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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 17, 2022 19:53:14 GMT
I'm on the verge of getting to the age where it appears that the lids on sauce jars are nuclearly fused on.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 15, 2022 21:57:58 GMT
Anyone still not turned on the heating? 😁 Mine is fucking on!!! Still set at 14 but when it pops on I’m leaving it on and even cranking it up to a tropical 17 if I’m feeling fruity! Pretty much doing the same. We don't have a thermostat, so we work on the principle that it should be just warm enough not to need to put a coat on.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 12, 2022 17:01:56 GMT
I see the Belgium police waited for their team to get home from Qatar first.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 8, 2022 10:03:42 GMT
This is important work, well done.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 5, 2022 7:49:51 GMT
I struggle to see anything more than a Korean Penisular style ceasefire, with Ukraine taking back the annexed regions, except Crimea. I just can't see Ukraine getting the equipment needed to take Crimea back, as the Russians will defend it at all costs.
Any talk of "NATO Neutrality" is bollocks, as it was not the reason for the invasion and Ukraine will now be militarised for at least a generation.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Dec 1, 2022 7:17:08 GMT
An update by John Parshall.
Ukraine Update. Normal disclaimer: WW2 historian using analogs from that war to explore this one. What do I want to talk about today? Two things: First, what is the point of the fighting in Bakhmut? And second, the long-term sustainability of the current artillery war (parts of which it looks like I was wrong about.)
There hasn't been a lot of movement on the lines recently, and my sense is that Ukraine is continuing to shape the battlefield and wait for the ground to freeze before doing... whatever it's gonna be doing. But those of you who have subs to the New York Times will have noticed an article there in the past couple days talking about the very heavy ongoing fighting around Bakhmut. It has become a case study in the Russians using recently-mobilized conscript fodder to assault dug-in Ukrainian defenses, and the result has been a sort of mini-version of WWI-style trench warfare.
From Ukraine's perspective, holding Bakhmut makes a great deal of sense. Clearly, if you have an opportunity to establish wildly asymmetrical casualty returns because the other guy insists on frontally attacking some of the most elaborately prepared, and well-established defensive systems in your entire country, well, logically speaking you should afford your hated enemy all the head-bashing opportunities he desires. Be my guest.
The Russian logic, though, is far less clear. Understand--and with all due respect to the (formerly, I'm sure) lovely small city of Bakhmut--it is Nowheresville strategically. Yeah, there's a railway running through it, but it's not a major communications node, or port, or river crossing, or something like that. It theoretically gives access to the more important towns of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk to the northwest. But the Russians lost any possibility of developing a larger pincer attack aimed at enveloping Ukraine's position in the Donbas when they lost the much more important rail hubs of Izyum and (especially) Lyman during the Kharkiv counteroffensive back in September. So, honestly, Bakhmut no longer fits into any sort of strategic whole. Or, put another way, it simply ain't worth the number of Russian lives they're throwing away to secure gains that are being measured in yards. So wtf is going on here?
My sense is there are a number of factors at work. First, Bakhmut is closely associated with alleged human being Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his Wagner PMC band of thugs and assorted criminals. Prigozhin is pretty obviously building his own political power base inside Russia and positioning himself in case anything... unfortunate... should befall a certain guy whose last name also starts with 'P'. So, it would behoove Prigozhin to have his name associated with having taken Bakhmut.
Putin, for his part, may be becoming more wary of Prigozhin (as well he should). But he is also somewhat behold to him, because Wagner has at least been making incremental gains. The bottom line is that Putin is *desperate* for something, *anything,* that smells even faintly like "victory(tm)" to offset the recent humiliations of Kharkiv and (particularly) Kherson.
As such, this battle seems to have taken on a self-fulfilling symbolic life of its own, one that transcends strategy or logic. It has some echoes of Stalingrad, where one dictator wanted the place because it was the consolation prize for a failed summer campaign that had not bagged the oil fields in the Caucasus, and the *other* dictator kinda couldn't afford to give it up, because his name was quite literally 'on the box.' Bakhmut is 'vital' to Putin because, well, he's been fighting for it for months and visibly hasn't gotten it yet. And having expended this many lives for it, well, sunk cost be damned.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, beyond simply wanting to bleed the Russians dry, also want to prove that it doesn't matter what the Russians throw at them, that they're simply better than their enemy, and they can hold the place. The result is what one British newspaper just recently labeled 'the new Passchendaele', complete with trench foot, mud, mass slaughter, and artillery-generated moonscapes.
Generating those moonscapes is chewing up a lot of arty ammo. And here's a sobering thing that a number of you may have also seen recently in the New York Times: the looming possibility of a 155mm shell shortage. Honestly, I didn't think this was possible. You'll remember me opining several months ago that once we had switched Ukraine over to NATO-standard 155mm arty systems, that the magic NATO logistical carpet would then supply them effortlessly from the essentially endless river of NATO shells. Turns out that that was perhaps over-optimistic (i.e. I was wrong). In fact, the Ukrainians are chewing through so many 155mm shells (up to 4000 a day) that 1) they're wearing out the barrels of their shiny new howitzers in record time, and 2) NATO is scrambling to figure out how to generate a long-term sustainable supply of shells. Item #1 is a problem, but it can be dealt with by depots in Poland. Artillery systems are built to have barrels either completely changed out or re-lined, or whatever. That's a known issue, and it appears we're keeping up with demand--probably by giving the Ukrainians more of *our* barrels, because we can take the time to then refurb them on our end.
Shells, though, is starting to look more problematic, because some people are saying that it may take 4-5 *years* to increase production to sufficient levels. My MBA is in Operations Management, and I take a keen interest in manufacturing and economic history in my WWII writings. On the face of it, that figure of 4-5 years to turn up the spigot just seems... wrong. I mean, yeah, I grant that even a modern 155mm "dumb" shell is a little more sophisticated than the stuff Grandpa was using in WWII. And so increasing production may require more sophisticated components, and blah blah blah. But 4-5 years? Really?!? I don't really buy it, honestly.
I could be wrong, but to me, this smells like one of those issues that if you're willing to throw enough money and ingenious people at the problem, you ought to be able to solve it a lot more quickly. I mean, maybe make Elon Musk go sleep on some General Dynamics shell factory floor somewhere and get that shit sorted out, so that he can finally do something more meaningful with his precious time other than trying to pretend he's slinging code at Twitter, k? Or just send a genuinely good manager instead. I dunno. And again, I could be totally wrong and just not understand the underlying complexity. But since it's clear that we're going to have to massively increase NATO shell stocks across the board anyway, well, now is probably a good time to solve this problem. It's not like there aren't a large number of NATO countries that *all* manufacture these things, fer cryin' out loud. Plus, South Korea is 1) also a major shell manufacturer and 2) has a vested interest in selling a crapton of ammo to go along with the hundreds of K-9 155mm self-propelled arty systems that they've just sold to Poland. So I dunno. But I do know we've got to get it sorted. So put your heads together, oh Merchants of Death(tm)! Sheesh! What do we pay you for?!?
The good news here is that the Russians are likely in just as bad, or even worse, shape than we are. Russian ammo expenditures were *phenomenally* heavy this summer, before tapering way down more recently. Think they've got problems with barrel wear on their end? Jeebus. Plus, there are reports that nearly 20% of Russian shells are just plain duds, likely due to crappy manufacturinng and/or equally crappy storage practices. Judging from what we've seen of Russian armor, I think the latter is certainly quite likely.
Furthermore, there are reports that the Russians have been forced to buy arty shells from North Korea, a country whose own manufacturing standards aren't exactly, shall we say, Six Sigma. Want to guess which shells the NKs are shoveling onto those Russian trains? Think that maybe their oldest, crappiest stocks are going to be showing up in UKR soon? That's my bet. Want to guess what *their* dud rate will be? Were those 50-year old munitions (or more!) stored in climate-controlled warehouses and meticulously maintained during their lifetime? If your answer was 'Yes', I have some real estate in Brooklyn I'd like to talk to you about...
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 30, 2022 20:01:49 GMT
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 30, 2022 19:56:13 GMT
Hugely underrated talent.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 18, 2022 11:05:20 GMT
What a daft question, it`s not a book club where you pay subs and you`re in I know that. It was abstract thinking. What would happen if Russia were a part of Nato??? I got a strong feeling a lot of the reason they feel they're bullied is they're excluded. Quick history lesson; The whole point of NATO is that it is a coalition against initially the Soviet Union and more latterly against Russian aggression. Other people will hold a different view on that subject, but put overly simply, NATO is the enemy of Russia and vice versa.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 16, 2022 20:40:40 GMT
I look forward to more studies by the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, published by Rupert Murdoch without any attempt to inform readers about the political leanings of the lobby group.
Using articles like that is just the same as the avalanche of memes that Huddy throws at us in the hope that some of them might be correct.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 16, 2022 18:19:56 GMT
Trumps already suggesting he will reveal personal details if Desantis stands - tantamount to blackmail. Hopefully Desantis can fight fire with fire, it'll get messy, and hopefully whoever the democrats put up will stuff them. One would hope DeSantis has just as much dirt on Trump. It does go to show that Trump simply cannot accept his time has come and is resorting to total desperation which is a shame...He needs to go gracefully but that won't happen. There is also another scenario that could unfold whereby Trump goes independent and splits the vote - Not out of the question. What on Earth could DeSantis have on Trump that is more damaging than what Trump has openly done since before he was elected? The guy has rewritten the rule book about probity in office, sexual misconduct, tax evasion/false accounting, inappropriate conduct with foreign powers etc.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 14, 2022 21:13:17 GMT
I finally relented and put the heating on tonight, at least I smashed my end of October target.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 13, 2022 21:57:28 GMT
Interlagos rarely disappoints.
Good to see Max demonstrating just how much of a complete twat he is, too.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 13, 2022 11:27:48 GMT
I've lost count of how many times I've written Trump off.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 6, 2022 19:04:13 GMT
It's been down hill since being awarded my length certificate. I touched the bottom before I reached the end, too. I see what you did there ... I think! I actually tried not to write that without a double meaning, but largely failed.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Nov 5, 2022 22:12:12 GMT
It's been down hill since being awarded my length certificate. I touched the bottom before I reached the end, too.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 31, 2022 21:22:26 GMT
I think you've hit the nail on the head there, Red Bull is quite unlike any other F1 team in that the parent company's marketing ethos is about being on the edge. Teams like Mercedes, Alpine and to a slightly lesser extent, Ferrari & McClaren can suffer reputational damage if caught cheating, whereas I doubt Red Bull would suffer in the same way. The other difference is that Red Bull Racing (and the other connected companies) up until last week were the personal plaything of the late Dietrich Mateschitz, and it remains to be seen how Red Bull as a drinks manufacturer with change as it inevitably becomes more corporate. I harbour suspicions that the Porsche deal fell over when they demanded equal control of Red Bull Racing. Horner is on record as saying that such an arrangement would slow the decision making process down, which can also be interpreted that some Red Bull decisions might not go down well on a corporate level. Perhaps some punishment that leaves a bruise is in order. I don't know what is in the books now and who votes on rules, etc. so let my ignorance shine, but maybe you double the amount a team spent over the cap (with a required minimum amount--even if it's a penny) and subtract that off next season's spending cap for that team. If they do it again, triple the penalty for the following season's cap. Do it three times and your team and drivers will be out of the running for two seasons. Is this a harsh penalty or even reasonable? Don't know, and there's no doubt some may find it still worth the effort to cheat and hope to not get caught. Meanwhile, you are probably correct thinking once Red Bull's brand gets tarnished, it may solve this unless those customers and sponsors love that sort of thing. It's a difficult one to get right as it's a very complicated matter, for instance, if Red Bull had a competent person in charge of their finances, approx $1.8m of their overspend could have been accounted for differently (and legitimately), bringing the overspend down to about $400k. $400k is not nothing, but it's a lot better than $1.8m, and the punishment they received, feels like $400k worth, rather than $1.8m. The $7m fine should have resulted in a corresponding reduction in next year's budget (or at least $1.8m).
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 31, 2022 9:49:35 GMT
That's taken the wind out of Bianco's sails...there was a thread just sitting there waiting to be started... Given the ease and grace with which populists like Trump and Bolsanaro usually accept their defeats, I wonder if we can expect some kind of insurrection or even military intervention? I'll be more surprised if there's a peaceful transition.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 31, 2022 9:43:43 GMT
I have no doubt that you are right, the difference here is that when a team is caught breaking the rules, they are not sanctimonious about it and they don't play the victim card. I don't know how you fix such things if a team's culture is such. Would a profound punishment change anything? I think you've hit the nail on the head there, Red Bull is quite unlike any other F1 team in that the parent company's marketing ethos is about being on the edge. Teams like Mercedes, Alpine and to a slightly lesser extent, Ferrari & McClaren can suffer reputational damage if caught cheating, whereas I doubt Red Bull would suffer in the same way. The other difference is that Red Bull Racing (and the other connected companies) up until last week were the personal plaything of the late Dietrich Mateschitz, and it remains to be seen how Red Bull as a drinks manufacturer with change as it inevitably becomes more corporate. I harbour suspicions that the Porsche deal fell over when they demanded equal control of Red Bull Racing. Horner is on record as saying that such an arrangement would slow the decision making process down, which can also be interpreted that some Red Bull decisions might not go down well on a corporate level.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 30, 2022 6:15:11 GMT
^ I have a friend who races karts and used to drag race and he always said everyone/team cheats, just some better than others. I guess it's just part of the game no matter what level. I have no doubt that you are right, the difference here is that when a team is caught breaking the rules, they are not sanctimonious about it and they don't play the victim card.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 29, 2022 18:19:56 GMT
Horner: "I think Max did absolutely nothing wrong last year. He won the race fair and square, as a team we performed out of our skin to break the domination of one team that has dominated in the last seven years, nothing can diminish from what he did last year and that's obviously backed up again in 2022." Erm...whether you performed out of your skin or not, you cheated to break the domination. I kind of agree on Verstappen, although there were a couple of stupid incidents on his part. I actually think he believes what he says, and lives within the Red Bull reality distortion field. I hate it when cheats win, and get away with it.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 29, 2022 6:22:59 GMT
I watched the Netflix documentary and it’s way better than the actual sport. F1 should have a very big problem with that being the case. I’ve tried to watch it on the back of the documentary but it’s so dull. As an old school F1 veteran, people that complain about the sport being dull after watching it on Netflix, turn me into boomer. I guess it's no different to "real football fans" having a go at glory hunting plastic fans.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 28, 2022 21:46:32 GMT
I wish I could say I am shocked by the pathetic level of punishment. Mercedes should run #8 on Hamilton's car.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 24, 2022 20:40:34 GMT
I really don't want to go down this rabbit hole, but if you want to gauge the feeling of Hong Kongers towards China, then cast your mind back to 2019 when hundreds of thousands of ordinary people marched in protest at the new laws that China trying to (and later succeeded) on imposing on HK. It's my understanding from my friends in HK, that they were fine with China as long as China left them alone to get on with things. True independence was never a viable option. The protests were against a Law which could extradite people from HK to be tried in Mainland China. It was never enacted The Laws that were enacted in 2020 restricting assembly, protesting and making noise etc (Have a look at UK Policing Act currently going through Parliament for reference) were generally welcomed if not universally obviously Particularly the older generation who just wanted to get on with business without interruptions. I agree that the extradition Law was seen as a betrayal of the "One Country, two Systems" China agreed to maintain for 50 years after handover. Democracy and voting was never possible when a British Colony for 150+ years its now being used as a stick to beat China. Would I wish it were different yea but nothing is perfect Yeah, I mixed my laws up there. You will also know that the lack of public dissent is due to the draconian laws that effectively forbid protesting.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 24, 2022 19:17:03 GMT
There’s definitely an appetite to not be China though. And yet you've been asked twice for evidence and have failed to provide it other than "Chinese Whispers" I really don't want to go down this rabbit hole, but if you want to gauge the feeling of Hong Kongers towards China, then cast your mind back to 2019 when hundreds of thousands of ordinary people marched in protest at the new laws that China trying to (and later succeeded) on imposing on HK. It's my understanding from my friends in HK, that they were fine with China as long as China left them alone to get on with things. True independence was never a viable option.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 23, 2022 20:58:28 GMT
I haven't posted things I think are stupid, but this example was too good to pass up.: link. This nutter reckons Russia could sweep into Kyiv from Belarus, invade NATO from Kaliningrad and attack Ukraine all over. And that would somehow be a serious challenge for NATO. And this was published on a "serious* website. The army that's failed to hold anything more than ~70 miles from a railhead, has lost half its modern tanks, ruined its best infantry and used up most of its modern missiles is going to invade NATO from an area where it's been stripping soldiers and weapons? It seems seriously fucking stupid to me that this sort of shit gets published all over the place. No wonder people get freaked out all the time. EDOT: oh yeah and the country whose air force can't even cover a retreat less than 50 miles from its own border after its army got fucked up and routed by a bunch of madlads on hummvees. Lol. The Russian economy needs to be decimated otherwise I’d fear the lessons they’ve learned from this mauling will enable them to reconstruct a modern formidable army in the coming years. They could not make a modern army in the good times, so it's going to take a very long time before they get to the level that we incorrectly thought they were at the start of the war.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 17, 2022 8:33:17 GMT
There's a heatwave on the way, I'm currently quite confident about getting through October with the heating going on. Yep, hopefully the same here, just noticed the government has put £66 into the energy account The government are managing to raise my temperature even without handouts.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 17, 2022 6:37:39 GMT
There's a heatwave on the way, I'm currently quite confident about getting through October with the heating going on.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 12, 2022 18:46:08 GMT
I wonder how us, Nato and the US etc will view Belarus edging ever closer to joining the war on the side of the Russians? It's still my belief that Belarus will not open up a new front, and it's nothing more than a ruse to pull troops away from the South and East. I hope I'm right.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Oct 10, 2022 6:19:21 GMT
The FIA could be doing the incompetent referee trick today, by evening up the game now that Max has (fairly and deservedly this time) won the Championship.
It's a shit show either way as breaking the cost cap benefits a team more than in just one year.
The FIA is in such a state right now that even if they do something right, people will not trust their decisions.
It's also easy to blame the new guy at the top, as he has made things worse in terms of lack of transparency and downright condescending ineptitude, but the FIA have always been dodgy.
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