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Post by OldStokie on Nov 5, 2024 13:21:55 GMT
There's been enough gabbing on here abut it but who is going to win it? (I'm talking about being President rather than overall individual votes.) An Oatie brownie point for those getting it right. I'm going for Harris with a larger share than expected margin.  OS. |
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Post by wagsastokie on Nov 5, 2024 13:25:57 GMT
There's been enough gabbing on here abut it but who is going to win it. (I'm talking about being President rather that overall individual votes.) An Oatie brownie point for those getting it right. I'm going for Harris with a larger share than expected margin. OS. Im slightly favouring Harris With trump squealing like a stuck pig Wouldn’t be all that surprised if trump actually won it |
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Nov 5, 2024 13:26:25 GMT
Trump
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Post by OldStokie on Nov 5, 2024 13:28:31 GMT
There's been enough gabbing on here abut it but who is going to win it. (I'm talking about being President rather that overall individual votes.) An Oatie brownie point for those getting it right. I'm going for Harris with a larger share than expected margin. OS. Im slightly favouring Harris With trump squealing like a stuck pig Wouldn’t be all that surprised if trump actually won it Get off the fence Wags and choose ONE without prevarication! OS. |
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Post by Tom_stokiepmre89 on Nov 5, 2024 13:29:21 GMT
Harris to win the popular vote but lose.
(I have no idea how likely this is this time I just want to look clairvoyant if it happens)
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Post by Foster on Nov 5, 2024 13:33:11 GMT
Harris
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Post by salopstick on Nov 5, 2024 13:34:00 GMT
Trump has the momentum, slendor lead in the swing states, it could go anyway but the Biden administration was not popular and Harris is of that. Its such a divided country over so many issues.
The fact Trump is considered an idiot and hated by so many and is still with in the margins tells its own tale
the democrats took too long to get rid of Biden and Kamala was picked as a vote winner on the ticket as opposed future VP they have not had time or opportunity to put up a viable candidate to win. Maybe that was by design. Harris has not been tested in primaries
I think Trump will sneak it
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Post by lordb on Nov 5, 2024 13:37:45 GMT
Don't think I've ever seen so many political commentators and pollsters so reluctant to call it
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Post by Paul Spencer on Nov 5, 2024 13:46:32 GMT
Harris will win by a bigger margin than people are anticipating.
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Post by emretezzy on Nov 5, 2024 13:47:25 GMT
Betfair Exchange have Trump 1.62 which is near on certainty.
The clever money is saying Trump win.
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Post by emretezzy on Nov 5, 2024 13:49:59 GMT
Harris will win by a bigger margin than people are anticipating. [br Where are you Huddy and the gang partying? |
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Post by Tom_stokiepmre89 on Nov 5, 2024 13:58:18 GMT
Betfair Exchange have Trump 1.62 which is near on certainty. The clever money is saying Trump win. I could be wrong but I’m sure I’ve heard that people erroneously place way too much value on betting markets as a predictor; when in actuality betting markets move with betting volume and are not reliable predictors of probability. Eg; it could be that the people most likely to gamble are more likely to support trump/bet on trump. If this is the case then the clever money would actually be on harris at longer odds. |
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Post by tommycarlsberg on Nov 5, 2024 13:59:14 GMT
Having just spent a couple of weeks over there I'd be very surprised if it wasn't Trump who was victorious.
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Post by Gods on Nov 5, 2024 14:04:33 GMT
Trump.
While the margins have been closing the bookmakers still have 60% chance of a Trump win and 40% chance of Harris.
Traditionally the bookies do better predicting the result than the polls.
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Post by emretezzy on Nov 5, 2024 14:13:59 GMT
Betfair Exchange have Trump 1.62 which is near on certainty. The clever money is saying Trump win. I could be wrong but I’m sure I’ve heard that people erroneously place way too much value on betting markets as a predictor; when in actuality betting markets move with betting volume and are not reliable predictors of probability. Eg; it could be that the people most likely to gamble are more likely to support trump/bet on trump. If this is the case then the clever money would actually be on harris at longer odds. Betfair exchange is punter vs punter not a bookmaker. It's as accurate as any model for the US Election. |
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Post by wannabee on Nov 5, 2024 14:14:54 GMT
Harris to win Bigly 300/238
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Post by Paul Spencer on Nov 5, 2024 14:22:00 GMT
Harris to win Bigly 300/238 Yup, something in that region. |
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Post by Ariel Manto on Nov 5, 2024 14:39:43 GMT
You know that scene in movies where a car is heading towards a cliff and you can't tell if it's going to stop just in time or go over the edge and kill everyone inside and you can only watch helplessly and hope?
That's how it feels to be watching the US election for everyone else in the world outside the US.
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Post by superjw on Nov 5, 2024 14:44:29 GMT
Harris will win, I have this feeling that the stage is set for her - feels different than when it was Hillary.
Either way, it astounds me that these are the best the USA has to offer, a bit like Britain - politically things are such a mess
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Post by oggyoggy on Nov 5, 2024 14:46:21 GMT
Trump
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Post by musik on Nov 5, 2024 15:16:49 GMT
Dead Heat
Re-Election
In Sweden most of the discussion concerns the eventual degree of a coming civil war in the US of A.
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Post by adri2008 on Nov 5, 2024 15:17:54 GMT
Trump by a comfortable margin imo
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Post by lordb on Nov 5, 2024 15:20:58 GMT
Dead Heat Re-Election In Sweden most of the discussion concerns the eventual degree of a coming civil war. Civil war in the US? I don't see that,yet, but that country looks increasingly divided Road map to civil war I guess is there |
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Post by Tom_stokiepmre89 on Nov 5, 2024 15:25:43 GMT
I could be wrong but I’m sure I’ve heard that people erroneously place way too much value on betting markets as a predictor; when in actuality betting markets move with betting volume and are not reliable predictors of probability. Eg; it could be that the people most likely to gamble are more likely to support trump/bet on trump. If this is the case then the clever money would actually be on harris at longer odds. Betfair exchange is punter vs punter not a bookmaker. It's as accurate as any model for the US Election. Hmm apparently betting markets are actually more accurate than polls in predicting elections. However they can still be way off; both brexit and the 2016 US election were shocks based on betting markets. I’m not sure how betfairs’ model would mean it’s less fallible? But it might. Still could end up being wrong though? |
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Post by Mason_Stokie on Nov 5, 2024 15:29:16 GMT
Betfair Exchange have Trump 1.62 which is near on certainty. The clever money is saying Trump win. Trump was 1/50 when I went to bed last election night and lost... |
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Post by musik on Nov 5, 2024 16:32:43 GMT
On TV all day
🥱
It will be tough to stay awake.
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Post by flea79 on Nov 5, 2024 16:40:44 GMT
sadly Trump
although it could be worse and Harris could win
as much as i deplore Trump and his politics his lets make things happen on foreign policy are breath-taking at times, he managed to get Rocket man round a table last time, no sitting US president has ever met officially with a leader of the DPRK before Trump
would i rather Trump or Harris dealt with Russia, Trump all day
who is more likely to stop China marching into Taiwan, Trump
who will say stupid things and generally fuck up domestically, both of them
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Post by Gawa on Nov 5, 2024 16:43:12 GMT
Donald Trump with the biggest majority out of the last 3 elections.
(I don't support trump).
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Post by shakermaker on Nov 5, 2024 16:50:43 GMT
The fact Trump is considered an idiot and hated by so many and is still with in the margins tells its own tale. Likewise, considering most were declaring how hated Harris is and that the election was effectively over the moment she became the Democrat nominee, not to mention being black and a woman, it’s astonishing that she is taking this down to the wire. |
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Post by jimmygscfc1234 on Nov 5, 2024 16:54:26 GMT
Good grief, I'm even more confused now. Naughty lad Mick!
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