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Post by flea79 on Mar 6, 2018 12:37:56 GMT
Well watching the Palace v Man Utd game the commentator mentioned that Man Utd were playing 12 men as the Palace fans were creating such a hostile atmosphere, We moan about their drumming, some of their chants but we have to get behind the players selected by PL agree with the sentiment but the moment you see Johnson on the bench or heading onto the pitch I want to end it all, I think I have been clear that I cant stand Lambert but I will get behind the players, but god is it hard work
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Post by FullerMagic on Mar 11, 2018 15:07:01 GMT
Based on:
1 - Home v Bottom 14 2 - Away v Bottom 14 3 - Home v Top 6 4 - Away v Top 6
(and assuming we get nothing tomorrow)
Last 8 games:
Stoke 27 1 4 3 2 1 4 1 2 18 C.Pal 27 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 14 Soton 28 2 4 3 2 1 2 3 2 19 WestH 30 1 4 1 4 3 2 1 3 19 Hudds 31 1 2 2 1 4 1 4 3 17 Swans 31 4 2 1 4 3 2 1 1 18
Palace's run-in looks very kind, including the Baggies at home on the final day. So you'd think we'd have to be clear of them after 37 games to be in with a realistic sniff.
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Post by djduncanjames on Mar 11, 2018 15:09:42 GMT
I cant understand this, how are you meant to read this its just a bunch of numbers lol *I'm a bit thick
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Post by Gods on Mar 11, 2018 15:12:23 GMT
Based on: 1 - Home v Bottom 14 2 - Away v Bottom 14 3 - Home v Top 6 4 - Away v Top 6 (and assuming we get nothing tomorrow) Last 8 games: Stoke 27 1 4 3 2 1 4 1 2 18C.Pal 27 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 14Soton 28 2 4 3 2 1 2 3 2 19WestH 30 1 4 1 4 3 2 1 3 19Hudds 31 1 2 2 1 4 1 4 3 17Swans 31 4 2 1 4 3 2 1 1 18Palace's run-in looks very kind, including the Baggies at home on the final day. So you'd think we'd have to be clear of them after 37 games to be in with a realistic sniff. Yes, I noticed Palace's last 6 games couldn't be easier if they chose them themselves. With Zaha back too I have factored them out of my calculations. Any chance Bournemouth could be dragged back in if they lose at home to Spurs today?
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Post by FullerMagic on Mar 11, 2018 15:19:14 GMT
Based on: 1 - Home v Bottom 14 2 - Away v Bottom 14 3 - Home v Top 6 4 - Away v Top 6 (and assuming we get nothing tomorrow) Last 8 games: Stoke 27 1 4 3 2 1 4 1 2 18C.Pal 27 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 14Soton 28 2 4 3 2 1 2 3 2 19WestH 30 1 4 1 4 3 2 1 3 19Hudds 31 1 2 2 1 4 1 4 3 17Swans 31 4 2 1 4 3 2 1 1 18Palace's run-in looks very kind, including the Baggies at home on the final day. So you'd think we'd have to be clear of them after 37 games to be in with a realistic sniff. Yes, I noticed Palace's last 6 games couldn't be easier if they chose them themselves. With Zaha back too I have factored them out of my calculations. Any chance Bournemouth could be dragged back in if they lose at home to Spurs today? Can't see Bournemouth being involved really. 33 points already banked (and a relatively decent GD) - with home games against WBA, Swansea and Palace to come. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/538's model gives them a 2% chance of relegation!
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Post by salopstick on Mar 11, 2018 15:30:17 GMT
Yes, I noticed Palace's last 6 games couldn't be easier if they chose them themselves. With Zaha back too I have factored them out of my calculations. Any chance Bournemouth could be dragged back in if they lose at home to Spurs today? Can't see Bournemouth being involved really. 33 points already banked (and a relatively decent GD) - with home games against WBA, Swansea and Palace to come. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/538's model gives them a 2% chance of relegation! Based on those fixtures you’d want Bournemouth to go on a winning run
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Post by Gods on Mar 11, 2018 15:31:51 GMT
Yes, I noticed Palace's last 6 games couldn't be easier if they chose them themselves. With Zaha back too I have factored them out of my calculations. Any chance Bournemouth could be dragged back in if they lose at home to Spurs today? Can't see Bournemouth being involved really. 33 points already banked (and a relatively decent GD) - with home games against WBA, Swansea and Palace to come. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/538's model gives them a 2% chance of relegation! Good to see us at a solid 58% chance of going down on that model! I'm trying to think what a 58% chance of something happening really feels like, what it really means? It's kind of more likely to happen than not but very far from certain!
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Post by eggyrocks on Mar 11, 2018 19:52:32 GMT
5 points in the next 5 and there's a fighting chance after a fantastic weekend for Stoke. Next weekend is even more important with the game against Everton and Hudders v Palace. Can't decide what I'd rather happen. I think Palace will get out of it with their run of fixtures at the end but I can see Huddersfield playing Man City and Arsenal with nothing to play for at the end of the season and turning them over, so I think I'd rather them win and Stoke aim to be out of the relegation zone for the International Break (what a joke that is at this stage of the season).
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Post by scfcno1fan on Mar 11, 2018 20:33:43 GMT
Can’t see palace going down.
Have to hope Huddersfield and Swansea go on bad runs as I can see the others getting out of it.
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Post by FullerMagic on Mar 11, 2018 20:44:04 GMT
Southampton's run-in is horrible!
If they don't win that home game against Bournemouth, can't see them having a chance. That's their only remaining home game against a bottom 14 team.
west ham arsenal CHELSEA leicester BOURNEMOUTH everton swansea MAN CITY
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Mar 11, 2018 20:51:36 GMT
Doesn't matter about other teams run ins, we need to start winning games, something we seem incapable of doing. Swansea, Huddersfield and Newcastle have shown they can score and win. Nothing I've seen since Lambert has arrived suggests we are capable of similar.
Us, Southampton and WBA look favourites to go down
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Post by Gods on Mar 11, 2018 21:02:32 GMT
Doesn't matter about other teams run ins, we need to start winning games, something we seem incapable of doing. Swansea, Huddersfield and Newcastle have shown they can score and win. Nothing I've seen since Lambert has arrived suggests we are capable of similar. Us , Southampton and WBA look favourites to go downDon't know about 'look', we are. Stoke are 58% chance, Southampton 41% and WBA 98%. Next in line are West Ham 31%, Huddersfield 24% and Palace 23%. Swansea are 14% an no one else is really in the frame.
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Post by lordb on Mar 11, 2018 21:48:21 GMT
If we were all level on points and goal difference right now would fancy West Ham and Southampton to join West Bromwich Albion However we are behind. Need a win soon.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 21:56:28 GMT
Does anybody in the whole wide world or even outside of this world believe we can come away without defeat against Man City?
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Post by davejohnno1 on Mar 11, 2018 21:58:32 GMT
Does anybody in the whole wide world or even outside of this world believe we can come away without defeat against Man City? No but however much I try to tell myself that we'll get well and truly smashed a little voice inside my head keeps saying we can somehow fluke a 1-0 win.
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Post by countofmontecristo on Mar 11, 2018 22:05:58 GMT
Does anybody in the whole wide world or even outside of this world believe we can come away without defeat against Man City? It's possible in so far as it's not impossible....... and that is the tenuous micro-thread I'm clinging to!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2018 22:31:02 GMT
Crouchy to chest down a pass, turn and volley, 1-0....Pretty unlikely I know, that could NEVER happen...
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Post by Laughing Gravy on Mar 11, 2018 22:39:06 GMT
Does anybody in the whole wide world or even outside of this world believe we can come away without defeat against Man City? No but however much I try to tell myself that we'll get well and truly smashed a little voice inside my head keeps saying we can somehow fluke a 1-0 win. And that in a nutshell is a Stoke fan. Probably a footy fan generally but definitely a Stoke fan.
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Post by davers66 on Mar 12, 2018 13:00:18 GMT
I WAS THINKING ABOUT THIS AT THE WEEKEND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE REMAINING FIXTURES IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOST OF THE BOTTOM TEAMS PLAY EACH OTHER AT SOME STAGE BEFORE THE END OF THE SEASON. AND VISA VERSA THEY HAVE SOME TOUGH GAMES. FOR US WE HAVE TO CONCENTRATE ON SPECIFIC GAMES TO WIN AND LOOK TO 3 OTHER TEAMS TO CONTINUE BAD FORM SO WHEN WE PLAY THEM THEY ARE GENUINE 6 POINTERS - WEST HAM, SWANSEA AND C PALACE IF WE CAN PICK UP POINTS IN THE OTHER GAMES ITS BONUS. PROBLEM IS SWANSEA APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP. HUDDERSFIELD HAVE A NIGHTMARE LAST 4 GAMES BUT PLAY C PALACE NEXT SO I SUPPOSE YOU WANT THEM TO GO AND WIN THAT ONE. A LOT OF TWISTS LEFT IN THIS ONE AND NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM. I FEEL WE HAVE TO COME OUT OF THE NEXT 4 GAMES WITH 4 POINTS TO KEEP US IN WITH A CHANCE.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Mar 12, 2018 13:15:03 GMT
I WAS THINKING ABOUT THIS AT THE WEEKEND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE REMAINING FIXTURES IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MOST OF THE BOTTOM TEAMS PLAY EACH OTHER AT SOME STAGE BEFORE THE END OF THE SEASON. AND VISA VERSA THEY HAVE SOME TOUGH GAMES. FOR US WE HAVE TO CONCENTRATE ON SPECIFIC GAMES TO WIN AND LOOK TO 3 OTHER TEAMS TO CONTINUE BAD FORM SO WHEN WE PLAY THEM THEY ARE GENUINE 6 POINTERS - WEST HAM, SWANSEA AND C PALACE IF WE CAN PICK UP POINTS IN THE OTHER GAMES ITS BONUS. PROBLEM IS SWANSEA APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP. HUDDERSFIELD HAVE A NIGHTMARE LAST 4 GAMES BUT PLAY C PALACE NEXT SO I SUPPOSE YOU WANT THEM TO GO AND WIN THAT ONE. A LOT OF TWISTS LEFT IN THIS ONE AND NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM. I FEEL WE HAVE TO COME OUT OF THE NEXT 4 GAMES WITH 4 POINTS TO KEEP US IN WITH A CHANCE.
YOU WERE OBVIOUSLY THINKING VERY HARD ABOUT IT
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Post by tachyon on Mar 15, 2018 10:05:56 GMT
The Everton game is a potential tipping point. If we win our likely chance of relegation falls to around 36% Draw and we end up slightly worse than we are now at 56%. (The current most optimistic bookie has us around 54%) Lose and we are likely to hit around 67% to drop to the Championship. For those who prefer to avoid numbers, in a recent poll a 36% chance was perceived as being best described as "probably not", "unlikely" or "we doubt". 56% was perceived as "about even" and 67% equated to "probably", "we believe", or "very good chance".
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Post by skelman on Mar 15, 2018 10:23:37 GMT
I've got us safe by the skin of our teeth still! Squeaky bum in the extreme though
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Post by cheekycheddleton on Mar 15, 2018 11:32:25 GMT
to many draws. us palace west brom down
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Post by tuum on Mar 15, 2018 12:07:49 GMT
Part of my day job is to model football matches from play by play data and use those models to make match & season long predictions. You can only make projections based on the likelihood, rather than the certainty of events happening. On Saturday, it's generally accepted that Stoke have around a 44% chance of beating Brighton. (My model and the bookmaker's odds concur). So the most likely single outcome is a Stoke victory, but it is slightly more likely (56%) that Stoke will win either one or zero points. The same probabilistic assessment can be made for every other Premier League game being played this weekend and every game due to be played until the end of the season. You can simulate the remainder of the season using these derived match probabilities and a random number generator to produce actual match outcomes. Points "won" in these virtual matches can then be bolted onto the current actual points won/goals scored etc to simulate a final table. The powerful aspect of this approach is that the process can be repeated thousands of times to create a range of possible scenarios, along with how likely each scenario is to occur. I've just run 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and Stoke go down in 4,400 of these simulations. So the chance of us getting relegated prior to the Brighton match has around the same likelihood of us winning the Brighton match. In short, prior to Saturday, we are a slightly biased coin flip to survive. Such simulation can help to answer other questions. The most likely final points total won by the 18th placed side is currently 35 points (23%), centered around a low of 31 and a high of 39. That's not quite our survival target though, because our goal difference is poor and in many of those scenarios we already finish in the bottom three, so aiming to beat the survival cutoff point for that single simulation merely improves our final position, but still leaves us in 18th spot. It some simulations, we gain a maximum of 39 points.....but are still relegated and conversely we very occasionally stay up with just 33 points. Our most common survival total is 38 points and our most common relegation points total in these simulations is 34. There are nine teams currently with double digit likelihoods of being relegated. WBA, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle, Southampton, Palace, WHU, Brighton and ourselves. We play five such sides in the run in, Swansea play six and WHU just three. Such games are viewed as "6 pointers". It is preferable, given the choice of one win from two games to defeat Brighton and lose to say Man City, rather than vice versa. Unsurprisingly, if we took zero points from these five relegation six pointers, we are relegated in 97% of such scenarios. If we improve to take five points from these five games, out survival rate is still only 40% and it is only when we take six or more points from a possible 15 that we become more likely than not to stay in the Premier League. We survive 80% of the time we take nine points from our rivals and 11 or more points from these games all but ensures survival. I'll try to up date these projections as the probabilities collapse to actual results. In addition to the "Like" "Dislike" buttons at the top of the page, we should also have a "I Don't Understand" button or "WTF" for short.
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Post by robwahlmann on Mar 15, 2018 12:12:23 GMT
I've said it all along that we need to win at home against Everton, Burnley and Palce and at least get two points from West Ham and Swansea away. If we can do this we'll end on 38 points which should be enough to stay up. At least I still hope this can happen, but if we don't beat Everton this Saturday my curtain will come down I'm afraid!
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Post by tachyon on Mar 15, 2018 12:54:59 GMT
In addition to the "Like" "Dislike" buttons at the top of the page, we should also have a "I Don't Understand" button or "WTF" for short. which bits are you struggling with?
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Post by mrcoke on Mar 15, 2018 13:20:34 GMT
A naive question:
What difference does Mark Hughes appointment at Southampton make to the relegation maths. or does the model take no account of such human factors?
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Post by lordb on Mar 15, 2018 13:29:05 GMT
A naive question: What difference does Mark Hughes appointment at Southampton make to the relegation maths. or does the model take no account of such human factors? it's not accounting for human factors
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Post by tachyon on Mar 15, 2018 14:14:24 GMT
A naive question: What difference does Mark Hughes appointment at Southampton make to the relegation maths. or does the model take no account of such human factors? Most managers get sacked because their side's performance levels have been below expectations *and* they've been a bit unlucky. The performance levels tends to persist after a new manager is appointed, but the luck tends to become less extreme. So there often appears to be a "new manager" bounce. Our model uses underlying performance indicators, rather than just goals and results and therefore our ratings aren't excessively influenced by random runs of luck, good or bad. Bottom line, we have accounted for Pellegrino's sacking & Hughes' appointment.
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Post by Dr Hesham on Mar 15, 2018 19:07:37 GMT
A naive question: What difference does Mark Hughes appointment at Southampton make to the relegation maths. or does the model take no account of such human factors? I am not a fan for Hughes but I think he will keep them in PL.
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