|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 0:11:00 GMT
Doesn't really matter TBH. More important things to worry about. NASA have said that there will be a cataclysmic impact from a yet unknown comet sometime in the next Billion Years. Now, that is a bit unspecific for me...It could be in 50,000,000 years, or 1,000,000 years, 1000 years , or indedd in May.
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Feb 9, 2018 9:32:43 GMT
Part of my day job is to model football matches from play by play data and use those models to make match & season long predictions.
You can only make projections based on the likelihood, rather than the certainty of events happening. On Saturday, it's generally accepted that Stoke have around a 44% chance of beating Brighton. (My model and the bookmaker's odds concur).
So the most likely single outcome is a Stoke victory, but it is slightly more likely (56%) that Stoke will win either one or zero points. The same probabilistic assessment can be made for every other Premier League game being played this weekend and every game due to be played until the end of the season.
You can simulate the remainder of the season using these derived match probabilities and a random number generator to produce actual match outcomes. Points "won" in these virtual matches can then be bolted onto the current actual points won/goals scored etc to simulate a final table.
The powerful aspect of this approach is that the process can be repeated thousands of times to create a range of possible scenarios, along with how likely each scenario is to occur.
I've just run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and Stoke go down in 4,400 of these simulations. So the chance of us getting relegated prior to the Brighton match has around the same likelihood of us winning the Brighton match.
In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive.
Such simulation can help to answer other questions.
The most likely final points total won by the 18th placed side is currently 35 points (23%), centered around a low of 31 and a high of 39. That's not quite our survival target though, because our goal difference is poor and in many of those scenarios we already finish in the bottom three, so aiming to beat the survival cutoff point for that single simulation merely improves our final position, but still leaves us in 18th spot.
It some simulations, we gain a maximum of 39 points.....but are still relegated and conversely we very occasionally stay up with just 33 points. Our most common survival total is 38 points and our most common relegation points total in these simulations is 34.
There are nine teams currently with double digit likelihoods of being relegated. WBA, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, WHU, Brighton and ourselves. We play five such sides in the run in, Swansea play six and WHU just three.
Such games are viewed as "6 pointers". It is preferable, given the choice of one win from two games to defeat Brighton and lose to say Man City, rather than vice versa.
Unsurprisingly, if we took zero points from these five relegation six pointers, we are relegated in 97% of such scenarios. If we improve to take five points from these five games, out survival rate is still only 40% and it is only when we take six or more points from a possible 15 that we become more likely than not to stay in the Premier League.
We survive 80% of the time we take nine points from our rivals and 11 or more points from these games all but ensures survival.
I'll try to up date these projections as the probabilities collapse to actual results.
|
|
|
Post by Veritas on Feb 9, 2018 11:02:14 GMT
Doesn't really matter TBH. More important things to worry about. NASA have said that there will be a cataclysmic impact from a yet unknown comet sometime in the next Billion Years. Now, that is a bit unspecific for me...It could be in 50,000,000 years, or 1,000,000 years, 1000 years , or indedd in May. I have seen that prediction I think they came to a similar conclusion for Saido's next goal
|
|
|
Post by AstroTom on Feb 9, 2018 11:08:55 GMT
I've done predictors for the end of the season time and time again this week.
Every single time I've got us getting 34 points. Every single time it keeps us up.
We'll go on a 7 game run without a win, lose to Swansea on the last day of the season and STILL stay up. Going on what you say about us finishing on 37 points and it not being enough? I reckon this season, 37 points could put us at least 12th.
We need 10 points. Seems easy enough.
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 9, 2018 11:17:00 GMT
I've done predictors for the end of the season time and time again this week. Every single time I've got us getting 34 points. Every single time it keeps us up. We'll go on a 7 game run without a win, lose to Swansea on the last day of the season and STILL stay up. Going on what you say about us finishing on 37 points and it not being enough? I reckon this season, 37 points could put us at least 12th. We need 10 points. Seems easy enough. 10 Points...OK...Forget 4-4-2, 0r 4-3-3...Just play 10...
|
|
|
Post by harrysburrow on Feb 9, 2018 11:28:18 GMT
The gross lack of fitness cancels out the maths - just cross your fingers ladies.
|
|
|
Post by mrcoke on Feb 9, 2018 11:34:31 GMT
Part of my day job is to model football matches from play by play data and use those models to make match & season long predictions. You can only make projections based on the likelihood, rather than the certainty of events happening. On Saturday, it's generally accepted that Stoke have around a 44% chance of beating Brighton. (My model and the bookmaker's odds concur). So the most likely single outcome is a Stoke victory, but it is slightly more likely (56%) that Stoke will win either one or zero points. The same probabilistic assessment can be made for every other Premier League game being played this weekend and every game due to be played until the end of the season. You can simulate the remainder of the season using these derived match probabilities and a random number generator to produce actual match outcomes. Points "won" in these virtual matches can then be bolted onto the current actual points won/goals scored etc to simulate a final table. The powerful aspect of this approach is that the process can be repeated thousands of times to create a range of possible scenarios, along with how likely each scenario is to occur. I've just run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and Stoke go down in 4,400 of these simulations. So the chance of us getting relegated prior to the Brighton match has around the same likelihood of us winning the Brighton match. In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive. Such simulation can help to answer other questions. The most likely final points total won by the 18th placed side is currently 35 points (23%), centered around a low of 31 and a high of 39. That's not quite our survival target though, because our goal difference is poor and in many of those scenarios we already finish in the bottom three, so aiming to beat the survival cutoff point for that single simulation merely improves our final position, but still leaves us in 18th spot. It some simulations, we gain a maximum of 39 points.....but are still relegated and conversely we very occasionally stay up with just 33 points. Our most common survival total is 38 points and our most common relegation points total in these simulations is 34. There are nine teams currently with double digit likelihoods of being relegated. WBA, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, WHU, Brighton and ourselves. We play five such sides in the run in, Swansea play six and WHU just three. Such games are viewed as "6 pointers". It is preferable, given the choice of one win from two games to defeat Brighton and lose to say Man City, rather than vice versa. Unsurprisingly, if we took zero points from these five relegation six pointers, we are relegated in 97% of such scenarios. If we improve to take five points from these five games, out survival rate is still only 40% and it is only when we take six or more points from a possible 15 that we become more likely than not to stay in the Premier League. We survive 80% of the time we take nine points from our rivals and 11 or more points from these games all but ensures survival. I'll try to up date these projections as the probabilities collapse to actual results. An interesting article tachy, may I ask a couple of questions: 1. You say there is a 44% chance of beating Brighton, what is the confidence interval on that projection? 2. Are you able to go back a few weeks and determine the chance of a) Swansea beating Liverpool, b) Swansea beating Arsenal, and c) Swansea beating Liverpool and Arsenal?
|
|
|
Post by ColonelMustard on Feb 9, 2018 11:52:08 GMT
Part of my day job is to model football matches from play by play data and use those models to make match & season long predictions. You can only make projections based on the likelihood, rather than the certainty of events happening. On Saturday, it's generally accepted that Stoke have around a 44% chance of beating Brighton. (My model and the bookmaker's odds concur). So the most likely single outcome is a Stoke victory, but it is slightly more likely (56%) that Stoke will win either one or zero points. The same probabilistic assessment can be made for every other Premier League game being played this weekend and every game due to be played until the end of the season. You can simulate the remainder of the season using these derived match probabilities and a random number generator to produce actual match outcomes. Points "won" in these virtual matches can then be bolted onto the current actual points won/goals scored etc to simulate a final table. The powerful aspect of this approach is that the process can be repeated thousands of times to create a range of possible scenarios, along with how likely each scenario is to occur. I've just run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and Stoke go down in 4,400 of these simulations. So the chance of us getting relegated prior to the Brighton match has around the same likelihood of us winning the Brighton match. In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive. Such simulation can help to answer other questions. The most likely final points total won by the 18th placed side is currently 35 points (23%), centered around a low of 31 and a high of 39. That's not quite our survival target though, because our goal difference is poor and in many of those scenarios we already finish in the bottom three, so aiming to beat the survival cutoff point for that single simulation merely improves our final position, but still leaves us in 18th spot. It some simulations, we gain a maximum of 39 points.....but are still relegated and conversely we very occasionally stay up with just 33 points. Our most common survival total is 38 points and our most common relegation points total in these simulations is 34. There are nine teams currently with double digit likelihoods of being relegated. WBA, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, WHU, Brighton and ourselves. We play five such sides in the run in, Swansea play six and WHU just three. Such games are viewed as "6 pointers". It is preferable, given the choice of one win from two games to defeat Brighton and lose to say Man City, rather than vice versa. Unsurprisingly, if we took zero points from these five relegation six pointers, we are relegated in 97% of such scenarios. If we improve to take five points from these five games, out survival rate is still only 40% and it is only when we take six or more points from a possible 15 that we become more likely than not to stay in the Premier League. We survive 80% of the time we take nine points from our rivals and 11 or more points from these games all but ensures survival. I'll try to up date these projections as the probabilities collapse to actual results. Cheers for this. Just 6 points from 5 winnable games to see us likely stay up.
|
|
|
Post by Staffsoatcake on Feb 9, 2018 12:59:51 GMT
Sod the maths, you can't COUNT on anything in nogger.π€
|
|
|
Post by jezzascfc on Feb 9, 2018 14:06:50 GMT
Part of my day job is to model football matches from play by play data and use those models to make match & season long predictions. You can only make projections based on the likelihood, rather than the certainty of events happening. On Saturday, it's generally accepted that Stoke have around a 44% chance of beating Brighton. (My model and the bookmaker's odds concur). So the most likely single outcome is a Stoke victory, but it is slightly more likely (56%) that Stoke will win either one or zero points. The same probabilistic assessment can be made for every other Premier League game being played this weekend and every game due to be played until the end of the season. You can simulate the remainder of the season using these derived match probabilities and a random number generator to produce actual match outcomes. Points "won" in these virtual matches can then be bolted onto the current actual points won/goals scored etc to simulate a final table. The powerful aspect of this approach is that the process can be repeated thousands of times to create a range of possible scenarios, along with how likely each scenario is to occur. I've just run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and Stoke go down in 4,400 of these simulations. So the chance of us getting relegated prior to the Brighton match has around the same likelihood of us winning the Brighton match. In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive. Such simulation can help to answer other questions. The most likely final points total won by the 18th placed side is currently 35 points (23%), centered around a low of 31 and a high of 39. That's not quite our survival target though, because our goal difference is poor and in many of those scenarios we already finish in the bottom three, so aiming to beat the survival cutoff point for that single simulation merely improves our final position, but still leaves us in 18th spot. It some simulations, we gain a maximum of 39 points.....but are still relegated and conversely we very occasionally stay up with just 33 points. Our most common survival total is 38 points and our most common relegation points total in these simulations is 34. There are nine teams currently with double digit likelihoods of being relegated. WBA, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, WHU, Brighton and ourselves. We play five such sides in the run in, Swansea play six and WHU just three. Such games are viewed as "6 pointers". It is preferable, given the choice of one win from two games to defeat Brighton and lose to say Man City, rather than vice versa. Unsurprisingly, if we took zero points from these five relegation six pointers, we are relegated in 97% of such scenarios. If we improve to take five points from these five games, out survival rate is still only 40% and it is only when we take six or more points from a possible 15 that we become more likely than not to stay in the Premier League. We survive 80% of the time we take nine points from our rivals and 11 or more points from these games all but ensures survival. I'll try to up date these projections as the probabilities collapse to actual results. Very interesting stuff and backs up what most of our runs through the predictor, in a very unscientific way, found - that we need to get above 34 points, but not necessarily as much as 40 points, to survive, given how tight the bottom half of the table is, and that it would be better if we got more of our points against the relegation rivals we play (not that the games v Man City, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool promise a major haul of points in any event, although we need to do our best to sneak one of two results - look at what Swansea did v Arsenal and Liverpool!!). 4 wins and a draw would take us to 37 points and a better than even chance of staying up, especially if they are against Brighton, Southampton, West Ham, Crystal Palace and Swansea. We still have Everton and Burnley at home as well, where I feel we can take points (maybe 4 out of 6?). What this does show is only a win will do this weekend, given the opposition.
|
|
|
Post by potterblade on Feb 9, 2018 14:27:37 GMT
The relegation zone averages a point a game or less. So even if we lose the next 6 games we won't be too far adrift to turn it around. It'll go down to the wire, or at least the last 6 games.
|
|
scfc25
Academy Starlet
Posts: 193
|
Post by scfc25 on Feb 9, 2018 14:32:29 GMT
I think realistically we are going to need to pick up some βshockβ points somewhere like Swansea have recently
|
|
|
Post by realstokebloke on Feb 9, 2018 14:39:21 GMT
I think realistically we are going to need to pick up some βshockβ points somewhere like Swansea have recently This.
Plus not blowing it against one of our struggling rivals.
The value of the moral boost instilled by just such a 'bonus' win cannot be underestimated.
Worryingly, it must be what Swansea are feeling right now.
|
|
|
Post by Gods on Feb 9, 2018 14:46:58 GMT
Part of my day job is to model football matches from play by play data and use those models to make match & season long predictions. You can only make projections based on the likelihood, rather than the certainty of events happening. On Saturday, it's generally accepted that Stoke have around a 44% chance of beating Brighton. (My model and the bookmaker's odds concur). So the most likely single outcome is a Stoke victory, but it is slightly more likely (56%) that Stoke will win either one or zero points. The same probabilistic assessment can be made for every other Premier League game being played this weekend and every game due to be played until the end of the season. You can simulate the remainder of the season using these derived match probabilities and a random number generator to produce actual match outcomes. Points "won" in these virtual matches can then be bolted onto the current actual points won/goals scored etc to simulate a final table. The powerful aspect of this approach is that the process can be repeated thousands of times to create a range of possible scenarios, along with how likely each scenario is to occur. I've just run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and Stoke go down in 4,400 of these simulations. So the chance of us getting relegated prior to the Brighton match has around the same likelihood of us winning the Brighton match. In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive. Such simulation can help to answer other questions. The most likely final points total won by the 18th placed side is currently 35 points (23%), centered around a low of 31 and a high of 39. That's not quite our survival target though, because our goal difference is poor and in many of those scenarios we already finish in the bottom three, so aiming to beat the survival cutoff point for that single simulation merely improves our final position, but still leaves us in 18th spot. It some simulations, we gain a maximum of 39 points.....but are still relegated and conversely we very occasionally stay up with just 33 points. Our most common survival total is 38 points and our most common relegation points total in these simulations is 34. There are nine teams currently with double digit likelihoods of being relegated. WBA, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, WHU, Brighton and ourselves. We play five such sides in the run in, Swansea play six and WHU just three. Such games are viewed as "6 pointers". It is preferable, given the choice of one win from two games to defeat Brighton and lose to say Man City, rather than vice versa. Unsurprisingly, if we took zero points from these five relegation six pointers, we are relegated in 97% of such scenarios. If we improve to take five points from these five games, out survival rate is still only 40% and it is only when we take six or more points from a possible 15 that we become more likely than not to stay in the Premier League. We survive 80% of the time we take nine points from our rivals and 11 or more points from these games all but ensures survival. I'll try to up date these projections as the probabilities collapse to actual results. An excellent post. You sum up the depth of our plight perfectly in this single chilling sentence: >>In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive.
|
|
|
Post by kustokie on Feb 9, 2018 16:01:21 GMT
My realistic maths says we are only getting 33 points. Wish I could see more but this sudden improvement in our form has not raised it's head under Lambert as yet. True that he has improved us and our attitude but we are still not good enough sorry but there it is , or isn't as the case may be. 4 pts from 3 teams in the relegation battle is not good enough.
|
|
wapiti
Youth Player
Posts: 400
|
Post by wapiti on Feb 9, 2018 17:27:14 GMT
I just threw away me slide rule......from now on, I only listen to tachyon.
|
|
|
Post by smallthorner on Feb 9, 2018 18:07:41 GMT
I think realistically we are going to need to pick up some βshockβ points somewhere like Swansea have recently This.
Plus not blowing it against one of our struggling rivals.
The value of the moral boost instilled by just such a 'bonus' win cannot be underestimated.
Worryingly, it must be what Swansea are feeling right now.Β Exactly. Or "rabbit out of hat" as I described on another thread few days ago. I cannot see us surviving unless we beat at least one out of Leicester or Arsenal away or Man City home. That's assuming we win tomorrow of course. Ok if we lose tomorrow it isn't nailed on certainty but the mental scar will run deep. Goooaaarrrnn Super Pauly McLambert.
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Feb 9, 2018 18:10:22 GMT
[/quote]An interesting article tachy, may I ask a couple of questions: 1. You say there is a 44% chance of beating Brighton, what is the confidence interval on that projection? 2. Are you able to go back a few weeks and determine the chance of a) Swansea beating Liverpool, b) Swansea beating Arsenal, and c) Swansea beating Liverpool and Arsenal?[/quote] Swans beating Liverpool had an implied probability of 0.08 or 8% or 11/1. For Arsenal it was ~14% or 6/1. Combined probability of them winning both was 0.012 or roughly 83/1. Over the last 11 completed seasons, they've been about 980 games where one team has had less than a 14% chance of winning the game. The implied probabilities suggest that 94 should have been successful and 92 were. So the model is well calibrated. An 83/1 chance sounds unlikely, but if you have enough opportunities for something as seemingly unlikely as this to happen, sooner or later it will. Unluckily for us Swansea had a boost of positive variance at an inopportune moment. They probably deserved the Arsenal win (they created chances worth 2.2 expected goals and allowed 1.1 xG), but ran their luck vs Liverpool (only created 0.5 xG and allowed 2.7 xG). Attachment DeletedHere's the xG shot maps for Swansea's two shocks and our last three games. The size of the circles denotes the quality of the chance. Bigger circles are more likely to be scored. We aren't pulling up any trees in the attacking half. T
|
|
|
Post by terryconroysmagic on Feb 9, 2018 20:21:15 GMT
Part of my day job is to model football matches from play by play data and use those models to make match & season long predictions. You can only make projections based on the likelihood, rather than the certainty of events happening. On Saturday, it's generally accepted that Stoke have around a 44% chance of beating Brighton. (My model and the bookmaker's odds concur). So the most likely single outcome is a Stoke victory, but it is slightly more likely (56%) that Stoke will win either one or zero points. The same probabilistic assessment can be made for every other Premier League game being played this weekend and every game due to be played until the end of the season. You can simulate the remainder of the season using these derived match probabilities and a random number generator to produce actual match outcomes. Points "won" in these virtual matches can then be bolted onto the current actual points won/goals scored etc to simulate a final table. The powerful aspect of this approach is that the process can be repeated thousands of times to create a range of possible scenarios, along with how likely each scenario is to occur. I've just run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and Stoke go down in 4,400 of these simulations. So the chance of us getting relegated prior to the Brighton match has around the same likelihood of us winning the Brighton match. In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive. Such simulation can help to answer other questions. The most likely final points total won by the 18th placed side is currently 35 points (23%), centered around a low of 31 and a high of 39. That's not quite our survival target though, because our goal difference is poor and in many of those scenarios we already finish in the bottom three, so aiming to beat the survival cutoff point for that single simulation merely improves our final position, but still leaves us in 18th spot. It some simulations, we gain a maximum of 39 points.....but are still relegated and conversely we very occasionally stay up with just 33 points. Our most common survival total is 38 points and our most common relegation points total in these simulations is 34. There are nine teams currently with double digit likelihoods of being relegated. WBA, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, WHU, Brighton and ourselves. We play five such sides in the run in, Swansea play six and WHU just three. Such games are viewed as "6 pointers". It is preferable, given the choice of one win from two games to defeat Brighton and lose to say Man City, rather than vice versa. Unsurprisingly, if we took zero points from these five relegation six pointers, we are relegated in 97% of such scenarios. If we improve to take five points from these five games, out survival rate is still only 40% and it is only when we take six or more points from a possible 15 that we become more likely than not to stay in the Premier League. We survive 80% of the time we take nine points from our rivals and 11 or more points from these games all but ensures survival. I'll try to up date these projections as the probabilities collapse to actual results. I'm using Glasgow's emotional prediction model, we're fucked
|
|
|
Post by harrysburrow on Feb 9, 2018 21:07:23 GMT
Trying really hard, but I get 35 points - which won't be enough. We've got 12 games left, which include Man City, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool. So far this season, we've literally been dicked in every game against the top clubs, so barring some exceptional results we're looking to get 14 points from 8 games? (Hoping 38 pts is safety). Traditionally, we get thumped at Leicester and get very little change out of Palace - even at home? Who on here would fancy having to go to Swansea last day to get anything - even a point?
We seem to do okay at Southampton - and on a good day we can beat Everton and Burnley at home. I would also rather play WHU away on the run in? Anything other than a win tomorrow and we're down I'm afraid.
|
|
|
Post by exiledpotter on Feb 9, 2018 21:10:29 GMT
Hopefully Shaqiri or someone will have their shooting boots on and shift the odds in our favour. Brighton are good at scoring own goals ... what are the odds on them springing in another one for us?
|
|
|
Post by harrysburrow on Feb 9, 2018 21:12:16 GMT
Hopefully Shaqiri or someone will have their shooting boots on and shift the odds in our favour. Brighton are good at scoring own goals ... what are the odds on them springing in another one for us? Fingers crossed mate. You don't tend to get own goals when you're in the shit though?
|
|
|
Post by exiledpotter on Feb 10, 2018 13:44:13 GMT
Hopefully Shaqiri or someone will have their shooting boots on and shift the odds in our favour. Brighton are good at scoring own goals ... what are the odds on them springing in another one for us? Fingers crossed mate. You don't tend to get own goals when you're in the shit though? Very true .... if the football gods are against you, you hit your own player and the ball goes wide, or technology says 1 cm of the ball hasn't crossed the line. We could do with some luck though.
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Feb 11, 2018 9:12:39 GMT
Updated survival chances after that penalty. Go down, 54 times out of 100 simulations. Stay up 46 times out of 100. Most likely final points total 35 (11 times out of 100). Probably shouldn't do this but *if* Charlie smashes the penalty home *and* we hold on for three points, we'd stay up 67 times out of 100. I'll do a more detailed one after all the week's games have been played.
|
|
|
Post by dutchstokie on Feb 11, 2018 9:31:37 GMT
Whereβs Oulare when we need him most?
|
|
|
Post by FullerMagic on Feb 11, 2018 18:05:49 GMT
Updated survival chances after that penalty. Go down, 54 times out of 100 simulations. Stay up 46 times out of 100. Most likely final points total 35 (11 times out of 100). Probably shouldn't do this but *if* Charlie smashes the penalty home *and* we hold on for three points, we'd stay up 67 times out of 100. View AttachmentI'll do a more detailed one after all the week's games have been played. Very interesting - and all a bit depressing! And I bet the picture's even worse after today...
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 18:07:44 GMT
Dead easy maths.
SCFC + Games = -Premier League
|
|
|
Post by FullerMagic on Feb 12, 2018 18:52:28 GMT
|
|
|
Post by ethers26 on Feb 13, 2018 20:26:30 GMT
Just seen Adam's pen again.
HOW does he not tap in the rebound?!π’π’π’
Would've given us a slim chance of survival.
|
|
|
Post by 1982stokie on Feb 13, 2018 20:48:06 GMT
Just seen Adam's pen again. HOW does he not tap in the rebound?!π’π’π’ Would've given us a slim chance of survival. Not a clue, it looks worse every time I see it.
|
|