he would have set up for Fletcher, both generically and using player/preferred foot, historical data. Jacob Brown, 10/10 for football intelligence. That whistle you hear is the sound of Bayern's piss boiling btw. No piss boiling. It was the wrong thing to do.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 12, 2021 9:57:19 GMT
Great header but he’s not a footballer and it showed. I’m just glad he’s reinforcing your lack of knowledge. You must be seething, although you’ll no doubt say something like “how can I be seething when he won us the game, that’s stupid” but we all know you hate being wrong so this must stick in your craw 😂 He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot.
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Post by Little Gary Patel on Sept 12, 2021 10:00:19 GMT
OOF.
An absolute body bagging. RIP bayern.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 12, 2021 10:00:21 GMT
It was tbf but I thought he generally had Brown in his back pocket. Someone mentioned his pace earlier but he didn’t show any today imo. That bloke just ate him up and spat him out. Couldn't tell if it was just Brown being slower than normal but that defender looked proper rapid on a couple of chase backs. He was just quick I think. And massive so hard to get around.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 12, 2021 10:00:57 GMT
OOF.
An absolute body bagging. RIP bayern. Not at all. Fletcher was in a much position. Some crap stats on hypotheticals won’t change that.
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Post by Little Gary Patel on Sept 12, 2021 10:01:30 GMT
from beyond the grave
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Post by Royal Donut on Sept 12, 2021 10:06:44 GMT
I’m just glad he’s reinforcing your lack of knowledge. You must be seething, although you’ll no doubt say something like “how can I be seething when he won us the game, that’s stupid” but we all know you hate being wrong so this must stick in your craw 😂 He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. Tell me he's not an massively improved player, and was the better of the two up top yesterday (which wasn't too hard tbh). We need players that run alot also, closing down teams is a big part of our game, much better than players like Vokes (again not hard, not doing myself any favours mentioning him) Bascaily we had players that have had quality but couldn't be arsed, but I feel we are getting a team together that actually want to play for the badge.
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Post by mickstupp on Sept 12, 2021 10:08:19 GMT
I’m just glad he’s reinforcing your lack of knowledge. You must be seething, although you’ll no doubt say something like “how can I be seething when he won us the game, that’s stupid” but we all know you hate being wrong so this must stick in your craw 😂 He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 12, 2021 10:12:24 GMT
He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. Tell me he's not an massively improved player, and was the better of the two up top yesterday (which wasn't too hard tbh). We need players that run alot also, closing down teams is a big part of our game, much better than players like Vokes (again not hard, not doing myself any favours mentioning him) Bascaily we had players that have had quality but couldn't be arsed, but I feel we are getting a team together that actually want to play for the badge. I think he’s improved and he was clearly the better of the two. I thought our whole attack didn’t work though. And I can’t wait for Powell, Campbell and Sima to come in. It’s a really exciting proposition.
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Post by RedandWhite90 on Sept 12, 2021 10:13:03 GMT
He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. Be top of the list if Souttar goes in Jan.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 12, 2021 10:14:36 GMT
He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. No I totally agree. He was very good and had Brown in his pocket. But that doesn’t seem to be the consensus here. I thought the two up front yesterday did very little. Definitely not worth a thread of praise at least. Great header, good running if you like that sort of thing but nowt else.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 12, 2021 10:20:55 GMT
He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. No I totally agree. He was very good and had Brown in his pocket. But that doesn’t seem to be the consensus here. I thought the two up front yesterday did very little. Definitely not worth a thread of praise at least. Great header, good running if you like that sort of thing but nowt else. My positivity partly comes from a few times yday with his back to goal, he actually held it up and found a Stoke player from some difficult positions. Ok, he was pretty ineffective for a lot of it, but massively improved control and awareness so I think he could have some great performances this season when he's not being marked by that human tank. The most exciting thing is his trajectory, and I want to be positive about lads with Brown's attitude.
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Post by Royal Donut on Sept 12, 2021 10:26:27 GMT
Tell me he's not an massively improved player, and was the better of the two up top yesterday (which wasn't too hard tbh). We need players that run alot also, closing down teams is a big part of our game, much better than players like Vokes (again not hard, not doing myself any favours mentioning him) Bascaily we had players that have had quality but couldn't be arsed, but I feel we are getting a team together that actually want to play for the badge. I think he’s improved and he was clearly the better of the two. I thought our whole attack didn’t work though. And I can’t wait for Powell, Campbell and Sima to come in. It’s a really exciting proposition. 100% Powell is the link up player from midfield to attack, apart from tymon yesterday,which he was massively under used, is the only other player that brakes the lines to the top two.
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 12, 2021 10:30:55 GMT
I’m just glad he’s reinforcing your lack of knowledge. You must be seething, although you’ll no doubt say something like “how can I be seething when he won us the game, that’s stupid” but we all know you hate being wrong so this must stick in your craw 😂 He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. No sorry he had a good game for him only a few comedy footballer moments which is quite a few less than normal. Battled and held it up far better than Surridge. Lots of options to come in real soon to compete for forward positions. Select them on merit and not favouritism and pre conceived ideas and I’m sure Brown will have a role to play though maybe not as an automatic starter. He’s improving, I doubt he’ll ever become what I consider a decent footballer but he certainly gives defenders plenty to think about.
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Post by nottsover60 on Sept 12, 2021 10:35:33 GMT
Admittedly knowing nothing at all about Sima I can see it being Brown and Campbell when both are fit.
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 12, 2021 10:36:33 GMT
He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. I thought the human tank looked quite vulnerable with the ball at his feet as Doughty nearly exploited late in the game by rushing him. I don’t think the starting forwards got much change out of him because he was physically superior and they perhaps didn’t pressure him enough when he had the ball.
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Post by theonlooker on Sept 12, 2021 10:38:02 GMT
He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. Naby Sarr?
Ex Charlton with Doughty. Bit of a camel most weeks though, with the odd good display, according to my Charlton supporting mate...
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 12, 2021 10:39:20 GMT
Admittedly knowing nothing at all about Sima I can see it being Brown and Campbell when both are fit. Hope MON doesn’t have such preconceived ideas. Play well or you’re out whatever your name is.
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Post by mickstupp on Sept 12, 2021 10:40:30 GMT
He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. I thought the human tank looked quite vulnerable with the ball at his feet as Doughty nearly exploited late in the game by rushing him. I don’t think the starting forwards got much change out of him because he was physically superior and they perhaps didn’t pressure him enough when he had the ball. Yeah he was technically vulnerable perhaps but as an actual stopper I thought he was impressive.
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 12, 2021 10:41:52 GMT
He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. Naby Sarr?
Ex Charlton with Doughty. Bit of a camel most weeks though, with the odd good display, according to my Charlton supporting mate... He looked it too. I think it was a weakness we barely tried to exploit. Solid defender but very suspect with the ball. See Batth.
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Post by leesandfordstoupe on Sept 12, 2021 10:45:37 GMT
I thought the human tank looked quite vulnerable with the ball at his feet as Doughty nearly exploited late in the game by rushing him. I don’t think the starting forwards got much change out of him because he was physically superior and they perhaps didn’t pressure him enough when he had the ball. Yeah he was technically vulnerable perhaps but as an actual stopper I thought he was impressive. I couldn’t see it but there must have been something worrying about their forwards. Big Harry never once drove out past them with the ball. Which I think makes our play out from the back far too predictable.
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Post by potterburt on Sept 12, 2021 10:47:42 GMT
OOF.
An absolute body bagging. RIP bayern. Not at all. Fletcher was in a much position. Some crap stats on hypotheticals won’t change that. Crap stats on hypotheticals!?!?!? 😂 oh dear Bayern. So instead of stats that back up an argument to a hypothetical scenario which was given by a poster that gives good insight on this forum and looks at sports data analysis as a living… …Instead of that? - you think we want to see 4 pages of your hypothetical bollox drivel and that your hypothetical is more warranted??Unbelievable! You’ve got some real issues. I do truly feel sorry for you.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2021 10:49:34 GMT
He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. I thought the human tank looked quite vulnerable with the ball at his feet as Doughty nearly exploited late in the game by rushing him. I don’t think the starting forwards got much change out of him because he was physically superior and they perhaps didn’t pressure him enough when he had the ball. I'm under the opinion that you need three for an effective press over 90 minutes. It certainly has felt like that to me when we have either a) had Brown, Fletcher and Powell on or b) has Surridge, Brown and Vrancic on. In both of those trios, we have two good pressers, but it doesn't look as effective as there's always one angle immediately open for a pass. In short, I think we lacked the full set (Brown, Surridge and Powell) to really be effective over a long period at the high press yesterday.
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Post by a on Sept 12, 2021 10:53:11 GMT
I’m just glad he’s reinforcing your lack of knowledge. You must be seething, although you’ll no doubt say something like “how can I be seething when he won us the game, that’s stupid” but we all know you hate being wrong so this must stick in your craw 😂 He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. Silly me thinking he’d also scored! Doh!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2021 11:00:15 GMT
No, Fletcher who was in a great position on his preferred foot to bend it in the bottom corner. Rather than Clucas on his foot that is good for standing on. Again a sign of poor footballing intelligence for me. Generic probability of Fletcher scoring (if Brown passed to him) 0.03Generic probability of Clucas scoring, 0.30. Specific player/foot based probabilities. Fletcher has had 34 open play chances similar to the one he would have been presented with and he's scored once. 1 in 34Clucas has had 14 chances similar to the one Brown created for him *on his right foot* and he's scored four. 4 in 14 or 1 in 3.5Brown set up a chance for Clucas that was 10 times better than the one he would have set up for Fletcher, both generically and using player/preferred foot, historical data. Jacob Brown, 10/10 for football intelligence. I'm so glad that there is some actual data out there to back up my assertion that it was the correct pass. I was concerned the foot side would have made a huge difference, but seemingly not. Can I ask, how do you calculate "similar". 14 chances over the course of a long career just seems relatively less than I expected from a player who routinely makes these runs. Is it based on the tight position on the pitch or the xG (i.e. could it be anywhere on the pitch given a similar chance of scoring? I suppose that 0.30 is high though and it should likely only come from these kinds of areas anyway?). I'm also just surprised that Fletcher's conversion rates, even for harder chances is so low. Though I suppose that his success rate, 1 in 34, is pretty much bang on par with the 0.03 expected. If he wasn't such an average finisher, he would be perfect for most teams as he is very decent at much of the rest.
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Post by theonlooker on Sept 12, 2021 11:13:57 GMT
tachyonWhat are the most prolific scoring positions, or shots/headers on target positions for our strikers over the course of their careers? Basically, from what positions are they most useful and from what type of supply line? Crosses, low or high? Deep crosses or cut backs? Through balls from the left, right or centre? Type of through ball etc Assist positions?
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Post by nottsover60 on Sept 12, 2021 11:16:51 GMT
Admittedly knowing nothing at all about Sima I can see it being Brown and Campbell when both are fit. Hope MON doesn’t have such preconceived ideas. Play well or you’re out whatever your name is. Not preconceived ideas at all. I've admitted I have no idea how Sima plays so can't make a decision on him. At the moment, in my opinion, Campbell is the best goal scorer at the club and Brown is the player that defenders hate and who will give sweat blood and tears for the full 90 minutes so that is the partnership I can see playing. It gives you a clue how the players perceive Brown when MON says Brown is the one they like to see scoring most.
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Post by Sfance on Sept 12, 2021 11:20:54 GMT
Quiz time - what’s the difference between Bayern and Tachyon?
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Post by mickstupp on Sept 12, 2021 11:27:38 GMT
He wasn’t great yesterday by any stretch but he was being marked by what appeared to be a human tank. Credit to the opposition sometimes, no idea who his name is but he was an impressive defender I thought. Naby Sarr? Ex Charlton with Doughty. Bit of a camel most weeks though, with the odd good display, according to my Charlton supporting mate... We made him look like Marcel Desailly yesterday
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 12, 2021 11:39:57 GMT
He wasn’t very good yesterday so it’s not reinforcing anything bar Stoke fans like someone who runs a lot. No sorry he had a good game for him only a few comedy footballer moments which is quite a few less than normal. Battled and held it up far better than Surridge. Lots of options to come in real soon to compete for forward positions. Select them on merit and not favouritism and pre conceived ideas and I’m sure Brown will have a role to play though maybe not as an automatic starter. He’s improving, I doubt he’ll ever become what I consider a decent footballer but he certainly gives defenders plenty to think about. He was better than Surridge but neither played well. Brown should start over Surridge for sure.
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