|
|
Post by Gods on Apr 28, 2018 23:12:48 GMT
Here is what I think our problem is.
We have a long shot chance of catching either Huddersfield or Swansea but the trouble is we need to catch Huddersfield AND Swansea if we are to stay up since Southampton have more points, better goal difference and a game in hand and will finish above us for sure.
And that's why Bet365 and the others have Southampton at evens and us at 1/12 to go down.
|
|
|
|
Post by terrorofturfmoor on Apr 28, 2018 23:16:08 GMT
Not forgetting them Gods, we need a fuckin miracle now!!!  |
|
|
|
Post by soccerhq on Apr 28, 2018 23:16:52 GMT
Big problem I think is it's very unlikely Southampton-Swansea will finish in a draw.
Swansea win = 36 points.
Southampton win = 35 points so they'd need just 1 point from the other two to eliminate Stoke from the equation.
|
|
|
|
Post by benjaminbiscuit on Apr 28, 2018 23:17:30 GMT
Their last game is Man City I thunk , , their next Everton away , they could potentially do us a favour by winning at Swansea or drawing other results though wont matter if we dont win both games and that’s a very very long shot unless we score a 90 plus minute winner we don’t have to defend
|
|
|
|
Post by terrorofturfmoor on Apr 28, 2018 23:22:49 GMT
Personally, I'm hoping West Ham get dragged back into it.....
Man City (H)
Leicester (A)
Man Utd (H)
Everton (H)
The weakest one there being Everton home!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2018 23:36:13 GMT
Here is what I think our problem is. We have a long shot chance of catching either Huddersfield or Swansea but the trouble is we need to catch Huddersfield AND Swansea if we are to stay up since Southampton have more points, better goal difference and a game in hand and will finish above us for sure. And that's why Bet365 and the others have Southampton at evens and us at 1/12 to go down. What an insightful and penetrating mind you have Gods - I am in awe. No shit Sherlock. |
|
|
|
Post by scfcno1fan on Apr 28, 2018 23:49:56 GMT
Big problem I think is it's very unlikely Southampton-Swansea will finish in a draw. Swansea win = 36 points. Southampton win = 35 points so they'd need just 1 point from the other two to eliminate Stoke from the equation. That’s a good point. Realistically need Southampton to win that. Then lose their other two, which is possible. It’s just so hard to predict, so many different permutations. But that could easily happen. |
|
|
|
Post by musik on Apr 29, 2018 0:00:23 GMT
No, we are not.
Atm, Swansea-Southampton 2-1 might be the best result for us?!
|
|
|
|
Post by Edward Tattsyrup on Apr 29, 2018 0:50:57 GMT
Theres more chance of West Brom catching us than us staying up.
|
|
|
|
Post by Groundhog Day on Apr 29, 2018 1:00:21 GMT
This is all based on us winning the last two games. There's more chance of plaiting snot.
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2018 4:31:56 GMT
The annoying thing for me is that Swansea and Southampton play thier match mid week next week. If we win Sat against the Palace it could just prolong the wait. It may work in our favour though.
|
|
|
|
Post by robwahlmann on Apr 29, 2018 5:51:23 GMT
I really hope we'll be in a position where a win on the last day will make us stay up on the last day of the season. Should be a hell of a game and I seriously think we have a better team than Swansea. Would swap strikers with them though!  |
|
|
|
Post by heworksardtho on Apr 29, 2018 6:06:43 GMT
If we don’t win our next two games it doesn’t matter about anybody else
|
|
|
|
Post by Gods on Apr 29, 2018 6:24:22 GMT
Here is what I think our problem is. We have a long shot chance of catching either Huddersfield or Swansea but the trouble is we need to catch Huddersfield AND Swansea if we are to stay up since Southampton have more points, better goal difference and a game in hand and will finish above us for sure. And that's why Bet365 and the others have Southampton at evens and us at 1/12 to go down. What an insightful and penetrating mind you have Gods - I am in awe. No shit Sherlock. Take a look at the number of posters scratching their heads trying to work out which of Huddersfield or Swansea we might catch. You may have grasped it but others have not. |
|
|
|
Post by malteser68 on Apr 29, 2018 6:45:59 GMT
We’re not going to win 2 games in a row so i am resigned to relegation by now
I just hope southampton go down as well
|
|
|
|
Post by ColonelMustard on Apr 29, 2018 6:46:43 GMT
It's pretty simple now, we need to win both our games and cross our fingers. At least yesterday's point gives us a chance.
|
|
|
|
Post by professorplump on Apr 29, 2018 6:54:48 GMT
Personally, I'm hoping West Ham get dragged back into it..... Man City (H) Leicester (A) Man Utd (H) Everton (H) The weakest one there being Everton home!!! The problem here is that Leicester are in freefall at the moment, there are rumours that the players have fallen out with Puel and I can't see them beating a committed West Ham. |
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Apr 29, 2018 7:55:37 GMT
With the obvious exception of Southampton, yesterday's results were fairly kind to us. We now go down in around 90% of simulations of the remaining matches. In the 10 out of every 100 where we stay up the most common combination of relegated teams is WBA, Southampton and Huddersfield which happens in 41 out of every 100 survival seasons, followed by WBA, Swansea and Huddersfield (30 per 100). The rest are listed below.  |
|
|
|
Post by Paul Spencer on Apr 29, 2018 7:59:29 GMT
With the obvious exception of Southampton, yesterday's results were fairly kind to us. We now go down in around 90% of simulations of the remaining matches. In the 10 out of every 100 where we stay up the most common combination of relegated teams is WBA, Southampton and Huddersfield which happens in 41 out of every 100 survival seasons, followed by WBA, Swansea and Huddersfield (30 per 100). The rest are listed below. View AttachmentSo do we want Swansea to beat Southampton then? Is a draw actually the worst possible outcome of that fixture for us? |
|
|
|
Post by Pugsley on Apr 29, 2018 8:03:44 GMT
I love how people are assuming we will win 2 games in a row.
Pie in the sky thinking.
|
|
|
|
Post by cheekymatt71 on Apr 29, 2018 8:04:24 GMT
Lambert is aiming for 2 more draws to hit the 32 point mark.
I dont think Maths is his strong point
|
|
|
|
Post by Pugsley on Apr 29, 2018 8:13:25 GMT
Lambert is aiming for 2 more draws to hit the 32 point mark. I dont think Maths is his strong point As long as they are 0-0 then people will love it. Doing a great job.... |
|
|
|
Post by werrington on Apr 29, 2018 8:37:20 GMT
Ultimately that Swansea v Southampton match will kill us
|
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Apr 29, 2018 8:41:00 GMT
[/quote]
So do we want Swansea to beat Southampton then?
Is a draw actually the worst possible outcome of that fixture for us?[/quote]
As of this morning, there's more routes to our survival if Southampton beat Swansea (because Soton's remaining fixtures are more difficult than Swansea's). A Swans win or a draw lead to around an equal number of survival routes within our current 10% chance of staying up.
But by the time that game takes places the remaining match permutations will have been greatly reduced. We might be already gone or we might be cheering for Swansea.
|
|
|
|
Post by robwahlmann on Apr 29, 2018 17:54:52 GMT
Ultimately that Swansea v Southampton match will kill us It all depends on the results next weekend! |
|
|
|
Post by redrob on Apr 29, 2018 17:56:20 GMT
all we can do is win both our remaining two games and what will be will be, it's pretty much out of our hands
|
|
|
|
Post by cozmick on Apr 29, 2018 17:59:22 GMT
All this prediction bollocks is only prolonging the agony.
When was the last time we actually had back to back wins?
Time to accept the inevitable gents, it's easier this way.
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2018 18:04:13 GMT
We have to win 2 games to have a chance so we finish on 36 points.
Saints last 3 games are Everton (A), Swansea (A) and Man City (H).
We have to hope they only get 3 points, which is very possible.
If Saints lose to Everton i don't mind if they beat Swansea.
Huddersfield are the big one, they can't get a result out of nowhere.
Everton are excellent at home, so it's very possible that Saints will finish on between 32-35 points.
Either way, one of Swansea or Saints has a very good chance of being down there. Huddersfield is the big one.
|
|
|
|
Post by iglugluk on Apr 29, 2018 18:45:14 GMT
All this prediction bollocks is only prolonging the agony. When was the last time we actually had back to back wins? Time to accept the inevitable gents, it's easier this way. You are quite right.......unfortunately. I can't help but keep a tiny ember of hope burning, although, I know ultimately it will almost inevitably lead to a higher level of disappointment. |
|
|
|
Post by robwahlmann on Apr 29, 2018 18:56:51 GMT
All this prediction bollocks is only prolonging the agony. When was the last time we actually had back to back wins? Time to accept the inevitable gents, it's easier this way. You are quite right.......unfortunately. I can't help but keep a tiny ember of hope burning, although, I know ultimately it will almost inevitably lead to a higher level of disappointment. ...but as long as there is hope it's possible!  |
|
