wapiti
Youth Player
Posts: 394
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Post by wapiti on Feb 8, 2018 18:07:27 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team.
The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in.
Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2018 18:09:44 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. This is fundamentally flawed, why would you assume that we would lose to Everton and Burnley at home when history tells you that mid-table teams with nothing to play for are the ideal opponents in a relegation battle? |
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Post by smallthorner on Feb 8, 2018 18:42:19 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. As mentioned on another thread.. In my humble opinion we have got to pull at least one "rabbit out of the hat" I.e. winning at Arsenal or Leicester away or Man Titty home. Don't know if Super Pauly McLambert will adopt the mind-set of previous managers and think that arsenal and man city are worth "Give aways" but it will certainly be interesting how he approaches. |
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Post by jezzascfc on Feb 8, 2018 18:52:14 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. This is fundamentally flawed, why would you assume that we would lose to Everton and Burnley at home when history tells you that mid-table teams with nothing to play for are the ideal opponents in a relegation battle? Agreed, and based on many of us running through the fixture calculator to the end of the season, survival this year could be as low as 34/35 points given the number of teams who are still in the 20s. I can see us getting 3 wins and a draw out of BHA, Everton, Burnley and Palace (10 pts) and maybe getting a couple of draws out of Leicester, Southampton and West Ham (2pts). On 36, I think we could well then need a win at Swansea to be safe, but a draw may be enough depending on other fixtures. |
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Post by theplantpotter on Feb 8, 2018 19:13:04 GMT
We'll defo know by 18.00 hrs 13th May
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Post by smallthorner on Feb 8, 2018 19:22:01 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. This is fundamentally flawed, why would you assume that we would lose to Everton and Burnley at home when history tells you that mid-table teams with nothing to play for are the ideal opponents in a relegation battle? Is that history tabulated prestwich? Not being funny like. Is it an assumption or fact. My own memories and thinking seems to be when these pressure situations arise ... no fooker has got a clue what's going to happen 😁 |
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Feb 8, 2018 19:30:27 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. As mentioned on another thread.. In my humble opinion we have got to pull at least one "rabbit out of the hat" I.e. winning at Arsenal or Leicester away or Man Titty home. Don't know if Super Pauly McLambert will adopt the mind-set of previous managers and think that arsenal and man city are worth "Give aways" but it will certainly be interesting how he approaches. I think Hughes got too prescriptive about give away and winnable games - I think the players took it on board and went into games believing they couldn't win. I can't see Lambert thinking that way - we need points from every game. If he can transmit that to the players we may throw in a few surprise results - which would take the pressure off the "must win" games. In a strange way we may have found ourselves in the relegation zone at the right time. We know we are in a battle to survive and there aren't too many games to see out the new manager bounce. it's the teams who have sort of looked ok but in a slow long decline that often get sucked on towards the end. Huddersfield look like they are slowly sinking and the new manager bounce may be starting to wear off for palace and west ham - who also have some serious injury problems. All is not lost. |
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Post by JurgenVandeurzen on Feb 8, 2018 19:32:28 GMT
You can't assume anything at this stage, look at Swansea beating Chelsea and Liverpool.
As my old grandad used to say - assuming makes an ass out of u and me.
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Post by thegift on Feb 8, 2018 19:36:56 GMT
You can't assume anything at this stage, look at Swansea beating Chelsea and Liverpool. As my old grandad used to say - assuming makes an ass out of u and me. Why make score predictions then? |
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Post by JurgenVandeurzen on Feb 8, 2018 19:40:10 GMT
You can't assume anything at this stage, look at Swansea beating Chelsea and Liverpool. As my old grandad used to say - assuming makes an ass out of u and me. Why make score predictions then? Making a score prediction and saying "such and such will beat them, is a completely different thing" |
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Feb 8, 2018 19:47:33 GMT
If we lose against Brighton then you can forget about maths.
Can't see us getting anything from the next 3 games (Leicester/Southampton A Man City H)
Then it's Everton, Arsenal & Spurs.
Our Party will be over by then.
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Post by roylandstoke on Feb 8, 2018 19:59:39 GMT
We will need to beat Burnley to have any chance; logic tells me we will probably be too far gone by then regardless.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2018 20:32:35 GMT
This is fundamentally flawed, why would you assume that we would lose to Everton and Burnley at home when history tells you that mid-table teams with nothing to play for are the ideal opponents in a relegation battle? Is that history tabulated prestwich? Not being funny like. Is it an assumption or fact. My own memories and thinking seems to be when these pressure situations arise ... no fooker has got a clue what's going to happen 😁 I haven’t put it in a spreadsheet no. However I could name you many teams who have reached the magic 40 points mark and subsequently downed tools for the season..... |
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Post by SamB_SCFC on Feb 8, 2018 20:37:49 GMT
Got to beat Brighton. Lose or draw and I don't think we'll have enough in my opinion. The definition of a must win game for me.
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Post by iglugluk on Feb 8, 2018 20:44:18 GMT
Got to beat Brighton. Lose or draw and I don't think we'll have enough in my opinion. The definition of a must win game for me. Seems that way......... drawing with Watford in our last home game was a BIG problem unfortunately. |
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Post by smallthorner on Feb 8, 2018 20:54:56 GMT
Is that history tabulated prestwich? Not being funny like. Is it an assumption or fact. My own memories and thinking seems to be when these pressure situations arise ... no fooker has got a clue what's going to happen 😁 I haven’t put it in a spreadsheet no. However I could name you many teams who have reached the magic 40 points mark and subsequently downed tools for the season..... Let's hope you are correct. Although I cannot see any teams managed by Dyche and Big Sam throwing in the towel. It's going to be a roller coaster !! |
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Post by bojanwonder on Feb 8, 2018 20:58:54 GMT
Is that history tabulated prestwich? Not being funny like. Is it an assumption or fact. My own memories and thinking seems to be when these pressure situations arise ... no fooker has got a clue what's going to happen 😁 I haven’t put it in a spreadsheet no. However I could name you many teams who have reached the magic 40 points mark and subsequently downed tools for the season..... Stoke being one of those teams on a few occasions! |
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Post by smallthorner on Feb 8, 2018 21:01:40 GMT
I haven’t put it in a spreadsheet no. However I could name you many teams who have reached the magic 40 points mark and subsequently downed tools for the season..... Stoke being one of those teams on a few occasions! And to think we used to give TP loads of abuse for that. What we wouldn't give to be in that position now eh? |
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Post by potterglen on Feb 8, 2018 21:18:55 GMT
You can't assume anything at this stage, look at Swansea beating Chelsea and Liverpool. As my old grandad used to say - assuming makes an ass out of u and me. Highlights the throwing of the Chelsea game as the defeatist Hughes twattery that it was. |
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Post by shangamuzo on Feb 8, 2018 21:21:44 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. This is fundamentally flawed, why would you assume that we would lose to Everton and Burnley at home when history tells you that mid-table teams with nothing to play for are the ideal opponents in a relegation battle? Others down there will also be playing some of those mid-table nothing much on it for them sides at home. |
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Post by NG4POTTERS on Feb 8, 2018 21:56:36 GMT
Blimey. Relegation maths. If the prospect wasn't worrying enough we now have maths to cement our impending doom.
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Post by smallthorner on Feb 8, 2018 22:32:13 GMT
Blimey. Relegation maths. If the prospect wasn't worrying enough we now have maths to cement our impending doom. 😁 |
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wapiti
Youth Player
Posts: 394
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Post by wapiti on Feb 8, 2018 22:32:35 GMT
Blimey. Relegation maths. If the prospect wasn't worrying enough we now have maths to cement our impending doom. It was just a quantification of my fears and applied pseudo-science. |
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Post by smallthorner on Feb 8, 2018 22:34:41 GMT
Blimey. Relegation maths. If the prospect wasn't worrying enough we now have maths to cement our impending doom. It was just a quantification of my fears and applied pseudo-science. But we all know. Most of the people on here know the square root of f*ck all. |
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Post by Squeekster on Feb 8, 2018 22:50:36 GMT
Is that history tabulated prestwich? Not being funny like. Is it an assumption or fact. My own memories and thinking seems to be when these pressure situations arise ... no fooker has got a clue what's going to happen 😁 I haven’t put it in a spreadsheet no. However I could name you many teams who have reached the magic 40 points mark and subsequently downed tools for the season..... Us for one under Pulis. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2018 22:55:02 GMT
I haven’t put it in a spreadsheet no. However I could name you many teams who have reached the magic 40 points mark and subsequently downed tools for the season..... Us for one under Pulis. Of course..... |
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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 8, 2018 22:56:50 GMT
I view it a different way - I think 36pts will be enough:
We have to beat Brighton, I think we all know we are fecked if we lose or draw that game
If we beat Brighton it will put us on 27pts with 11 games remaining, 4 of those 11 are top 6 teams, so effectively 7 games in which to get the 9pts required for the 36pt mark. That does mean that in those 7 games we will have to average more than a point a game, which we are not doing at the moment.
We are whether we like it or not relying on 3 teams to have a crap end to the season to give us a chance, if we need more than 36pts to survive then we are more than likely royally fecked.
Our new manager though seems to be working hard and preparing his troops for the fight, which will hopefully give us every opportunity to avoid the drop and as the saying goes - Luck is What Happens When Preparation Meets Opportunity" and we are going to need lots of that stuff in the coming weeks
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Post by Squeekster on Feb 8, 2018 23:03:12 GMT
This is assuming all the other teams around win handsomely and leave us for dead, which of course won't happen although I do think we are serious candidates for the drop but then so are 6 or seven maybe more.
We do need a win on Saturday and maybe a bit of luck from somewhere which we haven't of late.
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Post by Royal Donut on Feb 8, 2018 23:27:15 GMT
37 will keep you up.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 0:02:23 GMT
My realistic maths says we are only getting 33 points. Wish I could see more but this sudden improvement in our form has not raised it's head under Lambert as yet.
True that he has improved us and our attitude but we are still not good enough sorry but there it is , or isn't as the case may be.
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